 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good to us. I'm going to cover the YM first and then we're going to switch over to something really exciting and that is Christmas corn December corn for our good friend up there in Washington Mr. MB. Now you'll notice the double triple ABCDs we had up here at this level. There was the 382 yesterday folks. You can see that it broke down. I'll cover the 382s on the others in just a moment but we need to get on with our good friend MB and talk to him about Christmas corn. And if anybody is full of corn, you've got to be MB himself. God bless you Marshall. Hold on a second. I can't find it. Here it is. Here's Christmas corn getting it up here right now and should be making new lows as we speak here pretty close. This is the hour Lena. What we're going to do now is we're going to switch down to the daily because we have going to be a buyer. Oh, you have to love this. This is why you see QG. All right, here's what I'm looking at Marshall. This is where we're at 468. Okay, I want to get it down to 464 and we got a really good chance to get there. Now this is a four hour chart so it's covering, you know, several weeks in here. So we're going to we're going to get there. There's your 1.618 expansion. We've got others that are coming in here that are moved. I must be doing something wrong because people are warning me about something I don't know. But there's your number buying it around 465. And I don't even think you have to risk 20 cents, but I'll put a 20 cent stop just to be just to be safe. But look what it's got. Here's a weekly range. Okay, the 1.618 expansion to that weekly range is at 464 Marshall. So you want to buy it around 465. You could put a stop at 455 and you'll be fine because I don't think it's going to get much below there. And if it does, you don't want it anyway. So instead of being a farmer for $1,000, you know, be a farmer for 500 bucks. So cancel this, stop here at 445 and put it at 455. We're still trying to buy July soybeans and we haven't been able to get them bought. There's still six cents higher than where we wanted to buy them. So that's what we're watching. This is going to be very soon because we're right here at 686. You see you're only talking here about a very small amount. You're only talking about five cents in corn. Once we take out these stops, the people are going to say it has no bottom and that's what we'll be looking at right in here. So let's keep our powder dry and wait for 465 and buy a lot of it because this is one of the times, folks, stop and think of the farmer. Let me show you the weekly chart on this, folks. Just a year ago, he was getting $6 for his corn. Now it's zero. This is bad tick. I can't help that because I'm using a different data source for just a time. But there it was at $6. Now here we are at 450 and nobody wants it. Remember wheat? At $13, everybody had it. Everybody had to have it. When it's at $5, nobody wanted it. That's all part of the game that they play, boys and girls. Okay, now let's move on here to something that'll be exciting for us all. And that is exciting enough, but we'll move on to something else. Those of you that follow me with some of this stuff for a long time, you have to watch this because even myself am surprised because look at this. This is the NASDAQ, folks. I'm not going to show you all the patterns, but there's the first 382 retracement right here to the exact tick, folks. I had this set wrong from the very beginning. I'm going to move it down. It hit the exact tick at 11792. It's now 120, no, it's 110 handles lower than that right there from the 382. Now that is the NASDAQ. All right, if you don't believe me on everything, then we're going to look at everything. Then we're going to take a look at the stop and pee if I can find it. And here it is. We're going to get this up here and we're going to get up to the, I guess it'd be a 13 minute, we'll tell us. And that's what we want to be watching. You'll get this up here like that. Here's the range today from the big happening that was going on. And then we had the big break and the rally back from the high down to your low one tick above the 382 retrace it. That's that's that one. Okay. And then we have another one, which was the, we got it. Did we do the Russell? Oh, God. I tell you some folks sometimes this stuff just absolutely makes me unbelievable. All right. I haven't done the Russell, but let's just check the Russell. I don't trade that very often. And we'll get it up here to see if it did the 382. So 20 minutes on the Russell and it had a big break. Don't see any 382 here yet, but let's just move it over just a tiny bit. And there's not a 382 in here. I can see that's a little higher. And from this, oh, it just didn't even come close to a 382. Oh, my golly. Oh, it's drawn wrong. Hold on. But it's off by a little bit. Let's be realistic. Okay. Yeah, this was no good. See, it missed it by missed it by one tick. Got to pay attention to those 382. Some people I could never get involved with looking at it. But boy, it's a big one for fast changing markets here with the here's where the real problem was folks today. It wasn't the this thing with the CPI stuff, folks, if you think the Federal Reserve doesn't play games with this stuff, while they were doing your baiting you all during this time is Oh, yeah, this the bond market was telling you know, that's not what's happening. Watch what the bond market was telling you folks. And the bond market says we wanted to go lower. Remember looking at this on the weekly chart, we said this does not look good. And now you see why it doesn't look good. And that was the key. You remember that? What was that movie with Jerry Maguire? Remember Tom Cruise and Cuba Gooding? And he said, follow the money