 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network This week in the NFL seems to be defined by weird vibes whether that be the Colts coaching situation the Buccaneers are then going on with them the Chargers whatever's going on with them. We've got the stuff with Josh Allen It's a very weird week on tap and it's hard to know how much should we care about strain vibes How much we care about all this stuff going on We're trying to break that down and get you some profitable bets based on all that by talking to Ryan Williams He's gonna preview the biggest games of week 10 and get you set for his favorite bets of this week at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sanna. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan Interesting week on tap this week. How you doing today? Oh, yeah, we're doing we're doing good Jim We're feeling feeling a little weird about week 10 as well, but that's that's why we're here Right, we're here to dissect the things with the people to give them some insight into into where they should be Placing their money this week So we got an interesting week where this is the most teams coming off of a buy as as well But yeah, like you said, there's just some there's just some ugly situations that are happening And especially with being you know past the midway point of the season We can see injuries really start to take take a hold or just pass the trade deadline. So we got teams settling in But there's some interesting stuff that we can discuss You made it back a quarterbacks in Buffalo, Los Angeles the Rams Arizona potentially with with Kyla Murray now on the injured board It's a weird week We're gonna break it down and try to get you some winning bets out of it in just one second First a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because our college football week Number 11 show with dr. Ed Fang is already up breaking down his fare bets week 11 And also we did take a quick look at the World Cup Ed runs his own numbers for World Soccer You can find all those power right calm We broke down his rankings what it means to the betting markets and much more will talk more World Cup with Ed Going forward so get that by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and you can also find all these shows up on the fan dual YouTube page as well Now is the perfect time to download fan dual America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first bed up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Trout features like same-game parlays play your way and bet on more than just the final score Wager on everything from touchdowns total yards to catches all on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use So sign up today for your no sweat first bet make every moment more this season with fan Dual official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refundition is known with drawable free bets that expire at 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fan dual calm gambling problem call 1800 gambler over some handle calm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or Texan acceptified 3 3 4 2 In Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccp g.org says chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 105 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health calm in Louisiana 187 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y or in Tennessee call the red line at 188 9 9 7 8 9 now we'll start things off in the week 10 discussion by talking about those odd situations the bad vibe spots because I think the the primary catalyst there is a cult we'll talk about them as Like the example here. They fired Frank Reich. They hired Jeff Saturday who is not on the coaching staff They don't have a guy who's called plays previously and in the process the spread went from five and a half to six and a half Back to six and it's now back to five and a half So I want to ask you how you handle these situations because my numbers were not showing value at five and a half But we're at six and a half and I didn't bet it because I was confused about a how to handle this But I want to ask you how do you handle? Teams when there's just a massive level of stink around them or do you just avoid it and avoid it entirely? Yeah, it feels like avoid entirely and the only reason I say that it's just because how the Raiders have been playing I mean if this was another team on the other side that we could trust that probably the line would be different Right because you're seeing the money That's coming in the money and the bets are all over the Raiders At whatever the line is and that's because the cults right now are dumpster fire And this could be you know, maybe Jim Merseys behind the scenes pulling the strings and being like Yeah, we want to get you know a top three picks so that we can get our franchise quarterback back because we know that they haven't had Great success at the quarterback position outside of Peyton Manning who's carried the team or carried the franchise But um, yeah, it's just an ugly look. I mean when you're talking about bringing somebody in from outside of the building We don't know how the coaching staff is gonna rally behind them. You got the backup quarterback who starting a young kid They don't have any offensive coordinator right now as I take it So when you're looking at this line, it's like, you know, you want to really lean on that Raiders side But how can you trust the Raiders? I mean they've been a dumpster fire pretty much all season long So it really makes it tough for me I'm gonna bet I'd have probably the total and bet the under and just expect this to be an ugly game The Raiders haven't been able to you know show any offensive life outside of the first half Maybe the first quarter they've come out swinging a couple times and then I've laid flat So, you know, I just look at this situation and just reeks of