 recording live from the majestic offices at the Contrarian Trader Studios in Huntington, New York, where we trade the charts and not the hype. Welcome to our audio version of our MarketRap podcast. If you want the full video experience, please become a member. Why aren't you a member yet? 14-day free trial offer. Head over there, thecontrariantrader.com. Join up today. 14-day free trial offer. How can you beat that? Let's get started with MarketRap. Okay, folks. Welcome to MarketRap for November the 18th, 2020. Let's begin with the bond market, the TLG. We spoke about this last night. We're close to a breakout. We did ultimately breakout today. Volume rose, but still below average. The VIX, the volatility index, daily chart. We closed out the day at 23 spot 8-4 on the session, candlestick price action, huge bullish key reversal bar. The only negative is that we closed at a resistance level. Now we'll say this, we did add two short positions today. A bit more aggressively, we added short positions to the triple cues using the SQQQQ and we also opened up a short position on the small caps. I'm going to talk about why in a moment. And we used the TZA. These are leveraged ETFs, not for the faint of heart. Now the VIX, while it had a good day today, when you take a look at RSI, looks good. Higher lows, hooking back up. I don't like this. I don't like the lower high on ultimate oscillator. Maybe that's consolidating, could quite possibly be. Looking at the stokes, we're oversold. I think we're going to pop here, folks. And that will not bode well for the S&P 500. The chips moved higher today. No breakout yet on RSI. Stokes, as we mentioned for two days in a row, were for the most part outperforming price action. They have broken out. Price action still has yet to follow through. Volume rose, but still below average on the chips. For those not familiar, Treasury inflation protected securities. The dollar, daily chart, bullish key reversal on the day. We came very close to support at the 2486 mark. Volume was pretty much non-existent. Stokes probable W4Mation take note of the RSI. Let's update this. RSI, higher lows, watch for a possible breakout. Now what did not respond well at all today through the strength in the U.S. dollar was gold and the gold miners. I warned about a potential sell-off in the gold miners yesterday. So it pays. Let's watch these charts very close. Let's respect seasonality, the Dow transports, daily chart closed out the day at $12,384, bearish key reversal bar. In all probability, we're going to go lower. Is this a top? I don't know. I'm not that smart. Volume rose and certainly above yesterday's up volume bar. Stokes are probably going to come in. The question is, do we flatten out on this pullback and then proceed back up? Quite probably we will. I think that we probably will and it all goes back to seasonality. Nothing to do with fundamentals. The Dow Jones daily chart outside reversal day. We had a down day yesterday. We did manage to put in a new high today. It couldn't hold its mud. It undercut yesterday's lows in all probability. We're probably going to head down to $29,000 unless of course they gap it up tomorrow. But if we put in a new daily low, my guess is we're coming down to $29,000 on the Dow. Volume rose relative to yesterday's down volume bar, but still below average. The S&P 500, a down day. No follow through from Monday's rally. We close right at the lows of the day. Closing price action on the spiders, $356.25 down one and nearly a quarter percent. Volume unlike the Dow Jones dropped off versus yesterday's down volume, which is bullish or I should say not as bearish. Now the cues, here's a bear story. Anybody who knows me for any length of time knows I can't stand breakout point failures aka bull traps. What happened earlier in the week? We broke out again just like we did back here on November the 5th. Yesterday we retested just like we did back here on November the 6th. Today we broke down, closed down below support just like we did back here on November the 9th. That my friends is horrible price action, horrible price action. And that is why we added to our short of the triple cues. Volume was light but rose versus yesterday's, possible lower high on Stokes, the IWM, daily chart, bearish, controversial bar, new daily high, but we closed at the lows of the day, negative. We did open up a short position. Volume was below average. So we'll probably get a pullback here. I don't think that we're crashing. This is not going to be a mega bet on the markets falling apart. The banks, bearish, controversial bar. I'm probably going to book some profits here because you had a breakout in bonds and that means that yields are pushing lower. If the markets come under pressure with yields pushing lower, that will not bode well for the banks. So we have profits here. We're probably going to make them real as soon as tomorrow. Technology, no breakout, very weak today. The XLK closed at 120 spot 39, down about a percentage point, lower highs on the Stokes and lower highs on price. Volume light, consumer discretionary, daily chart, a bearish, controversial bar today. We managed to put in a new daily high, but we were rejected. So we have the potential here of a lower high. Volume was light though and we dropped off below yesterday's down volume. So no real institutional distribution here. Energy. Okay. So energy was one of a couple of trades that we placed today. One was a short that I talked about last night on CPS. That was a short trade. The other trade was with ExxonMobil. We booked to have profits. We