 Hello, traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to a fresh update by RRG Research for Monday, the 19th of June. And I'm recording this on Friday the 16th. My name is Julius de Campanara and I am presenting to you from Amsterdam in the Netherlands. Let's start with a quick look at the rotation for the various world stock market indexes. And the RRG that we're looking at here is a weekly RRG. And I want to point out that the longer term trends that we've been tracking are still in play. I think that the two most important spreads, two most important opposite rotations that we're looking for are for the Japanese Nikkei index, which is arguably the strongest stock market from a relative perspective at the moment, against the Hank Sang. It's the same area, same set of, and we talked about that previously. And you can see that that move in favor of the Japanese Nikkei is still well underway, with the Nikkei pushing further into the leading quadrant and the Hank Sang pushing further into the lagging quadrant. The other big rotation that we can still see is for the US, mainly the S&P and the NASDAQ pushing into the leading quadrant, so that's a positive take, versus Europe. So the stock syntax, the FTSE, the KAC and the DAQs are all moving left, either inside the lagging quadrant or rapidly moving towards it. So summarizing this from a longer term perspective, Japan still favored over Hong Kong and the US still favored over Europe. Now let's look at a more granular daily chart, and you can see that some things are shifting. The Hank Sang here is well inside the improving quadrant, so it's picking up a lot of relative momentum. On the other hand, you saw that the Nikkei was moving counter-trend, but the last two, three days it started to move back up. That makes the Nikkei still the stronger market. We'll look at the chart in a minute, but the Hank Sang is picking up rapidly. The question is whether this is a temporary setback hiccup, and the Nikkei will continue to be favored over Hong Kong, or whether a shift in sentiment between those two indexes is going on. For the time being, with the strength of the Nikkei on the weekly RRG and the return back to strength on the daily, I'm still going with a longer-term preference for Japan over Hong Kong with potentially a near-term setback. So it was a very tradable and nice move. Maybe in the near-term it's time to lock in some of those gains, but it's not going the other side. Let me put it like that. So it's not that all of a sudden now Hong Kong is massively favored over the Nikkei. It's like when you're trading and you're in an uptrend and you're in a longer-term uptrend, you want to try to capture the up moves. If you trade counter-trend, that is dangerous because you're trading against the major longer-term trend. The major longer-term trend here is in favor of Japan over Hong Kong. So what I'm looking at is to see if we can capture those periodic rallies of the Nikkei over Hong Kong from a relative perspective. Quite similar for the US. You can see that the S&P and NASDAQ are rolling over. However, they're still on the right-hand side of the chart. They're inside weakening, but all that European stuff is on the left-hand side and moving further left. So quite a similar story there where there is still a longer-term preference for the US over Europe, but it seems to be going through a little bit of a setback. And here also the longer-term trend that weekly RRG is prevailing and the shorter-term tails on this daily chart are, for now, I would say indicative of a short-term pause in that move. Let's quickly look at the same RRG, but now we're using 0% return, which essentially makes this RRG a price-trend analysis tool. And what you see here is strength across the board for all these stock market indices. When you're on the right-hand side, you're on an uptrend. And when you're moving up from below 100 on the momentum scale to above 100, it basically means that you're picking up momentum, picking up a trend. And these, the green ones here, they're doing that while they're already in an uptrend. The blue and the red ones are doing that while they're coming out of a downtrend. Let me quickly go over a few of those individual charts. So here's the Nikkei index. And you can see why there might be a short setback on the horizon. This is an almost vertical rise. Undoubtedly, undeniably, super strong, nice higher highs and higher lows. We've got some previous highs coming in as support in case of a decline. But what I see here is that there is negative divergence building up between price and the RRG. And that's usually, at least for the near-term, signaling a pause or a small counter-trend move. If we look at the RRG lines, and you can see that that RS ratio line has reached a relatively high level and momentum has just dipped. It's absolutely possible for the Nikkei for that momentum line to get back above 100 while the RS ratio remains above 100. And then you'll get one of those rotations on the right-hand side where you go from leading into weakening and back into leading, which basically underscores a super strong relative trend for the Nikkei index. When we look at Hong Kong, we can see why that was a negative. And especially when we talked about it last, it was just breaking below that support area here. That move has been reversed. And we're now breaking this falling trend line. That is definitely a lot less reliable than any horizontal level that you