stink to me Yeah, I think that that's kind of why I stayed away And like there were spots earlier this year where I was betting on teams that had bad vibes And it was to make results, but so I'm not totally against it But I think this one is just a lot of unknowns now. There are people who can quantify the value of play callers and kind of You know find ways around that Drogensik a whalecapper who works for NBC Sports Edge now, but also the deep dive podcast he has numbers that quantify play callers and so You know, you can kind of use that as a crush if you've got access to that I don't I know I'm not I don't have that advanced level so I can't do that But there are people who can do it. I'm not there So I think that I'd rather in general my default is I'd rather make no bet than make a bad bet So that's where I wound up here as well I've actually got this as a pretty efficient line now at five and a half got a five point four So if it's an efficient line before accounting for that stuff, I'm just gonna stay away and you know Be okay with that and have a little bit less of a stress for a little bit less stress on my plate when Sunday rolls around Let's talk about some natural games here Let's go out to Munich for the Seahawks and the Bucks the Bucks three point favorites here Total is forty four and a half and we did see the Bucks rally to top the Rams, which was good for me I had their money lines. I was very grateful. Thank you Tom Was there enough though for you in that game to think the Bucks are fully back There there was enough. There was enough. I looked at this line pretty pretty intently When you know, you sent the notes to me and I'm kind of figuring out where where things fall for myself And you know, I think initially I really wanted to lean Bucks here Yeah, because they you know, they are getting three It's a key number you're looking at how this team just rallied behind Tom and everything that was said in the in the post game press conferences And you could tell that the you know, just the monkey off the back the weight of it off the shoulders I'm a team that way and you look at the Tampa Bay defense and you know, I know they've had some secondary injuries So to speak but this will be one of the toughest that Gino's faced in a while He's had you know, the chance to go up against some, you know Really cupcake defense is there that have led to you know, and he's even made mistakes in that regard But you know, it is a neutral field, right? They are going to Munich from what I can read Through the team leaves and whatnot. There are a lot of Seattle fans That are in Germany who are planning to be at this game So it could be you know, the 13th man For Seattle showing up there and I think the thing about the seahawks is you know, the adversity like we haven't seen We haven't seen the Bucks be able to just go out there and like really be stellar, right? Like it's always it's coming down to the last play and you know, they're the guys are dropping passes I mean really this has been a plaguing them all season long So if things go Seattle's way to kind of start this early Like I think that they can just you know ride with this and have the lead and really force Tampa Bay and Tom to have to do something on the opposite side. So, you know, Gino Even with the mistakes that he made, you know last week I think he you know through the through the pick six or Two interceptions late. Um, he was able to rally behind that and he's still able to get these double digit leads And you know, he's got the backing of Pete Carroll who's you know, defending him in the media The team has really rally behind him and it's a Gino resurgence Gino renaissance So I'm I'm going to Seattle as we've been doing the past couple weeks and taking the points Yeah, I think I am too now I haven't bet this yet because this is one that that moved overnight and moved into a zone Where I actually was showing value because it was pretty efficient leaning towards Seattle But then it moved overnight and the money line got to plus 130 and when I look at my The the model I trust That actually has this is being a pretty tight game. It's the box fair by 1.05 So it's still the box favored but I've got the Seattle win odds with about 3.2 percentage points of value relative to their money line so I think I kind of want to take the money line. I have not yet Because again, this didn't pop up to this morning. I was getting ready for this podcast. I didn't have time to But I think I might wind up doing it and taking that seahawks money line at plus 130 Just because the the stuff you mentioned like We know that Todd Bowles wants to stop the run So maybe he takes out Kenneth Walker and that could neutralize that but they've got Tyler Lockett They've got DK mech app Gino is playing well, even when those guys have been banged up and now they're healthier than they have been so Great, maybe it's dumb, but like I do feel like I want to take the Seattle money line at plus 130 Given that my numbers are showing value. My 2022 only model is not surprisingly also showing value in Seattle I think that was kind of a given But the the one that has iron there as well is also showing value on them so I think when we have both those things converging and I like betting on Gino Smith I think I am gonna you know after we're done with the show probably go ahead and take that plus 130 money line on Seattle because I think that's long enough where I feel pretty good about it Right and you and you're looking at this game and you're thinking I mean I think I can talk myself in a way that the bucks Win by three in this game, but you know if you take the buck side, then you're looking you're looking at a void vet You're looking at you push you need them to win by four So I just don't know if I'm willing to to put my money on that quite yet They got to show us a little something more So I mean the rims was