 El Josep ha dit que un habitatge unit és el tipus global observatori d'organització a sobre de planet a terra del sistema de la Unió Unit. I tenim una conferència cada 20 anys i tenim la primera conferència en 76, en Vancouver, i després tenim la segona conferència en Estambul, en 96, i ara, en 2016, el nostre any, tenim la tercera Conferència Habitat 3 i serà en Quito, en Ecuador. I l'objectiu d'aquesta conferència és fer-ho una anàlisi crítica de l'evaluació de les 20 hores d'organització i una altra anàlisi prospèctica de l'organització. A veure si hi ha alguna conseqüència o algunes idees que podem transmetre a les governes nacionales, que són membres de les Unites Nations, 193, per ara, membres de les Unites Nations, de 189 llocs al món. I també, si estem requerçats, ens adreçarem els nostres advices a les governes ciutadans, els governs regionals, etcètera. Hauríem fet, en les últimes quatre anys, un esforç per analitzar com l'organització és anul·lar en l'esquena planetària lately. I la imatge no és molt bona, no és especial. No, per dir-ho d'alguna manera, l'organització és patir molt la crisi. I l'exercici més gran de l'organització que la Terra ha vist, que ha estat l'última organització xinès en les últimes 30 anys, l'organització xinès, una organització massiva que ha organitzat una cosa com 500 milions de persones, ha estat molt succesa en termes de generar guèlts, però ha estat un total error en termes de conseqüències ambientals i també, probablement, una molt mix d'outcome en termes de la integració social. Però crec que això és una cosa que veiem una mica a la presentació. Jo faré una presentació per no passar les 15 minuts. Next, where is the machine? Here. It's probably here. I have titled this conference Precautionary Tools or perhaps tips for good organization in a period of rapid urban growth. I must say that urbanization, you know, on this graph, more or less, it's growing very much in the world. Now we are something like 3.5 billion people urbanized, but what is interesting is that in the forthcoming years, we are going to have a huge process of urbanization in Africa and in parts of Asia, which is going to urbanize 3 billion more people. That means that from now to 2050, the provisions is that we are going to double the current level of urbanization, which is a huge figures, you know. In 1900, it was not really 1 billion, then in 2003.5 billion, and in 2050, 7 billion people, more or less, perhaps it's going to be 6.5, but the figures are very, very relevant. This again is the graphic of where the growth rate and the population, you see that the browns is where the growth is higher and it's here and here. The rest, in the developed world, we are already not growing. In fact, in the United States and Canada, there is still a little bit of growth because of the migrations, but in Europe stagnation, in Japan stagnation, in China, very interestingly, with the age problem demographics, there is going to be also some kind of stopping of urban growth. But then the rest of the world is going to urbanize in a very important manner. In the United Nations this year, in 2015, we have been approving now in September the 2015-2030 development agenda. You know that in the year 2000, the United Nations produced this issue that it was called the Millennium Development Goals, and the Millennium Development Goals they were supposed to be evaluated this year, in 2015. And now in this year we are, after evaluating the first 15 years, we are preparing for 2030, and those are the goals, 17 goals, which were approved in New York, and I must underline goal number 11 because for the first time in the history of development, urbanization has been taken as a tool for development. That is a breakthrough because if you talk with the development specialists, and I'm sure that there are some of you which are development specialists, they used to say that development is linked to what? Infrastructures, energy, human capital, governance, and what else? Those are the normal topics that in a list of development strategies are always listed. But for the first time we have included urbanization. And urbanization for the sake of development. Urbanization as a tool for development, which is really a conceptual framework, a change. The role of urbanization in development, it's quite clear, but it's not usually recognized, or it's not enough recognized. Eighty percent of the total GDP is generated by urban areas. The quality of urbanization is a major driver of city's value and productive capacity. A lot of the capacity of cities to generate value is related to the quality of their design. And urbanization then is not a passive outcome of development. It's a driver of development, it's a creator of development. How many of you are economists? Can you raise your hands please? No economists in the house? In the London School of Economics, there's no... Oh, goodness. You are a change. Okay. Well, urbanization generates a lot of value. It generates money. It's like a printing money machine urbanization. And that should be stressed because it's not the usual approach that sociologists, anthropologists or urbanists, when they look at the urbanization. The usual writing about urbanization