 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, Covenancy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's Supply and Demand, Horace and Gold, Fundamental and Technical Analysis. So if you're new, a warm welcome to you and if you're returning, an equally warm welcome to you. And let's get into the economic calendar for this week and what's coming up. And this is from ING and so we'll get into the rest of the calendar on trading economics, but I like ING's analysis. And so this week we have a strong possibility of the Fed reversing costs. So markets are increasingly doubtful that the Fed will be able to high crates much further, but that could yet change after the upcoming CPI report this week. Another 0.4% month-to-month figure on the core CPI, more than double the rate required over time to take the US back to 2% year-on-year inflation target, could nudge expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting higher. And we still, but they still think the Fed would prefer to raise rates at least once more should financial conditions allow, but they see a strong possibility that a reverses course and cuts rates by 100 basis points later in the year as ever tightening, sorry, ever tighter lending conditions, higher borrowing costs, weak business sentiment and a deteriorating housing market all way on growth and rapidly dampen price pressures. So there's that going on for the, yeah, all eyes are going to be on CPI for the US in Canada. The Bank of Canada are widely expected to leave rates unchanged next week, having signalled that rates are already likely at the peak. The downside risk for global growth in the wake of recent banking turmoil only making it more likely that the next move for the central bank will be an interest rate cut will be the next move is likely. And Eurozone, February data will be key. So for the Eurozone, it is an important week to get a sense of how GDP has developed over the first quarter. And one of the things about data, you know, when they release GDP data, it's normally for the previous quarter. And so because there's a lot of data that they have to analyze. So you typically get the first quarter data in the quarter on quarter in the second quarter. So then you normally get the third quarter data in sorry, the second quarter data in the third quarter. So I'll repeat that again. You get the first quarter data for the in the second quarter and you get the second quarter data in the third quarter. Yeah. And so, yeah, so industrial production and retail sales figures are both up for February. Following a rise in January, they were sorry, they were up only moderately though and given the volatile numbers. These numbers are February data will be key to determining whether we will see a quarterly growth for the most timely consumption and production figures. So that's the those are the really the main upcoming events also as well. Sorry, meant to go to here on the economics calendar. And we do have it was I would add to that as well would be employment unemployment rate for Australia on Thursday the 13th as well as GDP month a month as well for the UK will be definitely worth watching and potentially market moving. And so with that being said, moving on to the US dollar in fact, not gold, the dollar, right? So as we heard from ING and they're just one bank that we that we look at, they expect really the Federal Reserve to probably hike, you know, one more time and then start to pause and potentially actually cut rates towards the end of the year. And so for me, my bias is to continue to to still short the dollar on pullbacks, right? And this is just the dollar index. So measure of dollar strength against the basket of current season. So because my bias is for short trades, I'm really looking at just supply zones and confluences within those supply zones. One of the reasons I do like is in here and also as well, it has the added confluence of the top end of that zone. I think your top end of that zone has the added confluence of some major support and resistance. So you know that prices have been traded in and around these zones here. And so if we do get any kind of pullback to this zone, to the top end of that supply zone, I do think that that's nice. Also as well, you can use intraday support and resistance wherever you want to use them. But I'm not going to get into that. It's probably more looking at the overall bias. And so that's really where my bias is in terms of looking at any kind of dollar confluences for a sell, right? So yeah, Fed rates, hiking rates soon to pause. And so yeah, let's go on to the, actually matter of fact, before I go on to the dollar yen, there was this article. Summers says recession probabilities rising, right? And so it's not just ING that's saying this, you know, Larry Summers, who is the former Treasury chief, very smart man, you know, says that the probability of recession is rising. So the Fed nearing the end of their hiking cycle. So former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the likelihood of a recession is rising after a series of weak economic indicators and that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its series of interest rate hikes. And he says, what's pretty clear is that we're in a very late innings of the current tightening cycle. Summers said on Bloomberg's television's Wall Street Week with David Westin, whether that's going to be another move necessary, another move necessary or not. I think that's a judgment they should be holding off until the very last kind of moment, he said, of Fed policymakers whose next decision comes May the 3rd. The Summers discounted Friday's March job report, which he said reflected the strength of the economy early in the first quarter, but is now less relevant, is now less relevant given prospects of a tightening in credit. The data showed another firm game for US payrolls with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.5. But by contrast, weaker than expected, purchasing manager surveys for manufacturing and services released this week showed a bigger slowdown in activity than expected. The ISMs factory gauge hit the lowest level since spring of 2020. Other data this week showed a slide in job openings and an increase in the trend for jobless claims. So there's definitely cracks, you know, in the economy. And so again, that just kind of backs up if the obviously data has to support the narrative. Of course, this isn't a foregone conclusion that it's definitely going to, you know, go into a recession. We just have to understand that, you know, things move and tend to move in cycles and if the cycle and forecast are correct, then, you know, we can kind of forecast what may happen or the smartest minds do. And we just ride on the coattails, right? So, you know, that's really, you know, where we are from a dollar perspective. So going to the dollar yen, this was last week's analysis. We're saying that I did want to be a buyer of the or I was in this trade. In fact, I think it stopped out for just a little bit better than break even. But yeah, I wanted to get back in this trade and I actually missed my opportunity as I was actually doing some some analysis. And by the time I look back, I kind of missed the entry, but it doesn't matter anyway because there's always going to be an opportunity to get back inside this. So I missed out on that trade, which was actually a profitable trade. But if prices do actually come back to these zones here, I do think