 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Welcome back, welcome folks. Larry can't make it today and we are going to be growling and prowling. Dow Industries right now are trading down 1-80, you get the Nasdaq up 17, S&Ps are down 3.5. We have the gold contract up $16. Gold is, this whole thing is pretty wild man. You get a lot of divergences out here folks. Notes and bonds, the 10-year note, bottom line we move in top side meaning higher price, lower yield. You get the 10-year right now trading up 25 ticks at 1-18-19. We have the 30-year up 1-point plus 24 ticks at 1-40-08 and King dollars. All about King dollar man in a monster way too. King dollar right now is down 258-106-832. The Euro is at 101. The yen is trading out here at the 137.6 mock and the British pound is at 119-1 US dollar. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Bottom line, let's go take a look at this S&P. So first let's go take a look at the futures because what you have here, we're getting very close to I think the end of this bounce here. So it's going to get really intriguing. So what you have here is this, you can see you're down 4 bucks right now but in the future market folks, the bottom line, the spike that was down there this morning, that is a high volume spike. So that tells me we're going to be back to that level which is the 39-30 and right now you're 28 bucks ahead of that. You can see that it's an explosive move down there man. You get 84,000 contracts and the last 10-minute buy we just did 37,000 and right now we're eight minutes into this bar and you get about 40,000. Yeah, we're 40-40,000 but bottom line is that, you know, you need, yeah, that's how this baby's shaking. That big bar down there is a problem. We're going to take a look at the NDX100. NDX100 right now is trading up 26 bucks inside the future market. We're going to do the same type of exercise here and what you're going to see, we bring this back and the divergence is there inside. You know, you have a spike but not like the S&Ps. The spike at that low today was 12,273. You know, that's enough to get hit though. That's the bottom line. That thing wants to get hit again because you can see when we came into that, we came in, yeah, the market was open, that was 140 from yesterday and that was 14,000 contracts and we came into 21,000. Yeah, and the bottom line, you're going up and you get one minute left and on this bar right here, you only have 10,000 contracts. So the bottom line is you just don't have the buyers out here inside of this market. Now let's go to Kingdala because what we have with Kingdala is that it looks to me that what you're going to get here is that, you know, the benchmark is the day of the 5th of July. That's when Kingdala went up 1,700 ticks. Now the high of that, folks, is 106,763. You stay over that 106,763 and guess what? What ends up happening again is it can go run for that high. It runs for the high, this market is going to take connections. Now let's go take a look at the S&Ps. So if we take a look at the SPI, what you're going to see here, we had divergence yesterday, meaning that the NDX has the volume. The SPI didn't, okay? The bottom line is that what you have out here today is that the SPI hit 395,76. Well, the thing that's wild is that the gap, the top of one of the gaps, we came down one, two, we gapped down three times. That top of that gap is 395,77. The thing that's intriguing here is that I actually forgot that we had three gaps down. So a way that the three-gap play works, folks, is this. Most times what happens is that you get gap down and then the market loves to go back to fill the gap. Now the fill of the gap would be 401,44. And then guess what? Whatever way the gap has started, that is where the trend is and that's where you go right back to. So this is going to be intriguing watching how this whole thing shakes out. And of course the thing to watch, let's go over to the SMHs because the SMHs move the NDX100, the NDX100 moves the S&P. So when we take a look at the SMHs, bottom line did good volume yesterday. Now the SMHs, let's see, that gap is 232,27. And we hit 230,02 today. So it's going to be really intriguing watching this shake out. And what the signal would be is it would be this. Yesterday had good volume in the SMHs, 5 million shares. You're 2.2 today. So we should have the volume in. And the real question is, is it going to hold price and is it going to get into that gap? Some of the higher volume equities in this market out here today, we should get some decent volume out here. You got carnival, carnival is getting smoked. They're doing a secondary or a third. It's like who would buy a billion dollars? But you're going to see these broker dealers go out and basically sell equity in carnival. And the thing that's intriguing here about this is that when you're selling equity folks, the bottom line is that you're not getting interest rates. You're not getting anything, man. It's not like selling a bond issue. We'll see how this baby shakes out. But they're in tough shape. You have mob bells down a buck 80. What that's all about is that mob bells having a hard time