 Hello, good evening, everyone. I hope everybody's doing well. Once again, my name is Ali Khmedi with TICMIL and we are continuing on with our webinar series focused on the futures market and the products that are available, the securities and sectors within the futures market and the capital markets. I hope everybody has had a good trading week this last week since we last spoke on Tuesday of last week. And in continuation of our theme of what we're going to be discussing in today's webinar is specifically the copper market and the futures outlook from various analysts and forecasts across the market and investment firms. That being said, we've had a lot of volatility, as we all have seen and are seeing in the market currently as we speak right now the market's down a bit it's about down 200 points the Dow 4445 points on S&P, and currently as we speak right now copper spot is around 37. That being said, we're getting today's future, futures webinar on the copper's market and looking at the various forecasts and perspectives. Now, this was a snapshot taken earlier today of the spot market of copper's futures. It's a little bit bigger for us so we can all see it. And at the time of this particular snapshot, it was at three spot 76. It's right now at three spots 75. So about the same from the time when this particular slide was put in the presentation. And that gives us an outlook or a picture depiction of where the copper market is as we speak in today's market. Now, if we roll out to have to charts first to look at the first one here on the left is the December of 2022 futures contract. And the one on the right is July, sorry, June of July 2023 contract. The price on the December 22 contract is trading at three spot 8055 and for one year out, it's trading at three spot 78090. What can we depict and what can we learn and gain from these particular two contracts that we're looking at knowing that the current spot prices trading at three spots 75. You don't see too much movement in these two contracts six months out from now and even 12 months out from now. From my perspective, throughout the years that I've been involved in the market, which have been quite a few. It tells me two things. One, there's quite a bit of supply in the market, and two, they're waiting to see what's going to happen on the demand side, regarding supply chain disruptions coming out of China and various countries within South America, and more specifically what's going to happen with the EV markets, the electronic vehicle market, since it will have a considerable amount of say, I will say ramifications but it will have good perspective on the needs as the forecast for the EV market continue to go out to 2025 and 2030 now it's been predicted that by 2030 50% of the automobile market will be an EV vehicle. If that stands true, then the demand for copper in particular will grow considerably over the years, as it is one of the main ingredients for, let's say, materials used for the EV markets, but the EV market is only one particular sector. As there are many revolving around the copper market, but if you're looking now at where the spot prices, six months out it's only five points, the futures contract above where the current prices and if you go out a full 12 months from now it's only three points above the current spot price. So that tells me quite a bit just from looking at the particular chart from a technical perspective, but we're going to discuss further now. For those of you that have been following along throughout the series I'd like to keep the webinar discussion in an informal conversational manner, so that we can get, or I can at least get the points across and a more understandable way so it's not too technical and this is the financial terminology that can get you or could make you confused. If we get into what analysts from various companies, firms and local firms, banks, financial firms, etc. Like we did last week with gold. I'm going to give you various perspectives from across the market from an analog perspective of what their outlook for copper is in particular from trading economics calm. I'm expecting copper to trade at four spot $21 and 21 cents per pound by the end of this quarter. Well, the end of this quarter literally is the end of this week, and it's trading at three spots seven five. So that gives you an idea not to say that trading in economics is worthless and they don't know what they're doing and they're not worth taking a look at it's quite the contrary. It's more information for us to digest and to analyze. Now looking forward, they estimate it to trade down to three spot nine five in 12 months time. So the 12 month contract is trading at three spots seven eight according to the to the previous slide that I was showing their forecast 12 months out is at three spot nine five, and their current quarterly outlook is at $4 and 21 cents for spot 21 when it's trading right now at three spots seven five, but according to the graph if you look at the chart at the spot chart. It has stopped it's downward trend and it's trying to pull back a bit so we could see what happens over the next couple of days but four spot 21 is a bit of a stretch and reach and my opinion, but nothing is impossible as we all know anything can happen in the marketplace. From this out of the way, from capital.com, the copper market climbed to a five week high at the end of last week now this is when I say dated material this is dated within the month of July. As the prospect of tightening supply out of Latin America coincided with China or Shanghai's reopening from the covert lock down. What recent volatility, what does recent volatility mean for the market for the rest of 2022, we will look at the current market drivers and review future copper price predictions from key analysts. They go on to say that traders liquidated their long positions as macroeconomic data from China showed the impact of lockdowns on consumption, and despite government stimulus and reduced regulatory pressure in the housing sectors sales of new homes and 23 major cities