 Good morning, my name is Steve Hadley. I'm chairman of the board of the US Institute of Peace And I want to thank you all for coming this morning and welcome you all to USIP For those of you who don't know USIP is a congressionally created and congressional organization We have a bipartisan board of directors that is confirmed by the Senate And we do non-partisan work in the area of conflict, prevention, mitigation, and resolution As we see every day in the public media The world is full of sources of conflict, religious differences, ethnic differences, tribal differences But we at USIP believe that these sources of conflict Do not need to descend to armed conflict And that there are methods and processes that can prevent conflicts from becoming armed conflicts And at USIP our job is to identify, teach, and train people in these methods and processes And then to apply them on the ground in conflict zones to prevent, mitigate, and resolve conflict Our program today Focuses on one conflict zone, Afghanistan, where USIP has been involved for over a decade In helping to develop policies, practices, and programs that seek to end the conflict And bring peace Our program today will begin with a keynote address by ambassador James Dobbins Who is the special representative for afghanistan and pakistan within the us department of state We will then go to two panels. The first is entitled afghanistan in the united states the long view And we need to take a long view here It will the panel include four experts including ambassador mark grossman who was jim dobbins predecessor as special representative And it will be moderated by andrew wilder who heads the center for south and central asia here at the us Institute of peace The second panel will be on the future of media in afghanistan again for distinguished panelists And shared by david ensor as moderator From head of voice of america We hope that you can conclude from today's program That afghanistan still matters to the united states That america's national security interests are best served by the emergence of a stable and prosperous afghanistan That this objective can still be achieved And that what has been Accomplished in afghanistan over the last decade Offers some grounds for optimism that we can achieve this objective For afghanistan has made great progress over the last 12 years in health education's women's rights And economic development and you will hear about that today in these remarks and panels And you will also hear about the political progress that the afghan people have made A presidential election is scheduled for this coming april fifth For the first time in afghan history There is the prospect that power will be handed peacefully and democratically from one leader to another The presidential campaign is on in force and recent visitors to cabal have noted Walls and billboards plastered with election campaign posters And unprecedented debate about the issues facing afghanistan today All these issues will be addressed this morning I would like to thank david ensor Head of the voice of america who will chair the second panel and also deliver closing remarks david first had the idea of this event He came to usip asked if we would be willing to cosponsor it and of course we were delighted to do so. Thank you david I would also like to thank the third co-organizer of this event the alliance for the support of the afghan people The alliance was created fairly recently And one of its main purposes is to promote precisely the kind of discussions that we hope to have here today So with that, I would like to introduce our keynote speaker ambassador james dobbins ambassador dobbins was appointed as special representative for afghanistan and pakistan in may of last year Prior to that, he was director of the rand international security and defense policy center Vassiter dalmonds has held numerous high-level state department and white house posts He has also become perhaps the most experienced diplomatic troubleshooter in the u.s. Government He was the clinton and george w bush administrations special envoy for afghanistan kosovo bosnia haiti and samalia All the global garden spots. He hit them all He his work has involved him intimately in the withdrawal of u.s. Forces from samalia The american-led multilateral intervention in haiti The stabilization reconstruction of bosnia and the nato intervention in kosovo He is truly a man for all seasons and is a good friend After september 11th 2001 ambassador dobbins was appointed as the bush administrations representative to the afghan opposition With the task of putting together a broadly based successor to the ousted taliban regime He represented the united states at the bond conference that was established established the new afghan government And on december 16th 2001 He raised the flag over the newly reopened u.s. Embassy in Kabul I can't think of a better person to be entrusted with guiding u.s. Policy through the challenges and opportunities of the political and security transition in afghanistan ambassador dobbins Well, thank you very much, steve and thanks to usip to voa and to the alliance for the support of the afghan people For organizing this event and for inviting me to join you today To the extent that afghanistan has impeded on the american consciousness over the past year It's largely been the security transition That has dominated most news authorities have focused on the u.s. And nato drawdown the increasing role of afghan forces and conducting and leading the fight and looking forward on the On the fate of the bilateral security agreement and the continued uncertainty about whether the united states and nato will continue Will be staying or going in 2015 In afghanistan by contrast Increasing attention is being paid to another transition That has been put in train that from one elected leader to another If the security transition goes badly, it may not make any difference Who's governing afghanistan next year? But the reverse is also true If this political transition does not take place successfully nothing achieved in the security sphere is likely to endure So if the bad news is That there that uncertainty about the conclusion of the bsa continues to cloud the security transition The good news is that the political transition continues to move forward on schedule And so far without significant disruption Important progress uh this past summer including passage of electoral laws appointment to electoral institutions The finalization of the electoral operation plan all these have put the afghans afghans in a much better place Than previous cycles Additionally the candidates nominated nomination period concluded Vetting of candidates took place Hundreds of complaints against both presidential and provincial council candidates were adjudicated And final candidate lists were announced including a list of 11 presidential hopefuls The independent election commission has demonstrated its growing capacity and institutional strength In preparation for the upcoming elections The announcement of electoral timeline operational plan ballot procurement design and distribution along with administrative guidance staffing and regular meetings with candidates civil society And electoral organizations continues to help create an environment of transparency contributing to rising confidence in the electoral process The successful voter registration drive begun during the summer of 2013 In which new voters registered by the millions Largely without incident also demonstrates greater iec capacity Although there is thus room for optimism in the iec's performance Overt political pressure could of course Still derail this progress Fortunately political entities have so far largely refrained from interfering in the electoral preparations And indeed afghan officials have