 Okay very good morning to you Friday the 1st of May and welcome to the briefing a few things I just wanted to mention quickly before I begin the normal session One is if you're watching this and you're not subscribed to the channel I'd really appreciate it if you would just hit that subscribe button and you'll get the morning briefing updates every morning There's also when you get a moment some other interesting videos that you might enjoy as well in the Insight series and other playlists So do like and subscribe and the other thing is for those who are not aware of this program We do lots of Intense and now online given the COVID situation more one-to-one and small group training but we also have an e-learning portal which is more on demand and I did just update this yesterday, so I'm kind of showing it again but this is a kind of a rolling subscription service that we have and It's a accredited level for professional qualification So it does include if I scroll down a course where we go into Again, this is all video driven delivered predominantly by myself and the head of trading peers and we go into everything you need to know in order to Understand the market to analyze it better and ultimately to trade it better particularly from a fundamental global macro point of view so economics 101 different asset classes we drill into What you know what makes them move what is the underlying reasoning behind you know different Asset classes technical analysis risk management and so on But the other cool thing about this is that we do add is a lot of people say on the daily briefings. They they miss Sam So he is alive and he is well So he is COVID free for the moment touch wood But he does put in his daily trade setups onto the platform here So he puts in his his kind of still technical take on the day and he does that every evening ready for the next day ahead So that's obviously super useful And then I do what we call these macro now bite-sized sessions about certain topics that might be in focus So for example yesterday, here's I can what a lesson would look like on the more rolling content Two videos here how to trade the ECB event and I'll go through and I talk about the pre-statement Preparation the pre-press conference preparation crib sheets kind of hyperlinks to interesting research and so on So yeah, check that out if you if you get a moment the link for those who do want to take a look in a bit more detail I'll put into the description of this video, but let's get going Let's talk about markets and let's see what's going on this morning and equity index futures a little heavy Don't forget it is labor day across mainland Europe and what does that mean? It means markets are closed So no trade in the DAX the bund More common products there that I know you guys look at The UK is open as per normal The reason for that is it would normally be the same a bank holiday the early May Day Bank holiday today But because of the VE day 75th anniversary that is on the 8th. So next Friday. That's when They had already shifted the public holiday in the UK to that day in order to have an extended celebrations to for VE day So that's next Friday. You're gonna have to hold on for for another week if you based in the UK But that does have a meaningful impact there in terms of the overall volume is likely to be seen today And as I'm going to discuss I can run you through some of the news headlines And there's certainly a few things to catch up on from some aftermarket earnings Last night, which is kind of dampened the sentiment a little bit and what otherwise was a pretty phenomenal equity performance In the US indices throughout the month of April. So we'll also have a look at that as well But yeah, as I said, Apple and Amazon the two kind of tech giants coming out and disappointing from a kind of a top level the The first Amazon they warned of a possible second-quarter loss while Apple omitted from basically issuing their earnings Forecasts for the first time in more than a decade and we'll look at those numbers more shortly But as you can see the S&P on the right Down about 50 at the moment the NASDAQ down just over 200 the Dow I've swapped here where I'd normally have the DAX is down about 380 Otherwise though interestingly The equity move I do think you need to put into context And let's just have a quick look at that before we really drill down into those corporate earnings Into a little bit more detail. And here's here's the context I guess of the price action that we have seen over the last week or so and You know, we're back to quite a key level and and actually, you know It's quite incredible if you were to X out the oil negative shock that we had Back on the 2021st of April and then if you were to X out the earnings the Fed meeting and the Gilead information that we've had We are basically net zero We were training around 2850. We're now training at 2850. So despite seeing Quite a large degree of fluctuation, of course I mean this range here from the 21st to the high that we've printed, you know, that is nearly 10% that move Which is quite incredible But here we are back at quite a key technical point. You can see that support level That had held some of the price action through the 28th and the overnight session going into the 29th We just broken through there now So just getting a little heavy as Europe has come into market probably just digesting those corporate earnings from yesterday You can see here. I've marked up the Amazon Apple earnings created an aftermarket downward move Obviously a little bit more pronounced in the Nasdaq but dropping gapping down running down to those loads Which you've just retested and broken through and it looks like we've just gone through the respective S1 here Just now as well in the future. So