 What is crack-a-laden, everybody? Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcasts Network and NumberFire.com where today we are breaking down the DFS implications of the 2020 NFL draft and what it means for your early season lineups. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the managing editor for NumberFire, Brandon. We spoke for roughly nine to 10 hours Thursday and Friday breaking down the draft back here again to talk about it from a DFS perspective. How you doing? Good, I'm still a little fried. I don't do a whole lot of talking. I don't do a whole lot of socializing. So that was like, I was like going to like 10 parties, like a party every night or something for like two weeks. It was, it was a lot. I had to be like checked in. Usually my go-to state is to like check out of conversations until it's, and I can only imagine for you trying to host it. No, it's the exact same thing because like I check out of literally everything. Like when I'm talking to myself, like if I'm recording the solo shot, I have no idea what I say because it's just like I zone out, like you black out effectively. And I had to like pay attention at least partway to what you guys were saying for the whole time. And like that's no disrespect to you and JJ. Cause obviously you guys have. We know that. We've listened to each other. Yeah, yeah, exact. I've never listened to you. Are you talking right now? I can't confirm. But like, it's just like so weird for me to like, listen. I know that sounds so stupid to everyone out there, but like you literally do just kind of like black out at certain points. And it's not because of like, you just kind of like, you just kind of forget the things that are going on. I'm sure that made total and complete sense. I don't know. I mean, it makes sense to me. Maybe, maybe not everyone is like us, but it was tough cause I mean, I'm thinking like trying to look ahead to like who's picking. You're asking me questions about something that already happened. So I'm like, and obviously we're not the, you know, we're just not the kind of podcast or live stream or whatever where we're just spitting like takes. We want to have something relevant. You know, I'm just trying to like, you know, make sure that my market shares are adding up to a hundred. And so that, you know, whenever you're asking me about the equals market shares, I can say, here's what I have, but you know, it was hard to balance. I'm not complaining, but this is going to be a whole heck of a lot more fun. Plus. Yeah, because this is like, this is laid back. I have no data on my sheet. I think I'm just going to talk with you. Cause I don't like, we did enough data. We did enough talking. I want to have just a conversation with you effectively about what we can expect. The good news is this is about DFS, not dynasty. Yeah. And I think about, I think about things from a DFS standpoint, never dynasty. So I'm way more at home for this, this show than I was for the live stream. I sent you a dynasty offer this morning. I have not heard back definitively one way or another. So we'll need to circle back to that later on. Maybe this is, maybe I can come in to one way or another. Yeah, we'll figure this one out. I'll just slowly drop hints throughout that you should accept this trade. We're going to start things off here. We're going to go basically by different topics of conversation and discuss the impact of that. We're going to start things off with the running backs, take a look at some of the, the high impact wide receivers and then finish up with quarterbacks whose situations changed during the draft. Let's start things off here though with the running backs because I think a running back will have a better idea about what role each player will play as the season gets here. Cause you can look at things like Snappery with the starters during pre-season, et cetera, et cetera and kind of have an idea of what role each player will play. So things will obviously evolve as we get closer to the year, but as of right now, which of these rookie backs are you expecting to have the most immediate DFS appeal? I think the number one, at least from a sense of the change from pre-draft to post-draft is Kishan Vaughan for Tampa Bay. I think that's the clear sort of number one option. And especially if you're talking, you know, literal week one, I have two more guys who I'm, you know, wanted to highlight, but I think as it stands, Kishan Vaughan is the most likely locked in week one starter. We like Clyde Edwards, we like Jonathan Taylor, we like Cam Akers, but Kishan Vaughan should be the guy for Tampa Bay, especially just based on what else they have on this depth chart. Ronald Jones, I know you said, do you have no data? I have some data, not a ton, but a little bit. He's 18th last year among 24 qualified backs, 100 carries in rushing success rate, 21st and rushing net expected points per carry. So it's really more of a landing spot thing for Vaughan than it is necessarily his profile, but I think Vaughan has three down potential, had 14% of Vanderbilt's catches, which was the second highest rate in this running back class behind only, you know, Benjamin, who was up near 20%, but you know, I think week one, three down potential for Kishan Vaughan and what should be a good offense. Yeah, I think that he fits really well with what we look for, because if you are a regular key check listener, you know we really value passing down backs. We want guys, and not just passing down backs, I said that in a phrase, we value guys who get valuable touches. And in Tampa Bay's offense, you're better able to get valuable touches than you are a lot of other offenses because they don't really have a lot of holes. They got Tristan Worfs in the first round. I think that improves their offensive line, a pretty decent amount. You can plug them in at right tackle right away. Tom Brady's there, these high end receivers are there and maybe the receivers take away a little bit of target share from Kishan Vaughan, but the increase they bring in touchdown expectation because of how much the offense can move more than offsets that. So I think that Kishan Vaughan is a pretty good pick here. And I agree with you, you know, we'll talk about some of the other guys too, but the one guy I wanted to highlight was Cam Acres. And it's partly because I think the Rams decision making here and what they've done recently says what they think about Cam Acres. Because remember that the Rams didn't have a first round pick in this year's draft. They traded that away in the Jalen Ramsey trade, meaning their first pick was 52 overall. And they used that pick on Cam Acres. Last year when Todd Gurley was there, they wanted to conserve him, but Malcolm Brown and Daryl Henderson kinda sucked honestly and didn't let them ease Todd Gurley into a lower end workload. So I thought, I guess that they might stick with Brown and Henderson just because they had such little draft capital to spend at running back, but you know, they had the brand to cook straight after that and that kind of changed things. And they decided to use some of that limited capital on a running back in Cam Acres. And Acres is someone who profiles as a past catching back. The question is, will the Rams go back to targeting running backs in the passing game? Because that wasn't really a thing they did last year. But I think that based on their actions, they were displeased with Malcolm Brown and Daryl Henderson. He could move into a pretty legitimate role in what I still view as being a good offense. I could be wrong because I've been wrong about the Rams previously. But I think it's a good situation for him. So I think that from like a potentially undervalued perspective, Cam Acres is really, really interesting. Yeah, and I think for the Rams specifically, they might not be the best offense, but they're not one of these. They're not a bottom-dweller. Aggressively bad, you know. They're not the Jags. So that helps a lot. Don't. I know. I'm sorry. I got real worked up on the live stream, but. As worked up as you get, at least. Yeah, I don't show it outwardly. I don't react a lot. So I feel like some of the trade him to, I guess I was trying to think of a place that's just devoid of wide receiver towel, but I feel like every team is now loaded because of the draft. So we will send him to I'm scrolling here. I was going to say the Jags. So all right. I mean, I still think we'll be fine, like fine enough. But for Cam Acres, again, I like the landing spot, you know, as an offense, because I believe in the offense enough. And I don't, again, this is not one of those spots where it's like, yeah, there's going to be volume, but it's going, they're not going to score points. They're not going to follow a volume. It's almost like Levy on Bell, if you're out. However good you think Levy on Bell is, you might not think he's good, but all the volume doesn't always lead to anything fruitful for Cam Acres and their Rams. I think that'll be a little bit different. Obviously they, like you said, they felt they had a big need after getting rid of Todd Gurley. Cam Acres had a top four dominator