even been disciplined for engaging in political activity The independent electoral complaints commission is a relatively new institution Permanently established through the passage of a new electoral law The ecc successfully adjudicated complaints stemming from candidate registrations in october But has since made slower progress The slow place of appointing provincial officers delayed the establishment of provincial Electoral complaint commission offices and the memorandum of understanding between the iec and ecc to collate Locate in provinces and clarify relations between the two independent bodies has not yet been finalized However, the publication of the electoral complaints commission rules of procedure Along with the february 18th inauguration of 102 provincial ecc commissioners does represent important progress The afghan security forces are hard at work With security planning for the upcoming elections and they are devoting all available resources and energy To planning for many plausible contingencies They're working in coordination with the electoral commission to strike the right balance To increase participation without increasing the opportunities for fraud On january 12th the ministry the interior issued its assessment of polling center security And concluded that 414 of the 6845 polling centers would be inaccessible on election day Since then the iec has added an additional 323 polling centers to this list of those that would probably be inaccessible On february 19th the iec published Publicly released its list of 6,775 polling centers With 21,663 polling stations across the country The iec does not intend to add any additional polling centers to this list But given the dynamic security environment Some of those that have already been announced as open could fall into the close category by election day The release of polling of the polling center list six weeks before the poll takes place Marks a significant improvement over the 2009 elections When the polling center list was released only days before the election Election monitoring and observation is one of the best ways to mitigate fraud And ensure credibility of the electoral process Consistent with afghan responsibility for afghan elections domestic observer observation efforts are being bolstered to enable over 12 000 domestic observers to monitor these upcoming elections Over 300 000 candidate agencies are also expected to participate in these monitoring efforts The iec is also inviting international observers to take part national democratic institution ndi democracy international and the international crisis groups Are the three are the three american organizations who are currently fielding international Observation groups accredited to the electoral commission The european union and the osce also plan to send electoral monitoring teams USAID has awarded eight million dollars to support two independent international election observer missions for the upcoming elections The us will continue to support the election process in a variety of ways While in no respect absolutely no respect supporting any particular candidate or party Let me say a few words about the campaign today posters As the presidential campaign kicked off in cabal beginning on april on sorry on february 2nd Posters appeared overnight and thousands attended rallies Enthusiasm for the election is on the rise and afghan society is showing increased democratic political sophistication With lively media coverage focusing on candidate rallies platforms and voter opinions A series of television live debates Focused on issues rather than ethnicity Have been particularly well received Afghan news outlets offered minute by minute of debate updates on their portals facebook pages and twitter feeds As candidates exchange views on security foreign affairs the bilateral security agreement corruption economics and women's rights four weeks in The the the various presidential campaigns are increasing their presence outside cabal independent afghan media outlets Are highlighting citizen requests for the candidates to travel to the provinces and present their platforms in person afghan civil society organizations are also inviting candidates to events and questions And answer sessions to explain their platforms and thoughts for example one conference Earlier this month brought together many presidential candidates and campaign officials with women from 34 provinces to discuss substantive policy concerns The first time something like this has ever occurred in afghanistan Overall a cautious sense of optimism has taken hold in afghanistan regarding these elections Whereas a year ago many afghans doubted that these elections would ever take place More afghans are now confident about the process and hopeful that the elections and hopeful about the elections If successful the elections can pave the way for afghan's first peaceful and democratic transfer of power in its history Afghans are heading to the poll at a time of rising incomes Rising longevity rising literacy Rising mobility Rising political engagement and also of course Rising uncertainty about the future Despite this uncertainty about the security transition and about the continued international commitment Recent polling suggests that afghans remain more optimistic about their future Than most americans are about afghanistan's future Indeed afghans tend to be more optimistic about their future than americans are about america's future Thus the most recent poll finds that 67 of afghans believe their country's headed in the right direction As opposed to only 33 of americans who hold a similar view Regarding our country Another striking figure is that 77 of afghans believe the upcoming elections can make a difference in their lives Afghans may be divided by ethnicity language and religion But they don't seem to be experiencing gridlock and the current presidential campaign Is not does not evidence polarization But rather the opposite as public debates are surfacing more agreement than discord on all of the major issues facing that country According to a recent asia foundation survey 76 percent of afghans Believe they are better off today than they were under the taliban Again, I think the american figures for americans would be much lower And it's easy to see why the afghans feel this way between 2002 and 2012 Afghanistan experienced a greater improvement In health in education and an overall standard of living than did any other country in the world As measured by the un development program In education literacy has increased from 12 percent of the population to 30 percent In 2002 an estimated nine nine hundred thousand boys were in school and virtually no girls Today there were over 10 million children in school nearly 40 percent of whom are girls The number of teachers has increased from 20,000 in 2002 to 175,000 today Higher education has also boomed according to the world bank Student enrollment has increased from 8,000 in 2001. This is higher in higher education To over 100,000 in public universities and institutes of higher education today And there's also been a significant increase In students enrolled in private higher education In health life expectancy is increased by more than 20 years I don't think in in the history of such statistics any country has experienced such a dramatic and Stark increase over such a short period of time In longevity As I said in the 20 years since 2002 it's gone from 42 years to 62 years Infant mortality has decreased from 257 to 77 deaths per 100 that per 1000 live births And under age and under age five mortality from 172 to 97 deaths per 100,000 births maternal maternal mortality fell even more drastically from 16,000 to 327 deaths per 100,000 births And indeed these statistics are the ones that are largely behind this increase in overall