 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Basil Chapman, just always having these sudden things happen here technically, but I think we're good. The Dow is up 215 on this Friday the 13th of October. I'm surprised that we've started this leg, B in the Chapman wave, but that 200-period moving average. You see this orange line right here? That is formidable resistance. We went above it earlier on, we went to $33,957. Now we're at $33,839, quite a bit of a pullback, but still pretty good. The S&P, I'm going to do this with one hand, S&P right now, is up 14 at $43,63.91. Now why did I lose that page? It just drives me completely bad. So we got that up 14, got repelled to the 14-period moving average, hadn't yet made our leg B. That's very interesting. Oh, I did it by a fraction of a point yesterday. So the weekly chart has still got that F, and this is a Friday. The 9-period is under the 14. We're going to have to watch this very closely, which is one of the reasons why I've considered that this is really more a very serious balance in the market. Look at the QQQ rallying up to the Chapman wave inside track repellent zone. It went yesterday to 374, 373.74, and today it is down 52 cents at 369. Of course, the banks are really helping the Dow. Well, JP Morgan is helping the Dow. But look at that. And it's the same thing with the estimation, the semiconductor index. Look at this. Down one at 151.19, got repelled right in the Chapman inside track repellent zone. This is the leg C so far, and we're looking at the IWM, the Russell 2000. You see what it's doing. Down 32 cents today, 171. Now, what's absolutely intriguing is that the gold contract, there we go, gold, is up $42 at 1925. This is kind of what I was anticipating earlier on, and then it didn't happen. We had some good candles off to the initial gap up on the Monday, the ninth, that was Friday. Yeah, Monday, kept making higher highs and higher lows, and today it spiraled up. It went to 1932, and now it's trading at 1924, holding the gains very well. Now, it's so fascinating. I'll do this. I'll do it right now. Look, if you go to Newmont Mining, it's one of the standard classics in the gold. A very nice move from the low of just under 34 to 39, 32 right now, but look at that weekly chart. Even with a spectacular six or seven day rally, it's nothing. Look at the monthly chart. Beautiful left side, right side, price, time match. 33 was the round number low back in 2020. This is on a monthly chart. It's very unusual to get round numbers. It's a beautiful instance, of course, but it's still unusual. And here we are having almost tested it at the 35 range. 34, let me give you the exact price. It was 34.61, and it's a green candle, and the monthly chart was still quite a bit of the month to go, half a month to go. So we're going to be watching that. And then you've got stocks like in the Silver area, past Pan American Silver, had a horrible session yesterday that gaps up today. But even if you're looking at the weekly chart, this is not a great action. And I would have to say to you that it's the fear factor that's really moving some of the goals. And if you look at the GDX, not looking very good yesterday, but a very nice move up to $1.04 today to 2878. But look at that monthly chart, the weekly chart and the monthly chart. Nothing to see there, folks, just yet. But this is in play. There's no question that now with the war going on in the Middle East, you've got to consider that gold is where money tends to flow, especially when it's the Middle East in a situation like this. And if you're looking at Silver, that's the continuous contract, really nice candle today. But the 90 slow week under the 14-period moving average. But it has taken that. Oh, it's just about to take out this longer-term trend line from the beginning of September. It needs to get to 2020. It's at 2268 right now, up 0.72. That's the silver contract. Let's go to the TLT. This is amazing. Look at this. Horrible, horrible, horrible. As a terrible day yesterday, and suddenly it's up to $155 at 87.64. But if you're looking at the daily chart, the weekly chart and the monthly chart, there is so much that has to happen to the TLT, to bonds, to be able to say that we've turned the corner and that yields are going to go lower as the bonds go higher. It's a working process, but all I can say is it doesn't look too good right now. So as I said, I'm using this one hand because, on the other hand, holding the old fashioned, it's called a telephone with a cable with a wire. Meantime back at the ranch, what we're looking at is that the dollar, I wonder if it's given up any of those earlier gains, the dollar is unchanged at 106.56. So I spoke about this inside track repellent zone. It was a propellent zone and what then became a repellent zone for a couple of days. And now we've moved above that line and that reminds me of the SMHs. Look at the way the SMHs, semiconductor, went right up into the inside track, formally propellent zone, then became a repellent zone, and now it's just stuck there. So this is a very complex moment that we're looking at right now. You're starting to see, at least from my perspective, I want to see the XLF, which is the S&P Financial Spider Fund, at this point at $33.43 up to $0.29. I want to see it with Bank of America and many of the other financials pushing sharply higher. I want to see it closer