 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly wrap up show up. Everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much. Once again, I say this every night, but thank you very much, honestly, for joining us, spending a few minutes of your day to kind of listen to me ramble and go on about things called technical analysis that fortunately for us makes a lot of sense. But again, if you are not privy to it on a day to day basis is just basically a bunch of useless lines on a chart, right? As I've been told many, many times what kind of these charts and these lines are a little bit important to us. Again, if you're not in the webinar, well, then you don't know. Anyway, right? So let's talk about the tape, right? So the QQQs, I'm just talking about the Qs. Everything else has gone absolutely parabolic. Since we reclaimed the 50 day moving average, we've been on a runaway train, absolute runaway train. The market has done incredibly well. Stocks are just going into parabolic mode, especially the names in the NASDAQ 100, just one after another. I'm just going to go through just the really big names here. You have Metta and Apple, huge runs, NVIDIA going crazy, Amazon going nuts, AMD, the old gang, right? The absolute old gang. Teslas woke up, everything's going crazy, right? Here's the problem. Here's the problem. Here's the problem the way I see it. Not necessarily a problem, but something that I started really observing in the afternoon. So the big number came out this morning. The CPI number came out one tenth of a percent cooler, right? Then estimates and the market went absolutely nuts, right? Absolutely nuts. You saw everything going crazy. It doesn't make a difference what stock we don't need to, you know, we basically don't need to go over individual names. Every stock went nuts, right? Every stock went absolutely crazy. And here's the dilemma, right? Here's the dilemma. The NASDAQ 100, the QQQs have gone since from October the 26th. This is only three weeks, right? From October the 26th to where we are present day, on November the 14th, the keys have gone from 3.42 to 3.86, okay? And not only do we get to 3.86, but if you look at the weekly view of the market, right? Actually, look at the monthly view of the market. I want to show you. We are approaching, right? The July highs of 3.88, okay? Why is this a problem? It's a pretty damn big move without any distribution, without any rest, without any pullback. The one day that we had a little bit of reversal, but all it did was hit the five-day moving average and went right back. Here's the biggest issue I've had. Okay, guys, I've traded the most exaggerated market, right? Which is the dot-com era. That's the most irrational exaggerated market of all time. Stocks were going up every single day. If you watched, you know, if you are brand new to the channel, if you Google Meyer Offman, we did an interview together from Peter from St. Lucia at that time that basically compared what the dot-com era was to kind of where we were in 2020 and kind of where we are now. And the one thing during the dot-com era, as Meyer said, and we know we all live through it, stocks, it wasn't one stock going up every single day. It was a basket of stocks, 20, 30 stocks, you have biotechs, you have softwares, you have semiconductors, everything was going up, it's 20, 30%. And we thought, at least I thought, in two, three years, I was going to be retired, right? And this is going to keep this in mind. The internet craze only lasted for 15, 18 months. That's it. It wasn't longer than that. You know, don't listen to the stories. It was literally from like the end of 98 when the Asian contagion crisis was kind of leaving, it started basically from 99 to the middle of 2000, right? In the middle of 2000, by 2001, the bubble started popping. Obviously, 9-11 played a huge role in reversing equity prices as well. But I never thought it was going to end. That was kind of the common denominator. And when it did end, we couldn't recreate, right? We couldn't recreate the golden goose because the golden goose was dead. So I'm sitting there, you know, I'm sitting there this afternoon. And all I see is, you know, I went on like different, different, you know, different platforms. And I see rocket ship emojis. I see the moon emoji, diamond hands emoji. And I said to myself, we're at the same people, the diamond hands, the emojis, the this, that, and the other thing during like AMC and GameStop and all that stuff. And the one thing that I've always maintained, retail is always the last to know. Retail also doesn't know when they won. So give you an example, right? So GameStop went from... Let me see, I don't keep track of this salt of the earth, but GameStop went in 2020, right? From $3 to what? 120? I'm assuming that's split. I think it was 300 more than that, right? It was like 300, whatever it was. Somebody's an e-signal is not showing the split. And the problem was retail didn't know they won. They didn't know. They didn't know. Apparently a star gone from 3 to 300 is normal. So they didn't think they won. What was the, you know, the realization? The reality