 The worst markets I've ever traded. I'm talking about going back to 9-11, I'm going back to all the way down to the mortgage mess. The one thing that they had in common over and over and over again is... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is doing well. So crazy day today in the markets. You had a major, major reversal today in the middle of the day. The more important part, and this is kind of what we want to talk about from the technical point of view, two days ago we had our first close below the 200-day moving average, obviously a very, very bearish sign. Friday we continued, right? Under day two, underneath the 200-day moving average on the Qs, very, very bearish sign. So last night when we went in on the overnight futures on the cash session, we started seeing the Dow and the Nasdaq futures up about 150 points. And that was a perfect scenario coming into today's session because again, the last thing you want to do if you are a permable, right, whether it's subconsciously or not, the last thing you want to do is buy stocks into strength at the market because again, the longer we stay below the 200-day moving average, the higher probability they're going to get rejected. Instead of holding its gains overnight, the futures went red and they went red very, very quickly pre-market. So instead of all of our watch list last night, we talked about that on the video, you know, Airbnb's of the world and a second-day play on Tesla and all that stuff and all these other good things, instead of all that stuff kind of being on the table, everything got whitewashed very, very quickly and stocks started accelerating very, very aggressively today at the open and they held that way all the way to the pre-market session. The one thing that I do know, okay, and we talked about this all the time, the most important part is to understand there's only one breakdown, there's only one technical breakdown, there's only one technical breakout, everything is always after that continuation. And the one thing that we constantly talk about and constantly remind is if you've been watching this video, you kind of know. The further a stock is away from its breakout level to the upside, right, has a higher probability of coming back in and a stock is the further it is from the breakdown point of view, the higher probability it'll snap back at a certain point. Again, that's why there's only one pivot again and then there's everything else is continuation. So we started the day today pretty big in the whole on the indexes and the first thing that I kept on reiterating the point is I look, we're day three underneath the 200-day moving average and the one thing we keep on saying to people all the time and it makes so much sense when you realize it, the worst markets I've ever traded. I'm talking about going back to 9-11, I'm going back to all the way down to the mortgage mess. The one thing that they had in common over and over and over again is no matter how bad the market was, there's always violent moves back to the upside. And we saw that on Wednesday, we saw that on Thursday, and we saw that on Friday. And every single time they kept on trapping, right, they kept on trapping longs, they wouldn't let them out. The next day they would kill them again. But the one thing we kept on reiterating to the point was this is day three, right. So if the breakdown on the cues were 368, and now we're looking at the cues at 338, you're talking about 30 handles, 20 handles, 15 handles from three days ago from the breakout level. So it was very, very important to understand the breakdown on the cues on the 200-day moving average the first time versus a breakdown of the cues continuation of the third day is completely two different scenarios, is completely due to different trades. And the one thing that I kept on saying is, look, the value to, right, the value is to the upside, right, the values to the upside. And then we have to read, you know, we kind of want to see exactly what happens next, because again, it's like a rubber band. If you take the rubber band and the oranges of the rubber band, and you just stretch them out, right, stretch them out, stretch them out, stretch them out. Eventually the middle, right, the middle is not the middle anymore, the middle is all the way here. So if you let go of the rubber band, what do you think is going to happen? It's going to stop back. And that's exactly what happened today. The Dow was down 1,000 points. The Nasdaq was getting killed. Everything was getting, just getting absolutely destroyed. But slowly, but surely kind of echoing, kind of building on this echoing, I wanted to make sure we don't get trapped because again, we're far away from the breakdown price. And we do see there, there's really aggressive rallies throughout the day in any even disgusting market, the worst markets of all. And that's kind of what happened today. We started seeing little by little strength coming into the market. We saw, we saw NET, right, one of the names that got hit very, very aggressively. One of the first growth names that got absolutely destroyed. We saw shop come out with a PR and slowly, but surely all these names started going green, little by little. And the one thing that the market is, it's a very sensitive environment. It's shoot first, ask questions later. It's a very, very copycat sorghum environment. So when these things started going, everything started waking up as well. And we were watching Amazon literally all day. It just wasn't going down. It wasn't going down. It wasn't going down. It was down a lot, but it's again, it kind of mirrored the Nasdaq 100 for three days in a row. Here was the breakdown, right? Two days ago at 3124, at 2,700, it's a completely different animal. And slowly, but surely just like once started going green, they all started getting green. Granted, it was towards the end of the day. And this happened all after 3 o'clock. But again, beggars can't be chooses in the market like this. You can't just sit there and take a