 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Com we're today. We're getting you set for college football week number seven by talking to Colin Wilson of the Action Network Getting his thoughts on this week's games and talking some Arkansas football with an Arkansas alum as well My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm joined here as always by Dr Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed You're coming up a crazy week of college football. How are you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. It was a pretty awesome week and Yeah, which might that would have done better, but we'll get into that a little bit later There are things we can't control and things include quarterback injuries, which was unfortunate and we'll talk about that for sure, but we record on Wednesdays typically for college football and it seems like we might need to move that up because Numbers are moving fast Ed and some of those ones were discussed with a con today move address at the rent that run down yesterday and I think it's one of the situations where I mean, we can't change ours good don't so much but like if you're betting it's you Getting in early seems to be potentially more important than it ever has been at this point Yes, I started posting my college football numbers for members on Sundays I will continue to do that because everything is moving like nuts on Monday And it wasn't too long ago that college football totals would come out on Tuesday afternoons Now they are on on Sunday and moving like nuts. I mean, I mean, you're a little bit late if you're betting it on Tuesday Yeah, for sure and it's Like and that makes talking about bets on Wednesday even harder, right because markets more mature Right exactly and like with NFL stuff like all poll numbers Tuesday morning and they're gone by Tuesday afternoon There was a Viking the Vikings open is like I think one and a half point dogs And they were a favor by a point and a half like a couple hours later So, I mean, that's not a move across like significant numbers But like the money line moves quite a bit there So either way you want to get in early more important than ever at this point We're talking about some numbers we like right now with Colin Wilson He of course is a senior writer for the action Network you can find him on Twitter at underscore Colin one We're gonna break down week seven of college football with Colin for the NFL side of things Love Joe Ostrowski on tomorrow to preview week number six So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to search for covering the spread Hit subscribe and leave a rating interview if you like what you hear to get our NFL and college football breakdowns each and every week Before we go on to talk to Colin though. We're gonna go back to last week Talk about the quarterback injury that went against Ed and break down all that went down in week number six Covering the past Last week here on covering the spread we had Edward e-gross on to break down week six You can find Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports and check him out on TV G and NBC sports edge Edward was in some totals for last week. Fortunately, one of them was Oklahoma, Texas He liked the under on sixty three and a half for that game and moved against him closing at sixty six and that game got Bananas we'll talk more about that with Colin in just a bit but finished a hundred and three points Thanks to a crazy comeback there So a loss in that one Edward had Georgia and Auburn under forty seven and a half This one was good for both movement and good results for Edward dropped to forty six at close Georgia's defense really did clamp down They held up or into just ten points there that allowed the under to hit at forty four points for that one So good call by Edward on that total Final pull for Edward was the under at fifty and a half from Michigan versus Nebraska It did shift down a half point at close and look great for the first quarter and a half The first half thirteen total points. There were no points in the first quarter Things got a bit crazy in the second half The over did hit at sixty one total points and had probably an entertaining game for you up in Ann Arbor And a fun one at least in the second half to see how things played out Yeah, it was entertaining. I mean, I think I think Nebraska's offense played really well in the second half They brought out a bunch of misdirection plays that really had Michigan's defense unprepared but at the end of the game another fumble by Adrian Martinez and Yeah, Michigan was able to get the win so and you did research into fumbles on the NFL side and how It was about how quarterback sacks lead to fumbles and like there was a heavier correlation There is that correct if I remember correctly Well, I mean the basic fact in the NFL is that you know about a third of all fumbles lost happened from Quarterback sacks So the idea is that the quarterbacks have the ball so much that they play a huge role in Fumbles just because they have the ball so much and I'd be shocked if that is also not true And if it were not true in college football, Adrian Martinez has the ball a lot He has problems holding on to the ball. It is cost Nebraska and Nebraska also had another There was another study of fumbles with Nebraska that a journalist there did and They've had the worst fumble lock over like a decade and a half and it was really like So fumble recovers are supposed to be pretty random, but they found that like they had recovered a statistically shockingly small fraction of fumbles on defense Over a 15-year period so I Guess the story really isn't new Like last 15 years they've had issues with fumbles Some of it is probably stuff that could be fixed some of it is probably just random. Yeah With Adrian Martinez, it's worth it, you know to you know you'll take that trade off to have him and You just wishing to scrub up the fumbles at some point there But his talent worth it at least either way as far as the sides go Edward like Arizona State minus 12 and a half And this one did move in his favor as well Arizona State closed as a 13 and a half point favorite versus Stanford ASU scored late in the third quarter to take an 18 point lead and then the defense held pretty firm from there So Edward was able to hang on and get the cover there. So Two and two and then Edward finished three and three because you were head-to-head against Penn State versus Iowa He was on Iowa minus one and a half you had bet Penn State when it was plus two and a half and the shape the Shawn Clifford injury kind of the The that early enough. Yeah, that was the Three. Oh, that was available that open and that was where it opened up. Yeah Oh, man, that's that's really rough and add that on to the fact that you know, they could still could have covered despite Clifford getting hurt had he gotten the three came close they were of 1710 when Clifford left and Take one Robinson came in really struggled through a couple picks. He turned 21 pass attempts into 34 yards So even when he did complete passes wasn't doing a whole lot Iowa rallied kind of ish. They