 hi guys it is Friday the 15th just gone eight o'clock here in London hope everyone has had a good week we'll have a look at the charts to see how we have got here on Friday how the markets have acted over the last five days and then have a look at the stories from overnight I look forward to the calendar and what lies ahead for next week as well as you can see on my right hand side are really interesting and it is actually a decent article to be fair from Bloomberg this is Trump's trade deal from start to end and it's not a not a bad reflection it has to be said of of the direction that we've gone in and how we have potentially got to that phase one deal stocks are on all-time highs as we head into the weekend another good week 3100 in the S&P you know you've got to take your hat off to the the balls of this market really driving price higher whether it's FOMO whether it's no real negative headline yet that's driven price lower fair enough for this big push and it happened again overnight breaking out this mini range that perhaps we've been in over the last five days and pushing higher in Asian trade we are just coming off a tiny bit from that tie but you can see here last well in the Asian session the all-time high 3111 the triple Nelson a quick look over the currency pairs from the week so far just having to look over at the euro it's been drifting down certainly from the beginning of the week on Monday we then yesterday probably had the single most important release and reaction you know so far for the euro because it's you know not messed about the ranges each day have been small and then 7 a.m yesterday Germany avoiding recession a decent push higher in the euro only to be met by some euro weakness and some dollar strength in the afternoon only then in the back end of the session to then push higher as well have we seen the low for the euro I think you'd be a wise person to say no obviously we are the lowest we have been now if I just or as of yesterday from the relatively beginning of October around the 7th but we perhaps are due a little bit of a respite following the last couple of weeks that have been drifting down that's really the main headline that has come out from the euro side of things there's a couple of comments from Trump overnight on trade between the US and EU which will come on to but Germany avoiding the recession there how is that be is that the bottom or is actually the good news here bad news and for Germany now you know this is just the start of it's a struggle to to regain any kind of growth for the pound it's going to be a tricky as we know going forward the deadline yesterday for candidates was reached at 4pm for Raj is not taking the the 40 seat deal unfortunately we got sucked into watching the big announcement at 11 o'clock yesterday and I mean it was it was painful to watch for 30 40 minutes or so just waiting to see is he going to say something worthwhile to be honest I'm not quite sure what that announcement was unless it was just confirming what we already knew that he's going to run those candidates in the 300 or so points but from the from the week beginning Monday decent push higher and for Raj removing 300 or so of the 600 places he was going to run the pound push higher drifted lower over the the next couple of days and we are near enough near those highs 129 traded last night on a bit of pound strength a bit of dollar weakness as well which we saw into the back end of session in that euro as well ultimately polls are now going to be the driver brexit comments you've got to imagine I'm probably going to take a bit of a backseat overall until December the 12th is done and are we going to have a majority minority coalition etc will be the the main driver so for the pound it's probably other than that Monday being pretty tricky to trade unless you took the approach of okay the pound is you know I'm expecting still a conservative majority wears a good place for me to buy this market well how about the lows where the buyers have taken over and it's in hindsight being a good little trade to keep an eye on if that is the view then the pivot today looks good you've got the high of yesterday morning the pivot as a place to potentially get in to drive price higher as well so only the the main headline you would say is for our removing seats they're not taking the deal for now the polling is going to be that main driver for the Aussie dollar like with many of the the dollar pairs has just been drifting lower over the week we then had in the employment data overnight yesterday that was bad and of course we drifted lower and we haven't really recovered or we didn't really recover yesterday the pivot today worth keeping an eye on not really for any other reason than it is the pivot but also the age and session high I'd still be keeping a watch on that 240 time frame of any of those previous lows here looking at the the 25th of October if we can come back to test that today around 68 17 that could be relatively important we did on Wednesday morning have a push higher that in correlation with the the Kiwi pushing 1% on the interest rates decision they kept rates on hold despite free cuts this year saying that not much had changed since their August meeting to warrant a cut that push price higher dragged down yesterday by the Aussie dollar weakness only to push higher with a bit of dollar weakness as well into the back end of the session and that's sitting relatively middle range for the Kiwi going forward but the fact that they're not looking to have cut rates for now I think has to be seen as an overall positive in the market the yen actually has been a market which has drifted higher this week and if you were to say well stocks are at all time highs you know you'd be a bit surprised to see the yen has had a decent week where you know you can see here we started where's the 11th here and we pretty much one two three four days in a row of course this is the fifth where we have made a new high and so interesting to see the yen has been been going higher yes there's been a couple of mixed trade signals which have brought stocks down a touch but stocks are at all time highs in the end you can see also following suit so there's a sign there a bit of dollar weakness perhaps the euro and pound also have been and the Aussie dollar have been under pressure themselves so the yen pushing on but perhaps if stocks go into the week on those all-time highs the level we've seen just traded now which technically looks really nice and you can see that breakdown area that we had from the beginning of the month you know it wouldn't be surprising to see that as potential high for a while the trend line from those lows even though it's not perfect is something I'll be looking to have on as well for an opportunity to get short for the the close of the week moving over to oil main comment in a very range bound last couple of weeks it has to be said positive talk from bar kindo two days ago in the afternoon that pushed price to the top of the range but yet again it cannot close above the all-important 57 mid 57s and we're not all back down in the middle of the range do we's obviously not helping things yesterday of course as you can see a bearish release put in this longer time frame why is that level important well you can see going back to September time we that's where we broke down and we just cannot close above when we do if we do I should say opportunity wise you'd have got to imagine there's a nice little push there towards 59 60 but for now it's a range bound market and we're in the right in the middle here as well I guess going forward always worth of these to see if we can get any trend lines on they're not matching up as of yet but if we if we were to have a trend on these lows also with yesterday and the low of the day that's coming in around 56 60 gold has been certainly an interesting market I mean if you were to look at just the let's go back where's the 11th just the the five days of this week you can see we're pretty much exactly where we opened on Sunday evening not much has changed we pushed obviously lower from the the big break and I've got it marked up here around 1464 66 let me just make this a bit of a thicker line because this is your line in the sand for the week do we close back above there bullish do we close below bearish we've had a couple of days where the bears have been in control and it looked like this level is now going to be such a strong resistance and we go then at the back end of some sessions we have poor negative trade comments that we've reached a snag and gold has gone higher we now just hit that key line in the sand which is the s1 and perhaps having a little bit of a push higher but for me it's all about where do we close this week and you can see the importance of that level also looking longer term I've seen quite a lot of talk on Twitter about people wanting to get short 1480 you can see why such good support for the whole of October breaking down early November that will certainly attract some sellers technically anyway S&P as we mentioned pushing pushing on keeping a watch on any of these previous levels of resistance they can of course act to support today as long as the trend continues and it seems as though it's going to take something pretty bearish to to throw things off course FOMO taking over I mean what's going to happen if there actually is a deal where is this market going to go has Trump played a blinder or is this something we've seen before which will come on to of course with that the article from the map design the DAX range bound the DAX is range bound look at that big ranges to take into consideration if you want to maybe wait for more momentum big headline to come through looking for a break either way predicting which way that will go for now I have to say is relatively difficult as well but yeah just coming off in the first part of the open and you would have to say the pivot while there's a level is bang on in the middle of the range as well so whether you'd want to take a trade on there or not remains to be seen T-notes follow the yen and to an extent gold in pushing higher in the last couple of days only to come down in early trade but we are just having a bit of a recovery this morning no real headlines have come through that I have seen so maybe just a slight bit of risk on to open up the morning having a look at the calendar for today so we've you know that's how we've got to where we are for for now just going to drag the the calendar into the picture and have a look what could drive price into the back end of the session well the morning we've got final readings out of Europe for inflation numbers are not expecting a big move from that Germany avoiding recession only saw a little spy cover direction 130 retail sales will be something to keep an eye on but we know usually when that data comes out there's suddenly a reason for it price comes back and we move on as well so not expecting really this data to have a long lasting impact on the market it's industrial production something else to keep an eye on and as well as the the New York Fed manufacturing numbers also at 130 a couple of speakers but nothing of real no power has finished his two-day testimony summary not much really there so relatively quiet on the data front that could move markets so business as usual unless there's some negative trade headlines that come through and really that could be a great opportunity to see these markets come lower the pound is going to be I guess on polling but we've only just started and whether you're going to have a long lasting move off that I'm not too sure headlines overnight though what were the the comments Larry could low potentially the the main talking point of markets of why we had first hiring in Asian trade they rose in the back end of the Asian session and overnight as White House advisor could low said in agreement is coming down to the short strokes concerns about the difficulty of completing a phase one pact had propelled treasuries earlier in the week as we said with the yen as well and arrested stock market rally that had took benchmarks took benchmarks to record highs however of course we have continued to push on Larry could low going to say we are coming down to those short strokes we are in communication with them every single day right now this actually followed from Trump earlier saying that a deal was close but not done yet so it seems as though Trump is just just say just on the other side of things not wanting to to give it away and there was a tweet let me see if I can just bring this into picture from from