 This is Looking to the East. I'm your host Steve Zerger. I'm a professor of Management and Dean at Kansai Gaida University. Welcome to our show. This show covers a variety of different topics looking primarily at Japan but Asia Pacific as a whole. Today we'll be doing a show specifically about the upcoming Olympics. The Olympics which will start, who everyone's assuming will start in 11 days from now in Tokyo. This has been a very controversial process. The Olympics were originally scheduled to occur last summer but because of COVID the pandemic, the IOC and I guess to some extent Japan decided to delay the Olympics to 2021 which is what now is coming up will be seen potentially in 11 days. I invited two guests today. Unfortunately one is not with us. Perhaps he will join us mid-show. That's Jim Allen. He's been on the show before. He's a long-term long-term journalist focusing on sports and in particular in baseball. He also has very strong opinions about Japan hosting the Olympics so I invited him for that reason but we do have fortunately Jake Adelstein with us and Jake also has very strong opinions about the upcoming Olympics. Those of you that are viewing this show in Japan, you already know who Jake is. He's quite famous. Jake was the first foreign correspondent for the U-Muty newspaper which is the number one newspaper in Japan. Tremendous circulation. His beat was investigating crime and particularly he focused on the underworld activities in Japan. He is a reporter for the Daily Beast. I've seen his articles in many other publications so widely published, very famous for covering a variety of different topics. Jake, thank you so much for waking up early up in Tokyo and joining us for this show. Just very briefly before we begin our discussion with Jake is I want to talk about the history of the Olympics. I addressed it a little bit in my opening but Japan has gone through the pandemic process as Hawaii has in the United States and every country worldwide. I think the general perception of sure Jake would agree with me on this is that the government was kind of late in recognizing the impact that the pandemic had on Japan. This is going back to February, March last year. There was a sense that I began to feel even back at that time that because the Olympics was such an important event to the Japanese government and to various Japanese businesses, the news was not accurately reported. The infection rates were not covered thoroughly in the hopes to try and downplay the impact on the pandemic in order for the Olympics to occur. Would you agree with that, Jake? I would say it was one of the reasons that Japan has done the worst in all the countries in East Asia. Compared to the United States and Europe, you think Japan is doing well. But compared to its neighbors like Vietnam and Taiwan and Korea, Japan has the highest mortality rate. Part of that was because of this incredible reluctance to deal with the coronavirus because they wanted to host the Olympics. The governor was saying, we'll hold the Olympic sites inconceivable. They won't happen until the 23rd of March. They canceled the Olympics and then immediately she said, oh, we're going to need a lockdown. We've got a huge coronavirus crisis. And then the numbers of cases shot up the next day. It was so miraculous. You might think that they had been telling people not to get tested or discharged. Which actually Japan has done the entire time. Japan has never done widespread testing. This has been one of the criticisms. Artificially low. Right. So that takes us through the summer period. And then the drumbeat leading from last summer to now has been the pandemic will be managed and the Olympics will be safe and secure. That's the catchphrase that we've heard, I don't know, thousands of times from all the government officials and that it will occur and the general public will not be at risk. But so let's fast forward now to just the last few weeks or so. Unfortunately, Japan is in its fourth state of emergency. So the prime minister just recently, Mrs. Suga announced that Japan is Tokyo is under this state of emergency. That means that various activities are being curtailed. Drinking establishments are being closed or are being told that means I could I could not get a beer with my with my steak last night. That's what that means. Yeah. So you could go out. Is the restaurants are they closing early? They're closing early. Everything closed. Yeah. Okay. So under the state of emergency, various restrictions are in place. But at the same time, the Olympics will be occurring. So there's this type of mixed message. The Tokyo is under a state of emergency. Please don't drink beer. Please don't go to large gatherings and so forth. But yet at the same time, we're going to hold post the Tokyo Olympics. So this creates the kind of challenge in trying to understand all of this. Why are these Olympics occurring right now? So Jake, this is one thing I