won outright. They got the cover as well but like Not a whole lot you can do when you've got situations like that from a betting perspective Yep, that was a bummer Yep, alas But I think that's about all you can do So you had bad luck to you with the Ryan Fitzpatrick engineering week one So, oh if you're just like cursing quarterbacks out here at or something like that, but I don't know suspicious Yeah, the week one thing like I don't know charges dominated that game So it's not yeah, that one doesn't bother me too much the Penn State one was a little bit different though. Yeah for sure All right Well, hopefully we can turn a look around in week number seven We'll talk about here in just one second But first hockey is back the NHL season is back with games going on all this week and Fandles giving you the chance to get in On the action by opting into the NHL Parley insurance offer all you got to do is place a 4 plus like Parley on NHL games between Between now and October 19th It's exactly one leg of your bet loses get a refund and site credit max refund $25 per day kick off the NFL's the NHL season the right way by heading over to Fandles sportsbook in place in NHL Parley must be 21 plus and present Arizona Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia Refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expired in seven days max refund $25 restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.Fandle calm gambling problem called 100 gambler is a fandle calm slash RG In Indiana one hundred nine with it for confidential help Michigan One hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in Tennessee called the red line at one eight hundred eight nine and seven eight nine in West Virginia one hundred gambler net or Arizona call one hundred next step or text next step to five three three four two Covering the present Let's bring Colin Wilson on to you covering the spread now to preview week number seven across college football Colin We appreciate the time. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm staring at a board full of Wonderful games. It couldn't ask for anything more when I've been diagramming We easy in a second UTEP all morning over eight cups of coffee So just another week in college football isn't it good though to have a come down after this past week because like I feel Like we need like a breather to like decompress after what happened this past weekend There was a five-minute corridor where Arkansas and Ole Miss came down to the end and San Pima went for the two-way aversion and oh you and Texas came down to the Very of a Spencer rattler converted to that'll happen within a couple minutes and You're just not gonna get a peek like that. Like it's nice to have a week where I don't think I'm gonna have that kind of emotional spike Yeah, well, but then you had like the spike kind of at the end. I mean, I was heading to bed when the the Bama Texas A&M game and I was like, this is not happening. Is it? So, yeah, there was there was a lot I there was Texas A&M fans that were texting me at the game They said we're are we really in my dream? Are we really doing this and I'm like, you know, where's that calzada came from? I don't know where that came from. So Yeah Where did he come from? Right? I mean We did that we did our podcast on the action network and I took Texas A&M over my Razorbacks and the Razorback I had them, you know covering Texas and I had all these things laid out about it And then when we got to the Texas A&M handicap, it says, hey, you know, we've got these players Texas A&M and Jimbo have been loading up on recruits for years top five recruiting classes And you look at a Shane and Demis and Anea Smith, like they have the players from an explosive standpoint to hang with Alabama But Zac Calzada has had so such bad accuracy issues And the offensive line has not been healthy that you're not gonna be able to challenge Alabama All of that got taken care of in one game. So things I expected to see out of Texas A&M in the beginning of the year They finally came to fruition against Alabama Yeah, it was a fun weekend for sure And I do want to talk to you about Arkansas because you mentioned them. You are an Arkansas alum They get Auburn this week Auburn wasn't quite fun enough for me to put in the rundown for the three games we'll discuss But I still want to get your thoughts, you know, you obviously pay close attention to them You're okay betting against Arkansas at a time So what's your read on them in general but specifically here against Auburn this weekend? Yeah, I couldn't be more happier with the direction of Arkansas football I mean, this is uh A team that used to not be able to get themselves up off the mat under Chad Morrison, Brett Bielema They would take a loss and then everything would snowball But now you have Sam Pittman and he now has a history of when Arkansas has taken losses They come back the next week and they beat people I think last year, Georgia beat him by, you know, 20 something in the next week Everybody thought Mississippi State was going to be national champions because they beat LSU and they beat Mississippi State as double-digit dogs And so when you get a pounding by Georgia, you get shut out Is there a hangover next week? No, there is a boat race with Ole Miss able to score points and for Sam Pittman I know we lost the game But for a head coach to realize that you don't want to get into an overtime with Matt Corral When we drain clock score a touchdown and Matt and Sam Pittman just throws two fingers up in the air And says we're going for two like we're going to end the game right here That lets me know as alumni that we're in good hands We we are being very well coached now you fast forward to Auburn I know we have a you know, when you're a handicapper you got to take strength to schedule In there and it's really tough because we've got Akron and Alabama State in there But we've also got you know Penn State So Auburn's kind of a mixed bag when it comes to stats They've already fired their wide receivers coach and then all and you know, you need these bow nicks Amazing super tech mobile type plays to get these drives home. So they're a really tough handicap But one thing they do well is they stop the rush and Arkansas has a four-headed monster I think it's going to be a big battle and then if we don't get that thing That's just KJ Jefferson trying to throw to Traylon Burks and he's covered by four different people So I probably will end up on Arkansas. I don't have any money on it right now But I expect it to be higher scoring than than what the board has Excellent Well con we're really excited to have you on the show for the first time partially With the writing but also you have a model that you publish over at the the action network Tell us a little bit about this model the inputs and and what you do to get your ratings Yeah, I think it's really interesting that like, you know Sacherin has been around forever and bill connelly's sp plus s and p plus or sp plus That's a legal thing Yeah, it's been around forever, but what's interesting is about 15 years ago I was doing another