longevity Um as regards the economy afghanistan's gross domestic product has grown and estimated 9% annually since 2002 Overall the afghan economy has more than quadrupled Since the fall of the taliban exports have increased from approximately 69 million in 2002 to 380 million in 2012 Legal and regulatory reforms have improved the business Environment and have already resulted in more than 1.5 billion dollars investment in the telecom industry alone Um in 2001 There was one mobile phone company with 20,000 secure subscribers Today there are four telecom companies with more than 16 million Telephone subscribers Some offering 3g service Telecommunications telecommunications networks reach 90 of the afghan population In 2002 only 6 of afghans had access to reliable electricity Today over 30 of the population have such access Um There's also been as uh has been noted Considerable progress regarding democracy governance and press freedom Constitutional democracy has steadily taken root Afghans the afghanistan's constitution is arguably the most progressive In south and central asia Over the past 12 years afghanistan has had two presidential and parliamentary elections And two elections for provincial councils 27 percent of the seats in parliament one governor one governor Three cabinet members and 120 judicial positions are currently held by women In 2001 there was one state radio and television station Today there are over 75 television stations and 175 radio stations All but two of which are private Um regarding the status of women female literacy has increased to nearly 15 percent nationwide 30 percent among girls age uh 15 to 24 And almost 40 percent among young urban women In approximately the last five years nearly 120,000 girls have graduated from high school And an estimated 40,000 are currently enrolled In public and private universities In the executive branch three women out of 25 serve as cabinet ministers And in the legislative branch women hold 68 of the 249 seats in the national assembly Women make up approximately 25 percent of the elected provincial councils councils um Maybe the most Stunning figure regarding the changes in afghan attitudes that have taken place over the last Decade is that today five out of six afghans believe that women should have an education This is an indication that the kind of changes that we've seen Are likely to endure as long as this political and security environment Uh allows them to do so Despite all these improvements afghanistan remains one of the poorest Least developed lands on earth And also one of the more violent although by me by no means one of the most violent Despite its ethnic linguistic and religious divisions There's no ethnic cleansing going on in afghanistan and no purely sectarian violence But there is an ongoing insurgency One connected one conducted by those who would seek to reverse Much of the progress of which i've spoken These advances thus remain quite fragile A recent congressionally mandated study by the center for naval analysis Finds that afghan security forces require not just external funding But continued international military training advice and assistance for several more years If they if they are to sustain themselves against the taliban insurgency And maintain control over the major population centers This is certainly consistent with the administration's own analysis and that of our alliance partners This is why we have negotiated a bilateral security agreement And why nato is negotiating its own status of forces agreement Our intention was to have concluded the bilateral security agreement last fall To have announced our intended 2015 troop commitment shortly thereafter And to spend 2014 working with our nato allies on the disposition and functioning of this new force Unfortunately president carzai President carzai's decision Not to sign the accord that he negotiated That he is in fact not seeking to change and that he agrees is important for afghanistan Has thrown this timetable badly off On tuesday president obama told president carzai That he is open to waiting until later this year to conclude the bsa if necessary But that this delay would not be without cost While we still continue to plan for a residual force to train advise and assist the afghan security forces And to conduct limited counterterrorism mission The scale of this commitment may well wane as uncertainty over our welcome persists And we will also need to plan for the alternative of full withdrawal There are those who foresee a repetition in afghanistan of our experience in iraq three years ago When a similar uncertainty led ultimately to complete withdrawal But afghanistan is different from iraq in a number of respects Back in 2001 The iraqis Didn't want us They didn't need us And we had signed an agreement several years earlier promising to leave No iraqi figure no iraqi political figure was then ready to argue publicly For a continued american military presence iraq had plenty of its own money And the u.s had signed a legally binding agreement several years earlier committing the united states to work through our all of its troops by the end of 2011 Afghanistan is different in all of these respects The afghans want us to stay They need us to stay and we signed an agreement two years ago Committing us to a long-term security partnership Even president karzai repeatedly acknowledges the importance of the bilateral security agreement for afghanistan And nearly all other afghan leaders have urged its early conclusion Indeed it's not much of an exaggeration to say that the only prominent afghan to speak out about Against the bilateral security agreement has been mullah omar The afghan state and its security forces In contrast to those of iraq are much more dependent on continued american and international support Since 2011 iraq has seen a slow increase in terrorist violence But iraq was not then in 2011 and is still not yet in the midst of an all-out civil war By contrast in the absence of a continued train advice and assist us and nato military mission afghanistan's descent into more widespread violence and political disintegration Is likely to be more rapid Recognition of afghan's continuing need for american support Led our two governments to conclude this strategic partnership agreement in 2012 And to then immediately embark upon negotiations of the bilateral security agreement in order to Lay the groundwork for that aspect of our partnership Now i think we all know that most americans are tired of the afghan conflict And believe that the results have not justified the cost But most americans also recognize the need to withdraw gradually and responsibly Two-thirds of americans say the war was not worth fighting according to a recent abc washington post poll But 55 percent nevertheless still favor keeping some us forces there for training and counter terrorism purposes This margin of support Is narrow and likely to diminish further as long as uncertainty about our welcome persists President obama's decision to leave open the possibility of concluding the necessary agreement With a willing partner later this year provides hope that this all can still be worked out Despite president car's eyes continued refusal to conclude the agreement now But i am afraid that this delay could still prove costly Thank you Thank you ambassador dobbins. I'd now like to invite the panelists from our first uh panel discussion to come to the podium Welcome on behalf of usip. I'd also like to thank all of you for coming thanking our distinguished guests ambassador dobbins in particular But also our panelists uh for this first panel which is titled the united states in afghanistan the long view And i think it's only in a town like dc that we can talk about looking beyond 2014 as a long view But given the tendency to view have