happened? Well, here's GameStop, right? Back to 12. AMC, another, you know, darling of the universe, right? Had this magical run. And AMC, you know, went nuts and all that stuff. And well, here's AMC now. And the moral of the story is when you start seeing emojis and moon shots and diamond hands and all that cute stuff the internet is all great about, that means the retail public is always the last to know. That means the retail public is buying the last leg of any move. Now again, by no means am I turning around today and going, oh, that's it. This is the top of the market. But this is where I start to be a little bit, as the people say it, woke, right? Little woke, right? We had a monster rally. Absolute monster rally. Can they continue to rally tomorrow? Absolutely. Can they continue to rally the next day? Absolutely. Right? Absolutely. Again, the market is super duper strong. The problem is, the problem is when I start seeing these little emojis and all that stuff, that means the retail is knee deep. That means they don't want to miss the move. News alert, you missed the move, right? If your first entry tomorrow is in the video at 500, you're probably doing it wrong. The video is up 100 points in two and a half weeks. So that's kind of my point, right? That's kind of my point. And when I started looking at charts tonight, everything was super extended. You know, on dips, absolutely. Like today, for example, when the CPI number went absolutely crazy, all we did today was buy dips. NVIDIA into dips into rising 60 minutes support. Tesla, there was meta, there was Amazon, right? That's the play, right? You want to buy strong stocks into light volume rising support. So if the sellers get trapped and there's an eager round of shorts saying that's it, that's the top, it's going to squeeze back. That's exactly what it did. The problem is, again, when you see so much retail representation in such a short term price action event and they want more and they want more, right? That's the muscle memory, right? That's kind of going back to the dot com era. That's kind of going back to 2020 and 2021 saying we saw this movie before, right? Whether it's going to be tomorrow, it's going to be tomorrow, the next day, the day after, maybe it doesn't. Eventually, again, when you have the NASDAQ 100 going from 342 to 386, gravity got to kick it, right? And again, like I said, by no means am I turning around and go, that's it. That's the top. Tomorrow, we short everything. First of all, what do you mean you short everything? Are you buying everything so you can't short everything, right? Trade by trade. Again, settle down with the whole sell everything buy everything. But I am aware now, I am woke now and the most important part is I am going to be looking for signs. And what's the signs you're going to be looking for? Well, you want to start looking for signs that if stocks are gapping up and they don't take out the previous day's channel, that's a pretty big sign, right? That's a pretty big sign that's called kind of a double top. The second thing that you want to see is the leaders that have been making this move up. Well, see if they stop participating on the future spikes. For example, NVIDIA has been arguably the biggest rock star in the last two and a half weeks. If this stock doesn't rally with the futures, attempt to rally the futures in the next couple of days, well, guess what? It's getting tired. Again, it reports on November 21, so the dynamics of NVIDIA may be a little bit different than other stocks. But this is where you have to get a little bit more, not necessarily the word defensive, but kind of readjust your approach. So I am a firm believer as much as I do bounces and rejections into supply and demand. I take offers. That's what I do. I take offers on the upside and I hit bits. At some point, you have to kind of reshift your thinking about it just because everything's a little bit stretched out. So I think the game plan for tomorrow, at least initially, or at least initially is if we do get a gap up, let's try those initial remounts, bounce spots on light volume. But if we start seeing any type of hesitation for bounce in those areas where we know they're supposed to bounce, and we start seeing lower lows take place again, doesn't necessarily have to be tomorrow, maybe it's the next day below the previous day's channel, below the 60-minute channel, that is going to at least give us a sign that, hey, maybe the buyers are getting tired. The same way the sellers got tired on NVIDIA, for example, on October the 31st, maybe they get tired, maybe they get tired on 100 points. Guys, keep this in mind, NVIDIA was at 392. This was two weeks ago. We're at 500. So again, you have to look at more of this market, more of kind of one big feasibility study. Like we talked about today in the webinar, I love when I put together a game plan, I look at the game plan as reward versus risk, meaning that most days the market is going to be up a little bit or down a little bit, and in normal nature, normal, organic option flow, organic equity flow will confirm price action. When you have a series of gap ups, gap