to $34.30 than $33.40. And then I'm going to say, oh, okay, save the day right at the last moment because we were just about to break under $32.00. That would have been terrible because that's the joint appeared moving average of the weekly chart. So we're going to be following this very closely. In the meantime, back at the ranch, I want you to show you what crude oil has done. And crude oil had a really sharp overnight move. It's still up almost three points at $85.84. Look at the chart. The chart says it's actually struggling. If you look at the weekly chart, if it closes right here, that peak D says we're very close to a sell signal, but we haven't got it. And with this whole Middle East configuration, I don't see crude oil dropping very sharply. I think it's in play because obviously it's kind of a leverage for many of the players in the oil market. This is in play. And no, JB, I didn't see a low-trend, a seven-wave low-trend gauge today. It's just a standard. It's nothing unusual there. So with that said, I'm expecting Ray Sion. Ray Sion is up in leg D, but it doesn't look very good. Oh, there are so many things here that are not normal. I'll be back in a moment. 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Yeah, I don't think I'm going to mess with that at this point. All right, so let's just do this. I've got the Dow up 143. Oh, I had all those charts. Let me see if I can get this going. So just a real quick review. S&P is... No action. Command, line, error. Okay, whatever it is. I'm not going to fight with you. You don't want to lose that information. There we go. S&P is now only up nine. The QQQ was a little weaker before. Now it's weaker again, down 51 cents. IWM, I just want to do a quick review. Whoa, horrible chart down 30 cents. Now let's get to gold. Is gold pulling back? No, gold is getting stronger. Okay, so I wanted to just do that to refresh for myself because my left side screen, I've got three screens here. I've got a couple of screens and different computers, but that left side screen I'm not getting and I don't want to take a chance by putting in recent workspaces because it's going to go to the wrong place and then mess me up completely. So within this context, let me do this. Let me see if there are any questions here first of all. Close. Close. No. All right, let me just do a quick review of where we are if you're looking out for subscribers to my opening call. Yes, I need to go here. Give me a second. I've got Tiger Chat. That's what I'm looking for. Okay, Tiger Chat. Any questions that I had? I might have lost them. I'll try to review. I'll go back. Oh, Eli Lilly. Okay, let's just do Lilly Lilly had a nice rebound and now it's made a leg E and it's a red candle, a leg D in the weekly chart, and a G stash C in the monthly chart. Now I had mentioned some time, I think it was about four sessions ago, that I had missed the entry point, the perfect entry point for a rebound and all I would consider it to be would be a rebound towards the high that was made at 601.84, but you could start a split position but only with a small position here because it would only be a trade. Now we've got your leg E and you see the way the stochastic is at 92%, if by Thursday or Friday of next week, that stochastic has fallen underneath 80%, then you've got to be really careful because then Eli Lilly, LLY is the symbol at 606, down 385, will be coming back quite sharply and could probably come back to the 573 to the 560 level. If it holds very well and I'm going to make it as soon as Monday afternoon or Tuesday, it has not. I'm not telling you where it can go to the upside, I'm telling you where it can go to the downside. If it has not taken out five, I've got to go to that candle's opening price, $596 to 10 points lower if it hasn't taken out the $596 level and is holding quite well, then that second position is not going to come in because remember I said split, I would just stay with that first position, try to go on as much as you can on the upside but I do think at some point on everything that I'm looking at on a visual basis, see this expanding conformation to the upside. Look, here we are. See beautiful trend line. Let me just do it the way I would normally do it. Don't rush this. Take it from there to there. Look at that. This is the tapwave inside track repellent zone. I'll make it green on the outside, red on the inside, right there, right there. Okay, that's it. I don't have to do the other one. Just other than to say to you, normally I would look at this and say this is the exact opposite of the expanding downside cone that we look at with the falling axe formation. So what we would be looking at here is if there is a slide over the next two weeks, it would not surprise me if this area right here in the middle and that takes me right to where I was talking about the 596, maybe even 590 area does get tested on Eli Lilly. That was the one question. Next question was, no, it's more a statement. And the statement is, how come the dollar is up and gold is up? You remember, I'll try to rephrase this or at least rearticulate my thoughts. I would say, what did we know? We're in October. It was over a year ago. I remember it was the summer of last year. I said, everything's topsy turvy. What was blue is now yellow. What was pink is now orange. Things have changed. In other words, my little five icon expression of