 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me David badden today's date is monday of the 11th of November 2019 and the time is just gone just gone 1140 GMT and It's been a fairly negative start to the European trend session I was seeing equities here in the UK and over in mainland Europe All push push lower on the day. There's a number of things going on. The big story is is there's been renewed concerns about the The kind of unrest that we've seen in Hong Kong after markets in Asia lost a lot of ground overnight We've seen a particular fortunately a particular uptake increase Regular increase uptake in the in the kind of unrest and violence witness on streets of Hong Kong That's obviously weighing on market sentiment in that part of the world as is a slightly kind of Cooling in relation to US China trade relations at the back of the last week things are looking quite positive. There was talked up When if when China the US side in the phase one of the trade agreement next month, there was talk That both sides were looking to reverse the tariffs that were imposed It's a timber now. We are involved back in the back in the Friday and also today We will begin we've heard that that may not necessarily be the case President Trump said, you know He didn't agree to a full rollback, but he kind of left the door open to a partial rollback Also weekend President Trump reiterated the old you that the China wanted what a deal much more badly than he does And he's he's willing to do a deal, but only if it's the right year for the US So it's a kind of alliance. He's he's rolled off before And it just nonetheless gives the impression that he's not Exceptionally eager to strike a deal as soon as possible There's always been a lot of two and throwing with this She's this situation given the fact that we saw record highs in the US indices last week Accidentment around where it was very bullish last week set a major surprise We've now seen a slight kind of cooling in the relationship between the US and China And then in turn that's added to the kind of push to the downside in stocks Also this morning from the terms of UK economic reports The UK preliminary third quarter GDP numbers came in at 0.3% Which is an improvement on the on the decline of 0.2% posted in the second quarter, but keep mind economy's worth but it increases 0.4% so Slightly cooler than expected, but at least the UK avoided a technical recession, which is most which is the most important thing So they're the kind of big headlines of actually what we begin seeing This this trend day on Monday. I'll take a quick look now at the weekend article And then we move on to some individual markets So the weekend article can be found on a website if you go to see if the markets calm and under insights You'll put on a new analysis. You'll find the article So looking head to tomorrow. We have UK employment and average earnings we have first quarter figures from Jenny with the spoon on Wednesday, which I apologize, which is on third which is on Wednesday also Wednesday We have first quarter figures from Cisco systems on Thursday. We have a number of reports out of China industrial production and retail sales On Thursday, we've third quarter figures from Germany GDP That's gonna be close to watch seeing as Germany's gonna this talk that Germany is teaching a recession That's gonna be close to watch on Thursday We have first-high figures from Burberry here in the UK and on Thursday We have third quarter figures from Nvidia, which are who are listed over in the US So as I mentioned, if you see the sell-off in the global equity markets, and the footsie has been particularly particularly hurt this morning a combination of heavy expo heavy weightings on the same HSBC and potential a big big exposure it on puts with hundreds They're weight weighing on the market as is the UK about puts you 100 has a pretty sizable Representation of oil and gas and mining companies, which are under pressure today So we can see here that for a month 200 has been pressing higher. In fact only last week We hit a level last seen since early October, but the last couple days particularly today We've had a fairly move pretty seismic move to the downside We're pretty much hovering in around the truly moving average this red line here This blue line here is a fitting movie average So we had a pretty sizable movie the downside But if you hold above this blue line here the fifth movie average, which comes to play at 72 79 I would just south of them all, but if you can get back above it and hold above it It's likely we could see the kind of muddle on upward move continue And if that is the case if you're trying to press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the early November highs. I think I'll be on that. We could be looking at toward this zone here The highs of early of late September in around 7440 there they're about up to this line here this area of previous sport in around 7470 so if the wider trend does continue keep an eye for 7,400 they'll up to kind of 7470 zone up around here If in the other hand if market does continue to press on lower from here However, besides the break below the fifth of the movie average that potentially could become new resistance Connected at previously a support and if you press on lower from here We could have a back down toward the 7200 zone that area we saw a fair bit of consolidation in that area in Tra on October so the possibility of that area could act as support to any further downsides Take a look at what's going on over in Germany in the Dax so the back in the last week That was in quite good shape at the back in the last week the Dax at level last seen Last seen since January 2018 so giving the indication of how strong the Dax and the Dax was Back last week, so the market's been in very much of our trend All things considered given how much ground the market has moved to the upside in early October And that I say five or five or six weeks the market hasn't really moved a whole lot lower in the last couple of sessions So the upper trend is very much intact. So if we do manage to kind of press on higher from here We could be looking at a pressing on that target targeting around say 13,600 Over the kill if you know a kind of medium-term view should be going to continue to press on higher from here But given you know, we've had a bit of uncertainty what's going on Over in the Far East and also it's going on between the US and China I would be surprised if we have a bit of a drift north in the near term of the downside Continuation of you know, recent sell-off. I should that be the case We could head back down toward the psychology potent 13,000 mark or this area here in 12,000 980 circular the zone was a 30,000 980 could potentially act to support sure we lose further ground from here And even if you do you have a fairly decent break below that We could be like head toward this area here in around 12,800 and if you go below that you can be head back down towards this over here down around 12,660 and to be honest Given how much market moved to the upside since mid-August At the last few months, it's only really if you go below this line here this blue line here the fifth movie average 12,520 so really go below that could then we get the kind of become a bit scary I think as you know, what maybe it's full of trend over the last few months as they come to an end That's what's going on in Europe things are in better shape in the US as I mentioned, you know It's very strong with record highs over the US last week so we can see that we've seen a bit of a bit of a loss but across on Friday It's a bit of ground on the dark futures today We're still looking into get a very much up for trend I respect that our jobs open in