dropped 33% year on year during a five day national holiday in early May. And continues housing construction is one of the biggest consumers of copper for a wiring plumbing and home appliances, and that goes back to being one of the different sectors within the copper market itself outside of the EV electronic vehicle market that I mentioned, just a few moments ago, as we got the webinar started. So if we look at this particular data. It's basically telling us okay. The news with Latin America coinciding with China reopening from their lockdown they've had an elongated lockdown recently, I think it lasted five or six weeks and they're coming out of it now. But there has been a drop in a severe drop basically 33%. That's not a small drop by any means in new homes across 3323 major cities. So, with that being said, with the demand for housing or new homes being built. That's going to put a decrease on demand in the copper market as well. Moving on to other analysts. This is from the Deutsche Bank Saxo Saxo Bank itself. They noted that the price broke through now we're dealing with technical analysis here from their perspective through a technical resistance at $4 and 35 cents to reach $4 and 55 with the reopening of the Chinese government, releasing new guidelines to accelerate clean energy growth, including the construction of major wind and solar farm projects. Now analysts at Saxo, specifically named Kim Morrison noted that the relative strength index otherwise the RSI closed above the 60 threshold back to positive territory and confirming the upward trend. Again, this is information and data analytical data coming from this particular month of June, and they are looking at more of an upward trend, based on the reopening of China, and at the same time, the acceleration of their clean energy political agenda for growth within the clean energy and solar sector. Once again, copper is also a major ingredient or component within these materials needed raw materials needed to enhance and make these projects viable. Zayner, which is let me just make this a little, there we go. Their forecast coming out of end of first quarter basically copper prices should see support from the news that Chilean copper production in April declined a whopping 8.9%. That's also a very big decline in their opinion copper bulls need consistent optimism flowing from equities to extend the recent rally. Now what they're referring to here now, the correlation between the equity markets to help bolster and hold up any type of bullish trend that copper is looking for will need to come from positive and bullish trend sentimentism if you want market sentiment from the equity markets, which we all know at the moment, over the course of this particular month in June has not been taken place now we've seen a couple of days where we've seen the equity markets, you know, pop up a couple of percentage points, and then again, you know yesterday was a positive day but then we look at the markets today. It's again down so we're in choppy territory. In my opinion, choppy territory with downward sentiment, which is the complete opposite of what copper bulls in Zayner's analytical perspective is looking for from a consistent bullish trend for the copper market for to continue in its upward trend. So if you look at Scotiabank out of Canada, their long term forecast had the price table at an average of $4 and 25 cents pound or in point terminology for spot to five points in both 20 and 2022 and 2023. So here they've taken more of, let's say, a conservative analytical outlook, and the sense that they're not giving us a specific target range for a range or a time period that consists of 18 months. So that's a quite a bit of time for any type of analyst not to give any specific direction in between they're just basically saying from here until end of 2023 we expect the price of copper to hover around four spot 25 plus or minus. So then again, this is just more information and more data for us to digest and look at stored in our mental capacity in the final cabinet, as we continue to do research across this particular sector with this particular metal itself and see or decide on if this is something that one, we want to put in our portfolio to if we currently already have exposure to copper in our portfolio, how to protect it or hedge, depending on what type of position you currently have in your portfolio and three, the outlook of in general, if you're looking at their focusing if you pay attention to the wording that the analyst and the previous slides have discussed. We're talking about due to ABC XYZ out of specific countries, no COVID pandemic lockdown opening up due to growth and clean energy sector projects being lifted off due to market sentiment. Notice they'll always use some sort of, let's say, an introduction as to why they think copper is going to do up down or stay sideways and the market based on other market related matters. So, from this perspective, they are saying, okay, Scotiabank for the remainder of this year remainder of 2023. For the next 18 months, we're expecting copper to stay around the plus or minus four spot 25 and as we spoke earlier, you know, is trading at three spot 75 at the well, this is happening our webinar. The World Bank. Now, this is getting a little more into the semantics and details that you could really use as a determining factor in whether you want to take a position in copper futures specifically and or to hedge what you have in your current portfolios, depending on what you're invested in. And the copper market according to the World Bank has been affected by water shortages. Here we go. We're talking about those semantics again, we have water shortages in Chile, labor disputes in Peru. The number of prices are projected to increase 8% in 2022 as constraints in Chile and Peru persist. And as, as one of China's major smelters is facing credit issues. So when we look at the credit issues that are facing China. We're looking at the macro economic level. Okay, that that has several different elements to take into consideration