 And welcome to, wow, number 31, the 31st episode of Bird Noises presented by Bose in Atlanta Falcons podcast about football and mostly everything else. And these days it's mostly football. Today we are joined by a good friend of mine, a really smart dude who has covered the NFL for CBS Sports dot com. He, you can find him on CBS Sports dot com and CBS Sports HQ live. He also is on the pick six podcast, which is awesome. And I'm sure every NFL fan has downloaded and listened to. And if you haven't, you need to because it's really, really good. Ryan, you have been at CBS Sports since 2011. And I know that you are also also are a really smart dude. You went to William and Mary and Carnegie Mellon. So you are definitely the smartest guest. Whoever I doubt that here and I hope not bird noises. Welcome to the podcast, dude. Good to see you. Thank you, Matt. Good to talk to you, brother. I haven't talked to you in a while. Yeah, it's been a been a minute is the kids say, but it's good to see. Yeah. Good. How's the weather in upstate New York? It's 20 degrees right now. Let's see today. We're recording this on a Tuesday on Sunday. I had to take my nine year old to the get his hand checked out. He fell down, so it's literally a blizzard. So last week we had one day at 55 and I thought we'd turn the corner and we are right back in the middle of it. Wow. So on today's show, we're going to talk mock drafts free and see, get some bold predictions from a Ryan Wilson to wrap it up. But first, I want to do a little rapid fire with you, Ryan. We are going to, I'm going to give you five words or phrases. And this is always fun for, for us to do. So, and it kind of, you kind of see where the guest head is at, too. So I'm going to give you those. You just say the first thing that comes to your mind. Don't worry about, you know, it being not, you know, not suitable for work. So these are actually easy ones. So the Patriots in the last 24 hours. There's, there's such a message like, you know, I want to expand too much. But last year you kicked them when they were down and they're back. Arthur Smith. Uh, what's the person called Arthur Smith? I love the mustache. I love home depot. I think he wants to win. And I think he's, he's made that clear in the off season. We'll just see how, you know, the new front office coaching staff and personnel acquisitions work out, but he, you know, don't mistake him as a nice guy in terms of football stuff. Cause at the end of the day, you know, don't, don't be fooled by the smile. That was Arthur blank, wasn't it? Oh yeah. I did Arthur blank. Hey, by the way, Arthur Smith, it's important to start with a guy signing the checks, didn't you move down the line? So yeah, Arthur Smith, that was great for Arthur blank. Well, here's Arthur Smith. Uh, I love FedEx. You go down the line, you go down the line. Uh, here's the funny thing about Arthur Smith. Uh, I'll make this short. Uh, he proved himself in Tennessee because I think there were some doubters that maybe, uh, he didn't deserve the job or whatever, but however he got, he got there, he proved himself and he parlayed that into a well-deserved head coaching job. I think so too. I mean, you look at the job he did with Ryan Tannehill and then Derek Henry really wasn't the Derek Henry we know till he got his hands on him. So all right, let's get going. Taste some Hills contract. Hilarious. Uh, it sort of proves that the salary cap is, is, uh, you know, you can, it's magic. He can do it with what you want. Uh, it's sort of funny. I wish they'd sign him to a four year, $4 billion deal, but I'll take four year 140. I'm going to ask you more about that in a minute. I, and then the last thing is, uh, Matt Ryan. Um, he's got, he's got something left in the tank. I know, I do these mock drafts. I have a lot of times about the second quarterback, but I think he, he's got a few more years left to prove that he's still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. All right. It's good stuff. All right. Real quick. So the Patriots, 137.5 million dollars guaranteed in the, in less than 24 hours, dude, what is going on? Yeah. I think, and I said this, um, on the picks six podcasts Monday, we did the free agency in the afternoon conversation. This is before the Hunter Henry news. And even before the Kendrick born news, the wider shooter, the other why they signed. I said last year, 2019, 2020 was Bill Belichick saying, okay, we're down, kick us, go crazy, um, but you better get your money's worth, uh, Buffalo. You better win a Super Bowl because you got one year. So Buffalo is still the best team at the vision, but yeah, I get to you that they've been watching this closely and thinking about how they can improve themselves because again, great season for the bills. The Patriots ain't winning seven games again. Even if it's, uh, someone other than Cam Newton back there, I think the way this team is currently constituted is such an upgrade over what Cam Newton didn't have last year. And I'm still not convinced Cam Newton was, was healthy last year. He looked, he was a running back, but he couldn't throw the ball and, you know, we're five years now. We're moving from that MVP season. And, and I think maybe we get a little closer to that or at least, uh, less what we saw last year in KM. And I'm part of me wonders if all these, um, moving and shaking said the, the Patriots have done the last two days, it's just more of them being laser focused and trying to get a quarterback of the draft as well. Cause they're filled out all these other needs, all this cap space. So I think they're telling the rest of the league, uh, all right. We're back. Hope you enjoyed it. Two thoughts on what you just said now, we've seen two seasons now of Cam Newton struggling to throw a little bit, right? I mean, his last year in Carolina, he was hurt to be fair. And then the other thing is, Ryan, how many times, you know, we said, Hey, these guys are the, they, they won free agency. They remember Dan Snyder in the early days, you know, he would, you'd always try to win free agency, right? That's when you cover the Redskins and he had hair. I remember those pictures. Thanks for bringing that up. Yeah. And so, um, you know, is there a little bit of that too? Do we tap the brakes a little bit here and say, okay, they've, they've, you know, they've added a ton of talent, but it's still has, you still, it still has to mash. And Cam is still a question mark for me. No, that's a great point. And, um, as has been pointed out by, to me, by other people, uh, if this is in the other team, we're like, we're pointing out that this is, this is insane. Like this is just, as you point out, Washington football team trying to win the off season, which they did every year than every year they would lose in the regular season. And last year, the dolphins spent 147 million and they missed the playoffs. In 2019, they just spent 131 million and missed the playoffs. So there's not a great track record of teams going crazy, but I think we're at the point in the process where Bill Belichick gets the doubt every single time, but he's missed the Cam Newton thing didn't work out last year. They resigned it, which I think surprised some people myself included. He's missed on some free agent signings over the years, but they've been on a mass that with Tom Brady. They couldn't mask it last year without Tom Brady. So we'll see. I think at the end of the day, the quarterback situation is still the most important for them. But their lack of wide receivers the last two years was, you know, unconscionable. I mean, you can't play football with no wide receivers. They got better there. Uh, they got some edge rush help. Um, so they got two tight ends now. Yep. Yeah, so Henry and John who, yeah. And that's after drafting two tight ends last year. So they're going on the tight ends, but, uh, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. We'll see. I think ultimately it just depends on Cam, as you point out though. So let's pivot. Well, before we get start talking mocks, because I just, when I think of my drafts, I think of Ryan Wilson, we'll get into that history in a second. But, uh, the Saints thing, it's some point when you, when you give somebody a four year, $140 million contract, all voidable, wouldn't everything be doing that? Or they, at some point you, they're going to have to pay for this. Is it going to catch up to them? And are they just like banking on like a silly, a silly salary cap number years down the road that they just won't feel it as much? I mean, what explained this to me? Well, the, the monkey wrench in the whole process was COVID-19, the pandemic, uh, dampened down the salary cap. So it was 198, I think, coming into last year. And then it's 182.5, I think is what it is right now. And yeah, the Saints, you know, that silly money deal to, to take some hell, which is funny. I get it. But they also had to, to make some cuts. I mean, they, they cut Kwan Alexander. They cut Mandy Sanders. They cut your North Jenkins. They cut Josh Hill. They cut Malcolm Brown. I'm looking through the list here. They had to let Trey Hendrickson walk in free agency. So there were some guys, they had to make some tough decisions that allowed them to get James Winston, which sounds funny to say, but it's a reality. And to sort of make that silly deal, what would pay some hill, but I would imagine they expect the salary cap to be 210 or 215 or whatever up from, from 198. And it went the exact opposite direction. So there are teams having to make tough decisions. But I think at the end of the day, you can always do the math to make it work. We just saw the chiefs sign Joe Tooney. And you're like, well, the chiefs have no salary cap space. Well, they had to cut both their tackles. So that helped them. And that's how teams get around it. They, they do make tough decisions where they can't bring players back. But it's never going to be the wholesale thing or almost rarely the wholesale thing where you have to cut 20 guys and then you can't do anything. So the Saints aren't in great shape. But also the retirement of Drew Brees, I think it's going to help them after June 1st. I think that's what the math works out to. But they're losing guys that you, they would presumably like to keep. But they're in such a good situation personnel wise and the season to come off of that it doesn't feel quite as painful as, say, if you're the Texans who don't appear to know what they're doing personnel wise and don't have a ton of salary cap space. Well, you know, who's loving what's happening in New Orleans right now is our Falcons fans. They're, they're, you know, when you see take some hill signed for four year, 140 million and all these cuts, no, no tears in Atlanta. So let's, let's pivot to mock drafts. And so obviously you're going to have to rethink your, your Patriots pick now. So when, when Ryan wills, you've been doing these, you do a ton. And I don't even know what the number is. What, what, what are you up to this year so far? I'm up to version 28. I do one every week starting with the start of the college football season. And it sounds insane because it is insane, but people absolutely, and you know this, you do my drafts, people absolutely eat it up. Typically very angrily, but you know that's sort of the point. And that's why you do it. So is it nuts to do one every week? Yeah, it is. It probably doesn't make a lot of sense. And that's what you find yourself doing is having to mix things up just for the sake of mixing things up even if you don't necessarily think that'll happen. But it's also a good exercise for me because I sort of over the course of the season know what the needs are for the team, see how they change, see which players are playing well for the NFL teams. And maybe that changes how you view who they may want once April gets here. But yeah, so I've been doing, this is version 28. And then, you know, just like Groundhog Day versus 29 will come out next week. Yeah, I think I may have been at CBS when we started going every week and then during the season. So part of me feels a little guilt and a little joy in this. This is part of your fault. That's right. So when you're putting this, obviously you want to talk, when you, well, you tell us when you put it together, what is the method to the madness? What is, tell us how you make, you know, tell us how the sausage comes together. And is it just, is it based on rumors? Is it based on these headlines? Is it based on team needs? All of the above, do you try to, you know, kind of throw things out there that might kind of arouse some people? All of the above, what is it? And I want to talk about your most recent one. Yeah, so it literally starts the day after the draft. I put out a mock draft. They want one for the next season, the day after the most current mock drafts are the most current actual draft. So I did that in early May. And that's based on guys that most for the most part, you know, are most a lot of quarterbacks who returned and guys who returned who were going to be day one, day two guys. So you sort of go from that. And that's been the summer. I watched about 100 guys to get a head start on the college football season about who to know. And then I'll talk to some, some teams and some scouts in August about what they're looking at. And that's how I start the season. So I go every week and I usually don't start bugging scouts again until like November, December, after they've seen everyone because they're driving around. They have things to do. They don't need someone harassing them. And then, you know, occasionally I'll get texts about a guy. And so throughout the course of the college football season, it's me watching college football on Saturdays, just like everyone else and getting to feel mostly for the quarterbacks. And then I'll start watching the that year's tape in about November around Thanksgiving and then right on through till April. And it's just, I think that's really important the amount of time that you do put into it and the actual studying that you do. Like I had Matt Miller on here. Yeah. And yeah. And I just think that you guys, people take for granted the amount of work that you put into these things that you're not using some mock draft generator. Well, here's that you found online. Here's the thing. Like when you were at CBS, I was writing the whole bunch. I write a lot less now. Here's how my days are typically now. If I'm not doing like HQ video stuff, which I do a good bit of for not for agency draft season, but I spend my days, I get up and I'm usually watching. I have a list of guys that I need to see and I watch four or five guys. And then that's what I do. I write them up. And here's my thing. If you're just doing, like if you are an NFL writer, you don't have time to do this. And you do mock drafts in the spring. That's awesome. I love that idea. But you're probably not watching 200, 300 guys because you don't have time. But this is my, like I'm the draft guy. So I have to make sure I know who these guys are. I don't, one of my biggest fears is, you know, being a fraud. I don't want to say I know something about someone and don't know them. So if that means having to watch three games of some Division III guy who has a chance to be drafted, then that's just, you know, their worst jobs. As my dad used to say, you could be digging ditches. So, I'm happy to do it. So I love it. It's actually, it was a nice change of pace in terms of what I was doing at CBS. But yeah, that's how I spend most of my time. It's not particularly glamorous. And I'll be honest, I've had a lot of help from people inside the business and the media and a lot of people that work for teams that have been extremely helpful to me. And, you know, that's part of it. Building relationships and, and, you know, trying to, because here's my thing. And it's a pretty good selling point for me. As a media person, when I talk to NFL teams, I always say, when I'm introducing myself, I don't want to break any, I don't care about what you guys are doing on Sundays. I don't care about how your roster looks. I don't want to break any news. I just want to bounce off, bounce off you college players that I have questions about. And to a person, whenever I've reached out to people and they've gone back to me, they've been more than happy to do it. So, I love that. Yeah, I'm sure they do. Because I don't, I mean, they're helping me out without question. I always say to them, if there's anything I can do if you let me know, I don't know what it would be. But I'm not asking for anything in terms of them having to put themselves on the line because they're telling secrets out of school. I don't care about it. Like, that's not my job. My job is to be Adam Schafter or Jason Lockham Ford. My job is to be able to evaluate these kids. And if I see something, I want to be able to confirm it or have explained to me why someone else feels differently. And that's the great thing about the MoxRaffs. People feel differently about every pick. And I know that, I know Falcons fans do, because every time I put a quarterback at number four, I get a lot of tweets about how I'm the dumbest person on planet Earth. So I'm well aware of that. Which you're not. So let's just talk about when you're picking at number four in general, forget about Atlanta at this point. That's a pretty attractive position for a lot of reasons, right? You get a top five pick. It's attractive to other teams that have needs. You could parlay that into more picks when you think about the salary cap situation. That might be attractive. But right now you have an organization, Ryan, who has a new GM, new coach. They've missed the playoffs last three years, seven and nine, seven and nine, four and 12. You know, they had to come in here and obviously present a plan for short term success and long term success. So you don't want to like say, hey, we're going to just pull the band it off and kick the can down the road and or that kind of thing. You want to generate some excitement and you want to, you've still got some pieces here. So when you look at Atlanta now, do you think that they trade up, stay put, trade down? Which one of those scenarios do you think is the most likely? And then walk me through what you think you know could happen. If they, for instance, if you think that they would seriously trade up with who and for whom kind of thing. So when you look at the Falcons right now, just based on where we are today's news, where we are in free agency, what do you think they do? I think right now, I don't think trading up is that attractive an option at number four, unless you truly love one of these quarterbacks. And there's so much split decision on these quarterbacks after Trevor Lawrence that it's hard to tell how NFL teams feel. I mean, I've talked to, I've talked to teams that people think I'm crazy, but they actually like Matt Jones better than Justin Fields and Trey Lance because there's a higher floor with Matt Jones. You know what you're getting, Trey Lance and Justin Fields are incredibly athletic. Haven't played a ton of football. Matt Jones probably isn't going to suddenly go out there and run a 4-4. He's going to be the guy that he is, a pocket passer where Justin Fields has room to grow in terms of processing. And Trey Lance hasn't played a ton. He only played one season then play last year. But the athleticism but those guys is insanely off the charts and exactly what you look for. So all that said, I don't know where the Falcons are in that conversation. I just talked earlier about Matt Ryan thinking he has a couple more years left to play. So if I'm the Falcons, I probably stay put. Number one, unless someone wants to trade up in which case you move down four or five or six or however many picks and stockpile a bunch of picks and continue as you point out, Matt, to rebuild the roster and primarily on defense. But obviously there are needs on offense as well. But I don't think if I'm the Falcons, I trade up either whether it's Zach Wilson or Justin Fields, maybe someone trades up to two for the Jets and they move down or someone trades up for three for the Falcons. They move down and you miss out on that quarterback. That's the decision you have to make if you're the Falcons as a new GM and new head coach. Do you want to roll with Matt Ryan? Do you want to bring someone in like the Packers did with Jordan Love and have them just sit there? Because you're not trading Matt Ryan this year. That's just salary cabbage. It's not feasible. So that's the that's what they're going to have to figure out. And this, you know, it's worth noting but it's also worth adding to caveat. Next year's draft class for wide receiver as we sit here isn't lights out. But every year, two or three or four guys come along that we didn't expect. Joe Burrow last year's Zach Wilson this year. So there could certainly be players that come along next year. If you're planning and saying, hey, I don't, I think we should get a quarterback now because next year's class doesn't look great. That always changes. But that could be a conversation that teams are having about whether to move up or stay put. When you look at Terry Fondo, he came up through the Saints. He was under Mickey Loomis. Does that shed any light? And, you know, what they might do. Obviously having Sean Payton there, too, is a big factor. But does that shed any light on what they might do? You think or no? I think we should look forward to the trade for Taysum Hill and give them a four-year, $140 million contract all-boydable. Let's hope he handles the salary cap. Let's hope he handles the salary cap a little better than the Saints do. But I would imagine the trade-off of winning all those football games might be one worth making. I think a lot of teams would do that. That said, the Falcons were in the silver ball not too long ago. So they're not that far away. It just feels like their defense hasn't been up to snuff. And I look back to that silver ball game. That defense actually played one of the best games of the year that year. They were just on the field, I recall, for 99 snaps. And at some point, you're going to wear down against Tom Brady, even though for the most part, they wore him out. And just at the end, they weren't able to hold on. And it wasn't the defense's fault. You know, we don't need to reopen that wound. But I think... Yeah. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what Fondo brings based on what the experiences he had. I think it's important to... Although not necessarily necessary, but it's important to have people, players, front office guys who come from winning cultures because that's what you want to continue to push forward. So yeah, I don't have a real finger on the pulse of what Fondo might be thinking. But... And we don't know yet free agency because they haven't done a whole bunch. So... No, just kind of parted ways. Yeah. We'll have to sort of find out altogether. All right. Well, I'm going to nail you down on this one real quick. So let's just talk about those three picks ahead of the Falcons, just your gut. Right now, you think Jacksonville goes and does what? Trevor Lawrence. So I think that's a done deal. I don't... I mean, they don't think Trevor Lawrence is P. Prisco, or your former co-worker, my co-worker now said that Urban Meyer should be fired on the spot. So I think that... He said something like that? Come on. I know, right? So the funny thing is, Urban Meyer went to... Trevor Lawrence's pro-day and was front and center. You can see him everywhere. Treliance had his pro-day last week and Urban Meyer was off giving a press cover. He wasn't there. He's not doing that. So I think that's a done deal. Yeah. All right. Pick two, Jets. You know, they got a new head coach. They made some moves in free FC, too. Yeah. This is where things get really interesting. They got... They got a wide receiver. Who did they get? Let me check. We'll have all this. Corey Davis. Yeah, they got Corey Davis. That's right. So they got Corey Davis. They got Carl Lawson, the edge rusher. They got Jared Davis out of the linebacker from Detroit. So yeah, they're making moves. I like the defensive pickups. You mentioned Robert Salah. He's a defensive guy. But I think that this is where the draft starts. Are they going to roll with Sam Darnold? Do they have under 100 for another year and then can franchise with this other side? Or fifth year option if they want? Are they going to draft a quarterback whether it's Zach Wilson or Justin Fields or even Treliance? And number two, if you do, can you move Sam Darnold? I think that's critically important. Or do you trade down? Is there a team that wants to trade up to number two to get one of these quarterbacks? My gut has been throughout the process if you're the just to trade down and stick with Sam Darnold because I think we don't know how you've got a lot of picks, right? Don't they have a lot of picks? Six in the first 100. They have a ton of cap space to use some of that already. Sam Darnold hasn't been great, but I mean he's had his hands tied behind his back and had Adam Gase not really work out. Greg Williams with the other side of the ball not really working out. Steve's coordinator, they're both gone. I just wonder if you put an offense around him, get another offensive lineman to book in. Mackay back in last year's first round pick. They signed Corey Davis. They have Denzel Mentz from last year. They have Jameson Crowder. I mean they could make some noise. The issue of course is that the Patriots have already won the offseason. We'll see how that translates into the regular season. But I think if you draft Zach Wilson or Justin Fields, you're going to have to plan because he's a number two overall pick. That's just how it works. Is it fair? Is it smart? Not necessarily. But I don't know if Sam Darnold's even going to be on the roster if you do that. So I think right now the Jets try to trade down. Okay. And presumably somebody who trades up is going for a quarterback. Yeah. And then Miami. There was a... Are you on the trade to a trainer now? For DeSean Watson, absolutely. And I'm on that trend for just about everybody, except for Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow probably. I mean, I would trade... If I'm to Seahawks, I'm trading Russ Wilson for DeSean Watson. It's probably a pretty... It's a much closer trade. But if you're the Packers, are you trading DeSean Watson for Aaron Rodgers? You're certainly thinking about it. Aaron Rodgers, is he going to play another five years? He'd be probably good. So maybe that's another name you add to the list of don't trade. But it's a small list. But yeah. So... But I think, you know, Chris Greer, the GM, and Brian Florce, the coach of that tool, Ryan Fitzpatty, he's no longer there. So if he's in fact their guy, you can draft a wide receiver here. You can draft an offensive lineman. I love Jamar Chase at LSU, but I do wonder... Yeah, yeah. Me too. Drafting a wide receiver that high hasn't typically worked out in recent years. I think you actually have to go back to Julio the last time it really worked out. And that's when the Falcons traded up to get him. Yeah. But we've had guys go in the top... Calvin really too, I think, may have been in top 10 picks. Is that right? No, he was down. He was down. In the 20s. Yep. Yeah, okay. So yeah, not Calvin really. So... But even last year, I mean, Henry Ruggs was the first wide receiver drafted. He didn't go until 12th or 13th. And then the fifth wide receiver was Justin Jefferson in 22. 1,400 receiving yards. So you can take Jamar Chase there. And I don't think anyone will... Pretty good. Yeah, he's pretty good. Anyone will not keep taking Jamar Chase there. But if you could trade down, again, get more picks, go for it. Yeah. Okay, so that puts you... So that's too... So I'm assuming if you trade down, that's another quarterback off. So we're saying probably Zach Wilson probably listening to you, maybe either Matt Jones or... Or Tray Lance, right? Yeah, I don't know if Matt Jones will go that high. I think he's a top 10 guy. Yeah, that seems awful high. Yeah. And I know some teams think he's a top 10 guy, but he may end up going in the 15 range. Okay. That makes sense. But I think, yeah, the first three guys, Lawrence in some combination after Lawrence and Zach Wilson and probably Justin Fields. Okay. So that gives... You know, Lannis and therefore they can... They could pick the Pinay Sewell. They could pick Kyle Pitts. They could still... If one of the quarterbacks is there, I forgot. I forgot Justin. We didn't talk about Justin Fields. So it would probably... I'm guessing after Lawrence it would be what Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields kind of thing. So Tray Lance could be there, Matt Jones could be there. The best offensive Lyman is still available, which I know you have this week. Pinay going to the Falcons, correct? Yeah. In fact, I think that's the first time I got... I have to... In 28 mock drafts that have had them taking an offensive Lyman that high. Typically it's been an edge rusher, a cornerback, someone on defense. And then recently, the last six weeks or so, I've had them taking, I think, even the last month or so, I had them taking Kyle Pitts for the first time, which I absolutely love Kyle Pitts, the title of Florida at number four. And when I first did it, Falcons fans were extremely angry because like, whoa, you don't like Hayden Hurst? It's like, no, I like Hayden Hurst a lot, but he only has one year left on his deal and there's no other tight ends on the roster. And not only that, Kyle Pitts is not a tight end. He's just a guy that he's called a tight end who can line up anywhere. He's basically Darren Waller. And if you think Matt Ryan would like to throw to Darren Waller, that ain't a bad place to get him at number four because he could end up being the first pass receiver to go off the board. That's how special he is and how much... He's much more of a sure thing in my mind than these wide receivers, even though I like a lot of these wide receivers. But I think it's a consideration of four, but again, they need a lot of defensive help. But that said, while you need etch rush help, there's not going to be an etch rusher that goes that high. There's not one worth it. So if you're not going to be a player in free agency and they haven't been yet with the etch rushers, you could take Panaceaul. Now you might say, well, we drafted Caleb McGarry and Chris Listrom in the first round a couple of years ago, and we still have Matthews. But you could kick Caleb McGarry inside. I don't know what the plans are, but you can never have enough good offensive linemen. And I think, and I was saying this to everybody, well, Brinson, who I work with, my last memory of Matt Ryan the last few years is him just getting absolutely obliterated behind the line of scrimmage. Like he takes 131 sacks. A ton of hits. Three last three years. Yeah. So I mean, keep drafting offensive linemen until you get it figured out because you're going to get the man killed. And Panaceaul is a fantastic athlete after that last year, but I think he has a chance to be special. And you don't see a lot of mock drafts at least number four have the Falcons targeting offensive linemen, but it's sort of a need, especially as you point out, if Matt Ryan is just getting beaten play after play after play. Well, yeah, they're going to need a left guard. They have Matt Hennessy. We don't know what's going to happen with Alex Mack. And so, right, you just look at, they haven't been able to run the ball consistently, efficiently since 17 maybe, you know, when they had the, they were bounced in the playoffs at Philly. And, you know, since then, they've been in the lower quartile of the league rushing. So the question is to you then, you take, you got to take the best player available, right? No one remembers your needs, right? They always remember the player you passed up on. So is it Kyle Pitts or is it Panaceaul to you? That's a great question. I think. So let me double check. I did a three-round, I did a three-round mock draft last week. So I want to see what I had the Falcons doing. So last week when I did a three-round mock draft, had him taking Kyle Pitts, I think he is the best player available there, if even if Panaceaul's there. And the second round had him taking Jeremiah Wusecormoa, who's a linebacker slash safety hybrid type. He's sort of a Jeremy Chin type. He's sort of a Isaiah Simmons type. So he can do a lot of things for you. He's probably too small to play linebacker full-time. And then the third round had him taking Kellan Mann, the quarterback out of Texas A&M, who I really, really, really like. Now that ain't a need, but he's a, I don't think they have a backup quarterback on the roster, do they? No, Matt Shaw retired, and Kurt Benkert, they've partnered with so. Yeah. So I mean, you know, at some point you got to figure that out and you don't have to draft the guy in the third round. But he's the guy who can come in and play. Like he can start in spot duty early on. He had a really solid career at Texas A&M. So, but again, in round three, you might want to circle back and get off to tackle or certainly keep addressing the defense. It's probably pretty rare that you see a mock draft that has two of the first three picks going offense for the Falcons. But I think Cal Pets to answer your question is the best player on the board at four, even if Panay Sule is there, and Panay Sule may offer more upside. And I only say that because the tie-in class is not very deep. You can find some offensive tackles in round two and round three that can help you out pretty quickly. Okay. The other thing to think about too is not for this pick, but if you were to trade down and still stay in the top 10 possibly or in the top 15, you talk about the defense. They do need an edge rusher. They do need, you know, the back end is, they need a safety. They need two, at least one. And they need another corner possibly. They need, they need, you know, Todd Gurley and Brian Hill. Are gonna be free agents. So, and we know what Arthur Smith likes to do. You know, he, he keeps talking about adapt, being adaptable and having smart players. But when you look at what he did in Tennessee, he had Derek Henry too. So he knows he's, he doesn't have Derek Henry here, but can you go find a Derek Henry? Can you trade down? Could you possibly trade down and pick up a top corner and get a Travis Etienne or Najee Harris? I mean, but you're, like you said, you're, you're passing up on a really, really good football player for. I do like where you're thinking though, if you trade down and you could get an edge rusher at 10 or 12 or 15, whether it's Greg or so, not great. I wouldn't take him that high actually. Aziz O'Jallari, Quitty Pay, those are guys I like a lot. Boogie Baskin would go even later in the first round. If you trade down and do that, you could take someone like Javante Williams out of UNC with pick 35. And that would be, I love those Carolina backs. Oh my gosh. And they are just terrorizing teams. If you want an idea, if you're listening of what that Carolina backs can do, just go watch the Carolina, Miami highlights and they ran all over it. And listen, Miami has two dudes up front that are going to get drafted. Jalen Phillips is probably the first round edge rusher. That's the guy that I, I mean, he would make a lot of sense for the Falcons 15 or later, probably in round one. Quincy Roche on the other side is probably going to be a day two, maybe day three pick. They have some players and they got absolutely steamroll. But Javante Williams, some people like him as the number one back, which is, you know, we don't hear a lot of that, but usually Travis 18, as you mentioned, are not your hairs, but Javante Williams is right there in the mix. If you got him at 35 or even traded down and we're able to get him in the, if he's there in the high 40s, maybe, I don't know if you want to wait around. But I like the idea of trading down the first round, getting edge rusher and then taking Javante Williams at 35 because you're, you're, you're doing some things there. Yeah, I really like that too. And I just, I think those running backs, I think there's a handful of running backs that are, are worth, you know, low first round, two of them. And then I think those Carolina backs are definitely day two guys, round two guys probably. Really, really good. And I have watched that Miami game in that one run down the sideline. If he could have kept his balance, it would have gone down as one of the greatest college football runs, like in the last, I don't know, five, 10 years, it was really good. It was, and just when you watched that Carolina sideline, they lost their minds. All right. Well, let's, that, that is helpful. We kind of see, you know, how you kind of put this together in the brains behind it, which is fascinating for Draftniks. There are, Eric K hates that, Eric K of CBS hates that term, Draftniks. Let's go to, let's give it to Friade C. This is really interesting because when you have a little to no salary cap room, which the Falcons are in that boat, we just talked about the Saints. And you've, you're charged with, you know, putting a team out there that can excite the fan base. What kind of players can Falcons fans in your mind expect the team to sign? Is it going to be a lot of these guys that are going to, that are just maybe second tier, third tier guys, or guys that maybe want to bet on themselves, Ryan, that want to sign that one year deal that they think they can come to Atlanta and get that one year deal and parlay it into a big year. And then in that, in that case, isn't there a lot of teams that are trying to recruit players now for that? Is it, do you think there's some recruiting going on? Oh yeah, absolutely. It's, you know, legal tampering, which is always funny, legal speeding. If you, that's what I tell the cops. No, I was legally speeding. It's okay. Well, the funny thing is, you look at the salary cap space right now, according to a spot track, the Falcons are still eight million in the red. And they have till Wednesday, I think, all the teams do that are in the red to get compliant. So they still have some, some moves to make. So they're, they're, they're up against it. And I think you're exactly right. I think they're going to be looking for bargain basement solutions, which look, a lot of good teams do, you know, we always talk about it again, referring back to Washington and their heyday when they would just crush the off season, they would sign three guys for whatever, you know, 40% of the salary cap was, but they forgot about roster spots, 42 to 53. And that's where you make your money. Those guys don't make a lot of money. And that's where you fill out the roster the guys that can come in when guys inevitably get hurt that are starters and you don't see such a drop off. So that's what you're looking for right now. And that's where all these pro scouts make their money because you're sifting through guys. And it gets easier for the teams as we, as the days pass, because the money's getting spent by the big, the teams that have the salary cap space. And then everyone else is just sorting through, you know, basically the loss of the found bin at TJ Maxx or whatever. That's where we're at. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. You can sometimes find bargains there. And I think you're right. I think from the team's perspective, they'll do that. From the player's perspective, they may want to bet on themselves. They may want to find these one year deals when the salary cap goes up next year. They can parlay that into a big money deal. We saw, to some degree, Taran Matthew do that. He signed that one year deal with the Texans. I think it was for $7 million. He forget that he played for the Texans, but he did. That's right. Then he went to Kansas City, went to back-to-back, Sierra Bulls, and he's making what he deserves to make. But he had to bet on himself in a non-COVID year. Sometimes that happens. And I think that's whether you're the Falcons or the Rams or the Steelers on the Steelers' home or they're in this situation, they haven't been able to do anything. They lost Bud DePri. They're about to lose Juju's mischievous. They lost Matt Filer, who was an undrafted free agent who was going to be their starting right tackle. He signed a big money deal with the Chargers. And they've been able to sign one guy that cost them a couple million dollars to bolster secondary. But at the end of the day, the reality is you're going to lose players. And we talked about it with the Saints a little bit. They're in better shape, I think, than the Steelers are. But the Falcons have some decisions to make to get under the cap even by Wednesday. And then you talked about all the needs they had just a few minutes ago and then figuring out how to address those needs, whether it's through the draft or through whatever money they can distribute because they're free agency. And that also goes back to another point that you were sort of hinting at. If you don't have any money in free agency, you have the number four overall pick. You do might want to trade down only to get some bodies. And bodies who can contribute, not a bunch of seventh round picks, but trade down from four to whatever, 18, 19, 20, get some picks of guys that can contribute right away and contribute relatively cheap. Yeah, you have to really believe in your plan at that point, right? I mean, because you're going to take a lot of heat if you pass up on a quarterback. You're going to take up, take a lot of heat if you pass up on, you know, if Kyle Pitts ends up being the next Travis Kelsey. And so that's something that, you know, again, that's something they have to believe in their plan. And then, you know, if Matt plays another year, if Matt, you know, this is, you know, somebody had said, you know, I think Jason Lockham Ford said, this might be the farewell tour for Matt and Julio this year, or Matt Miller may have said that. But the idea that you didn't think ahead and get a quarterback. So there's going to be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking here, like just like in any team, but it's going to be really fascinating to see how it plays out, Ryan. I just, that number four pick and what they do, it's going to, and what they do here before March 17th is going to be so telling. Yeah, and it really begins with number four or number two. It begins with Matt Ryan. So, you know, what they end up, if they believe they can win for five more years with Matt, which if they protect them and give them some weapons and get a defense, I can see that. Yeah, no, that's right. I'm right there with you. But unfortunately, they play in a division where Tom Brady is currently residing and the Buccaneers have done a lot to keep their guys, which is also concerning if you're in the NFC South and not based in Tampa Bay. But I think it'll be interesting. We don't know the Panthers going to do it eight. They need a quarterback. We don't know what the Saints are going to do. They have James under contract for one year and we left about to take some hell. But how's James going to play? I think he'll do okay. But he, and maybe the sort of the bad news for Falcons fans is that Drew Brees wasn't good last year. He probably should retire. He couldn't throw the ball down the field. So maybe James, it's a slight upgrade. That sounds crazy to say. He's going to make worse decisions. So maybe it's fine. I think that was okay with that. All right. Well, this is perfect because you're venturing into my bold prediction. So I'm going to give you four and then I want you to give us one on your own and that's where we're going to wrap this thing up. So give me one draft prospect since you're, I think you're on your seventh rounders now, your profiles. Give me one draft prospect that you think will end up falling on day one. Oh, so let's see. I mentioned Greg Rousseau, the edge rusher out of Miami. I think he may and this, partly because he didn't play this year. But there are questions about not his size. He's six, seven, but he's a little skinny, lower half. So he's a guy that could fall. I don't, Najia Harris could slip a little bit. I think I like Najia Harris better than most teams. I think they probably prefer ATN just because of the athleticism and running backs aren't necessarily that sexy in terms of falling on the first round. So that's not a huge surprise. And another, I'll mention another wide receiver, Rondell Moore, who I think the media is probably higher on how to Purdue than NFL team. But only because he just played in seven games the last two years, but he is so explosive. He is sort of Tyreek tendencies. He's not Tyreek Hill. Hasn't played a lot durability issues, but if he's on, good Lord, he's on stuff. But so those are some names that might fall out of the first round, probably because the media are higher on them than NFL teams actually are. All right, flip side. Who's a name that you think could end up surprising in a team reaching on or just going a lot higher than everyone's thinking? I'll Daniel Jones or someone, someone like that. Yeah, Daniel Jones sticks overall. That was certainly a surprise. So Greg Newsom, the cornerback out of Northwestern. You don't hear a lot about Northwestern football, but they could have two first round guys and Roshan Slater, the left tackle who opted out of Greg Newsom, who's the cornerback who played really well this year. He's a guy that could slip into the first round or move into the first round. Teams know he's good. The media is not quite as high on him. Jayman Davis, the linebacker out of Kentucky, and he also plays with a cornerback, Kelvin Joseph, who was an LSU transfer. Those guys both had really good seasons. Those are two guys that could sneak around the first round area that we haven't heard a lot about. And what you find out is just sort of funny. I'm like, where are these guys coming from? I haven't heard of these guys. They both play SEC. Greg Newsom plays, obviously at Northwestern. How many I hear about these guys? And what you find is NFL teams don't want to hear about them. They're not, when they, when you ask about guys, they purposely don't mention certain guys because they're trying to keep it quiet. Because look, man, fair or not, right or wrong, NFL teams read the internet just like the rest of us or on Twitter, just like the rest of us they see. They're affected by, you know, draft-related tweets just like the rest of us. So that's sort of, you know, that's something, yes, I also have to sift through. So those are three guys that have a chance to sneak into the first round. I mean, Terrace Marshall, the wide receiver at LSU might do it. I think he still has some things to prove in terms of being more consistent, but he's a big target. He can move, played really well last 2019 with that LSU team with Joe Burrow, opted out this year before the Alabama game. That sort of raised some questions, but maybe that's the guy that sneaks into the first round too. Interesting. The Saints in 2021, do you were starting to talk a little bit about that? What are, what do you expect from the Saints? Do you, are they going to roll with Jamis? Is it going to be Jamis and Taysam? Or do you think Sean Payton still got something up his sleeve? Well, that three round mock draft I did last week or before, I had them taking Kyle Trask in the second round. The quarterback out of Florida. He does have a great arm, doesn't move well. Sounds like Drew Brees to me. Played really well. He hadn't played a ton of football until he took over for Felipe Franks in 2019. But I think they roll with Jamis. I think that's the plan. We've heard Sean Payton talk them up. Sean Payton's talked about other things and you're like, all right, I don't take you seriously and, you know, come on, for real with Taysam Hill. And, but I think Jamis is going to be their guy. I don't know if Jamis, yeah, I don't know if Jamis would have come back if he had an opportunity to start somewhere else without something close to an assurance. So I think they're going to roll with Jamis and see what happens. And maybe I'll put it to you this way, Matt. I think Jamis in New Orleans is a better situation than Cam in New England last year. I think that Jamis has more upside than Cam simply because he can throw the ball. Like we don't know Cam can throw the ball and this should be better for Cam, I would imagine. But last year, we were just projecting a lot. Oh, Cam's going to be healthy. He'll be fine. Well, it turns out he didn't appear to be 100%. I think Jamis will be okay. Yeah. And I think the Saints, they, you know, you talked about some of the losses. They, you know, some, some of the cuts in free agency so far. But they still have a lot of good parts. All right. Last one. And then I'm going to have, you give us one, the Falcons 2021 record. Ryan, I know it's super early. And we haven't even started free agency. We haven't, we haven't even hit the draft. But give us, give us where you think the Falcons land in the NFC South and just their overall record, you think. So you said 4-12, 7-9, 7-9. Is that right? The last three? Yep. Yep. All right. I think Arthur Smith, I think he's actually a really good hire. The thing about coaching hires is how do these coaches transition from being a coordinator, which is typically what they come from, where they're really good, to being a manager, which is basically less about the ex than that was more about motivating these players to do what you want them to do. So that'll be the true test. But I think I'll give, I'll give Arthur Smith eight and eight. I think that's realistic it's not super exciting for Falcons fans. No, you're talking wild card, maybe. That's true. That's right. And you play, oh, I don't know if we're going to 17 games. That's going to mess up that. You can't go 500 if you have to seven. That's right. I forgot about 17. So eight and nine or... They're going eight and a half and eight and a half. I'm still going to stick with the 500 schedule. But I think that's a that's a good start and for a first-year coach that dealt with nothing in the way of salary cap space, a ton of questions, especially on defense. And if they can figure out what to go eight and eight, that's a step in the right direction. Yeah, I think that would be great. You kidding me? Because that would mean depending on how those eight wins come come November, December, they're relevant. They're the fan. That's that's what you want. So and that would just be when you think about the slow starts this team has had the last few years. That would be something. So definitely I think they would take that. All right, you give us just give us a wonky, wild, bold prediction from Ryan Wilson. Could be about anything. Doesn't have to be Falcons. What what do you think what is something in the back of your mind you think is going to happen that isn't just getting a lot of play right now. 12 months from now, Matt, you and I both will have afros. That is my What's that club? What's that club that they do the follicles? Or no, who was it? The linebacker for the Bears. Oh, Locker did it. That's right. Or Locker. Yeah, he did. I got to look up his company. That's right. That's not my bold prediction. That's just wishful thinking. Hopefully we'll hear one day. Hopefully we'll be a little long enough to see that happen. My bold prediction. And I've been sort of saying this for months now and people think I'm crazy, but I'm going to keep rolling with it. I'm going to own it. Matt Jones is going to be a top 10 pick and he could go as high as eight. I feel like to the Panthers, the Panthers were on the coaching staff at the senior Bowl. They got to have a personal look at them. Again, I mentioned Matt Jones isn't particularly sexy as a quarterback in today's NFL, but 20 years ago, he's probably a top five pick because he's a traditional pocket passer, incredibly accurate. Those are deep all well. He was better at Alabama than two. I've talked to people at Alabama that don't disagree with that. And for some reason, we give to a pass. Two is not that athletic. Two doesn't run around like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, even Russ Wilson really. But I think that it's a great point. Matt Jones is incredibly smart. He can run your offense sooner rather than later. I think he's the most NFL ready quarterback to play after Trevor Lawrence. And I think he's going to be a top 10 pick now. He'll probably go around three, but I'm going to own it. Whatever happens, happens. He's athletic, though. He's athletic enough. Enough. And I agree. And he's fiery, too. I mean, you look at him and he's got the part of hair and everything like that. But what was his nickname like Mackin row or something like that? I don't know. I like it. But, you know, he's a fiery guy. He's athletic enough. And then people actually criticize him, Ryan, because he had NFL weapons around him. Well, so did too. So did too. And you know what? I had a scout text me this. He said, Joe Burrow did too. No one was yelling about Joe Burrow having all the weapons. And that's right. I think it's sort of weird that Matt Jones. But I think it's compared to Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, all guys who can, Zach Wilson, all guys who are athletic, strong armed, all the things that Matt Jones isn't. But Matt Jones just makes plays. So if you're okay with that, he's not a bad prize. So I think. What's your cop? What's your cop? He's not. He's he's a he's a less athletic Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow moves around a lot. Joe Burrow holds the ball a lot longer than Matt Jones did. Matt Jones gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. He has a little Matt Ryan in his game. Like he he's he's smart. He doesn't have Matt Ryan's arm, but he gets the ball out where he used to go. He understands defenses. He's rarely confused. Unlike Joe Burrow, like I just said, he doesn't hold the ball. He's much better processor than Tua. And look, here's something. When Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddle say they'll take Matt Jones over to Tua, I'm going to sort of roll with that. Oh, yeah. They didn't say that publicly. They said that in meetings reportedly. So they weren't just saying it just to be saying it. So, you know, that gets your attention as well. Yeah, I don't know how our fan base would feel about that. There's because I there's a saying I had Matt Jones going. I've had Matt Jones going forward to the Falcons and the amount of hate on that on that tweet is rivaled only by Matt Jones going to the Panthers at eight by the Panthers. See, I like that too. I think just Joe Brady and yeah. I'm with you. But I'll say this. There is a large contingent of Falcons fans that still miss the Michael Vickiers. That's still, you know, they still think that he was the guy, the best all time here under center. They want a they love that swag. They love that excitement. They want that back. I get that. They're enamored with Deshaun Watson, who you know, is from up the road here. So now listen to Sean Watson. He's better than anyone in the draft class. I would take him maybe if you're the Jaguars. You don't trade Trevor Lawrence, but everybody else you think long and hard about it. But I would I would think about treating them one overall pick for Deshaun Watson. So the Falcons definitely for taking. I don't think they have the fire part to get them, but I love that. What would it take like two twos, two twos, two ones, and some starters? I mean, I think like if I'm the Texans, the conversation starts with three ones and a player. I know that the Texas GM necessarily doesn't want to be the guy who trades to Sean. You also don't want to be the guy who makes Deshaun set out and you get nothing for him. So there's some math to figure out there. But I think if I'm the Texans have more levers now that they're going to have as we get closer to the draft. So you would like to see the move on this, but I don't. It's going to be an interesting theory contest. Ryan Wilson. Thank you so much for finally coming on bird noises coming on this podcast. And you know, one thing I ask all the guests here and I'm just going to ask you because you're just I you always make me laugh. What do you think of the name bird noises? You know, it's funny. It reminds me of I think there's a segment in PR on Fridays called bird noises and serious. They I think it's called bird noise at the check because sometimes during the car you're driving and literally a guy playing bird noises and telling you about them. So that's the first thing I thought about it. So that's pretty funny. I was I haven't heard the intro. You should have bird noises to start the we do every time we say the word bird noises. It's like that Falcon screech in the stadium. Oh, so is this Sam's job? He has to put in the bird noises every time. He's fine. That's okay. He's our producer. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no. Sam thought he was done and right here Sam bird noises. He's they're going button button button. Um, do you like it then? You like the name? And of course you listen to NPR. Yeah, of course you do. That was that was the easiest layup of the conversation. Hey, great seeing you. Always great talking to you. Thank you, Matt. It was a lot of fun, brother. Hey, Falcons fans. Matt to be here. I have a special announcement today after four years as the digital managing editor at landfalcons.com. And the great people, the Atlanta Falcons and the great people of Georgia welcoming me and my family to Georgia. They say all good things must come to an end. And it's with a very, very heavy heart that I sign off for the last time on bird noises. And this is my final week here. No more straight from the beak. No more to be takes. No more wildly important power rankings. No more mock drafts. But I have had an absolute blast getting to know all of you. Reading your letters. Not going to get choked up. Reading your letters. Seeing your pictures. People all over the world. We've sent care packages. We've sent tickets. We've sent hope. Hopefully we've made Falcons fans for life. That was the number one priority for me when I came in was to get to know you, excite you about the Falcons, make you feel like you're part of this with me every single morning over coffee. I loved every minute of it. But I got opportunities in front of me and life is full of change and you have to embrace it. And so there's been a lot of change the last year. And COVID is affected as all and we've all had personal losses me with my father. And you just look at life a little bit differently. And it's hard, but it's a part of life. And I just want you to know that I love you all and appreciate you all and will miss you all. But I will be like I always have been a huge Atlanta Falcons fan rooting for you all. And I hope you all stay in touch with me on Twitter and on social media. Send me notes. I'll still make predictions. I'll still talk to you. But I will always miss you and forever be grateful for all the love and support you've shown me. Thank you.