ups, gap ups, and it's a runaway train, the market is going parabolic, instead of turning a reward-to-risk scenario, now it's a risk-to-reward scenario. So basically, if you're buying tomorrow NVIDIA on strength, maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but the reward-to-risk ratio was here. Now up here is the risk-to-reward ratio, and it's basically what we talk about if you're a brand new trader and you're brand new to the channel, it's something called, you're jumping out of the first floor, and if you fail, you might get maybe a bruised hip, maybe a broken bone, but if you're jumping out of the 12th floor, there's a good chance that you could get a severed head, and you can't come back from a severed head. And something that I talk about always the time, like again, when I start getting defensive, again, it doesn't mean that tomorrow's the top, the next day is the top. Again, I'm not looking for tops, I'm the last one that looks for top. I'm still going with the trend, I'm still looking for dips, but once I start seeing, especially with the emojis and the whole social media thing, I start thinking to myself, hey Dan, sell when you want to, not when you have to. And today, we talked about it in the webinar, I can't possibly go along again overnight tonight. I just can't do it, right? I just can't do it. I don't want to keep on pushing the envelope hoping I'm going to be right, especially after 100 point move on the video, after, let's see, or after what, 242, after what? 45, nearly 50 point move on the cues in two and a half weeks. So going into tomorrow, I'll be just playing ranges, right? Playing ranges, look for any clues, potential gas out, look for any potential rolling tops, look for potential maybe put buyers coming in on rallies. You know, again, all these different clues. We talk about data accumulation every single night to kind of paint a picture for the next day. And again, like I've been saying for years, I want to sell when I want to. Nobody wants to sell when they have to. And if you are playing blind, if you are chasing, and if you are kind of like negating the fact that we had a 45 point rallying the cues in two and a half weeks, again, maybe your next entry will be correct, but maybe it won't. And the most important part is what you want to avoid is if you're having a good two, two and a half week run, especially with this big reclaim of the 50 day moving average. The last thing you want to do is give back two and a half weeks on one candle, right? That's kind of a nausea feeling. I've done that so many times in my career, in my first five to seven years, it's nauseating. Eventually, you start to figure things out. You figure, you start to realize that, you know what? Maybe I shouldn't go in this dark alley. Maybe I should go across the street when it's a well lit sidewalk. And these are the things we kind of do and kind of grow as traders. And I'll tell you, can the market continue going tomorrow? Absolutely, right? Absolutely. But boy, oh, boy, it's getting very, very tough to find setups that are coming out of ranges because literally everything is gone. You know, one name I kind of like going into tomorrow hasn't really broken out yet is Fast and All. Fast and All looks pretty good. It's consolidating, it looks good. If you look at all the stocks we talked about the last couple of days that consolidated, right? DDOG, we talked about it the last couple of days it went. Shopify, consolidated the last couple of days it went. Even Starbucks today, right? Even Starbucks today finally got on the channel and this thing went as well. So it's very, very important to kind of find these things, but boy, oh, boy, it's getting really hard. Tesla, you know, it's getting very close. We talked about Tesla last night in the video about getting above this supply zone. It did. Now the next big hurdle for Tesla is to get above the 50-day moving average. Can it do it? Can it not do it? We'll see, right? We'll see. But from the point of reference, when you look at stocks, what happens when you get above the 50-day moving average again? Let me give you guys some examples, right? You see the light blue line? Qs reclaim the light blue lines, explode it. Amazon reclaim the light blue line, explode it. Nvidia reclaim the light blue line, explode it. I'm sure there's $20,000 stocks I could point to. So Tesla again for the next couple of days, let's watch that light blue line, right? That's the 50-day moving average. And if Tesla finally reclaims the 50-day, and who knows? Maybe tomorrow it gets rejected off the 50-day, but if Tesla finally reclaims the 50-day, I think it could start an upward cycle and join the party as well. So that's it, guys. The dynamics are starting to turn a little bit. My spidey sense is a little bit starting to tingle. Maybe I'm a day off. Maybe I'm two days off. Maybe I'm three days off. But again, I'd rather be safe than sorry. Guys, God bless. Have a great day. Tomorrow is another data number. You got the PPI, what else is new. And hopefully the market will treat you very, very well. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all tomorrow.