can see. But nevertheless, it looks as if something is shifting under the hood. And you can see how those relative strength lines are starting to move a little bit higher. They are, however, indicating that the relative strength for Hong Kong versus the MSCI world is still a lot lower than for the Nikkei index. So for the time being, as I said, longer-term preference for Nikkei over Hong Kong, it looks as if we're going into a shorter-term pause of that move. That's basically the final conclusion, I'd say. When we correctly go to the NASDAQ, you can see how that is a rally that is very steeply moving higher. And we're now starting to push against overhead resistance coming from those two highs back in March 2022. Given the massive rally and the steepness of the rally, I wouldn't be surprised if we could see some sort of a setback going on there. You can see how the relative is already starting to lose a bit of momentum. RSI is still pushing higher, so that is still underscoring the longer-term strand of that market. But I'd be very careful with new long positions, especially as we're pushing against that overhead resistance area. The S&P is a little different in the way, in the sense that it has just broken a major overhead resistance level around 4300, 4350. And we're now on the way to that range, which I think is around 4550. You can see how this level here, that's 4535, was played a role a few times in the past. And you can see how that 4580, let's say it's 4600 played a role in the past. So that creates a bit of a zone here, which is, you know, the middle is 4550. That is definitely a very well possible target for the S&P 500. The relative strength index, the RSI is at almost peak levels. And we've seen that here before. That doesn't mean that you can't go higher, as you can see. As a matter of fact, high RSI values are good, because it means that over the last, and in my case, that's nine days, market has predominantly been going higher. So overbought, yes, but overbought conditions can continue for quite a while. It's only starting to be a problem when the overbought condition is going to be reversed. That's usually when you start paying attention to indicators like the RSI. So here is the stocks index. You can see how that is having trouble moving higher. Here, the RSI is moving a little lower. I'm not calling this a divergence because we have seen levels well below 30. And for me, a divergence is something like this here. This is a divergence where the RSI never dipped below 50. That's when I start getting interested in taking a negative divergence like here. When you see this like here, here you see very clear divergence. There's no, this low here didn't dip below 50. That happened here. That's kind of negating what you see here. I hope that makes sense. And then finally, the DAX index, one of the major European markets, it is pushing against its all-time high. And that makes it a bit of an important juncture, I think, because obviously, when the DAX takes out that all-time high, 16 to 90, so let's say 16,300, that opens up massive upside potential. RSI is not triggering any signals at the moment, but look at the relative strength. That is a very weak relative strength reading for the DAX index against the rest of the world. So despite the fact that the DAX is pushing against overall resistance coming from all-time high levels, it is still not as strong as, for example, the Nikkei index or the S&P and the NASDAQ. Keep that in the back of your mind when you make your decisions on what index to trade and from what direction. Let's move to the FANG stocks, to the New York FANG index. And this is very much like the NASDAQ index. It is, it came out of a massive bottoming formation. And the interesting thing is you could, we could argue that this is a massive head and shoulders reversal pattern and this was the neckline. If we want to go that route, then it means that we had like 4150 as the low point in the formation and we have around 6000 as the neckline. When we project that distance from the breakout level, it's around about 8000 where we're getting there. So there is massive resistance and it's the price target for that inverted head and shoulders pattern if you went to that type of analysis. Nevertheless, there's two ways of analyzing this and they both come out at a pretty heavy resistance area around 8000. And look at the RSI here. This is a, this is seriously negative divergence. You know, since the rally here, so this is May 17th, this high here, the RSI has not been able to confirm those highs. That is a pretty strong negative divergence. Price chart here, clearly still very strong, but the risk is increasing because we're running into resistance and our support is only at 7000. With this type of divergence, I wouldn't be surprised if we can see some sort of a top-ish action and the New York Fang index moving lower, maybe even going all the way back to 7000 and test it before continuing its bullish trend, which is still there from a longer-term perspective. But it looks as if we're getting into some short-term trouble here, to be honest. We look at the daily RRG for the Fang, and this is obviously using the New York Fang as the benchmark. And you can see how two major components here, so NVIDIA and AMD, are rolling over and losing rather strength. Tesla's still okay. Netflix, stable. Look at the difference in the tail length. Netflix is on the right-hand side with a short tail. And you see NVIDIA