want to ask you. I think if an impartial viewer was to look at the situation in Japan, the fact of bringing 80,000 people into the country, that's the estimate. That's those people who are the athletes and the supporters and so forth. And pretty much in a way that they're not being quarantined, right? They're kind of coming in under a special exception, bringing that number of people into a region where there already is a state of emergency and activity is being curtailed in order to try and protect the local citizens from the spread of the infection. Why is this happening? Well, what is your opinion about it, Jake? You have to look at it this way. I mean, it's kind of like a bad gamblers, right? We have the Japanese government, you have Abe and Suga who are essentially the same people like Batman and Robin, the Batman Robin of poor government and corruption. Japan is, you know, from very early on, they invested $2 million in bribes to secure the Olympics. And that's according to the French authorities. And there's a lot of graft and money that goes to the sponsors and everyone involved in the Olympics. It's a huge money-making proposition. And there's just this stubborn idea that they would rather save face than save lives. It's like we're in it. We said we're going to do it. And if we pull out now, it will be more humiliating than holding it and having it be a disaster. Japan just does not seem to be able to change past once it starts heading down it. I mean, I haven't heard the word safe and secure so much in the years up to the Fukushima nuclear meltdown when everyone was talking about the nuclear industry. Even the safe and secure. Even though there were several horrible accidents that everyone has forgotten along the way to the big one that should have told you that, you know, you cannot trust Japan with nuclear power. This nuclear toys are not appropriate for this government. Yeah, that's a topic for an entirely other show. But I certainly agree with you about that. But there are parallels. Definitely. This is Fukushima's nuclear action happening in slow motion, right? Everyone, all the metaflexpers have warned you, don't do this. Don't bring these people into Japan. You know, Japan already has a lot of what is called the Indian variant. But you have a lot of Delta, which is much more infectious. And it seems to be more lethal. We don't have the Lambda variant yet from Peru. We don't have this one from California. Japan has its own variant, which is called Kobe variant. But holding the Olympics right now. It's called Kobe variant? That's where I live, Jake. Yeah, it's totally called a Kobe variant. But I think after we spread it to the rest of the world, we'll call it the Tokyo Olympic variant. There may be the Suga variant. Okay. Wow. Yeah, so a couple other factors that need to be mentioned here is that Japan, unfortunately, has been very slow, I mean, extremely slow to roll out the vaccines. The push for that basically started just a couple of months ago. And that may also be Olympic related, Jake. I don't know if you connect the dots on that as well, that the infection rates didn't seem to be going down and the Olympics were coming up. So the Japanese government said, okay, we need to start ramping up the vaccinations. But unfortunately, the Japan is running out of vaccines. So this is another huge disappointment. That's one factor. And then another factor, too, that I didn't mention in kind of the overview of this, is that the Japanese government has decided to disallow any spectators to attend any of the Olympic events, not only in Tokyo, but in the surrounding regions as well. These are other kind of mixed messages. The Olympics will be safe and secure. But by the way, you can't go to see them. I thought they're still debating whether they're surrounding regions. Like as of yesterday, I think I read that the Chiba and other prefectures now are also going to follow the dictates from Tokyo. But again, I'm not 100% certain about that. Most of the events for our viewers are going to occur in the Tokyo area, but 95% plus. 95%. So I think that in the surrounding areas, it changes so fast. I mean, they flip off so fast that it's kind of hard to keep track of what's going on. But yes, Tokyo will definitely have no spectators. But the problem is that they have, after saying safe and secure, and it'll be in a bubble, this multiple problems is they haven't vaccinated the volunteers. There are thousands of volunteers that are doing this. There are thousands of bus drivers that are taking these, well, hundreds of bus drivers taking people in and out of these events. They're not vaccinated. You have athletes coming from the United States who have said, I am not getting vaccinated because it will affect my score. I see. There's a swimmer who proclaimed that. There have been athletes already who arrived who supposedly are vaccinated and tested negative and then arrived in Japan tested positive. But of