career. I was a software consultant But I loved to fly into vegas and bet on college football But more importantly, I like to take the odds makers out to dinner or to have a drink and say How do you guys come up with these numbers the next day? I I really want to know because as a guy that's got an engineering degree I want to backwards engineer how we got to pit minus seven versus george attack. How did that happen? And I think when you look at What the odds makers do I wanted to take a little bit of a flavor of what How they come up with their numbers in their process And then I wanted to look at the five factors of college football that bill connelly wrote up in 2014 I want to integrate the two together So from an odds makers standpoint what they do is the closing line is paramount to everything So if a number opens 21, but it closes 28 Then you're going to have to make a pr for the two teams that comes out to a spread of 28 And then, you know, they'll do an adjustment a point or two here If the post game win expectancy is a little off because there was too many turnovers There was a fraud box or something like that And then when you integrate things that bill connelly wrote about years ago almost a decade ago about Explosiveness and success rate and and finishing drives when you add those into teams You can modify the point spread even you're I'm sorry You can modify the power rating even more and that's what I do over at action network So even though our power ratings are not a sagrant or an sp plus I know what the odds makers how they make those numbers and they don't pay attention to success rate and explosiveness whatsoever I know how bill mathematically makes his numbers But injuries and social situations and things happening inside outside the locker room the bookmakers do know and move numbers on That's not a part of sp plus so really it's a combination of both So are you Is it is it like you're you're you're updating you you have a rating and then you're updating based on where the market closes and then A whole bunch of other stats. Is that is that kind of essentially it? Essentially it we get to the closing line number and then we ask ourselves And this is what the odds makers do they say what would I make that game again? So if I only ever closes minus 18 if they were to play a and m seven days later What would you make the spread? Well, obviously it would probably be like 15 and a half 14 and a half. It wouldn't be like Texas ain't it would be favored. That's where you separate fans from short gamblers, right? I mean fans think now they should be favored and then once you get into it You say well, it could have been a flukey game from a success rate standpoint or an explosiveness standpoint And I wrote a story over the summer and I've been dying to do this for years I took data from all back to the 2014 season because You know, if you look at the if you look at color the healer football study hall the the bill colony wrote It was like 88 of the teams that went success rate win the games and 77 explosiveness win the games And so I said well, that's great. But what about against the spread? So I went back and took all the teams back from 2014 and I wanted to know what are the Of all the five factors, what are the ones that determine the best against the spread metric? Turns out it is success rate defensive success rate and defensive finishing drives Defined as when drives pass the 40 yard line, how many points are you putting up on the board? So now success rate and finishing drives. I immediately get into an advanced box score after a game and that's how I adjust my power ratings But how stable is that defensive? uh finishing drives bit I believe it's more stable than the red zone numbers because the red zone there's not as many attempts once you get past the 20 Uh field goals touchdowns being scored I think points per possession past the 40 is a better outlook than me just dumping red zone. So right Because you're expanding the sample size. I completely believe that right I'm just trying to think back because I've always thought this and then I've never checked it Um, just how predictive that is so I would definitely yeah Turns out it turns out 63 like well once I saw 63 it gets the spread when you win finishing drives I was well, okay. Well now I have to bring finishing drives that and it gets a little bit of a bump for me Yeah, no, no, I mean I completely believe that it matters and winning But just I guess my question was like how much does finishing drives before today Going to predict the rest of the season, right? Yeah, exactly. I would think that is less stable than your success rate Yeah, yeah exactly at the same point There are some teams out there in college football that I believe I cited a team our action over podcast last week Last week that they had allowed 14 red zone attempts all 14 be touchdowns I'm taking it over on this team Everybody gets a touchdown. So yeah Um, so your goal in looking back at Comparance success rate to spread and stuff like that was to determine what books were not accounting for Is that the the goal for you in doing so? Yeah, and so and so there are odds makers that I'm I mean one of them I'm very close personal friends with is one of the top in the game right now And he does not pay attention to success rate or finishing drives or any advanced metrics whatsoever He does pay attention to strength of schedule It is a big part of the odds makers process of building it But once they get into hey, I have a mismatch here Where one team is really good in standard downs. That'd be texas like texas is averaging eight yards every time They're first and 10 Versus a team that is just aren't tackling and they're dead last and tackling for pff Be a pff, you know, that that's a big deal. There's gonna be a lot of explosive plays Interesting. Well, I think we should be like specific about what the bookmakers consider Because I think Collin you're saying the bookmakers are not considering success rate when they open up that opening line No, right. They are they are certainly considering success rate because they're adjusting their lines based on the market Yes, and those people was betting into the market 100% are using success rate. I actually impressed in johnson on my podcast Earlier, he's a pro college football better and he was he was really funny. He's like, yeah Last time I was on here. I didn't really want to talk about success rate because I don't want to tell people about that Yep Well, press and I Friends press and I've been friends for a decade So I mean this line of thinking that we've had for a long time has we've just We haven't really wanted to tell the other side of the counter and in our media world We haven't really wanted to tell the rest of the media world, but it's a big deal It's there's a huge delta between those numbers and for the odds makers are No, exactly. And that's why you see that's why, you know, I mean you're I want to talk about this at the beginning of the show, but like the market has changed so much in the sense that You know, totals are out sunday Right. It wasn't too long ago that