 Welcome back. It's sort of breakfast and plus TV Africa. Well, the cash withdrawal policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria came into effect yesterday. As we earlier said, Monday, January 9, 2023, as planned, despite the scarcity of new narrow notes and the Senate's plea, Nigerian Senate's plea to the central bank to considerably adjust the withdrawal limits in response to a public outcry on the policy. Now, in December 2022, we called the Central Bank of Nigeria, director of deficit money banks and other financial institutions to ensure that over-the-counter cash withdrawals by individuals and corporate entities per week do not exceed 100,000 narrow and 500,000 narrow, respectively. Nigeria's APEX Bank also declared that the maximum cash withdrawal per week via the automated tele-machine should be 100,000 narrow, subject to a maximum of 20,000 narrow cash withdrawal per day, adding that only denominations of 200 narrow and below should be loaded into the ATM and withdrawals from POS as point-of-sales terminals is a little devices capped at 20,000 narrow daily. Now, the CB and the other to public pressure over this policy and went ahead to increase the maximum weekly limit for cash withdrawals across all channels by individuals and corporate organizations to 500,000 narrow and 5,000,000 narrow weekly, respectively. Now, the new cash withdrawal policy followed the launch of the newly-designed 200,500,000 and 1,000 narrow notes as you've seen on your screen by President Mohammad Buhari on November 23, 2022 with the Central Bank setting Tuesday, January 31 as the deadline for the usage of old notes in circulation. We have just a couple of weeks to go. Now, following the commencement of this cash withdrawal policy, what has the compliance been like? Now, there's still concerns about the policy and its workability. Is there still skepticism over the motive behind the policy? And how will this policy affect the Nigerian economy short-term and long-term? We are joining us to run an analysis on this Mukta Mohamed. He is, of course, a financial analyst. Mukta, it's great to have you on the program and happy new year. Same year, so happy new year. What have you observed from your readings from the papers and watching media reports? And maybe if you've been to the banks, have you made any observation from yesterday? I think I've not been to the bank yesterday, but I've got reading from media houses on the papers. It seems that we've started seeing the new Niran who's been disbind in the 80s. I think for me that's a good one. We are reading that people in Abuja and also Lagos, but I don't know about the Jura area yet. But then, I think it's a good thing. Most Nigerians are complaining about the timing. Some of them are complaining about their businesses being cash-driven. And they feel that some of them, 500,000 could be much. For some of them, 500,000 could be small. But like I said, I think it's a good policy. We're going here. We've been expected to start this smoothly, but I think it's starting to be smooth, especially in the urban area. So we need to get what's happening in our area. That's where we have always said the challenges will come from. Is January 31 realistic, the deadline, for the old Niran notes to cease being legal tender in Nigeria? Well, if we go back to what the deputy governor of the CBN said, he said they ordered 500 million of these notes to be printed. And then they expect that to be here before that time. And again, the CBN governor also told us that it's not going to be that when we print all these notes all at once into the economy because that's also the key to country inflation and also the cost for the CBN. So definitely, if you look at that, by January 31, you think, OK, maybe it's too short a time. But if you look at the larger picture of what we want to achieve, then you think it's not too much for us to do it with the old Niran notes because all you need is to go to the bank and you exchange it and you have all the channels. Like that's where the cashless policy also is working. The only challenge I will have is if at the 31st of January, most Nigerians that they did, they will start rushing to the bank. And so they will cost a lot of issues into the system. So our advice every Nigerian, if you have the old Niran note, you try to take it to the bank earlier than possibly a lot of challenges on the 31st when all of them won't go to the bank at once and they cost chaos. And that will be a means whereby they want the CBN to shift it. For me, I don't think they should shift it. If they shift it, the larger effect on the economy will be very, very bad, especially in the area of inflation. Alright, I want to explain that to when you say the effect on the economy will be bad in the area of inflation. Yeah, you see, it's one of the tools that I want to use to control inflation. And remember that some of the old notes are not even in the banking space. Even not to this moment, they've been asking them to bring these notes. We've not gotten to the number where the CBN told us and the banking space and the number that are there now is still the still wider gap between what we're looking for, those funds that are, those Niran notes that are outside the banking space and those that are in the banking space. So definitely, if you want to shift their policy, number one, your inflation fives that you want to use. So the currency circulation will be a major, major challenge. Second, again, we mustn't forget that most of these Niran notes are also kept at home because of the foreign nature that they were gotten. So definitely, you give them no time to begin to think of perpetuating most of these frauds. And remember again that the exchange rate volatility that we are seeing today is because so many Niran notes that are not in the banking space chasing fewer dollars that are outside. So the forces of demand and supply comes to pay and you've seen those volatility in the yesterday. But seeing the implementation of this policy, you've seen the exchange rate come from a height of almost 900 to a low of about 600 before we left. We have that problem