evidently collecting telephone bills. And if that's the case, man, that means that this downdraft is hitting a lot quicker than I realized, because telephone bills aren't that expensive, right? But the reality is maybe they're more expensive because everyone has cell phones now. I'm not true. But when you're talking about 30 or 40 bucks, if you have a hard time collecting 30 or 40 dollars, this economy at this point is softer than I realize. You get, well, no agents cruises down with carnival. You get CSX is up 135. If we go inside of the Dow industrials, we take a look at the Dow industrials, the strength versus the weakness out here. You get point-wise, we have Goldman's putting 812 positive points, Visa 8, Walmart 4, taken away from it. UnitedHealth 41, Traveler's 30, IBM 23. Let's just go look at IBM. They came out with their numbers. They just can't get out of their own way, man. You know, it's pretty amazing, too. As I did, plenty of buying on IBM. IBM was holding up when the market wasn't holding up, OK? And then they come out with their numbers, and guess what, man, nothing has changed, OK? IBM bottom line has been toasted for about 10 years. It's going to go back to the lower end of its consolidation and what's game on IBM now is 100.07. And, you know, we'll see how this shakes out, man. I mean, it couldn't basically break its consolidation that was in, and that's pretty intense. When you think, in fact, let's just, let me just go look at these, because you see, IBM has been shrinking for so long, it's incredible. So, IBM did 15.5 billion. And so, picture this, a year ago, they did 18.7 billion, folks, OK? And they brought it $2.31 to the bottom line. You know, last year, they brought $2.31, 33 cents. It's only going to be a matter of time. You can see these numbers. Every number IBM has is contracting. They're losing 8.5% in the U.S. This is on a three-year basis. In Europe, 11.8% and in Asia, 12.1%. Stay right there, folks, come right back. Blooming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thanning gold. VISTA Gold's flagship asset is the Mount Todd Gold Project in the northern territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. 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Actually, no. We're going to hear this, man. DHI. We're going to go to the home builders. I was watching this yesterday, man. This was so intriguing because this is what happened, folks, in 2007. I remember this so well because I was shot the home builders and they did a counter-trend bounce that was a mind-blower before they blew up. And guess what? DH Horton came out with numbers last night. The numbers were shot. But let me show you something. This was happening yesterday. See this volume on DH Horton? You are pushing in. 6.1 million. You're pushing into the swing point. The swing point here is 4.4. Bottom line, they come up with the numbers and let's go through these numbers because the numbers, you know, basically they got lower deals, okay? Meaning lower numbers. That being said, there it is right here. Okay. So, the DH Horton reported weaker than expected quarterly orders reduced the expectations deliveries and the full fiscal year of U.S. housing slowdown begins to hit builders. For the first three months, purchase contracts fell 7% from a year earlier and also expected 19,300 and they got 16,693. The company expected to deliver 83 to 85,000 down from 88 to 90. Okay. That being said, the bottom line is that you get ABC structures all over the place inside the home builders. Okay. So, this one here, DH Horton has set up what? 75 and a half and it's basically a 10 point A to B, which is going to get you 81. We're at 75. Okay. Now watch this. We go over to Lana. Lana is going to be the same type of setup. Bottom line, Lana has taken its B point out. The B point on Lana is going to be 3. It's $80 and 29 cents. 3 million shares. You're at 1.1. It's going to have the volume. My point is, is this, let me bring this back because when you see this, what happened in 2007 is that you came down and then there was a pause and the home builders went back up and then they imploded. I was looking at this about three or four months ago, wondering like, okay man, because that's, you know, of course I'm in that business so I was watching them really closely and it's going to be really intriguing if the exact same thing happens, meaning that you get the bounce going. It's a great bounce and then all of a sudden it's like, okay, it's not what, you know, was expected. Okay. So it's pretty wild just in general the type of bounce that they're actually getting out there. Inside the crypto business what you have with Coinbase bottom line is that you just had one of the managers and I remember that this was done. I think they fired the manager a while ago. Let's see, the FBI just arrested Coinbase Global Product Manager for allegedly leaking inside information to help his brother and a friend buy tokens just before they're listed on the crypto exchange. There was a huge amount of insider trading and there still is in the crypto market, right? One of the big VCs came out this morning and he was talking about the