is about the problems of urbanization, the ailments of urbanization. Lack of housing, lack of what, lack of that, lack of the other thing. Lack, excess of poverty, concentration of poverty, etc. But there's not enough underlying of the value that the city generates, the urban tissue generates. And it's a lot of value. Sources of urban value. Economies of location, economies of urbanization, geographic economy. And okay, then if you are not economists, either you already know that or if you don't know you go to the books and find for these topics. Then urbanization is a source of money. The London School of Economics knows that very well. Economies of globalization because of specialization, because of the proximity of the factors of production, because of the diminishing cost of transaction, it generates a lot of employment. And when the economy is moving from the primary sector, extractive agriculture and mining, to the secondary sector, industry, to the tertiary sector, services, and in the tertiary sector to the most advanced services, like knowledge economy, the role of urbanization in this process is increasing, is not decreasing, is increasing. Then the future society and its capacity to regenerate value is very much related to urbanization. And the pity is that the quality of urbanization to develop growth and prosperity is related to the quality of its design. Not every kind of urbanization produces the same output. Okay? Then the question mark is, what can I do with my urbanization in order to maximize the capacity production? Eh? Well, here is where we come with some tools or tips for urbanization, but I am going to jump up, and I am going to talk some strategies that after learning of our many mistakes in the past, advising countries and nations and cities and the world, we have learned. What we are proposing now is a national urban policy approach. Why? Because one of the first things that we have learned in our mistakes is that usually the national government is not aware of the relevance and importance of the national government in the quality of urbanization. The national government ministers, presidents, etc. usually they think that the quality of urbanization depends only on the mayor. And if there's something, there's a problem in a city or in a cities, in general, there's a problem of the mayor because it's stupid, it's lazy, it's from the opposition, whatever. But the central government doesn't have the feeling that the central government has anything to do with the quality of urbanization. And this is totally wrong. Contrary to these ideas that the mayors will run the wall, etc. The question nowadays is that the national governments are the level of governments that they establish the rules of the game. They establish the decentralization, the financing capacities of local authorities, the power capacity assigned to the mayors, then the national government in the current existing political circumstances, it has a very important role in the quality of the output of cities. But the issue is that most of the people in the national government, including the president and the ministers, no saben sobre això. I then we have here a kind of autism, a kind of lack of communication, of understanding what is the role of everyone. The national government establish the degree of decentralization, the responsibilities of a level of government, coordination between sub-national levels, the structure of financing of the different levels of administration, the determination of the public debt capacity, including of course cities and urban legislation. And all that is crucial, but I can add more things. I can say that the national policy is establishing the security policy of the country, which then is very important in the city, the migration policy of the country that then is very important on the city. Whatever you can imagine that it's done by a central government, it affects the quality of urbanization. Ok, I think that I can skip that. Once that being said, the other thing that we have done is to analyze what is urbanization and why urbanization has been failing so systematically in terms of producing outcomes of interest in the world in the last years. And we have come with a three-prong approach based on three, to reach proper urbanization, we need to build three kinds of legs to sustain proper urbanization. One is rules and regulations, the other is proper physical design, urban planning, and then is financial design. Unfortunately, in too many occasions, when somebody asks a consultant, a firm, or somebody to go to a city in the developing world to help the country or the mayor to improve the organization, usually it's master planning or urban design. But this sectorial approach is not delivering the transformative capacity in order to change the panorama of urbanization. And this is because there's not a clear understanding that urbanization at the end is a political affair. It's the outcome of different parts that intervene in the urbanization process. And the most important one, because urbanization is a human creation, is the capacity to interact in the society and establish the contract, the social compact, the social pact that allows for the