Bondi, Crudi, Dolly, Goldie and Vixie, their normalities have changed completely. That when the dollar went up, it used to be that when the dollar went down, Crudwell came down. When the dollar went up, Gold went down. When Gold was running sharply, the market has to be looked at as inflationary to the extent that very often you got the market moving as well. All of those are the Vixie index. Everything is out the window. Gosh, I wish I had that left side chart. I'm talking about just in one panel, in one window. So in that context, what we're looking at here is that the dollar has to do with the currency internationally, the currency, the premier currency. That's the reason why we remain long. That's the reason why I've said to you that the 107.35 high of the third, we pulled back for about eight or nine bars and yet the 9.3 moving out of the store goes strong in the daily and the weekly and the monthly. I'll be back because look at crude oil. I mean, look at Gold. It's a different thing. This has to do with war and I'll be back. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Hi folks, so I'm not able to just check on all my emails right now, I still don't have, I think I might have lost the one that goes to my TFNN account on one of my computers so others are a little slow but in the meantime let me just do a couple of things here. So you see this gold spiked to the upside, have a look at this chart. Since the technical Friday I'm going to do some of this based on Chapman Wave Methodology. I did get my chart on the left back again. Look at this green candle. We had a green candle like this back in a huge candle. This is back in May, I think it was, March, I'm sorry, I think it was March let me give you the exact date. March the 17th. This is a week of March the 17th. That's a weekly chart. So I'd like to maybe wait, why is that a weekly chart? Because I pressed on the weekly chart. I want the daily chart. The daily chart, that's where you want it. So this candle, it's one of the biggest candles I have seen in a long time. We had something similar to that way back in the 17th of March. Oh, that is the sort of that particular candle. And if you think about it and then what happened is you made a little dojo candle the following session pulled back and then it went sideways and then made novel new highs, but it did eventually go from the high that was made on this particular candle on the 17th of 2068. It did go all the way to 21 41. Yeah, 2143. P D dojo camera. We're always looking for D's and E's. There's a D, there's an E turn around there. D two bars later went up into the E and here's a peak D. That was a peak E. Got to get my sneeze out the way. And this is near a brand new gray leg A. The power of the first move in a leg A says you've got to watch this closely because either this is just an aberrational thing, some kind of a spooky stuff that goes on and then it just diminishes. I don't think so. I don't think this is a one-off or a two-day thing out there in Gaza and with Hamas I just know I don't think so at all. So I need to keep this in focus and say hey if the gold stocks start to move and some of their move dramatically in just a week and others actually as I said before others are just kind of ho hum. Newmont mining is one of those move very nicely. G-O-L-D G-O-L-D has moved pretty well from the 13 area to the 15s but this is all not in proportion to what you would expect under these conditions. So in fact without this whatever's going on in the Middle East you would probably see gold coming down even further. So we've got to keep that in mind. Now let me just do this here. So the dollar the question came up why is the dollar rallying and you add gold is two separate things that I've been saying that for a year over a year that you've got to treat every single aspect of this market separately that the unified scrabble board that you had before or I shouldn't say scrabble board let's say chess board is very different today. You've got even you've seen that even within a sector you've got some stocks that are doing fabulously in some in the same sector just ignoring what's going on. So I have to respect that. Now I need to just draw this in this technical Friday so this is a pattern that I always look at that's called the falling X formation. Why? Because it looks like an axe you've got the handle that goes up let me just find my chart of course I haven't got it up I'll get it up right now so this is the pattern that we always look at and you make lower highs and much lower lows and then all of a sudden it finds some footing and reverses up so let me just pull drag this across yeah so you go up up up up usually at a D or an E you start to pull back sharply because I had it but I took it away because it was starting to look messy right here that's the falling axe formation why because it looks like an axe I like to use things that are visually as accurate as they are but it goes up makes a little highs much lower lows suddenly finds support and it takes out that trend line when it takes out that trend line and the technicals improve it can then turn into a cup or a V-shaped formation to the upside and go all the way back to the previous high well it did that right there it did that right there it did that right here is a fantastic pattern if you can recognize it because it just gives you a sense of consolidation breather back up