totals were out like Tuesday afternoon And you're just seeing that market go crazy on mondays, right? And um, a lot of that is You know, I think these sharp betters who are using success rate because they figured out it's the most sticky thing Coming in with their perspective on things and You know press and certainly one of them Yeah, and tempo plays a really big deal with that too And I know that odds makers do use a little bit of tempo But you know explosive plays play a big part of that too. Your tempo can be You know Affected by if you score within five seconds versus if you're coastal carolina and it takes you 10 minutes Because you decided to go 18 plays and then get your seven points and during clock it. It's a really interesting dynamic Yeah, that they consider pace given the total being 82 and a half for all miss tennessee I think we can say there's at least a sprinkle of that in there for sure Now you mentioned taxes I want to talk about them in a second but first let's talk about their opponent last week because oklahoma Tentatively made the switch at least they put kaylor williams in over spencer rattler You talked about this in your week six preview post up on the action network about how this was a possibility It's not definitive yet that it'll be williams going forward Kind of looks like it probably should be but like it's not definitive yet. So with that in mind Does his potential presence impact your view of oklahoma in the futures market? They're minus 150 win the big 12 right now and 20 to 1 win the national championship Uh, I love kaylor with kaylor was when kaylor williams is the quarterback I love them more now full disclosure. I bought oh you 10 to 1 back in january march anywhere I could find it coast to coast I loved oh you because they're defensive improved year over year under alex grinch And spencer rattler's numbers were heisman-esque last year as far as big-time throws versus turnover worthy plays That's all disappeared for him whatsoever. There's some stories coming out. They changed the run blocking scheme That's why the running backs haven't been that well, but they've scrapped that and they've gone back to normal Spencer rattler still is not passing deep and when he does he's getting picked off He's making some very terrible decisions on passes that go past 10 yards and the switch to kaylor williams. I knew was coming I mean I When you watched texas the week before against tcu max duggan did whatever he wanted run the zone read Make a decision whether i'm going to hold on to it or throw it down the field And that's exactly what kaylor williams's game is that is not spencer rattler's game If spencer rattler wants to hold on to the zone read nobody's scared And what happens now is with kaylor williams at quarterback the linebackers have to respect him like they do matt corral And stay in the box and that frees up wide receivers to get more separation to have some more one-on-ones Kaylor williams over spencer rattler is a huge adjustment for me I love oklahoma futures if kaylor williams is the starter now Of course, i'm tracking practice reports every day if the rattler was at practice He did not practice, but he was there and linkin riley stood next to him the whole time or time Like a kindergarten session. I'm not sure what's going on what kaylor williams worked with all the the first stringer So, uh, we'll see who the starter is and if it's going to be this mix and match, but I like oh use chances a lot better So colin, what uh, what about the defensive side of the ball? I think last I checked, uh, my numbers didn't really like oklahoma Is it just randomness is the talent? I mean, I think the story was like they were pretty good last year and they brought a lot of those guys back Yeah, alex grinch the defensive coordinator did amazing things at washington state He got a little buried in the staff at ohio state before he came and took this job and He's known for always having top 25 in defensive havoc. He's known for always being top 25 in success rate And that's not happening this year and you didn't lose anybody from last year's team that I mean they They lost their first two games and they smoked everybody else the rest of the season a lot of that was defense And they're just not getting to the quarterback. They're just not stopping third down conversions I give them a pass against texas. I think what steve sarkeesian is doing down there in austin is amazing from an offensive standpoint Like the what they're able to accomplish from a success rate and now explosiveness of kasey thompson Is a big deal. So I give a pass on those numbers, but you're correct. The ohio defense is nowhere near what it was last year Yeah, so that's the oklahoma side of things. Let's talk texas now They got oklahoma state this week the spread is texas minus five and a half total here Six and a half and this is a fun match up here because we're seeing kasey thompson against a very good oklahoma state defense And thompson like you said been great so far Do you think you can keep it up here? And I think it's a pretty tough test Yeah, sarca nulls is a really big match up of two masterminds of what they do best but You know kasey thompson came in on the last drive against arkansas and that was it for hudson card And I said this, you know, I believe over and over each week The first two games of the season hudson card led zero explosive drives They were successful in moving the chains because of john robinson but No explosive drives and once kasey thompson came in everything changed completely Especially from the passing attack So, you know, I this is a texas offense that I very much believe in I knew they were going to put up a ton of points Against ou. I think that they can do the same here against oklahoma Oklahoma state but the real handicap in this game against oklahoma state is the defense of texas They the players don't match the pete puttackowski system the 425 that he ran up in Washington it is not translated in austin whatsoever and whether that's just a personnel mismatch Or maybe it's coaching or maybe it's scheme. I we have no clue but right now They're allowing everybody to score a maximum amount of points So I can't see a scenario where oklahoma state is not scoring at least four touchdowns in this game No matter if they have a really bad game and an epic game They're still going to score a ton of points here. So, uh, you know, for me the over is the look considering texas's Bottom 15 and and defending the pass defensive havoc finishing drives This is going to be a lot of points in every texas game. They mentioned defensive havoc a couple times What what goes into that? You know, what's the calculation to decide that number? Yeah, so havoc is different on both sides of the ball. So for defensive havoc You're looking at pass breakups interceptions kind of the same thing as a pbu tackles for loss behind the line of scrimmage and Forced fumbles now I I don't really factor in I know there's fumble luck and turnover margin all these other stats But for me if you're able to just punch the ball out Whoever gets it is a coin flip. It's always a