Anthony actually I retweeted it and it seems as though it is about to start to come to fruition in my opinion anyway so Anthony here tweeting back in the beginning of the month China has requested to stop further tariffs rollback September and lower those from last year recent US data has been firm agreed US stocks at all time highs still deal to be signed in US political appearances and US would lose leverage I just can't see the US conceding here but me the whole deal blows up listen the we've been here before we've absolutely been here before if we look back to quarter two of this year and the same thing has happened so I don't think that's a bad prediction and it's one way if you're looking to trade it you're waiting for that signal and in that market has to come down quite a fair bit we're at record highs we've been pushing higher on phone mode we can't have two days in a row that are negative this market of any real concrete bad news I mean it's coming down it's going to come down pretty quickly the US what they are demanding of this deal of course getting into the weekend when we were expecting that chili meat at the summit to be this weekend of course that has been delayed but the US demanding that China spell out how it plans to reach as much as 50 billion dollar in agricultural imports annually has been one sticking point as have discussions over what action the US will take to roll back tariffs in return for phase one deal so a bit of murmurs this week on that but nothing really concrete that's coming through any bad headline has then been met with a good one and the algo is going off that late last night there was a comment from the FT or a source from the FT saying that the trade deal wasn't looking likely algo little spike then you get the pump from could low and look we go all-time record highs but you know from a perspective of a ball where you think this deal is going to get done and you know why on earth would you not be buying these dips if a market keeps making highs and highs and highs any dip is an opportunity to buy and if we take the S&P and go back to when I was you know so so confident in that we are going to make all-time highs and this is you know going back to 2017 here any dip was a buying opportunity you had obviously trump getting in the election the previous year promising this all amazing tax deal and we were just pushing higher and higher and higher and people couldn't believe it but look how you know this is going back to where we're trading sort of mid and early 2000s we're now a thousand points higher than that and people are just going off that that this deal is going to get done any dip is a place for me to buy I also think maybe the Fed are going to continue to be dovish what this market does continue to go higher until we get a concrete bad headline just realized I didn't have the the chart up there so just going back to 2017 and just reiterating the fact that this market this ground higher and higher and higher and the opportunity to buy the dip was there and it is now those dips are a lot smaller for the moment they're still both sides have sent positive signals though let's not just say it's all been negative this week they are still intent of an agreement China has resumed significant purchases of farm exports since Trump mentioned and announced plans for the phase one deal on October the 11th so just over a month ago for yesterday Beijing also lifted a ban on American poultry which has been in as have been a ban since 2015 after US Department of Agriculture made a similar decision to allow Chinese poultry into the US following that and moving over to the US and Europe could go went on to say that no decision has been made on whether to impose or delay as many expect new auto tariffs on imported cars and parts on the the EU the president the president received a letter from lightsiders office and he is considering it could low said so one to keep a watch on maybe over the weekend in the coming weeks between the EU and US I know many people have different views on on what's going to happen but it looks like at the moment a delay is inevitable so maybe if they are to impose that could be an opportunity to sell the tax and actually look to get down to the bottom of that range interesting article as I mentioned in the briefing this one here and I know it takes the the mickey a bit and and maybe Trump has played a blind there and he still maybe got one correction to deal with in stock markets before we're all time highs next year it's a really good one I'm just going to post this in the chat now we've tweeted it from Amplifiers Twitter I would have a bit of light reading perhaps in this morning it's a fair whack of a of an article and it just goes over the key points and dates from the trade war trade talks over the last few years actually an important point I want to make in summary of this is if you give me one sec in and it's this are we there yet are we finally there the events of the past the past few weeks fit a pattern of false dawns in the trade war so this immediately sort of drew my attention it reminded me of what happened in May when we were very close to a deal that had taken months to put together and then within days trumpet threaten new tariffs and place Chinese telecommunications gear maker Huawei on a blacklist restricting its ability to buy hardware software and services from American high tech suppliers so we have been here before when stocks have been at all time highs when a deal has been close and look what happens when that that comes to play and here is that that sort of that that time sorry around May and the stock market will come under pressure you can see from that high to the low you're talking you know nearly 8% I mean looking at this here now is I think a collapsing trade and you know I would say 2950 comes quite quick if you're Trump what would you do would you would you want it now this early for the phase one deal or do you still want the Fed to be dovish at the beginning of next year and have a cut because in summary from yesterday of Jerome Powell it's kind of what we said the day before he sees a few risks likely to rail record US expansion is going to be you know data dependent but they're on a pause right now so they're not looking to cut as they are suggesting as well they're