good to see Because it got them that win And put them in that column, but the rims have been an absolute dumpster fire All seized along and going off of the off of the high of winning the Super Bowl So, uh, yeah, that's I don't know how much we can we can invest in that situation We're just back on Gino again, man And it feels doesn't feel that bad I'm not gonna lie. It doesn't feel that bad. I'm pretty excited about it. But we'll see how that one goes Let's go now to the vikings at the bills obviously the big storyline here is josh allen's health right now as of thursday morning Uh bills three and a half point favorites total is 43 and a half and I'm guessing based on this line The bookmakers are assuming there's about a 90 chance that josh allen does not go like this is kind of a Hybrid line of 90 josh allen 10 casekina. That's kind of my read on them at least but It seems like he's probably not going to play so with that assumption in mind Are you seeing any value in these markets with where things stand right now? Yeah, this is another one that I kind of toyed with a lot because I kind of wanted I kind of wanted to take the bill side In the off chance that they do let josh allen play. I mean that you know the afc Number one seed picture is still open and off of that loss against the jets like they really, you know You could say that they're just going to let them get healthy for the postseason that's what it's all about But at a certain point, you know, I think home field advantage really meant a lot to buffalo as we saw last year Um that they really want to try and play these games at home and not be going on the road They have more success. Sean McDermott has not won a road playoff game I believe in his career. So uh coaching the coaching buffalo So I'm really interested in that plus you get the case keenum Stefan digs narrative of going against the minnesota team like everybody is riding high With kirk. I believe the the numbers that I was seeing were astronomical. Yeah, vikings are getting 80 86 of the money 65 percent of the bets and and that just kind of it just feels gross because this is still a team Like case keenum is a competent quarterback. Like we've seen him, you know get teams to the play house He knows the system pretty well and they could really scheme things up on the other side that can make things difficult It's not an easy place to play in buffalo. So do we get, you know, classic kirk where he's just going out there and not making Anything happen. We know this is a tough matchup for dalvin cook I am interested also to see where the secondary and and and honestly front seven pieces coming for buffalo I know malano's been on the injury report poyers been on the injury report And is tray white coming back. So This is this is one where i'm holding pat right now, but I do think that if I had to make a bet I'd probably put it at the three and a half right now just because of how the public's feeling on minnesota And there you know There's seven and one but like who have who have they played right? And I know that that sole loss is to philly people are riding with that But this bill's team is is structured in a way To be able to kind of take advantage of spots like this with josh on being out for one game Yeah, the vikings are a weird one because they've played this would be the fourth back of quarterback they faced and You could say oh well that means they're totally fraudulent But it's important to remember that like one of those backups was ante dalton and like he's Become the starter because of how he's played. He's been better than james so far this year So that's that's one of the situations they faced So like the the stat about them facing a lot of back of quarterbacks is Flawed I think I would say I would expect matt mulano to play this week. He mentioned that he Was on the injured port he didn't play last week But he didn't get in a limited practice on a friday of last week and then again on wednesday this week So mulano is probably gonna play But I think that the vikings will probably be able to move the ball decently well on the ground here because mulano played against in that green bay game And green bay's rushing efficiency there was astronomical I don't know why they kept running it outside of the fact that like they couldn't throw I think the vikings will be able to move the ball here better than a lot of teams have been able to against the bills just because of It seems like whether it be injuries piling up or something else It seems like there's been a bit of a regression from the bill's defense It's not enough where I want to bet the vikings plus three now I got their money line plus 270 on monday before the when allen reports were sort of coming out So i'm going to stand pat and let just like let that ride But I think that even if I didn't have that I'd probably just stay away because like he said kinem is competent. We saw that last year with the browns He was okay in commanding that offense. We've seen him in other spots before. He's not a total nothing and Stefan digs got that uh the the the revenge game there as well So I think for me it's a stay away as well. I am curious to see how the bills play here, but um I think it'll be one right rather just watch it rather than have any action on it personally Fair enough. I I do like the under as well in this game under 43 and a half Regardless of who the quarterback is if it's kinem or if it's josh allen in a limited fashion I just feel like the way that this is kind of shaping up. We're getting buffalo weather You know kind of just one of those things where I think both of those teams will just go out really try and You know be physical grind it out. Um, I could see it really being an under game Yeah, and if josh allen does play he's not going to be full josh allen. I think we could say that pretty definitively Um based on the reports so far. Let's