possibility of living together in a compact form. In a city, you have so many agendas, everybody has an agenda, but not just individually, also collectively or corporationally or whatever. Then what is important is really to mix together the rules and regulations, the physical design and the financial plan. And you know that in architecture, the three-legged artifacts, like this thing, is the most secure one, because even if the floor is not flat, the tripod is the best manner to guarantee the stability of an artifact. And then you can... You can... A little bit, variate the length of every one of the legs. You know, to balance a four-legged table is very difficult. And you end up putting paper and whatever. But guaranteeing the stability of a tripod, it's very easy. Then this is why I have chosen this image as the idea that for proper urbanization, we need the three things. Rules and regulations. This is a photo, this is a real photo of Wagadugu. I don't know if you can see it. Wagadugu is a very poor city in Africa, and you see that it was a government until here. And then it changed the government. Do you see the difference of the government? Where do you prefer to live? Here or here? The interesting thing is that this was the previous government. And this is the current government. That means that things can go worse. Not always necessary things go better. Then rules and regulations is very important. Land regulation, regulations for the public protection of the public space, regulations of everything. Plotting regulations, building codes. There's no need to explore that, but in our analysis of urbanization, rules and regulations is the most lacking aspect of urbanization. More than design, it's rules and regulations. In many countries there are too many rules. They copy developed countries or legislation. This kind of legislation, when you copy to a political local place, it's useless. And then you have plenty of lawyers who learn how to work out the regulation and to do whatever the urban developer wants to do. And then there's no authority, there's no rules of the game. A lot of legislation, wrong legislation, implemented partially and just at the end, as if there were no legislation. Urban design. Well, for me, I need to explain a little bit for that. For me, master planning is not urban planning. I repeat, for me, master planning is not urban planning. For me, urban planning is that. The essence of urbanization is the proper design of public space. And, second, the provision of well-structured building plots. And that is what is the city. Master planning, zoning, codification of land, all that, is not urban planning. For me, urban planning is, urban planning and design, is the correlation between the design of the public space and the design of the buildable plots. And this is what constitutes the urban fabric, the addition of the public space and the buildable plots in the form of a city. Well, sorry, let's go back. Here, I must say that this is one of the biggest failures in urbanization in the world nowadays. There's no urban planning. In many countries where they are urbanizing fast. Why? Because nobody has the sense that has the duty of providing urban planning. The local authorities, they are too weak. The investors and the developers, they are, you know, attracted to the city by the mayor. The mayor puts a red carpet if an investor is around. And then when the investor is there, the mayor gives to the investor a big plot and to say, do whatever, but please invest in my city. And nobody cares about urban design. And if you don't have urban design, you will not be surprised if you find African cities or Asian cities that even they are very poor, they became congested immediately. Because we have measured the public space in a city and the public space in a planet city for streets alone. It usually is around 30%. But in the emerging spontaneous urbanization of the poor countries urbanization, the public space is around 10%. That means that there is a huge lack of provision of public space and its connectivity. Financial plan. If there is no financial plan to sustain the cost of urbanization, urbanization decays and the city in itself decays. This is the third leg of the process. And at national level, we propose national urban policies, as I said before. At local level, at city level, we propose planet city extensions. Planet city extensions has disappeared of the history of urbanization. It's not in fashion anymore. What is in fashion is urban projects. But not planet city extensions. And as the urbanization is going very fast, we need to have big extensions, like the ones in these cities that I'm showing here, where to take in the huge growth of urban population for the coming years. There's no way that a weak city can plan the fabric of the urbanization project by project. Key for planet city extensions, an efficient street pattern, a clear and well-defined public space in sufficient quantity and adequate subdivisions enable different typologies of buildings and foshions. I draw the image of the planet city extension in a big scale, because only with big extensions you can alter, for example, the land market of the city. Because doing small projects, project by project, you keep this irrationality of the prices in cities, where even in an African city you can pay for a flat the same price of even more that in London or in New York. And this is because there's no such a provision of sufficient supply of urban planning in order to change the conditions of the market. I see the public space as the ying and yang in the Oriental tradition in the sense that our advice is that the public space should, let's say, streets and parks should be nearly 50% of the land of the city. 30% for the streets, 15% for open spaces. An strict connectivity of 100 between 110 strict crossings per kilometre a square. A strict width of human scales, never more than 60-80 metres for big streaks, predominant width pattern between 20 and 30 metres. 