rating for me among this running back class. He was my, he's my RB3 just based in my draft model when accounting for his draft equity, which doesn't account for a landing spot and immediate opportunity, but long-term outlook looks pretty good, but the short-term looks good as well. Above average speed score for him, Daryl Henderson, Malcolm Brown didn't really show enough last year, like you said. So going through and projecting out his year one market shares, I have him behind just Keyshawn Vaughn tied with Jonathan Taylor and kind of expected overall market share, which again, we're talking about week one guys, I think Cam Acres definitely deserves to get some attention here. I think that the, if we're looking at these rookie backs, the only one I'm not gonna include A.J. Dillon because it's a different subject, but like if we look at the top six guys, Clyde Edwards-Elair, Deandre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Acres, J.K. Dobbins and Keyshawn Vaughn, if we look at those six guys, the only one who I would be like actively very nervous about like week, if we're talking like DFS early season with J.K. Dobbins because we had a lot of discussions about Mark Ingram on this podcast last year and Ingram was never really someone we were super excited to use because if they got ahead, they wouldn't use him. He was basically only a factor in closer games and Mark Ingram is not gonna evaporate with J.K. Dobbins being there. I think there is a very real scenario where Dobbins becomes the 1A but Ingram will still be involved and Lamar Jackson can take away some goal line work too with his legs. So I have varying degrees of interest in all those guys but I think that Dobbins is the one guy who at least right away, I still like him a lot for like Dynasty Leagues but I think right away in DFS doesn't really fit what I'm looking for. Anyone else make that list for you? If you're gonna go with that perspective, you have to be more clear about what you expect for Clyde Edwards-Elair because it's a similar offense or similar situation where could be like a 1B type of back early on in a very good prolific offense but I think the bigger question then would be DeAndre Swift and how you value him relative to carry on Johnson in that split. So I would kind of put those guys in a similar tier and then I guess also Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack. So I don't know, what do you think about their perspective workloads? So I think that with Clyde Edwards-Elair going in the first round, it's kind of a game changer because that's a lot of draft capital and again, Andy Reed has never, I don't think spent a first round pick on a back. That's impactful and he also is, he and Swift are the two locks in this class to get really good passing down work. Now, whether or not the Lawlands decide to give Swift that type of action is a bigger debate but like you could in theory see situations where Damien Williams and Clyde Edwards-Elair are on the field at the exact same time because Edwards-Elair can split out wide, Damien did at times last year as well. So and the other thing too is you don't need a whole lot of juice in the chief's offense to pay off because we were using Damien, or at least I was, when he was averaging like 12 carries and five targets. I don't think it's super unrealistic that Clyde Edwards-Elair could get that early on. I agree with you that it's like, not as big of a lock as someone like KMakers or Keyshawn Vaughn but I could see it happening. Whereas at JK Dobbins, I'd be a little bit more reserved. So I think that's our match with Clyde Edwards-Elair. Yeah, I mean, it makes sense. The pass catching matters a ton for these backs. It's gonna be kind of a separator and we're gonna hopefully learn more. One thing you mentioned, I didn't want to ruin this segue, but if these guys play with the starters in the preseason, like we don't know what the preseason's going to look like. We don't know how big that sample is going to be. I'm sure they'll figure it out, but that's gonna be a little bit tricky. But yeah, for week one, I would have put like Edwards-Elair here but I would feel much more confident week one with Acres, Keyshawn Vaughn even Jonathan Taylor, I think. Yeah. What's Jonathan Taylor early? Because like Marlon Mack is there and he's a fine early down guy, but obviously they traded up to get Jonathan Taylor for a reason. And this is like a super smart organization. And I feel like they wouldn't, it's kind of similar to the way I view it with Clyde Edwards-Elair. Like I trust this organization and they still spent a lot of equity on it back. So I feel like Taylor's probably gonna have a very big early season role. I just feel a bit less certain in that than I do with some of my camp makers, I guess. Yeah, Taylor was third for me on this list of week one immediate impact guys just because we don't know the split that they'll have between Taylor and Marlon Mack. The funny thing is that Taylor accounted for 10.6% of Wisconsin's catches last year. Marlon Mack actually had a higher reception rate in his final year at South Florida, 13.5%, but we know that Marlon Mack just hasn't been a pass catcher. And I don't know if it's because he can't or because they just don't use him that way. So I was actually kind of surprised that it was Jonathan Taylor for the culture because he kind of comps somewhat similarly to Marlon Mack, kind of overall, but week one, I think Jonathan Taylor is gonna be definitely viable. And another thing to keep in the back of your minds is depending on what the off season looks like, these guys are gonna have less time with our teams. I think it's going to be a lot easier for running backs to come in and make an immediate contribution. Whereas with receivers, whether they're rookies or receivers joining new teams, there might be a bit of a lull there. So I think that if you're gonna play, if you're like, you know, for whatever reason you have to play a rookie in week one, it's gonna be a running back over a wide receiver. And I think the running backs were put into really good situations where we want them to. With Jonathan Taylor's pass catching, I think it's a question of, did Marlon Mack not get targets because Frank Reich's offense doesn't target running backs or was it Jacobi Berset? And I don't really know because even when Andrew Luck was there, they didn't give it to Mack a lot, but Naheem Hines got work. So will Jonathan Taylor get those Naheem Hines targets? Yes or no? That would go a long way towards deciding his value because he'll have really efficient rushing down work because he's like a world-class track star who is running behind the best offensive line of football. So he's gonna be really efficient as a rusher. Will he get work in the passing game? That's the question. I still think Deandre Switch is interesting because again, he has a good quarterback, competent offensive line, just a question of how much work he gets from Karrion Johnson. So although we didn't talk a lot about him, I think that it's worth mentioning that I'm still in on Deandre Swift. Just maybe you wanna be a bit more reserved with him. I'm willing to take more chances on Clyde Edwards-Elaire and Jonathan Taylor because of the offenses they're in, than I am on someone like Deandre Swift. I think that's an important differentiation to make. The sports world continues to be at a stand still, but FanDuel is giving you an opportunity to win from home with their free props pick'em contest. All you have to do is correctly pick five props every day and go at least 25 out of 35 over the course of the week to split the $2,500 weekly payout. Then get back in on the action the next week. It is that easy. Agent location, restrictions apply, no purchase necessary, void where prohibited, and for more details, check out the banner in the FanDuel Lobby. Let's move now and take a look at some of these wide receivers starting off with the one I liked personally, the most before the draft, that was CD-Lam. And I liked CD-Lam because he was really fun to watch in college, which is a good, that's basically my scouting process. Was this guy fun? Yes, I like him. That was my scouting process with CD-Lam. He goes to Dallas. Obviously, Brandon, this is good for Dak Prescott. What does it do for you at the past catchers? Yeah, CD-Lam was my number one. Coming into the draft, you know, long-term, he'd still be my number one receiver, but for the short term, it sucks. Like for year one, it's just, I mean, and it's not even like terrible because he's gonna be at worst their third past catcher. He's still projected to have, or he was gonna be projected to have like, huge for a rookie target share for me. I was ready to plug him in for like, 19, almost 20% and like, if you went to an offense where they really needed past catchers. Like if he had gone to Oakland. I was gonna say, if you went to Oakland, I was like 20% probably to start and then maybe bump it up from there. But right now, I don't know what that's gonna look like exactly last year for Context. Michael Gallip had, and this doesn't adjust for Games Mist or anything, but 21% of the team's