stance in the market. If there's no technical reason or there's emotional reason, or there's any other fundamental reason to take that stand. And slowly, but surely the bulls got very, very aggressive. I tweeted out around 2 o'clock and I said, listen, I wouldn't be surprised in the next day or so. We were going to have a thousand point move 500,000 point move on the Dow, just because the point of the rubber band effect. And if you look at the cues here, you see exactly what happened here. Here is the rubber band. They started stretching it out. They went all down here and they snapped it back. And in the process put in a hammer. If you guys remember the last time they put in a hammer was right over here. Remember off the 50 day moving average, they put in a hammer and a hammer again, if only guys who are brand new to trading, a hammer is the most bullish short term sentiment you can have for anything. Whether it's an ETF or stocks, whatever the case may be. And it should give a little bit of relief, you know, the next couple of days. And if you look at the 50 day moving, excuse me, the 150 day moving average that was on January the 10th, it had a nice three day bounce back into supply. Now guys, just keep this understanding. I do believe we have a really, really good shot of a dead cat bounce tomorrow. And in a perfect world, what would love to see happen is we get kind of a week open, right? A week open, they trap on the previous channels, aggressive shorts get trapped very, very early. They go red to green, they start taking out today's channels. And we get to move all the way back to the five day moving average. Now keep this in mind, this is when we always play doubles advocate, the five day moving average is still underneath the 200. By no means does anybody turn around and say, hey, today was a bottom. Maybe it is, maybe it's not. But it's not our role to guess. We can't be naive to think that just because we've seen a hammer, this is the bottom. Just ask the people who bought the, you know, who bought the hammer here, who didn't make any sales on a tradeable rally for two, three days, if that was the bottom as well. So again, at least we have a point of reference right now on the Qs. 334 is definitely going to be the line in the sand. Our goal for tomorrow is play out a scenario that we could take advantage on some really, really aggressive, overly extended short term names that could potentially rally back to the five day moving average. And then we'll take it from there. So our goal wash out tomorrow, right? If there's a wash out tomorrow, trap, go red to green, second entry, opening range highs, and hopefully we can get that 500,000 point rally. So we can possibly get a move all the way back to here, roughly 360 on the Qs. That's the best case scenario. If we gap up tomorrow, it'll be a little bit tricky because the last thing you want to do is have a scenario of a gap and go underneath the 200 day moving average. The cheat sheet for any sell bias market is if you're above the 200 day moving average risk is on, you could go long. If you are below the 200 day moving average, the last thing you want to do is start building up inventory for a longer term play. Maybe that's the bottom. Maybe it's not. But the point is, it can give you a tradable bottom. It can give you a move back into the next supply zone on this declining five day moving average. But until and we said this last night in the video as well, until we get over, right? Until we get over the 200 day moving average, you can't use the word long term hold because long term hold technically does not exist underneath the 200 day moving average. So when you start looking at charts for tomorrow, don't get too creative. Anything that put in a hammer today, which is basically everything, anything that put in a hammer today that is trying to confirm today's channel's tomorrow that has room to the five day moving average, that's what you want. So Amazon is a name that you definitely want. Because again, if you believe we can get back to the five day moving average, this thing has 150 points worth of room. If you look at a name like Nvidia, for example, right, it put in a hammer, it has room, right, has eight to $12 worth of room to the next five day moving average. And that's my point. You see how they keep on rejecting, they keep on getting back to the five day rejecting back to the five day rejecting back rejecting back rejection. So let's see if we can get back to the five day moving average as well. A name like clock that had a crazy big run today already to the five day moving average. Let's see if it can confirm to get back to the 10 day moving average. So our plan tomorrow is take advantage of oversold channels that could potentially have a dead cat day two bounce of hammers into the five day moving average and take it slowly but surely day by day, obviously the dynamics of the market can change like that right on a dime. But the least we have a plan, we have an opinion, we're not going to deviate from that opinion and let's see if the price action plays out. As you can imagine, we did a lot of waiting today, right? We did absolutely a lot of waiting today. Oops, wrong box. We did a lot of waiting today and the pivot started popping up towards the end of the day. Here was Amazon 2853 rejected twice if it builds can spike. Amazon went to 2900 Tesla finally woke up off. They started building off this 903 level went to about 930 and slowly but surely now everything is set up for tomorrow. Is it going to play out that way? Look, life is not perfect. The market's not perfect. But at least you need a course of action. You need a plan in hand and you have the patience to watch it executed. Guys, God bless. Stay safe. The market is aggressive. Very, very tradable. As long as you have a plan, you stay calm and you're thinking with the reality that's in front of you, not the reality that you want. Guys, God bless. Have a great night. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care. Have a great night.