 Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsat. Folks, you can check out Teddy's newsletter. The Tiger Forex report, he puts a new issue out every week on Mondays. He's got updates throughout the week when warranted. You can come on over to the front page at TFNN. You hit the newsletter tab, you hit subscribe. It's $97 for the month, folks. You get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. When you sign up, you also gain access to a couple of archive webinars. Teddy just did one in April, talking about the forecast for the webinar but things may be changing. We got a new Fed regime with pausing slash skipping. Teddy Kegsat, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So let's talk a little bit of Fed, man. We know you've been talking about hikes and I was surprised, especially by kind of just the general verbiage. We got the chairman's remarks already out this morning. He's talking in 17 minutes in front of Congress as well but kind of surprised with even the language that he used. They're trying to sound hawkish. I'm not sure I believe it. What do you think of the Fed action, man, as they pause? I'm very surprised, absolutely surprised that they did. I thought that they would be going for rate hikes for at least another few sessions before they put a pause on. So especially because the economic data I don't think is reflecting what they really want as far as their goals yet. I don't think they remotely achieve what they're trying to, at least what they said they were trying to do. So yeah, I'm definitely very surprised that they have stopped their rate hikes. I think we still have more to come. This whole pausing and now even potential easing talk that's going on I think is a little bit of a, getting ahead of ourselves if you will. So we'll see what happens with the pause. Let's see how the economic data comes out over the next couple of months. I really don't think that over the next couple of months these numbers are gonna trend enough in the right direction to warrant them staying on a pausing basis and not go back to a hawkish outlook. Yeah, and it would seem like, I mean, we all know they got a long way to go. That's for sure, man. And I think they're getting a little hopeful, my opinion in terms of where we go and maybe they give it a few months. I don't know how they come back. What do you think about the next meeting? And I know we're just not throwing darts here but nobody really knows what's gonna happen. But it's interesting that if they're willing to pause right now, right? Is anything gonna change by July 28th in terms of that much data that really is gonna change things? I find it, you know, the next few months, yeah, you can see some action, I'm sure, as the numbers plow in. But even when I'm just looking at July, I'm like, well, if they're there right now, man, what's gonna happen in July that could be so dramatic? You know, you got a few months of data persist. I think it might be undeniable. But if they're willing to go right now, I just don't see how things change with July. What do you think about, you know, one month, three month type scenario going forward? Sure, well, I think one month, the only way you're gonna probably see them go back to a hawkish stance right away in the next meeting would be, let's say unemployment for July comes out, you know, in a couple of weeks, it really comes out good. Meaning that unemployment goes down to an extreme degree, you know, maybe where it goes back to the levels where it was like two, three months. I don't know exactly what the amount of a drop would have to be, but something like that would go against their narrative of what they're trying to do. So that would be a big one. And then I think you're gonna have also your other inflationary numbers too. Like you got to look at what's going on in the EU and the UK, you know, they're imploding because of inflation, you know, and that's gonna be reflective in our markets as well. And I think that especially you have to watch the transports, you know, and things like that. I mean, especially if unemployment does go down extremely sharply, and then if you do see at least, not necessarily a flattening, but a rise in any type of inflationary numbers, you know, like with CPI and PPI, then I think, yeah, absolutely, they could jump back on the hawkish stance, maybe not in July, but they might start leaning towards saying, hey, if these numbers start trending back up, that we will be going back on the hawkish stance. You know, so I think that's in a one to three month period. That's how you can look at it. Nice, yeah. Hey, we have a question now. We got a caller on the hour, right? Let's jump over. We got Jeff from New Jersey and they got a question for you, Teddy, about talking about arbitrages between cash and futures. Jeff, good morning. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Great, that was my question for Teddy. Is it possible to find arbitrage opportunities between the FX cash market and futures market? Yeah, so what you're talking about there is like when you're trading premium at a discount or at, okay, like for instance, if you're talking about trying to pull that kind of ARB off, you have to have first of all, really good liquidity and really good data feeds. That is very, very key. So in order to pull it off too, you gotta look at what, if you're gonna try and do that, you have to make sure that you're trading the front month future for sure. And you gotta be careful around the rollover months. So I would say that, especially like when you have, you know, your rollover, your expirations for those contracts would be March, June, September and December. So during those four months or especially like the last week of the month prior to that, I'd be very careful trying to pull off an arbitrage between the