targets in games that he played, I should say. So just doesn't look at any specific sample if there were relevant injuries here. But Mario Cooper, 21% or 20% of the targets, Gallip again, 21%, Randall Cobb, 16%. So I think that there are still reasons that, Gallip, Cooper and now CD-Lam see pretty decent target shares, but just nothing elite. My initial projections for them right now, 22% for Cooper, 20% for Gallip, 16% for CD-Lam. So in a situation, I think like Dallas, it's less about will there be the targets and more because we're looking at this from a daily fantasy standpoint, it's like who's the guy this week, right? And I think that's gonna be the biggest headache with this team. Obviously Cooper is gonna be near the top. We love Michael Gallip or our pro Michael Gallip podcast for sure, but it just could be kind of like, we could be finding ourselves pounding our heads on the wall, trying to figure out which of the three it is that we, Lam himself had a really high A-Dot, which is he had a top 100 rate among like high volume guys in college, Mario Cooper, Michael Gallip both had like high A-Dots as well. So for Dak, this should be great. I'm gonna use Dak plenty. I think the differentiation is like Dak and cash games where you don't necessarily have to hit the right stack, but for tournaments, I just anticipate a lot of frustration. What about you? It's multi-entry. Yeah. You just multi-entry. It's the same lineup and soft amount. Yeah, looking back at last year, I did try to like account for games where people were kind of banged up. And if you take out the time where Zeke was coming back from that contract holdout, so essentially taking out the first four games and a couple other games throughout, Cooper was at 23%, Gallip was at 22%, Randall Cobb was at 15%, and Zeke was at 12%. And those are like actually pretty good numbers if you're trying to be optimistic about the Dallas Cowboys offense. The only thing too that I think is really interesting is like two years ago, it was September of 2018, Jerry Jones said that he thought the Cowboys offense resembled the Rams. And it was very stupid at the time because the Rams were one of the best offenses in football at that time. Jerry Golf was the top five passer that year by net expected points. And that was before Amara Cooper was there. Like their number two wideout was Cole Beasley. But they've added Amara Cooper. Now they've added CD-Lam. Dak Prescott has taken advantage of those new weapons and ascended to a new level. And I think that's actually a fair comparison, potentially even better than those like that 2017, 2018 Rams run. Because I think Dak's better, I think the wide receivers are better than what the Rams had. So like, I think they're legitimately better. And the Rams offense those years was able to support three legitimate fantasy options with depending on what year, Cooper Cup, Robert Woods, and then Brandon Cook slash Sammy Watkins, weirdly. And Todd Gurley still got some work as a receiver then too. So I think if you are hoping to use a Cowboys and DFS, you're kind of hoping that they go the route of the Rams where they just use that same person now. That can get really stagnant and it can eventually die out as the Rams found out. But when you've got players as talented as Cooper, Gallup, and Lam, probably not a bad idea to just keep them on the field and let it rip. So I think that's the best case scenario. Worst case scenario is things are super spread out. That can still be okay because the offense will be so efficient and they'll score so many touchdowns. But like you said, it could lead to a headache scenario for tournaments where you guess wrong, nail everything else in your lineup and you're kind of wondering what if. So hopefully they wind up being the 2017, 2018 Rams. But I understand, I think that it's good to have some reservations there. Yeah, I mean, I think it's great for Dak. Like that's number one. Like Dak is, it's Lamar, Lamar Mahomes Dak. I feel like our kind of, if Dak ran a little bit more, he might be like the QB one, but I think he's in that top tier, right? Yeah, I think it's those three. We don't know how, you know, we don't need to get into it, but like Lamar might not run as much. He's going to regress a little bit just naturally, but Dak is in such a good spot. So this is probably going to be one of those offenses where the target shares are pretty concentrated and that's, that happens in certain offenses. Kind of like the Chargers, we'll talk about them in a little bit, but the Chargers were basically, you know, when everyone was healthy, Keenan Allen, about 25% and then Mike Williams and Hunter Henry, like 18% or so, that's a, like that's realistic and that's probably what we're going to get here, but we're not going to see anyone up near 30%. And the week to week spikes could be pretty volatile, but it'll be worth it, I think, to chase this offense. Yeah, we want to chase sub optimal situations when the payoff is huge. The payoff could be huge in an offense is good. Hopefully their defense sucks too, so we can get some high scoring gains. And like they didn't really do a ton to address defense. So maybe we get that situation. Let's just hope it does happen. Let's move here to the guy who is actually the number one Widercy were picked. That's Henry Ruggs going to the Las Vegas Raiders. I didn't flub it this time, let's boogie. The biggest question that I had from this brand because it wasn't just Henry Ruggs, it was also Brian Edwards, it was Lynn Bowden Jr. who was apparently going to be a running back for them initially. But the biggest question I had here is can we now use Derek Carr in DFS, something I can honestly say I don't remember the last time I did? Yeah, I don't know if I used him last year. There was a game where he was chalk against the cheese and I don't think I used him there, but that'd be the one week where I could maybe have considered it. I was gonna say, I think I did sneak him in for like cash games as like a floor play, but there was not a ceiling to Derek Carr last year. He had one game with more than 300 yards, one game with more than two passing touchdowns. I think we'll be more able to use Derek Carr, but we just talked about stacking being problematic with the Cowboys, but that's more like someone's probably gonna have a good game, which one is it, did you guess right? With the Raiders, their target share is still projected to be pretty bad, like pretty low across the board and that's problematic. I think with Henry Ruggs, the speed there is gonna be a super important for Derek Carr. It's gonna help out a lot. And yeah, we know that Derek Carr doesn't throw the ball down the field. A ton, he's got a low A-dot. Was actually 34th in downfield attempt rate among 42 qualified passers last year, but 13th in a dress of yards per attempt on downfield throws. So it's not like he can't succeed throwing the ball down the field. So I'm more open to using Derek Carr, but I don't know how I feel about their individual pass catchers. So what do you see there? Yeah, I think that Darren Waller could be okay, but the problem is we talked about this in the stream too. The only weeks where he was really good for fantasy are the weeks where people were hurt. When Hunter Renfrow broke his lung or whatever it was, that's not something that you can physically do, but whenever his lung exploded because football was a terrible sport. You had another good fake injury. Or just like a camera. Exploded lung. What was it? Exploded lung? Maybe, yeah. Yeah, when Hunter Renfrow was out, that's when Darren Waller had a ton of usage or early in the year before Renfrow had a bigger role too. And when Tyra Williamson, that was when Waller had a lot of usage. I could see his usage being bad. The thing with Henry Ruggs that makes me okay with him is that you don't need as much volume to pay off when you have as much yak ability as Henry Ruggs has. We saw this a lot with the 49ers. And we talked about Ruggs like a deep threat, but when you watching Madal Bama, I was trying to watch Tua, and there was a slant against some actually good team where he threw it to Ruggs 10 yards downfield and Ruggs just put on the jets and he was gone. And that's kind of what you want is someone who can score in multiple ways. And Henry Ruggs has that. So he doesn't need a ton of volume to be DFS viable. I'm just not sure if he'll get to that threshold even because his value in football stems a lot more than just getting the football. I think that one interesting fallout here outside of Derek Carr is the fact that they're calling Lynn Bowden Jr. running back. And it's not because I think that it will hurt Josh Jacobs in early downs. My hope heading into this year was that Josh Jacobs would get work as a pass catcher more and it's something that they've said that they wanna do. But Lynn Bowden is awesome, he's really fun and they want to train him as a running back and then allow him to do other stuff after that. That's a little bit concerning for me if we're trying to project Josh Jacobs to get a spike in targets. I still think he'll get more this year than he did last year because