aspect of of course, you know, we have now is that you got an implosion inside the token business and he was talking about the aspect that the venture capital folks in general, right? Either we're incompetent we're committed to fraud a flat out we're incompetent and committed to fraud that what we're going to have, he was relating this to the 2000 implosion inside the NASDAQ, okay? Sorry about that folks. He was he was relating that to the 2000 implosion in the NASDAQ that would end up happening is that there was litigation forever and then he was explaining that the professionals were basically pushing all the tokens onto the retail in a huge way and you know, there's no doubt and of course the the SEC doesn't stop and the Justice Department doesn't stop they don't get people sometimes 4, 5, 10 years later but the bottom line is that we're going to see a lot of it because the bottom line is that they are worth nothing that's the bottom line and that's going to be 90% of the tokens that are out there it's pretty amazing that, you know, you start a business you say, okay, I'm going to give you tokens and they're claiming that it's not a security well, I suspect that we're going to see that change and that change is going to be pretty dramatic. Let's go into the oil market and see what's going on with oil because oil was also moving pretty dramatically out here we got up to this price point yeah, this is down hard man you can see this we were talking about this yesterday it was on the air in the afternoon bottom line is that you have you're coming into the vicious downdraft that's when the oil went from 105 down to 94 we got up to 100 0.99 and now bottom line is you get volume here man so this thing is going to try to get back to the lower end of consolidation and we'll see whether you know, bottom line if it can get to a lower price if we go take a look at the not the XAU, ExxonMobil take a look at a few of these equities out here yeah this is a consolidation Exxon is down off the ties of 105, bottom line you're at 86 and it just didn't have the juice you can see when we're taking a look at this yesterday you went up to 89 with 16 million shares well, you're going into 84 million, 64 million on the way down so correlation 64 million and you go up with 16 there's not a lot of times folks that you see the differential being that dramatic meaning that the contraction of volume in that particular case I mean oh my god it's a couple hundred percent you don't get to see that a lot most of the time if you get a contraction of volume of 30% it's a lot it gets really tricky understanding which way the market wants to go that's not a big deal I like to see at least 10% either on the way up or on the way down that's where it shakes out now let's go look at this gold market because this was so intriguing this morning the thing that was intriguing about the gold market this morning is this the dollar really bottom line did not take off topside in fact it went down and when the dollar went down gold got smoked we went to 1696 and then guess what it just reversed and went topside and we'll see if in fact it can get you know any traction gold hasn't been able to get any traction whatsoever and we're talking about when I say whatever we're talking about going right back to 1834 you know I mean it's heavier than that we were basically six months ago you were at 2091 you're down but you had sideways movement this leg here though man this leg here has been relentless on the way down it just keeps going on the way down so we'll see where this baby shakes out if in fact you're going to get any buyers in you down down industrials right now trading down 214 you get the Nasdaq up 7 S&P's are down 750 we'll see if it's going to go after that high volume spike low if you're a bull you want it to happen right now so get it over with and as the rest of the day to basically get topside it's going to be a sideways day in general stay right there folks we'll come right back if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers 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the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks down down investors right now down 170 you get the nasdaq up 35 and you get the s&p's up 2 let's go to john and philly john what's going on brother hey jeff mott thanks for taking the call i love that commentary you had for us on the home builders in that home market that's that's going to be an interesting thing to try to navigate here the next couple of months it is man it definitely is there's no doubt you know and one of the main reasons folks is this is that because the rent structures and tommy was talking about this this morning are so large that you know that housing market will hold up better than i suspect that most of us actually probably think because you know there's plenty of cities that the rent structure is twice as big as owning a house those are the typical san francisco austin you know cities that have been out there for quite some time but the bottom line is that you know if the rent structure holds up then the housing market is still going to stay pretty tight so we'll