and by golly, that's that's what they want. Go where the money is. And that's what you want to be doing. They certainly did that in the Super Bowl. Okay, now we want to look at the next one here. This is one that we wanted to sell, but we never got a chance to do it. We were trying to sell the 382 right here. Okay, now we had to make a newer lower low now. So we've got a new 382 that'll be coming in here tomorrow. Probably that'll be into a gap area. So you want to watch live cattle tomorrow 185 82. Okay, that's going to be really interesting to look at. All right. Now the next one we were looking at today was a good I'm going to go to the bad one in just a minute. Well, ain't bad yet, but it will be soon. Hold on a second. Here is the get that for I think it was an hourly chart. Yeah, there was the hourly chart. There was a 382 sell that stop should go above the 618. And you can see what happened here. It just went boom, just straight down. Those are the kind you like to see. They don't always work that way. But sometimes they do. And that's what you look for. See how important the 618 was. It missed it by by 20 cents. So you stop would have been above here. At the worst thing, you wouldn't, you know, you wouldn't have lost any money on this, even if you handled it wrong in my opinion. But, you know, like I say, my opinions are wrong quite a bit. And then the one that's given this the headache and that well, it's not much of a headache, but let's get it up here anyway. And that is the crude oil because we had a sell in the crude oil and just missed our stop so far. But it will get it. I'm pretty sure there was our number. You see our 786 we were selling it 7760. We risk a buck. So the stop is 7760. It got to 7749. And it hasn't stopped us out yet. But odds are it's going to get us here pretty soon. But we still have to stop working. That's what stops are for. Keeper from making mistakes. Okay, we'll take a break. If you have any questions, it's 877-927-6648. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. 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It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN, we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just one dollar and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. And remember, at TFNN, we're so confident in the value we provide that we offer a 30-day money-back guarantee on all new premium newsletter subscriptions and services. You have absolutely nothing to risk. So why wait? Tune in live to Tiger TV and transform your trading journey. Because when you know better, you invest better. Join us and experience the difference today. TFNN, educating investors. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Okay, folks. I want to switch over here and talk about the euro here because we had a really nice trade setup here. Let's do the hourly because that's what we were watching. You'll notice that this was the pattern that we were looking at right here. Now, I said several times in the video that I sent out twice. I sent one last night earlier this morning. I said, you must have your stop right here because you get below there. It's going to break this beautiful 135 pattern. Look at the rally right after the report that somebody construed it as being bullish. And believe me, the euro market is a huge market. So this is not small. There's a perfect 786. That's why I like these numbers so much, folks. You look at other things. Yeah, well, maybe they work. Maybe they don't. But these things are just unbelievable. Now, we've broken down big time here in the euro. So something really big has happened here. As we look at this, you see there's where our stop was. That's where we bought at 107-40. We're now 10 pips below that. But unfortunately, we had a little bit of a profit in here. I was worried about it because we were here one, two, three, four, five, six days and couldn't get any higher than this. That's what was so scary. But it could have gone either way. And now it's broken down. It tells us that most probably the euro is going down and the US dollar is going up. And that certainly isn't bullish to gold. And that's why the gold broke so much. Now, I've had a question here this morning about silver. Let me get this up here. Mike Moore will be our guest here today with the technical difficulties not happening. And we'll see here with the silver for just one second. We'll get the old silver right up here. And we're going to start out with the daily and see where we are right here with the daily. And you can see we've had a pretty big reversal here. It looks like it duped this day. No, it must be two days. Yeah, it is two days in a row. I'll be darned, 12th and 13th, almost the same highs and lows. In fact, it hasn't taken this low out. It was really surprising because the gold certainly has. And that we're going to find out whether it's going to hold. Folks, here's the one that you really want to pay really close attention to. This is the one. If you can buy silver down here at around $0.19 an ounce, which is the 61% retracement of the low way back here. Okay, if you can buy that there, that is what I would think would be. There's your double top. You can see that. You can see the market's coming down. I don't know if this ABCD is going to be correct or not, but most probably we're going to get to this level. We hit the 618 perfect now. So if we can get it down about $3, I know you don't think it could happen, but it can. And if you do get it down here at $0.1930, around $0.19, anything under $0.19, just buy it and put it away because that's going to be something that is pretty good. I've been through these bull markets in silver and gold each time they've hit $55 an ounce. And the next time it goes above $55 an ounce, it'll go to $100 an ounce. And