coin flip once the ball is on the ground So forced fumbles are a bigger stat for me than anything else So you combine all of those numbers that you accumulate and you divide them by the number of defensive plays that you've Ran or or been involved with and that comes up to a percentage of how many times you created havoc In the form of knocking down passes punching out the ball or tackling by the line of scrimmage Offensive side pretty much the same thing. It's number of offensive plays divided by all those factors Awesome, so let's move up to the big 10. We have michigan state and indiana Michigan state's four and a half point favorite on the road total has gone down to 48 and a half Michigan state is a team that looks to be on the rise and indiana really hasn't lived up to any pre-season expectations and I'm not sure if michael panix is playing. So what are you seeing this game? Well, I think the jury is still out on michigan state I mean the only game that they didn't cover was a Nebraska game that went to overtime and they were gifted a turnover Uh, and you know sparks were able to win by three. Nebraska right now is like a covering machine I they can't win a game But when you see a plus three and a half on the board with Nebraska It's like you have to play because you know the game's gonna end three and overtime But uh, you know, I think the jury's still out on michigan state They I mean they beat miami, but they were given four turnovers, right? And then they're they cover northwestern ruckers youngstown state I mean, it just doesn't put a lot of confidence in me. So when you put in that strength of schedule It's really nice that patent thorn has a 14 to 2 td to int ratio and nobody's been able to stop jail and nailer I think that's where the handicap starts with indiana Uh, you know indiana they're excellent against explosive passing. They're top 20 against Explosive passing tom allen is a defensive coach It shows with his tackle grading in pff. They're 15 And so when you're able to stop explosive passing and you're able to tackle Then these teams like you're not going to let jail and nailer Just go down the field for 80 yards every time that he touches the ball So I think explosive plays are going to be at a minimum and you mentioned michael pennex We don't even know if he's held. I don't think he's been healthy all year He's had a new set of targets that he hasn't gotten familiar with besides tie fry fogel I'm not expecting a whole ton of points out of these guys Uh, I mean I would need a seven just to consider indiana the number keeps steaming I saw three and a half four and a half. I think it was some fives I would need at least a seven before I'd start considering indiana But I think considering indiana's defense and what they lack on offense and under 48 and a half could be the play But even better, uh, I think there's a 24 and a half first half Probably the best bet So you mentioned you mentioned nabrasca against michigan state The play that really stood out to me in that game was when nabrasca punted And everyone went after the wrong punt returner Like I've never I've never seen anything like this Like for nabrasca cover guys go to the wrong guy. The other michigan state guy catches it and runs it back for a touchdown uh I can't explain what's going on with nabrasca because they started covering games after scott frost made an announcement that he was No longer friends with the team. He's now going to be mr Mr. Hardass It's like they lost the illinois game and he's like i'm done being friends with everybody on the team I'm now going to play a positive figure and be a hard ass and i'm gonna coach them hard and now they're covering They're not winning but they're covering. I I don't know what the coaching staff needs if they need to clean house there Trev Alberts might do it No, yeah, it's interesting. So I mean they kind of had that play And first of all, I don't think as a coach you can be friends with your players. So Right, you're the boss. Yeah, you have responsibilities or you're gonna get fired Like it's not friendship. It has to be a relationship that can turn into a friendship Um, but but is I mean, yeah, this this Nebraska team has been fascinating because they did cover against michigan And watching that game here in an arbor very tight um, nabrasca's offense played great In the second half, but it you know that things are bad in lincoln when you know, michigan fans are kind of feeling bad for them It's like, oh, yeah Adrian martini was fumbled again. Yeah, we knew that was gonna happen. All right, they lost the game Yeah, you're in a wild situation out there Yeah, if you get michigan's pity that that's a bad thing. I do think scott frost will stay on until the end of the season I I wonder what his entire campaign and lincoln would have been Without adrian martini's easily the most explosive quarterback I don't know maybe in the conference because he can take off in any down and go run for a touchdown But at the same time It's like it's you can't predict fumbles, but this kid always puts it on the carpet It's picked up and that decides the game at the end every single time every year Yeah, no, it's completely wild. I mean from watching Nebraska this past saturday, I kind of feel like you can't really fire frost But they they played well and you know bad things happen And I understand you get fired because bad things happen But I mean that was my impression, you know, like I I couldn't really you know I saw them against illinois in the opening game and wondered what the heck was going on But seeing me in a full game against what I think is a good michigan team I mean, it's a good football team. They're just they're just not getting the results Yeah, they're not getting the results. The defense is actually legit They're playing very good, especially in the back half the coverage unit defending the pass And scott frost brought his entire staff from ucf. So eric shenander Runs this three four that like blitz is like on half Half of snap. So at least it's getting home. Uh, I think the defense is fine It's just these this consistency on offense. They they have a stable of running backs that is just not getting any yards after contact Yeah, yeah interesting program keeping eye on uh for sure for better or for worse. They're interesting I think that's always fun. Let's talk about our final game here. Kentucky versus Georgia battle of the undefeated in name at least Georgia now a 21 and a half point favorite that is uh down from 23 and a half yesterday Total is 44 and a half and we know Georgia. There's nothing to talk about there too much but let's talk Kentucky because Strength of schedule does matter. What's your read on them so far this year? Well, I mean, Kentucky's had a really great season and mark stuce is going to be one of the hottest names on on the job market When the time comes when the lsu's come open when some of the other positions come open Mark stuce's name is going to be up there. So You know, you have to love what they've done on both sides of the ball They're offensive possessions half of them have had two plus first downs