move now out west to talk about the chargers at the 49ers This is the sunday night football game where the 49ers 7 point favorites total is 45 and a half And the 49ers had to buy a week get deba sandal healthy get christian mccaffrey fully integrated But this is also a pretty big number at seven points So can they cover a big number against a frustrating chargers team? I yeah, i'm i'm back on the i'm back on the chargers bandwagon jim These are the spots where you want the chargers These are the spots where you want the chargers when they're getting points like this and we can have You know justin herbert gunslinger mentality. Um, just go out and try and win the game for them This is also in prime time. Um, this you know with seven points. This is not favor Jimmy g and kyle shanahan in in times past It will also be interesting. Um, there's been a lot of talk that joey bosa is close to returning to practice So we could get the bosa bowl in full. Um, which will be the first time I think that's a you know, that's just a fun thing to bring up I don't know how much that necessarily means to the game But I do think that means a lot for this chargers defense When you're talking about getting pressure on jimmy g and just one more element that they will have to worry about on that Offensive line that really hasn't been all that stellar. Um this year I'm not sure what the what the numbers are but just from the eye test They've they've kind of struggled in in getting jimmy g some protection We'll love to see if keenan allen mike williams are coming back for for this game But again, you know, I kind of talk about this all the time with the chargers Like it really doesn't matter who's out there running passes for this team Like justin herbert will find a way to get these guys get these guys the ball So I only think it helps this offensive helps that line. It's a solid number there at seven Even though that they're on the road still staying in the same state. I'm gonna go with the chargers here Yeah, I did too I took them on the Tuesday show talked about them there and I still feel good about it It hasn't moved it all yet, but I think that like, um, I still don't I don't feel bad about it We talked last week about how we were both on the falcon side. You had the you were smart You took the spread out you pushed and I took the money line like a moron So my bad, um, but we were both then against the chargers there and it was like You had that fear of herbert being able to overcome his situation Now you look at the stats for herbert on sunday his yards per attempt I think it was like 5.4 and it's been just awful recently But like he still looks really good. So I think my concern always with taking a A spread bet on a larger underdog my concerns They fall behind Get a negative game script and can't claw their way back to get you know, give me a possibility to back to recover I don't worry about that with the chargers I feel like it might be better if they fall behind because then herbert can let it rip like let this dude Throw it more than five yards downfield. That's all I asked for and the odds that happening are better if they're down so I'm not asking them to go down. I'm just saying that like I feel confident in their ability to make a ground if they do fall behind early I don't think a negative game script is a death sentence for them. So That's why I feel okay taking the plus seven Because I do think they can't do that now. I'm assuming that I've already marked out in my my model I've marked out keenan Allen marked out mike williams. I don't think either guy will play So this is under the assumption that they sit I've still got this is a four point game in favor of san francisco And that has a boost in there for christian mccaffrey as well Like I think he actually is difference maker and I did give the the 49ers offensive boost as a result but I can't get to seven so You're giving me a push on a key number Six is a decently key number as well and I get a win there. I get a win at three I get a win at the chargers win outright. So I think plus seven is the way to go So ryan we've both gone from betting against los angeles one week to betting on them the next and I feel like both sides It was the right play What can go wrong jim? What could go wrong? What could go wrong indeed? Let's open up the board now for you ryan Where else are you seeing value across week number 10 at fandall sportsbook? Yeah, so we'll start it off In the afternoon time slot here Team that has looked abysmal playing at home against a team that's coming off of a buy Lot of narratives around this mike mccarthy's returned to green bay We're gonna ride with the green bay plus five At lambo here speaking a bad vibe. Love it They're speaking of bad vibes exactly. So this is the biggest dog that erin rogers has been at lambo Is is what I have seen And everything is just point pointing the picture to dalis right dalis winning. They're coming off the buy It's mike mccarthy's return. This is you know Everybody's talking about dalis super bowl could be representing NFC everybody's excited for dalis and philly that game at the end of the year And you're seeing the money come in, you know on the dalis side pretty favorably But some of the bets when you're looking at the bet action It's it's just over 50 on the packers and I think that's because the sharps are kind of seeing it the same way Like this is a tough place to play. Um, I think you know, we know that green bay fans are pretty loyal They've had you know, they've had a rough time I mean the playoffs are probably out of reach But erin rogers has been talking in the media a lot talking about how he's a gamer How he bets on himself how he's still invested and so, you know, I think he's just going to try and will this team Will will the team to win now? It is going to be cold here Um in wisconsin, uh the green bay. It's looking