see where it takes up i also appreciate that friday afternoon three to four p.m. discussion you do with your colleague just on on the your local Florida markets down there just as you go forward i'd be very interested to hear the two of you comments just on an ongoing basis as to the flows that you see of the institutional buyers that are coming or going buying single family houses down there yeah and they're backed off i actually sold them i sold them i sold them so many sick i sold over like a hundred and thirty hundred and forty lots it was yeah i did in addition to that i'd segue to ask you the question on the long bond futures contract zb u2 tom we we have a nice rally today and we reverse from you know one thirty eight we've gone back up to one forty and a half in the past in six of the past ten days that long bond contract popped up and stalls you know one forty to one forty and a half so uh... you know or uh... parlance uh... we are either topping out here at one forty and a half or we're building cars to jump this little creek at that same level uh... and of course time will give us the answer but i thought i'd ask if you can take a look at that please and uh... share with us if you see anything that leads you to conclude it's likely a breakout higher or top out and roll lower uh... you know in the next ten days so why should they have this kind of interesting okay so you get the spike high at that one forty two oh six you've been going sideways and see the day like well about a week ago you actually pushing with volume on that swing point at four hundred fifty thousand contracts which a lot of contract volume folks on the thirty now we're already at two thirty four so this is already a lot of contracts again john so that's telling me that's going to try to test it man you know and you know if it if if the long bond gets over there you know this one forty two of the this game to one forty eight so it's like okay what that what's that going to be all about and what that means folks is that interesting to be going down versus going up so and you know and just just to elaborate on that thought if in fact we plow over one forty and a half on route to test one forty two and move higher from there all that's telling you is you've got big institutional investors be public or private sector who are looking through you know the next three to six months and saying hey things are looking weaker and weaker looking a bit further out in time and the long bond would thereby be discounting you know a cessation of the fed you know sometime in the foreseeable future yeah there's no doubt and so why let's get the calendar up okay so if we take a look at the fed calendar right now 27th of July is the next number and then September 21st so yeah no I agree with you john you know that is like okay you know are they going to have to basically back down you know because of the fact that you can see you know when these numbers are coming out things are slowing down you know and the real question is going to be is that the have they already crushed you know a certain part of inflation I think what we're going to see is that they'll probably still go at the 50 in July you know and after that we'll see where the shakes out man you know what I mean but there's no doubt that right now just as you said there's big players that are buying that long bond and they expect that you know the bottom line is that you know when you're buying a long bond folks okay the bottom line is that you are basically expecting that you know rates are going to go down not go up you know it's just it's the inverse all the time so yeah I know it's out here man okay man have a great one have a safe one our phone number is 877 9276648 let's go take a look at that S&P you just got a little pop on the S&P out here and a half bucks inside of the S&P and we're going to let's pull that back there we go okay so you're going after the highs now so now the question is let me see what we got here you get five minutes into this bar and we're at 30,000 corner tracks last bar up there had 60 so we're going to do 60 you know the bottom line we'll see whether it can break topside man you need the break of this we hit pre-market yeah eight o'clock 840 we hit the 3579 and we're basically right next to it just six points away from it so you'll see whether you can take it out you still might yeah it you still have this big bar that's open downtown so when you see something like this let me see yeah you got plenty of time to have the volume that's the real bottom line now what's really cool about this is this now let me go to the NQ's because see when you get volume and in this particular case it should be able to do it right and if it doesn't that tells you a lot also folks okay that's you know when you when you're looking at markets okay so like the NQ's bottom line we are at 535 that's already taken out the highs of yesterday the spike high up here today and you know so the bottom line is that we'll see whether that can get it done the volume's not there there's no doubt about that but we're still you still get four minutes left and four minutes left is a