the reason for that is they are running out of supply of silver. There's only so much of it on this planet with more and more people. They're going to be using it. So I hate to bring the supply demand in, but that's a nice pattern down there if we can get to it. So that's the other thing. Now I had another question today about wheat. And I haven't been following wheat at all because of all the other things we've been following. But let's get over here and take a quick look here at the wheat market. We'll start out with, we should be doing May wheat now, folks, because the March, well, I still have March on the board. So we're going to use March wheat and it starts with a W, at least a U2. And there it is. There's the daily chart. Let's see if it hit a... See, it's just in a trading range. It's doing very, very little. You can see here, if you like ABCDs, and I certainly do, there's your ABCD pattern right here. Then we have the nice rally. And then we have multiple ABCDs down here. And look, we haven't, we haven't broken out. We're in a real tight trading range. So what you need to do is to go down to a four-hour chart and see if it's clear. And sure it is. There it is. Just clean this up a little bit. And we're going to look at it. You'll see there's going to be your seven, eight, six, high to low, almost to the exact penny. And look at these lower highs in here, folks. Now that is what you call a trend line, okay? Look at this. This is a trend line. Just put it there, just about as perfect as you can possibly get. When you break above this, that's around 606. That market's probably going to take off because you've got a lot of supply coming in here, supply coming in here, supply coming in here. All you did today, look at this, all you did today is make a perfect ABCD again. Let's go to the 60-minute and you'll be able to see it again. Hold on one second. Let's blow it up a little bit. And here be your, there's your A. Uh-oh. I'll tell you what right now. It is going to be off by just a hair. I've seen so many of these. I can tell you right now that it misses it by quite a bit. See, there's what would be breaking it. There's what would be your breakout, but you didn't make the ABCD on this run. All you did was go up and match the seven, eight, six. That's all you did. You went right up to that seven, eight, six, never closed above it. And now you're, now you're heading down. So we still got one more chance at the wheat, but we're going to be waiting on that. The corn is really clear. I showed Marshall that and it really is a clear buy, a really good buy, folks. A friendly hello and a good buy to buy Christmas corn at 454, excuse me, 455 and put a 10-cent stop on it. I have been in this trading this business actively since my first trade was 59, but heck, I was just a freshman in college in, but by the time I was a senior in college, I was trading a lot. Anyway, I've not been to a year where we don't have one or two crop obscures and both climate change the way it is. Of course, there's not any climate change right now because with snow coming into New York, even closing the racetracks along with all the schools today in New York. But anyway, there's going to be one or two crop scares plus there might be some demand things that bring it into because corn is getting really cheap at 450. Remember it was $6 a year and a half ago and everybody wanted it. Now it's four and a half. Nobody wants it. Well, I have some good news for you folks. In about a minute and a half, there's going to be a break and then we're going to have Mr. Crude oil, our Bob and heating oil himself is going to be coming on and telling us what's going on with that market because it is one powerful puppy. That'll be Mike Moore of more analytics and he's been bullish crude for quite some time and we're going to see where it goes from here. So I think that's it. Let's double check how we're doing with the time. Oh, I got a whole minute 29 seconds. All right, let's ask the next question that someone asked about Mr. Appel. They always like Mr. Appel who's down by the well. Here's the daily all it's done today, folks is make a 61% retracement just eyeballing it. There it is right here from your lower to your high should be pretty much spot on and misses it by how much did it miss it by 183 missing by 10 cents 61% retracement. So still bullish, you know, you've got you're still bullish and way back here. You do have some lower tops in here for the first time and you got some lower bottoms in here. So it's a little suspect at this level. So there's still a chance this could roll over slight chance because everybody wants to be buying this stuff and it keeps going higher and higher and higher and higher. So we'll do one thing at a time as we go through. So now we're going to break coming up. Stay tuned for Mike Moore more analytics on Friday. I believe we're going to have Stan Harley as our guest again. We'll be right back. Stay tuned. The gold report as a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. 