 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Hope you're doing well. Big news has broken just literally in the last hour or so and as you can see here I'm sharing a tweet from the US president who has tested positive for COVID-19 And we've seen quite a big reaction already in markets as I speak actually gold just breaking up a little higher here Session high is just going over the Overnight range. So gold has already rallied $25 here But before I begin I have Sam North our head of trade development with us. How's it going Sam? Yeah, good. Thank you. What a story to wake up to about it's 2020, isn't it? So nothing can surprise us. So yeah, no good to be here as usual on Friday, right? So look let me Let me start and I'll give a quick update on the charts first and then I'm going to run you through exactly the Trump news and a bit more detail and also What is the actual procedure here in this type of situation as far as who governs the US now? Where does it go from here? How does this impact the election? I'll talk about all of that in more detail So starting off then let's just have a look at these charts here You can see the market has stabilized a little bit when I first sat down at my desk this morning It was just after 6 a.m. The news had just broke and actually if I just put my S&P chart here On full screen so you can see this is the S&P and I'm going to put it on to this chart here because this is one I've been marking up and annotating as the last three days has been evolving It's been such a seesaw a couple of days for the S&P 500 predominantly based on Will they or won't they come together with some kind of compromise on Capitol Hill over the stimulus program? Which I can say that is that is still looking unlikely at this point in time But you can see the the most severe candlestick print here coming on the back of that Trump tweet where he said he and his wife have both tested positive for COVID-19 and are beginning to quarantine and start their recovery process But you can see here the breakdown Out of what was a key technical level that was in focus and did provide a decent level of error support in the overnight Asia Pacific session again Asia a little bit lighter than normal China out obviously for Golden Week Some of the other areas as well in the Far East were also closed for market holidays But when the news broke came down very rapidly Early as Europe came into the market Close proximity to the lows that we were printing back down onto the 30th of September Which was on Wednesday and we've recovered a little bit since but a little bit of risk off trade Then observed across the board as I mentioned gold here has already shot higher We were trading down around 1895 before the news we've now just printed a high at 1920 so pretty sharp move already the currency markets There was initial dollar bid however It's reversed a little bit and so major pairs have just stabilized the move probably not as pronounced so far in the currency market Definitely more equity Focus the DAX consequently is down about hundred points and then WTI crude also just edged a little lower Here you can see kind of moving in tandem with the stock sell-off and quite an interesting I guess cap to price here I'm just given the way of the lows that were printed yesterday European afternoon You can see a break on that you got a little heavy ran down to the s1 in that fast money move this morning And it's just bounced back up to find some resistance to those previous areas of support now in crude futures fixed income markets and as you would expect and fitting Intandem with gold and reverse inverse to equities catching a bit of a bid The US 10 year up already to its R1 to find a bit of resistance in the futures up for ticks The boom futures up at 11 this morning But look let me switch over my screens again. I'm gonna just run you over a little bit of my initial take here it still is pretty early actually and I've been trying to think about a Number of different things to try and make it as useful for you guys as possible So let's start at the beginning. What exactly is the current status? Well, the the kind of chief physician for the president has said that rest assured I expect the president to continue carrying out his duties without Disruption while recovering so I guess you know making some assumptions It would appear then at this present point in time the president's health is fine But definitely this is one of the main points of which I would definitely be monitoring in one of the ways I guess in a very rough sense that I could Suggest monitoring that is by looking at his frequency of tweets Now talking about this with Sam this morning obviously when he was debating It's almost as if someone else takes ownership of his account and can tweet at the same time but I think the kind of The way of which he himself tends to write his tweets in terms of the vocabulary and the language I think is quite recognizable So given the fact that he was actually supposed to be scheduled to hold a rally in Florida Tonight followed by two more rallies in Wisconsin on Saturday this weekend the former of course being such a pivotal Battleground for the likely outcome of the US election. And so if he's not tweeting Multiple times over the next couple of days that for me would be a slightly worrying sign that perhaps his health is Deteriorating at that point. So something to just be to be aware of There's a there is a reference point, of course other heads of state have contracted COVID-19 Probably one of the most recognizable ones for us is our own prime minister here in the UK Boris Johnson At the time he deputized Foreign Secretary Dominic Rab to handle some of his duties when he entered intensive care Remember, this is right back in the beginning of April He never though formally transferred his power at that point in time even though he was He his health reaction to the the virus was actually quite severe But for Trump I would say that you know even not being in the office doesn't mean he can't tweet given such ease It is to use and access that platform a couple of other finer points here the US Constitution's 25th amendment Allows Trump to hand over control to the vice president and then reclaim it as soon as he declares himself Able so that's just