course, on the way here, they infected other people. So one of the issues is can this go well? Well, it's possible that it goes well, that somehow they managed to pull it off. But if you get one case of the Lambo variant here and you start seeing a huge infection from that, and these other variants haven't made it into Japan yet, then everyone is going to blame the Olympics and rightly so. Yeah. So let's look at those two scenarios. If things just turned into a disaster, let's say, for example, the viewership for the Olympics is down, which is possible because I think the world is somewhat aware of the circumstances here in Japan. It is the Olympics and there is broad interest in this. I'm not particularly a big fan of the Olympics, by the way, but my family members are. And let's say also the health considerations become a new story. So rather than Japan wins the baseball gold medal, it's 400 people are infected in Tokyo, 400 additional people because of the spread of the virus specifically tied to the Olympics. Whether I don't know how the media will handle that because there is complicity on the part of the media in terms of trying to downplay the actual statistics on the pandemic. We've seen that over the last year and a half. So anyway, that's one scenario. And then the other scenario that you just mentioned is that somehow, some way they are able to contain this and the health repercussions are minimal, maybe only a dozen people or something like that. I'm just guessing off the top of my head. So those two scenarios, what do you see the ramifications for each of those? Well, first of all, let's discuss the realistic possibilities of things going wrong. The healthcare system isn't overburdened yet, but in Osaka, where they had a huge outbreak, people were dying at home waiting to go into hospitals because there weren't enough beds. At one point, I think there were over 5,000, 6,000 people waiting to get into hospital. And sometimes they get bad quickly and then they can't take care of them. But in addition to the fact that you have coronavirus looming there and spreading rapidly, we're going to hit 1,000 people a day. That is even as Tokyo is reducing the number of people that they test every day. Generally, the number of people that are testing is going down and the number of people getting COVID are going, testing positive is going up. And they generally don't take in information from civilian centers. You have that, but you also have the beginning of the pandemic. That reminds me of the Trump solution for the COVID. It's not test. Yeah. Yeah. Remember when he said if you didn't test, you wouldn't have a problem. That's right. Exactly. It's a little bit, put the head in the sand. I'm sorry to interrupt you, but that just came back to me. But we also have this heat wave. Yesterday's heat index was about 40 degrees. I mean, so putting that in the Fahrenheit, because we still use Fahrenheit in the United States, right? It's like about 100 degrees, right? Humidity gets between 89 to 90 percent. It can go up to 98 percent. In Tokyo, we feel like you're swimming. So not only you have Tokyo, especially in July and August, burdened with all these older people needing to be heat treated for heat stroke. You're also going to have the possibility of athletes being knocked out for heat stroke. People are running these long distance races. I'm not an athlete, but you know, if the surface temperature above the asphalt or the tracks is hotter than it is in the air sometimes. So you're really running in really dangerous weather. That is something that from the very beginning is something that Tokyo has ignored. The fact that unlike their Olympic proposal, which said that July and August are ideal temperatures to hold the Olympics because the weather is mild and temperate, which everyone in Tokyo knows is a terrible, terrible lie. That's a period of time when it's like living inside of a sumo wrestler's armpit. It just even that alone could have been a detrimental effect on the Olympics. But with the coronavirus and people wearing masks and stuff, you really have a recipe for disaster there. So from your perspective, then the most likely scenario is that there are going to be some pretty severe health repercussions. I don't know if there's a connection between temperature and COVID spread. But if there is, you were commenting about my question about the connection between the heat conditions that you just described and the infection of COVID in Japan. I don't know. I remember at certain points over the last year and a half, we were told that when the temperature goes down that COVID would actually rates would go down as well. I don't know that that's actually true, but that was something that was discussed last year. But it does seem the flu rates and so forth seem to go up during these periods. Do you have any information or opinion about that? Well, it's simply that when it gets really hot, people tend to