that shoulder injury seems to really nag but it makes me question it more than it should. So I think it's arrows up for Derek Carr a bit and then potentially muted enthusiasm for Josh Jacobs is the way I'd phrase it. Yeah, I remember last year when we talked about on the podcast that Darren Waller's target shares probably gonna go back down when Hunter Renfrow came back and someone thought we were crazy. But like- I got really mad about it for some reason. Yeah, they thought we were really stupid and I'm definitely not the smartest guy in the room, but- Let me pull up that game log actually, you talk, I'll pull this up. But I knew what game it was. That was what we saw with the Raiders and the target shares were just low when they were healthy and I mean, say what you want, but they got Nelson Aguilar in the mix. They're like, we don't know what Tyrell Williams is going to do, but the market shares are going to be pretty dispersed based on what we've seen in the past from them. And I'm actually surprised that you seem to be a little bit high on Henry Ruggs because I've liked some low volume explosive receivers and you don't typically seem to like them as much, so I'm surprised- Can you give me an example? Because I've had a changing of mind here over the past years. So weirdly, the offense isn't as good, but Terry McLaurin. Oh, it's because I hated the offense. I know, but- Because like he'd get a punch in the air yards between Haskins was chucking in the seats, it didn't matter. But like he could catch a slant and house it. I'm very excited for Terry McLaurin long term. Sure, let's say draft Trevor Lawrence. Sure. I'm just kidding. I like to win Haskins. I revoke it. Don't hurt me. I found the Darren Waller game. It was against the Chargers on December 22nd. That was when Renfrow came back from his, I don't know, whatever happened to his lung. Literally something happened to his lung because football is terrible. In that game, Darren Waller lit it up, four catches, 37 yards, no tutties. That was his second lowest yardage output of the year. So suck at Twitter. But I think with a guy like Ruggs, if it's gonna be low users, I want that low used to come from a good quarterback and car had good efficiency numbers last year. So I'm more willing to trust him. So I think then someone like McLaurin. I'm hoping- The McLaurin thing was because they ran an archaic offense that wanted to run the football 90 times and was bad when they did throw. There were more things there. Yeah, yeah, but I hope you're okay with like these riskier dice roll players because that's gonna make the heat check even more fun. When they're at home and slight dogs, I'll have Henry Ruggs. I can guarantee you that. Hopefully that happens. Yeah. I mean, he's the only one I'm excited about in this offense now. I could see Edwards developing a role. I could see Waller still being like a thing, but Joke's gonna be on us when Hunter Renfros still has a 30% target share and averages like 50 yards per game. It's possible. I don't, I guess the only thing that's really not possible is the 30% cause they won't, they'll probably cap everyone at like 22%. Of course. That's how it must be. Let's talk here about the Denver Broncos. Got Jerry Judy in the first round. K.J. Hamler in the second round. And I wanna start things off here the same way we started things off with the Raiders. We talked about Derek Carr there. Drew Locke is far more questionable than Derek Carr because our sample on him is much smaller, but at least in college he's a lot more willing to just let a rip and de-gaff and see what happens. I kind of hope we see that Drew Locke again with Judy, Hamler, Sutton, Fantz, Okwebunam, everyone there. Are you interested in Drew Locke early in the year? I am, but the more I thought about it, like last year quarterback pricing was really flat on Fandle. And I was like, I don't wanna be a buzzkill, but if he's like $7,200 and we get some like mid-tier starters or like some, just some better options at like 75, like Phillip Rivers, it's gonna be tough to get- It would be tough to go Rivers over Locke and get those salaries. I agree. I begrudgingly agree. I was just trying to think of who might be priced around there, but- No, that's a very fair cop, and I think that's right. But yeah, I mean, in a vacuum, yeah, like Drew Locke arrows up makes a ton of sense. And for tournaments, we could, like getting the ball to these playmakers could just make it super easy for Drew Locke to put up a big game. So I'm definitely very into Locke, but again, being a bit of a wet blanket, like I'm not gonna say, yeah, we're playing Drew Locke week one, no matter what his price is, cause he's probably gonna be pricing here guys who are like much safer bet. I'd rather you go, we're locking in Drew Locke, no matter what. I used Drew Locke last year, and if I used Drew Locke last year, I gotta use Drew Locke this year. I shouldn't admit publicly that I used Drew Locke last year. There's receipts on YouTube- Definitely did. Oh yeah, there's, not somewhere, I don't know. Like some site has like scripts that I've run that knows that I used him. They're like, oh, we're saving this for a rainy day, bro. But I think that what we look for at quarterback in DFS is upside and Locke's path to upside is a lot easier to see now than it is with some other quarterbacks because they have speed for days between Judy who ran a 445, Hamler who allegedly would have run like a, I think he said he ran a 437 while training. 427. 427? They said he, I thought I read that they thought he would get to a 427, but he ran a 437. I couldn't totally off of it. It's possible. Okay, well, he ran a 417. Let's just go an extra step here. He ran a 417, we can guarantee that. Fans ran a 4-5. Oak Wabanam ran a 449. Last year, I think Drew Locke had 24 pass attempts to guys who ran a 4-5 or better, and now he may have like none outside of the ones that go to Cortland Sutton who ran a I think a 445, 4-5-4. And that gives you the ability to score points in bunches, but also Drew Locke is, he's not known as being a good athlete, but he is. He actually had a similar, I think he had a better 40 yard dash than Justin Herbert and like the justifications you hear for the Chargers drafting Justin Herbert were, well, he's athletic. It was 100th of a second slower than Justin Herbert at 469. But he ran a bit in college, didn't run a ton last year, but when you think about speed stretching the field, that also opens things up a bit more for Drew Locke to run. So I'm not expecting Drew Locke to run more, but I could see it happening. And I'm okay buying into, this is within his range of outcomes early in the year before we allow others to react to it. So personally, I'm not saying Locke and Drew Locke in week one, but I will be inclined, like if it's a decent matchup, I'm going to have speculative shares in multi-entry tournaments. Oh yeah, for sure. Week one I think is gonna be very interesting. Again, it might turn out that we have like a very similar off season to what we typically have, but if not, it's gonna be way easier to sell myself on like, why not Drew Locke in week one? If everyone else is kind of not quite up to speed as they typically are, but we wanna be out ahead of the curve. And I think Drew Locke and the Broncos are gonna be one of those spots where I feel like this just feels like an offense that we're gonna talk about once every three weeks in the trend section. Like here's how the Target shares going lately because of one thing or the other, but Drew Locke, I'm excited for you. Well talk to me about, yeah, Drew Locke is my guy. If you like read my stuff last year, which I'm sorry if you did, but like I loved Drew Locke coming out. I thought that he was underrated because he played a really tough schedule. He was, like we always talk bad to speak ill of players with big arms, but he was actually efficient at times at Mizzou despite having like that negative connotation of big arm athletic. So I think that he can hit the upside here. I worry of second round pick quarterbacks and being too jazzed about them ever, which is why I make sure to always qualify things of like, he could suck. But I think the odds he sucks are lower given the people around him. Let's talk about the Target shares though because Cortland Sutton is amazing. We love Cortland Sutton, but they did add relevant past catchers, which is something that they didn't have after the Manny Sanders trade last year. So what's the outlook for you with Cortland Sutton now that they have Judy and Hamler in town? Yeah, so actually did go back, kind of filter out their shares with Emmanuel Sanders. He made a face. I don't know if I said something. I realize they deleted all the chiefs targets from week one through nine from my sheet and I just saw this now, that's why I cringed. I'm gonna have to go back and react those after this. That's unfortunate. Yeah. So I have Sutton with a 27% target share after the Sanders trade. Nobody else above 16.1% and that was no a fan. But Tim Patrick and Deshaun Hamilton were right around 14 or 15%. So I think Jerry Judy and KJ Hamler will kind of replace Tim Patrick