and AMD moving in the southwestern direction, 180 to 270 degrees at a quite strong move. So Netflix is still doing okay in this regard, so is Tesla, but NVIDIA and AMD, at least they're going through some sort of a setback. Interesting tail here for Snowflake, moving out of the lagging quadrant, powering into the improving quadrant at probably the longest tail of this entire universe. Let's look at a few of these individual charts. So here's NVIDIA. We all know, training a new all-time highs, massive rally. Look at this gap here that is massive. But, and you see that Rad strength is rolling over, but more importantly, look at this RSI here. This is a divergent. This is a strong divergence. Where can it go? I mean, again, longer-term trend is still there, but personally, I wouldn't be a big fan of buying it at these levels. You're buying at all-time highs. It's usually not the best idea. And where can it go back? If we get a setback, I'm looking for the gap area, which is between, let's say, 365 and 315. Big area, obviously. And a bigger dotted red line here is coming off the previous high. So there is a lot of support to be found between 320 and 360. And even if that happens, it's not going to harm the longer-term uptrend for NVIDIA. So very, very likely in the next couple of weeks, we may see better entry opportunities for NVIDIA. And that probably also goes for AMD. Because it's showing kind of the same type of pattern. Look at the divergence here between the price and the RSI. That's pretty strong. And look at the RRG lines. They're rolling over. So it's losing relative strength. It's now time inside the New York FANG index for other stocks to actually take over, to actually push that index higher if it's possible at all. I'm quickly going over a few of the other FANG stocks. So here is meta, pushing higher, nearing gap resistance. Look at the relative strength. That's losing momentum, losing strength here. RSI not able to confirm the recent rally. Look at Amazon. RSI not able to confirm those levels. Relative strength rolling over. Look at Google. This could arguably be a very small head and shoulders pattern, but here is a higher high. Relative strength is negative. Look at the RSI. You've got strong negative divergence here. So when Google takes out 120 to the downside, I'd be very careful with Google. Could be a nice tradeable opportunity because the next support area is 109 and there's a little gap here around 114. Look at Netflix running into resistance and Snowflake. That's the one that I want to talk to you about. Snowflake is not overbought. The RSI is just like just coming into that overbought area, at least moving over 70. But what I really like is the move in the price chart, where it's just taken out its overwrite resistance around 185. Still a little bit left, of course, 205. It's a tradeable opportunity in my opinion. And then the next one is around 245. So out of all these FANG stocks, it looks as if Snowflake is starting to take over from what we just said NVIDIA and AMD and maybe a few of the others. We're running out of time here. Let's quickly go to the forex stuff. This one, this is the weekly. It's still kind of spread out. But the more important thing is when you look at the daily RRG for the US dollar. What this means, these are all these pairs are moving on the top right. And mind you, they're all expressed in US dollars. And that means US dollar weakness. Actually, you see that all these currencies are moving higher against the dollar. So that is, in a general sense, in this timeframe, dollar weakness at the moment for the time being. And that's all happening after the release of the Fed figures last Wednesday. And you can see how that Euro dollar chart put in a new low. We started moving higher. And then this week, we got the acceleration. So it actually started. So this is Thursday. So Wednesday, this is where it started here. Wednesday to 14 when it moved higher. And we got a good follow through yesterday on Thursday. So we'll have to see how that goes. But from this point of view, I wouldn't be surprised if we would see 110, 111 again. And with this move, there's now very solid new low in place, which you can draw a trend line underneath. I shaded it a little bit because I pay way more attention to the horizontal levels that I've drawn in here. But if we take this trend line as a starting point, these highs are lining up in parallel. So it looks as if we're starting to build a little channel, which means that that four Euro dollar, there is definitely upside potential to be gained towards 111, maybe even a little higher. And that's important because that could mean a real reversal of that longer term downtrend that we saw here was still possible. We're still possible that we put in a new high here. But I'm getting more and more sceptic about that because we are getting back above. And I need to make that really long for you to see that. But here you can see how around 104 was a very important level. We broke that. We got back above it. And we really would need to go back below 104 to actually get back into that dollar strength move. And that seems to be further away right now. So over the time being strength for the Euro, but also for pretty much all the other currencies and in general, dollar weakness. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for watching. I'm looking forward to seeing you again next week and a new update by RRG Research. Same time, same place.