long time left inside of the futures market in general we got take a look at Amazon we have an Amazon Amazon out here bottom line that they're buying one what are they buying one yeah one medical for 3.9 billion and you can see Amazon wants to basically you know be in that telemedicine business there's no doubt about it you know that the parent is called one life health operates 182 medical offices in 25 markets US customers pay a subscription fee for access to its physicians and round the clock digital health service I can see that man you know it's going to be wild if you get a health business that's on a subscription based business man you know Amazon love anyone loves subscription based businesses that's the real bottom line inside of the health business that turns into a whole particular different thing particularly when we're talking about 24 hours a day that's what the Amazon is talking about 24 hours a day we got take a look at Microsoft so Microsoft you know we get back next week Tuesday Wednesday Microsoft's going to be coming out with numbers Microsoft today's trading 261 30 having a hot time getting traction yesterday and the day prior we know we had a great day in the marketplace but Microsoft basically is going into the down draft that was created about a week and a half ago we just can't get the volume going 35 million was on the way down and we went up with 22 million yesterday that's not a equity that wants to go to higher price that's how it's set up so down down industrials right now trading down 92 Nasdaq is up 54 S&Ps are up 10 stay right there folks come right back TFNN has been your trusted source of analysis for bonds metals stocks commodities and options for years and we are happy to announce that we're bringing that same caliber of analysis for the forex market Teddy Keckstat has 30 plus years of experience in forex trading commodity risk management forex hedging volatility and so much more Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every Monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs including the DXY Euro dollar, pound dollar, Aussie dollar dollar yen, dollars Swiss franc and so much more Teddy will recommend specific trades when the market presents them and provide updates throughout the 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services LLC This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back folks to Dow. The prospectus right now up 104. The NASDAQ is up 43. S&Ps are up 7. Check this out man. This is pretty amazing. I'm quite familiar with this whole area too of course because I'm from Boston. And Madera folks is in Cambridge. They had a warehouse in Norwood but they're in Cambridge. So check this out. In late 2021 Kathy Angelina, sales director at the St. Regis in Boston, that's an under construction luxury condominium was elated to have back-to-back showings after a long sales drought. Things started well when a Pfizer employee check this out man, this is amazing when a Pfizer employee agreed on the spot to purchase the 16th floor condo with views of Boston for 4.85 million. Two hours later a Moderna executive phoned in on the same unit when she remarked on the consequence she had said he just looked at me completely serious and said I want the same home but I need to be one floor higher than Pfizer. He reserved the 17th floor for 4.95 million that same day. You know the bottom line is that it's showing the amount of acceleration. So listen to the amount of acceleration I'll just bring up Moderna, it's easier but you're going to see this is actually when I'm reading these numbers these numbers are like just over the top and the article goes on to say folks that what happened is Moderna has basically hired 200% more employees than they had and these are big jobs so look at the numbers here just look at the numbers Moderna took in 300 let's start in 2019 2019 it took in 60 million 2020 800 million well 2021 18.5 billion and this year 22 billion the bottom line is that you're going to see a huge drop-off back down to 10 billion but you can see the type of companies and what happens when companies actually move into areas and they're successful it accelerates the higher end dramatically it accelerates the rents it accelerates the buying and when the whole biotech business started my first office was in Mifflin Place in Cambridge and the second one was in Mifflin Place and Kendall Square they had built this new building in Kendall Square and this is when Amgen had just started and you know it gets crazy because when I was at Mifflin Place so check this out this is if you remember Lotus 123 that guy Mitch I didn't know him personally but I knew him because we were always having coffee at the say the Starbucks was up the street there were only three employees at Lotus 123 they were two doors down from us right and then of course Microsoft I think Microsoft took him and blew them out of the water I forget what happened then Amgen no Biogen it's Biogen I think Biogen basically set up headquarters right outside Kendall Square and that just put Kendall Square on fire and from that point on you know now I'm going back it's 1980 it's a