that that for me is going to be a sell. I do like a sell or buy on the Japanese yen over the dollar as the end of yield curve control potentially may happen between any time now and June. But again, they have to support that narrative. Even if inflation in Japan keeps going higher, then then that puts pressure on the Bank of Japan and the new governor to want to end yield curve control and monetary current monetary policy and change it, which then means a stronger yen. And so yes, at a Fed soon to pause their rates and the Bank of Japan holding rates possible yield curve adjustment and actually, you know, forecasts are saying that potentially you could head back down to the one two sevens at some point. But who knows in the short term what may happen just short term trading is more to do with just positioning for the medium to long term. So that's where my bias is. If you do want to be a buyer of the dollar, though, you know, you've got that demand zone right there. And yeah, decent or actually probably any time now. So any pull back into that zone and then a move to the upside if you feel you want to be a buyer of the yen over, sorry, the dollar over the yen. Dollar Swiss Swiss Frank, you know, increasing in strength probably due to some dollar weakness and probably maybe a bit of risk off sentiment as well. So at the moment that level has broken. So I think the next really zoned down if we're looking at zones is going to be all the way back from August the 31st. Now I'm not a fan of trading, you know, supplying demand zones, old, quite, you know, old demand zones, unless you actually have a reaction. So I'd like to see a reaction from there, which it does look like it's reacting. It's not really a pet. I'm trading. But if I was, I'd want to see a reaction from that zone and prices really kind of move to the upside and then wait for a pullback. So that at least I know that, you know, there's, there's some demand there. But fundamentally, I don't really want to be a buyer of the and I'm not being a buyer really of the Swiss Frank at the moment. Of course, and I say not a buyer of Swiss Frank. I mean, not against the dollar, but there are pairs that there's a pair that I'm interested in potentially buying the Swiss Frank against. But let's be on the scope of this video. So in a risk-off environment, of course, as well, right? And so, yeah, I think any pullbacks, if you're looking to buy the Swiss Frank, you're looking at that area of supplier right there and then any, any move back inside that zone there would be a decent selling opportunity on this pair. Dollar CAD, dollar CAD again with oil, you know, this week at the beginning of the week pretty much, you know, surprising to everybody in Canada being supported by that. We didn't have, you know, that level just didn't, you know, hold or was less likely to hold. We've come down to a zone which ultimately again didn't really hold, although we did get a bit of a reversal or pullback in this zone here. So for now, I guess you can kind of say that there is a bit of demand in this area. Not necessarily draw demand like that, but there's definitely demand there. And if you do want to be a buyer of the US dollar, then that's really where you're looking to probably look to buy first, right? Not the strongest area of demand, probably if I was looking to buy the US dollar, it might be somewhere down at these, these lows here. But yeah, if you want to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar, then unfortunately, there's a long way to go, which is pretty much all the way up at these highs from a supply and demand perspective. Or you'd have to really wait for price to maybe make a new low like this. For example, wait for a pullback into a supply zone and then wait for, and then look for a short trade around there. So again, the Bank of Canada looking to pause rates, in fact sort of. So you'd think in the short term that the US dollar should, should, should at least want to hold its own against the Bank of Canada in terms of interest rate differentials. But it really depends on how aggressive the market is pricing in rate cuts in the future. So there's that. The New Zealand dollar, very interesting pair. And so we, you know, prices did come up actually to this supply zone right ahead of the, the RBNZ meeting. And so the Kiwi jumps after RBNZ delivers surprise half point rate hike. And so the central bank's inflation is still too high and persistent and doesn't want borrowing costs, costs led lower by wholesale rates. And so, yep, they definitely surprised the market by raising, raising interest rates by 50 basis points, maintaining its pace of tightening to tame inflation, even as the economy heads towards a recession and the currency jumped in the short term. But as we see later on prices actually had come down. Now I've made a video as to the explanations as to, you know, why that can happen, right? Why good news, but bad price for its fundamental analysis explained. So it's definitely worth watching this video. But is the New Zealand dollar still a buy? Even though prices have pulled back, I think so. Because, well, in the, I would say more in the context of understanding risk, less risk on, right? I'm sorry, less risk off, risk off. Let me get my words out. Less risk off. So if, let's say, for example, China, you know, starts to grow and, you know, global GDP is seen as growing as well. Then that benefits the New Zealand dollar. And in fact, there's a lot of forecasts that state that the New Zealand dollar should appreciate eventually against the dollar as the dollar starts to end its cycle and potentially actually go into its cutting cycle towards the second half of the year. So maybe, in fact, this area, this price, the 60.6247, is it might not be the best area to look for buy trades, but if prices do come down to the 61s, right? That, in fact, could be a really nice potential buy in anticipation of the Federal Reserve looking to cut rates into the second half of the year, because we're already like in April at the moment. In April at the moment. Let me turn that off. Right. So, pound dollar, pound dollar. So the pound, again, last week, we were looking at, you know, this analysis, looking at potential pullback into a demand zone before going higher. Of course, prices really didn't pull back. The strength of the pound at the moment is a lot. It's really outperforming. And so the Bank of England says business inflation expectations eased slightly in March. So prices outlook stabilizing as firms predict one more rate rise. And so business uncertainty improving and BOE's March DMP Survey fines. And so, yeah, the UK economy has surprised everybody. It really has. And so it was expected to actually be one of the worst economies in the G10. And it just totally reversed. It's it's fortunes. And and so I think any pullbacks into the into this demand zone is a demand zone. In fact, that supply zone has been taken out, but it's demand zone right here. But I would prefer if prices came back down to where you have the confluence really of some support there and moving fair value. And so if I see prices come down to this one, two, two or one, two, three is somewhere around here. One, two, three is yet around the area. Then that's probably for me again, not financial advice. I'll be looking for a potential buy in there or it comes out a bit deeper. I think that's going to be quite nice as well for a buy by trade. Euro dollar, Euro dollar. Again, ECB are looking