had a sizable position in that trade. We had a big, big profit. I wanted to make some of that real. We made it through the ex-dividend date. So there do me a profit. I mean, I should say, I already have a profit, a dividend, 10 spot, 2% baby, 88 cents a share or 87 cents a share. So today on energy, a breakout point failure makes me very sad to say breakout point failure. We broke out yesterday, today, we broke down. Is it all over for energy? Folks, if they keep shutting down all the major economies in the West, you bet ya, volume was quite high. So you know, we became extended on energy. Some profit taking was certainly not unwarranted. I wanted to book some profits. I had a very heavy position. We closed out the day at 35 spot 42, down 2.91% on the day. We got out earlier than that. We stopped out half of our position and the shares just kept falling of ExxonMobil. We'll go to that chart in a moment. Oil. Strong day yesterday. Another update today. However, we faded a bit. We closed up just shy of a half percentage point. We need a breakout here. Volume meh about average. A little bit shy, I should say. Stokes still rising, RSI still rising. I think odds still favor bulls technically. In terms of the lockdowns, I think that oil could have some problems if they continue with these lockdowns. LABU. Franklin, I know you're out there. I saw you today. LABU, bearish reversal bar. Beware. We're probably going to pull back here. If I said a bullish reversal bar a moment ago, I meant a bearish reversal bar and wait for a bullish reversal bar before you add more. We're probably going to head lower here. LABU was down a little, just shy of 5.75%. How is our volume? Closing price, 70 spots, 6.9. Volume light, but these leverage ETFs, they don't need a lot of volume to move. All you need is a buyer's strike and some sellers and automatically they sell off hard. So let's be careful here. Respect them. They're trading vehicles, not investments. Gold. Okay, dollar bullish reversal today. What happened to gold? It fell apart. Can't hold its mud. Seasonally poor period of time. This is the GLD. GLD closed at 175 spot 4.9. Down over a half percentage point. Stokes are rolling over. They're probably going lower. RSI rolling over, probably going lower. Volume did drop off. Versus the past couple of days of selling. I still think we have more downside here. Avoid the GDXJ. I warned about this one last night. We had broken down below support. We even updated our support level. Where do we close today? Just shy of that new support level. Stokes broke support rolling over. We have lower highs, lower lows. Get ready for the 40 handle on GDXJ. The market's going to send us a signal of as to when it's time to back up the truck on the GDXJ. Now is not the time. The technicals are not in our favor. Seasonality is not in our favor. They're locking down the country again. The inflationary story is not in our favor. Therefore, avoid uranium. Doji star formation on the day. We were up. We closed down. Not loving that. So I want to update, and if I didn't say we're talking about our positions now, I want to update our trading channel. If we break down below 1125, that's going to spell trouble for uranium. However, I think the chart still looks good with higher lows on stokes. Down volume was nil. So we'll remain low. Facebook. Okay, so today was make a breakday. And what did it do? It broke. We opened up a small test position on Facebook the day before yesterday. It's not working out. We're going to be stopping out. Perhaps even tonight, if we get a pop back up in the after hour session tomorrow on a new daily low, probably just going to stop out. Ultimate oscillator still looks good here with higher lows. Now note, we did not go adding to this trade on a pullback. That's the discipline. Open up a small position. If we stop out, so what? So what? It's a small test position. The only time you should be beating yourself up over a loss is if you're averaging down with no logic for doing so. So Facebook, we may have to take a small loss on rocket mortgage. I don't know what the story is with this company, man. We broke support today. New daily low. I'm going to watch the 20 period moving average, which is at current about 260 per share. Looking for a reversal bar off of that level. We've seen in the past, as you can see here, that we've respected the rising 20 period moving average in the past. Let's see if that holds at Sun Mobile. As I mentioned earlier, we saw weakness late morning, early afternoon, and we booked half profits. We had a very heavy position here. We bought, I mean, pretty much near the lows, and we've enjoyed a very nice ride higher here. It was time to ring the bell, make some profits real. Let's allow for a pullback. We can always reenter. I'm liking $36 per share, maybe $35 per share as support to reenter. Members more to come. Our emerging markets trades, dollars are going to rally. So we saw a pullback on BRZU. We made book profits here. As soon as tomorrow, if the dollar gains steam, the EDC, the emerging market ETF, down just shy of a percentage point, breakout point failure, folks. We had broken out the day before yesterday on Monday. Yesterday we closed, let's say, at support. Today we broke down. We're probably going to make some profits real tomorrow. I'm raising cash, folks, and leaning into the short side, does that mean we're not going to get a Santa Claus rally? Odd's favorite bulls this time of year. So we'll keep an open mind. We'll stay nimble. I will talk to you tomorrow morning, folks. Everyone have a great evening. Be well.