something to be aware of it has happened in previous presidents before I think George W. Bush did it when he was receiving surgery a previous points during his tendency in the White House so That hasn't happened yet, of course, but there is already predefined kind of procedures in these types of situations if it should become necessary Following that through if Trump and Pence the VP are both unable to fulfill their duties neither then could evoke the 25th amendment The Constitution instructs Congress to legislate a line of succession Which was most recently updated in the Presidential Succession Act that goes back to the late 1940s That puts the Speaker of the House of Representatives Next in line for the president So if they were both incapacitated Trump and Pence and we don't know it's nothing to suggest that would be the case for Pence at this point Then Nancy Pelosi would be the interim president if you can believe that so Definitely worth thinking about these things As they continue to play out now the next televised debate is actually not Trump Biden is going to be the VPs and that's scheduled for next Wednesday the 7th Trump Biden round two was scheduled for the 15th of October In Miami and then the third round on the 22nd of October. So whether or not that happens Is obviously yet to be seen because now he's going to be going into quarantine self-isolation And so on so Yeah, I was talking about it with Sam this morning It's interesting. We were having We were kind of talking about well, look, let's try to release our mind a little bit What could be the play here? We know Trump likes to push To the edge of what's possible to try and frame a certain situation Uh, a couple of things we were coming up with one was the idea about You know the timing seems just so good for Contracting COVID-19 And then being out of action perhaps for two weeks to then come back and almost appear triumphant Like a hero coming back from the ashes and it kind of you can just picture that kind of The kind of the way he would spin that in his favor So could he be faking the entire thing? I mean, it's a it's an elaborate Thing to try and to cover your tracks, I would say But but who knows? I mean certainly I was trying to think of ways of which and even if it was real How could he now spin this if I was working for him as a chief political Strategy officer, I'd be thinking right. How can we turn this into a real positive? So that'd be you know something I'll I'll definitely be thinking about the weekend and hopefully on Monday I can piece something more together for you But yeah, Sam anything that that you think and you'd want to add but I know you said as well What if Biden gets COVID Yeah, I mean that would just I mean with 2020 I guess that's kind of to be expected something crazy Like that is going to happen, but I'm really interested to see the The developments and the stories that come out for the rest of the day It's going to be such a headline driven day much like we saw in the pound yesterday Um, yeah, I want to see how You know, no, obviously fingers crossed Trump does recover of course, but how bad and severe it is because obviously just being diagnosed Is that first step? Isn't it? You know, is he going to be struggling or is he actually completely fine? We'll be really interesting to see certainly the weekend is going to be headline headline headline, isn't it? Yeah, yeah, I mean definitely You need to be keeping an eye on IG have that weekend down weekend markets They're always a good indicator generally that kind of closure of major markets to see how we're open if we gap Lower, let's say if his health deteriorates or the opposite and actually I know everything appears absolutely healthy and fine It's just a precautionary measure is quarantining and there's no immediate effects and we could gap up quite quite significantly I mean in terms of the other news that's out there before I kind of let you look at the chart, Sam The house passed a 2.2 trillion democrat only fiscal package last night Um, 214 to 207 saw no republican support as you would imagine. They're still quite far apart on this Chart differences still remain the trump administration rejecting the scale of a democrats want for state and local authorities Pelosi demanding the end of tax breaks um So that she said is devoted to only helping the wealthy So there's still the stimulus isn't coming which obviously adds a little bit of Negative headwind given there's been some ebb and flow of positivity and negatives to negativity throughout the last couple of sessions So definitely it could be an interesting end to the week in that front because we've also of course got payrolls coming And the last thing that you want is a as a bad payroll number with a lack of forthcoming stimulus with trump if we get updates that his Let's say pertaining to his health Perhaps deteriorating it could be quite an interesting Close here and you would be looking for a general risk of continuation of the moves that we've seen The other points that i'd look out for definitely is that this news its timing of the news when it broke um The u.s. Probably haven't really Um reacted to it as yet. So when they start to come in early, so london time half 10 a.m 11 a.m I'd definitely be mindful of potentially a second type of Feedthrough into this move now whether or not we get a repetition It's yet to be seen but be particularly mindful if you're in any open position going into that north american crossover The only final thing sam really i know you can incorporate this into the charts then is brexit and yesterday was a A real classic day Of why you must use twitter if you're going to be a real agile headline driven Kind of intraday trader because all of that Source related comments exclusive comments It doesn't really come through a lot of it through traditional channels like news terminals Like bloomberg and reuters for example, it comes via twitter This journalist want to break the scoop before it then becomes public knowledge and twitter was great for that yesterday So michel barnier Will meet this morning with british counsel heart david frost to discuss whether they're in a position to enter final intensive stage of talks And this comes obviously after bross's launch legal action yesterday against