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Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV We're back folks and we have Mike Moore and more analytics in his lovely office it looks just like mine except for the leather couches and leather chairs and books but it looks really cool. Tell us what you're looking at Mike you've been really bullish that the gasoline and also the gasoline is going crazy today and of course the crude oil's been going up too so tell us what you're looking at what are the next levels on things. Okay you want to take a look at crude first or. That'll start out with crude we'll go on one at a time and take your time because we might have a question or two as we go through so. Okay just general picture on the crude here we've been in this corrective stage here basically since December 12th as you remember we completed this full bullish structure here and now we're in a bullish corrective or this could be considered trending but I think it's more overlapping and corrective in nature even though we're in a fifth stretch of this but today was kind of key we took out a final exhaustion level let me just bring it up to date here and trade back above 72.45 we wanted decent strength likely for days. Remember on our last show I said once we broke back well this line right here that this would warrant for strength for days possibly weeks we've been rallying pretty nicely out of there for five dollars and thirty nine cents and then another piece of that today. I said I've been worn a final possible exhaustion at 77, 76 to 79. A settlement above your increase is a likelihood of a one for 79.29 you could see that we held that twice right here with a 77, 79 high and again here 77, 79 again pulled back but now we've taken that out so that's a sign of continued strength I think we're likely going head up here to take it to 79.29 probably higher I would be very cautious of this area right here from 79.67 to 80.12 that would be a higher and lower timeframe exhaustion level if we were to hold that and roll back over that could start this in a new bearish structure and then above there we'll have other levels above that too but that's the immediate one we're looking at right now. Any questions on that you want me to move? No that's pretty good I mean it's been going up and you've been following it so that's perfect. So basically the I'm just going to do an overview real quick here I mean basically the arba here or unleaded gas is a very similar structure and structure against it and the same thing with the heating oil this similar structure and structure against it but just drilling down so I'm not going to go over those again because went over that and crude however the gas has rallied up here and is holding this exhaustion level right now that here so you can gas you could bullish it's holding exhaustion below and at 197.94 rallied 40.56 cents and then another piece of that today and then I said look for possible exhaustion the 241.36 to 328 area we're holding that right now with the 241.36 high but we were 241.34 hot so if we were to hold that and fail back down through these highs again settle back down below here that could start this in a new bearish structure otherwise if we take this area out I think we're headed higher to this upper levels but the other the other point is if we really settle above this 243.28 area that suggests that the market has a higher likelihood of actually heading back up to 255.11 regardless of possibly holding this exhaustion level on the way up Mike we have a question about that chart and that is a gentleman's asking what are those the things that the three indicators that you have there there's three levels of indicators that you have look like oscillators or something at the bottom there what are those that you're looking at Mike what are those proprietary can you tell us what those are no I'll be honest with you I rarely use these I mean they just happened down there but you know one of them down here is just a MACD and the other one's a stochastic indicator okay but you know if you're going to use those type of things to help you time trades you can often change the the parameters around them I happen to like an eight three and three instead of nine five and three but you're really going to adjust those and see how they fit in the timeframe of what you're trading okay but the point I rarely use those in my own analysis they just happen to be down there and then the heating well has gone up here we fell back down through this line so that is bearish for the heating well although immediately we broke back above here and that's bringing in very short term short covering the heating well here I said you know the exhaustion at 247.40 rallied 49.95 cents and then I'd say here then I get short on a break below 293.92 that was this line right here we rolled back over but then I said if we break below 289.80 to 59 and back above look for short coverage so we've seen some of that immediate short covering but that's just a short term thing now that we're back below this line that's bearish so if this starts to capitulate and roll over with the unleaded here holding this exhaustion level and with the crude oil holding the level and that that rolls over then we can see this hand lower but right now it's kind of it's got to show its hand one way or the other either the heating oil is really going to roll over and the rest of this stuff roll over or the strength that the crude oil is shown by settling up by breaking back above here may see some may see some higher levels before eventually rolling over. Mike is it very unusual for the heating oil to be this week in the middle of a cold winter? Yeah like you said that's why I strictly go with technicals because they often give you a heads up to what these things are doing before anything else this heating oil on the T crack was really leading the charge to the upside so you know we've been bullish distance and if you look at the past shows I've done with you Larry but just in the past five days you would have made over $6,500 more being long on the heating oil per lot than you would have the crude but it did say that if we take this level out here we'd probably see some pressure come in so we're starting to see that and we did hold this key exhaustion level up in here just picked above a little bit so this might be starting into a bearish correction itself which means that the heat would be weak relative to the crude or the crude strong relative to the heat wall and the the unleaded gas crack