and Deshaun Hamilton rather than eat significantly into Cortland Sutton. I'm not projecting Sutton for 27% of the targets or anything, but I think that there's a very clear spot, like an identification spot where the target's coming from like who's losing targets. It's gonna be Tim Patrick and Deshaun Hamilton. I don't think Hamler really projects for like a super high target share anyway just because of what he does. So there's room for Judy to have like a decent target share. And I think at the low end, what I have right now for Sutton is 24% of the targets, which is a 3 percentage point decrease, but the offense should be way more efficient. And we've talked about this on the live stream, but the stuff that Cortland Sutton had to do to like catch passes was insane. He would like swallow up defenders. So he should have a lot easier time this year. So I have Sutton for 24%. I have Jerry Judy at 17%, Hamler at 13%, Noah Fan at 16%. And I think like there's still plenty of reasons to think that Cortland Sutton can be toward the top end of the wide receiver ranks and target share. And I think that you can look at this, the opposite of what you did too, where you can look at what Sutton did with Emmanuel Sanders there, because it was a legitimate second piece and Jerry Judy as a rookie is probably gonna be a legitimate second piece. But even when Manny was there for the first seven weeks, Sutton had 25% of the overall targets, but 43% of the deep targets. And that's a DFS, like a very DFS relevant wide receiver, like an expensive, relevant DFS wide receiver. And especially if Hamler can stretch the field and alleviate some coverage on Sutton, that could make things even better. So I agree with you that Cortland Sutton is still going to get a lot of targets and be super relevant in this offense. And like Noah Fan's number that he said, 16% is not bad for a tight end either. So I honestly think this is going to be a fun DFS offense because we can use Sutton or we can fill tight end with fans and maybe we get guys like Judy and Hamler to be relevant too. So, I mean, Judy more so than Hamler. But like, I think I'm pretty optimistic here. I'm not as optimistic as I was with the Cowboys. And like, they were more so a concern because like they had three dudes who would command targets whereas here it's more like two if we go Sutton and Judy and then kind of everyone else is like filtering in. But I think that even while acknowledging they're not going to be the Cowboys from an efficiency perspective, I still think this will be a good offense for DFS. Yeah, I think it's going to be quite fun. And you mentioned like the 25-ish percent target share that would have been like 10th among, it's weird because when I first learned market shares like 28, 30% or bust for these top end guys. Well, at the time it was, it's just not as much, not as relevant anymore. There aren't as many receivers who get that. Just three last year, top 30%. Do you know who they are? Hopkins, Thomas. Actually, Hopkins is a 29% fuller with that. I think it's like 33 when Fuller was in. So I think Hopkins, Michael Thomas and now they're above 30%. It's really obvious, I guarantee it. I mean, it's not. Hulia was like 15%, so it's not Hulia. I haven't 25%. This is from fantasy80hd.com. Okay. This is going to bother me so much. Do you want me to tell you? No, no, no, don't tell me. Gosh, how dare you? Edelman? No, he was at 26. What other players are in football even? Oh, in games they played? Yeah, it's not. Oh, so it's Devante. Yeah. Okay, yeah. He missed tons, so I was factoring him out, but that makes sense. Okay, so Devante. I never already got it, so. All right. I forget all this stuff, unless I'm looking for it. I think that the Broncos will be fun. I think that applies to everyone here. I wouldn't expect usage at a Hamler early, especially. But like, he returned kicks, he returned punts. Maybe get that double dip with like the defense special teams. We can go that way. Melvin could be fun depending on how many targets he gets. I think all around this will be a good team. It's not like another team that added a lot of speed in the draft. That's the Philadelphia Eagles, because last year, they didn't have any speed. They were weird. They got a lot of speed this time, though. Jalen Rager in the first round. They traded for Marquis Goodwin. Carson Wentz was someone I don't, again, I wasn't super enthused to use last year, but is he going to be someone using DFS now that they actually have some legit options? I thought you were going to say you weren't super enthused about Carson Wentz coming out. We don't discuss those takes publicly, Brandon. Those are slack takes. Hey man, you're the one who does quarterback write-ups. I know. At least people forget that I like J.J. or they go white side, so. Maybe people forget that I like Brad Kaia. I know, I will never forget. You didn't get a job in the XFL, man. It's disappointing, disappointing all around. Yeah, so for Wentz, he was pretty average last year in terms of efficiency. The Eagles were like the mostly average team that there was, based on everything. So they lacked speed with Deshaun Jackson hurt. He had, I think, 10 targets in week one. It was pretty nuts, but in the end, Carson Wentz was 30th in downfield attempt rate. Wasn't very efficient on those passes. So the speed's going to help, but for Wentz? Yeah, I'm higher on Wentz, but I'm just, I can't really, it's almost like the Derek Carr situation where I don't necessarily know if I love the target shares or expected target shares and like single game targets, because the Eagles will just kind of give it to whoever's open and that's fine for Carson Wentz, but it's not fun for DFS. Yeah, I think that with Carson Wentz specifically, last year the numbers were bad and you could chalk that up to the skill position guys and you should because like situation matters so much for quarterbacks, but he also had a ridiculously easy schedule. It was the 30 easiest schedule. If you look at average dropback, the average ranking of the opposing past defense for a dropback, I don't know the way to phrase that. His average dropback came against the 19.3 ranked defense. Let's say it that way, based on number of fires metrics. That was 30 easiest behind Drew Locke in a small sample and Sam Darnold, we can have a discussion about Sam Darnold, but that's a red flag, but Carson Wentz had the easy schedule and couldn't really exploit it. So that kind of offsets to me the bad pass catcher argument. It doesn't offset it completely, but it lowers the weight that that carries for me. So I'm still a bit nervous, I guess, about this situation with Carson Wentz. And like I also don't value Mark, he's good when all that much, like he's been hurt a ton, even when he's played, like he's fine. I think Jalen Rager is a very good player. I like that addition. I might have gone with Justin Jefferson over Jalen Rager, but I think Jalen Rager is in addition to this offense. I think the biggest winner is actually Miles Sanders here because they didn't take a running back and he was really good when he got usage last year. We know the team values him because it's kind of like we talked over before with smart organizations spending on, you know, a high value pick on a running back. They did out Miles Sanders last year. I think that Boston Scott's still gonna contribute, but like I think that Sanders is gonna be pretty sweet. So I would say the big winner is Miles Sanders, but, and I think that Wentz gets a slight bump up, but I'm not sure if it's enough for me to like, try to actively buy low there. Yeah, I mean, these numbers are never gonna be 100%. You can't account for everything in like, in the data, even though we have all this data, you can't account for everything, but I was curious because you mentioned that it might not be just because of the past catchers, but Sports Info Solutions has data on like catchable target numbers and on target numbers. Wentz was fine among guys with 100 or more pass attempts. They don't have ranks specifically unless I poured all into Excel, but he was like just above average in catchable target rate, but it's actually below Daniel Jones, which was funny. I was not big into Carson's once coming out. I can guarantee you I was higher on him than Daniel Jones. Yeah, I mean, it's very close, but it was just kind of funny that even with like not the toughest schedule, the catchable target numbers, not anything to be overly excited about, the on target numbers, nothing great. So I think you and I are both just lower on Carson Wentz than probably a lot of people, and that's fine, I'm willing to miss out, but I'm extra willing to miss out if they happen to like share the ball like they did last year, because I made this note, last year they had 10 games where a receiver or tight end had at least 15 fandal points and it doesn't account for price, but like if you can't score 15 fandal points, I don't really have a whole lot of interest. So 10 of those over the 16 games, one was from Deshaun Jackson in week one, two were from Nelson Aguilore the next two weeks. Zachary had three of them, Ashlyn Jeffery