the uk for breaching that withdrawal agreement now with that I was quite Firm myself yesterday when the market was coming off I did think it was a little bit unnecessary because i've always thought personally that this whole internal market bill Was brought about by the uk as leverage for these talks rather than something that would ever actually be Inactions and so europe coming back looking to pursue legal action against it. I think it's all just part of a side Issue to actually the talks that are continuing at this point in time And we obviously saw that that ft germ is breaking in the market reverse started to valley yesterday afternoon, so Couple of points here Definitely be monitoring twitter. I wouldn't really want to be In too big a position of size would be my recommendation if you're trading sterling today because you saw yesterday You can get caught out quite quickly My words of advice here also would be if there is a tweet or a breaking piece of news And if confirmation of entering tunnel talks or the opposite and we go strongly bid or offered Then just be mindful of proactively managing that trade quite quickly look for a nearest and clearest way to take off Either a large portion of the trade if not the entire thing Because as we saw yesterday competing news agencies do love to then break counter or contradictory stories And that can lead to a big whipsaw price action the market can flip on itself quite aggressively So if you're in that environment, you've got to you know, not hold on to things for too long Don't try and be overly optimistic here. Just manage that position accordingly and Johnson has set that october 16th deadline to reach a deal as I've said before. I think that's unlikely to happen now And eu counterparts though have said they're willing to wait for longer And haven't ruled out continuing into november and that's what we heard from the french government official Of course yesterday. So whether or not they have Agreement to go into more formal talks kind of similar to this week, but going forward say next week or the week beyond all these so-called tunnel talks Whether or not these happen could be a definitive thing short term for the pound But again, don't forget. You've got payrolls at 130 us bachelors at three feds harker a voter at two Are all things as well to be done the lookout for as well as that crossover period so the us reaction interpretation for the trump news when they come in Okay, so I'll let you have a look at a few charts in the technical perspective Nice one. Thank you, Anthony. Let me just share my screen. We'll start by having a look over the The us equities. I need the the host to Yep to share thing. I think it's going to be A reactionary kind of day and what I want to mean by that There's going to be headlines out not not just non farm payrolls and people speaking but also updates on on how how trump is doing and brexit Said and obviously one of the most important things about trading if not the most important thing is self awareness If you as a trader are someone who struggles, you know, uh, when markets are Faster paced or you're reacting to data or or whatnot or you don't have to trade And this could be a day where you do just sit on the edge. However, some levels to be aware of for me The the night for september low across the board on equity is massively important and the reason Being is it was just such a good support point initially on the ninth We then broke above it the beginning of the week and it's turned out to be a really good floor most like Well, clearly more clearly in the down but s and p as well So for me further selling will take place. Should we close below there? And then I think it's a quick move towards 32 just based on how the chart would go headlines are going to move these things it's important On your your twitter at least have the tweak deck on another screen if you can To the upside on the the daily charts, you know, I've been talking about this for a long time 34 14 I'm still with the view we finish above there. It is all-time high season so going to a more intraday chart for the s and p before we have a look at the Dow and the NAS that you can just see already the importance that we had from the overnight On the 30th last day of the quarter a month. That's already turned to be Since there's a key level the market is looking at it So if we push above we can then look to continue and push on maybe to towards the Low that we had from yesterday evening coming in around on the future is 33 50. So that's another key level You saw Anthony mark up that level on oil, which will come over to in a moment That's turned out to now be a ceiling and price pushes lower So market is when market is looking at these levels for some sort of guidance And Continuation will be in order if that does Push on and we we break through I think we haven't you know looking here had a 15 minute close below 30 307 So that would be key But then just be aware of the low of the week is just a tiny bit below that the Dow Jones as mentioned The ninth or third September low is is really key Was then the low that we had a couple of days ago and almost today You can see here. There's still the European open to deal with there's still the us open to deal with there's headlines as non-farm payrolls You know the day absolutely isn't over and we could absolutely get back below this 27,000 sort of handle and then price can you know push to the downside But it's much like the s&p in that the levels just above their trading You can see most likely, you know get acted some sort of resistance on the way up So just be careful put your charts I would say for the the more important levels on your 60 minutes those previous lows And they're going to act as or should act to some sort of resistance and lines in the sand above there Then maybe there's been some positive headlines and we can start to see push to the upside If not, it's an opportunity right now where people will be looking To potentially get short the NASDAQ. I haven't actually Changed The daily chart for quite some time is that line in the sand, which is pretty much the ninth of september Sort of low you can see around here, but it's also the 21 and the 50 day moving average That now we've broken above Both of those have acted as