and it's not only focused on the copper market per se. So you have to understand when you read that, how you digest it and keep it in context. The prices are expected to ease in 2023, which means when they say ease tend to produce a downtrend. However, as new projects come online, including in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia and Peru upside risks to the outlook include further supply disruptions in Russia, while a more severe slow down in global growth poses the greatest risk. So from World Bank's perspective, they are looking at a possible short term bump. Here they specifically say an 8% bump in 2022, but then again getting into the semantics and details, citing several different countries here, where we're talking about Chile, Peru, China, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia and Russia. Due to all those issues that each one of these geographic locations are going through. Some of them could be overlapping some of them different in a completely different enough themselves are going to provide a greater slow down and downturn or downside risk to the copper market, which means in 2023, if you wanted to specifically only use this particular piece of data from the World Bank, then you're looking at a downturn in the copper market, lower prices from where they are now by the end of 2023. Once again, we've got a lot of time to cover a lot of ground to cover between now and end of 2023. And we're talking about one and a half years. A lot of things can happen in 18 months. There's a lot of speculation as to what may happen with the US market. Are we going to get into a recession? Are we not? Are we going to flirt with the recession and avoid it with a soft landing? A lot of the things that I've been reading and have been coming across is that the Fed may end up just giving up on the actual battle against inflation and realize that they're late to the game. But they will do the best they can to ensure a soft landing versus a hard landing. If you get into a hard landing, then we're getting into recessionary territory, which would propel it into an actual recession. And what a recession is, is when you have slowing growth over two consecutive quarters, that information is lagging. That's not information that we have on the spot up to date to tell us where the GDP is specifically as of today, June 28, 2022, the information that's always provided by the government has a lag. So by the time we are in a recession, that information once it's released will only validate if we are in a recession or not. So we have to do our research, getting back to everything that I've been talking about regarding your specific portfolio, what you're looking to do with your financial investment accounts or account itself revolves around doing as much due diligence as we can, trying to put together the writing on the wall that could be right in front of us. Maybe it's obvious, sometimes more obvious than others, which can be difficult when it's not as obvious. So specifically speaking, getting back on topic with the copper market. Most of the analysts that we've come across in these examples in this particular webinar are showing more of, let's say a price easing, a downturn, more supply in the market than the demand at the moment due to a number of reasons getting back to the semantics. But ING, a bank out of the Netherlands, the support authorities should increase the odds that the renewable energy sector will continue to see strong growth and support the demand for copper and aluminum. So what have I been showing you on the previous slides? Information and data coming from the semantics details from various countries, various analysts, various financial firms, giving their reason as to why they feel that copper could see easing between now and basically out as far as end of 2023. Now, here we have ING, which is a very well known bank throughout Europe, and globally for that matter. And here they're coming out saying they do to the renewable energy sector, okay, they continue to see strong growth and support the demand for copper and aluminum, which is the contrary to what we've seen on the previous slides. So this goes back again, as I have mentioned to you earlier in previous webinars, you can't just stick to one source of data and information and make your calculations only off of that one source. You've got to look at the market as a whole. It's constantly moving. And at the same time, there are variables that neither you or I will ever have any control over, such as geopolitical risk, like we've seen what happened in Russia and Ukraine. And at the same time, what's somewhat forecastable and manageable with what the Fed is doing with the interest rate hikes in the United States while we're saying the market down, you know, plus or minus 20% on the S&P 500 year to date. If that gets into an actual recession, like again, once again, we have to wait for the data to come out so there's going to be a lag there. You could see an additional 20 to 30% downside on S&P 500 if they're not available, if they're not able to avoid a hard landing. The soft landing comes into play. Now we're talking into the macroeconomic picture again. What will the Fed do Q1 2023? Well, there's possibility if their predictions and their, you know, forecast and foresight is on the money from their perspective because you have to remember, like I told you last webinar, the United States Federal Reserve, their sole responsibility is to maintain US dollar and US government economic policy. That is it. That is their sole objective. Okay. So if they're trying to steer this train wreck, that's possible train wreck that's happening before them as we speak, due to inflation and slowing growth, supply chain management disruptions, et cetera, et cetera. And we get into a soft landing territory for them to maneuver the Fed, meaning for them to maneuver. Then by Q1 2023, we could see quantitative easing coming back into play because Shuanna in 2024, from a US perspective in 2024, it's an election year. And not that we're here to talk politics, but