cash market and the futures because you have a lot of spread rollovers which will cause a price differential where it's gonna really scramble that trade up. But there is, like for instance, when it comes to numbers especially, if you have a lead in one, you can lay off in the other. So I would say when you have, but now once again, that gets back to your liquidity, if you don't have a very solid connection, you're gonna be behind the curve or your execution's not gonna come off that well in either the futures or in the cash market especially. You know, so that's kind of trade. You understand because they catch up with each other so quickly? Yeah, that's exactly what it is. You know, I mean, to really pull off that trade successfully, you're looking more at an institutional type of trading environment where you really, really, really have to have direct market access. So if you don't have those components, I would just try, I'm just gonna be honest with you, it's gonna be very rough to try and pull off that kind of a trade, you know? I mean, does it exist? Absolutely, just the ability to pull off consistently those trades, that's gonna be very, very difficult. So, but it does exist. I mean, especially like you can do it for both the S&Ps, you can do it for the bonds, you can do it for the cash, you know, for the currencies that trade does exist. And usually like what you have to do is look at the trend premium. You know, for instance, if your market's trending higher, okay, for instance, whether it's a euro, pound, whatever versus whatever currency and that futures. If you see one that really, really jumps and you're gonna probably see it more in the cash and the futures, you know, that would be a situation where you can sometimes catch that lag and that arc. So those are the situations where if you're gonna look for that trade, those are the moments where you have to be there. Those are your most highest probability of having those situations and being able to execute. You know, so it's something that on a day to day basis, hour in by hour out, it's gonna be a very tough trade and I wouldn't, I would advise against it though, just to be, you know, straight. So it sounds like for the retail trader to, if you notice a jump in the cash market, quick, go look at the futures market. If it hasn't jumped yet, maybe it's about to. Right, exactly. Now, but remember, if you're trying to do that trade, you're looking for a scalp, that's not something that's gonna hang on very long, especially with the futures because you have the spreads. You have to take that into account. And Jeff, I think, Teddy, if you can, I'm not put words, but I think what Teddy's saying as well is, you know, the technology that you need and it's almost something that in a lot of places, if it was that simple though, Jeff, wouldn't computers almost be not computers? But, you know, if it was that simple where, you know, cash is moving and then you just get ahead of the futures, isn't that where you're really dealing with almost, this is where AI and computers are almost starting to take over to eliminate a lot of those ARB opportunities. Is that true? Exactly. That's why I was asking is that I figured the futures in the cash market must be so tightly bound and computers are so fast. And there's so many traders that you might be able to, Jeff, like Teddy was saying, but I think that was a great answer, Teddy, because man, that's, you just gotta be so fast nowadays with computers, Jeff, I'd be careful. Yeah. Okay, great. Thanks guys. Thanks for the call. Teddy, can you stick around for one more segment? All right, let's look at some of the levels and some of the currencies. We'll be right back folks. Okay. Welcome back folks. We have the market in red territory, S&Ps off by 21 points. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegsdad. Don't forget to check out the Tiger Forex report folks. And Teddy, I just wanna jump right into it. Maybe we could talk a little bit of yen because I know the yen is doing some stuff. Gold really getting hit. What do you think of the yen action as we push some lofty levels here? I'm pulling up the chart as we speak as we're trading at 142.24. You've talked to us. I mean, it's interesting when I look at the dollar next, Teddy, versus something like the yen, which boy, you got a trend, man. We're making new recent highs today at 142.25. You got gold pulling back recently as usually it could be the cases that yen trades higher. Yes. Well, we have new highs coming today and that's for sure already, which is nice. I like the trend, you know? I mean, even with the Fed on pause, I think that your overall, you have strength in the US dollar yen. I'm a buy break forecast right now for this market for a while. I see no reason to think that the trend would start to become very bearish. For, I don't see any reason why it would. There's no variables fundamental or technical that I can see coming about. I really do like the lows that we set a couple of weeks ago. I think that's a very good support base for the US dollar yen. Even if we have a pullback, I think you're gonna find it hard to fall below that area. And I like higher move highs over the next, not just few sessions, but over the next few weeks for the US dollar yen. Nice. You can't deny the trend, man. 142.26 for sure. And that price level looks at about 139. Is that where you're looking at the end about where it was at beginning of June when I looked for some support? I would say the lowest I would see them getting down to would be about 138.5. But yeah, around 139 even, I think you have a very good support level there. Okay, nice. Well, Teddy, I appreciate it as always, man. We appreciate the education as always. And we look forward to talking to you next week, man. All right, sounds good. Take care, Tommy.