stay inside more. And when you're inside more, when it's temperatures are being outside, it's like risking heat stroke. You're in a contained area where there's less air circulation, so there is a possibility of transmissions like within offices that is greater than before. And you have this Delta variant, which is now 30% of the cases here in Japan, which is very transmissible. I mean, I think people can pass each other on the street and give it to each other. Oh boy, okay. Well, let's flip this around. We're focusing on Japan's reaction. Why are countries sending their athletes into these conditions? Why isn't America said we're not going to do this? I know before the show started, you mentioned there are some specific athletes that have announced that they will not attend the Olympics. I think Naomi Osaka, who's so famous here in Japan, will not be, or maybe she is. I can't remember now. I think she, at last I heard she was gone. She's going to attend. Roger Federer said he will not. And so there are some individual athletes that are declining to attend the Olympics. There's Bianca de Rescu, who's, I'm slaughtering her name. She's from Canada. She is not going to the Olympics and just proclaimed that on her Instagram, saying that basically saying it's not appropriate to go during the pandemic. Right. But countries are not. Well, so far as I know, Canada, Australia, Germany, they're going to send their athletes. I mean, we're 11 days before us, so I don't think they're going to reverse. Hold out. Tamola was the first one. We are all in Tokyo. We are all Samoans. 80% of us are Samoans. That's true. Why aren't the individual countries looking at this and going, we don't want to send our athletes into this potentially dangerous situation? I think that people have this belief that Japan is this wonderfully organized country. And Japan says it's safe and secure. And we've taken all these measures that there's a trust that Japan knows what they're doing. I have to admit that I thought Japan would handle this much better. Just on my general impression of the efficiency when it comes to these types of things of the government, but it's been a huge disappointment for I think everybody over the last year and a half, how all of this has been mismanaged. But you're right. Maybe the public perception is that Japan will, they're saying it's going to be safe and secure, so it'll be safe and secure. Both the games haven't even started. Athletes are arriving. You've had several athletes test positive. The reaction towards the IOC is just vilification. I have no idea that Thomas Bach knows how much he's hated here. The New York Times referred to, not the New York Times. The Washington Post referred to him as Baron von Ripperhoff in an opinion piece. In Japanese, that is, and that has taken on a new life. Like every article that mentions him, even articles that you would think be objective basically refers to him as Baron Ripperhoff in Japanese. And Hiroshima, there's now petition says, don't let him come to Hiroshima. He's going to make a visit to Hiroshima. And Hiroshima is basically saying, we don't want you here. These Olympics are supposed to be about friendship and peace. And you're not bringing friendship. You're bringing disharmony and you're bringing disease and chaos into Japan. So why would we want you? And there's a, Jake, there's a question from a viewer that came in. This is an interesting one because it talks about sexism. We can talk about Mori. So the question is the Japanese Olympic Committee has been accused of sexism and racism. Why isn't Japan trying harder to control their public image? Because Japan is run by a bunch of creepy old men. The women in power are women who generally have been women who are willing to snuggle up to these creepy old men and espouse the same views as they are in order to have sort of the power. And so they're just clueless. When the people at the top are clueless and the advertising agency, the agency they pay to manage their public images and very good at doing what they do, that's the problem. I mean, Japan is, it is sexist. I think it's 121 out of like 140 countries in the Gender Equality Index. Right. So and there's a particular instance of the former leader of the Tokyo Olympic community, a major power broker in Japanese politics, former prime minister, his name is Mori. And basically, this was what six months ago or so, Jake, he said that he felt uncomfortable having women in the meetings with him because they go on and on, they talk too much. And there was a kind of a slow build of public uproar about this. And eventually he was forced to resign and they replaced him with a prior Tokyo or Japan Olympic woman to run it. So, even within the process of managing the Olympics, sexism has surfaced through the leader of the Japanese Olympic committee. You've got, you've got Marikawa, who's you have all these competing people. You have Hashimoto, who is sort of the