had two, and then there was one from Greg Ward and Dallas Goddard. So Greg Ward got 15 points. In week 15, it was like 15.6 when I looked. That was the week we had the bet on him, wasn't it? I think we had a bet on Greg Ward. Oh yeah, now you forget, ha ha. But like this is never the perfect example, but if you compare that to a team like Tampa Bay last year, where they really fixated on a few guys, they had 11 games with 15 or more fandal points, five from Chris Godwin, four from Mike Evans, then two from Rashad Perriman, like Perriman was really only relevant when there were injuries. But like you might think, well there are still big games to be had and like yes there are, there were just almost as many from Philadelphia as there were from Tampa Bay, but it's there. You weren't getting 40. Teams like this with target shares that are much more dispersed, there's so much harder to figure out and there's so much, the probability that you hit on that stack is just so much lower. Yeah, and I think with Zachary, it's like he's so volume dependent and he's always gotten volume in the past, but now that they have some other legit guys, assuming Ashlyn Jeffery's healthy like, is he gonna get enough volume to have a big game? I don't know. So I've never been into ERTS unless it's been a drastic situation where they don't have a lot of dudes. I think the one guy who could potentially be worth it is Ragger because at TCU, like you look at his target market share numbers, I think he was above 30% of the targets this past year. He didn't have productivity in those targets because he got a lot of downfield work and you can look at the data about how many of those are catchable, et cetera, et cetera. Wentz is gonna be more able to hit Joe on Ragger downfield than TCU was. So I could see him having Dishon Jackson type weeks, but I'm not thinking I'm gonna try to be ahead of it. I think the one guy I'll try to be ahead of on is Miles Sanders and then let the past catchers work themselves out if Wentz becomes viable, cool, I'll buy him then, but I'm okay, like you said, kind of being a little behind when it comes to that. Let's talk about some rookie quarterbacks here. I think that Joe Burrow's probably the one guy who could start week one. What's your outlook for the Charger, or Bengals, whoof, for the Bengals with Joe Burrow being there and AJ Green being back? So it's really hard to project rookie quarterback efficiency for someone as touted and as efficient as Joe Burrow. I kind of put him in like the top 80th percentile and like what we've seen from quarterbacks in terms of like yards per attempt and net expected points data, which is kind of how I drive like expected efficiency, but I feel like with that, we're looking at efficiency on par or better than Andy Dalton, who frankly, I don't think is quite as bad as everyone else thinks. He hasn't talked about situation. It's never been super great for Andy Dalton in recent years, but obviously Joe Burrow stepping into that situation, which is now pretty good with AJ Green, hopefully healthy because I love AJ Green. Tyler Boyd's made huge strides. And then you kind of throw in like T Higgins and John Ross. John Ross has the same impact, not the same impact, but he's got that like field stretching impact and you can definitely prove that that helps quarterbacks, that helps receivers, that helps with efficiency. So for Burrow, I mean, I think that this can be like a league average offense, like a passing offense and that's fine. It's just going to depend on like how expensive is AJ Green? How expensive does he get? How healthy is he? What does that do to Tyler Boyd? So this is really, really hard to figure out even though I know what I kind of project for this offense, I don't know. Like I don't really have a good barometer for how these guys are going to be priced. Yeah, I think that my, like with Burrow, my assumption going into the draft was that the Bengals would do something with their offensive line. I love that they're getting Jonah Williams back. He should be an improvement to left tackle, but they've got a lot of issues elsewhere and they did not address it until the sixth round. So like the T Higgins pick, if they had taken like Ezra Cleveland or Josh Jones or someone there, I mean, I know Josh Jones didn't go to the third, but like they'd taken Ezra Cleveland and plugged him in at right tackle. I'd be into Burrow himself. I think that with the offensive line, Burrow is one of the players who can excel or do well behind a bad offensive line. Again, my comp this entire time frame has been Russell Wilson because like, I think he can be good despite a bad offensive line because he's so good outside of structure. But what that will do is it will lower his efficiency to have a bad offensive line, which hurts him in DFS. And it's also going to increase the appeal of opposing defenses in DFS. Burrow sneakily held on the ball a long time at LSU. His sacrate among the top quarterbacks in this class was second highest behind Jalen Hertz, who had by far the highest time to throw in the entire nation last year, according to pro football focus. He kind of took a lot of sacks because he has like that Russell Wilson mentality where he wants to make it a play, which can be good, but it can also be good for opposing defense and special teams. And I think that's something interesting that I would take away from here is that Burrow may be a little bit prone to sacks and the offensive line is going to suck. So I'm interested in buying into opposing defense and special teams. Now I will still use the wide receivers because they could go nuts if Burrow performs well, but I think that that's at least an interesting part there. And I don't want to mention. Yeah, and you don't build out projections, I don't think, but the most important part of building out projections to me is just identifying target shares and seeing where things can go. And we don't have to play Joe Burrow to play AJ Green or Tyler Boyd. And really, if you go through their offense, it's very easy to put both of those two. Again, we just have to assume that AJ Green is healthy and ready to go. But for like 22 to 25% of the targets, like they can each get there. That's not unrealistic. And then like John Ross is not gonna have, he's not gonna get more targets than these two guys. And they don't really have a ton else. T Higgins, T Higgins is one of my favorite receivers in this draft class, but he's not gonna compete week one or like the first few weeks with these guys. So AJ Green, Tyler Boyd have pretty high target floors here. Apparently T Higgins might start. And I was kind of curious where. That was the report this morning. I have no idea for whom because if they take Ross off the field, I would be like, I think, alluding to what you were talking about, I'd be a little bit concerned about the speed element is like that offense took a step back last year after he got hurt. But hopefully we'll know more. Run for what? Yeah, why not? I mean, they don't have a tight end really. So actually, yeah, let's do it. Put T Higgins tight end, who cares? Get Joe Burrow rocking and rolling. Yeah, put Andy Dolman tight end, who cares? I mean, when I used to play Madden as a kid, I would play with the Bengals. Why? Chad Johnson, T.J. Hushman's auto. Okay. Whoever they're running back was. Was he still there? Might have been Corey Dillon, but. Oh, Ben Jarvis Green Alice, maybe? No, before that. I'm talking like Madden 2005. But I would run. Was there anymore? I'd run four wide. Gosh, I used to love him in fantasy football too. I'll have to look it up. But four wide. And then if the defense is running, if they're running dime, just audible to a quick run. If they're in anything else, just. Is that like Carson Palmer? Yeah. Okay. You can't run with him, which stinks. No. If you could, I'd be pretty sick. Yeah. I would. I'd be on board of that. So let's get the, let's get Zach Taylor Madden. Yeah, they can just run. I'll explain to my super sophisticated Madden 2005 offense that I came up when I was 15. Consulting to the Bengals offense, Brandon Gadoula says a lot. Here's what I did in Madden 2005. Listen to me. I think the Chargers probably is a consultant because they for some reason did not take a left tackle, but they've got a lot of DFS relevant pieces. Probably going to be Tarah Taylor or Justin Herbert at quarterback. I think we can say that pretty definitively now. Are you willing to use guys like Austin Neckler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, knowing the potential limitations of this offense? And to me that's more focusing on left tackle than Tarah Taylor. Wait, did you say, sorry, did you say Tarah Taylor over Justin Herbert? Potentially. Well, no, like I heard you say kind of cut out a little bit and then I also didn't listen to you. Classic. Hold back. Cause I was looking up this Bengals thing, but I thought you said definitively. Oh no, no, no. I said we don't know definitively who will play a quarterback. Rudy Johnson. Oh yeah, yeah. Okay, cool. I love that guy. I forgot about Rudy Johnson. Hopefully he didn't, hopefully he was good. We were too