like you know game time temperature of right around 30 We'll see if these dalis boys, you know are ready for for playing in this environment, right? Because they you know, it's it's been cushy for them and if it could get you know, if things don't break their way We can you know, see things they've been frustrated, right? We could see dad get frustrated We could see mica and in the co get frustrated there on defense. So I'm really willing to to lean five here With the packers at home this week. I'm also looking at um the afternoon side of things Anytime that the arizona cardinals are on the road and getting points I'm always looking at that but that line has moved absolutely dramatically Like I think it was six when it opened Then it was three and now it's one and a half And it doesn't feel great But you know, I think that the card I think with how the rams have been playing and matthew saffords and concussion protocol It just feels ugly like cooper cup has not looked Healthy the past couple weeks as well since he popped up on the injury report So i'm willing to take the cardinals as well there too and then bears at home because of course bears at home Going against the lion they're getting three point or they're giving three points here to the lions But the way that those this defense has looked and the way the offense has kind of been reeling Here for the bears as of late like they cannot stop the run at all So, I mean They're rushing for like 200 yards and however many straight games that it is. It's absolutely incredible So like get montgomery get herver get justin out there and and really, you know stretches defense out I really think that they they have something going here and i'm willing to take the three points with them I want to go back to packers one because I talked about that game on tuesday and I said hey My numbers are showing value in the packers, but I don't want to bet it because I was worried about Injuries and some key guys potentially getting ruled out but honestly their injury report wednesday despite it being like A cvs receipt was encouraging because uh christian watson Is in concussion protocol, but got a full practice in wednesday, which I didn't think was like legal Um, which tells me that he probably had it might have been in a modern rock Say brown situation where he didn't actually have one Because he had one in week eight two and I was like, okay, he's he might go on ir if he has one two two games in a row I don't think he had one based on that practice report So watson seemed like he's probably gonna play and then also erin jones Is x ray, so it seems like he'll play he was limited on wednesday, too So I have not bet this yet I'm still hesitant because again the bad vibes. Um, the vibes meter in the model is uh is chirpin Um, but I do show value both in my my model that has priors and my model that is 2022 only now There's less value in that one it has uh the Cowboys are about four points there But that's because the cowboys are like a top five team in the power rankings in that one I'm not sure if I put in there hand hand ranking them, but like I don't mind it like it. They're they're kind of fun But even there it does it does like the packer still relative to this spread. So I'm on board with you on that one. Um, I I have not done it and I don't think I will but I I agree with what you're saying. I agree with the sentiment I just like I get the heebie jeebies and I wind up Being a little afraid. So i'm a scaredy cat. I think is the the true takeaway here at the packers But like I do think that the logic you're using is correct in This line is an overreaction to what we see in green bay Yeah, and I you know just Any given sunday, right? Like we can't we can't keep holding, you know the past Against these teams, especially in a in a fashion like this when they're when they're at home And you know and and really it's like I don't I don't know if I would As as bad as the season has gone for them and as bad as it's gone for erin rogers the two-time reigning MVP I'm not sure if i'm willing to bet on mike mccarthy over erin rogers at this point in the environment at lambo like Um, I just i'm not willing to go there yet. Yeah, that's that's fair. Uh, it's a good point as well Mike mccarthy is still mike mccarthy still lurking down in there despite uh, some good showings the past couple of weeks All right, that is all that we have here for week number 10 On covering the spread at least from the sides and total side of thing We'll come back tomorrow talk some player props with the jj. Zachary's and getting his read on if this week's bets Some touchdown bets some yardage bets and get his read on those but ryan before we talk to him I got to say thank you to you for swinging by breaking down your favorite bets. Uh, stay warm I guess this weekend apparently up in milwaukee and uh, good luck with your bets Oh, thanks a lot jim. Good luck to you. Yeah, we'll be uh We'll be huddled up in the park a whole week a lot But uh, good luck to everybody out there and jim. I'll catch you next time Are you going down to chicago for the bears game this week or no? Uh, I am we are not no the the tickets actually sold for for a pretty decent price for what the what the bears are playing right now So right now, it might be it might be cash cow season as we get into uh, November and december uh with the with the little kiddo on the way as well too. I got to be cautious about Well, you can use the dollar bills as like as insulation to to keep yourself warm in milwaukee for this weekend. That is good Alrighty, ryan. Have a good weekend You too, man. You too. Have a good one All right, you can find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at jim sonnis a j i m s a n n e s I'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some player props for week number 10 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network