at being probably the most aggressive. And when they are the most aggressive central bank in terms of hiking rates, you know, looking for getting a pullback might not be come soon. But hopefully it does. And we're just making these higher highs and higher lows. And so again, from a chart perspective, it doesn't look pretty when you're drawing demand zones. It really doesn't. In fact, all of this is like demand as well. But again, one of the things you can do, one of the things that we do is just add support and resistance. It's not the only thing we do to look for the best areas of support and resistance and supply and demand. But it's just one of the things that can help you out in differentiating within that zone where prices may likely to bounce from. And so with that being said, I think any pullbacks on the Euro dollar are decent. I think probably a deeper pullback into this 107s, I think is probably the cheaper of the zones. I think that's probably like fair value between this high and this low, right? So if you take that high, that low and look at where the auction is. So I think the 10750s are going to be a nice fair value. Let me just see if prices have really pulled back to fair value. Yeah, they pulled back to fair value after that move there. So they could do right here as well down to that 107s, down into that 10720s. So I think that area there is going to be quite nice. But the first area maybe is to start to look for me anyway to start to look for any kind of trades around that 108. Area. So yeah, that's where we are. Fundamentally, you've got the ECB certainly isn't done with interest rate hikes not says and hasn't yet made up mind if 25 or 50 basis points will be needed in May. So that's where is the, I think there's obviously the Federal Reserve and looking at hiking by 25 points basis points max. Whereas the ECB are looking at 25 or 50. So you can see how, you know, hawkish they are in terms of hiking rates and the possibilities. Whether they do or they don't is a different thing. But the fact that they're talking about is very hawkish. And so for me, I'm going to stay. My bias is going to stay for any kind of long trades on pullbacks on that one. Aussie dollar and the Australian dollar. Again, they hiked rates. Sorry, they held rates this week actually held rates. And so the but they would kind of like a hawkish hold a bit of a hawkish hold. And so the RBA's low says pause doesn't imply rate hikes are over. So low says board expects further tightening may well be needed and I'll be prepared to slightly slower return of inflation to target. So there are some, I guess, some counter arguments to them hiking. But if he's leaving the door open for more hikes, if inflation doesn't come down or if it stays sticky. And so this potentially could be a decent buy any pullbacks to the 66 levels, 66 cent level or just below that are going to be decent buying opportunities for the Australian dollar, especially with the with the prospect of China reopening. So let's see what happens with with that again, buying the US dollar. If you want to be a buyer of the US dollar, then you do have a supply zone and that one's gone. And so the one further up hasn't quite reached that. So you probably want to see prices, you know, come up to around the 0.68 68 cent area before looking at going short. So that's the first level that you really want to look for. The second one would be up by the 69s. But if I had to have a bias on this over the medium to long term, it's going to be on the Australian dollar and finally gold and gold. Again, looking for a pullback. If you're shorting that dollar, then, you know, you're trying to go long on gold, right? And looking for a pullback into demand, fortunately didn't happen, but it does create higher highs. And so with higher highs being created, demand zones are created, right? So with all that area that being demand, and in fact, that area of supply, which was from way back in April 2022 a year ago. Really, I think the nearest area of supply is going to be way back here. So we're into it. And in fact, anyways, into that high. So if you do want to get short on gold, then pretty much anytime from now, but I think the path in this resistance is to the downside. I think it's now starts to, every time it goes higher, you know, prices look cheaper down here. So obviously the goal is to buy for a cheaper price. You don't want to necessarily buy at highs or sell at lows. So so yeah, that's pretty much where we are any kind of pullbacks into that zone. In fact, again, it's created a nice area of support and resistance within that zone. So that's a little bit of added confluence in terms of the the technicals. And so, yeah, I think that's pretty much it. Do we have some news yet? I thought I had some some news. So China expands the gold reserves at central bank for fifth month. And so holdings at people's bank of people's bank rise to more than 2000 tons and precious metals hits highest in more than a year this week. And so, you know, China's boosted its gold reserves for the fifth straight month, extending efforts by the world's central banks to boost their holdings of the precious metal. So, you know, central banks aren't just going to buy gold for, you know, for no reason because they're looking at price. No, they're the entities that are driving price, right, contributing to driving price. So they're getting in early. And so if they're continuing to buy, right, that makes all the sense in the world from a fundamental perspective, from a price perspective. Obviously, you know, you don't want to buy at the highest. You want to buy on pullbacks just because prices pull back doesn't mean that the Chinese government and Chinese people's bank of China are selling gold. It doesn't mean that at all. If they're buying, they're buying to hold, right? They're not buying to sell. They tend to look, you know, years into the future to do their buying, right? And so because they're buying in such large quantities, they're not trading gold in terms of, you know, just buying here and selling here. You know, when they're buying to store, there's a lot that goes into storing gold and, you know, trying to store 2000 tons just to, you know, next week try to get rid of it all. That doesn't make any sense. So price, yeah, is not, you know, always reflected as value and the value isn't always reflected in price. And so any kind of pullbacks in gold, I think are going to be nice buying opportunities, especially if you can pull back down to this 1940 area and even better and even cheaper would be obviously the 1910s as banks again continue to buy gold, right? So that's it for this week. I hope you had a great trading week last week and hope you have a great trading week. This week I want to welcome all the new members as well to the Discord group. A warm welcome to you all. If you do want to join the Discord group, unfortunately, we're closed until the next enrollment. And so hopefully, you know, I can work with you then. Don't know when it might be. It might be maybe July, August, who knows? But yeah, I'll focus on the guys that are in the group and get them up to speed and hopefully turn them into some profitable traders, which you can also watch a couple of a few interviews that I've done recently with traders on the YouTube channel. In fact, what I'm going to do is I'm going to add one of the interviews now to the end of this video and, you know, they'll basically talk about their experience with me in trading 180 and the mentoring. And, you know, there's some others as well that I've released on my YouTube channel. So for the guys that do want to join, I will probably have to, you know, open up again, maybe in July, August times. And so, but I'll keep you updated in an email or on this channel. So, guys, take care. All the best. Speak soon and have a great trading week. I think I've got the record of the straight losses. 