it is intertwined with the economics and the markets. So from a democratic perspective, which the Democratic Party has control of the White House at the moment. The sentiment right now is not that positive out of the US. US markets are struggling. And the Democratic Party, if they continue to let things move along as they have been since they've taken office post Trump, then they're going to be in a world of pain in the 2024 elections. So not that we are gamblers or, or better, but I can assure you that the White House from a political perspective is going to try to apply pressure on the Fed for the US markets to provide some sort of short term, because we do have a very short term memory as humans, specifically when it comes to investing in the capital markets, so that come election time 2024. They need some positive news and that could come from printing more money, which would mean quantitative easing, which means there's more money in the market, which would pop straight back into the markets. And then we could see a turnaround in 2024 from, I don't know, a downward cycle of 2030, maybe 40% on the S&P 500, possibly, but all of these are affecting every specific sector that we're discussing. I'm getting back into copper. I didn't mean to get off on a tangent, but from a comment I'd like to keep things conversational is that keeping your eye on the big picture, understanding what's happening around what you're interested in. And being able to map and put together a better understanding of what's taking place, specifically today within copper, the market, the demand is going to come back. The previous analysts are saying that they're seeing no demand due to XYZ, ABC, there's more supply so they're going to see more downward pressure and easing on the price throughout 2022 to 2023. And then here we get an analyst coming out of ING saying that they do see strong, that's a very powerful word if you read in between the lines, they don't see, they're not saying we see growth, we see strong growth and support for the demand and the copper and aluminum market. So is this going to happen? Yes, it's going to happen. When is it going to happen? Nobody knows. As we all know, the global markets, along with geopolitical agendas, we're all pushing for cleaner energy, renewable energy, and copper is a major, major, major ingredient in this sector. So when it does take off, it's not a matter of if it's just a matter of when, then you're going to see copper prices fly. It's just nobody can time the market ever at all perfectly. It's just a matter of understanding your surroundings, what's taking place, and if you want to start building your futures portfolio in a time where, prior to this particular slide, analysts are looking at downward trend and easing in the copper market, then usually from an investment manager's perspective, like myself, when you're investing, you always would rather invest on the low end and sell at the high end. So you've heard the buy low sell high. You can never buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. So this is a prime opportunity to take a look at this particular security, copper and specific. Do your research and see what you come up with. This one coming from wallet investor, here's another bullish forecast for them. Their forecast is bullish in the long term, predicting that the price could reach as high as $5 and 40 cents per pound by end of 2023, up from $4 and 77 cents at the end of 2022, rising a further $6. Up to $6.68 by the end of 2025, and up to $7.58 and five years time. So, here we have an extremely bullish forecast. You can take the ing sentiment from the previous slide where they see strong growth and demand due to renewable energy projects that will be coming into play. And then here we have this particular forecast coming from wallet investor where is just nothing but an uptick. They're predicting by the year from now sorry six months from now it should be according to them at four spots 77. Well, where it was trading. Currently, it's at 376. It was at 375 at the beginning of the webinar, it's up to 376 60 as we speak now so it's got to move, it's got to move a full point. And then from the year 2022, and then from there it's going to move up according to them by end of 2023, an additional, what's that 40 plus 23 another 63 basis points for it to reach its 542 target. So here 2025 and 20 and five years time to 758 is nothing but an upward trend. Now that does not mean by any means that you're going to see the graph just move up with no volatility, no choppiness whatsoever. Do not take it by any means and context that is just going to be a one, one way arrow in an upward tick or trend without any volatility or choppiness. Now, are they going to be accurate only time will tell only time will tell for all of them. But this is an extremely bullish forecast so if you're a copper bull and you're reading this, or seeing this, and you're saying, wow, you know it's trading at 376. No, I can get, you know, one year out from now 12 months time I think that if I recall right on the previous slide here was trading 378. Okay, 12 months from now, you can get a 12 in July of 2023, you can get a futures contract for 378. And here they're saying by end of 23 it can be 542. You know, it seems like heck of a deal, but you got to be careful, you got to tread very carefully. And again, look at all of the data. The key takeaways from the copper market overview. As we've seen from various analysts the carpet the copper market seems to be well supplied in 2022. And based on this surplus is expected to continue over the two years now I put this as a key takeaway because I didn't include every single piece of data and information that I came across while putting together this particular webinar, but in doing what I do within the markets. There is a lot of supply of carpet of copper in the market. And this is why you see more analysts and more forecast on the easing side and bearish on the price side in the shorter term, at least over the next six months, based on this particular surplus. Even