So they've been very successful in moving it and they've doubled the national average and explosive drives I mean that's an explosive drive is is um Is defined by having a drive that averaged more than 10 yards per play and Kentucky's doing that in half Oh, double the national average, which is a little bit crazy 7.4 yards and passing downs. They're they're converting a lot of third downs Um, you know, the defense has been serviceable. They're allowing teams to kind of push them around but In 68 opponent possessions only two of them have been explosive drives So the defense has been very good at limiting the deep ball or anything on the ground They are giving up first downs, but nothing big is coming out of that. You know, all that said, I'm not backing them against Georgia I think as a guy that has my head in the spreadsheet all day I have to pull back at some point and realize that Kentucky winning against florida at home It's been I think since the 80s, uh, you know, I mean that was a monster win for that program I think they're still partying about it and they beat up an lsu team Which I thought lsu would have a chance but they're little with you know, they're one dimensional pass They had no chance. Kentucky is coming off two emotional home games Uh, and now they have to go on the road Into a extremely hostile environment and try to get it done against Georgia And I know over at action network I put this in some of my writings over through the first month Some of these kids have not been in hostile environments Where they haven't had crowds on top of them or the offensive line or the quarterback can't get communication across Because these crowds are so heavy and some of them sophomores. They may have never seen a crowd like this before So do we count the one time Kentucky went on the road against South Carolina? The score of a final score of a 16 to 10 that was a game. They really struggle to get points up on the board So Kentucky on the road coming off two home emotional wins He took my head out of the spreadsheet and I say well, I have to back Georgia in this case But the number really should be 21. I think that's the book saying we know that we're going to take a lot of Georgia money and we're going to protect ourselves here And you know what Kentucky's going to do they run the ball 62 of the time Arkansas runs it just a little bit more and Georgia just completely shut them out. So I'm not sure Kentucky's going to be able to score many points here at the same time the JT Daniels Stetson Bennett sets Bennett is actually running tempo actually You know, so taking all that into account. I think Georgia minus 13 and a half in the first half is the best play Um, I would take it at 22 on Georgia, but not not for a whole, you know, large volume here I like the first half better against Kentucky Excellent. Um, I want to ask you you through in the LSU job is potentially being open. Um, what our coach has prospects? I mean you come into the season. I mean, yeah, your quarterback gets hurt But it was a team that I well, I don't know if I thought but I think the number is in the the pundits all thought There was talent on that defense To really make a surge and that that simply has not happened. So What's your take with coach? Oh There's there's a lot to break down here because you know, this how this how this year began is that Coach Oh made the decision that he wanted to try and replicate 2019 So his offensive coordinator was filled by a guy that worked one year under Joe Brady over for the Caroline Panthers I don't think that's the best representation to try to get 2019 back is to get a guy that served as an assistant to Joe Brady at the Carolina Panthers, but Uh, that guy comes into lsu. He's trying to run the same thing But miles brennan is the quarterback that they wanted why because he can throw deep and he's accurate max johnson Cannot throw deep and is not accurate And now we've had problems with the offensive line where there's just no continuity whatsoever with injuries injuries in the running back So now it's all one-dimensional offense And I think that they're just flying by the seat of their pants when it comes on the offensive side defense Now we have injuries to oligay a lot of key members. Eli ricks is out this weekend Derek stingley is not going to play for the rest of the season. Those are two names. They're going to get drafted in the first round of the nfl draft I don't believe that eddo is going to make it through the season. I think by the time we're all at Thanksgiving dinner He will not have a job. Uh, so and that's not I would like to say that that's just not me like, you know, kind of like taking a guess in the air Uh, there are people at action network that I work with that kind of have a plug into some of the coaching And you know, I believe that scott frost will be there to the end of the year Coach o is number one on the list of coaches that will not be employed by Thanksgiving And it's such a wild situation in the sec that If that happens, you would have had two coaches within the last 15 years that won a national championship And been an out two years later When it's crazy because you have the talent. There's so much talent in these places You get a generational quarterback You figure out everything else you win a national title and then Reality hits over the next two years and it's just it's just it's just wild But it's not even that outlandish either because they've hit the snowball zone where things are bad And then they get worse you mentioned stingly like he's not going to play this year Like once you get to that point, we saw this last year too Same with lsu where guys like terrace Marshall start opting out And it's not like an opt out situation, but you're seeing the snowball occur Which can lead to changes early on kind of as you alluded to Yeah, and and they're tackling great is getting worse and worse and worse like they're falling and and There's a lot of arm tackles You can I think kerb kerb straight called him out three weeks ago and said is there a will to want to play on this lsu He said that three weeks ago and now after watching, you know, what's gone down the last couple weeks I Would take Whoever lsu's opponent is I would take their team total over and I would I I don't think lsu has anything left in the Tank for the rest of the season Yeah, and you talk about trying to reproduce 2019 Yeah, you know, I mean that's a matter of like finding a guy who couldn't win a job at another program and turning him into the first Pick in the nfl draft, right? These these aren't reproducible type situations No, not at all and uh There was uh, I would call the 2019 lsu team one of the more magical Like, you know, like the moon and the sun and the cosmic or like everything came I mean getting joe brady as your offensive, you know as your passing game coordinator And getting joe burrow from ohio state was like the perfect marriage of an extremely accurate passer with a system that had Clyde Edwards-Hilaire that could catch a ball out of the backfield and give you some relief That was a per and remember they couldn't play any