head of the IOC, the Japan's JOC right now. You also have a minister of the Olympics. I think it's Marikawa-san. And who says things like, the sports dedication and spirit of sportsmanship can conquer everything. No, it can't conquer an infectious disease. That doesn't work. There's so much, Japan's has a very divided leadership. And there's really no one who's willing to take a leadership position here. And the IOC has run over the country. I mean, just, you know... Oh, I haven't thought about it that way, but the IOC probably figured out quickly they can do whatever they want. Yes, they can do whatever they want. And, you know, Bak is staying at, you know, of course, a five-star hotel. Everyone in the IOC gets treated like a VIP. And meanwhile, athletes, I think, are eating cup ramen in the room, some of them, because they're not allowed to go out. All right. I want to let the viewers know that I did do a show back in April with Roy Tomozawa, who is a very pro Olympic supporter, has actually written a book. So I have created a show that was supported by the Olympics. Back then it was Will the Olympics occur and he was hoping that it would and it looks like they will. But this show definitely we're taking the counterpoint of view. So we only have a few more minutes left, Jake. As always with these shows, the time flies by. Again, I appreciate your candidness and your opinion. But the last question I have for you, because you've lived in Japan for a long time, longer than me. I've been here a long time and we've observed these disasters, at least in this case, a potential disaster. And the response from the Japanese population generally is, oh yeah, this is not good, but things really don't change. The same party has been in control pretty much uninterrupted since the end of World War II. And we had the nuclear disaster, which you and I were talking about prior to the show rolling. That was a huge, you know, there are 10,000 of people died there and the area where the nuclear meltdown occurred is still uninhabited and no one can move in there. So that was a huge, huge failure on the part of the government. But yet things really fundamentally did not change. So my question for you is that given the COVID response for the Japanese government and the fact that 80% of the people recognize that this is not something, the Olympics in particular, not something that they want to see happen, will this, after it finishes, whether the worst case scenario occurs or maybe a more milder case occurs, will this fundamentally change the Japanese people's relationship to government? Do you think that this will be a catalyst or trigger point for Japanese people to view government differently and perhaps have fundamental changes in how this country is run as a result of the Olympics disaster? It's spurring that movement. Now keep in mind that in 2009, the Liberal Democratic Party was so corrupt. This was after Abbey and Abbey had served its first term and others had done similar things. The government changed into the Democratic Party of Japan. Unfortunately, they inherited the nuclear policy of the people before them so when the reactor melted down, they got all the blame. And now there is really no opposition party on its own that is strong enough to take a majority. Public support for Suga has hit an all-time blow. The Liberal Democratic Party, which is the ruling party of Japan for a long time, is losing support rapidly. So if it's a disaster, there is a chance for change. The problem is there's nobody really ready to step up the path. But if all the various tiny parties can get together and form a coalition, and that would have to include the Communist Party of Japan, which is more like a socialist party, yeah, you might see change. I will see. I'm an American so we look at our politics. We have nothing to be proud of over the last five or six years. But I look at the Japan political situation. I always hope for there to be a more positive response to these and perhaps a sense of wanting to change things because it doesn't seem to be working. But we'll see. So that leads me to this thought that maybe sometime in fall we can do a review show and take a look at actually what happened and then what changes. I'll be happy to invite you, Jake, again, that and maybe Jim can join us or other people you suggest. Or maybe we can get a pro-Olympics guy as well so we can have kind of a point counterpoint discussion on this. Here's my final thought on the Olympics. It's going to be a disaster whether it's a gold medal disaster, silver medal disaster, or bronze medal disaster is really the question. All right. Jake, thanks so much for attending. Really appreciate it. Nice to meet you virtually through Zoom and thank you all for watching my show and I'll be on again in two weeks and we're covering another topic related to Looking to the East. Thanks everyone and thank you once again, Jake. Really appreciate it. Bye-bye everyone.