 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Ugly weekend rain, disgusting washout. I've been looking at a lot of charts putting in that work. It really is amazing. If you guys remember, for all you guys who are basketball fans, Kobe Bryant had an epic performance against the Toronto Raptors. Forget what year it was. He dropped 81 points, right? Everybody congratulated him about this phenomenal performance and it was great. One of the most historical moments in NBA history, but what people didn't see and really didn't appreciate was the thousand shots a day that he puts up. The countless hours of strength training, being in the gym, mental preparation, all to get to that moment that you can seize the opportunity for possible success. And the moral of the story is today is a disgusting outside day, especially in the Northeast. Instead of sitting there watching Netflix, or again, I get it, everybody loves college football. I'm a football fan myself. But you've got to put in the work, man. When you put in the work, the hours and hours that you put on the work, off hours, it's going to translate till you get on the field the next day. And a lot of people think it's just cool and it's okay just to wake up at 9.25 in the morning, look at the pre-market high list and start from there. It's a losing formula. It's a losing proposition. It's fool's gold. Even if you make, you'll never make consistently because, again, your mind is not focused on the big picture. Your mind is focused on the hot stock of the day. And keep this in mind, the hot stock of the day is already put in 90, 95% of its average terrain. So you're playing with crumbs. That's why so many traders after two, three years still trading the same thing, running on the same treadmill, not getting anywhere because you're sitting there waiting for something to play out that you're not prepared for. And so on a day like this, on every single day, new traders, again, get into the habit every weekend. Look at 1,000, 2,000 charts a day. You don't even need to understand what you're looking for. Get into the habit of at least looking at data, looking at price points, looking at why stocks move, why stocks rejected, why stocks stalled out, why stocks broke out, why stocks broke down. Eventually it's going to all click in, right? It's all going to click in. But without you sitting there and putting in the work and sitting there watching Netflix all day, and I love Netflix, okay? But my priorities are my priorities, okay? You get in that work, which you put out will always put in, right? So let's start from there. So all you guys who are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for tuning in. Like, subscribe, share, all that good stuff. And thank you very much for spending some time with us. So a couple of things I always talk about, okay? Number one, I've always said nobody knows anything, okay? Nobody knows anything. If you ever watched this broadcast from more than once, you kind of know that we're not predicting what's going to happen three months from now, three years from now, three days from now. Our job is to win tomorrow, okay? Not the next week, not the following week to be right. Our job is to win tomorrow. And the second thing that I always talk about on every single video is be prepared on both sides, okay? You can't just be fixated, have the rose-colored glasses on and always concentrate on one side of the market. You have to be prepared on both sides, and that's exactly what we've done. So if you look at what the market did accomplish in the last four or five days, it was very, very impressive. It started with the previous two Fridays ago, a hot jobs number that went initially gap down very aggressively 1% all across the board to rebound 1.5% all across the board. We continuously discounted both the PPI, the CPI. You got hot data continues to come in, which basically is giving us the idea, at least gives us the impression that the Fed is going to be in a holding pattern to at least the next, right? The next performance, I like to call it, in November. And obviously the big story, continuous story continues to be the horrific and graphic images they're putting out out of the Middle East on both sides, murder, death, just insane. The humanity is a disappointment. We've been saying this for a long, long time. It's just insane to begin to even think about how human beings cannot coexist on this wonderful, beautiful planet that we have. And it's just a sad, sad and fair and it just keeps on getting worse. Again, I don't watch the news. It's just incredibly depressing. But boy, oh boy, as soon as you go on Twitter, as soon as you open up any, any site, you're talking, you're seeing the death toll and this and that and the third. And again, this is another bloodshed weekend happening as we speak, right? And unfortunately, the death toll is going to rise. But let's talk about from the trading point of view. Okay. And so we had this really good rally for the last four days. Okay, we reclaim the 50 day moving average. And again, if you are a brand new trader who are joining us for the first time, write this down. If you don't get any piece of valuable, valuable information from me, just write this down. This is the most basic case of technical analysis. Anything above the 50 day moving average is deemed bullish. Anything below the 50 day moving average is deemed bearish because the 50 day moving average is the birth of a trend. So if you see what happened here on last week, we got above the 50 day moving average and in four days, keep this in mind, in four days, the Nasdaq 100, right? The QQQs went from 360 all the way to 374. You had a 15 point move, 15 point move in four days of the QQQs. Again, that's how impressive, important, you know, reclaiming the level is. And then slowly but surely we started seeing on Thursday there was a bond. There was a bond. What was it? I forgot