has also been strong start showing additional strength here today and one final thing I'll show you here is the arbaid heat spread that held this key exhaustion level right here on that green line here at 62.81 with the 63.10 low and then I said to get long above this line and this line here further projects us upward over a thousand ticks so I think that the arbaid is going to stay strong relative to the heat or the heat week relative to the arbaid meaning that if this market comes off the heat's probably going to come off harder than the arbaid okay okay it makes great sense wow doc tell us tell us what you think what is the best crack spread that you have on right now which one is acting the best long gasoline short heating oil right in here this is the strongest thing I think I'd rather be along the arbaid and short the heat that's the spread between the two but on the cracks I think that this heating crack is going to look weak right now I think this has a good likelihood of coming off we held exhaustion above up here it's a full bowl structure likely a full bowl structure completion here so I don't know really you know if it gapped open lower even even weaker okay I'll have one other great answer on that one for you no that's a hey I don't have a great answer on many things I do have a question for one of our listeners back a couple years ago when we got to minus and crude oil we're going to take a break here pay a few bills I've a question about that minus crude oil a couple years ago Mike if you might not have an answer for that either but we can ask the question hey we'll be right back Mike you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-4767523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ folks Mike pick a market and tell us what you're looking at my friend you cover a lot of them and would like to hear what you have to say well you said you had a question on the yes on the crude oil that day that it went minus twenty seven dollars because the guy couldn't have any place to put the oil and stuff did you know those people that in Singapore that were doing that because I know you have contacts all over the world I didn't know if you were familiar with what was going on there or not no I'm not acutely aware I know I was bearish going all the way down into it and and that was this was sort of the analysis I'm sure there's a one of your wow those ones before but these are the calls I made for an American oil company just being bearish down into this in fact I've gotten bearish right here on the set a dollar fifty break below forty three thirty two we'll project this downward twenty three dollars a minimum of thirty five dollars plus maximum that was from forty three dollars and that's after we just come off from sixty five there and we went on one of the negative but this is one of the reasons why you were asking me about fundamentals versus technicals there was no point at any point in the way down here that I said oh this is this can't go any lower this is too cheap or I think you should buy some here because I stay with the direction of the trend and that's what keeps you out of trouble and certainly nobody expected this to go for negative forty dollars sure but it was it was good it was only the April contract that went negative the others the marcher is still trading at seven or eight dollars a barrel right correct and you can see here on my crude oil analysis which I've been showing on the show here on four twenty nine twenty we left the bullish reversal below we've seen a hundred fifteen dollars and thirteen cents from that open at fifteen thirty seven in the July so in that very filing contract I've gotten bullish on April 29th just a number of days later after this and that's why I've updated this sentence every day since April of 2020 on my analysis because this is a larger long-term call very good okay all right let's move on to the next one that you have my friend how about gold okay do you want to look at natural gas at all or no just because oh my gosh thank you I've got a note here it was second one right after gold so natural gas is first okay natural gas first okay yes so natural gas continues to dump just keeps coming off it's sitting right now at a key exhaustion level let me just pull this one up here so right around here I talked about this morning around 167 to 166 60 it's broken below it slightly through 165 40 but that's barely a penetration for such a significant exhaustion level let me just pull my chart back up but I'm sorry I was is this a spot natural uh Mike is this spot natural gas march yes okay thank you that that's an interesting I gotta I see something that I like there okay so that's a possibility if you hold that could start another bullish correction but we've been bearish since 820 80 you've seen over $6 and 47 cents from the downside on that and then more recently if you remember on earlier shows I said if we break back down below 301 80 solidly there's a good possibility of a run for 209 80 minus and we've seen $1 20 that's a far a little bit more today so I'll still bearish these exhaustion levels are just possible areas you can take shots on getting long or wait to see if you see a bullish small bullish correct formation down here or we're holding this right now the next one down below it is not down to 135 80 or take a look at the gold uh yes sir let's take a look at the gold and the silver too if you if you have silver also I don't have silver I don't really normally analyze gold is fine gold is fine we already covered silver on the other part of the show but take a look at the gold that's great that's got a real hammering down below all this consolidation right here not a good sign for the gold I think this could be the the next stretch down get this out of here