48 straight losses. 40. I remember he's here. Yeah. 40. I think I've got that record. I don't I'm trying to use someone to break that record. I don't think I was breaking. I thought I thought mine was bad. I thought because I had one point. When was it? It was when I first started probably maybe about 15 or 16 losses in a row. And I know how that felt. So I can't imagine even getting to something like 20, let alone 40. Yes. 40 straight losses. The good thing is that I had no idea what I was doing. I was listening. I was listening to a couple of people's ideas on trading. It just wasn't working out and I was kept on going back. Yeah, it just it wasn't working out. Hi, my name is Leon Rowe. Come and see Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com. And in this video, I have Alexandros who is a Trading180 member. Been with me for a while. Haven't you, Alexandros? How long have you been in the group? Yes. Every year, January 12th from 2022. 22 and you were a lifetime member, weren't you? Yes. Yes, yes, yes. And yeah, I thought I would ask Alexandros for an interview because I know he's been doing quite well at Trading180. And you have a really good community and he is a valuable member of Trading180 community. And you know, I value Alexandros's opinion, analysis. We're always learning from each other, right? And it's great to have you on the call, Alexandros. Welcome. Thank you, Leon. Yeah, brilliant. So, Alexandros, tell me about how you actually got into trading. Into trading. Yeah. I'll just give a quick brief history about myself on how I end up getting into trading. I work from the age of 14 as a refrigeration technician. And over the past few years, my body was getting tired on me. I'm almost 50. So it's a matter of age where I am still going to continue working in my trade. But I just needed something new in my life. And I needed something to just sort of change something that to have something more like a better income. And I found trading. He actually came to me on the site. It was an advertising site somewhere on the internet. And I just thought money online, something like that. A lot of people sort of fall into this. Yeah, we all do. As I'm getting older, maybe as I'm approaching my pension years, I could sort of start from now getting ready towards those years and sort of have a more easy life as I go out to service calls, sort of take it easier and have a backup more relaxed type of income. Yeah, that's how I sort of got started into trading. Oh, brilliant. So before you met me, how long were you trading for? About a year, roughly a bit more. I was doing a lot of, I was trying to do a lot of reading. The hard thing was because I consider myself very uneducated. I finished high school. Basically, high school to me was more of a, it wasn't my strongest point. Mathematics always was. Okay. It's my only strongest point. And classic woodwork, metalwork, working with my hands. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Excellent. Excellent. My strongest points. Yeah, and that's what sort of helped me, sort of, I'll try to sort of get into trading into that. Okay. Only with those, yeah. So you were trading for a year before you met me. So that's, you're still fairly like a baby in the trading world, you know, still quite young. Yeah. In the trade, in trading years, you know, before you met me. So how did you, how did you find trading 180? Wow. This is, this is what clicked to me. I was going through a lot of videos online, YouTube videos. And what stood you out was, even to this day, like I still think about that video, because like I'm uneducated, especially with terms, the terminology seems very, very difficult for me to, to understand. It's the way you were teaching your, you showed a video of you teaching someone and that, and when I saw that, I saw how you approached the student. I thought, I thought that was, that was like, to me, I said, this person's good. Like the way he's approaching him, he's coming down to his level, he's explaining to him. That just, I said, I want this guy. Like this guy, that's what sort of want me to sort of come into and see what's Leon all about. And, and, and he sounds good. It sounds what I want. Like, like someone that's ready to go into an environment where, where there's people with a lot of knowledge I'll be competing against and trying to understand from people that understand a lot and you had those basics that sort of really helped that person that you were teaching. I think, I think it was a video with Lawrence. I'm not sure if it was, it was a couple of years ago, but it was around the lockdown period. Okay. Maybe a bit after, but I'm not sure. Not sure. Right. Okay. Yeah. Cause you know, with things like fundamental analysis, especially fundamental analysis, it there, as you say, there is a lot of terminology and you can kind of go into a lot of tangents, right? We know it's a, it's a, it's a vast subject. And ultimately, you know, how I found my success in, in, in understanding fundamental analysis is try just to simplify things, right? Get things as simple as possible. And, and I found that and I have to shout out my mentor, right? Who's Mark Chapman. He, he did that for me. And so, and I know what happened, you know, to me in my life. So I would want to give back to, you know, other traders. And so the way that he broke things down is the way that I kind of do the same thing for, for everyone that, you know, I, I, I mentor. And I guess a question I would ask you would be, you know, obviously on, on everyone goes through this, I went through this where you watch hundreds and hundreds of videos, right? On YouTube and you're thinking, you know, which strategy should I use? Should I take this bits from here, bits from there, et cetera, et cetera. But at some point, you have to put the, what you learn in practice, right? Now, many traders tend to just, I guess, get lost in the wilderness in terms of just that video YouTube top arena. How would you describe, I guess, the difference between just watching videos and trying to learn that way from actually being mentored by somebody and real mentorship, not just being in a room with a thousand traders and, you know what I mean? And, and, you know, chat room and it's just confusion and anarchy where it's actual mentoring where the, where you're, where I respond to your questions, I speak to you on a weekly basis. What's the difference between the two? This I learned so with one, with one basic outcome, my outcome, and I say this and I say it and I have mentioned this to a couple of traders in our group. I think I've got the record of the straight losses, 48 straight losses. 