defense either. I've said this a ton of times They gave up I think 40 points to vanderbilt and one of their first six games and grant delpit was like their nickel back He he missed like 20 tackles on the first six games and then all of a sudden day veranda was able to figure it out And uh day veranda one of the best defensive minds, you know in in all of fbs football now at baler He was able to get that tackling uh unit turned around. It was just fundamentals and offensively that they just never stopped scoring ever No one could ever figure that out. Uh, and you're not going to replicate that so I don't know why you would try in the first place Making an outlier your your template is usually not going to go Super well in general, so I think that could be a lesson a big takeaway here A lot of other games in the board colony mentioned. It's not the best, you know, slate by any means But hey, we can bet on those two with a bet on the bad games, too So what are the games are you seeing value for this weekend? Well, I I made a couple lists a little short notes out a couple listed for you guys And believe it or not it starts off with Nebraska. I mean it's there we go. All right It it it's gross it all most some of these games are gross But at four it's actually time to consider buying in on minnesota a minnesota team that lost to bowling green Nebraska's just been incapable of closing out these games and I mean even though, you know The gophers took that loss to a mac team They've been excellent in defense and passing downs And Nebraska has issues stopping the rush and the gophers run 70 of the time So I think at four that's really where you want to start looking At minnesota other than that you can go to the mac eastern michigan was a big play for me last week Is an underdog chris creighton just gets it done from a covering the spread perspective in the mac And now they're taking on a miami bohio team that Is really struggling this season and and eam you they're top 25 in defensive russian past expected points So I expect them to win that game Keep your eyes on louisiana tech going to utep austin kindle their quarterback is completely healthy They're coming off of a buy and utep has extreme issues defending explosive passing And then the last one i have i haven't played it yet I'm waiting for word on if jay kainer is going to play for fresno state going to y oming That loss they've been off a bio week. They lost to hawaii at the island You know jay kainer. I'm glad they got the win over ucla, but he took so many shots We don't know exactly how healthy is he isn't practicing this week. He's in a boot If he's not at quarterback for fresno state, then wyoming plus three and a half is a gift Yeah, that's where it's at right now at vandal is wyoming plus three and a half for that one So keep tabs there and potentially far away if we get more word later on that is collin wilson Makes you check out all of his work over at the action network find him on twitter at underscore collin one Collin we appreciate the time good luck to you across college football week seven. Good luck To arkansas as well. We'll hopefully talk to you again soon Thank you guys very much with pic suey covering the future Big thank you once again into collin wilson for swinging by and breaking down college football week number seven and ed You had a chance to patch yourself on the back and did not uh, we're talking about cocho with lsu because last year pretty early on in the year I don't remember if it was on this show or on the football analytics show You talked about ed orgeron being Like potentially malzahn at some point you called that like early last year And now it's kind of playing out and you didn't patch some of the back So i'm here to do that for you and let people know that hey you were onto this pretty early Well, look the man still has jobs, so let's let's not get ahead of ourselves, but it's like the fact it's possible I don't think people would have would have ever expected heading into like partway through 2020 Right Look, I just don't trust coach. Oh, uh, I somehow bet lsu against uh, uh ucla earlier this year I don't really know what I was thinking kind of goes against You know, maybe I still had the memory of 2019 when yeah, I think they covered a lot They think they covered quite a bit. I know they covered against clumpson in the title game And Yeah, you know, it's just it's it's it's wild. It's wild down there In the sec where you can just get talent and go all the way And you're only ever one season away from uh, the top of the not everywhere Vanderbilt's not one year away from the top of the hill in college football but a lot of those programs that do recruit well lsu certainly one of them auburn certainly one of them and um Yeah, I don't know really what to say. I guess I you know like gene schizek I didn't didn't think was the greatest coach you could kind of tell that from his previous tenure at Iowa State and then uh, coach oh Is a personality for sure and can certainly recruit but You know in terms of managing the game it's been tough and uh The wheel seems to have come off And you see these guys Leaving now and again like if I were in Derek Stingley junior's position I know that he's not like fully healthy, but like you know, I might think about my future too So they're making business decisions. I would do the same thing So I think that it makes sense and it's probably not going to get better From that perspective anytime soon. Let's move now into covering the future. Ed. What are you talking about for this week across college football? Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely interested in this big 10 matchup with ruckers at northwestern So these are two teams that are kind of headed in opposite directions So for ruckers, greg schianna started his second tenure at the school last year in 2020 Kind of went under the radar, but but he was three and six Last season in only big 10 games and that might not seem impressive Except ruckers had run a total of three big 10 games in the previous four years before it showed up And last year they made some pretty big strides on defense And they've really doubled down on that in 2021 Currently they were in 21st when I look at my adjusted success rate This was even higher before the last two games against uh, oh house state and michigan state So they're doing pretty well on that side of the ball The offense has been respectable. They're 56 when I look at my adjusted success rate And quarterback no overdraw really gave a good michigan defense some fits in that game in an arbor with some of the read option plays So there's certainly an offense that can move the ball So on the other side of the ball, um, you know, northwestern Hasn't really been the best season But let's go back to last season when uh, you know, they had a 72 record And had patin ramsey the transfer from indiana quarterback made the big 10 championship game and was they were competitive against ohio state until uh, ohio state kept giving trace arm in the ball And over the off season, uh, they lost a long time, uh defense court of mike hankowitz and you