if we continue to to push down, obviously I've already got these these levels kind of marked up from from yesterday The previous high that we had here would be a target on the 27th At the opening dip that we had on the open of Wall Street kind of coinciding around that spike as well We had them 26th in the overnight trade So that would come in at 28 43 and 3 quarters anything below that then 35 would be in the next area I'd look at and that was the high that we had on the run of a price activity shortly after the open on the 23rd So that's the kind of equity story. I mean one thing is look at it on a on a broader perspective This is what it looks like here on a daily continuation And despite obviously the kind of negative set of equity space this morning We are in fact or have done have seen the S&P 500 surge Almost 13% for the best mark month since 1987 Granted it does come after March was down 12 and a half percent So, you know, the harder they fall the faster they rise in that respect But yeah, quite incredible and obviously backstopping a lot of this has been This recovery the slowdown in coronavirus infections lots of countries now talking about their plans to Loosen those measures or at least the pathway to reopening the economy gradually. We've had massive stimulus initiatives Inaction by by central banks and governments, of course We've had some pretty pretty decent large cat earnings as well despite those two names I've just mentioned alphabet Microsoft Facebook all were positive in terms of their share price reaction helping Gilead Sciences with their experimental covert 19 Therapy potentially being a bit of a breakthrough And all of these have been positive catalysts and so a little bit just pull a pull off going into a month Then probably isn't too surprising And on that notion of month end, I did want to just point out a couple things just taking a look at the euro here and You know, let me just remove some of these ellipses where we were just looking at that range yesterday and If you were to tell me like why is the euro dollar popped like that Yeah, if you weren't looking at the chart in terms of the the time at the bottom You'd probably say well what the ECB must have said something well Actually the ECB was happening here and So this wasn't an ECB related move and it was quite interesting because you know with our guides on the advanced Professional program we're going through our training. We have basically a morning call and end of day review when we're all we all jump on zoom we basically discussed the day review trades as a group discussion and This was going into four o'clock and this move was going into four o'clock, you know, this particular very extreme candle here and just explaining that idea about obviously four o'clock is a very meaningful time in the FX markets because it's the London fix and Generally, then what you you tend to see is a little bit of a potentially erratic Movement and yesterday, of course as we had heard throughout the week there was a lot of month-end models flagging dollars selling into month-end and Certainly that became very pronounced at that period of time and you saw quite a coordinated move there where all dollar related Pairs were seeing a similar type of pop. You can see that evident as well in cable and around a similar time frame. So Definitely You know the FX fix Obviously fully read in the FT even week or two ago is being Investigated about some unusual suspect activity that was happening specifically in the euro dollar currency in the moments up to the fix and That does happen from time to time But also it almost gets exacerbated when you have let's say a month-end a quarter-end Situation from a seasonal perspective But then also as well you're going into a European holiday as well on Friday and so I think it was just a matter of that in combination with some technical breaches as well that just helped Promote that kind of movement. You can see here as well that kind of range higher that we had in Euro through the course of really the last couple of sessions just breaking as well just helping some of them momentum there Otherwise elsewhere the other interesting charts here from a overall Longer-term perspective. I say longer medium term gold despite the equity move that we've had You know, we have come off and we're down this morning, but you know, I've seen the context of things We're still heavily up over the course of the last couple of weeks And so gold continues to kind of fade a little Just looking here on a on a 120 candlestick. We're we've just broken through Technically that low that we were printing on the 21st. That was an error that held some of the price action up On the 20th and you can see has been an area as well in focus over the period of late March and early April The move down here to the s1 probably worth keeping an eye on today around that area of 1673 75 in the futures does encapsulate some of the the closing of the candlestick lows that we were seeing on the 21st and that also was a support area on the 9th 8th and 9th and also resistance back on the 26th and 29th of March So quite sure to see how gold's going to react today. Actually if we were to break through those levels obviously I'd target down at the Spike low that we had back on the 21st that comes in at 66, but I don't see any much reason why we wouldn't Very rapidly get down to 56 if we were to get break through These these near term levels here of support be on that point And quite close proximity to that s2. You've got 54, which was those previous highs You can see there on the 6th. I'd also be monitoring So it's gonna be quite interesting there And again, don't forget Europe out of the markets of generally speaking volumes can be low And as much as that can lead to