though a rise in demand is anticipated which I just discussed a few, just a few minutes earlier, this will not be enough to supply to absorb the increase in supply. This is nothing more than short term analytical crunching, if you will, where we will have growth in the renewable energy sector growth in the EV sector growth. At some point in time in the housing market, the housing market in the US is slumping the housing market in China is slumping and had a very big slump. But when the housing market stabilizes. And it turns back into a buyer's market, then you're going to see a huge demand for copper specifically. So those are just some of the key sectors that need this particular element and metal for these projects and sectors to take off. Like always do your research. This is a classic example of a lot. I put a lot several analysts forecasting more supply in the market which in turn could drive the price down over the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. So, where it stands right now. If you take a look at the copper markets graph specifically expanded here on my other screen. I mean, from the time it hit. From 480 to 485 mark plus or minus, you know, it dropped down all the way. And that hit back end of May beginning of sorry end of April beginning of May, it drops from that high down to 403 and mid May. I don't know if you want to call it a bull trap, but it gave us a short term spike. During the course of May and it spiked back up to 455 or 57, but since that high up until we're speaking right now, if you look at its, it's, it's chart. It's done nothing but plummet literally like a rock in water. There has been no rebound until possibly where we are now discussing this webinar this evening. This drop from 457 on June 6 to where we are today at 376 over the course of what 2022 days 21 days. And I don't know has it found the floor where we've seen two green candlesticks over the last couple of days, providing maybe some light, not at the end of the tunnel but light in terms of this particular chart that it may have reached this particular point and provide us a little bit of a push back into an uptrend but if you can take a look at this the sentiment if you look at the chart overall. It is a bearish chart. And this does support a lot of what the analysts were saying, getting back to more supply in the market than demand, due to getting into semantics from different or several geographic locations globally. And getting into specific market sectors, specifically housing itself and the renewable energy and growth projects. So, this is what I have for this evening, regarding copper, and I always like to leave on a quote, this one's from Warren Buffett. I'm sure most of you know who he is if not, he's in his nineties now but he's very, he's a CEO and chairman of Bertram Houthway, and he's a very famous American investor and philanthropist known for his, his classic investment strategies. And here he gets into his quote, wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. And that goes back to what we have mentioned, literally from day one of understanding what the futures contracts are, how what compromises what they're compromised comprised of how they operate in the capital markets who uses them why they're used. And then it gets into market practice and now we're starting to get into the market outlook, and so forth. So, when managing money. You have, you should have a very specific strategy in mind around what you know, and the only way you can get to that specific, what you know, level of understanding is by engaging in as much information and data and research as you possibly can. You know, and what you know and learn more about it, and stay very focused. Because if you start getting scattered and you've got contracts across several different sectors that that may or may not even be correlated with one another. And diversify the portfolio so that you know if something goes up you hope that the other, the, if something goes down rather than some other area in your portfolio will go up and you know will hedge out. But the territory that we're in now and why I put this particular comment is we are at a very dangerous predicament within the capital markets, specifically from the US markets themselves. We've inflation is too high, the Fed is too late with raising rates. And if they give up on the quantitative tightening, and they start quantitative easing easing again, and q1 and q2 of 2023 to try to for political reasons for otherwise to try to prop up the capital markets and try to increase GDP. They've printed too much money way too fast. And at some point in time, it, you know, it's like musical chairs when the music stops, you're going to, you're going to end up finding one chair. Not enough, and one chair less and, you know, you're going to be out of the game. And when, when we say you're out of the game, when you're dealing with futures, because of their volatility because of the way that they're priced, if you're not careful and understand what you're doing with your price targets, you know, you know, getting out of the game means you're liquidated out of the position, and you've got to contemplate, you know, do I invest more money to get back into the markets, or or not. And the markets are the markets, and they operate the way that they operate, and we can only do the best we can in protecting ourselves. Doing and learning as much as we can about what we want to invest in. So that being said, that's what I have for tonight on copper, but open it up for Q&A. If anybody has any questions, please go ahead. You can send them to me via chat. See here. We have any questions? Perfect. Next week, I wish everybody the best of luck this particular week. Happy trading, stay focused, stay attentive, and we will be again, continue with the webinar series next week with a different particular product within a different sector, and we'll dig a little deeper with the analytics and the forecast for that particular series next week. But that being said, have a good evening and good night. Take care.