suggesting that they're not looking to cut so Trump has to play this one carefully my opinion is this time next year stocks are higher are higher than where they are now but there's a correction that's got to come I'm with Anthony I think this deal blows up I think that then gets the the Fed to be dovish I think we get a cut in the beginning or middle of next year phase one deal then gets done I know it seems then potentially a bit last minute Trump then gets an amazing trade deal or or says it that way the Fed have cut stocks are on all-time highs and he wins the election that's how I think he will play it but for now while there's no real concrete bad headline stocks have to you know continue to push higher as well looking elsewhere here a good article again from from Bloomberg and I did see some some decent graphics that Anthony retweeted from BBC just going over the general election and talking about some of the seats that have majority so do check that out from Anthony there I'll just retweet that now for on the Amplify account but here from Bloomberg as well it's just going into detail about which ones are going to be targeted by each party so here if we're looking at the S&P they're targeting obviously the Labour Conservative Lib Dem seats in in Scotland three of which were won by less than one percent of the vote in 2017 Labour targeting Conservatives uh Loughborough in the East Midlands which was split down the middle 50.1 percent to leave the EU they're also targeting Conservative seats in London that voted to remain in the 2016 referendum my opinion is they actually could do quite well in in some parts of London the DUP sees Johnson's deal as threatening threatening the unity of the UK meaning he can no longer rely on their votes in parliament yeah I think DUP will not be of course involved in that and Conservatives are targeting Labour Labour seats in the middle and north of England that voted to leave the EU Stoke on trend north in the Midlands voted 72 percent to leave the target in there and Lib Dems want to pick up Conservative and Labour seats in London as well so here you've got some of those targets and you can see just the the balance there for the remain and leave percentages so that some of them are pretty tight so you've got some of the Labour targets there expect Corbyn to appear in at these places expect Boris and his team to be appearing and doing speeches at these ones so these are you know some of the targets that they will be heading into and trying to get some traction in so when looking for polls to be the driver these are the ones that I'm interested in these are the ones that I want to to see um you know swing one way or another to then lead to the central you know these conservative targets all start to go the way of conservatives in the polls well now I'm looking for some pound strength and we can be talking about that majority coming in and pound goes higher if it goes the other way and maybe Lib Dems or Labour start to get some traction well hang on now we're either looking at a minority or perhaps a Labour majority which of course at the moment is very unlikely and the pound from what we've been suggesting has got to come lower so a decent article there again I'll put that in Trading Live we've retreated it from the the Amplify account as well party politics we've gone through this before but no harm in just reiterating that conservatives obviously forcing that Brexit deal through with a conservative majority this becomes more likely Jeremy Corbyn renegotiate Brexit deal with the EU within six months and then hold a referendum he did he did say a referendum yes they wouldn't be done within the first two years of him being in in office if it was the case I had to struggle I think to with Labour's a tricky one they don't really know what they want to do if they I mean I honestly think if they were clear here and said look you know we're just going to be a complete remain party we want to get out I think they could they could generally think they could actually win the election but under Corbyn it doesn't seem that that is likely at the moment um Joe Swinson of the the Liberal Democrats reverse Brexit process and stay in the EU Lib Dems I think will do quite well and the S&P whole or reverse Brexit process it'll be a massive massive massive shock if they were to get some real traction uh as well you've got some of the the points there on the economy and health I think unfortunately they will really get swept under the carpet here as it is in theory for me anyway a bit of a a second referendum is happening now the general election so yeah you can try and and say all this for the economy and health all these these promises of what they will deliver but ultimately I feel it will come down to do you want us to leave if you do conservatives if you don't labor or Lib Dems but yeah a decent article there here's the recent polls conservatives have a strong lead labor just over the last couple of weeks of taking over from a brief change of the guard with the Liberal Democrats there Brexit party have been pushing lower if you want a conservative majority for the opportunity to go long pound you want that to continue for the Brexit party if they do start to take some of these seats and that they're still running it just puts the spanner in the works and overall would be pound negative as well but a decent article there just to to have a watch on as well quick final look over that calendar just to build up that morning you've got some final numbers out at 10 a.m not expecting much a data slate at 1 30 to keep an eye on and then to to wrap things up industrial production to 15 as well stocks are just pushing lower this morning the DAX coming down to its pivot as we've been tested right now safe havens is having a bit of risk off to start the day but let's remember stocks are on all-time highs going into the weekend I wouldn't fancy having any short new short-term positions still held on as a course it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world at this deal phase one deal meets a stumbling block and we get lower on the weekend it would not be a surprise but for now FOMO taking over the buying the dip is still there any questions as usual please do let us know hope you'll have a good trading day and even better weekend