exactly what it was. I think there was $30 billion worth of bonds that were auctioned off that the market didn't like the price really sold off the market. The good part about that was on Thursday's close, the bulls not only held the five day moving average, they defended the 50. The problem was Friday, that didn't last too long. And if you watched the video on Thursday, it was Wednesday or Thursday night. I think it was Wednesday night. We were talking about how bullish the market was. And we had an incredibly bullish day. The first four hours of the day and the video was up 10, you know, this one was up 10. And that one is everything's going nuts. And then that tip-off auction came in. The market sold off very aggressively. Friday, you heard some just disgusting graphic images coming out of the Middle East with kids and babies. Oh my, I came and think about it. It's just horrific, even major. And the market just started retreating and treating retreating very aggressively. And the process giving back the 50 day moving average, which is not good. Okay, we'll get to that in a second of why it could be something more coming into this week. Earnings did kick off this week. On the unofficial start to earnings, well, the official start of earnings did come out this week. You had Citibank. The initial move on Citibank was pretty good. You had JP Morgan, right? The initial move on JP Morgan was good and everything came in, right? So forth and so on. So the banks actually said some good things. But when you have a macro geopolitical, just a crazy event that's going on, the market's not going to really care how good a company is coming out with earnings. They're looking at the big picture. And obviously the big picture started to get very gruesome very, very quickly and things started selling. Earnings will continue this week. Monday, you have Schwab. Tuesday, you have Bank of America. Bank of New York, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson. And Wednesday is the big one for at least technology. Before the open, you have Morgan Stanley. You have Ally Financial. You have Procter & Gamble. But after the close, kicks off with land research on Netflix. And we'll get to Netflix in a second. Again, if you were watching this broadcast, Netflix has been getting destroyed. And congratulations to all you guys who've been writing it down. So you have land research. You have Netflix. And my favorite, your favorite, the world's favorite, Love It or Hate It stock, Tesla, right? Comes out Wednesday after the close. And we saw a pretty big all week. We've been seeing some pretty big call buying come in the 280s, the 300s in November and January. But the way the market closed and to kind of see how it unfolds going forward, we don't know. Right? We don't know if those guys are uncertain to borrow a term from billions, show times, show billions. But we don't know. But so far the buying has been pretty aggressive, pretty on repeat for Tesla going into earnings for the 280s, 280s, 280 fives and the 300s going into January. So let's look at the big picture. Right? Let's kind of see where we are. The QQQs start the week below the 50 day moving average. So far they held the 10. These are the numbers that are very, very important throughout the weeks. Write this down. If the bears want to continue to put back the pressure and get the market back to the bottom of the range, the bears are going to have to take control of 64 area. You see this 10 day moving average, the green line, right? If the bulls completely stop defending this 10 day moving average and any close blows to 364, it should start a sequence of events, multiple sequel events to the downside. Now keep this in mind. You have a slew of earnings coming out this week. Obviously Tesla, Netflix, LAM research, they're big companies, right? They're part of the NASDAQ 100. So if Netflix comes out with blow up earnings, right, the markets can obviously react good. If Tesla comes out with blow out earnings, the market's going to actually, good. But from the surface, you have to be prepared to kind of understand on the surface where we are. So the bulls need to defend 364. That is a 10 day moving average. Any close blow 364 is going to be bad and we should start trending all the way back down for the bulls to start getting back and get their feet set under them. They have to reclaim back the 50 day moving average. That is roughly 367. So 367 to the upside is deemed bullish. 364 to the downside is deemed bearish or needs to sell signal. And again, you have to work around all the news events and all the moving parts and all the earnings that are coming up around that. Obviously nothing is set in stone. Like I said, we have to be prepared for everything. So 367 upside, 364 downside. SPX, right? Let's look at the SPX. SPX all this time has been below the 50 day moving average. Unlike its brother and sister in arms, the S&P has been below. And that is deemed with a lot of banks, energy, retail names, right? Not a great sector. Again, oil has been surging since all this has been going on. But overall, the S&P still is below the 50 day moving average for any type of aggressive move in the S&P. The S&P needs to reclaim 4,400 on the close. And for the bear case, if the market loses 4,283, then we're going to start going back below. So it's very, very important. The IWM has just been kind of a non-factor. We've been way below. And I say we, I mean them. I don't concentrate on the IWM. But if you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you kind of know how important, you know, the speculation money has left the building a long, long time ago, ever since they gave back the 50 day moving average in September. Okay. So let's talk about, let's talk about some pivots from Friday. And this is kind of what we talk about. You have to be prepared on both sides. We were prepared on both sides. And now I'll give