 Let's jump over to our man Teddy Kakes that every Wednesday folks at 940 a.m. Eastern time We talked to Teddy put it on your calendar You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website forex dash trading dash unlock comm we talk a little bit of forex We talk a little bit of crude. We got some action in that dollar index man. Teddy Kakes that good morning Morning Tommy. Yeah, what a really weird week. This is I'll tell you what Well, you know, it's uh, you're the you're you're the forex King Teddy and I'm jumping around I always keep my my radar especially now man with where yields are going right where the dollar is going some of the moves in these Forex markets, but it's always interesting when I'm getting ready to talk to you on Wednesdays at 940 and I'm looking at the markets Especially the same man. There's some real moves going on in this market. Where do you want to kick things off? I think we should just kick things off by kind of walking through what's happened over the past couple days Let's do it. We had a nice little buy signal in the 30-year bond about a week ago They've been trending higher for the past five sessions and with the what's weird with the forex markets is, you know Interest rates are a function of currency pricing So with interest rates going down right now as far as the market rate is concerned with the rally You would think that you would have dollar weakness Okay, you should have at least or at least a dollar correction right now So it would have been right to have a dollar sell off meaning the dollar index most likely would have pulled back Over the past few sessions Instead you have the Euro hammering new lows you have the pound that fell out of bed over the past few sessions You know and even the Swiss the Swiss is the one that surprised me the most is how much that one is rallied over the past couple of sessions You know, so the fact that we have these markets going It's not that they trade in tandem and always go in a certain fashion However, they do support the trend and right now being in these toppy areas if you will or bottom-ish Areas for them to diverge like that is a very very very weird and odd circumstance right now It's hard to get a beat on it, you know, I mean obviously I think one of the biggest things you're seeing with the European currencies as far as the forex market is concerned is that you know Sanctions on Russia are also sanctions on the EU and also on UK, you know So the reality is is that you know, they're exporting countries and one of their biggest exports is to Russia So now you have the UK and all the EU that has cut themselves off from, you know, one of their biggest Buyers, you know, so and I think you're starting to really see that as far as what currency traders are looking to as far as value I mean, we were talking about that the Euro has a potential to get down to parody Sometime in the next, you know, I think it was two weeks ago We were talking about that that it would take probably until the end of the summer because we're looking at a conflict Excuse me. That's not going to end Anytime soon, it's not gonna happen on a dime. That's for sure And right now when you have between the the COVID shutdowns that were first then you open up and then all of a sudden you shut I mean, there's factories that are shutting down all across Europe right now Sure, you know because who they gonna send product to, you know So and that starts to that starts to implicate other supply chain issues and demand issues, you know So we're coming into a world right now where, you know, we've never gone through this kind of thing not in our lifetimes That's for sure, you know, and I think that these dynamics are starting to really show, you know As far as the big economic numbers, you really have to watch those because the dollar shouldn't be as strong as it is right now There's no reason for it, you know, I mean strong. Yes, but not like it is right now I mean, if you look at the dollar index, that's because the Euro the pound now the yen This is the interesting one. We've been talking about the yen a lot, right? So the yen had a little pullback over the past two sessions and now it's bounced back today That was a very weird sell-off the way it was pounding on on support really, you know While the other ones were falling out of bed because usually you have a Divergence between which way the yen goes and the other ones are going you don't typically see them Going the way they were working over the past two sessions. So the volatility is I mean We know that it's not going away and it's been here But it's been very very odd to get a hold of and I think that you probably have seen at least in the on the Retail end I wouldn't doubt that a lot of bears and bulls got really chewed up over the past I would say some Sunday night until yesterday evening, you know now. I think the trends are solid I still think the US dollar yen is gonna rally, you know, I think now the Euro We were talking I think a couple weeks ago I said you wouldn't see parity in the Euro at least until the end of the summer Maybe the fall because usually you find a lot of support around 107 half 107 even and the fact that we are just I mean It's like a lead weight, you know, so and I don't I would not get in front of that momentum I would look to sell rallies, you know as far as that's concerned with the Euro and the pound You know, I would not try and be a buyer Even if you have a really great buy signal I would let the signal manifest itself and then wait look for weakness to come back in, you know As long as the geopolitical, you know stage remains the same just amazing moves man that you're you know a year ago Back you're sitting at 122 in the Euro basically in May and it's gonna be May and what less than a week and we're sitting at 105 man Just remarkable. I was reading an article today over at Bloomberg Teddy and it was an opinion article But it was talking about rates and it's talking about fang stocks in the Euro and one thing that caught my eye Thinking about talking to you man talking about rates