40, I remember he said, yeah. 40, I think I've got that record. I don't, I'm trying to use someone to break that record. I don't think I was breaking the record. I thought, I thought mine was bad. I thought, because I had one point. When was it? It was when I first started probably about 15 or 16 losses in a row and I know how that felt. So I, I can't imagine even getting to something like 20, let alone 40. Yes, 40 straight losses. The good thing is that I had no idea what I was doing. I was listening, I was listening to a couple of people's ideas on trading and it just wasn't working out and I was kept on going back. Yeah, it just, it wasn't working out. But, but the good thing is what it's, it's coming to terms with it and having one thing I always had is, is knowing how to keep a low risk management, like keeping my risk management. That's, that's comes from a different part of character. So it's, yeah, yeah, that's kept, that's, that things kept me in the game. That thing, that, yeah. Okay. So the difference between maybe learning from video and being mentored, you would say is what specifically, like, you know, the gap between the two. So what, so if we go, you know, what, what is it that you would say is, When you, when you put fundamental fundamentals, basically understanding when, when we do, we do forex and when we're doing forex, we have to come to understand what, how banks think move markets, what they're thinking, if they're, how they're moving, if they're agreeing, if they're not agreeing, is there a divergence? Isn't there a divergence? And getting all that information, even the slightest little term can turn markets completely around, putting all that on a chart, coming to a point where you know that, looking at, looking at a couple of weeks ago, what's been happening fundamentally at that point, how prices auctioned at a certain area, creating, as I'm saying, if something's developing, you're understanding its development and taking advantage of that specific point because you know that fundamentally markets agree or don't agree and it will create a divergence or some type of movement because you have put that on a chart and it's kept on, it's kept on, it's kept us informative to move in that direction. I know my terminology, I don't have great terms, but I know past year it's been because of, I've been reading for you from, from the group and trading one, like it's helped me develop more into my, my terms. Brilliant. So, so under, so understand of mentoring is, I guess, helped you get a bit more feedback, you know, in terms of clarifying maybe your thoughts, things like, you know, asking for guidance because trading can be a very lonely, or it is a very lonely endeavor, right? And so you're, you're kind of in your own head, aren't you? A lot of the time you're thinking, oh, and it's great that you can kind of maybe bounce off of other traders in the group, et cetera, right? Whereas if you're just watching videos, it's, if it wasn't for the group, like it's the mentorship, how each week you come, you speak with us, you answer our questions, and then there's the group, Ken spends, these guys are unbelievable. They're like, they, they, I, how many times I take off my hat for Ken? He's, he's always, every time I say something. Salute to Ken. Yes, he knows I love him, he knows. And everyone, and everyone in the group, you know, Spencer, Lawrence, you know what I mean? Everyone, Lawrence, yes, they, they, every time, I leave, yes, every time there's something there that I have an idea on, I always express my opinion. I know I might be wrong, I might be right. This is the beautiful thing about trading my needy, that, that, that it's a group that people either agree or disagree, we can, we can disagree, which is very hard to find in the community that when you, when you're disagreeing with people, they tend to be a misunderstanding, which I've seen in another type of community. But this is the group that, that, that things go really nice. Like even people can understand and disagree on good terms. You know, there's no, it's, it's everybody in the group and tends to sort of, it blends out nicely. It blends out nicely. Yeah, and it's interesting that you say that, right? In terms of people can have different views. Typically, we have the same views, right? Yes. But there are times where, I remember one time, I think it was when, when I think I must have been short on the euro, I think Ken was long on the euro. Yes. And so, you know, yeah, it's not, it's not, it's not personal. It's, it's, I have my, you know, idea, he has his trade ideas and I think Spencer might have been maybe against me at one point, maybe on a pound or something like that. But at the end of the day, it's really about learning from myself, but also as well enhancing, you know, your skills. Because, you know, I'm always of the case of teacher man to fish or catch a man a fish and eats for a day, teach a man to fish and eats for a lifetime, right? That's the whole point. And so if suddenly, you know, the worst was to happen if I stopped trading 180 or just disappear, I wouldn't never just disappear, but if anything was to happen, you guys have got the skills and the knowledge and the resources to make your own decisions and for better or for worse, you know, continue trading, you know, profitably and successfully, right? Exactly like that. Yeah. Excellent. So, so how does fund, how did fundamentals because we use fundamentals and technicals, but specifically we're more fundamentally driven, right? Yeah. What is it about fundamental analysis that really kind of helps with your technicals? Putting it on a chart and knowing and knowing and I'm not going to say looking into like and knowing where it's going to go because nobody knows what direction the market's going to go. That's that's 100% sure. But understanding that how it's going to lead into that direction because as soon as we know that or as soon as we can sense by certain data that a certain number might come out, certain reading might come out, we know where it can affect which actually we by looking at a chart and putting that on a chart and saying, yes, I could say this is an opportunity. It's come down to a value area. I can take advantage of this because my fundamentals are telling me strongly it can go into this direction. Yeah. It's always putting on a chart and putting it together. Like when I look at a chart, I don't see candlesticks and patterns and price. I see what's been happening fundamentally. Like I think you see once or twice my chart, you see little notes hanging. It's all notes to keep to remind me sort of what's been happening here. What's been happening there? Why did the Bank of Japan do this? Why did the Bank of England do this? Or the Fed do this? And we can sort of as we're putting that together and understanding and every time like we speak about in the group, bang, there's an idea. Bang, there's an idea. Let's go for it. Yeah. And looking at price charts to kind of determine a direction is very difficult thing to do. I mean, in terms of I mean, and I always say this, right? If I could trade without fundamentals, it would be fantastic. It'll be brilliant because it would save me a lot of I wouldn't say fundamentals are headache, but the fundamental side of things you wouldn't necessarily need to kind of look at the banks and do what you're doing. But how can you kind of ignore that and choose to ignore how wire prices really move, which is basically the fundamental side of things. And if you know that, for example, a central bank is hiking rates and level one is holding rates, then I mean, look at, for example, you know, a really good trade. We were talking about it earlier today in the in the members group was a Euro CAD, right? Look how many people were on that trade, you know, and it was, you know, really obvious. Not everything's