breather up and this is what we're looking at right now this one's different why because the technicals are way weaker even though the 9s over the 14 the magdies very weak the castings very weak this is the dollar in the daily but look at the weekly chart the weekly chart is still hanging in there I've got this as leg B in the chapter we methodology what we're looking for is if you get a buy signal to buy mode and everything about this in the weekly chart says it could fail but I have to call this a buy mode that's the reason why we're looking at this bifurcation that you've got what normally would be the dollar going up gold going down at this point the dollar is actually unchanged usually up but they two separate things they have different they have influences so the things that's influencing the dollar is the very same thing that's happening gold but for very different reasons one is the whole aspect of the lead currency for international trade you remember the dollar and bonds are huge volumes internationally much bigger than stock markets and gold is very important it has its flash that on fire it's usually for a nervousness reason so let's just do this I want to show you the EUR USD I am skipping a whole bunch of stuff that are written down to do today because the move that we're seeing in gold says you've got to be aware that there are considerations outside the normal market parameters that could impact our stock markets that's our meaning there western stock markets negatively at some point because if this continues at some point you're going to get a lot of nervousness about what's going to happen economically so when you're looking at the euro look at this down the way down this is a horrible it took out the left side low even as we're speaking it's below in the euro in the weekly chart and the monthly chart has got this arch formation so the euro is not showing the kind of strength that you would expect if things are turning around for USD JPY the match between the dollar's trajectory to the upside and the US dollar Japanese yen currency pair the yen's trajectory to the upside this is making a cup formation it is down 0.13 at 149.67 today getting to an area of resistance just as the dollar was getting to and we mentioned that the dollar was getting to an area of resistance but it is probably a peak D in the weekly chart but look at this this is the the large rectangle formation as I said today we talked a little bit about rectangles there's the large rectangle formation and this large rectangle formation is saying that we should go to just under right on or just above the previous high in the yen and that was back in July that was October of 2022 at 151.94 and we're at 149.66 very close I'll be back dollars up 162 the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven in hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI GDX, the dollar bonds, the South African rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com Tom O'Brien publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-4767523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Hi folks, I just want to show you this there was an interdent of the lie invention S.A.R.K S.A.R.K is the let me just type this in is the inverse of the A.R.K.K which is Kathy Wood it's her fund ARK Innovation ETF just I mean people talk about a five-year return well back in 2021 that was November so it's almost two years ago was at 125.86 it went down to 29 right up to 15 that's a pretty decent balance but now it's back to 37 so yes I think that this is still looking weak and that's the reason why I said to subscribers we're going to avoid some of these areas that I really want to get into a little later maybe a little later in the year where the lag is in the IWM that's the Russell 2000 or ARKK which has things like 3D systems etc Shopify I'm interested in it but not now not in this particular point and that's why we went long on a very short-term trading basis the three times long small position in three times long QQQ as well as three times long Dow I'm treating these as trades we've still got our short position from the Dow August the 1st to the exact high and the SMH is two points off the all-time high and that was also 1st or 2nd of October so what we're looking at here is I'm still of the camp that says a lot of work has to be done before we can make the kind of base that says this is the low for a multi-week rally not just a bounce and that's I think we're in the bounce phase could be completely wrong that's the reason why I'm quite prepared that at some point we will switch from three times long to we actually are long the diamonds in the long term from October of last year to just adding to that position rather than have something as risky as or something that degrades every single day at the end of the day like the three times long UDOW actually which we still have a position from October of last year but all I'm saying this I'm treating as a trade and you can see why it's necessary because this even this arc which would be a really good harbinger when it's trading I don't know what the price would be but I would just say the 200-period moving average right now is at 42 if this starts to trade for two or three weeks above 44, 50 45 that's going to be a different thing altogether but it hasn't got there it's not even close so that's a question that came in because