talking about the dollar is the widening gap with the rate expectations are rising in the EU but dwarfed by the US change and Basically the chart here. I'm not sure if you can see it, but we got basically the expectation when you're talking about Where we are just massively in terms of the US versus the EU the rate hikes Do you see that being a continual factor in this dollar index and I totally agree with what you're saying There should have been a reprieve no matter what right? I mean if the if we get kind of that pullback in yields That should matter and it's kind of been a little bit weird of how the dollar indexes keep charging higher But are you looking at? Obviously and you've taught me this somewhat over like the last five I mean we've been talking so many years, man I was just thinking that the and we'll jump to it that the the Swiss parody is almost back And that's what we're talking about when we first started chatting with you But do you look for where Europe goes versus where the US goes where the rate hikes are in terms of at least for those Two currencies the Euro US dollar, which how do you look at that? Yeah, absolutely, Tommy I do for sure and that's a gap that is widening you very good observation that I Don't see that trend stopping. I think that no matter what we were the Fed wasn't a lag to begin with We should have been raising rates already a few years ago You know so that we could cut rates right now and helped us got a raising good times man, right totally correct And when it comes to the EU you got to remember that they were on quantity with around what quantitative easing 20 or something like that I mean it's just their packages are you know, it's kind of like what we talked about with the Japanese how they reverse course with the Bank of Japan You can't be buying up your debt market and then say you're gonna raise rates, you know Those yields are gonna be in a tug of war and at least we know that we're cutting our purchasing on bonds and and notes We know that we're pending as far as how many where we're gonna be a year from now We know we're gonna be at least two plus percent on they are a discount rate, you know I mean that's it would be shocking if we were you know, hopefully we are right because that is bad things happening At least the market if we're not right I agree it's sure right right, but with the ECB, you know, they're It doesn't make any sense that they're staying so held fast on this I don't I don't understand especially with them putting the sanctions on Russia They're bearing their own currency They're doing everything to trash their own value which in the short run helps with exports But it's gonna hurt him. It's a tough deal man, right inflation raging. They had a war bone on their commodity price is high Teddy, can you stay with us to chat a little bit of crude for a second? You got a few minutes? Okay, come back I know we got listeners. They want to hear some crude conversation, man. We'll be right back. We'll be talking some crude folks. Stay tuned Welcome back folks. We got markets higher you get the Nasdaq 100 right now up 1.3 percent S&P's just coming above a percent at 42 15 doll right now up to 810 percent. We're on the phone We're on the video with our man Teddy keg stat. We're gonna talk a little forex. So Teddy We got crude at 100 if the listener has been watching viewers watching for a while. They know you're a bull I'm pretty sure you're probably gonna be a bull longer term But we got about two minutes right now if you could walk the viewers through What you're looking for in terms of what shapes this market in the near term versus the long term if you are Trying to trade this market. God bless you man, but talk to us about crude teddy Well, I would expect you see a rally coming up again over the next like week or so I think that the coil has been winding if you will we We hit some nice resistance and it definitely remember we've been talking about once you get crude oil up around a hundred dollars to a hundred and ten Consumers are making choices. We already know that that's definitely coming into play right now. Yes I think that that trend is going to continue, you know, it's kind of funny how if you listen to the news, you know, like We know that the airlines are booking up all kinds of flights for the summer travel is definitely going to be increasing Okay. Well, that's great for transportation stocks But it doesn't mean that when people are traveling that they're going to be spending a lot of money because it's going to cost them a Lot to travel, you know, and since people were contained for over, you know Two years in some cases so people want to see their relatives So they're making those choices for sure that they want to see people so they're willing to travel You know what I mean, but I don't think that that means it's going to be a boom to the economy Because of that, you know, and I think that that's also going to wane, you know And in the short run it's going to drive up demand for sure, you know And I think you have to look at the what's going on in Shanghai to this bottleneck Well, you know what's going on with them. Yeah, what happens when Shanghai opens its doors What happens when the factories go back on you have all these ships, you know that have built up around me I looked at a map and I was of a picture that same picture. I saw something like it I know what you mean all those ships out there just like a little ant dots, right? It's sitting in the water, right, right? It's almost it's almost like the country's expanding, you know I mean like if you look at it from a from an aerial view and and I think that when that actually starts to come It's it's that's going to be a big deal when they come back online, you know Because what's going to be the demand for crude oil then, you know for for for the ships and stuff like that So many mention what's going to be right? So I think that we're going to see in a month or so two weeks a big rally again Teddy man, we appreciate the time so much man. You have a great week. We'll talk to you next one Okay, thanks