between, that's in the parallel market. We're open between 700 and 740. I'm talking about the parallel market and I think it's bringing a little bit of stability but if you decide to say you want to extend the period it could cause a major disruption, especially in the stability of the exchange rate again. We're told over the weekend, over the weekend the CBN issued a directive to banks to put the new notes in their ATMs and stop giving them out to customers over the counter. This fellow complains by Nigerians who have not been able to access the redesign notes since it was rolled out on December 15, 2022. That's what some sources are given as a reason the CBN is coming up with this directive. What do you think is the thinking behind this directive? I've been thinking about it, whether that's the real reason or something else. That's number one number two. If the CBN had said it is secular from December 2022 but only 200 narrow notes should be loaded to the automated tele-machines how would people be able to get the 500 or 1,000 narrow notes since they're not being given over the counter? I think the CBN seems to be bringing different policies, different issues. That's what I'm afraid. Those are the challenges that we see. Maybe they're not giving us any information and what it means is that we don't have the office notes already printed or what they have is in the lower denomination. Remember the CBN got also made mention that we'll make sure that we do know the lower denomination and the higher denomination. So for me it's a big challenge because if you are ignorant in telling me I can withdraw 500,000 over the counter and then you are saying that I cannot I have to go to the ATM machine to get the new notes. If I want to withdraw up to 500,000 that means they will direct me to the ATM machine and remember the ATM machine can only disperse 100,000 for one week I can get 500,000 so definitely I think they should think about it again and it's showing that maybe they are looking at logistic in the short term but I believe that in the long term before the end of December 31st we might get the necessary results that we need. So right now you are able to get of course the 500,000 or 5 million Naira per week over the counter but you can't get it in new Naira notes. So what are we talking about? Because if you are going to be able to get those amounts of money only in old Naira notes till 31st they are really going to see a rush because people will have that money in circulation they want to rush to take it back to the bank on December 1st, number 2 Aaxelia, they are saying give out only 200 Naira from the ATMs so how will people get the 500 and the 1,000 Naira notes new notes if they are not being given over the counter and it's not in the ATMs? I think we are on the same page but what I think the CBN is doing is that maybe they have printed more of the 200 Naira notes for now because of the ATM because most Nigerians especially me who are here make use of the ATM so definitely and remember like I said the CBN government made mention that we will not be single hired in our nation so much so they are trying to reduce that for me I think it's born down to when we are talking about trying to manage it especially in the area of inflation but there may be not only inflation in this sense I think it's logistic they have a logistic challenge and maybe they are looking at if they begin to dispense the new 500 to 1,000 Naira notes before the date of convention December 34 they may run out of it but like you made the valid point that if you are giving me the old Naira note we have to bring it back to the bank also again after the expiration of this of the tenure and you are telling me on December 34 you are going to give me that note maybe on the 30th but I think within the next one we need to look at those policies and begin to see whether that will still be that you get the old Naira note over the counter over the new Naira note remember that the students they are listening to the cry of their stakeholders and by that they continue to reject this policy to meet the demands of the stakeholders and also Nigerians in general so I expect that the next one week is a pilot scheme just starting when they look at the next one week how much success they have so they might begin to say look you know what we can begin to dispense within the category that's what I think at what time you need to give it to them that they are trying to look at the policy we still have up to like in the next three weeks to make sure that all these notes, the new Naira note are available for all Nigerians remember they say the new Naira note and the old Naira note will continue to be a medium of age on December 34 so what I advise Nigerians is you must be strategic so that you don't go to collect the new Naira the old Naira note then at the 31st of December you are not able to collect it you must try to insist for your bank to give you the new Naira note and if you don't have it then you need to begin to look at using the cashless the internet banking or using your ATN to do transfer so that is for me that is the best way to fix this sorry because in the short term like I said it's going to cause a lot of disruption in the system but in the long run it's going to be good for us but how the CDM managed the short term is for me the major challenge and I think if we are going to gather from yesterday yesterday and what we are going to be looking at for today it seems to have started in a little bit a smoother than we thought but we need to rush it I think for me in the next one week it's a key timeline to see whether on the 31st of January we have the new Naira note we still have both the old Naira note and the new Naira note but even on CDM I think in the next one week we should do away with the old Naira note especially within the banking space and begin to disperse the new Naira note that again would be an encouragement for Nigerians that have the old Naira note to bring it to the bank whether or not bring it to the bank I get the new Naira note but even when you take the old Naira note to the bank and then I