around 27,560 at the moment if you can continue the press I'm higher from here I should have wider up for a trend continue We could be looking at retesting last week's highs in around 27,000 27,775 there thereabouts and if you go beyond that you know turns looking towards 27,800 900 and the psychology important 28,000 itself If you do manage to drift a bit lower from here, I would by possible given that Sentiment appears to be a bit sour. I would have that a decent You know moving kind of retracement in a while support could be found from this zone here in around 27,400 or potentially down toward this area here 27,000 So these are the areas potentially we could see some buyers enter the fold And if you do have a fairly decent pullback Support group found from this blue line here the fifth movie average I would also kind of coincide the late October low And that comes to play in around 26,924 Take a look at what's going on with the S&P 500 It's a fairly similar situation to be honest with I only the back end the last week We have fresh record highs you come back ever so slightly off those levels We're currently speculating the S&P 500 to open 3081 so after wide record track continues, we could be looking at tackling 3090 and then beyond that 3100 And he moves to the downside could find some support from this area here in around 2000 sorry 3066 there thereabouts and even if you go below that you could be looking any back down toward this zone 3040 to 3025 second a 15 point zone might ask active support Should he move lower and even if you get even if you go below that the kind of psychological important 3000 area an area which we saw a bit of Resistance and support and consolidation all around the kind of late October period So keep on for those areas should we see a fairly moved to the downside? But you know the overall upper trend is very much attacked I'll take a look now at some of the major currencies starting off with the euro versus the US dollar So the wider view has been very much to the downside in the euro dollar But we did have a fairly decent rally our correction between early October and Late October, but it would appear at the market You know highs of early November really failed to take out the highs of mid October Now the markets began to kind of turn lower on itself or back below the 50 movie average So this could be a beginning Because this could be the sign that The markets moving lower is a steady increase in negative momentum on an active histogram back to indicator This could be the side, you know what we've had the video Then you know the the medium term pullback But it could be a sign that they can a wider negative trend on your dollar is coming back at the force So we could be looking at a back down towards the one spot ten area I should we have a decent size and move below that It could then be looking at retesting the early October lows in it just in south of one spot Oh nine. We really want to be going to take an out This area here Just north busy busy combination, which is a mixture of the kind of early November highs We'd also the highs of mid October in around the kind of one spot 1170 once about 1175 area in around here We'd really need to be taking those levels out before we could then think you know what The kind of the upper trend from early October is actually in play And if you go black beyond that you can look at it towards 112 and move beyond beyond 112 Could put the early August high in a one spot 12 49 back into play I took a look at the pound versus the US dollar so between From early September onwards, you've had a good remark of a move to the upside in the in the British pound versus the US dollar Only at the end of October we had a level last year in May So we had five month high in May. We've managed to kind of drift a bit lower But by and large, you know, we've held on to most of the ground that was gained in the last few months We're comfortable above this red line here the true they move me average So they so the outlook for a pound dollar is still quite positive So if you could continue this up for a trend that we're in we could make a retesting this area here in it Just north of 130 one spot 3012 and if you go beyond that you could make a testing this area here The early May high in at one spot 3178 If you do manage to drift to the downside support could be found from this red line here in a one in a one spot 27 one spot 27 05 and if you go beyond below that this is zone here in around one spot 26 might act as a support So I've been a consolidation market to give a bit of a breather there in the middle of October So it might act as support in the in the near term Moving on now to currencies. So last week on Back in the last week gold dropped to a three-month low Bit of it and moved up to the upside in the US dollar Also, you know given up strong stocks were traded were very much in risk on sentiment So it's a gold so for the small bit so we can see your Friday Gold took out the lows in Friday to bring up the lows of early October So I fell back to a level last seen in August. So We've been broadly speaking kind of moving to the downside on the gold market We're not she back below the water to move the average which comes in the play at 1477 So while we hold below that we could be looking at a seeing We could look at giving up further ground We could take a factor toward this zone here in a 1430 1440 down on this area here I thought it really to get it back about 1500 at the very least actually because they would be the begin to think you know what maybe we're actually gonna Continue on in kind of wider upper trend. That's been in play for many many months, but It would appear that I were kind of been eating lower on the gold market. So keep an eye out for 1430 1440 1430 I took like now what's going on on the all on the oil market starting off with Brent So the Draw low between the lows of early October and along here We get this trend line along here as you can see you've respected Respected that time on a number of occasions. So while we hold above it It's like the near-term upward trend is going to continue That is to be the case. We could be looking at retesting this red line here Which is the journey with the average and that comes to play in at 64 spot 83 And a movie on the on that could take us towards the zone here in at 65 spots 79 So if we do much, you're gonna drift a bit lower retest the trend line could take us back to in around Just north of $61 barrel in around kind of 61 spot 10 and even if you drop below that Support could be found from potentially from the psychology port in the area of 60 bucks per barrel So that is Brent finally take a look at WTI It's a fairly similar chart to be perfectly honest price action It's actually more bullish on WTI because WTI is actually further away from its respective trend line So we draw a low between because you know that the lows of early October and mid October we get this trend line here Notice how the market has been gonna Edging higher higher highs and higher lows along the way We're comfortable above the this this trend line here So if you can press on higher from here, we can really can retesting this zone here in around $58 a barrel And if you go beyond that you can really get targeting the psychology port in 60 bucks per barrel So it's only really have a decent movie the downside Support can be found from this blue line here 50 movie average, which comes to play at 55 spot 56 And even if you go below that you can really get any back down towards the trend line Would you come into play south of 54 somewhere in a region around 53 spot 75 there there abouts Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you for listening and please tune in next week Thank you very much