support the top end of that resistance Which is the same for the s&p around 34 14 the high that we had back on the 8th 10th And 16th of september that has been a double top now The end of the week is going to be fascinating. What happens over the weekend is going to be just as fascinating I mean, what a week it's going to hit. Well, well, what a future is open. It's going to be on on sunday It's uh, you can see here when the euro did But in early trade, I mean the story sort of comes out around Well as it sort of does early hour six actually pops lower But then there's actually since the headline pushed to the upside along with the pound It is it's slightly choppy, isn't it? Do you necessarily want to focus on this right now? I think with the pound Brexit headlines, that's your focus if you want to trade those there were definitely opportunities yesterday to do that If that's the kind of trading off Martial levels up just above the pivot you've got a solid level resistance, which cap price to the upside Yesterday, obviously you've got the low today But I would say now you've got to be focusing on those lows from yesterday And then also to the upside what has proven to be a good level in the early hours yesterday literally 24 hours ago Around here 129 54 Those would be the three points of interest for me today on the pound that I'd be looking to UK use it as resistance or an opportunity to get long to the next level Should headlines come out the euro as we were just on you can see has been pushing up It's a similar kind of level just above its pivot I think is a very key resistance point So be aware that just because it's above the pivot doesn't necessarily mean it's going to push on You do have the higher of last night Late last night I should say just a tiny bit above that these markets on the daily charts are also If not more fascinating than those of equities, you can see this whole week We've been grinding back up to what was super level support. We break through we hit that yesterday as resistance Technically speaking, it's a great point now to look to get sure Do we close the week below if we don't and we close above? Well, to be honest, I see 119 pretty quick for the pound Let's just bring that in the low that we saw last week is held Fantastically the balls want to see price get above 130 almost did yesterday headlines would help that today The close above 130 technically as quick as we see 119 and euro I see 132 in the pound However, these highs hold and we can start drifting back lower 128 to the downside a very key point as well That if the bears want to take control They want price below that as well quick look over at gold and oil just to To wrap things you can see gold is is enjoying it acting as a safe haven today And with the dollar slightly weakening funnily enough over the last 30 minutes or so like you saw in the euro and the pound has helped her It push on above its high of the week high of yesterday big resistance coming in just Well almost on the high of the day 1925 you can see the highs of the 20 seconds So worth keeping a watch on that and even a break above that you then do have the previous low for We really did break down on the 21st that comes in on the futures around 1931 So some big levels to to be aware of all the way up for for gold I think from a you know You're happy to stay long gold as long as it stays above yesterday's high If equities reverse if there's positive headlines regarding trump and and the covid announcement Gold is most likely to come under pressure and then you know break back below that high However on the daily chart, it's you know, you can see the importance Oh, I don't want to modify that you can see the importance of the low that we had Last week so like with the pound like with the euro like we have equities They all found a very solid level of support going into the back end of last week And then obviously the end of the month and quarter But then looking at the daily chart look how key this whole support point is Gold balls need price above there today is an opportunity for that to happen And if it does Then it can really sort of stretch its legs next week He would say also be aware trend line coming from the the high of the 18th of august Would obviously come into play quick look at oil Let's get Anthony's level one very key one to To have and what a level it is being you can see here by just bringing the pivots as well Yesterday's low turns out to be you know an area of resistance and you know It's almost back down at the low another level the market is looking at So that said if we can get you know decent close above there That's when you can get a run to the upside and then suddenly you're looking at 38 11 And then the high of the sort of the the 545 candle 38 50s and then the highs of the day However, it holds and then we do start pushing down again and obviously you can see on the daily chart We're not far away Let's remove that from the low that we had last month You can see coming in Around 36 41 so keep a watch on all of that as an area support A weekly close below there, which isn't out the question would obviously not look very good for for oil traders at all but Anthony i'm expecting a A pretty headline driven day. So I hope you're you're on your toes You're on me on you Yeah, thank you sam for looking around the the chart. So I hope people found that useful But I just wanted to say I'm I'm sharing the youtube channel here And I know this is where most of you guys are watching this So don't forget to subscribe and me and sam and a few of the other guys. We're going to go live To cover non-farm payrolls But also of course we can give an update at that point in time early into the us session about how things are playing out Because I'm sure things will evolve potentially as the us starts to wake up and come into the market. So What should we do sam? One o'clock london time? Yeah, yeah, it makes sense to me. I think it'd be It could be a completely different story by the time you go live in markets. So Yeah, I'm actually really looking forward to it, but one o'clock sounds great Okay, good stuff. Well, um, we'll see you guys later on and uh, yeah Otherwise if we don't speak to you before have a good session ahead and have a great weekend Thanks very much guys