will still have the old Naira note for anybody who wants to do that it's a really confusing situation I think you put it perfectly I take the old Naira note to the bank and I can't exchange it for new Naira notes because you know giving them over the counter how does that work so we all going to wait till 31st December January I have a name in my head this is Muta Laturiya for you it's a former head of state from a premier of Nigeria from a prime minister he's from the south east who am I talking about he has his face on the currency that's Dr Namdi Azikiri fantastic fantastic so I have Dr Namdi Azikiri for you I wish I could give this to you but you are far from me I have a theory my theory is that people especially in the rural parts of Nigeria who still don't know about this this change the Naira note has been fake beyond December January 31, 2023 all people will still be trading with the new old Naira notes beyond that because it looks so similar well I will talk about the counter I think it was in your program or one of the program we will talk about the counter we will talk about the whole idea of the new Naira note coming in this way it's because you need to guide against counter I think the best way to guide against counter is to get those new Naira notes from the bank in space versus one when you take it from the bank then you are able to do it and again actually the major challenge that a lot of people have had is in the area of information I explore the CDN to begin to use the natural rotation agency to begin to work with the media houses both private and public and also use the town crafts in the villages for the traditional rulers I think the CDN has not done well in the area of information they need to do knowing that and unfortunately three weeks might not be enough for them to do that they needed to get every stakeholder especially because of the new Naira because even in the urban area I gave an instance that when I was in Kaduna a friend of mine was telling me to to a vendor when he bought something and the vendor was particularly rejecting me saying you need to collect the new Naira notes and also when somebody was giving the new Naira note to a vendor and he said no I would rather collect the old Naira notes so because there is no information from the CDN the CDN needs to do more in terms of information they didn't do more because there was no jingo and again when it comes to counterfeit like I said when you see you want to take the counterfeit from the way if you go to the market and they see the code of arm and they say this is original this is not original it took Nigeria to be complaining that they have counterfeit found counterfeit is coming into the system for the CDN to begin to tell us what are the security features to look out in the new Naira note so that by that you can be able to identify which one is fake or real that's what I'm saying that they did not do well in the area of enlightening Nigeria about this their policy alright finally look at the design of this new Naira we felt to hold the two of them side by side the new one looks like counterfeit while the old one looks like the original a look at the painting is not neat they are spillovers look at the 500, the zeros they are spillovers of the green look at the letter 5 the big 5, big F they are spillovers of the green and when we did an experiment live on air to try and rub it onto a white paper this is what we saw ok I think you can see this you can see the green Muhtar is faint because of the screen but we saw green on this white paper which means that it's going to be washing off if car is not taken so I think this reasons why Nigerians may decide not to some people who are not enlightened accept this new Naira and go with the old one beyond generation 31 thereby creating a parallel economy of sorts a parallel currency economy if you want to call it that in parts of the country like villages people just need to pay themselves like they are using some places themselves with it and CBN they don't send the money to the banks and the country living life as normal Muhtar I think that might not work if you are into business because if you talk about it by far what is the media of East Indania to keep it at low security and again you can't take it to the bank I don't think that would work even because it's stubbornly got tender from the 30th Naira from the 31st of January so if you are transiting business with your own Naira note then you are being illegal and definitely admirably in a civilized society the security agents are supposed to come after such people that is one second I remember that the MD of the security and printing main committment came in that it's a delibate plot where you work what you just did with the new Naira note comparable to the old Naira note remember again one issue that the CBN government came driving then it was that to guide against counterfeitings that the new Naira note the new Naira note is going to make sure that it's apparently very difficult for them to counterfeit it even if we saw that they had to but the entity didn't give to us to look after the security features but we saw that they were counterfeitings that they were telling us what to look at in the old and what makes it counterfeit so for me security features is what determines the nature of the currency it's not in the design how more security features do we have in that currency to guide against counterfeitings and what the CBN is telling us if we have to believe them which I think we should believe them is that it's going to be very difficult for them to counterfeit the new Naira note and we'll keep monitoring this as we count down to January 31 and of course we'll have you again on the program I appreciate your time and have a wonderful day and of course that's the size of our package right here on the breakfast in Plus TV Africa please end about the four of us on our social media handles at Plus TV Africa on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram YouTube as well we have two accounts Plus TV Africa and Plus TV Africa lifestyle up next we will turn tomorrow with a breakfast