you guys some ideas going into the new week. So let's talk about it, right? So Friday, right? Friday, I, hold on. I start, okay. Sorry about that. So I always put upside pivots, right? I always put upside pivots and I always put downside pivots because again, you just don't know how the day is going to play out. So we were looking at NVIDIA to the upside pre-market, Amazon to the market, Microsoft to the pre-market. The only one that confirmed was Microsoft. What about a dollar? We didn't have a chance to trade it. They just ran it off right before the open. So that was all gone. And slowly, but surely you started seeing the market just lose its luster, kind of losing its focus, started losing its upside. And then the downside channels quickly kicked in and there was some really, really aggressive moves. And this is kind of what we talk about. If you notice here, you'll see two pivots on Microsoft, one to the upside, one to the downside. And I've always maintained this guys, don't fall in love with the stock, fall in love with technical analysis and fall in love with the channels. And that's exactly what the PS60 theory is all about. We fall in love with the setup, not the stock. And you can see here, there was an upside pivot on Microsoft that went without us. And then there was a Microsoft pivot to the downside that went pretty good. So the first one, TTD8376, if it builds below can flush. Here is TTD, right? So it took out 8376. Again, that's the five-day moving average. If you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you know how important the five-day is. That is short-term sentiment. Whoever has control of short-term sentiment has control of that day. So TTD lost the 8376 five-day and went all the way down to 80 big move move there as well. Microsoft, right? If the upside you miss, there's always a downside pivot. 32872, if it builds below can flush. Here is Microsoft, right? Again, same thing. It lost the five-day, right? See this orange line? Lost the five-day. Once it lost 32872, Microsoft went down to 326. Okay? Google, 13826, if it builds below can flush. Here is Google, right? Here is Google. Lost the five-day again. Lost the 33826, traded down to 136 and change. And then Tesla got hit pretty good. 25663, if it builds below can flush. Here is Tesla, right? Lost the 5663 and traded down to the 50-day. Here is where we want to concentrate from Monday, okay? I'm not talking about what's going to happen to it on earnings on Wednesday or after Wednesday. We want to talk about Tesla on for Monday. You see how Tesla, it went from 256 to 250, right? You see this 50-day moving average? The 50-day moving average has held several times, three times in the last three weeks. Guys, watch Tesla for Monday. Again, this is nothing to do with earnings. Tesla could be up 50 on earnings, right? We don't know. But let's keep an eye on this for Monday. Because if Monday Tesla loses the 50-day moving average, guys, we could get a pretty good trade before Wednesday's trade. Remember, guys, we have three sessions, three full sessions before Tesla's earnings. That's Monday full day, Tuesday full day, and Wednesday full day because they come out with earnings Wednesday after hours. So let's watch the 50-day moving average on Tesla, guys. If this thing falls, I think we could get a pretty good swan dive ahead of earnings. One definitely, definitely to watch for Monday. AFRM, a little bit slower mover. 1830 held three times on the 60-minute. 18 weekly puts are coming in. If it builds below, it can flush. Here was AFRM. Not a big move, obviously. This is not a Tesla we're talking about. This is an $18 stock. AFRM, right? So it lost the 1830, traded down to 1857. Nice move there as well. And this was definitely one of the biggies here. FT&T were still watching. I like this thing below earnings low. NVIDIA, 463.30s if it builds below can flush the five-day. Remember, we're talking about Tesla. Remember, we're talking about Google, Apple, right? All these stocks off the five-day. The five-day support is 42.30s if it builds below can get aggressive. That's exactly what NVIDIA did. It lost the five-day moving average. It went from 463 all the way down to 453. Really great move. That was definitely the big one, at least for me, for the day. And most important going into this week, guys, let's watch for potential another leg down. Let's watch the video for another leg down. Let's definitely watch Tesla for another leg down. Let's definitely... Let me give you guys some other names that I am looking at. Let me give you guys some other names that I'm looking at here. Yeah, they're all beta names, guys. Let's keep an eye on Apple. If it loses the 50-day moving average, can hit. We talked about Tesla. We talked about NVIDIA. Look at AMD, right? Look at AMD as well. AMD is right on the 50-day moving average. If AMD loses the 50-day moving average, it can get hit as well. Look at Meta, right? Look at Meta, right? Let Meta hit. I lost the five to about the 10. It takes out the 10-day is more downside ahead. If you are going through charts this weekend, everybody should pay attention to the stocks that are close to the 50-day. Pay attention to the names that are potentially about to lose the five or the 10. Because if they do lose, we've seen examples here every single day, especially the ones we just gave you today. You could get some more aggressive selling. Guys, have a great weekend. Hope everybody is doing well. Guys, watch Tesla. Definitely Tesla before earnings because that 50-day is super duper important. If it does lose that 50-day, well, you know what's going to happen next. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend. Enjoy your life. You only have one life to live. Be pleasant. Be happy. Be empathetic to another human being. Let's stay around as long as possible to enjoy this big, beautiful world we have. God bless everybody. See you Monday.