lose a talent like reg newson to the first round of day and felt drafts and, um It's been bad on defense, you know, they're 116th when I look at adjusted success rate And this is a program that's really been good on that side of the ball, uh through most of the At least the last four or five years that that I can remember The offense also isn't as good turns out patin ramsey was pretty good and his replacements, uh Are not as good So the 27th when I look at adjusted success rate the primary model I use likes workers by four Still has a memory of You know this pre season when we expected, you know, probably like uh north west and by maybe a touchdown in this game And then based on data from the current season, uh workers expect to win by about 15 So I do believe there is value of workers minus two. Um, there were better numbers on monday, but uh, I still think there's value in this number Yeah, you texted me on monday asking if there was any reason why north western should be favored when it was north western I believe minus one and My mouth dropped a bit How how are they favored? I know this is like a biased burn north western fan here, but like What have they done this year to give you any hope they could possibly cover this number? Like the second half against duke, they played fine, but that's duke. They were okay against ohio, but that's ohio The nebraska game they got torched with hillinsky at cornerback Like that wasn't hunter johnson anymore. That was hillinsky and like What reason do you have to think that this team like I think like Like I don't know what the team total is from north western But like it they can't be expected to score, you know as many as like 22 whatever any points based on this this Spread in the total like I just don't know Why we would expect them to score points in this game? Right. Yeah, we'll see there there also could be That rockers is a little bit overrated but But they've been pretty good so far this season and I could see the defense improving just because there was so much Turnover and they did have the the changes in the personnel You know with the with the tense coordinator, but like I don't think they'll regress enough to erase this offense and that's gonna be That's gonna be tough. They're a very easy team for me to not watch Despite my allegiances. I'm okay with uh Not putting those games on tv for the rest of the year So ed is on ruckers minus two over in evanston My cover in the future is focused in the nfl for one of two bets for this week I want the cowboys minus four against new england and the cowboys Are a team that's 5-0 against the spread the only team that is still undefeated against the spread this year Which I assumed meant that they would get a lot of respect from the book coming into this game And the cowboys are very public team books often overreact to teams overperforming the spread like this So I expected this to be a situation where the cowboys be big favorites are getting a lot of buzz right now I thought that that Maybe I'd be backing new england in this game But I don't think that's the case based on where the number is at right now The cowboys four point favorites in foxboro, and I'm going to lay the four here and go with Dallas most. That's because I just think the cowboys are legit They are up to fifth in my power rankings behind the chiefs bucks rams and bills the patriots Nowhere near the top five and part of that is because my prior was low on them Coming into this year because rookie quarterback not the best skilled position guys Defense should be better with the opt asked me back in and Matthew judon being there but I wasn't expecting them to be an amazing defense and My prior was low, but the 2021 data is also pretty bad the patriots rank 30th and schedule adjusted offense based on number fires metrics They are 19th on defense Meanwhile, the cowboys are third and bold now the defensive one very fluky because It is heavily aided by turnovers I'm guessing the success rate numbers would not put them anywhere near the top five but I think that they're better than average on defense and I'm on board with the offense being a top five offense right now So if I look at my numbers here, they've got the cowboy sphere by 7.1 points And even though I have I'm a bit light on home field Even if I were to adjust that to be a full three, I would still see a lot of value in this game So I'm fine going ahead right now and laying four With dallas on the road against in england for this week But I do want to hear your thoughts on this because again, like I said my priors on the wing were pretty low Priors and dallas are pretty high which is which is played out well, but that also could lead to potentially things being overvalued after Things have looked good so far. So what are your thoughts here on cowboys versus patriots? Yeah, I mean the cowboys I mean, I think they're top their their offense is top five And I think that's the potential that we thought they had coming into This season their defense is exactly average when I look at Passing success rate adjusted for schedule. I think that is a very good result for that defense Given given what happened last year, uh digs has been a great cornerback So, yeah, I mean all all the prospects Yeah, no, I think that that is right for dallas. I'm not really sure what to think of new england It's always difficult with a rookie quarterback and you know, my numbers are Telling me to bet a lot on rookie quarterbacks. I'm not always taking that advice. So Yeah, new england's a team. I still need to dig into a little more Okay, so we'll talk more nfl tomorrow But I am for now on the cowboys minus four against new england That is all that we have here for today on the college football edition of covering the spread as but as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow to break down nfl week six of joe strausky getting his thoughts on the best games across week number six Big thank you once again to collin wilson of the action network find him on twitter at underscore collin one And check out his work over the action network and see his thoughts on week seven over there Ed what is going on for you this week over at the powering? I had uh, george hurray from pff on the football analytics show great conversation We talked a lot about explaining analytics to the public on sunday night football Talked a lot about a story. He he started a ap calculus course in compton Got a bunch of kids to pass that test. That's cool, which I thought was pretty awesome Yeah, and talk some football Talk some betting. So it was great conversation. Check that out the football analytics show My free email newsletter is on sports betting Looking to be valuable concise and entertaining for you every week. So check that out at the power rank dot com and find ed on twitter at the power rank and get the conversation with george by searching for the football analytics show I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down nfow week six This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys? This is jordan spieth if you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel