 Welcome, Traders, to Tick Mill's weekly market outlook with me, Patrick Munnerley. For week-emend seeing, 26th of April in the US, the week-hand is a busy one. It should encompass what should be a very strong first quarter 21 US GDP growth, perhaps as high as 7% quarter-on-quarter annualized, but a fair still position very dovishly at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Wednesday, we'll also see Joe Biden's first speech to a joint session of Congress, where we might hear more about his plans to raise taxes, including doubling the capital gains tax for those earning over $1 million per annum. It is also a big week for first-quarter tech earnings, a sector perhaps most exposed to a capital gains tax hike after enjoying sterile actual returns over the past year on balance. I think the dollar is going to edge lower at the stars of the week, especially where speculation over tax hikes take some steam out of the US overheating debate in the second quarter. Also, look for second-tier US data in the form of March DGOs, April consumer confidence, and the March Corp PCE deflator, expected to jump 1.8% year-on-year from 1.4%. Month-embrie balancing flows may also move against the dollar this week, since both the US equity and bond benchmarks have outperformed in April. So from a technical perspective, as discussed in the weekly analysis, I'm looking for another leg lower in the dollar into the month-end, and I'm looking for the dollar to test this 90-25, ascending trendline support, a third test, because as I mentioned in Thursday's session, 90% of the time, the period from the 1st of May to the 28th of May has tended to be positive from the dollar over the past 10 years. So if we get into this 90-20 zone, watch the bullish reversal having set long positions, looking for at least a three-way of corrective move back into the 92-43 area. However, if we don't hold the trendline support and the dollar leaks lower, then I'd be looking for the dollar to test back into the 89-65, and potentially then take out the prior cycle lows at 89-22, and then we can look at the potential that we have a wave four high in place, and then we would start to look at a pattern to trade a wave five to the downside. But first board of call is going to be watching this 90-30 test and see if we can get a correction first. The week ahead in the Eurozone also sees 1st quarter 21 GDP. This is widely expected to contract and signal a second technical recession within a year. But this is old news, however. Instead, Eurozone confidence is picking up sharply as evidenced in Friday's flash April PMI release and should be echoed in Monday's German EFO readings. We also get our first look at April Eurozone inflation expected to jump 1.6% year over year from 1.3% on base effects. The rise in inflation should shed a little more light on the European Central Bank debates ahead of the June meeting, where the hawks have wanted to see tapering of more aggressive weekly pet purchases. Indeed, there were moments over the last week where the Euro rates market were getting excited about tighter ECB policy. We'll also see a whole array of ECB speakers over the next week. You should expect more focus on EU national spending plans than the Kalashula constitutional court has allowed the ratification of the EU fiscal stimulus power to proceed. Also, keep a look out for any fresh journal opinion polls where it looks like further gains for the Greens would be treated with a positive reaction from the markets. From a technical perspective, as with the dollar index, the Euro is about to test its monthly range resistance and the descending trendline resistance. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns that are in around 121.20 for short positions to initially target a corrective move back to test 1950 as support. If we don't see any resistance at the 21.25 area, then look for prices to extend up into the 22.39 before we likely see a corrective move to ensue. Dolly Yen downside has surprised market participants as it picks up steam, even though the decline in US yields to stabilizing global equity markets remain not too far from their highs, especially with Friday's close. It's really hard to make sense for Dolly Yen at the moment. The weaker headsees are focused on Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting. The first is its strategy changed to more flexible asset purchases. In reality, the declining global yields and JTB yields means the BOJ has not had to be too active here. The BOJ meeting will also see the release of its outlook report and a possible upward revision to growth forecast despite Japan's current battle with Covid. As an aside, the BOJ in conjunction with other central banks on Friday agreed to discontinue the 84-day dollar swap with the Fed, a welcome recognition that US dollar funding markets have returned to normality. From a technical perspective, Dolly Yen has put in a test of this 107.50 trend line support. I'm watching, we've got a nice reaction, didn't flip the charts bullish as per the five-period VWAP, but let's see if we can consolidate or get some follow-through into the early part of the week and there's an opportunity to set long positions, I think, to at least test back into this 109.30 area. If we take out the trend line support, then look for prices to extend lower to test monthly range support down to 106.30. This week's data flow out of the UK was once again supported for sterling. Strong retail sales, good PMIs, inflation rising, although slightly below expectations, and unemployment edging lower all endorsed the strong recovery narrative in the country. The data calendar next week is instead very quiet and no Bank of England officials are scheduled to speak. With Covid-19 cases rising again across the world and the UK having recently relaxed containment measures, income and contagion hospitalization data in the UK will be key to test the effectiveness of the country's vaccination program and ultimately drive expectations about the economic recovery. So from a technical perspective, sterling has pulled back into the support area, the monthly pivot here 138, and we've got a bullish reversal on Friday. Again, it didn't quite eclipse the five-period VWAP as a confirmation, but we'll see if we can consolidate into the early part of the week. That should set up another retest of 140 where I'd expect to see resistance again in a range trade environment for now. However, if we do take out this 137.85 support, look for a move to test range support back down to 136.64. And lastly, in Australia, the China-Australian relations are back in focus, as it's once again no good news for the Aussie dollar. The decision by the Australian government to scrap the Belt and Road Initiative that would have allowed increased presence of Chinese company in Victoria's infrastructure projects is another worrying signal that the diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries are still fragile. The main risk for the Aussies that China retaliates in the coming days by hitting Australian exports again. A new lockdown in Perth on the back of rising virus numbers may also cause some short-term headlines. At the same time, there are a few factors offering support to the currency. Iron ore prices have remained supportive after a long rally and regardless of the cruise up and downs, dollar has remained pressured and China's data flows will be supported so far. On the latter, Friday's PMIs out of China may drive a reaction to the China-sensitive currencies. Earlier in the week, Australia's CPI for the first quarter will be in focus, consensus, expectations, offer headline inflation to 1.4 from 0.9 cents. The bar set by the Reserve Bank of Australia with its inflation target is 2.5 percent. The only signs of inflation recovery more than expected may cast some doubt on how on the RBA's ultra-dubbish tone can reasonably last. From a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar been trading within a relatively tight range here. Look for any pop up into the 7810 to 7820 area to find resistance as we look to retest range support at the moment back to 7670. If we take out the high here at 7821, then I'd be looking for symmetry swing resistance back into the old highs here at the 80 level. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 26th of April. As always, traders be sure to join me on Thursday for live market analysis where I cover over 20 charts in real time looking at actionable setups for the days ahead. Okay, traders, as always, have a great week. Thanks very much.