 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a beautiful day to open your sportsbook gap because not only do we have an eight game slate in the NBA But we have a full menu of offerings available for the players championship at TPC sawgrass once again a loaded Fuel for this week weren't talking about both that NBA slate and the players championship by talking to Brandon Getting his read on everything you can bet on over at Fandall sportsbook for this week Maybe not everything might be a bit of a it oversell there This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gondola He is a senior managing editor of number fire calm Brenda Dio takes on let's see here What's the dumbest thing I can pull up? We're not dumb you confess this Do you have cycling thoughts for me Was not prepared to answer cycling. I thought we were table tennis I thought we were going over Surfing and rugby league and rugby union, which are very different things. I know most people don't know the difference, but boxing Nice to be in a boxing a little bit Okay, well, we'll find something Australian Rose football is Really fun to watch for on slack Australian Rose football is the coolest sport that there is it's not not a lie I've been at the gym on like a Saturday morning. It's been on and I have like it's extended my workout So I feel like I should get into it just from like a cardio perspective Like it might be better for me if I because like if they put it on I just get distracted and don't realize How long I've been going? So like I I agree with this. This is a good take It's like it's like soccer meets rugby meets like American football Guys just get it like get the ball Run down the field then they just punt it and I'm like, I don't know why like They're like, I don't know why that happened, but it was cool Yeah, and they get to a certain point Then they like touch it down and they got to kick it through uprights And I don't really know what's happening and as a sports fan growing up with like the big sports Like I know that intricacies of sports. Yeah, it's very foreign to be watching a sport and be like I don't really know what's happening See the better thing is playing a sport where you don't know what's happening In high school grew up in Minnesota. We played snow rugby basketball where it's in the snow If you're playing with a basketball hoop, but there is no dribbling and tackling is fully okay No broken bones somehow. I don't think there were any concussions confirmed from the entire time somehow So like it's actually decently safe sometimes So I would propose John Sheeran get snow rugby basketball. It's posted at Fandall Sportsbook So I can be pro in something else other than talking for some time going pro Yeah, I also couldn't shoot even in snow rugby basketball to be fully honest It was not my strength regardless just I might be bad at bad things that involve coordination Is it it wait is it just like shooting a basketball through hoop? You mean it was a small hoop so you could in theory dunk but that also required me to get to the hoop to dump It was a small basketball to like you could palm it. Okay. Well, I can help you with your shooting form if you need I'm not gonna shoot with that. You want to go pro. There's no three-point line. So like why would I shoot dunk dunk? So only hey man Guess you're not an innovator. I want snow. There's no rugby basketball back in my life Hey, maybe that's not great to play post 30 like that seems like that could be dangerous like when you're 19 It's probably fine when you're 31 Maybe it's right 30. Yeah, I don't know whatever. Yeah 31. Okay. Whoo Anyway, let's talk about some NBA in a bit here Oh, we'll get Brandon Gadoulas thoughts on tonight's NBA We'll talk about the players championship as well all in just a second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Dr. Ed Fing is back with us tomorrow talk about some men's college basketball conference tournaments We'll talk about northwestern being the two seed in the big 10 because I'm gonna force him to why not We'll talk about some other stuff there We'll let that on next week too on Monday to break down the NCAA tournaments help you win your pools All that coming up here on the covering the spread podcast feed So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast to get that right as it goes a lot Are you looking to have a stake in the players championship all weekend? Well, Fandall has you covered with the pga eagle contest now live in the dfs tab Test your knowledge of the pga tour by putting together a six-person lineup while staying under the salary cap and using Fandall's live scoring feature Follow along as you compete for a share of $200,000 with first place taking them $40,000 all for just $7 and 77 cents Whether it's household names like john rom and roi mackerel or some lesser known golfers You think may be sleepers teeing off on march 9th on thursday There are plenty of options for you to fill out a lineup as you compete for first place Thursday will be here before you know it so submit your lineups on fandall today Eligibility restrictions apply go to fandall.com or download the fandall app for more details We'll talk more about the players in just a bit here But let's start things off by talking about the NBA brand a couple of national tv games for tonight Those are the 76ers at the wolves. We've got the grizzlies at the lakers Looking at those two specifically Anything stand out to you there at fandall right now 76ers played last night. Um had a high scoring win Timberwolves been off since saturday Which ended a four game road trip for them. So they should be rested and ready to go. They're more or less healthy um in terms of their key key pieces, but Don't have an official injury report As of we didn't have it as of 8 30. I don't know if we have it as of 9 30, but probably not where the sixers do uh to the back to back yet still still empty but to bias harris um probably not Likely to to suit up from what I can glean but What matters is the the 76ers splits with ambide And james harden tyrus maxi in there as well for me uh, but with those three This team's 18 and 2 net rating of only uh plus 2.7, but a really good offensive rating of 119.7 So good marks overall for this team timberwolves with their relevant splits a little bit more recent since the deadline A bit lighter there minus one net rating but a 116 and a half offensive rating League average depends on the source you go to but around 114 So both the offense is well above uh the league average in that uh sense But once you account for arrest home court advantage, I do have the uh the timberwolves as modest favorites by 3.2 Are they still favored by one here? It's two now So not Not not quite as good. Um, but I would still back them there But my favorite uh path to this game is the over again both teams have good offenses My model has it at 232.8 Um to give us some breathing room I should have this pulled up as well, but it's a 2.9 and a half right now Okay, um, so you mentioned you had the walls favored by 3.2. They're two point favorites right now What's like your threshold if you have one as far as like I need x points of value or To in order to like make it something I feel good about I just like to see two points difference um That one I think has been sliding. I think I think it was one before we started here, but um, I like look there's generally enough opportunity with the nba each night where I don't want to force things It'll depend on what else is available and sometimes I'll lower that Which is not Good process. So I'm not really recommending it everyone should have their their limits and stick to it But also I think it's important where you know I'm still skeptical of something that even is maybe a point and a half different Yeah, just because I'm quite risk averse sure when it comes to nba I'd rather make no bet than a bad bet and then when it comes to golf I'm I'm still pretty risk averse, but I know that there's golf's just high risk So it's a weird uh weird combination to talk both nba and golf But yeah, my my preferred route here is the over due to the good offenses Okay, so we like the over on 76ers wools. That's the 229 and a half right now brand image. He has it around 232 For that one. So let's talk about the other game here. That is The grizzlies and the lakers grizzlies a quiet team recently not really in the news too much So surprise to see them here any thoughts for you on this one? Yeah, don't like it. Um, I don't like uncertainty. There's a lot of things not to like there. That's fair Uh, I just talked about like being risk averse even whenever the the numbers show a little bit of value But again, that comes from your personal risk tolerance and that's important to understand As an individual better, but yeah lots going on with the grizzlies Obviously john moran suspended brain and Clark just towards achilles. Stephen Adams still out But the lakers they're not necessarily in a position to Take advantage either lebron james is listed as out D'Angelo russell is questionable. Anthony Davis is probable for this one They just beat golden state by eight Um, so, you know, they're still a capable team, but the long-term splits without lebron james surprisingly Um, by which I mean ironically it's unsurprising that they're they're a much better team with lebron james They're net net rating. So if you look at their offensive rating or sorry, they're net rating with lebron versus without them It's a 9.6 point differential Um, straight up there a minus six without him. So you don't love to see that purely based on the data if I pull like the relevant samples, you know without john moran and The the grizzlies guys without the brawn, you know, d'Angelo russell But with like anthony all that kind of stuff if I look just purely based at the numbers My model has memphis favored by 2.3, but I am not touching this game from that sense I'd rather bet the under The the lakers offensive rating is very very bad with the current lineup Memphis is is kind of still decent but I Don't really want to get access to backing the grizzlies right now and I would understand Some struggles for both sides In terms of the offense. So the under is uh, the play here for me I talked about this in like week two in the nfl when I kept trying to bet the cardinals, uh, which was bad I needed a vibes meter in my model. Have you considered a vibes meter? Um to nullify value on the grizzlies Wait, did you ask if I have one or I'm asking have you considered it? You should have meant it? Well, so that's that that's a weird thing. Um, yeah, the vibes are weird. Yes. Yeah, the vibes are weird, but We're not gonna open because we spent time talking about like australian real football We don't really have time to open up the the box of like the vibes meter Well, like how like if you because I you know I'm assuming you unless you really implemented the vibes meter We have our inputs that we believe in and we put those in and then I would use them. I wouldn't put that in You know But like I don't like to get into the well. Here's why this is too high or too low It's like well if they've played this way without like jammer in and brandon clark and like this is what I should think Because this is what's actually sort of happening I don't like that. I don't like that uncertainty and then therefore I don't want part of like backing them at all So again, I'm sticking with the under. I don't have a vibes meter If I had known I was going to be questioning about a vibes meter. I would have had a better Better response, but honestly going on this show you should have known you'd be questioned about a vibes meter like just that's that's on you bro That's on you Which narratives exist for? Yeah rotation players Exactly, uh, so under 226 where brandon sees value for grizzlies and lakers that lay game on t and c But it is an eight game slate to six other games. We have not yet discussed anything else stand out to you right now Um, unsurprisingly, I like the nicks money line. That's minus five ten But I was looking for money line parlays, which I I do like whenever I see value on heavy favorites Not necessarily loving another favorite to pair them with I I You know my model likes milwaukee well enough, but orlando is kind of weird whenever they get to play at home So i'm probably staying away from that one, but you know, if you're really like if you're really feeling it Probably dallas would be the place that I would go there uh next if you're looking for that but I think that it's pretty safe to uh put The next money line with any other bets that you like just something i'm thinking about because uh, don't really see them Losing this one, but other than that I like taking the points, uh for the thunder Uh, it was four and a half. It's now four, which is a little less fortunate, but Um, you know, they need some wins right now The warriors are as we've talked about numerous times feels like we talk about the warriors and the lakers a lot On these tuesday, uh spots, but they're not They're not a good, uh road team Just haven't traveled particularly well at a certain point that matters to me um Oklahoma city like so again, I just didn't put the data Let that like with the adjustments of home court rest things like that Take hold but in addition to that whenever i'm uncertain I like to look at some trends to see if like there's something a little bit more there But oklahoma city at home covering, uh pretty well 58.8 of the games Um tend to score well relative to their implied team total at home So that that to me says that they kind of bring it at home with the offense and that helps me I want to back them and just take the points as well so there was um A report yesterday that sga is going to have like minute restrictions going forward. It doesn't sound like it'll be like 20 minutes. Um, it's going to be like reduced from what he's been playing, which is a lot. Um How much is that worth to you anecdotally because obviously like it's tough to model that out Like anecdotally, how much is that worth to you with regards to the spread? It is but it's nice to see in this instance the the spread moving Um, correct with confirmation that other people agree with you despite that report And the fact that uh, I don't necessarily believe a ton in the warriors on the road with you know, their current their current rotation so um feeling pretty solid with that still, uh, and and I don't think that it's going to be to the point where um Like it's going to be you know, it could be blow up, but yeah, the data says that it's the uh Still a great way uh to to get access to the scheme Yes, that's still a thunder plus four right now other things mentioned over the nicks money line Now minus 480 right now versus the hornets Um, you also have the bucks minus 280 is a potential add on there the mavericks the other one mentioned They are minus 370 they didn't move in towards the hornets. Um, because it was 5 10 for the nicks it's now 4 80 so keep an eye on that but um Just uh, I know that it didn't now it's it might as well be a pick them now Yeah, exactly just nervous shaking in my boots. No, what's going on here? Okay Uh, that's gonna wrap up the nba for today. Let's shift focus now and talk about the players championship We are a tpc sawgrass for this weekend brandon. It's a pretty unique course where There are a lot of factors to consider What should people know about this course before taking a look at the odds? It's tough It's tough. It's high variance. Um Waters in play virtually everywhere 17 of 18 holes 88 bunkers It's just a high variance event every year. Uh, last year's leader board looking back at we know that cam smith won but uh, the top like 15 was Pretty wild that's not to say it's random. That's not to say that like it was pretty living to very living leaderboard yeah, um But like it's it's not random and it's not like to the point where Oh, anybody can win. I mean a lot of guys can win because one of the key things here is that off the t Accuracy wins out over distance and anytime that happens that Brings a lot more golfers into play because they're not necessarily like there are certain golfers who are Who can be penalized at a longer course where distance is just a huge advantage Whenever you get rid of that the shorter hitters who are about as good at other things Generally, you know have the good short games to contend if they're not if they're losing distance off the tee consistently Then it's sort of an even playing field um that being said like Accuracy is never The only stat you should look at like there's a lot more to golf than hitting fairways, especially if you're um struggling with the irons, but It's it's punishing to miss the fairways here being the wrong spots off the tee penalties are hard to overcome again Tons of water lots of bunkering Because it's just not an easy course. Otherwise, you're not going to be having a ton of birdie and eagle chances It's not going to be a scorefest so Along with that greens are a bit smaller than the usual pga tour stop, which again puts added Emphasis on hitting the fairways getting good lies getting good angles wind can be an issue probably going to be a bit of an issue this week so Volatility is the key if you're asking me for key stats I still want to have stroking an approach at the top because it's just the most important stat that accounts for a par threes but Stroking it off the tee with a lean toward driving accuracy is important Then from there, it's basically just hoping that your guys don't find themselves with like a bad gust or You know a water ball, uh, which a lot of guys are going to have and it's going to derail things so uh Fight the the instinct to think that your first round leaders are Going to be there all four days. Uh, if your outrides get off to a slow start It's not over. Yeah Um, the wind is not terrible this week at least compared to last week Max of like 12 miles per hour there is some rain in the forecast Friday afternoon, um, but Later in the day Friday, so might not get there in time, but At least not as bad as last week where it was pretty pretty gusty for both afternoons At the top of the odds for we have a rory macaroy plus a 50 scottie cheffler is 10 to 1 John rom 11 to 1 now when Uh things opened yesterday macaroy and rom are both plus a 50 and rom is lengthened to 11 to 1 so Do you think this is an overreaction to rom being human last week or is it appropriate given that you mentioned? Accuracy matters more here more guys can compete rom more of a bomber macaroy that kind of applies to here as well Although he has one here Uh somewhat recently So what's your read on those top guys macaroy cheffler and rom and their respective odds Well, if you're asking me if it's an overreaction to what we saw from john rom last week absolutely um Golf betting odds are hilarious to watch if you track things like very closely because A lot of it is reactionary um, and Believe it or not. I you know, I've studied this four rounds of data Not that predictive Of of anything, um, especially when we're looking at someone such as a john rom But look, I cite finishing positions because it's easy. Um I don't really like to cite finishing positions that much because they're they're very volatile You know a putt or two that falls for a guy or doesn't fall for a guy could be the difference between like A t10 and in like a t25, um, if it's a really clustered event A penalty shot can do the same like one, you know a triple. I mean not for kurt kiddie I'm just to see he has so many as he wanted and and still going to win but um, you know a penalty shot can drop someone 15 spots and That's why we need to be looking at the underlying data, but uh I mean Whenever you see like really strong finishing positions That's largely indicative of good play. Yes, but that's going to shorten someone's odds If you have someone like rom Fall off a little bit and then rory and cheffler be it all over the the coverage come sunday That's going to stick in people's minds. That's going to change the way that people wanted that. So yeah It is an overreaction. Mm-hmm. That being said Even while I still have drawn rom is the favorite this week. It's pretty it's pretty flat relative to to other weeks where there's more variance this week um Course fit favoring some guys who have longer odds So I don't see rom uh as someone I could bet I have him around This is probably sound weird But I have rom and cheffler around 14 to 1 and rory around like 16 to 1 If I'm like if I were putting it to be completely fair. Yeah So I'm not betting the top guys because of the way that the variance is for this course, but Yeah, it is an overreaction and if you're going to bet one of them for me It's just going to be rom at the better number. I mean it does sound like those are long odds, but also like I mean Sportsbooks don't want to get skewered on favorites. They're gonna. Yeah a lot of the hold will come from favorites Like that's kind of how things work So the fact that their value is not a shock And the way that those three specifically are golfing I know we got to forgive john rom for one one bad week whenever he was very clearly like very flustered with the setup, but Those three guys specifically right now deserve to be where they are even if mathematically I'm not gonna bet them So we're not backing the favorites here between macaroy cheffler and rom When you look elsewhere in the outright market brandon anything stand out to you in terms of being a good value Not as much as I would hope especially for how overvalued I see the favorites three names are jumping out to me um And if if I when I looked yesterday three names jumped out If I looked just this morning only one of those three's really would jump out, but They're tony finnell calling more cala and jason day More cala shortened from 28 to 24 I had him at like 27 so I thought the 28 was like just enough uh to want to get there Frankly, I'd still bet him at 24. I think it's fine. Um, I was just you know, we kind of joked about this We were hoping for a bit of a down week last week for him He went a little too far with it Went a little bit far on that um Jason day's down from 34 to 29 or Oh, so he was 36. Yeah And then he got up to 41 and now he's 29. Okay That's that's interesting, but the name that still shows a little bit of value for me is tony finnell um Believe it or not. He's actually pretty accurate off the tee despite being really long He's fifth over the past 50 rounds in this field in stroking approach. He's ninth in putting He's like a john rom light in the sense of like Very long off the tee, but actually pretty accurate as well Uh, great irons and right now a great putter So I still like finnell and again, I still like more cal in day just not as much as I did On monday more cal is pretty obvious for the setup here. He's got driving accuracy. He's got iron play the odds are Now they're about accurate for where he's been 28 it was a little bit a little bit long. Um, so, you know a situation to buy in on maybe this Maybe there's length in again, but I guess the The genie's out of the bottle there. It's probably going to be 24 shorter for more cala and then for a day Someone we've we've been talking about a lot over our dfs podcast Talking about a lot today as well Former winner here doing a lot with a putter right now But pretty accurate off the tee four straight top 10s, which again, I don't like to cite as like proof of good play With a caveat for day It is a lot of the putter doing the work for him But that's not to say that the tee degree game is bad. So those are the three guys That i'm looking at toward the top of the board And despite the high variance, I think throwing a lot of darts probably not the way i'm going to go Right for this week because i'm not really seeing a ton of value on the long shots Maybe like a A very partial unit wager on someone like a matt kutcher, but I swore that I like him as a top 20. So Probably rather just go that route. I guess digging quickly into fina who is 28 to one right now at fan dual sportsbook Doesn't have a good history at tpc sawgrass, but as you mentioned, it's pretty volatile um Is that the reason you're okay overlooking that because like we know we talk about this a lot in our other show Like course history will never trump current form for us and tony fina's current form is elite better than it's ever been Is that the bigger reason you're overlooking the current the the course history is it because of the volatile event? What kind of pushes you over the edge with fina? Almost nobody has great Inconsistent form at tpc sawgrass again. I don't want to just throw like throw my hands up and say look It's volatile. So who knows but Right, uh, there's not a lot of great form Uh, consistently At tpc sawgrass like yes, the better players tend to separate long term, but it's not necessarily like one of those spots where it's oh like um You know here like the five guys who are sort of can't miss every year because it's just it doesn't work that way at this setup Okay, let's shift our focus now and talk about some not outright So you look at those over at fan dual sports or brand anybody stand out to you there Uh, so I got a group bet group g Uh, that's seawool kim chris kirk tommy fleetwood and kirk kitty yama I like seawool kim there at plus 210 Uh, you know former winner here, but very accurate off the t great t-degree game Overall the putter for him not particularly good right now, but i'm fine to bank on The accuracy in the t-degree game for seawool kim versus the rest there at at what i view is a good number I have around uh, plus 200 so Plus 210 i'll take there. Yeah, that is seawool kim at plus 210. Chris kirk is in there recent winner Tommy fleetwood kirk kitty yama. This is all just the recent winners apparently because her Kitty yama one last week kirk won like two weeks ago kim One not too long ago either so all the recent winners and tommy fleetwood Lump together for seawool kim plus 210 and that one anything else you like right now As i mentioned matt kutcher top 20 Plus 360 has the right game for tpc sawgrass still one here In the past back in i think 2012 if memory serves A bit worse lately at tpc sawgrass, but again doesn't really matter there Um, he's 36th in accuracy 57th in stroke skiing t-degree in over the past 50 rounds That's a good enough combo with the course knowledge To go to kutcher. It's a really tough week to find a lot of value. Um, yeah, maybe that stuff sort of softens up closer to thursday But right now things are pretty tight The only other thing that i'm kind of seeing is i will be throwing a Partial unit dart on joel daemon first round leader at plus 190. He's got a good Good game for this, uh course good ball striker pretty accurate off the tee. So, um Not seeing a ton and it's it's important to you know flag that and and not Get weird if you don't have to but uh, yeah, that's kind of Where i am for right now as of tuesday i had to toss the control f out there to find daemon He is 120 to 1 to be the first round leader For joel daemon, uh, what puts you on daemon as far as being a guy who could lead after thursday's action Well, i have a first round, uh model sim Which kind of shows some a little bit of value there, but he's he can he can get he can get hot um, but again good t-degree game generally Very accurate the irons right now not particularly strong, but should be good in a good position off the tee um For for daemon. So that's kind of the angle there is hitting fairways and figuring out the irons And it's been a rough little stretch here for daemon, but outside of the arnold palmer Hasn't been because of ball striking the ball striking for daemon has still been pretty good It's been more so putting which is kind of you know, how things go with him Pretty often, but joel daemon 120 to 1 to be the first round leader as potential spar brand is okay Tossing a sprinkle sprinkle out there for it this week That's all we got here for the players championship and tonight across the nba. So brandon want to thank you Once again for swinging by uh spreading your Uh plentiful knowledge. Uh, good luck to you tonight. We'll talk to you once again in the very near future Thank you by very near future. I mean in a couple minutes We'll talk about the the dfs side of things over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed You can find brandon on twitter at kadula 13 I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s tomorrow show going up in the afternoon talking to ed fang about Some men's college basketball conference tournaments stuff We'll get you set for that and talk to ed and get his thoughts that we'll talk to you all very soon Good luck with the nba tonight. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network