 The Federal Reserve has played a game of cat and mouse with the markets and even after Ms. Braynard's speech was on Monday was seen as being more dovish and the chances and probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week fell to 15% markets didn't continue to go up yesterday and many feel perhaps that the Yeah, recent volatility. They don't know will the lows in the Dow Jones be tested once more or will there be a direct continuation volume is back So the market must decide now if it wants to deny or accept The breakout the equity markets did pass back in August So if you look at the DAX for example, if you look at the Euro stock Index for European shares it broke out of a of the yearly Both the April highs broke about that and right now this could be a bullish test of that breakout If you look at the US economy and if you ask the question, is it Ripe for a rate hike then you could look at the poverty rate from the Census Bureau The poverty rate in the United States fell to thirteen point five percent after fourteen point eight percent in 2014 medium incomes rose by five point two percent to fifty six thousand five hundred US dollars from from the comparison year two thousand Sixteen with the year 2014 so there is a right some There's really some increase. It's the largest annual percentage point decline in poverty since the year 1999 But if you listen to Ray Dalio, which is one of the most closely watched hedge fund investors And one of the largest hedge funds actually Then he says that the economic environment is still too fragile to hike in September So he sees that okay after a first and second quarter GDP Which hasn't been very strong. He actually Expects that the US economy is growing by one and a half to two percent in the current quarter So that is too slow too fragile to get a hike done next week the IEA the International Energy Agency has Turned the page on North somewhat Has a new forecast for oil markets just one month after being relatively bullish and for just one month ago They expected that there won't be any surplus in for the rest of the year that there won't be any surplus in the world All markets for year 2017 yesterday. They had a new forecast They expect now that there will be a surplus in the rest of the year because that because Demand world oil demand has gone down meaningfully So supply will be more than the demand side and so there will be no equilibrium for the time being That's the same thing that the OPEC yesterday Actually said they expect non-OPEC production supply to grow strongly Because of new oil fields from Kazakhstan and other parts of the world And so they also expect that supply will be higher than demand and so it's very questionable actually If the OECD inventories which are at 3.1 billion barrels at a record high Actually if they will be Going down meaningfully anytime soon and that also means that the forecasts and prospects for the oil Markets are bearish for the time being so watch the 26th to the 28th of September there will be a the International Energy Forum in Algeria and Saudi Arabia wants to meet on the sidelines of that forum to talk about any production caps which would be a first step to To stop the increases in inventories, but that would not lead to any Decline in inventories that is only possible by more world growth