 Welcome traders to another Tickmail Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing the 6th of February with me, Patrick Munnerley. After last week's excitement, it's a much quieter week in terms of data and events in the US with activity data softening and inflation cooling. The market remains unconvinced about the Federal Reserve's desire to raise interest rates as a couple more times, as outlined by Fed Chair Powell last week. A recession appears to be the base case with expectations of policy easing in the second half of the year, which is putting downward pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields. This is going some way to undermining the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes at the short end of the curve as it battles to ensure inflation is eradicated from the system. Consequently, the highlights of the week will likely be Powell's appearance at the Economic Club of Washington. If fee fails to push back meaningfully against the market reaction, the implication would be that the Fed itself is relaxed with what the market is doing, which risks it pushing further in the direction of pricing future interest rate cuts. Several other Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week as well. In terms of data, it's largely second tier releases, although the trade balance could be interesting. It has narrowly narrowed sharply through 2022, contributing positively to GDP growth in the second half of the year, but this appears to be unsustainable. It was driven by falling imports rather than rising exports, and markets see a strong chance that it sees partially unwinds in December. Meanwhile, the conference board's measure of consumer confidence is expected to improve given the rally in equity markets and the falling gasoline prices, with a strong jobs market continuing to provide a firm underpinning for now. From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index broke to the top side on Friday on that blowout jobs data, and we are seeing the strength sustained here as we start the week. So I'm looking for any three wave corrective move back into test resistance, prior resistance, and as we're out to support in the 102, 13, 102, 50 area, what should bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, and we're looking ultimately now to test trend channel resistance 103.70s. At this stage, we take a close back through 101.20 to retest prior cycle lows at the 168 level. Moving to the Eurozone, in terms of data this week, let's take a look at the slate and see where we are. We don't have anything really of note today. We do get German industrial production tomorrow, Tuesday, looking for negative 2% print there, likely to experience a few volatile months in that data. And that really does round out the data out of the Eurozone this week. It is, like I say, a very quiet week from a data perspective. Technically though, if we look at the Eurodollar obviously trading inversely to the Dollar Index, seeing a nice initial decline to the downside impulsive, and we are now looking for any three wave corrective moves back into the 108.90s, 109 handle, what's bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. I'm looking now for a move down to target weekly projected range support, the high volume node 106.20 monthly projected range support just below their 105.80s. At this stage, we'd really need to close back through 109.80s to suggest a false downside break and a resumption of the uptrend. Moving to the UK, an artificial bounce in activity after the Queen's funeral last September suggests the economy will narrowly avoid entering a technical recession in the fourth quarter of last year. Nevertheless, markets expect a modest contraction in the first quarter of this year, and probably the second, meaning recession is still the base case. It is however likely to be a very mild by historic standards, not least because the recent fall in gas prices now means that the government can probably cancel April's planned increase in household energy bills. And indeed, they'll probably have fallen from the current £2,500 annual average to about 2000 by the summer. In terms of the additional data in the UK, we don't have anything of note apart from Friday's December trade balance. Weaker consumer should narrow the deficit in 2023 from the 180 billion seen last time out. And then we get Q4 GDP, likely that the recession is going to start, like I say, the first quarter of this year or the second quarter at a minimum last time at negative 0.3% from a technical perspective, sterling sort of strong reaction from the resistance up at that 124 handle could not get any traction really above them. We have since seen an impulsive move to the downside. So I'm looking for any three-wave corrective moves back into test 121.50, 121.60 resistance, look for an extension to the downside. We're looking for 119 as the next downside objective. Ultimately, I'm looking for a retest of those lows printed at 118.40s. In Japan, no data of note today. We obviously have had a chatter overnight regarding the replacement for Governor Koroda. Amemire is considered to be a dovish pick if he is indeed going to be the new chief. The government were quick to refute those claims overnight, but that is the chatter in the markets at the moment, and that has led to some yen weakness overnight. Tuesday, we get December household spending, looking for a negative 0.4%. The labour market should be a bit more supportive there as uncertainty starts to fade. Then on Wednesday, we get December current account balance looking for 100 billion yen there. China's reopening should be supportive this time out, and that rounds out the data in Japan for the week ahead. From a technical perspective now, the dolly yen has broken out the descending trend channel. I'm looking for some consolidation here. Ultimately then, as we find support into this low volume area, 131.30s and the gap, as that area tracks buyers, then I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. Next upside objective is going to be into the 134.70s, 135 area where we have weekly and monthly projected range resistance. Moving to Australia, RBA decision to Tuesday, looking for another 25 basis points increase there to take the rate to 3.35% tightening cycle continues, responding to the inflationary challenges that the Australian market is experiencing. And then on Thursday, we get December weekly payrolls looking for a 0.7% print there. Summer holiday collapse could be larger than usual down under this time. And then on Friday, we get the RBA statement on monetary policy, just a general forecast update there. So from a technical perspective, Aussie dollar in line with a lot of these FX majors, obviously we saw that dollar strength into the back end of last week. I'm looking for another extension to the downside, test support into the 68.60s from there. We watched the three-way corrective patterns back into the 70.50. What I'm looking for there then will be the second leg to the downside in this corrective move. Ultimately, we're looking to challenge trend channel support down to 67.60s is the ultimate objective before we can consider the resumption of the uptrend in the Aussie dollar. And last but not least, let's check in with Bitcoin, see where we are as we open the week, Bitcoin consolidating over the weekend. And I'm looking now for a push down into support the 22,200 area, which are bullish reversal patterns there. Once again, look again on the long side. I'm looking for a test of the yearly pivot, which comes in just below 27,000. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 6th of February. As always, trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.