sorry sorry about that you see my climbing background um here we go we held exhaustion above at 2081 80 with a 20 20 high and rolled over 57.8 we've seen more of that today today was key because we had broken above a formation right here and it failed right back down through it which got us bearish right on the break back down below this line and really seen this move down just as a higher timeframe note I said note the December highs warned we likely put in a top in the market for the time being and are likely in a macro bearish direction against the move up from 1045 40 in 2015 if so the minimum target would be 1690 or 90 okay that would still have a long ways to go it sure does would you like to look at the S&P's you have any questions on that S&P for sure absolutely and then also if you have treasury bonds we would like to take a look at the bonds too I don't really analyze the bonds then that's okay then I won't ask that question again I know your specialty is the energy complex and I saw something in that natural gas that actually I pulled that chart up but I couldn't see if I could pull that up again so the S&P rallied up in here and just held this exhaustion level right here at 50 63 50 to 50 70 50 with a 50 66 50 high started rolling over we took out this formation right here really brought in some pressure and now we're resting right above a another significant formation this is the better probably the better drawn of it that comes in at 49 6690 as of 130 and that moves up 47 per hour starting that moves up 47 per hour we just bring this back over here okay and I warned we're likely in the last stretch of the structure up from 35 oh two upper with areas of possible exhaustion up here okay if one of those holds and this enters into a bearish correction it should exceed 512 points from the high which would still give this a lot of downside I warned in the post market synopsis that this went out warning of pressure on the day before resuming higher trades so we're seeing some of that pressure today here I said that the trade below here warns of pressure and the trade below this one 46 per hour will also project this downward 110 points plus so a break below here would project that downward 110 plus and possibly start this into something more significant also the fact that we've left the maintain gap will likely leave a maintain gap lower today leaves a minor bearish reversal above okay we have a question from Jeff in New Jersey he wants a question about what will it take for crude oil to be bearish Jeff are you on the line not exactly okay go ahead yeah I'm sorry Mike I just wanted to ask I looked at the crude oil futures term structure and it looks very steeply bearish for many many months I was curious if you knew why you know oil would be so bearish over long when you say the term structure I'm not exactly sure sure well if you looked at like a chart of every month going forward like into 2025 2026 if you look at every futures contract and where it's currently trading it's down every month it's down it's down for like a couple years okay well I mean just haven't had a chance to take a look at that in the past few it says that we normally have a long bias between January 10th in April 14th or January 10th and March 6th you're saying after that it rolls over a bit yeah for like the next year and a half two years if you look at every month in a futures contract it's lower than the previous month okay okay Jeff I'm gonna check that out too I did sound right I think you're talking about backwardation Jeff but I'll let me double check that okay and I'll I will find out thanks for joining us Mike we'll have you on again soon okay very soon thanks for joining us Mike more folks more analytics we'll be right back in 7-7 if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your 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bottoming right here as natural gas was topping but let's just measure to see how the old ABCD worked during this market we had a high up here and then we had the low in here and it measured up to 3443 and it got to 3462 so it missed it by $20 and it started down there's your first 382 retracement right here and then there's your second one right here then you come down and you go through a 382 retracement here and you explode all the way up to the 78% level this is where we are now I can't finish this today but we're going to finish it soon probably in a video tonight sending out because we're getting close we're already past the ABCD by quite a bit because we're past the 127 that tells us that this CD leg because of this gap let's just check and see if this was a 382 just for kicks and giggles there's your high there's your low oh we miss it by miss it by one dollar folks and that sets up another ABCD that is in there also there's your ab leg coming down here CD oh we're getting close here we are boys and girls we got to get ready to buy this stuff here really quickly not today but soon we're at 16570 has been the low uh yeah that that's the 1.618 boy this is a low risk it's trading at 16730 right now or I put it let me look at this on a eight minute chart just for the heck of it with my yeah there's your low down in here I'd almost buy this and put a $2 stop on it honest I would just because of that just because of that 1.618 number right there on the money I've got to buy it because that's only a $2 risk uh you're not going to watch fish women upon for $2 so I'm going to put a buy here at uh 6740 and I'm going to put a sell at uh 6540 6540 people be a new low on the day so I'm not going to risk anything other than two bucks hey let's be back tomorrow don't miss anything we're going to have Stan Harley in here pretty soon this week so live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless