 We believe that working together with local, national, and international actors more to scale up our successful efforts, particularly on dialogue and reconciliation, to tackle Iraq's problems moving forward. With the support of our Iraqi and American partners, we are committed to a transition strategy to further the stability of our peacebuilding programs and institutions through Iraqi leadership. As Iraq tackles its current challenges and prepares for the 2014 elections and it works to secure a better future for the Iraqi people, the U.S. Institute of Peace remains committed to working through the transition into a reliable and to be a reliable partner for Iraq. Now I'd like to give the floor to Les Campbell, the NDI Senior Associate and Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa to also say a few words and then we will turn to our panel. Great. Thank you very much, Manel, and we want to thank USIP for allowing NDI's country director, Elvis Zutich, to be here today to present the findings of a recent poll. We've worked closely with USIP. Since 2003, I would actually echo Manel's statement that even though it's fallen off the radar to some extent these days, Iraq that NDI has been involved since June 2003, it's something we take very seriously. And despite what you may read in the news, we actually think there's lots of good news. And in fact, as I'm standing here, I see Rockman Al-Jabouri who is now with the National Endowment for Democracy who was NDI's first country director in 2003. So there's a lot of history. I won't steal Elvis thunder today, but the message that we'd like to get across and the message that I try to get across to any audience when I talk about Iraq is that if you can get beyond the day to day headlines, which unfortunately here in the West tend to be about the worst news, the car bombings and violence and so on, which is certainly a big concern and certainly something important. But if you get beyond the headlines, there is a lot going on inside the country that seldom sees western media coverage. And one of those things is the, I think the amazing normalcy of Iraq politics were about to head into an election. The election's not getting a lot of coverage, but there's a lot of excitement in Iraq about an election. Iraq has had now a history of well-received elections, elections that have passed international muster. There have been great difficulties after elections in forming governments. And I hope that the international community this time can try to exert some constructive help to make sure that the post-election period doesn't turn negative. But there's a lot to be hopeful about and Elvis will go through the results of a recent poll. But I find Iraqi politics, despite all of the other problems to be remarkably normal. And by that I mean that Iraqis are looking for their leaders to present constructive solutions to their problems. They're looking for their leaders to address those problems within government. And if they do so, Iraqis tend to respond to those leaders as much as you would see in any other country. So I'm going to leave it at that. Elvis Zutich has been with NDI for many, many years. I think you're going to find his presentation incredibly interesting. He also was based in Baghdad. We've been a base in Baghdad as well since 2003. Worked very closely with Ambassador Khalizad during his tenure in the country. And so Elvis is going to draw on the poll, the recent poll. But he's also drawing on, as I am right now, well over a decade of very, very intense grassroots work with political parties, with parliamentarians and civil society groups. So it's not just about a poll. It's also about insights that are going from this long history in Iraq. So again, thank you, Manal and USIP. And I'll leave it at that. All right. And we'll turn the floor directly to you, Elvis. Would you like to? I think, because I need to see the slides. Okay, let's leave them there. Warm greetings, everybody, from the much warmer Iraq than what the DC is these days. Quite windy and cold here. Didn't expect that. As Les said, my name is Elvis Routich, and I am currently country director for NDI Iraq, based both in Erbil and Baghdad. I will present you the most important slides or information from the most recent public opinion poll we conducted in Iraq. The time of the poll was end of January, to be more specific, 22nd of January. We completed the field work beginning of March, on the 8th of March. And the information I am going to present you obviously applicable for this particular time. For the purposes of the poll, and by the way, this is the eighth poll that NDI is contacting in Iraq since 2010, we do organize Iraq into four major regions. Baghdad as a province being region number one. Then we have a south region that includes Vasi, Tikar, Najaf, Muthana, Basra, all these provinces from Baghdad down to Basra. Then we have west, which is Anbar, Nineveh, Diyala, Salah, Hadim, and Kirkuk. And finally, we have north, which includes three Kurdish provinces, Suli, Erbil, and Dahuk. Since 2010, we have a battery of questions that we ask and track the trend to see how the mood and situation changes in Iraq. And I will present you the slides in pretty much your information in the three distinctly group. First one is the general information about the state of affairs in Iraq. The second group of information are closely related to democracy and elections in Iraq. And I will conclude my presentation with information that I would like to share with you about the key issues and solutions for those issues from the perspective of Iraqis. The last set of information is particularly important because of that is what we emphasize in our work with the partner parties. We do let them know what Iraqis believes are the solutions and then we advise our partner parties in defining their issue based policies in developing messages when we are doing trainings for the candidates. That's the emphasis of our, let's say, poll when we conduct the poll just before the elections. So to continue, the first slide I want to present to you is information about the country direction. 41% currently of Iraqis believe Iraq is going in the right direction, which is pretty much within the line what we see since 2010. There was a peak down in September 2013 and mostly I believe that is as the reflection on the provincial election results, especially the late elections in Nineveh and Anbar that actually occurred only in June, while the provincial elections occurred in April. So I believe people were not happy first with that fact with the late elections and secondly I believe people had different expectations in terms of the outcome of the provincial election. So that's why I think we had this 9% decrease in terms of the right direction of the country, but right now we are back in the low 40s. What is interesting here is actually the next slide. We do see for the last several years quite distinction between the regions and the perspectives of the people depending where they're coming from. So for example, people in Baghdad and in the south usually there's a tendency to have more favorable opinion about the country direction, about issues, about general sphere of affairs. People in the West and as you know, majority of the people in the West as Sunnis do have this tendency to be a little bit negative, to be kind of I would say critical about government performances, the country as a whole and in Kurdistan as well when we ask people in Kurdistan about Iraq, they have this tendency to kind of say that in Iraq things are not going in the right direction. However, if you notice the green numbers, you can see that even in the West and in the North we see improvement, we see increase in the sentiments of the people who are saying yes, Iraq actually is going in the right direction. However, in the West we still have a strong, strong majority of 70% of the people who are saying that country is going in the wrong direction and 59% of people in Kurdistan who believe the same. In terms of the top issues, and we always ask people in your opinion what are the two top issues that government should address immediately. And we usually have these five suspects, they are changing order depending on when we ask, but security, jobs, corruption, basic services were quite high before they are not anymore. Obviously government is delivering in this particular field quite well with recently insectarianism at the top five. For the second poll in the row, we have security as the top issue. Considering what's happening in Baghdad, in