 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, November 9th. I'm chief muralist John Ensworth for Longmont Public Media. Wednesday the 16th will be our last quarter moon. I actually wasn't feeling well the night of the Lunar eclipse, so I saw a little nip out of it in the beginning and that was it. Next time, that was a rough hour of the night to try to see an eclipse. The sun's got some monster sunspots on it. These are still rotating towards the meridian, so they'll more directly point at Earth over the next few days. As the drought goes, we get just a little worse on the plains and we get a little better on the western side. So the western slopes are right now loving this pattern because the highest elevations westward are the ones in beneficial snow and low elevation rain. Nationally, there's not much that changes from this week to next. There's not a lot of evaporation. When the temperatures are this low and there's a lot of cool air, it's going to overtake the country soon. And even recently, we've had lots of cool air in the central part, so drought conditions just don't change much. Back after a long summer and fall is the snow-water equivalent in the state of Colorado report. Yay! And so just coming up the black line here is the current reading. The green is the median peak. We've had monster years in the past and pretty bad years as well, and we're kind of shooting up through here. So right now we're slightly above normal, but the amount of snow in the mountains is still very small. But that's all that's to be expected. Connect the severe weather animation. We will just add to this so you can watch the line grow as we did last year. For precipitation, we did a little better than the last seven days. We got, had things to an inch or so around Boulder, Belongment, a few other spots down here. Eastern Plains again missed it out, but the western slopes got plenty. For severe weather, going Wednesday, we're in the clear west of us, not so much, and the front passes and vanishes down to the deep south and the east coast. Some of that is going to be with Michelle. So there is, I think it's Michelle and Nicole. Oh gosh, I forgot. Too early in the morning. Surrey is a tropical system. It's a hurricane. Just by the time we record this, it's making landfall near Miami, north of it, I believe. Out here we have snow in the mountains and a front coming down. That front's going to cool us some after Thursday. There's the system with this heavy rain coming in through northern Florida. It becomes extra tropical as it goes through the Carolinas and into Virginia, and we are high in drive by Friday. For smoke, not much. It's a little bit of stuff up here. It's a little teeny bits sneaking into the west, but it shouldn't be noticeable. Our normal highs and lows are dropping very quickly now from 55 to 50, 27 to 22, and you can see that the temperatures are expected to be hovering really low in this window. So we are going to see, except for Thursday, 10 days or so below normal temperatures. And it's not until we get about five days out that some chances of snow or rain return. For Wednesday PM, we can see there's a big trough in the west and a ridge in the east. You can kind of see that pattern in the clouds. Here's our hurricane coming in, pretty ragged. It's not a really fantastic, healthy hurricane. And that's that same pattern Wednesday with the trough from the west. Southwest flow of loft and a big ridge in the east with that topical system down there. Wednesday PM, we have all the snow in the west, big low on the eastern plains, but no moisture to act on. So you'll see the clouds over the top of the mountains making the rockies look taller. But that's about it. There's our hurricane coming in. Most notable, the next little warm period will be Saturday. It's not much of a warm period, but we have a little ridge coming through before another trough. So let's put, don't forget. So our next notable cold front is actually the next Saturday, November 19th, where the temperature is 24 to 25 degrees below normal. So if you're going to try to do something outside this week versus next weekend, I would plan for this weekend. Get her done. That's to put it in motion. Here comes our trough. It's passing so we don't have any chances of precipitation. Here comes that weekend short ridge. And the next trough comes in. There's really no moisture for it to act on and it's going way south of our state. So all the energy is down in southern Arizona, New Mexico and into Texas. And the next one spins up and then drops down again into southern Arizona, New Mexico. So we're on the wrong side of the flow on the cold side of the jet stream, basically. So next Friday, Saturday, there's a trough kind of reconnecting. Very strong north winds in the cold air in and that's kind of the story. So take a look at the temperatures. There's a cold front Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures go way below normal for all of the west and spreading into the east. It's almost the entire nation, except for Arizona and right around there. But even they get chilly, except for New Mexico there. Monday, beginning of the week, there's just cold air cleaning here. Oh, very cold air. Wednesday the 16th and the colder just keeps getting reinforced. There's another big shot coming down Friday, the 18th warmth trying to hold on to Florida, but that's about the only state. And then there's a super cold next weekend. So it's time to get the bigger coats out. The gloves, hat, and like that. We're skipping the water vapor or precipitable water. Thank you. Because it just doesn't tell us as much right now. Here comes that hurricane coming in. It races up the east coast. You can see how high and dry we are. Even though both storm systems are passing, they're down south of a snow in Amarillo, Oklahoma City. There's snow in Four Corners area, then down into Albuquerque, Las Cruces. And then another big wave coming down next weekend, but you can see the precipitation part of it just falls apart. Even though the cold air does arrive. That's disappointing. Maybe that'll change, but now it looks pretty dry and cold. So the next five days, we have just very light precipitation, most of it in the western slopes. Here is, is that correct? It's checking. Got it right. Yes. The amount of snow is four, six inches, seven inches. And nothing right down on the I-25 corridor or really the northeast. Just touches of snow. The next 10 days, we might get a little bit, five hundredths of an inch or tenth of an inch. And snow, I was hoping to get down before that happened. Snow is very minimal there too, maybe one to two inches, three maybe, if we're really, really lucky. We're in the bank on it. So Wednesday of 65, Thursday begins the cool down of 51. Look at the nighttime temperature is getting into the teens as that cold air comes in. Friday struggles to get to 40. Saturday, Sunday are the warm spot with that ridge going by in the mid to upper 40s. And then night times return to the teens again with beginning of the week next week. Highs in the 30s and a little chance of snow. So yep, this is it. It's time to start feeling like winter. Here's our path of Nicole. I had it wrong anyways. Coming into Florida probably costing here. Some models have it going back over the ocean. I may be getting a little more energy even if it has one foot in the ocean. I can help a little bit, keep it stronger before it goes up over Atlanta and then into the Carolinas or Virginia. Its intensity is cat one. Some might jump to cat two and the models support that and I don't think it did. I think now we've had landfall. It was category one. Its intensity for mostly models drops down very quickly to topical storm strength and then extra tropical. I guess this model must take it back out over the ocean or something crazy like that. So for local weather check out Longmont Leader and Broomfield Leader and local news as well. This has been Chief Leader Aljust John Hinsworth. Keep looking up.