20 metres is New York, 30 metres is Washington. No less than 18, never less than 18 metres of width. Because we are in the 21st century. We are not in the Roman period, where the cities were of two, the streets were of three metres or two and a half metres. Parks and open space, the rest. Then the ying and yang, when you do the drawing of urban design, it converts in like that, where the dark, it's 50% and the white, it's 50%. Okay? You know where is that? Which city is this one? Yes, you have got it. Paris, this is L'Etoile. Well, public space streets rather than roads, human scale of course, walkability instead of this density and compactness. A wealth production capacity of urbanization is related to the quality of design of the urban space. Precaucionari density, to get value in urbanization, it's around 10 to 15, at least 10 to 15 inhabitants per kilometre a square. Most of the urbanization built today in the world is at the scale of 4,000 inhabitants per square kilometre. We are manufacturing a kind of urbanization that is not productive enough. In order to generate economies of aglomeration, by the way, economies of aglomeration of geographic economies, was the reason why Krugman was given the Nobel Prize on economy. In order to have economies of aglomeration, we need certain level of compactness. And when in a city we need certain level of compactness, we need good design. Because if we have compactness and we don't have good design, we have overcrowding. It's one reason to have architects in this world. I am finishing, just a second. Another problem in the developing world is that you go to the mayor and said we need to urbanize. You should urbanize, it's impossible, we don't have money. This is a fallacy. Urbanization generates money. Then you need to have a value-sharing system in order to have the money needed to invest in urbanization. You don't need external money. You don't need money falling from heaven to build the cities. You need a political system to share the value generated by the urbanization in order to invest in the cost of urbanization. For me, like Landry and Joshman or other technologies of acquiring public space, because this is the main problem in Nairobi where I live, the percentage of land for the streets is 10%. They need to multiply by 3. And I say, why don't you acquire or why don't you do more streets? No, it's very expensive because we need to expropriate it. Of course, in order to acquire the public land you need to expropriate, in a poor country you never will have the public land. We need to find alternative means of acquiring public space. And the alternative means of acquiring public space is landry adjustment. Where the... Sir? Ah, I'm finishing, you know? Just a minute. As I am a medical doctor, now I am going to just show you... I mean, you know what is this? This is a body cut in a section at this level, okay? This is the heart, and this is the two lungs, and this is a lung cancer, lung cancer. And those are the nodules of the lung cancer. Usually all that should be black. All the... all the arrows are the metastases of the lung cancer. And I compare that to the metastatic city when the driver of the urban growth is only the land price. People begin to invest here or here or here because the land is cheap. Instead of following the narrative of urban planning and design. Well, I am finishing. This is the last one. Okay, the tyranny of the international model of architecture. You have here four photos. One is Istanbul, the other is Mexico City, the other is Lagos, and the other is Mumbai. Can you tell me which one of those eats, for example, I don't know? Mexico. Which one? Yeah, one because it's Mexican, eh? This is Istanbul, this is Mexico, this is Lagos, and this is Mumbai. One of the problems of the current architecture of today in making cities is the lack of culture, the lack of personality, the lack of identity, and the market orientation of whatever is done in the cities. There is not really a focus on what is needed for the population. It's kind of upper class, you know, or these in Lagos. Imagine these in Lagos, you know. It's just, it's a joke, it's a joke. It's a joke of bad taste. And this is my last... This is my last advice to all of you. Urbanization doesn't come from heaven. It's a human creation, it's a design creation, which is legal design, physical design and financial design, and it comes by choice, not by chance. Thank you.