Mosul, especially in Anbar, this is not a big surprise. Jobs and unemployment are always there. And as I said, corruption, sectarianism and basic services used to be in top five, they sometimes change places among themselves. You will see that in Kurdistan, this is slightly different. In Kurdistan, security is not an issue. However, corruption is a big problem in Kurdistan, as well as jobs. Then another question that we usually ask for the last four years is we ask people for the range of issues if they believe the situation or that issue is getting better or worse. As you can see all these pluses in compared to September, people do believe that on all set of issues, situation is getting better. People are getting much more optimistic about Iraq and you will see that that is strongly reflected in the slides that are coming that will address the matter of people's enthusiasm about elections, their feelings about if the elections are going to be free and fair. But you can see here that electricity supply and water supply, we have strong majorities of the people who are saying situation is getting much better. Where government is underperforming still is sectarianism and corruption. Corruption, we still have 71% of people who are saying that that particular issue is getting worse. Sectarianism, 62%. So this is something when we breathe both governing parties and those who are kind of government but in opposition as well, that is what we kind of say, please pay attention to this, try to address these issues. That is what people believe is not going well or going doing good in Iraq currently. Again when we take regional perspective, again we see big differences. We see for example that Baghdad and south are on one side of the spectrum. They are quite optimistic. They do see let's say security, 57% of Baghdadi is 68% of people in the south believe security is getting better. At the same time, 84% of the people in the west and 55% of people in north believe something completely opposite, that actually security is getting worse. We have a similar dynamic in terms of ability of Iraqi security forces to maintain security where 72% of the people in south, Basra, Wasit and stuff like that, believes that Iraqi security forces are more able to maintain security while 72% people in north and 55% people in west believe actually it's getting worse. Relations between Sunnis and Shias again divided opinion depending on where you're coming from and similar apply for the government as possible to people. What I am really kind of was not surprised but I'm very happy to see this, you know that sectarianism is the big thing currently in Iraq. So we want to test people to see if they believe sectarianism is there to stay or if they believe sectarianism in time actually will become less of the factor. And I'm very happy to see all these gray numbers majority overall accepting what is time believes in time, in time sectarianism will become less of the factor in Iraq and this is something that encourages me that helps NDI, USAIP, other organizations who are dealing with democracy development in our world. Huge, huge majority in the south believe sectarianism will disappear and we have 50% of people in Kurdistan who actually believe sectarianism is too deeply rooted and will never go away. However currently one of three Iraqis believes the same that the sectarianism is there to stay and this is something that I believe new government should pay special attention to work towards reconciliation, to work towards maybe balancing the number of sects in the army, in the public positions, government positions, etc. Now the second battery of the questions deals with democracy and elections and again us in the field of the democracy this is what we like. People in Iraq believe majority, strong majority, national wide that democracy is the best form of the government. We have only 27% of Iraqis who believe some other form other than democracy is the right form for for Iraq. You might notice a 12% drop in the north in Kurdistan for democracy and I was surprised with that to be honest with you but then I realized Kurdistan doesn't have a new government for the last six months. People had free and fair elections in November last year and negotiations over the government formations are ongoing so I believe the negative sentiments or the drop in terms of democracy feelings in the north is driven by the fact that there is no government in Kurdistan. Parliament had only one session. They came, they sworn in and that's it there is no speaker, there are no committees so pretty much you know that the KRG is in the process of this ongoing negotiations and obviously Kurds do not like that they don't appreciate that they want to see the results of what they did if they cast their vote now they want to see the government established and functioning deliver to people what they need. Again for for the people like IFAS and others who are directly involved in the elections preparations and implementations significant majority of the Iraqis believe elections are actually good for Iraq. Yes we had lots of elections and they were all good but still the enthusiasm is there and you will see the the numbers about how people feel in terms of enthusiasm but majority majority of people in Iraq believes elections as such are good for the country. This is followed with the enthusiasm as well we have 75 percent of Iraqis who are more enthusiastic about upcoming elections in compared with the previous elections. The latest one let's say in Kurdistan was in November that we had in June and April the the provincial elections so we have significant majority of people who are much more enthusiastic and you will see that will reflect on our projected turnout for the elections which is on the which will be on the slides to come. So in Baghdad and in the south people are in particularly enthusiastic not so much in the west and you will see this the best sentiments in terms of enthusiasm is reflected in very low turnout projected turnout in the west. The lowest in the country will be in the west and it will be the lowest among Sunnis. Two-thirds of Sunnis according to our poll in the west will stay at home. 33 percent of Sunnis in the west intends to go out and vote. Numbers for Turkmen, four Kurds, four Shia in the west are much higher. It goes 67 to 90 percent of projected turnout but among Sunnis again two-thirds of them plan to stay at home and again that is something that we highly stressed in our consultations with our partner parties. We send the message and said you need to do something to encourage people to vote and again I will present you with the key reasons why people say those who are not voting why they are not voting. Another encouraging thing is that a strong majority of Iraqis will respect the election outcomes regardless of who wins. We ask if your party loses are you going to respect election outcomes? They said yes. 66 percent of the people said yes. However again West 58 said sorry this is free of fear but the general people who or we poll in terms of if they're going to respect election results or not 65 in total they will but Sunnis one-third of Sunnis will not say they will they say they will not respect election outcome unless my party my block my list wins. Obviously this will be strongly influenced by the post-election dynamic and negotiations who will go where I don't believe that anyone will be able to establish the government by themselves they will have to see some sort of coalition and obviously the result of that coalition will have a huge impact on people's sentiments about if respecting or not respecting the election outcome. This is the free and fair elections again as I said majority of people believe elections are going to be fair and fair but majority of the people in the West not so they believe elections are not going to be free and fair. This is what I talked about the the results and this is this is our projection in terms of the water turnout. Based on information we were able to collect in this particular period 63 percent of Iraqis said they will go out and vote. If we turn that into numbers we have about 21 million registered voters 63 percent I believe gives us 13 million 200 plus voters who we expect to go out and vote. The highest turnout is expected to be in the north in Kurdistan then south Baghdad but then as you can see in the west we have majority of people and again significant majority of the Sunni is there who are planning to stay at the home unless political parties and the candidates encourage them to go out and vote. Major reasons for those unlikely voters why they are staying at the home we ask them why you are not voting on the first place they say if somebody could persuade me that my vote matters I would go out and vote. If security would improve for me I would go out and vote those are the top two reasons that would change their mind so inspiration like your vote matters it is important for you to go out and vote vote take destiny in your own hand and then yes we will work to arrange a safer environment for you to to vote we will maybe reduce the checkpoints you will not be able to walk for miles to the polling center that could encourage people to show us up on the election day in higher numbers. Little bit about north as you can see in Kurdistan we had in September 74 percent of people in the north who says north or Kurdistan is going the right direction. Now that's 63 percent still majority strong majority of Kurds believe Kurdistan is going the right direction but there is a drop of 11 percent and again this is the reflection of the delayed negotiations over the government foundation in the CARG and we have 33 percent of those who are currently believing Kurdistan is going in the wrong direction. Majority of these people who are saying Kurdistan is going in the wrong direction are living in Soleimaniya and majority of them are supporting Ghoran it's interesting Ghoran who was official opposition in in Kurdistan and right now they are negotiating about having Ghoran in the government they they supporters are saying that Kurdistan is currently going in the wrong direction. The issues in Kurdistan jobs on the number one 22 percent increase in compared to September and then the corruption as I said corruption is always highly rated as the top issue in Kurdistan and as you can see security is on the sixth position in terms of priority that government should focus on. Finally to conclude I have a few more slides what are the solutions for the key issues we test this as I said to help our partner parties in defining their policies and I'm very happy to tell you that we saw hard evidences right now of some of our partner parties who are presenting key policies in the publications where they are presenting their solutions for economical issues for security issues and that is I believe partly because of what all of us are currently doing in Iraq so on the first place we ask people okay security is a problem what is your opinion how security can be addressed what the government needs to do to improve security on the first place people says our army forces should be better equipped better equipment on the second place they say more training our army our soldiers need to be better trained and interestingly enough on the third position they said disband all militias all if if you you know if you are if you talk with Sunnis the disband all militias is top priority and then training and then equipment but disband all militia as well resonates well with everybody and on the fourth place is to tight border control so this is something that we advise candidates and parties to talk about when reaching towards people talk about these things say what you are going to do to provide more equipment to do more training to secure your borders and what you're going to do about these militias who are obviously recognized as a big problem in Iraq in terms of economy i was surprised to see that top two solutions selected by iraqis has nothing to do with oil first one is provide access to loans for small business owners iraqis wants to see more private initiative give us loans give us money to open our shops we don't want to depend slowly on the oil and oil revenues second solution selected by iraqis as the best one is incentives for companies who are hiring more people enable business community to hire more people give them some incentives taxation reduce whatever do something how you could encourage employment and then the oil comes etc etc so this is very interesting and again one of our partner parties do feature some of these things in their election platform when it comes to education on the first place people say you as a government need to improve the quality of teachers they are not happy with the quality of teachers lack of schools chronicle lack of schools in iraq as well third measure to improve school curriculum as well and then increase punishments for teachers who are asking bribes reduce the class size that resonates well in the north that is interesting in the north to reduce the class size apparently they have 30 30 plus kids in the in the classroom they are not happy with that they believe that should be the top priority for the next four years when talking about reforms in educational sector in terms of the health care very popular expense the medicine is too expensive to decrease the prices build more clinics and hospitals and increase availability of the medicine as a third top measure recognized by iraqis and then as a fourth one is improved overall quality of the health care and apparently there is a corruption in iraq so they say if there is a corruption politicians should focus on the central government corruption and fighting the corruption on the central federal level in Baghdad second measure popular among iraqis is to increase jail sentences for those who are far and guilty of corruption and then as a third one is okay you should maybe focus as well on the local level and tackle the corruption there last i believe two slides and i will finish is something that illustrates impact those who have impact and what people say who are those major factors what are the major factors that influence on their decision when they come in the election center who they're going to vote for the candidate him or herself is the major factor that makes a difference who people are going to vote for his or her accomplishments second major factor so i hope that iraqi lists consider this and that they have candidates actually who can say who they are and what they did in their life people want to see experienced successful candidates somebody who can say this is what i did in my life and then the party policies and then the party leader and then who has the influence no different people are talking to you different people sending messages who is the most influential who you're going to listen more when thinking who to vote for again candidates again they go back to candidates then political party then the leader then the family members and after them the religious tribal leaders media neighbors and then and an employer so i believe i hope i stay with them 20 minutes or so that is guys what i had to present to you and i'm looking forward to hear your questions and if i can i'll be more than happy to answer thank you thank you Elvis that was done very well and congratulations on the poll because it really equips us to look beyond the headlines particularly in terms of some of the things that you highlighted about improvement in the direction i think it's very hard from here to see that side you know i think it's also very interesting in terms of the issues we have in security sectarianism and corruption the last few times i've traveled to bagged out i've been told by senior iraq officials that they seek corruption is more dangerous for iraq than terrorism so it's very much at the highlight of the thinking i also really appreciated that you were able to show us that there are two very different realities to how iraq is viewed and i think again for us over here it's very hard to grapple with these two different realities and particularly how it fits geographically in iraq and you know i'm encouraged to hear that part of the training is linking the politicians and the people running with what's happening on the ground because we've seen that gap between what iraq is our feeling and then what's being represented and finally you know a key element that you highlighted that we at usap are taking very seriously is that no matter what happens with the elections it's really the next step and the coalition building and state formation that will be the true test for iraq so thank you for that and i now turn to ambassador plazaid please you have the floor thank you very much thank you very much it's a pleasure to be here and to listen to the briefing that has been given very interesting i will comment on trends as i see them and reflect on what i've heard and then also talk a little bit in the second part with regard to the implications for the elections what are we likely to see and give at least from my judgment three different scenarios that we could we could witness and their implications for the future of iraq uh like heard i believe that uh iraq has remained very important and it's unfortunate that we are not paying as much attention to it as it deserves because what happens there will impact the future of the of the of the entire region and although we have problems in ukraine and that is the pivot to asia but this region i think remains a critical region not only for the people of the area but for the future of the world first with regard to polarization which has been a problem in iraq for those of us who have dealt with it since 2003 if not before has it gotten better worse since since that time over time and i believe that that the problem of a of an absence of a consensus among iraq is on some fundamental issues persist and there have been periods where it has appeared to me at least that it has been it has improved and then periods that it looks like it has gotten worse certainly it got a lot worse after the attack on ascaria musk when i was in Baghdad uh sectarian relation got quite difficult violence increased very dramatically and the country was having was having some even argued that was in a state of civil war i disagreed with that at that time and and then with the overreach by al qaeda with the awakening movement with more u.s. security forces with increased performance better performance better numbers by iraqi forces with decision by the iraqi government to move against militias you had all of them coming together you had an improvement in security and you had the political reflection of that in my judgment in the 2010 elections where you've got uh prime minister maliki moving from his dawah party to the state of law and reaching out to non-shia elements also as part of that state of law and you had the iraqia movement of ayah the law who has been active in iraqi politics for a while since 2003 at least inside at that the also reaching out across sectarian lines and those two blocks that very well in the elections compared to others in the arab part i'll come to the sort of arab quiddish divide in a minute but what one sees in recent years two three years again looking at it qualitatively almost a deterioration in the sort of the polarization trend if you like and part of that has to do with the regional environment because of what's happening in Syria that negatively impacted iraq drawing different communities to different sides uh of of in the conflict in syria with some iraqi siding with uh the the government in syria sending militias to help it with other sympathetic to the opposition and perhaps the court staying neutral i don't know how to characterize uh uh their posture and then the second thing is the regional polarization uh in terms of in the aftermath of the u.s. withdrawal in iraq the the vacuum was filled if you like of the u.s presence by competing regional players uh uh uh iran gaining more influence uh turkey and uh and perhaps some of the arab states seeking to fill that vacuum therefore polarizing fragmenting pulling iraqis in different spheres in different directions and as a result you see in my judgment a more uh uh polarization you see more violence certainly than one had seen in the sort of 2008 to 2010 2011 period you see a growth in violence and you see a a potential repetition if you like with obviously differences of the earlier 2006 2007 period uh as as as the danger now what that's what is also bad uh in the current manifestation of polarization and this consensus uh deficit if you like is the uh uh increased distance between courts uh and the uh and the and the government in fact that as a the relationship has never been completely smooth uh uh we know from our experience federalism managing it is not easy it can uh we even had to fight the civil war uh uh but uh but it is uh now it has it has been a particularly difficult uh period uh uh uh with government at the center withholding uh funds from the region uh with the issue of the region exporting oil uh with tensions uh at times in the last couple of years along the lines of control uh and and so these the regional differences that the briefing reflected uh on on issues specific issues when you look at it sort of in a macro level in terms of how these areas interact with each other how they view each other the uh if you like I see I see it in a more problematic period than uh than at times in the past now that's bad as some other time so it's it's sort of history goes on uh this the the second uh point that I want to uh conclusion I want to drop analytically from what we have heard and otherwise is that if the trend continues and there is only two weeks left until the election so there isn't much much time uh it is likely that uh that Sunni under representation uh if you like the Sunni representation is going to get worse in the next parliament potentially uh because there is a lot of violence in western uh Iraq uh with two cities not really uh in unbar not clearly under government control whether elections will be held in those two cities or not uh that will affect obviously on representation and and second that there is obviously some perhaps half a million residents uh from those areas that have become uh displaced people or refugees and the third factor being what was said in the briefing which is the participation level of those who can participate being so low that you will that you're likely to have a kind of a they're not going to be as representative as the as the uh represented in numbers that as as the population would indicate and the potential alienation of the of the Sunni population from the from the from the institutions of the state parliament in particular to the elections are obviously with regard to that third thing is that one of the other negative things that i see uh is that the fragmentation of the of the of the of the iraqia party which was uh as a collective uh body it uh it was neck and neck in the last election as we all remember with the state of law the law and now what you see is that iraqia has splintered you have a number of smaller parties groups that were part of iraqia forming their own political parties and therefore there will be smaller groups uh emerging uh from the elections that will make it more difficult in terms of of of of consensus building uh maybe make it easier in terms of government formation some would say if you embrace as i hear the discussion currently in error and back that some attributed to the prime minister that maybe rather than a building or going for a unity government which has been uh and the case since 2005 elections that to go for nationally the unity government in which all communities will participate to a government that we're majoritarian government that from a functioning point of view the argument is that it could make it easier to make decisions rather than waiting for almost a consensus to be to be built before you decide on important things but on the other hand given the degree of polarization that i have talked to it will be at the expense of of of of building consensus building bridges bringing iraqis together which is also what the politics that would require and uh the last point on the on the trends would be that less like 2009 more like 2005 elections people will vote their ethnic and sectarian identity uh the 2010 election showed the movement a little bit away from voting for identity uh the shia voted essentially for shia parties sunni is voted for sunni parties and court obviously voted for the for the Kurdish parties in the 2010 there was this an appeal to transcend those by this iraqia being a cross sectarian and even those of kanun having to move to embrace this maybe there will be a return to an earlier phase of of voting for for uh uh within sex largely i think uh iraqia under a new name with ayah da lawi uh a kind of a national party will be there but the anticipation is that it will have a very much fewer much fewer seats let me since time is short say a word or two about uh the the implications for the election given the satisfaction uh the positive attitude that was set in the south where the most iraqis live and back that uh it is if that is reflected uh in in a big vote uh for uh the prime minister's party then one scenario is that uh with a big win essentially another government the prime minister would seek to return to forming the government and you could have a a a government that is uh especially as if the reports are correct that he's going to go for a majoritarian government that's one possibility a second scenario i'll say a word about each in a minute of this time is that after the election although the prime minister maybe the the head of the largest party as such and that maybe a given the opposition that exists in him uh towards him among the courts and sunis and even among samshia that there may be an effort to form a bigger block remember under the iraqi system the the nominee of the biggest block gets the first shot at at forming the government there are lots of issues whether that is feasible with samshia break with maliki uh and join essentially an alliance with sunis and court to challenge maliki what will iran do with iran allow it where would uh the uh marjahia uh it was sistani uh would stand would be important but that's uh it can't be ruled out and i know actively there is discussion among some of these parties but there are so many issues on which they differ i'm not uh i'm not uh entirely confident that this could this could be executed although the idea is there the third scenario is that uh that um there'll be deadlock uh that uh you will not be able to uh the even uh the effort by if maliki has the biggest uh and he's got a significant number that's a hundred or more uh seeds and that he would not be able to uh gain enough support to form a government uh but he's but no one else can challenge him at the same time if new other block the other another bigger block is not formed so you get even uh an acting government while effort to form a government a new government continues for a considerable period of time it was four or five months after the first force constitution election it was nine months uh the the the last election this could go on perhaps uh uh pretty even longer with implications of government that doesn't have a mandate reflects the man new mandate the new vote uh would have great kind of a vacuum of authority although this institution will be there uh and and uh perhaps uh uh worsening the current uh the trend the negative trends that that one sees although as was reflected there are some positive things that people see in the current situation so it's not entirely negative thank you very much thank you ambassador that was uh incredibly insightful in terms of really pulling everything together and I think particularly the trends that you mentioned on the polarization I I agree wholeheartedly with you that we're seeing a difference between what we saw in 2009 and 2010 and actually one of usip's programs which um focuses on youth salam shabab highlighted something similar that you know around 2012 youth were looking at issues based not identity but we're definitely seeing a backtrack along those lines I also think the points that you raised are very important in terms of the regional effect both inside Iraq but also in terms of international geopolitical considerations to really focus in on um and you know one of the things that I think in the three scenarios I mean the cost for each scenario um is incredibly high particularly any further sunni marginalization I think that that you know really worries me to hear and particularly in light of the numbers that you're seeing um but we'll turn to sarhan to kind of look at looking at the next phase and moving forward after elections thank you well uh I think I have a lot to agree with what has been said but I would like to look for for me to look at the election the preparation for the election the election as a milestone and then what happens I think for the past two years a lot has been attached to the elections for it may represent different things for different people for some people it may be as simple as replacing the prime minister because they cannot work with the prime minister or for some others could be a political solution or a change of political representation for others it could be security so there are different expectations there was a vote of no confidence on the prime minister because they they felt that there are certain things that they cannot uh do with him and if you look at the trend of the issues that the different political parties had with the different prime ministers I think there was probably over personalization of the issues making it around about the prime minister rather than the political system and what issues with the political process I think this input this election is a very important milestone in Iraq's political transition this is the second election since the withdrawal of the u.s troops from Iraq and this is the second test for Iraq's political process uh there has the excitement I'm glad to see you see that there are still excitement and from the uh from what we hear from our partners on the ground uh yes there is excitement but the excitement is about what this election will bring and the the level of excitement does vary as it's hard to say one statement about Iraq without breaking it down by different regions and I think as the data showed also this is true about the uh the the excitement about the elections uh I think a level of expectation management needs to to happen at the popular at the level of the public and also at the level of the of the politicians it is important that now that Iraqi people have some 9 000 options to pick from for 328 seats that is diversity that's a welcome diversity different people can uh can can be picked from but also if you look at the process there is some some things to say about the the opportunities that different people have if you are in Basra if you are in the south there is the security you can really zoom in and focus on what the different candidates have to offer but if you are in Anbar if you are in Salahadin if you are in Ninoa today your focus is really about about security about where do you have food for your family where is the next where do you go the next the next place so I think it is important to look at the general picture as what are the positives and not just look through the prison of security and say what are the bad things that we hear from Iraq but it's also important as we go into the enthusiasm and look at what is being done we do not forget about what could undermine the next chapter of Iraq so and so far the conversation has been assuming that elections will take will take place on time because if you if you listen to some of the Iraqis there is a lot of conspiracy theory than and they're playing to the fear factor of the government and the security forces that what will happen and I think that is important to take into consideration about how this is going to affect the interpretation of of the election results I think it's important that the elections happen and they happen on time there are there will be issues and concerns with the legitimacy at the at the from the Sunni side I think if you look at the big picture of that there could be ways that so those who are IDPs now and living at other places if they can the electoral commission can find alternatives where they can vote through through alternative ways but looking at the big picture yes there will be a question about the Sunni representation a logistic legitimacy of the Sunni representation but for the most part the seats of unbar of Salah Hadeem and Nino will not be primarily affected so the number of seats will not change so the the popular the major and the majority of the population they will have a significant representation but who is able to go and vote and are you going for this voting for this candidate or you had a desired candidate that could not run or the polling station in your area did not open that will be the question that they will they will they will grapple with actually in Baghdad the number of seats I suspect of the Sunnis is likely to go down because the and this will happen mostly in the mixed population areas in Nino and Salah Hadeem in Diyala and parts of Baghdad because security could prevent the turnout of some of the of the Sunni population and the Kurds also will gain some to to some extent from from this from this dynamic but ultimately the result of the election I think it's important for those who would win what to look at during the the run up to the election and afterwards that what what is the cost of the running on sectarian platforms and this is I agree and it's unfortunate that compared to the 2010 election we'll see more sectarian conversations and and narrative it is very important for those who are running today that to think about the government formation the because the deeper the divide they dig it's not that like in the in the west where you have elections even you could argue a little bit about that too but the next day things do not go back to normal it stays deeper that the device stay deeper with the people managing that from today that they have to think about governing and government formation in two weeks election campaigns need to take that into into concentration and as they do that there are some anti Kurdish narratives anti Sunni narratives anti Shia narratives the more you beat that today the more it's come back to haunt you and undermine the credibility of the the candidates themselves because you will have to work something out otherwise you are putting the country on a very dangerous path so it is important to take those factors in as quickly and as soon as as possible as we as we I think there is a lot at stake with the elections I mean the narrative the sectarian narrative the divide it it under and threatens the very fabric of the Iraqi society and even if Iraq becomes different regions after this election because there is a chance that there will be a stronger call from both the Sunnis and the Shia for more separation of power and so that because the security that they enjoy in the south the stability the services they think the potential could be higher if they have the Iraqi army bogged down in different provinces draining the Iraqi budget and having receiving dead bodies the Shia will ask themselves do we want to continue this and so it's not only the Sunni saying you know what forming of regions or forming independent entities is going to block off the center of the government so I think these are conversation are healthy conversations that they're fine but as long as they are done through nonviolent means and so that's why it's very important for this election's work many people thought the the the result of the elections will will bring the the the the the civic resolution to to their differences I said this I mean I was listening to what I said but we had an event here last year and listening to what I said then some of the issues still remain and I was reading secretary Gates book when he was talking about the surge and what were the issues at the time 2006 2007 a lot of the core issues remain although there are definitely improvement in services and Iraq's politics has decentralized actually if you look at the provincial elections it has decentralized there was competition there were changes in political dynamics we don't know yet a lot of the political parties and people hope that the same dynamics will hold today it will bring new faces it will bring um it will bring bring new political realities but even if it doesn't if it doesn't change the people it is important that they remember that the nonviolent resolution to their differences is important and time is is an important factor to look into uh because this is how people will look at it they tried the political process different rounds of elections and some of the core issues remain they tried and especially if you look at it from the perspective of the Sunnis that you they said they tried civil civil disobedience and they tried protest and it still did not bring results and if this time they they do not real also realistically look at the elections and what is possible and what is realistically possible they could be in for a major disappointment and it could increase the polarization and then the divide so that is an important aspect to look to look into and as we so there are a couple of things to to also think about as we look at the political process of Iraq in 2006 2007 when during the peak of this of the violence as Iraq's political process was still continuing even though there was a level of violence there were elections happening there were services being run but some some changes happened uh that the demographics of Baghdad has changed and I would like to put a point on the radar of the political leaders the international actors the friends of Iraq that when today if we look at last year the warning was the Iraqi army is under a lot of strain it's put in a tough position in population centers where they are where the political grievances and other grievances are mixed with security I think if you look at the picture today it's more complicated the geography of that problem has increased and the the the the complexity of the issue has has risen it's important that this cannot be ignored so Iraq's next government will have security as on its plate but it also has to look at it from away what are the drivers of the Syria will not go away anytime soon I mean unfortunately so it will the Syria effect will will continue but it's important to also realize what are the drivers of violence if even Syria doesn't happen because some of that exists in Iraq so a political inclusion is important so this this so getting back to the point of that there is a lot of talk today about the belt of Baghdad in the 1980s where they were accusing the Iraqi government of building a Sunni belt around a public change of demographics around Baghdad that to protect Baghdad now the fear has reversed is that though probably a Shi'a-led government in the community could look into say okay how do you reverse the that that belt into a and turn it into a Shi'a belt and this is I'm not saying this is a government policy but those extreme voices in the Shi'a community the militias could be pursuing such that and then definitely the Sunni the Sunni communities there are some people who are expressing concern about something like like that to wrap up on the election is definitely an opportunity I think that the winners should not see that an endorsement of existing policies and continue that should the existing leaders remain in power and those who do not get the the results that they wish it is very important for them not to go for an all-or-nothing kind of scenario that looking at the experience of Egypt and looking at the experience of Tunisia you can see where the path of stability and the path of where you bring more device looking at Iraq itself what if had the opposition in Iraq stuck together and not and pursued their demands and fixing the institution for a longer term we may have seen a different outcome in in Iraq as I said security has to be handled with a larger political framework and cannot be the sensitivity if you have tourists to arrest and you have other grievances it's it will be conflated and there's a lot of emotions running high today there has to be a process to to to to bring this to some sort of resolution and Iraq does need a process to resolve its differences that the parties are not talking together they will come together on the government formation but the communities there is a healing at the community level that needs to be to take place that political leaders there is a lot of division along tribal religious and political leader sectors that in the Sunni lands for example Abdulmaniki Saadi may has already been saying he will not recognize the result of the election this this brings device to communities and affects the political process while tribal leaders some are fighting the government some are are working with it unless there are I'm sure there are commonalities to be found among among these people and again on the shia side to work to work with with the with the other side whether the Kurds or the Sunnis that without a inclusive process without finding common grounds it will not be possible to to continue and I'll stop here thank you thank you sir hung and I think you've raised very important issues for us to keep in mind and you know just starting with the question of what does elections mean to different people I think is very important and in particular as we're excited to see movement in Iraq making sure we don't ignore some of the triggers or the red flags that you've raised one of which is that the Sunni seats will be filled but are they actually legitimate and tied to the ground but also looking at you know the geographic divide that you described as a red flag and I remember you know a while ago when you had highlighted very much about the borders and that was going to be an issue and then also police and you know the ambassador mentioned the second trigger the Askari being the first trigger I would almost say Hawija was almost the second trigger in terms of police and community really coming together and now we're looking at a third trigger and I think it's very important the term that you use healing we're going to open up to the floor but one of the questions I wanted to ask the panel revolves around this issue of healing and very much focus ambassador on the three scenarios you gave which I think all have a very high cost I mean if it's a majority then you lose the unity government if it's a bigger block and we saw that you know discussion happen in the vote of no confidence on Maliki so that is really a possibility or deadlock the violence that could turn from these three scenarios and really set Iraq on a different track I wonder is there a role in your viewpoint for the US or the international community to build in incentives whether it's for Maliki or other political parties for some type of national dialogue towards you know pushing towards a unity government or do you feel that that role is now over and in particularly kind of the viewpoint on the ground do you think that would be something that would be accepted by Iraqis or expected by Iraqis that there would be a push towards a unity government well there there is a role for the international community to to help although with regard to the United States the relative weight and role of the United States has changed it's not as as considerable as it was at one point and even then it was hard so but still the US does have a role I believe the various Iraqi parties to a different degree would look to to to a role for the United States to to to facilitate to press to to propose ideas to bridge the differences I believe also very important would be the role of Iran because if anything the Iranian role relatively has increased and and if the US and Iran has a similar outcome in mind it'll make it easier than that's often been the case although not always we have been at odds with each other with regard to different outcomes or options in in in Iraq but I I do believe that our there is a role the United Nations representative can play a facilitating role as well as at least these two powers if not if not more so this election and if I might conclude on this is is perhaps in some ways more important than any other election that Iraq has had because I do fear that if it produces deadlock or more of the same and some of these issues are not progress is not made to address them that there may be the beginning of a discussion which I I hear the start of and that that our Iraq is organized needs to be examined whether it's whether it can function as as it is so so it may raise it may lead to more fundamental questions being raised about the future and so I hope that that the election will lead to a consensus building and healing and that was mentioned here rather than further polarization and that unfortunately some of its neighbors would like Iraq to to go towards sure very briefly national unity government versus majority government it is the top issue in Baghdad it's top issue in Iraq and you have different opinions from different people you talk to and it's again quite divided depends on who you talk to what I believe regardless of what kind of government we talked about and that is what Iraq I think they failed in 2010 is a program can we bring people around certain ideas can we bring political parties blocks around certain program that address jobs security education healthcare if you have your policies I have my policies let us see which policies are better in what area I think if we if the process goes in that direction if we start talking about issues and maybe we don't have to agree about everything but if that is the nucleus of our negotiations rather than who will be the president who be deputy prime minister who will be the minister then I believe majority or national unity government is fine but and that is something that we strongly advocate and work are they going to be ready in two weeks or after two weeks to do that we will see some of them will be we will see if they have enough partners to negotiate based on policies give me your policies show me I'll show you mine you show me yours and then let us see open up for questions there's a mic that's floating around there's first question here hi my name is nick boros I'm with TD international my question is how do you think the lead up to the elections has affected the dispute between airball bagged out over the the oil exports and how do you see that dispute changing after the elections take place thanks is there any other questions here hello everyone my name is my one Levita and I work for the Department of Defense I would like to first thank all of you for the great presentations and also I would like to thank us IP for putting this form together Mr. Ambassador I met you for the first time in Afghanistan in 2005 and I become a big fan of your political views on Afghanistan and Middle East and with that being said I would like to ask you two short questions at the secretarial violence since it's a big issue and do you think that it's manageable while it was not manageable in the first place and the second question will be since secretarial violence is a big problem do you think that it will find its way to the military forces and sometime in the future they might just intervene and interfere with the election process and they'll try to avoid people that are trying to vote for the opposition and also I'm trying to ask you in regards to the militia that in Iraq the Iraqi people think that having militias are the bad idea and they shouldn't have it even though general Petraeus he was the one who came up with the idea that it might help and at the same problem in Afghanistan they do have these militias but unfortunately people are tired of them they created a lot of problems so what is your view in regard to the militias are they effective and providing security for Iraq why because at the time when general Petraeus came with the idea it was effective but right now it's going on a different direction thank you one more question and then we'll come to the second round thank you Mary Naota Wilson said that I was very struck by what seemed to me like a disconnect between the result of the opinion polls that showed that that the percentage of people who worry about the relationship between Baghdad and the provinces is very very slow low I think it was like 2% and what I think is happening in the country when you read what's happening not not just with Kurdistan but I'm very struck or or Nileve or Oralbar but also what's happening in a place like Basra where the governor is calling for regionalization can you explain this disjoint here in other words is this an issue that just concerns the politician but does not register with the public well on the issue I'll take it in order that it was served one on the oil issue it's really at the very heart of the federal structure in Iraq and this issue of do the regions have the right or or or governorates to develop explore and develop an export oil but share the revenue because the constitution does say very clearly and a lot of my great here has to do with being present at the negotiations over the Iraqi constitution because it doesn't state that oil belongs to all Iraqis in all provinces so the revenue sharing is and it emphasizes jointness a lot the constitution that makes this thing can be all the new but this issue of clear that the quite a number of companies reading the constitution and the laws that come to a judgment that governments and regions do have this right to develop the oil that's otherwise these big companies wouldn't go to invest in places like Kurdistan so the other issue now that has become very hot is the issue whether they can also export or only somo can can can export and Kurdistan is insisting it has the right to export and the government at the center is saying no and therefore I think unless there is an agreement on issues such as this that's why I thought the selection was important that then there may be a discussion of do you have to restructure Iraq if you unless you want to go to conflict to resolve it if you want to resolve it peacefully which is everyone's big goal I hope and then how do you come do you come to an agreement or do you restructure the relationship in some way so I don't have a prediction on this I hope that it will come to it obviously to an understanding but I'm not I'm not sure that they can and here to the U.S. in particular has been very active to avoid a break over this issue to find compromises or even near-term solutions while working on a kind of a longer-term solution down the road such as the proposal for a hundred thousand barrels being exported by Kurdistan to the Iraqi pipeline in exchange for restoration of budget but that has fallen apart as well so and one of the issues is if the view that the center decides