going to be as obvious as that, but we're going to work out like that. But when it does work out, it's just, you know, it's it's brilliant. It's it's it's almost like clockwork. It has to work out like that, right? Because we understand the fundamentals. So, so, so fundamental analysis helps with your, I guess your directional technical analysis bias, right? Because you can either buy a support, sell it resistance, buy a demand, sell it supply, but which way is that you're going to, you know, you plan into trade is the question, right? And fundamentals, I guess, you know, helps, helps with that greatly. Helps us give us the direction, our clear direction on how the market like, even by understanding, you know, what's happening, we can understand the market, the market's coming into an auction for a certain period of time because the market's still not ready to move. You're still feeling insecure. Yep. Yep. It's, it's, it's brilliant. So, so what would some of the like-ball moments, you know, that you've had since joining Trading 180? There's always that aha moment. I used to get them all the time with my, just, just it's like, just, you know what I mean? If you have moments. When I first came into trading, one of the best things, I remember when Ken and that mentioned to me when I was a beginning, and it was told me, Alex, the best thing you can do as a beginner, stop trading for a while, do that course, keep away from those old habits. And you also mentioned this in your, in your, in the course. And which is basically the first thing I did. Now, I'll get to the light bulb. This is how it's all basically started. And one of the first things I did do, and as I was going through it, as I was actually trading MUFGs, what they were coming out with, I was doing what they were saying, you know, putting those big gaps, those big, like long-term, how bankers think, how I was trying to adapt there. That's where I got a lot of my reading from and my, and trying to follow their way. And these are bankers. Like you said, these are the smartest guys in the room. Like these guys, you know, and as time was developing, like imagine like this was eight months into the group. And I was trying to think for myself and, and one of my trades that sort of come, I thought of, okay, this is an opportunity now, was the, in December, when the first Bank of Japan came out with that, with that yield curve control. And as that was developing, my first idea, like clearly on my own, and I was, as the rumors were, Bank of Japan wanted to control the yield curve, yeah. Yield curve control. And then, but there was also positive, it was a positive environment for the dollar, for the US dollar, and basically it was more, the positive that was coming out was how the US dollar was more like small data, nothing's really serious, but retail traders were pushing the price up. And it wasn't really a push from a main, you know. It wasn't a main driver. It wasn't a main driver. Yes, it wasn't a main driver. And as it reached that point, I said, this is Bank of Japan, because like, because I had my fundamentals on the chart and I would see my notes and say, yes, this is where the yield curve control is. Now they've reached that. And all this time, this uproar is, it's not really serious. It's like, this thing's gonna come down. As I'm seeing how everything was coming. And we also had some, some slightly negative news of the US dollar, that Bank. That's when I jumped in. And that following weekend, that's when MFU AG mentioned that play, I go, wow, how did I do this? This is how my fundamentals came together. It took time, took time. I'm like I've said, I'm not a slow thinker. I'm not a slow thinker. Me too, me too. Yeah, my main, I love analyzing. It's cause like when I analyze and research, I've get this mostly from my work because when I troubleshoot, when I troubleshoot motherboards and electronic boards and when you're putting the mathematics down and putting all the amplifiers, how amps work, how amps work and voltage and trying to figure out, it's a whole different process way of thinking. But when you come to the fundamentals and through time, I've developed a whole different way of thinking. One of them is patience. I've learned that from you. Yeah, you've got to be patient, right? I've learned that from you. Sit down, take a breather, sit back, open and see what's happening on the break up board. And that's what helped me. And put all that together into this light bulb moment. That's what, that was the result. And I feel good. Yeah. Do you know what, I know that feeling, right? It's when, as you say, you have an idea and before we, because we read several bank reports, some of them being the MUG, city bank, et cetera. And it's, you know, you have the trade idea before you actually read it in the bank analysis. And it's almost like they're just confirming what you think. And then it's almost like, well, I'm thinking like the bank now. It's when you start developing that. Yeah, that's exactly it. That's exactly it, right? And so that's a great thing. I mean, obviously the banks have vast amount of data, you know, all these complex, you know, models that they use to value currencies, et cetera. But at the heart of it, it comes down to GDP, interest rates, inflation, risk sentiment. Yes. All in all, I mean, I think that's exactly it. So as long as you know the relationship between those and you master the relationship between those, then you can start to see how the banks really start to, you know, I mean, position themselves. That positions, that's how I got into the 105 as well, Euro-USD. It's, it's, it was developing, it was happening. And as I was watching price come to that level, this is not an opportunity to take it. And you just, you do it once, you can start feeling, and like I said, patience. It does need that patience. As you always say, guys, take, take your time. You would see price will come to that level at some time. Yeah. Remember we were waiting. Remember, as soon as you see the chart, we were looking, right? We were looking at this. And at the time it took probably around, what's that I would say, quite a few days. You took a few, yeah, 22 days, maybe about a month of trading, right? Month trading dates, right? To kind of come down. And I've done this analysis from, you know, way back here, we were waiting for it to come down, weren't we? Waiting for it to come down. I mean, I didn't actually even enter this. Imagine that. I did the analysis. I didn't enter it, right? I was waiting for prices to kind of actually stop hunt a bit more down into the 105 round number. And it didn't actually get there. It was a few pips before that. I ended up getting into the Euro CAD anyway. So I was in the cut and the Euro, I was in the Euro, Euro Swiss or the Euro pound at the time. So I didn't want to take on too much Euro risk. You know what I mean? As I say, it's only really two Euro pairs. But, you know, I know you, I think Ken, Daniel, you know, I think Richie bought it today. Yeah, all ended up buying in and around this area. You know what I mean? The 105s and now look at that. Look at where prices, you know, are pretty much for, you know, 300, 400 pips up, right? And this analysis is done based purely off of the fundamentals first. 