long time 43 years but you can see over the course of those years that Kendall Square in general has turned into a powerhouse in the bio business I mean just in a monster way there's no two ways about it let's go take a look at we've got a couple of tigers that want to GL that want to look at wheat so let's see what we got here so wheat has been getting smoked and where are you wheat come on baby where are you okay here we go so wheat now is trading 823 a bushel this has been a 6 months ago pictures 6 months ago wheat was 775 a bushel a nonstop run up to 1285 a bushel now a nonstop run back down to where it started from and now the real question is let me put the volume on this okay so well the way I look at wheat right now is that the you take the lost leg down even if it's a .382 retracement it's a dead cat bounce you'll probably get 895 out of it and right now you're at 823 and the way wheat trades is that let's see every quarter tick so 0.50 that's how that's shaken up man Mitch Caper that's right that's thanks Duffy that was the guy that was the guy it's pretty amazing how small Boston is and yet the amount of businesses and high tech businesses that are there there's no doubt about it it's no doubt a huge number let's take a look at AF let's go into the XAU and the HUI so both of these also have been on a one way move and the one way move has been down we take a look at the XAU first and they hit the low yesterday we come down with 31 million well that's good ok so check this out man the first low that was a well the last low that was established was $100 and $0.56 we had volume there $44 million you can see yesterday when you come down you come down with 31 so that's a good situation man well it's not a great situation but it's a test with light of volume now the real question is going to be how do we get the production onto the upside and we'll see if in fact we can we go to the HUI I suspect the Gold Bugs index is going to be the same type of setup just laying it lows which is always dangerous man that's the bottom line so we had 30 million shares that's good versus 19 you know it's having a hard time holding price the volume hasn't been big so you have a contraction of volume but bottom line is you need buyers I've seen this before this market it takes a huge amount of patience man in a monster way what it really takes is understanding in your own head because it's your money that's on the line that is inflation staying is the interest rate structure going to go higher and basically crush inflation or is inflation going to be running at 5, 6, 7 percent you know when Tommy was bringing up the aspect this morning about the social security checks if social security checks go up 10 percent man people are going to start worrying again about you know the good old US government paying all these bills now my take is they're going to pay it but you can imagine like in one year if social security is up by 10 percent even 9 point 9 to 11 percent I mean you are talking monster monster numbers stay right there folks come right back we have that out down 130 that's except 37 S&P's up 4 we'll come right back Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIVC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down 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started was it Netflix net something bottom line Microsoft took him out but you know he's done great since then they just planted a flag and announced that this morning also in Miami now that's the first big venture firm that I've seen come out of Silicon Valley doing it it's going to be really intriguing if you start seeing the Silicon Valley folks planting flags what you had yesterday you had a huge law firm yesterday plant the flag also they took three floors in Bricknell at the tower in Bricknell there's a big dynamic change that's happening man and if in fact that dynamic change happens right to the Silicon Valley also it's a game change I mean Miami's always been vibrant what Miami has always had it's always had the South America money coming up bottom line huge amounts of when you go to Miami so check this out when you go to Miami man still to this day and I'm not talking about drug money either I don't think I am anyway I'm not you wouldn't believe the amount of cash that they do deals with okay I was over there me and best fit me and best fit were over there in fact we'll talk about this tomorrow we were over there right before the pandemic when it first started and I was looking to buy a boat right and everyone right was like okay you're going to give me cash and I'm looking at them saying this is a trip yeah I'm going to give you 300,000 in cash right it's like it was just normal for them it was like it was just so wild and so I suspect Miami's going to continue to you know basically not only get higher use Miami is already vibrant that is going to bring things up in a dramatic way there's no doubt about stay right there folks we got think a swim coming up next they're going to be growling and prowling with you down industrials right now down 103 and as that is up 49 S&P's up seven and a half we'll see in a few hours folks