all of these issues gains in the next government and back that let's say I'm not predicting it the speculating then and Kurdistan takes a different view how are they gonna how are they gonna resolve it with regard to the issue of sectarianism well I mean a lot of Iraqis tell me and that you know sectarianism is a more recent phenomenon but there are other Iraqis who tell me the opposite that this has been part and parcel of the life of the region or the area going for over a thousand years and but you both have a lot of evidence for their point of view including intermarriage including for the view that says this hasn't been a pronounced issue and the view that there are tribes that are half Sunni half Shia and and that this maybe during Saddam something went a little out of whack on this issue and now some people are perhaps seeking to take revenge on what Saddam that were others or maybe nostalgic about an earlier period and and sort of this coming to a new compact about what it means to be Iraqi and how the Iraqis relate to each other some progress has been made but Iraqis not quite there yet and this process of nation building we just really is state building is something aside it takes time especially the experiences that the Iraqis have had so and then the region has not helped Iraqis are the fault line of where the Arab world in Iran and Turkey meet and the mix up of the population makes it a particularly challenging place and and therefore the range of outcomes are unfortunately a little broader than one would like to see now with regard to militias I would say although it was directed at my colleague since I was there with General Petraeus for a period and I mean the United States view of militias is generally negative when I used to say in Afghanistan and Iraq that militias are the infrastructure of civil war that the answer to lack of rule of law and security problem is institutions that are trusted regardless of which community you belong to because you think the institution will behave neutrally it doesn't care who you are whatever what your ethnicity is you're set you broke the law whatever but at the same time it takes time to build those institutions they'll look at the history of police force build up in the United States there were periods in which a black person in some parts of the United States when he or she saw the police didn't feel a sense of security felt threatened by it and so therefore well that is the objective there is there is you know this process and I mean the history of Iraq on the institution building is we could just have a many hours of discussion but what happened with regard to the the awakening was that some of the people that were insurgents fighting the government they were turned for a period to a force that could be working with the government to fight al-Qaeda it wasn't a militia as militias normally would be defined it was a it was a short-term solution to a situation in which you had to deal with and and unfortunately I am a little critical of how those people were treated over time although they did serve a very important purpose in terms of they're being integrated into the into the structure of Iraqi state and society very briefly I believe the ambassador answered the issue the question both militias totally agree and you know when I brief people in Iraq when I say militia when I present this they all believe people that I brief this Hezbollah or ISIS the terrorist organizations pretty much that's what they are how they understand this idea that is quite promoted especially among Sunnis that they should be kind of dismantled yeah so that's that's the only comment I have on on militia in terms of the the oil disputes as ambassador said maybe the constitution is not really clear but Iraq is very young democracy and it will take time I take it took time in the states for the constitution and then tons of amendments to the constitution to be where we are and that is what will happen in Iraq this is natural to have tensions between the only region currently in Iraq and the federal government over the money oil and I think it takes time currently this issue is abused by both sides because of the campaign because of the elections but they always find a way to agree and they will find a way to agree this time I think in the future constitution has to be changed there are lots of things that constitution doesn't address and I think the the division of the power between provinces religions and the federal government man something that you ask is another thing that is quite vague in constitution and that has to be better defined we still don't have a federal council the second chamber in the parliament the chamber that should protect the interest of the provinces in our poll we did ask people about division of power between federal government and provinces and when you ask people they do give you opinion but on their own they do not rate that relation as extremely important when we ask them what do they believe who should have more authorities between different set of issues federal government or provinces they pretty much says as a normal education healthcare basic services provincial governments distribution of money oil security federal government and then we have big area of gray where they say both people don't know because of again it's a young democracy people need to be educated people need to figure out what exactly should be the authorities of the provinces versus federal government very quick comments I think some aspects I mean what we see in Iraq some of it is although it may appear negative but aspects of democracy actually working and to try to bring that into context and as you some of you may be aware that we had hosted at usip the prime minister two of his deputies other members of parliament people representing the legislative branch the religious sector in Iraq and all of them agree that Iraq and I've summarized all of them agree that the sectarianism it's not the issue it is political it's power it's it's the government on is that core issue but sectarianism is the way that the easier way to get votes and actually this is where democracy is it's it's important that people still care about people's vote and this is and it's an unfortunate path to people's vote but it is still means that these leaders care about the people's vote and I agree with with Elvis that it is it's changing that conversation that is important to turn it into issues to turn it to institutions the incomplete parts of the government that that needs to be completed and even the issue of sectarianism if people are not sectarian but they are acting sectarian someone as someone working on conflict resolution that's an easier problem to to deal with the result for the the person who's receiving the damage is the same but to resolve it it's it's an easier problem not easy but an easier problem and the there needs time the problem is that the the conversations that are being had is our individual or bilateral and behind closed doors and it doesn't take the time and the process and working on issues on the tensions between the minorities and if you in in the Nino province there are a lot of distrust there is a lot of disagreement when they come to the table when they sit through a methodical process they find out that they have more in common than they they have to disagree and the issues of power distribution of power the issues of of who rules where it's in these conversations that people could convince each other but it doesn't happen in one session or in discussion it doesn't happen overnight and it really the issues need to be separated and that's why we're the international community getting back to the earlier point that the ambassador also talked about this is the role of the international community the Iraqis distrust each other to a great extent they really need need others help I think a year ago Iraq was more sensitive to that help because it has recently come out from the the withdrawal of the US troops and it wanted to exercise its sovereignty but I think all the power parties now appreciate that help what is the framework and what is that role that could be discussed but I think there is more opportunity with the election and it needs to be seized I'm gonna have to ask your forgiveness because we're not going to be able to have another round we're out of time but I do appreciate everyone for your attention and for being here with us today and if speakers have time I invite you to speak with them one-on-one thank you again thank you to the speakers