100% the fundamentals. No, because how long have we been long on the Euro for a while, right? For a good maybe quarter or so, maybe beginning of the year. Yes. You know what I mean? And it's waiting for that pullback, being patient. Yes. You say, yes. So light bulb moments, doing the analysis by yourself and then actually reading that analysis. And reconfirming it. Yeah, and reconfirming it. Even the group is inside the group like and it's the good thing is about when I'm in the group and I'm mentioning the trade and there was a one point. And I was really insecure when it reached that high point. I go, she should get out. And I showed how I bought that in the group. And Ken goes, hold, just hold. Yeah, yeah. I love it when he does that. Ken told me to hold. Just hold, just don't hold. Trust me, just hold down. You know, just the fundamentals, yes. Yeah, there's a time to take profits, of course. You know what I mean? There's a time to take partial profits, et cetera. And we'll never capture the exact highs and the perfect trade, right? You have to be set out your, I guess, your plan, first of all. I mean, know where you want to take profits if it reaches, know when you want to hold, et cetera, if the fundamentals are reinforcing, I guess, those ideas as well. That can give you the confidence to hold even more because as you say, sometimes you might look at your unrealized profit, you know what I mean? And be like, oh, I want to take profit. It comes so many times. Oh, wow, it comes. This is, yeah, psychology. You've mentioned, you've got a few things when you mentioned inside the course and it's, oh, they sit down, you know, take a breather, look at the picture. It's just, yeah, psychology plays a big role. It plays, and I think once I even mentioned, I was a book on, I put somewhere in the group as well. And I think I put it back up again in the group. It's got to do with an economic, it was in psychology, an economic guy wrote it. Oh, keep on forgetting. I've got the book somewhere inside. Oh, no. Yeah, I've got it somewhere inside. Okay, no worries. It's just all about psychology and it just mentions how important and it's what you mentioned in the course and how, yeah, how psychology plays a big role. That's number one. That's number one, right? Your trading psychology is number one. Forget your technical strategy and your fundamentals because if you haven't got your psychology right, then, you know, it's just not going to work, right? You're just not gonna make it work because of your psychology. So 100% and, you know, it's something that we're always improving on, always. You're never gonna get to that point where it's like, oh, I've mastered my psychology. You know, I have the moment, same as you guys, same as everyone. We're all- My daughter went and got it for me. Oh, okay. This is the one. Ah, I think, does it think slow? Yeah, it's from an economist. Speaking fast and slow, right, yeah. Matt Z, sort of, I was speaking with him and I was waiting for it to come and I just got this book as well. And this one here as well. And it says, it's a great book for anyone that wants to get into the psychology of trading. Brilliant. It doesn't speak about trading, but it speaks about this like, despite an economist writing it, he gets into depth psychology on why we think the way we think, where we want to get out of the position. Yeah, are we gonna adapt those principles? Yes. To trading. Yeah, that's brilliant. Thanks for the recommendation to the listeners and the watchers. And then finally, just to wrap this up, I guess, you know, what recent, I guess, fundamental trade idea are you most proud of? Probably the Euro-USD and the Euro-Japan. Euro-Japan, cause it was my first and that kept me sort of thinking about the whole process. That helped me develop into Euro-USD as well. Sort of coming, sort of putting the pieces together. And now like I'm also starting to look at one or two pairs, like one we mentioned with the cat early on in the group today. And like I said, you know, on the cat Australian, the Australian cat. Yeah, the Aussie cat. Yes, it's in the position right now that I'm looking at it, thinking about it. I've got my negatives and positive, putting the fundamentals together, listen to what the banks have seen, what markets priced in now. This is, it's worth waiting for. Waiting for Tuesday, see what will the bank do? Because there's a divergence here. There's a divergence in that trade. There's a strong divergence there. This is an opportunity. Yeah, potential for at least a prolonged divergence if the RBA are a bit hawkish, right? Yes, it's an opportunity. That's an opportunity. That's a clearly fundamental opportunity there. It's just, yeah, like as I'm starting to develop this, this is what makes me feel, you know, like you say, it's thank you to you, it's thank you to you. You and the whole T180 community. And also as well, you've done the work, right? Because ultimately, I can... It comes down to wanting, wanting, yes. Yeah, that's exactly it, right? I think work ethic plays, there were more only positive things coming into trading. My work ethic, which I've had from as a young child and I was thinking about mathematics, which actually didn't really play a big role in trade. Okay. Maybe small bits and pieces, it does help out, but yeah, it basically... Yeah, you think you need to be a maths whiz to trade, right? Yeah. I mean, maths isn't my strong point either, you know, but you would think that, you know, maths, you'd have to be a maths wizard to trade and... Yes, but it's not, it's actually not, yeah. Yeah, it's not. So talk just a little bit, expand, I guess, on the, we'll go back to the dollar yen trade. You said you got in around the... Where was it that you got in around? Right there, yes, yes, yes. At the 137s. Yes, right on top, right on top. I do use a bit of order flow too, and so I could see sort of as prices are moving, as I know what my fundamental is at that point, like on your left where you started in a supply zone, that's the 22nd of December, that I know that date there because I know I... The 20th, yeah, really mentioned it today, yes, yes. Because I know that's a very important date there, that's the date when I first mentioned the Yolt curve control, which is one of the strongest points, the point that we have to keep a lookout for in the future, when that, so I'll mark that from the past, that today they mentioned it, it's a very strong fundamental move. Yeah, and... Except the Nagantua Virgin, so it's what we said today, how a lot of Japanese have put out a lot of money, they've put a lot of money into outside of their own country. Yeah, foreign investments, right? Yes, foreign investment, so this can be a big change in looking into the future, so if... And price can be driven back up to that point, we thought we could push all that price up. They, you know, and when price did come back up there, the fundamental, nothing really changed fundamentally, nothing really changed around there fundamentally, in February, in February it was that strong non-farm payroll that came out with sort of... Yeah. They pushed that, I think it was the non-farm payroll came out. Yeah, it was like the 517,000, more than it, yeah. That was a very important day to keep on the calendar, and the other one was the CPR report. Yeah. Those two... Sticky inflation. Yes, this was enough confirmation to tell us that, okay, there is a strong divergence here, like the Bank of Japan is in a much more better state, and also the rumors around the Japanese yen, which does help that the Japanese yen will, that markets are ready to price in on what the rumors around the Japanese yen, and when it