naive back in the day to know any better, so. Yeah. So I'll put it this way. I used the charges a lot last year. But Phillip Rivers was probably better. I mean, look, we both liked Phillip Rivers. He was efficient enough, but I used them because the market shares were good and the talent was there. I don't expect the market shares to be significantly different this year. At least not in a worse way. They could probably just get better. In the 12 games with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Mike Williams. Keenan was at 25% of the targets. Hunter Henry was 18%. Austin Eckler 17.7 and then Williams at 16%. Melvin Gordon was at 13%. So you get rid of that. However they feel that, but this is going to be one of the spots where the efficiency is going to be a little bit worse than it was last year, but the market shares, I can't anticipate being significantly worse for all these guys. So I think I'm going to be high on the charger's short term because I think I'll know where the targets are going. So that helps me a lot. What about you? I'm really worried about the touchdown potential in the offense with the left tackle situation being what it is and that worries me, but kind of like you said, like you don't need a ton of touchdown equity to be viable if you get good market shares. And I think given the contract they gave Austin Eckler, I'm comfortable projecting him to have like a, you know, let's say 13 carry six target projection per game. I don't know if that's too optimistic on the target side. It might be on the target side is probably a little bit too hefty, but like somewhere in that range, and I can use a player in that even if they're not scoring five tutties a game. So like, I think Eckler is interesting. I am hesitant about the other stuff though, just because like Keen and Allen sometimes has questions about his ceiling. Hunter Henry is a tight end and we're we want touchdowns out of our tight ends. So I might be a little bit off the chargers to start things off. And if they find a left tackle somewhere, I don't know where, but if they do, like the right side of their offensive line is like, cool. They got Trey Turner and Brian Bulaga there. That's awesome. But the left side is, oh my gosh, Tehran getting insurance policy right of will. I don't know, like it could get really bad. So I'm really worried. And I think that that sours me a bit on them, but I think I might just take a slow play approach with them. I mean, I don't think that that will really haunt you, but I would expect with either Tarad Taylor or you know, a rookie at quarterback that the prices would be a little bit down. Fair. And then we're looking at probably one of those spots where the expected target shares outweigh the the Fandall salary a little bit. And then that's one of those spots where it's like, I'm looking for a wide receiver at like whatever the price, then that makes sense to me. Yeah, okay. I think that's fair as well. How do you feel in the Dolphins offense? They added to the offensive line, seems like Ryan Fitzpatrick probably gonna start over to a tongue of Iloha, at least initially. Do they get Preston Williams back? Certainly interesting. They have Matt Breida and Jordan Howard, vomit. What are you thinking about them early on? So last year with Williams healthy, he was at like 22% of the targets. Devonte Parker at 18%. And then third in that span was Kenney Drake at 15 and a half percent. So probably safe to say that Preston Williams and Devonte Parker stepping into very high, like high floor, target share projections for Miami. The efficiency might not be what it would be in other offenses, but I think we're both probably okay with Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially from a fantasy standpoint. So my initial reaction here is, I think Preston Williams and Devonte Parker are going to be those types of plays who are relatively cheap, who can get like eight to 10 targets because that's just what's expected to be there. And we're like in a cash game, yeah, the targets are there, the price isn't too high because it's the offense that they're in. And I think that there's gonna be a lot of those weeks this year. And I think that Mike is sick, he could be in a similar range too, where he's like at least viable. And I think that this offense will be good enough because Fitzpatrick is competent. They added to the offensive line. They got Robert Hunt, who could be the right guard or right tackle, Josh Joe or Austin Jackson they got in the first round as well. They signed Eric Flowers and Ted Karris. So like they may, they will have four different starters along the offensive line than what they had last year. And that was what made me concerned about them is like, I didn't initially expect them to score points. They did later on, but the offensive line is better. So my point projection for them could be better as well, which means I could be into Devontae Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Kasicki, and steadfastly avoid the running backs like the Plag or COVID-19. But I think that I can be into them. I would lean Parker probably just because he and Fitzpatrick had such a good rapport down the stretch and I think that might carry over a bit. Plus like, I'm always hesitant to buy into a guy off an injury, I guess. So I think that that's why I would lean towards Parker, but I think that all three of those guys are totally fine. Yeah, so much Preston Williams and Best Ball last year. Oh, rest in peace. It started off well. It certainly did. But yeah, I think both of those guys and Kasicki do it to a certain degree, especially at tight end because we can, we don't really spend up at tight end often on this podcast. But yeah, with the running backs, I don't see a ton there. We don't know what the split's gonna be. I just have to, I just cut Kailin Belage from one of my dynasty teams. Poor one out, man. Probably gonna have to drop Laird at some point too. So we're living in the same zone. Maybe I shouldn't, I don't know. Let's talk with the Packers here because they're wild. Let's talk about the overall offensive efficiency first because they didn't do a ton to address short-term offensive efficiency. They did let their right tackle go in Brian Bulaga. That will change their offensive efficiency, which is not in a good way. They did sign Devin Funches, cool. But they struggled with efficiency last year. This offense isn't all that different. So can we trust Aaron Rodgers now that they've ignored improving the skill guys around him? No. How many times have we played Aaron Rodgers last year? I tried two once, but he was down to like Geronimo out. No, Geronimo was out. No, Geronimo was supposed to be out against the Raiders. And I was like, oh, I wanna use Rodgers, but everyone's hurts. I won't use him. It's like Jake Kumeros, the top receiver. And then Lazard and maybe MVS or whatever it was, like played despite being questionable or like missing practice the entire week. And I missed the boat and he went nuts. And then I couldn't ever buy back in after that except for like single game against the cheese. I think I might've, I think I did a trend on Rodgers that week. You did. And I still didn't use enough. Like that was- Well, cause like we didn't know the injury situation at the time. And like we missed the boat because of the freaking injuries. Yeah, so Rodgers, no, can't trust them. He had 10 games with fewer than 15 Fandall points last year, only four with more than 20. Only one was like more than 28. That was the Raiders game. There's just, it's really difficult. And I mean, I don't want to make that sound like, this is what he did last year. So- Right, right, right. But what's different than last year, really? Yeah, and like we're a pro Rodgers podcast, but the problem is you can't expect him to put up a ton of DFS points when he's thrown to Devante and a bunch of UDFAs. Like that's not realistic. And it's not fair to him to put those expectations on him. Yeah, you can only do, like you can only do so much. And look, they can win. They were a good team overall last year, but we want fantasy points. I don't care if your team wins. Like I just don't, I don't care. I want you to just throw that seventh touchdown and lose like I'm fine with it. Which they did against the 49ers in the championship game and they got Aaron Jones a touchdown late and I'm still grateful for that. But- Yeah, I think Rodgers is probably the biggest loser from what could have been. Correct. From expectation. From, yeah. Yeah, I'd agree with that. Aaron Jones is kind of like in that same realm because they took AJ Dillon in the second round. Aaron Jones was kind of due for touchdown regression to begin with and now they add AJ Dillon who is 247, might want to use that guy towards the goal line. Are we just gonna fade Aaron Jones until indefinitely, basically? I mean, if anyone's new listening to this, I don't, I never really loved Aaron Jones. I think he's a good talent, but the way that they used him was always a little bit problematic without like a surefire role at the goal line just soaking up the touchdowns. It's gonna be really hard for me to wanna play Aaron Jones a ton. So I don't think the seal, the reason that I would play Aaron Jones, I would never wanna play him. And then Jim and JJ, Zachary would talk me into like Aaron Jones from an upside standpoint each week. Then you go off for 40 points. You're walking. And I'm like, fine. And then the next week I'm like, yeah, but here are all these reasons why I don't wanna play him. And then, but like when the touchdowns weren't there and you can do this for any running back, but if the touchdowns aren't going to be there necessarily, I don't really wanna use Aaron Jones. Right. And like the reason I was willing to buy in Aaron Jones is because I expected the touchdowns to be there. This year I don't as much because like again, they did not improve their offense. They got worse by losing Brian Bulaga. And again, it's not gonna be a terrible right tackle because I asked some guys between Ricky Wagner and Billy Turner who could fill right tackle, but like it's not gonna be as good. So like that hurts. The one way in which I could still get really excited is if they like say, do so Jamal Williams and decide to use Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon together. Like if they split Aaron Jones out wide to make up for the fact that they ignored wide receiver, something they did do at times last year, then we can boogie. But I'm not gonna assume that. That's not gonna be my baseline assumption because I don't, I give a lot of teams the benefit of the doubt. I'm not gonna give the Packers the benefit of the doubt right now based on what has happened. So if I see that happen, I'll buy in, but I wanna see it first, I guess is where I'm at. Yeah, that was the only note that I really had. Maybe like maybe it's Jamal or it should be Jamal Williams who's like the biggest loser. So I don't wanna make it sound like it's gonna be AJ Dillon and Jamal Williams, but we don't wanna play running backs in timeshares because I mean one of the whole points of DFS is that you don't have to do that. And like season long, sure if you have Aaron Jones on your team, if you have him on your dynasty teams, it's not like this is the end in 2020 for him, but in DFS, you don't wanna split backfields. If you want him on your dynasty teams, let me know because I probably have him and I'm probably trying to sell him. Let's close up here before we get out forward today and talk about some guys who contribute early in the year. Are there any rookies we have not touched on yet Brandon who you might be interested in buying into and could have viability for DFS like right away? So people might be hoping like I come with some like super deep cuts, which is always fun, but deep cuts don't really pan out for her- Deep cuts for a reason. I was looking at this just to get a bit of a sanity check cause like the fifth plus rounders I didn't really project for any market shares. I just threw them into the other bucket in my projections. I think like 8% of receivers drafted to the fifth rounder later see 50 targets their first year over the past 10 years. Like it's just very rare that players who are not like day one, day two picks are relevant. So they're gonna be more like these early guys, but someone we didn't mention was not in detail. At least Denzel Mims for New York, the Jets, I should say. I really loved him coming out. He fell farther than I would have liked, but opportunities definitely there. I have him for a 16% target share, tying with Henry Rugs and CD Lam this year. So I think like immediate he's someone who stands out. Yeah. I am interested in basically the second round receivers. Like that's the way I'd say Denzel Mims is one of those guys, but Chase Claypool is huge. He is fast. We can kind of make the play the assumption game with Ben Roblesberger and hope that he has an early role and like Chase Claypool has a lot of draft capital tied to him. He went before Denzel Mims. He went before a lot of guys were going ahead of Chase Claypool in like Dynasty of Rookie drafts. So I think people might not be in on him. And that's kind of the way I wanna play it is if I'm gonna go here, I wanna not do so on guys who are gonna be popular. So I think the Chase Claypool kind of fits that. I also think you could say the same thing about Van Jefferson because no one like this dude pre-draft. I didn't like this dude pre-draft. I still not, I don't know what the Rams are doing, but when you look at guys who contribute across the NFL, last year, all of the top nine wide receivers and half PPR scoring were top three run picks, eight of the top 10 running backs were draft from the first two rounds. Look at draft capital and guys who may go underappreciated despite having heavy draft capital tied to them are, Denzel Mims won't, but I still like your pick because I think that he's gonna start. But Van Jefferson, Chase Claypool, I think they're both gonna fit into that scenario. KJ Hamler does from a profiling perspective, but I agree with what you said about how we should expect Sutton and Judy to have more targets. I think that Hamler's more like a guy you target if he slips into the third round of your rookie draft, but I think that that's kind of where I'm at there. Maybe you go with Leviska-Chanalt and hope that the Jaguars get creative with the uses there and then Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman's not gonna fly into the radar. We use Zach Pascal and some dude who is definitely no longer in the NFL for the Colts last year because they had no one behind T.Y. Hilton. Why would we not use Michael Pittman? So I think just kind of broadly, every receiver who went in the second round has my early interest because draft capital matters so much. Yeah, I have Pittman on my list as well. He's just, it's a great situation, good quarterback. We always get at least eight games indoors. You're gonna get some chuck and pray. But yeah, I haven't met like a 15% target share and these are just initial because he should be the second play behind Hilton even if he kind of shares with Zach Pascal, but Pittman was someone I highlighted. And then I know you mentioned second round receivers, but I think that we didn't really talk about Justin Jefferson. Clearly like Minnesota has a plan to use Adam Thielen and Jefferson together. I was a little bit underwhelmed at the landing spot on draft night, but the only fear really is that there's more of a horizontal offense, but the 22nd pick, there's gonna be volume there. So if we're looking for just someone who we haven't talked about on this podcast, but could be super relevant super early, Jefferson definitely is someone we should mention. And the good thing too is they did lose their offensive coordinator in Kevin Stefanski, but Gary Kubiak was kind of co-offensive coordinator and I would assume he had a big role to play in the play action and shuck it offense that they ran from like week five on. And like that would play well for Jefferson too. So I think that he could be pretty relevant right away. He seems polished. I know I'm not a good judge of like receiver talent, but like he seemed to be like a pretty safe selection. So I would agree with Jefferson too as someone being that we'd be interested in it pretty early on. But I think honestly just putting value in draft stock and draft capital and trying to find guys who may have roles right away, that's how you can find your Terry McLaurin type guys who broke out early on last year, pay attention to the pre-season if we have it too and try to connect those dots. Any final things you want to say before we close up shot, Brandon? I think just draft capital is super, super important. We just started hammering it at like the very end of this show. But again, teams can draft anyone they want. If they don't draft a guy until the sixth round it's for a reason most likely. So keep that in mind if you're ever trying to break ties early on with these rookies. And if you need to emotionally break ties with the quarterback you may have loved too much in the pre-draft process and win the fifth round, it's a pretty easy way to justify doing so. So yes, I'd agree with that as well. Brandon, people have questions for you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm at Goodwiller13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fanduel Podcast Network at Fanduel Podcast given the weird sports calendar right now. Probably not gonna have regular podcasts here in the heat check feed but we're gonna only pop in NASCAR podcast maybe back. Not that far down the road. PGA potentially going back in June too. So we'll be back eventually. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts whether it be Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, the Google Play Store, you name it, we are there. You can subscribe and get every podcast, right? As it is posted. Big thank you to Cal and Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in both today and for our live streams during the NFL draft. Hopefully you learned something, hopefully you had a good time and hopefully we can start this year's DFS season off on the right foot. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.