 Okay, welcome back to Think Tech. I'm Jay Fidel. It's a two o'clock block and we're talking about global connections now with Basel Chattery He has an expert in the Middle East that has written several books about it not only nonfiction but fiction and We're gonna today. We're gonna work with him in comparing abandonment the concept of abandonment by the United States first in Syria with the Kurds in October of 2019 And now all the trouble in Afghanistan. Welcome to the show Basel. Nice to see you. Thank you, Jay. Very nice to be back. So tell me about your teaching and your writing And where it takes you these days and an ever more complicated arrangement in the Middle East and in Central Asia Well, I've been teaching at Bay Atlantic University for some time in Washington, DC Um, that's where I teach as a professor for the undergraduate and graduate level My writing, um, I started out in nonfiction primarily focusing on the history of Iran and moving over to What we saw in the JCPOA deal Which I had hoped would create and shape Some of the more positive elements in the Middle East But soon after because of the disappointment that or what it led to I I went into fiction hoping that I could possibly create and shape some stories in that space to attract first mostly my graduate students to get more into the subject And also to satisfy something that I had long put in place and something now I'm beginning to enjoy Great, we all want to do that But you know nonfiction has a role in all of this and as you say it attracts people It interests them it gets them to study the subject You know on a doc on a documentary basis too So let's talk about, uh, you know the concept of abandonment and what happened in Syria in October, uh, of 2019 First and and then we'll make a comparison against the abandonment that the president biden is being criticized for now What happened in october of 2019? Well in october of 2019 You basically had the trump administration Making the case that they will withdraw about 2000 troops 2000 american troops that were based in Syria at the time As a way to bring back the troops home and saw no positive No positive choice When it came to Syria, um, Syria at the time were pretty much I think things have gotten a lot better, but The issues still remain As it as it was back then, uh, I think the the russian and the iranian influence was a concern It continues to be so There is concern in how the northern part of syria is panning out particularly with The kind of diplomatic deals the russians Had orchestrated and sometimes they see a lapse in the breakdown of it But they're quicker reshape it and work along the lines to at least maintain the status quo which is to say that Uh, the best and the most expensive part of Oh, the best and the most expensive part of real estate in syria is now occupied by the american allies i.e. the birds Um, they have been able to hold on to what we called rokova um, and they've been able to do so primarily not because of their alliance with the united states also that has played a part But more so with their relationships on the ground they've had to make some deals with With the iranian militias on the ground the russian forces on the ground as well as to some extent To the leadership of the basque But what was uh, well, I remember that um, trump was bad was criticized um sharply criticized in the last days of october after he did that and into november 2019 for abandoning the Kurds and from if i'm making if i'm making that decision Without really getting consultation from congress And um, you know, ultimately, uh, the currents went over to syria Uh, and russia had an advantage an opportunistic advantage um, uh, it was all for the benefit of, uh The turkey turkey tyap urdogan Who probably imposed his uh, his arguments on on trump, you know trump likes people who are Right-wing authoritarians and he was even he listened to urdogan And gave urdogan a a present Namely the Kurds, you know, I don't think he necessarily Saw that as a present to urdogan. I think much to what I mean not much has been spent said positively about particularly in the western space on urdogan, but I think In in reality, he had to understand That there were consequences in the southern border, you know, the southern border is basically uh A bastion of entry points. I think there's roughly about seven entry points from syria into turkey And they've been vastly used by refugees fleeing the fighting primarily in idling problems and the problem over there Especially for turkey was that you cannot accommodate Large volumes of refugees, especially when they're just pouring in um, and also taxing your state resources which in itself At a time of pandemic now we are realizing it is it is is a huge thing A huge burden of some sort and so I think What the turkish president was trying to do Was really safeguard his borders that really trying to safeguard Primarily to make sure that there is a At least a no conflict area in the south of its border. Um, I don't think trump saw it that way I think trump just saw it in the sense that This would be a way to bring back troops home over a war that was not reaching a conclusion Yeah, stop to stop the the endless wars the endless involvement in wars in the middle east And that's what he said and I he felt I think that that his base would like to hear that Let's get out of other people's wars And unfortunately, uh, he did it summarily he did it quickly did it without consultation And without thinking through what would happen and and the great tragedy was the abandonment of the Kurds Who had fought with the us who had been a noble ally with the us who had given us An advantage there and all of a sudden they were abandoned left to drift Without without friends so to speak so they made friends among the syrians which were Enemies of the united states and probably still are And so that you know that was troubling Also, as I recall a fossil that was a release of prisoners at the time Trump Trump let that happen and and some hundreds of thousands of isis prisoners were let go And back on the street, wouldn't it? Well, I mean I can't speak too much about that because unfortunately I didn't cover that part of the story, but what I do remember specifically at that episode is that Look, I mean for instance, Syria was this open space it had gone into this this a result of our spring to Basically chaos and the government in Damascus was just illiquid to manage the crisis part of that crisis what I remember most most well was that It came from the drought in the countryside which forced the population to look for employment into the cities and the cities were already Overstretched and that gave a huge problem to the the government of Damascus which in itself Was fighting In some capacity of sanctions of sorts because they were Basically in a kind of quasi-war against Israel They were kind of caught up in the middle between something where they were trying to develop some kind of safeguard between the borders with What they had established with Lebanon? Lebanon was a problem So there were a lot of problems that the regime had That was ongoing And the issue of the air spring air spring and the revolution that followed and apparently the population just wanted Better employment better form of living the cheaper electricity cheaper gas some of it could have been mitigated but Damascus and primarily the Assad regime responded pretty violently to squash this This protest and unfortunately This is what happened when you know, you have like fragments of the army basically revolting Creating their own kind of groups to fight the regime and and so for the united states I think what was mostly important was that when you see images of barrel bombs Dropped on population and these are very disastrous barrel bombs that the regime used in all the outside areas Destroying land destroying homes primarily a hospital. I mean, this is a concern And I think the the intent was right to send forces to do something but what that scope was was not well defined and That is where I think I have questions in terms of like, you know I mean if if the if there was no direct Defined scope in understanding what American forces were going to do with Syria then surely Pull them out Well, you know, it's a it's a parallel universe here You can make that decision Geopolitical basis But you have to do it in such a way so that you don't leave A mess which you don't leave it worse than it was You don't leave chaos and he was criticized in november of 2019 for doing just that And then he reversed himself and I remember there's really extraordinary photographs of american troops leaving syria And on the same road American troops coming back into syria Two-way traffic Now that is chaos I don't know how it ended up, but you know, he was minimally criticized for abandoning the Kurds and leaving a mess I think that's one of the problems with this these kind of situations because if you don't have a very defined place a defined mission place and then you take a decision Pretty much not knowing what the environment is Um, you will come across to these kind of problems where at one day you will say let's pull out and the other day You say no wait, it's too costly. It it's too costly geopolitically because there are other players in in the environment and those players were very much present, you know russia today, you know, they've been very present very Active in their in the northern part of syria iran-backed militias That are also operating between iraq Are also very much president the southern part of syria um, and so when you When you have to study these considerations, I don't think I don't think the president would have made those kind of Kind of measures because ultimately, you know, you could see on both sides what happened They pulled it out the other players would step in but if you remain There remained a question on what was the reason you would keep the troops there for Well, it's it's easy. It's hard to it's not easy It's hard to to thread the needle on that the sort of thing you have to stay between those those two disastrous possibilities Um, and what you know what I find interesting is that all the other players in the area that you named Uh, they don't wish the united states well Uh, they would like to see the united states embarrassed They'd like to bring it down bring it low Um and criticize it. I mean, you know, russia would only love to see the united states embarrassed the same thing with iran um, and certainly, um, you know, what's happening now Leaves other countries to see the united states embarrassed And it is being embarrassed So I like to I like to visit with you on the afghan On the afghanistan issue um strikes me that Just as in the syrian abandonment the abandonment started a long time ago The abandon was set in motion during the trump years Maybe around the same time when he was, um, you know extolling the virtues of getting out Um, you know, no more endless wars sort of thing But but he didn't have the skill and his his administration didn't have the skill to find that balance about getting out without leaving a mess um, and um, so I suggest to you that his abandonment policy actually began Hmm, probably close to that and then he made this agreement with the the taliban That was a giveaway agreement the same sort of, uh, you know, uh The same sort of fact it was immediacy That he applied in in syria with the Kurds And so we had an agreement which was useless for the united states, but it made him look like he was getting out What's your recollection of that? well, I mean I You know, I had studied on this quite a bit and I remember quite specifically that There was a huge push to get out during the obama there was the round of talks with Carzai's government that you know, there should be a time when American forces should fall out But there was resistance to that particularly with the leadership in Afghanistan Because it's fragile. It was I mean, I like to argue it was always very flat fragile but more particularly more so fragile particularly after the election of ashraf dami because there were particularly a lot of Accusations of voter fraud that there were accusations that this was not legitimate government and and What made it even worse? I suspect is that As you went to do the Greek with the Taliban in 2020 with the doha a year before that There have been huge Push from american forces to secure areas that were believed to be Primarily for us that how about areas Now the problem here is that, you know, as you are conducting an agreement with the Taliban through the doha There's nothing set in stone or in place and the other issue is that the the afghan government based couple Is not in attendance to the cigarette And so whatever deal you strike with the Taliban Um, somehow you will have to figure out a way to basically pull in The government in Kabul and so all that while all this is going on There's a resurgence from the Taliban at the ground level in this in 2020 Um, which basically was the capitalist to lay the groundwork to what we see Just a couple days ago in their smooth sailing in the Kabul Yeah, so um This is it strikes me that that we were trying to get out of afghanistan for a while We were, you know setting these dates. I always wonder by the way About setting dates and then announcing them to the world About exactly what your plan is Especially in the middle east where people would be opportunistic about that and they will fashion their own plan around your plan And you you know, you silly fellow. You told me everything I needed to know now. I'm going to hoist you Based on what you announced, but this is going on a long time Yeah, I mean there has been a lot of education say that, you know, I mean, you know, we've why there was a lot of criticism behind The date set for leaving. Um, why was it pronounced in the way that it was? um I personally think that president Biden did a fantastic job in in making a policy to withdraw from afghanistan the problem here is that You know, I mean, you don't want to get out of afghanistan during fighting Uh, which is what we are in right now the fighting stops in afghanistan during winter Perhaps it would have been best if the pull-out would have happened sometime in the winter But you know to to Some the some semblance and into some relief um, you haven't seen that kind of a outlaw of refugees Particularly in the pakistan border crossing or in the iran border crossing I mean, you have seen a lot of problems in the airports the images that we've seen Um, you know, they were horrific, you know, uh, it's it's not something you would like to see Particularly at a very difficult time like this But on another front, um, the border areas have remained quiet. I mean Kabul is going back to normal but There is a eerie feeling from the reports I get from people that I know I have students in Kabul Who I know whom I've taught and I worry for their safety because of all this Well, do you take the uh, Taliban seriously when they say they're they're going to be Reasonable, they're not going to round up people who work with the americans. They're not going to You know, uh, impose Stringent requirements on women and children and girls Um, you take them seriously or are they just saying that because they would like to improve their relationship And thus their uh access to money around the country It's difficult to say it's way too early, but but there are some things that That cautions me About them, but there are also things that that tells me that, you know, this time There's hope that something would be different because Because from what I understand and And this is kind of like in a in a larger context is that the new generation of Afghan fighters are much more aggressive And belligerent than the ones that were in the past That's very interesting. You mean the Taliban now Yeah, the the Taliban now are much. I mean the new generation anyway But at the same time they've learned a lot, you know, they're part of the social media generation. They have They are they are experienced in A high-tech gadgetry their experience those experienced mobile phone networks they're They're savvy they're technologically savvy if they are That also means that they understand that the consequences Of going back to what they did in the past or what the group did in the past Will not be taken lightly Um, and so it is to their benefit if they can find some kind of legitimacy with players on the ground by russian by iranian i even from pakistan Um, and also there's been reports that they have access to money from saudi arabia and the emirates They have to raise money. We cannot run the country without money Their funds that were held in the united states have been locked up. I I think the same goes for the eu Um, the result is that to find new sources of money right away In order to run the country because they have control of it They need I mean that very well might be true. That very well might be true But like, you know, think about it. Like, you know, you've taken over You've taken over a country you need to basically win the hearts of minds of this country first before you actually work um For a long time now, I think The talban has conducted itself to have a very Very specific campaign to at least get Uh, the countryside or the surrounding areas at the major cities outside of the world to their To their side and they've done so by mainly convincing the population to end this war um, you know, I mean the afghan population Even before what we've seen Like in the last week or what the week before They've been fed up with the wars that has been going on. There's been bombings in the countryside. They've been like, you know Like conflicts between The afghan army and uh, and al-qaeda and even other groups and I think They just wanted an end to this and the only way but they're also clearly terrified of the taliban I mean, the reports are consistent and they're trying to get out of the country. So Yeah, go ahead There is a consensus that not every group is for talban, but they I suspect a lot of the population just wanted an end to the war And they saw the fact that if they did side with talban, maybe that would give them some semblance of No conflict um, because certainly there are reports saying that there are populations that Simply did not Cross the government and couple they did not consider the couple the couple government to be effective particularly with the problems with poverty problems with employment problems with getting farmers just basic jurors Basic laws and rights um, and that is just a basic rule of law, which the power of the u.s had plenty of involvement in Trying to make Afghanistan a better place. I mean the rights of women for example um, the army for whatever good or no good it was um, and you know, the u.s was laying money all over afghanistan for 20 years And the u.s was a sort of a benign force um, you know rule of law consistency all that we you know, we don't like violence particularly we don't like You know atrocities So I think I think a fair amount of the number of people Who try to get out and hanging on the bottom of of a military planes People who are leaving for other places if they can trying to get out of the country They're terrified of the withdrawal of that and and that takes me to the point of about of abandonment So You know number one it seems clear that the people in afghanistan were a good number of them Especially the ones who were somehow dependent on working with the americans Feel they've been abandoned and the world the world takes that the world is generally responding Uh favorably, I mean resonating with the notion that again here United states abandon the people who were helping it its agents and friends And my question to you is You know how how how pervasive is that thought around afghanistan? And how uh, what kind of implication does it yield? on a global basis Well, I mean I can't speak for every f dot out there I'm sure like, you know, there there's several rounds of beliefs and emotions circulating around that question but One thing I do like to mention is the fact that You know, I mean It is the afghan government that has the responsibility to take care of the number one and the united states can only assist And after some time when the recommendation has been that some practices needs to be stopped i.e corruption in the government i.e Not getting proper funding to several sectors of the government One of the reasons why the army fell like the way it did is not because we have not trained well what Not because we've not trained well, but because of the fact that they were not getting proper pay Or food or rations for the last few months or so and that is not the responsibility of the united states That is the responsibility of the government in Kabul and so When you take that all in I'm sure many afghan Are as frustrated with their government in Kabul just as they are frustrated with the fact that now there's no safe part with the fact that The united states is who is drawing Now you can say it's about Yes, but for for those of us like myself who are observing this miles away I say that the fault lies in really making sure that the government in Kabul Was not well equipped was not Equipped enough to understand what was going to happen despite several warnings From the obama administration from the government administration to say you need to get your house in order Which i'm pretty sure they did What about the people who claim the united states abandoned them? Is uh, you know that is there are hundreds of thousands that feel that way and Through the more a lot of people in this country feel that way Including a lot of military people who have served in afghanistan and dealt You know face-to-face they've been engaged with the afghani people And and they are very sympathetic to the afghani terror now Oh, you know the the afghans who worry about what's going to happen under the telemark And you know and then there are people around the world that resonate, you know that sympathize with that empathize with that and and so you know there's a general reaction about abandonment Such as we abandon the currents the same thing and so my my concern is um, you know, where does this take Us and them in the world and america's place in the global order If we keep getting a reputation for abandoning the people We've helped I mean we've helped us we've helped us. I mean, yes, there is I mean, I I see there's a moral responsibility to Help those who help us um But at the same time this Presence in afghanistan Like i mentioned to you in syria did not have a defined goal If we were there to protect The government and couple you would be protecting a government and couple that was largely out of touch Well, would you whatever we did we did it with the help of these people by definition they helped us Um, you know, maybe maybe it was opportunistic on their part But that's what they did and they and they took a certain risk over it So the question is whether you would bring them back How much effort and money would you would you put in to bring them back and How how much um, how how soon should we have started bringing them back? I mean this would have had to be a long drawn up plan. I mean, I'm certainly not An architect of policy, but I can certainly say that in the form of planning um if if there was a A seriousness to bring those that assisted us over the last 20 years to some form of safe to some form of Way to make sure their families are safe. They are safe and even provide them the kind of uh visas To help them be secured. I'm sure this should have been a long Drawn out plan that should not have been At this point where now they're basically strength Um, if there was a defined policy on that, you know, that should have been implemented years ago