perhaps more range browned More technically led sessions than You know to definitely within the lack of real calendar events today as well It can also exacerbate conditions if liquidity generally is more thin So definitely more toward the US session probably I'll be keeping an eye on that and then the oil market We just continuing to bounce here. I mean, it's just phenomenal really I mean if you think about it, that doesn't look much on the chart, albeit it looks fairly You know strong in terms of the the bid tone. I mean if I'm just having a look here I'd probably be keeping an eye on just generally The price activity now as we continue to move higher in that kind of channel But if you think about this from a percentage point of view And if we go from the low that we printed this week, you know, it's only a couple of days ago to where we got to the high That was yesterday, you know, we're up hundred and four percent in oil It's just it's just unreal But obviously the percentages somewhat warped by the fact that you know, we're trading at these such low levels But you know here This is going to mark then the first positive week that we've had In what otherwise has been a really tough months for oil and again Helping accelerate the upside has been some touted book squaring into month And we've also had some tentative signs of the cutting of production really starting to kick in those OPEC Cuts officially do start as of today as well first of May So oil up about 50 cents. So again one thing when I look at the the setup generally for this morning The news that is in play is Relatively old and by that I mean it's earnings that came out last night And so at the moment you've got equities a little softer, but gold is also down oil is up T-notes flat and the Dixie Is not really doing a great deal I mean, it's flat that essentially and that's reflected in the major currency pairs So for me when I you know come in fresh to late and I'm thinking at the news I'm looking at the charts technically you can see technically a couple of interesting things I'm looking at fundamentally. I would say I am absolutely neutral about this morning. I have no preconceived idea about how I think today is going to play out And I think that is an important point for any new traders, you know It's absolutely fine to be in that situation for me then I don't really Want to do anything not unless I see a And unexpected fundamental capitalistic or B You start to see and what I think will probably play out today a lot more of a technically led session and Then definitely with a US twist given the fact that most of mainland Europe is out the market so a degree of conservatism probably Warranted for this morning and then maybe look for any opportunity later when the US come in because really there's not a Great deal on the docket today quick run through them some of the headlines just to wrap up We have had a few different things From Apple and Amazon will kick off with Apple then they reported quarterly revenues that were 13 or Grew excuse me 1% but they didn't provide a forecast for the first time in more than a decade It's quite unbelievable really how Apple can get away with this They kind of went through that period of the last 12 months where they started to stop reporting on their unit sales for their iPhone for example, because they wanted to kind of Withdraw investors focus away from that And so they could try and attempt to improve their kind of product mix with services and applications rather than just the The physical phone which has always been the dominant Generator of the company's revenue but now they've said they're not going to Provide a forecast and quite unusual as it says it's the first time many years that's happened Tim Cook In the commentary where he spoke over the earnings or post He said it was there was some very depressed period in late March and early April But they saw a pickup in the second half of the month The company has raised its dividend They've expanded their share buyback plan by 50 billion dollars in late January Don't forget those we were looking at Q1 in late January The company was also affected by what was going on in China So don't forget the very depressed period they've had in late March and early April That was really when the global pandemic kicked in But apple if you think about it has many of its asian-based suppliers and manufacturers that were grounded to a halt And that was part of the efforts obviously in mainland china to Control contain and delay the outbreak of the virus and that also resulted in shipping delays for devices and supply constraints So apple have had a really tough quarter in that respect But that you know unless there's a massive stock market route more broadly on a Potential second wave in the second quarter on the virus, you know, I wouldn't probably expect then The company to have a much better Um Well, there's I guess less Risk of a kind of repeat of that happening albeit they've got a they've got to navigate the stormy waters of the economic reality Of the fact that obviously mass unemployment in america for example Um, but yeah, interested to see obviously they're getting their shops reopened as well quite key for for the consumer to have that touch and feel before making these large purchases It's going to be quite important for them as well going forward So their shares were down about three percent after market yesterday And then the other company of course is amazon now amazon Their profit shrank they said it may incur a loss in the current quarters It boosted its spending in order to keep logistics running smoothly during this pandemic Um, cover the stats here the coronavirus effort included spending on personal protective equipment enhanced cleaning of warehouses And stores