I look at Nike Nike is trading right now and just Nike is trading up 72 cents at 99.95 a huge gap from the low it's very it's very unusual to have this kind of gap from a multi-year low and this went right down from the 112-ish area it slides all the way down to 68, 66 on the 28th of September the very next day I think it was earnings comes out fabulous gap up so the gap low is 94 and the gap high of the day before was 89.78 that's a huge gap and it's taken one it went one day underneath it closed just a fraction of underneath it that's usually not a good sign so I started walking in the 14th period moving average to 9 cross positive and here it is at 99 I think this is a very good sign in the shorter term for Nike but it doesn't negate the fact that the tacticals need so much work if it closes under 95 at any point in the next week and a half now I'm going to go all the way through October if at any time in October closes under 90 no no has to be soon if next week it closes under 90 95 yep under 95 that's going to say uh oh be careful because it could even fill the gap but if it takes two and a half weeks or more getting to the end of October to actually do that that says you know what Nike's turning the corner and that's a very important thing oh the 120 minute chart yeah I am talking monthly and yearly you want to get to the 120 minute chart uh this is a big spike this is a single leg A and then it pulls back and this becomes let me do it live it is taking technicians hour Friday where we do technical Friday on the Chapman wave methodology so that's an A that's a B I'll look at your question in a minute I'm just doing this D E and then it goes F G slash C and that becomes D and that becomes E that's the way I've got it right now um and what is your question we did have a peak G but remember this is your kickoff so every peak has to be in the Chapman wave this is your obligation just just to count each success of the higher peak so this is an A it pulled back didn't take out the initial starting point so that's still an A that's an A oh wait that's an A and a B that's an A that's a B I just chose to do it from here and that becomes A B by fraction C D I believe I don't want to do things arbitrarily that I was 9605 1130 on the uh 3rd of October 9605 and that is 96 oops 95 99 oh it was being covered sorry sorry sorry sorry that is the C and that is the D right there and that is the D and now we've got E F G and today we made G slash C goes to D it's the same thing so let me just do this yeah get rid of it so this is E right so this is F B F B this is G C always be prepared that a G C can go to a D and here's your D there's never an H so the next letter will be if you've got an alternate count D oh that's that makes it clear you know you might have a slightly different this is the 120-minute chart and where they start the 120-minute chart makes a difference so um thanks that's all I added to Nike puts yesterday um near the high expect to pull back um ah I don't I think we're going to disagree on this I think there's just enough strength in Nike right now the dating chart look A uppercase on the way up this is an A right here look at this maybe it's not 28 26 to 23 yeah this is look when you do this enough times you get to identify these things quite clear this is a B and that's a C um I think there's just a little more room to go but if they puts you're talking about puts on a weekly basis yes if you're talking about next Friday I think you will see a pullback in Nike everything's very good I actually wouldn't have taken the step to get the puts just yet I'd actually wait a little bit longer but even now the dollars get back but Nike is holding 70 once all right I'll be back in a moment for some questions that I'll answer in the final presentation you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading 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short-term trade for us going along even though we've kept our core short positions is that I wanted to see three things number one is I wanted to see how we close today being Friday because look the S&P and you know this wasn't the Roman candle yesterday's candle oh that went to the wrong chart let me do this quickly don't want to run out of time and have a great weekend folks see you on Monday let me just do this yeah look no that's not a Roman candle the body the actual candle body must be a half to three quarters above the wick low or the wick high if it's a reversal so this is not I could ever say some of the characteristics but it's not not a Chapman way Roman candle so if the S&P closes announced down eight you remember it was up big it was up to 4377 this is the area that says to me within two days if we fail to peak A or a peak B in the Chapman way with the do I have time yes I do in the pattern that we look at all the time over and over and over the dreaded H this comes down if the arch fails at an A or a B an A or a B and then takes out the left side low you've got to be careful so as it rolls over A and B it rolls over and this is the S&P you've got to be real careful because the angle of descent starts to accelerate as you can see it's coming down it starts to accelerate so all I'm going to say be careful here if you've got long positions just put in fairly tight stops if they're trading positions if they call positions then you deal with them we'll see you on Monday