reached that point there, all the fundamentals were leading the Japanese in a much more better situation, that's why you can see it going straight up, straight down, it wasn't holding up there as much as previous, because if you look at the previous level around the December level, that level, all up there was all that time of thinking, what would the Bank of Japan do? How was the US, the CPI inflation was starting to sort of drop a bit, and compared to this, there was no, like markets were not reacting on the compared to the other side, like there was a big difference in reaction, and the divergence was right there. Yeah, it was a clear divergence. Yeah, excellent. The central bank of Japan was, yeah. Yeah, excellent trade, and it also helped that there was a bit of a banking crisis as well. You know what I mean? Yes. Yeah, SBB bank. Safe haven. Yeah, safe haven as well, came into that yield curve control, there was a lot of ticks involved in that, and in terms of confluence, and so, because ultimately what are we looking at here? We're saying that the price was a bargain for the yen at this point, and it was driven by potential yield curve control rumors, and then when prices came back up to here, whoever missed out on their trade around here, now managed to get involved in yield curve control idea around here, which now is starting to ramp up as well, again, as we get closer to April, May, June. Nobody knows exactly when timing is always going to be an issue, but ultimately you've got the direction right, which is what counts. Yep, correct. Even if you go back up to December, that was a chance where if you don't follow fundamentals, if you look even before that, behind that, you would see a lot of people would have been going up because going across, it's like saying, okay, this is coming close to, there's price action there saying this thing might be going up. Let's look only at the technical levels, if you're not following the fundamentals, because we're following the fundamentals, we can clearly come to understand that as soon as this information came out to us, we know this price is going to help us in the future, future wise, that it will give us a clear direction on which way we're going. So we're looking at this way, say, okay, this could be a double bottom or create going up for a double top, but whichever way you could see it as a technical ground. Like, I don't even look at the technical normal. Not to determine direction anyway. Yes, yes. I mean, not to determine the direction. Yeah, I mean, the technical is definitely 100% help, but I understand what you're saying in terms of traders would have, trend traders, you're looking at traders probably getting involved in terms of they're seeing the immediate trend to the downside. But you know, there would have been some sort of traders that would have been thinking, okay, well, that's a level, that's a level of demand, et cetera. And then probably looking at maybe some sort of reversal and all of a sudden it starts to drop away, right? It starts to drop away and all of a sudden, but what's key is, is that fundamentally as to why it moved. Yes. That's the key. And then understanding here. Yes. Was the yen a bargain against the dollar? The dollar, at that point, yes, we thought. That is the key. And then you look for your entries in and around there. And that's what happened. Excellent. Thank you, Alexandros, for the interview on. I really, really appreciate it. I think you're coming across your video. Like it's that video that, like it's what, and it's truly, you have the patience that you explain. This is one, I think God's giving you this gift. Oh, thank you. He has, because it's the way you explain things to people that you hope to understand. It's your patience, because I can be a real pain when I start. No, no, no, no, no. We're not, when I don't stop talking. No, and this is a good point, right? It's a good point that you make is because the reason why you are where you are is because you ask the questions, right? In the same way that we've, when I was being mentored by Mark, I would do the same thing as you would do, right? I would ask him questions. I would pick his brain and he was gracious enough and patient enough to help me to understand. And this is what I think you need in trading, right? Because you can watch a, I watched a thousand videos I did before meeting Mark, right? There's nothing happening. I took, you know, tens of indicators that cost tens of thousands of pounds, you know, joined every course, but it was that one-to-one, you know, group, the fact that I could call the person, not necessarily can't call me anytime, you know what I mean, but it just, you can put your questions in the call. I'll get back to you, DM me, I'll, you know, make videos for you, for example, you know. You have, yes, I actually like that. Continue to be, you know, to continue to support you, you know what I mean, and all traders. And, yeah, I just want to say thank you for, you know, for the interview, really. Thank you, thank you, thank you for helping me get my retirement properly. It's like I own you. I like, and I've always said like, and I'm going to say, I've said to all the people in the community, whenever you guys come to Greece, man, lunch is on me always. And I'm waiting for you in Athens. I'm waiting for you to come to Athens. Brilliant, brilliant. I've been to Greece. I've been to Greece. We went to Saloniki. We went to Malia. I went to Malia. And we went to Halkidiki. Halkidiki. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Very, very nice out there. Very, I think when I went out there, me and my wife, we, I think there was a forest fire around there. 2007. Yeah, it was 2007. Yeah, there was a forest fire. I think we just missed it. Kind of came in afterwards, yeah. But we went to like a really kind of picturesque place. It was really, really nice. But yeah, if I'm ever in Athens, mate, I'm going to give you a call and we're going to link up. Yeah. Thank you, Leo. Thank you. Thank you very much. And was there anything you want to say to maybe the listeners who are still listening? Trust this guy. Trust him. It's, it's, it's, I'm uneducated. I learned he helped me put me in a position to understand. If that cannot explain anything like, I don't know what we, it's, it's just, he truly does help you from my heart. It truly helps. Thank you, man. Put you in a position where you would learn. Thank you. Thank you. You're welcome. And thank you. Thank you again for the interview. And thanks for listening to the listeners. Thank you for listening. And if you do want to join Trading 180, go to the Trading 180 website. And if there's an enrollment slot, if there's not, then there will be one probably soon, because I tend to just, I guess, have them open every maybe couple of months as it, you know, keeps the group small, but also focused and concentrated, which I think is better than having it open, you know, all hours and days and people kind of come in and then they get lost in the sea of, you know, maybe people and comments and chats. And, you know, I like to keep the group small. And so, yeah, it's a nice, it's a nice community, great community, helpful community. And thank you to everybody in the community, including you, Alexandros, because I know you help out whenever you can and guide the new traders. And, yeah, thank you very much. And brilliant, guys. Take care. Thank you. Speak to you soon, yeah? Bye, Mike. Bye. All right, bye.