 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network EPL match week three is just around the corner And it is our time to see if we can get Austin cast to cool off because he is 4 and 0 so far an EPL picks here for the show But as always it's not sustainable to do that stuff So we're gonna set realistic expectations for Austin But then also still pick his brain and hope he can get to 6 and 0 for this week EPL match week number three talk some NASCAR a Daytona and Formula one in the Netherlands This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Austin cast You can check him out on Twitter at Austin cast He is a senior editor for Fandall research Austin again 4 and 0 to open this year So kudos to you on that's how you doing today I'm doing well. I'm doing well. Thanks for having me back. Absolutely. It's great to have you here and You know hot start so far but we're going to keep real like we're going to keep expectations in check and But I got to know before we get into things how you feeling about match week number three Uh, yeah, I'm really excited. Uh, it feels like these first two weeks of phone by but Yeah, everything's been great on my embedding lies, which it's it's hard to just enjoy it when it's good And not think about well that probably means I'm going to have some bad weekends, but Yeah, the first two weeks have been really fun. Yeah, it's important to keep in mind that we go through streaks good and bad And it's important to not get uh, not totally abandon your process when things go poorly and not get over confident when things get too Good, so we're going to talk about talk to Austin about match week three dig into Big match in the slate and get you ready for all that here in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We broke down college football week zero with dr. Ed fang yesterday here on the show got his thoughts on Notre Dame navy talk other week zero games and a heisman bet that ed likes right now as well You can find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find it up on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus and fandal tv plus now available on desktop mobile By going to fandal dot com slash walk so no longer just available on uh apple Amazon fire apple tv or oku. You can now find it on Online by going to fandal dot com slash watch login with your fandal account to stream fandal tv watch up in adams And also check out the solo shot and covering the spread Let's dig in now to match week number three austin The headline match this weekend is new castle hosting liverpool new castle um Slight favorites in this game, but it does seem like it's a pretty tightly contested match up here new castle's money line Is plus 115 a fandal sportsbook liverpool plus 200 and a draw is plus 280 So i want to get your initial thoughts on this match. Uh, what do you see going down in this big headliner on sunday? So we've uh written with new castle a few times over the past year plus and i'm gonna stick with them. Um, i'm on then Their money line at plus 115 it should be a really fun match But i think new castle are the better side and once you factor in the home field advantage I really like getting new castle at plus money Going by fb refs expected goal model new castle was a good bit better than liverpool last season new castles xg differential was plus 32.4 and liverpools was plus 21.7 New castle was really really good at home a year ago They had the e pl second best home xg differential at plus 27.7 and gave up just 14 goals and 19 home matches So far this year is just two weeks, but new castle have pretty much been Uh, the same team they were last year. They've been better than liverpool have been Uh, new castle played at home versus villa in a match where we cashed a bet on them And they've played at city against villa. They amassed 3.3 xg and won five to one Then they put up a pretty good fight at city last week. Uh, kept the defending champs to just 1.0 xg The last time city was held To one xg or less in a home match was back in 2022 versus chelsea So new castle struggled and attacked that match and barely generated anything But defensively they showed that they have what it takes to hold one of the best teams in european check so I think new castle is one of the best teams in premier league I think they're going to take all three points against the liverpool side. There's still a work in progress Especially in midfield. So I like the chance to get new castle at plus 115 Yeah, that's in the money line for new castle to win at this match plus 115 in the Or the the market where there is a draw included. So new castle plus 115 there You know, and I talked about new castle having A bit of a larger home field than other teams may have How much stock do you put into that because we know that home field can be bigger for Some teams versus others and how much does that matter for you knowing that some teams might get more juice You know, how much of a factor is that for you given that the dimensions in soccer for every stadium are going to be the exact same Yeah, so soccer fields are actually different sizes. It's it's similar to baseball There's like certain guidelines that have to be within but the width of the pitch can be different So there's some really big like the playing regulation like the regulation size can be different. That's crazy Okay, how a baseball field can be with the outfield So yeah, some teams I think Sulphur's park or crystal palace plays is a smaller field Old trafford remain united plays as a much bigger field Ann field whatever cool plays is a really small field but just in terms of size of like seating capacity new castles one of the bigger in the league and They really have a raucous crowd. I would I don't know what really to compare it to because they're A team they're a big club anyone for sure one of the biggest But they've really struggled the last like 20 years and the fan base knows they've got it back now They've got new ownership as well. That's got a lot of money to spend so They're probably the happiest fan base in the league outside of man city's fan base. So They've made that st. James park a real fortress and it's difficult to know how much the factor that in with betting For me, I just feel like new castles been undervalued for like 12 months now at the shirt. I think we've talked about them and then in match week one maybe where It just feels like on paper They shouldn't be this good and that they're over shooting But the samples large enough now that it seems like they're really this good And in Liverpool's super volatile team They probably should be better on paper than what they have been but the pieces just don't fit well right now And I think When you factor all that together plus the home field advantage I really like the chance to get new castle out and plus money I feel enlightened now did not know that they could have different sized pitches So, uh, this is this is why you're the etl expert. I'm just here asking the questions Apparently asking them incorrectly, but hey, I feel a lot smarter now. So we're on new castle plus 115 Taking on a Liverpool on Sunday But also there are a bunch of other matches nine other matches across match week number three Where else to see value right now over at Fandle? Um, I see some value with Manchester City in their match against Sheffield United I like city to go over two and a half goals Um Which was plus 100 last I checked City have won, uh, both of their matches so far, but really haven't been At their scintillating best in attack Um, they failed to tally 2.0 x g in either match I think we see their high flying attack come back on Sunday morning against Sheffield United We touched on Sheffield United already They came into the year looking like a side that was destined to get relegated They've done nothing through two weeks to make odds makers or me think otherwise They're priced at minus 240 to be relegated They've lost the x g battle 1.9 to 0.5 And 1.4 to 0.5 through two matches with crystal palace and nottingham forest Palace and forests are likely to finish at best in the bottom half of the table And maybe in like the bottom six or seven So sheffield united were overmatched in those pictures They're going to be in a lot of trouble against man city On sunday so city are 600 to win of minus 600 to win Which i'm not touching i'm somewhat interested in city's first half moneyline price of minus 180 Especially if 10 or 15 minutes go by and you can live bet it and that number drops But i think the best route Before the match to get exposure to city is the plus 100 on over two and a half goals Yeah, as you mentioned, that's even money for a city to score over two and a half goals That is currently a fangirl sports book If you go to the goals tab a way team over under two and a half goals even money on the over is what you can find right now now Again, i'm asking you to educate me. This is just my crash course Having you illustrate everything for me when i have a a mismatch like this in other sports I worry sometimes that a team will take their foot off the gas pedal now Scoring three goals may not account may not be that But like the concern is do they need to go all out in this kind of game? So how much does gold differential matter when it's not against a team that you're expecting to be? Anywhere nearer the table towards the end of the year doesn't matter to like this overall Gold differential matter for a team like man city or how does that dynamic play out when it's such a lopsided match up at this point in the year? Yeah, it's a great question So it can matter if at the end of the season man city was tied with say arsenal on points Then the champion would be awarded based on gold differential It's obviously unlikely that they would tie on points and that would factor in But it it is somewhat of a factor With city, they're just really ruthless Um in the first match of the year they were playing at burnley which was a side that's just been promoted City has is coming off winning the trouble um I think if anything there would be maybe some fear that city just in general would let their foot off the gas this year Going into halftime. They're up by multiple goals. I think it was 2-0, but maybe it was 3-0 and early holland and pep guardiola their manager and their star striker Got into an argument coming off the field at halftime because holland wasn't doing what pep wanted them to do And that's just the culture that city have like it reminds me a little bit of If you remember in alabama in the national champion game against Notre Dame I think it was mccarran in the center got in an argument when they were just strove on him That's just how they are and holland is just starved for goals I don't think it matters what the score is that he will He wants to score more So it's it's somewhat of a fair comment if they're up 2-0 late in the game They might just pass it around a little bit chef and I had to chase them around but for the most part The top teams just want to score and they just want to keep scoring And they are capable of doing so too the aspen villa one you had last week It was over one and a half goals and they did that in the 24th minute So hopefully we can get the man city one 24th minute might be greedy for over two and a half goals, but you never know We'll see how things play out for them on uh for their match that is on saturday or sunday for that one I think it's sunday at nine. Yeah, so both on sunday for the man city one over two and a half goals at Even money and then also the new castle money line at plus 115 That is austin cas make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cas find his work over at fandal research austin I know again. We're not going to set expectations too high. We want to be realistic here But good luck to you bp all bets across the second week and we'll talk to you again in the very near future Sounds good. Thank you jim Alrighty again find awesome on twitter at austin cas to get all his work over at fandal research We're going to dive in talk some NASCAR at Daytona and formula one in the netherlands here in just one second But first get ready for the nfl season with incredible offers from fandal america's number one sports book right now new customers Can bet five dollars and get 200 dollars in bonus bets guaranteed plus all customers who bet five dollars will get $100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube and youtube tv Now is the best time to join fandal the app is easy to use and you can be on everything from spreads player props and more Fandall official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement With kansas star casino llc first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is non-ladrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply c terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee in virginia Call 1 800 next step or tax next step defy 3 3 4 2 in arizona 180 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in kinetican 1 809 with it in indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at oregon maryland visit 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia Call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts Call 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open y in new york nfl sunday ticket offers offer ends 9 18 23 no refunds terms and embargoes apply $100 off nfl sunday ticket not youtube tv youtube tv base plan required to watch youtube tv Redemption requires a google account and current from a payment commercial use is excluded Now it's time to talk some racing forward this weekend didn't have time to run my Accident simulations before today We'll post those up on fandal research later on those if you want some thoughts on Accident at Daytona or the truck series at milwaukee check those out on fandal research later on this weekend Let's begin things by talking about some NASCAR at Daytona It is the final race of the regular season this week Which means that we got a lot of desperation cheese sally at the favorite of fandal sports book He is 11 to 1 so Things pretty spread out there. I do think it's worth considering motivation for this week because some drivers have Extra motivation to win some drivers have motivation to aid teammates, you know Kyle larson if he were to actually finish a restrictor play race would probably be helping chase elliott or augs bowman denny hamlin has said he wants to push bubble balls to a win to get the 23 11 team into the owners Playoffs as well. So like motivation does matter a bit and I think that the two bets I like most this week over at fandal sports book do properly account for that. Let's begin with the more fun one That is an outright on a guy who is currently Pretty far outside the playoff Discussion and we'll need to win in order to advance the playoffs that guy's eric jones Who is 35 to 1 at fandal sports book the implied odds there are 2.8 percent I have jones at 3.2 percent. It's not a huge edge there But I do agree with what the model is saying and that jones may be undervalued here jones as I passed a tone of winter Of course that was back in his days with joe gibbs racing. So it's been a while but Ever since they switched to the next-gen car We've seen jones be very competitive on pack tracks They've run 10 races in the next-gen era with this car and jones has finished inside the top six In four of those races in talladega last spring He was leading on the final lap before getting shuffled back to sixth. I had him at 70 to 1 for that race So oh well move on to the next one. But I think it to me it does show Despite the fact he has not won here in a while He does have the upside to do so even in this new car Of course legacies cars this year are not as good But even this year he had nath place finish in atlanta where he went from like 20th to eighth in one lap I had a top 10 bet on him for that race. So that was great And in talladega this year finished sixth once again Daytona probably going to be a bit of a rec fest. It tends to be that so we got the desperation factor It is warmer during the summer which factors into that as well. So I think a lot of factors align To make a team like legacy capable of winning for this week His teammate josh berry is not eligible for the playoffs So no motivation for him to win for himself Legacies in a weird spot where they will not get help from chevy because they're switching to toyota next year. So Kind of a lone ranger out there But I do think jones makes a lot of sense 35 to 1 as a win bet for this week all things considered So eric jones a guy been on for most pack tracks recently back on him once again for this week 35 to 1 at vandal sportsbook other bet is a podium bet and I do show value on kevin harvick to win this race. So you could consider him He's 30 to 1 at vandal. I think you can get as long as like 45 some other spots So maybe if you can get that longer than 30 on harvick. I took him 35 to 1 personally Got that somewhere else, but 30 at vandal sportsbook Not quite long enough. I'd rather go with the podium bet on harvick if we can get him at 10 to 1 and There is value there for me to actually a little bit better value I have harvick at 11.2 percent to podium versus 9.1 percent implied at vandal sportsbook at 10 to 1 So the data aligns here But also anecdotally because harvick is the lone steward haas racing car locked into the playoffs right now Which means eric amarola chase briscoe and ryan priest are all going to need help in order to get a win And get another s h r car into the playoffs now Would harvick Give up a win in his final race at detona as a full-time driver to help a teammate win I would hope not Harvick won the only or the the first nas car cup series race. I went to the 2007 detona 500 So he can win here and I hope that he actually like is selfish and tries to win this race because it's a better story It's more fun And I'd rather see him win so I don't know if he'd push them to a win, but there's always that concern And you could also concern about harvick's upside because he has not been good on these tracks during the next gen era No finishes better than 10th. He's had Like in atlanta this year. It had a really weird like brain fart and wrecked himself and denny denny hamlin So I think age is showing for harvick and maybe you're concerned he can't win But you get two additional spots of the podium bet. So that's that's beneficial there I think that that leeway does matter a bit. So I think the podium bet is better for harvick than for than the outright He has been running well in these races. He's had a top 15 average running position in seven out of 10 races so does run towards the front he Doesn't need points this week because he's already I guess he does in terms of like, you know In terms of playoff points and stuff like that But I think he has motivation to win and motivation to help his teammates Both those do work well for a podium bet So harvick a 10 to 1 to podium my preferred market for him again If you can get 35 or longer on the outright, maybe that's the better way to go for harvick But with where things stand right now, I'd rather go 10 to 1 to podium instead of 30 to 1 to win for harvick So the two NASCAR bets I like for daytona eric jones 35 to 1 and kevin harvick at 10 to 1 Let's finish up here by talking about some formula one in the netherlands coming off of a very long summer break It always feels like the summer break for formula one is excruciating But they are back this week and sounds like Mercedes will have some upgrades for this week I'm not going to bet them to win because I don't show value on that Because it is very hard to make a team to get a team to top red bull in the model right now So not going there not seeing a lot of value in red bull either So I'm going to avoid outrides for this week instead I want to dip A bit lower in the order and talk about some markets down there The two bets that I like most for this week are carlos signs to finish inside the top six of plus 115 And daniel ricardo to finish them inside the top 10 at plus 4 10 Starting with the top 10 market or the top six market signs is plus 115 His teammate charles leclerc is minus 250 here And of course, you also have the mcclaren cars laminaris is minus 440 and oscar piazza is minus 250 I think the level of confidence in ranking all those drivers above signs is A bit misplaced I have signs at 50 to finish inside the top six his implied odds are 46.5 percent obviously The reason we're getting this discount on signs quote-unquote discount is because of the emergence of mcclaren Which means we have two red bulls two Mercedes Uh two mcclaren's and two ferraris fighting for the top six. Maybe you put aston martin in there But I've got uh both signs and leclerc ahead of both aston martin's right now If we zero in on just the four races since mcclaren had their big upgrades So three races for laminaris and or four races for norris three for oscar piazz tree Signs in those races has finished sixth tenth eighth and 19th so Just one top six in that time and no finishes better than six but Before he had an incident during the race at spa so looking at the weekend the sprints and stuff like that Signs did have pretty good speed there. Just had an issue during the race Leclerc finished third in that one So I feel like ferrari does still have speed and it's good enough speed to keep them At least in contention with mcclaren Leclerc again is ahead of signs so that doesn't matter But I have signs ahead of both both aston martin cars and honestly not that far behind the two mcclaren's I feel like this is a full tier here of norris piazz tree Leclerc and signs maybe put george russell in that tier as well as being all guys Kind of grouped together who has somewhat similar expectations for finishes For this weekend So getting signs a plus 115 at the bottom end of that tier to me is pretty enticing There is risk here obviously because you know, it's also 50 to lose based on my model But it is a value. So I've got signs are on even money for a top six is implied odds Whereas odds right now are plus 115 So I'll take that discount and take signs to finish inside the top six for this weekend as mentioned the other bet is on riccardo to finish inside the top 10 and You may be groaning given I was pretty high on riccardo heading into spa He had a lap deleted during qualifying qualified 19th, and I believe finished 16th During this race never really got close to finishing inside the points, but the speed was still okay, and obviously I have the prior that I began with the year with on riccardo still in my model So we've only had two races on him that prior was pretty low I had him below yuki sunota for my prior because Wasn't great at mcclaren hadn't driven the car all year. I thought there might be a Kind of ramp up period for riccardo. So that low prior was still in there for riccardo But when you factor in the speed that he showed the past two races It's pretty good looking at riccardo. He had similar speed to yuki in spa despite starting 19th So racing behind some slower cars still pretty good speed there and yuki finished inside the points there and riccardo had much better speed than sunota in his first race back And He just got put in a hole in both those races had an incident that was not his own doing in the first race And then I had the lap lead which was his fault in spa and that could happen again for sure but He hasn't had the time to recover from those incidents if you can have a clean weekend I think that riccardo is definitely a pretty good shot to finish inside the points I think the speed is there and That's the the big factor here. So Hopefully riccardo has had more time to get comfortable with this car. Hopefully that allows us to avoid the mistakes like the Like the the lap position that he had back in spa I do think the model that I have is too high on riccardo right now But I also think the mod that the market is too low riccardo's implied odds for a top 10 at Plus 410 are 19.6 percent. I've gotten pretty well clear of that. So I'm okay going to riccardo plus 410 despite the fact it did not work out this past week like looking at the The top 10 odds riccardo well behind sunota I don't think that should be the case based on these first two races He's well behind the two alpha romeo cars as well You know, I don't think that should be the case So daniel riccardo plus 410 for a top 10 and carlo signs plus 115 for a top six The two bets I like most for this weekend in formula one That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread But we are back with you once again tomorrow We're gonna jj. Zachary sonon of late round com to talk about his favorite season-long player props for this year And also talk about his process for making projections Finding players who can outperform projections and much more So find that on the cover in the spread podcast feed along with our week in zero college football preview Wherever you get your podcast and fandal tv Fandal tv plus and the fandal youtube page as well big. Thank you once again to austin cast check him out on twitter at Austin cast find his work over at fandal research. I am on twitter at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talking some player props to the jj This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network