not now So it's late. It's late. But here we are And we're we're almost at a kind of deadline at the end of the month But we we all know there's not that much time before the The red sea will close over this evacuation The diplomats will be out of there. There'll be hundreds of thousands of people who would like to be out of there Um, there's not a lot of time not a lot of resources not a lot of options To get them out of there. What would you do now? Would you would you? What would you do? This is not a you know from a Humane a moral point of view. What would you do and and last question on top of that phasal is What will happen to them if we don't do anything? I mean You know, this goes back to You know, I mean like How do we How do we how do we make sure our allies are set? and the reality is that our allies just like us have self-interest And those self-interest sometimes combine well to an achievable goal and other times they they they remain different and continue to be growing apart and What has happened in Afghanistan? I suspect is that as we've had allies We've also had differences within our allies And yes, there's we are at a point now where We are trying to evacuate those that are Are those that have helped us in the last one years? We are they're now trying to evacuate families of those who try to help us out in the last 20 years, but It's come at a time when we don't know a lot of things of what is going to happen We obviously need to build some kind of a channel With the power bond to make sure these things can happen and can happen in a very systematic or totally matter without any kind of violence particularly from some particularly from how they have conducted before 2001 but but now A serious channel needs to develop between the capitals in paris to london to washington dc to to from delhi From from sit from canberra All towards a regime now that says that okay, we are the true representatives of this state now the problem here is this There is an opposing government right now. Okay. Uh, there is an opposing government in afghanistan that is led by amrullah sale the former first vice president and the son of amr shah masu And it is They have control of what we consider seven districts Which is still not covered by the power bond. So unless a a viable and a and a and a well formed and well Meaning election takes place in afghanistan where there is some kind of legitimacy to say that these are The new representatives and these are the new elective Yeah, that's a really good point The leadership has not yet been established. We don't know who to talk to That's another guy ab abdul-bar asada by barata Who was just brought back in he was uh Involved in afghanistan government a long time ago and there are those who want to see him as the leader So it's not clear. They do need to have an election And uh, you know, the problem is that sometimes elections take a long time to get organized Sometimes they're not fair. Sometimes they're violent. Sometimes people do not accept the result of the votes So it's a long way to go before things settle down So the people who would like to get out Um, may or may not be able to get out as you said it's it's too early to know But you know, we don't have a lot of time though in in the context of what the taliban will do Over the next few days or weeks before august 31 And so my last question to you fuzzle is what do we say to them? What what are you know speaking for the united states? What do we say to those people? You know who who desperately want to leave? What do we say? I mean, I honestly got a spoke with the person for any government that I've never had been and I've known a lot of the full lengths of the course of the time That I've been in my profession Um, I honestly can't speak to that. Uh, you know history has shown us that uh, We The allies are allies and like all allies As I said, um, there are There are There's a timeline to these relations um And what I want to emphasize also is the fact that It may not be as bad as we think You know, I'm not saying I'm not guaranteeing that but I I'd like to emphasize this because Because the group that is now In couple the the leadership In couple right now They may have links to their path. They may have links to to Awful practice i.e. not giving rights to them i.e not allowing certain kinds of music to be played where there was previously A kind of like a nightlife in couple where they used to enjoy but I do like to emphasize this is that in the last two years you've had a very vibrant afghan population Afghanistan is a population of roughly 38 years It is a young country. I think the average age is roughly around 19 And I don't think in this day and age any kind of new or Or upcoming leader of afghanistan is willing to risk with The practices an entire or majority of a generation of of a country has been accustomed to and reverse it And reverse it in the most violent matter to the point where they believe that this is the rightful thing They may very well do it, but they run it at the cost of overwhelming opposition Whether it's in the ballot box Whether it's by the gun or whether it's by the surrounding areas that they're They're I mean what I mean by surrounding areas. I mean primarily the countries that surround afghanistan is a landlocked It cannot survive on itself. It has to figure out a way how to have a viable relationship with countries like iwan pakistan tajikistan usbekistan And most importantly russia and china If they do conduct the kind of practices that they have in the past I'm very sure there will be a reaction a reaction they themselves cannot afford to have particularly in this day and age All right Very interesting fazl. Thank you for your perspective on these things really appreciate you coming around I hope we can do this again because I know there'll be more to come. I know that to the bottom of my heart Thank you fazl chowdery From new york new york Thank you for joining us today. Aloha