operational changes to promote social distancing Um, they did go on a hiring binge Basically in the run up to this in mid-march knowing the lockdown is coming There was a temporary two dollar an hour hazard pay Raise for its hundreds of thousands of warehouse workers. So when multiplied like that It is the second largest private employer in america Behind I think Walmart So that cost them an extra seven hundred million dollars as well just to facilitate that even though it's only two dollars an hour per person um, so Yeah, the company It's just they're basically operating expenses is what is what's hurt them although they've Managed to have an okay performance if you actually check out what that operating Um, expenses look like here's the operating income in black as you can see going back to second quarter 2017 And then it's looking at their forecast range here in blue for q2 of 2020 So, yeah, I mean for for for me and I'm sure for you amazon has been an absolute lifesaver during this this lockdown Uh, but that comes at the costs for the company The one thing I would say though much more long term, of course when we've when we've got over this Pandemic situation in the next six 12 months I do think though that The world has changed You know talking quite top level I think that you know It's been quite liberating for a lot of companies to see that working from home is actually a viable alternative In terms of productivity I think a lot of companies traditionally very nervous of that outside of say the tech world In that sense And I do think that consumers behavior has changed a lot, you know out of necessity people using let's say amazon services And they have been in my opinion very dependable in terms of whether you know household goods as well as other services as well then Is this going to help promote and accelerate the long term trend in favor Of what amazon is best positioned for which is online shopping away from those traditional brick and mortar Companies which already have been suffering as amazon has become such a phenomenal success story Over recent years. So yeah, definitely remain Quite Positive for the company specifically given the situation and that they're in And how their position for the long term So yeah, some hard times now their shares were down fairly heavy actually About five percent in aftermarket trade and and that's why we did have to sell off that you can see In the overnight session from what's dampened then the the open for this morning In terms of in the in the equity market more broadly for us index futures As europe have come in Canada for today. What have we got? As I said, it's really quiet There's obviously nothing coming out of europe for the holiday for the uk mortgage lending and approvals But this sort of stuff's not really going to move the pound Looking at the manufacturing pmi final reading for the uk coming out nine nine thirty You've then got the us equivalent coming out this afternoon again These are all final readings with the u.s. Manufacturing pmi at three p.m. London time expected to be depressed But like all the other figures that we've seen I think people are kind of over You know the kind of the the the low ball figures that we're seeing I think can be quite easily digested by the market without too much of a of a fear at this point Baker Hughes rig count the operational rig count is is interesting at the moment because that's a key component for how quickly Naturally North american production is going to be decreasing and this coming amid all those other cuts that have been planned now from that OPEC plus agreements are worth keeping an eye on that and then from an earnings perspective You have got in chronological order some of the more Larger market cap names. You've got honeywell international at 11 30 You then got a Colgate palm olive that they're coming at just ahead of midday london Exxon mobile 12 30 and chevron at 1 30 are probably two oil majors to keep Keep on your radar How are exxon chevron going to perform? Well, I mean it's been a tumultuous time in the oil market, of course and Question mark there is is that you know oil prices move in real time and as to the company's share prices And so how much of that is already reflected in the share price? You know these negative numbers or loss of potential profit and uncertainty about the future probably a lot of it You know you saw that in BP who rallied despite their bad numbers a few days ago Both have already suspended their initial 2020 guidance in the wake of covid so Yeah, I don't think it's going to be a great deal of a shock to be to be quite honest But just as i'm talking I can see equity markets just having another little look on the downside. So the s&p Again, my kind of view here is just looking to just follow the existing trends really in the market unless something else changes So here is the s&p comes down Looking a bit more heavy. There you go. There's the test on that level And this is the way I think the day is really going to play out And if we just sit here now, this is the european push and reaction to some of the news overnight Perhaps this level holds we wait till the us come in We are in may now. So whether or not it kind of Unleashes the shackles a little bit off of the idea of that book square and going into month end If we were to move lower down as I said, I'd be keeping an eye on that 28 35 level And you move beyond that point and a deeper move You've got the s2 and then 28 12 and three quarters would be the low on the 24th I'd be watching. All right. That is it guys. So Have a good session ahead Have a great weekend I think the weather's going to be a bit better. So hopefully you can get out for some exercise or or your daily walk And I wish you all the best. All right guys. Take care