quite a reactive us afghanistan policy and relations certainly of late With lots of focus indeed on the security transition and the upcoming political transition in 2014 in particular I do think in terms of the current discourse in washington talking about life beyond 2014 in afghanistan Is taking a long view I think one of the objectives in this For today is really to try to look at the future relations between us and pakistan beyond 2014 That there is a longer term interest in this relationship I think it's also important that we have a balanced and realistic View in this relationship, and I think that was very Just what we heard from ambassador dobbins I think talking about many of the gains, but also acknowledging that there's very real challenges I'm hoping that all the media here today do not just focus on the challenges But also focus on some of the tremendous gains Because I think that is one of the real challenges And I remember working in afghanistan from 2002 to 2005 heading a policy research organization the afghanistan research and evaluation unit And in those days, I would come to gatherings like this in washington and talk about research findings Which tended to suggest that everything wasn't going necessarily quite as well Some of the public narrative was after all afghanistan was the good war And I was frequently labeled the naysayer That said I now find myself somewhat in the opposite camp where everyone else has talked to me said the steady drip drip of negative news coming out of afghanistan Trying to highlight the tremendous gains that have taken place And I think we've saw seen you know some of those in the video this morning I think ambassador dobbins gave a long list of of the incredible achievements that have taken place And having worked in afghanistan in the 1980s and 1990s, you know, it is to me incredible what has been achieved And I will take today's problems over those problems any day So I think let's I'm hoping that does come out Loud and clear in today's uh discussion I do think that a lot of the negativity of late in particular does stem from the very difficult and tortured BSA Negotiations that have taken place And I think that has been again, what's dominated a lot of the press coverage and and a lot of the discouragement I think they've been particularly frustrated, you know frustrating discussions Precisely as ambassador dobbins noted because the vast majority of off of internationals Experts in afghanistan officials working on afghanistan that I know Certainly think the bilateral security agreement is really in the in the interests of afghanistan As well as the interests of the u.s. And the international community that it is essential for Increasing the prospects for a stable and peaceful future But equally I do the vast majority of afghans. I know also feel that and so I do think that I'm hoping that some of the discussion today Highlights that you know, we we'd not just focus on the bsa, but the importance of the relationship Beyond beyond the bsa We're fortunate to have a very distinguished panel of experts with us today We deliberately decided to choose prominent american and international Officials and experts working on afghanistan To talk about the importance again the challenges But also the opportunities and the importance of a longer term engagement in afghanistan With the hopes that some of this will be transmitted. We have lots of media here today I know voice of america is also planning to use some of the coverage from today to also be broadcast it back into afghanistan So the afghans do hear that there are prominent voices speaking on behalf of the importance Of a more enduring partnership and engagement in afghanistan So with that, let me quickly introduce our panelists I think there's more detailed bio bio data outside and so I won't go into great detail But we're going to start off. We have the fortune of having ambassador mark grossman Who is currently the vice chairman of the cohen group? Ambassador grossman had a very distinguished 20-year career in the state department which included serving as the u.s. Ambassador to turkey assistant secretary of state for european affairs Then from 2001 until his retirement in 2005 he served as the under secretary of state for political affairs Which is the state department's third highest position ambassador grossman was Encouraged to come back out of retirement to take on the assignment of the u.s. Special representative for afghanistan and pakistan from 2011 to 2012 Our second panelist is claire lockhart and claire is the director and founder of the institute for state effectiveness claire also has had a long engagement with afghanistan In 2001 she was a member of the un negotiation team for the bond agreement on afghanistan She went on to spend several years living in afghanistan as an advisor to the un and the afghan government where she worked on numerous initiatives Including the afghanistan development forum national development framework and the national solidarity program She is the co-author with ashraf ghani a fixing failed states which was published by oxford university press in 2008 Our third panelist is david sudney who's had a long and distinguished career serving the u.s. government with most of assignments since 2002 Also focusing on afghanistan From 2009 to 2013 david served as a deputy assistant secretary of defense for afghanistan pakistan and central asia In the office of the assistant secretary of defense for asian and pacific security affairs Prior to this mr. Sudney with deputy assistant secretary of defense for east asia And then he also served as the dcm at the u.s. Embassy in beijing Prior to that as the deputy chief of mission at the u.s. Embassy in cabel in 2002 as well as in 2003 and 2004 And then last but not least it's a pleasure to welcome back to usip an old friend and former usip colleague alex ther alex is currently usa id's assistant to the administrator for policy planning and learning Then from june 2010 to june 2013 alex served as assistant to the administrator for afghanistan and pakistan affairs Overseeing usaid's two largest missions in the world Then before joining usaid he served here at usip as a senior rule of law advisor and director for afghanistan and pakistan from 2005 and 2010 Until he convinced me to come take his job here And then from 2002 to 2004 he was legal advisor to afghanistan's constitutional and judicial reform commission in cabel And then also in the 1990s worked in cabel in afghanistan for the un and various NGOs from 1993 until 1996 So with that i'll turn it over to you ambassador grossman each of our speakers will speak for about eight to ten minutes And then we'll have some time for a question and answer and discussion afterwards. Thank you Andrew, thank you very much Let me first of all say thanks to all the organizers of this event and what an honor it is to be on this panel alex was kind enough to say that you had Experts here not me, but the other three people really are and i'm it's an honor to be with with all of you Let me also just say if i could if you'd allow me one personal A note and that is to pay tribute to ambassador dobbins and his team And having served as a special representative for afghanistan and pakistan I know what this is about and if you'd allow me just to honor the people from the united states of america From the international forces military civilian and of course our afghan colleagues to continue this fight every day Jim we thank you very much And i thought As alex and i were saying you gave this keynote address and now what are the rest of us supposed to say? But we'll do the best that we possibly can um Andrew asked if i would talk a little bit about reconciliation elections and a very important topic i think the politics of a future relationship Between afghanistan and pakistan and i'd be pleased to do that But before i do i just wanted to kind of step back just for a moment Really and make three points and ask one question And i think it's relevant to the entire conversation we're going to have today First point and that's the one that's been emphasized here both in the films that we saw Previously in Ambassador dobbins speech and the points that andrew made it's really important It seems to me whenever we talk about afghanistan to stop just for a moment and recognize what has been achieved And not just but what has been achieved But what has been achieved at such great cost on the part of afghans part of the united states military and civilian And of course our international partners as well And so it's a matter first of all is ambassador dobbins said not just about Highlighting and not forgetting what has been achieved But very importantly by the three organizations that have organized this conference The alliance and support of the afghan people the voa And also usip is to try as ambassador dobbins said to put it back on the consciousness Of the american people. I know that when I signed up to support the asap. That's what interested me How do we keep this on the agenda? Because it's part of the international debate and certainly ought to be second point I think that's important and that is that there's a larger context here as we talk about afghanistan I think one of the things that we forget sometimes but also a lot to remain on the agenda Is the fact that afghanistan sits in this extremely important region So when the administration talks about a secure stable and prosperous afghanistan Inside of a secure stable and prosperous region. That's a really important thing And so this is yes a conference about afghanistan That's not to forget afghanistan's neighbors whether those be the central asian states pakistan India all of this it seems to me very important for American interests and third point and that is that in the year or so that I have not had the responsibility of being a special representative of afghanistan, but I'm thinking through Some of these issues I have come deeply deeply to believe that afghans will fight for what has been achieved here Since 2003 and that's the questions of the economy the women elections politics the media And afghans are going to fight for these things and I think that is one of the reasons as ambassador dobbins said You see success now Increasingly on the part of the a and s f and i'm sure david said me will have more to say About that, but I think afghans will fight And so it leads me to the question and that is do we have the patience and the courage Now to support them in their fight. I reckon that's not our fight, but it's their fight and I say that Understanding completely the frustrations that i'm sure ambassador dobbins and others You know have with the challenge right now with president carzai not signing the bsa But I think the position that the administration Has taken which is really twofold to be clear that this bsa needs to be signed That needs to be signed as quickly as possible But there's patience to wait and see if in the future there might be a signature And I think you see that clearly also in the conclusions the nato defense ministers Yesterday and today that that's about the best position that we can be in So that there's the remains a possibility of american and international forces in afghanistan on january 1 2015 Because we ought to have the patience and the courage to support them afghans in their fight The angeles say asked if I talk a moment about reconciliation and again Ambassador dobbins and I shared this responsibility the job I was given for the two years that I was the special representative and continues i'm sure Is to see if it were possible For the united states of america to open the door for afghans to talk to other afghans about the future of afghanistan And so when I think about reconciliation today, I come back to two principles principle number one is the one that I just outlined Which is there's only one reason for the united states of america to be involved in this And that is to open the door for afghans to discuss with other afghans the future of their own country And i'm sure that that it remains an effort of the special representative afghanistan and pakistan And the effort to try to move this peace process forward remains extremely important I think as secretary clinton secretary carry the president of the united states have said on so many occasions That this war isn't going to end militarily There's going to be some political end to this conflict and there ought to be some way to see if Reconciliation is possible, but there's a second Um principle as well, uh, which is uh, I always felt in the time that I had this responsibility There's kind of diplomacy Got to be backed by force and it doesn't have to necessarily be backed by american force But this is a this idea is if you're favor in favor of reconciliation Is another reason to be in favor of a sign to bsa It's another reason to be in favor of american forces and international forces in afghanistan on january 1 2015 and it's a very important reason to be in favor of continued support for the afghan national security forces Because it seems to me the taliban are watching very carefully how we work our way Through these next few months to decide whether there's going to be any pressure on them to make this step toward reconciliation And so the effect of the military effort International and afghan still really important third point seems to me on reconciliation as you look back and Certainly it makes you think about it very carefully and watching the film on women and women's rights is that the end conditions What's this reconciliation all about are still hugely important? And that's about an afghanistan that lives with the rule of law at afghanistan that supports the rights and responsibilities of all citizens But particularly Now women so I think Andrew the questions of reconciliation. I'm sure are still high on the administration's agenda But I think the principles remain very much the same Second point you asked me to talk a little bit about elections here I think ambassador dobbins has done kind of a wonderful job with that I'd say two things that are really important to me One is is what's an outcome here and the outcome is an election that is seen by most afghans As legitimate that their next leader is someone that they can say Yes, here's someone that we can't support going forward and secondly to emphasize a point that ambassador dobbins made Very important to keep repeating that the united states of america has no favorites in this has no candidates in this The afghan election is purely slowly and wholly a matter for the people of afghanistan They will choose their future leaders final point and that's a very good question that andrew asked which is You know, what about the politics of this future relationship with afghanistan? And again, if you kind of consider this From an american perspective and i'll leave afghans to Speak for themselves I think there are needs now to be a lot of thinking about how to structure the future of this relationship And i'd give you four thoughts first of all is i think ambassador dobbins said and a number of people Have said earlier today and that is a first really important thing And that is the message that comes from afghanistan About the willingness of the afghans to have a relationship With the united states and also to recognize The sacrifices that americans have made and our international allies and partners and friends have made over these past 12 years In afghanistan right now if you speak on afghanistan around the country one of the things that you hear is You know, we'd like to have somebody say thank you to us For what's happened in afghanistan and i think for afghans that's something i hope they will put on Their checklist to make a contribution To this future relationship Second i go back to the question of the region i think for americans To continue to be interested in afghanistan it's to put it into the regional context This isn't only just about afghanistan that america has larger interests In central asia in pakistan in india and the whole south asian area and so that's important part of it as well Third i come to a point that often i think it's overlooked But ambassador dobbins made a very important point of it in his keynote address And that's to keep focused on the economic aspects of the future Of this relationship. So foreign direct investment You know these connections between central asian economies and south asian economies the interests perhaps of american companies In some of the important resources That are there to work with afghans to To bring to world markets and so the economic aspects of this whether it's the new silk road whether it's fdi Whether it's promoting afghan businesses Excuse me is something i think that americans will continue to be interested and be part of this future relationship and finally Something i don't think that Needs to be much detail, but that's to keep focused on counter extremism not just counter terrorism But counter extremism and afghanistan is still a very important part of that area as well So the region Economic issues counter extremism all these it seems to me under our foundations for a future relationship between afghanistan and the united states And so again, i think the organizers of this for this opportunity and i look forward to the rest of the panel and your comments and questions Thank you, uh claire Thank you, and i'd like to start also by thanking the Organizers for this for all that they do on on afghanistan and the region and for this timely discussion I've been asked to focus my remarks on governance and i'd like to look back over the last decade Look forward to the years ahead and and draw a few lessons Shortly after the tragedy of 9 11 a few miles from here Uh, it was a few days after 9 11 lakda brahimi convened a small group And he reflected that it was likely there would be an invasion The us would use military force It was likely that the then existing incumbent governor taliban would flee would collapse And he said the key question was going to be How do afghan individuals and groups agree on the rules of the game by which they will govern their society? And it seemed that that was the right question to ask then and perhaps it's the right question to ask today Now the bon agree process that that he facilitated Put this question at its heart and that process as we know had had many flaws But to the extent that it worked I think it was because it constructed a process for building a consensus between afghans on this question And there were successes and failures along the way and i'd like to highlight some of those successes In the spirit that we i think we focus and have done perhaps far too much in the in the last years on the negatives and the problems And not enough on the the real achievements that afghans themselves have made And at the heart of this and many would argue and have argued that in fact There was a political settlement and the political settlement was on the rules of the game embedded in the constitution And the laws that fall under that constitution And that was a result of a very inclusive process As many in this room will know of bringing together afghan citizens from around the country elected delegates To the first emergency law jigger to the second constitutional law jigger and commissions Many were prominent in working on in this room And while i think today that there's some legitimate debate about there might be some changes needed to that constitution by and large It remains a document that most afghans believe is the right framework for how their country should be governed And in fact many of the amendments i think people do seek are actually already in the constitution It's a matter of implementation of the constitution for example the constitution itself mandates election of mares at the city level that hasn't taken place yet, but it's in the constitution Second feature of the last decade That many reforms were completed and not only that that afghanistan had a considerable basis of governance capability in place When i arrived in the in the country in in the early days of 2002 I was astonished to find especially because i'd been reading in all the un and well bank documents There was sort of there was nothing there. There was no capacity Completely the reverse there were 240 000 civil servants in place across across the country at province and district level And yes, you know they'd endured by then already more than two decades of of war There were resource constraints and so on but the capacity was there Then over the last decade a number of reforms completed But i don't think the the issue is one of capacity or capability The what have been the successes these have been well documented So i won't go in in depth into them But there was the currency reform the reform of the finance ministry of telecoms at the health program The building of the national solidarity program with governance at the village level And one comment here governance isn't something abstract It's about how resources are channeled for the public purpose. So how is the health system built? How is the education system built those are the questions of governance And getting those policy frameworks right and i think there really is a good news story here And it's all credit to the afghans. I think sometimes You know international organizations have helped sometimes they've stood in the way But overall the story is one of success afghanistan has climbed I believe the fastest and furthest of any country in the world over the last decade on the human development index Which is a remarkable achievement and the polls where it's the asia foundation poll or new poll that was launched this week by atr 80 percent of the country believe that their government is in control in their area And the trust particularly in the a nsf remains extraordinarily high When we look at what what works and um, there's Not an area in area. You're going to be launching a study of what works So more detail on this will be coming in the coming months But I think even now we can look at some of the the attributes It was an even handedness in treatment of groups across the country Space for communities to be involved space for the private sector to be involved Governance is not about building the state from the top down only it's just as much about Creating the policy frameworks so that communities and private sector can be involved Having said that the the worst successes there were also many mistakes And we should be cognizant of those the worst some flaws And I think to some extent it was the Large measure one of the most tragic flaws was that the that's parts of the population began to lose trust In the process and from my perspective that happened around 2004 to five There are many reasons for that historians will be debated over time. My perspective is only one of those But internally certain segments of the population began to feel Right or wrong but feel that they were being treated unfairly. And so they began to look to other means To protect themselves or to realize their interests and externally some of the neighbors who'd signed the good neighborly declaration Back in shortly after the bond process the neighbors of afghanistan pledged Not to interfere in the politics and afghanistan pledged to support afghanistan's process They began to turn also to other avenues to protect their interests and then I think we saw an unraveling in in the trust between States between nations and between peoples So what does this tell us for looking forward? I agree with our keynote speaker that the and my other panelists that the Enormous achievements and especially and who would have thought that we'd be now heading to an election that looks to be on time Looks that the basic rules of the game are going to be respected But looking beyond that I think we know that democracy is not just about one day of elections But it's about the days and years in between elections It's not just about one leader It's about a team of leaders and as we look at those countries around the world that have transitioned successfully from conflict and from Difficult regimes to better governance They've all been delivered by a group of leaders. It was and as I had the pleasure to interview some of them around the world They've all said look history looks says it's about a great man Sometimes a great woman you normally a great man But it's always been about a team of people who work together across geographic boundaries across ethnic or religious boundaries So I think one of the key questions is going to be it can there be will there be an inclusive politics? Can there be a mandate for governing that all groups can agree upon and a leader or team of leaders that can deliver upon this? And can there be a national discussion or a national dialogue that citizens agree on? I know there's been talk of the need for a national dialogue, but my afghan friends I think have rightly pointed out. We're already having a national dialogue. We're having one every day um Then I couldn't couldn't agree more with with ambassador grossman and um Ambassador Dobbins that the region is is so important if there's to be peace and stability It's as much going to be about the regional politics of countries committing To non-interference to letting afghanistan letting the afghans have a chance at building The future that they have so so desperately have worked for and a need And so the question of how is the reality the rules of the game But the reality of non-interference in afghanistan To cut to come to be and at the heart of this is going to be the foreign policy of the next afghan administration towards its neighbors So I think together these elements the internal consensus building process and the regional process of agreement Probably the keys to peace and stability And perhaps then we need an adjustment in the way that we conceptualize the way we conceive of a peace process. It may not just be that Big deal the cutting of a deal and I would argue it isn't that that will lead to peace and stability in in afghanistan It will be those many wins and those careful processes Of building this consensus and trust between countries between peoples and within the country that will deliver the enduring peace and stability That the country so desperately needs and then agree very much that it's the rule also the rules in the of the game The governance of the economy that's going to be so important Understandably taxpayers in the u.s In europe are feeling maxed out on the contributions that they've made To the region an enormous amount of resources have been spent on the country Many of them used well not all of them used well, but I think going forward those resources are going to be at a lower level So the sooner that afghanistan can generate The resources the revenue to underwrite its own costs of stability the better And the shorter the bridge that will be needed from external commitments To sustain that so it is the question of you know The what the i of c in the well bank called the enabling environment But that's essentially the the trust of businesses in the rule of law So that and there's not a shortage of money They're enormously wealthy afghans and regional investors who would like to put money in but the question is can they trust In the rules of the game in the rule of law to do that And then what are going to be the rules for that govern the extractive sector in particular You know no minerals are not going to be a magic bullet But the oil and gas resources that are being discovered recently are quite immense and in you know It's not inconceivable that in 10 to 15 years those that can more than underwrite the costs of sustaining stability and services within the country So in in conclusion, I think you know, let's let's move from looking for the quick fixes in the magic bullets Understanding that peace and stability will governance will be at the heart of peace and stability And it's the many small wins rather than a victory or a deal that will deliver on that for afghans And and the question you know can can the politics deliver something that the middle the 90 percent of afghans who Believe in or more than 90 percent who believe in in law and order and want that future Can realize it Thank you. David Thank you. Thank you very much. Andrew. It's a great pleasure to be here and I'll join you and others in thanking us ip voa And asap in sponsoring this It's a little bit humbling to sit up here with the three people who I used to work for our ambassador grossman ambassador dobbins and steve hadley all had to suffer through my Having to have me as part of their teams when I first went out to afghanistan In 2002 to be deputy chief of mission and chargé at the embassy of their ambassador dobbins Told me afghanistan was going to be something very different than anything else. I ever done in my life He was 100 right. It continues to be so he also told me it was going to be different than it What anybody thought it was going to be and I think that was prescient as well I also need to thank ambassador grossman for mentioning The sacrifices that have been made during my time particularly the department of defense where I met so many americans Who had served in afghanistan at the behest of their country? Some of them believed in what they were doing others didn't but they all believed in their country And they all have done a great job of which their nation should be very proud And that's where I'd like to start. I've been asked to speak on the afghan security forces But I want to start off a little more broadly Earlier people talked about the fact that recent polling shows that two-thirds of the american people think that going into afghanistan was a mistake Interesting enough. I would say two-thirds of the afghan people think that the u.s Effort to help them has been a great success And that is something the american people should be proud of Something that's been lost and all the frothing about the bsa and president carzai saying this and back and forth like that Are the some are the fundamental successes and a lot of those have been laid out here By others who've been speaking and I want to stress particularly however on the military side Building the building of the afghan army the police and the afghan intelligence agencies has been a tremendous success An area in the world where building any institution Is a huge challenge making any progress is a huge challenge even if things are going well even if there's peace Even if there's sufficient resources Even if there's cooperation among regional countries Doing taking such a task would be hard Andrew wilder mentioned in his talks when he was in cobbled in 2002 and and alex ther were also I was on the other side of that debate. I was one who was saying progress was being made and we're going to make more It's interesting that 12 years later. Here we are Actually, I think taking many ways the same view that we've made a lot of progress The progress has been worth the investment that we've made and that's a very serious statement to make because it means it's worth the cost of thousands of american lives And to sit up for us to sit up here and say that Is saying something very important that I think is missed By the dialogue and the discourse and the american people Recently the diplomatic editor of the british broadcasting corporation john simpson has been covering afghanistan for over 30 years I went back to afghanistan and did a did a story and he looked and What he found he said was 180 degrees different from what people in washington and london think is the case That in fact afghanistan is succeeding afghans believe they're succeeding Ambassador grossman mentioned. Thank you as I was in afghanistan two months ago in december and met scores of afghan young people Under the age of 30 brilliant people who were there Preparing to live the rest of their lives in their country and they were universal in giving thanks to the united states and our international partners They recognize How lucky they are the benefits they've gotten from the sacrifices and they are prepared as ambassador grossman said To fight whether they're in the military and they're fighting for Their country or whether they're in the civil society or whether they're building Businesses that they're ready to sacrifice many of these people could be someplace else besides afghanistan But they're still there and they're there because of the sacrifices because of the effort because of what the united states And our allies and partners have put into that Uh, one of the topics I was asked to address was a bilateral security agreement and it is I want to take a moment here to pay tribute to those who worked on that and we have one of them here Well, we have several of them here in fact, but I want to single out particularly ambassador Hakeemi the afghan ambassador to the united states who's sitting here in the front row ambassador Hakeemi led the afghan team in negotiating the bsa and I would say those negotiations were very collegial Very professional and they resulted in what I think and I believe Everyone who's looked at the agreement including the afghan representatives of the afghan loya jerga Think is an agreement that is Both in the very best interest of the afghan people in government and in the united states And I so i want to thank you ambassador kimi. Please give ambassador kimi and his team a round of applause. Thank you I will also mention of course ambassador jim warlock who led the us team working course for ambassador grossman and for ambassador Dobbins who did a great job. So we have a great agreement in place What is the future with that agreement? It's going to be difficult afghanistan faces challenges and All of us are aware of those challenges But I think the odds are very much on the favor in favor of success with the bsa In place Will it be in place the afghan people have spoken the afghan presidential candidates a number of whom I spoke to in Kabul when I was there Are all in favor of signing the bsa. So I think it's a virtual certainty that the bsa will be signed The issue of whether president karzai signs that are not in my own view is irrelevant We need to make sure that we plan effectively for him not signing it and move forward I I truly hope that any of the costs and ambassador dobbins mentioned that might occur if there's delay are Mitigated very effectively by the great planning capacity that our military our state department and our systems agencies have I personally don't believe there's any need for any particular cost As long as we Keep our eye on the long game as there's a topic of this panel And turning to this topic of the afghan security forces Which I will not will not claim to be an expert. I have visited afghanistan about 20 or 30 times and lived there for a couple of years when It went andrew and alex and I were working on afghanistan in the earlier decade The afghan security forces had made done a tremendous job. A year ago We turned over lead security responsibility to the afghan security forces at that time many people outside of afghanistan In the us us government us government intelligence agencies, for example Predicted that that would not be a very great success that the afghans would lose significant amounts of territory District centers would be overrun some provincial Capitals might be threatened none of that happened The taliban did not gain any ground during the last 12 months In fact, they lost ground in some areas no district centers who were lost no provincial capitals were even threatened The taliban do maintain the power however to inflict serious damage on the afghan people and they've continued to do so Taliban attacks have killed Hundreds of thousands of afghan citizens primarily non-combatants They have also targeted Officials including some of the female police officers that you saw in the video earlier They've targeted foreigners. They've targeted afghan afghan officials throughout the country That is going to continue as long as the taliban continue until there's a peace agreement as ambassador grossman Repeated before however in order for the country to stay in one piece in order for the country to move forward And with the elections the way they are as ambassador dobbins described In order for the economy to continue to prosper as it has continued Despite predictions that it was going to crash. It hasn't crashed. It's continuing to move forward The basic security efforts that the afghan army Police and intelligence agencies are going to carry forward Needs to be successful And all the indications are that it will unfortunately Because of the continuing Ability the taliban to inflict violence. There will be many casualties The afghan police particularly but also the army have suffered high casualties and continue to do so Nevertheless in a story that is rarely understood or told here afghans continue to flock to those services Even though the danger is high People in afghanistan are willing to sign up to be in the police to be in the army to be in the intelligence services to serve their country They don't do so because they think afghanistan is going to fail. They do it because they think it's going to succeed They do so Not just because of the money they're paid although i do believe it's essential that we continue to fund those forces They do so out of a sense that afghanistan is their home and they're going to protect it The fact that we the united states particularly the u.s. Military But also our partners and allies have helped build institutions that allow the country and the people of that country to Move forward with what they want which in many cases is exactly What we in the united states and our partners want for the future of afghanistan Is a great tribute to those Afghans but also to those who have supported it And with that i'll close and turn it over to the next speaker Thank you david alex Thank you. I First of all want to start out again by thanking the organizers for this event the common thread that runs through the Images up there is that they are both institutions and individuals who have demonstrated just an incredible Amount of devotion to what we're here assembled to talk about today And that's incredibly important not only for afghanistan but for the united states that we have institutions That carry these burdens. I also really want to say how honored i am to to be sitting up here with everybody I have served in one way or another with everybody here In fact when i first went to pakistan in 1993 i was given the name andrew wilder To look up as one of the few people who really knew what was going on at the time And although there are more people now who know what's going on andrew remains about the best I also also want to acknowledge the incredible work of ambassadors Jawad and hakemi You have both been stalwarts for your nation and you sit here not only representing yourselves But the incredible work and and partnership that we've had with the afghan government and so it's great to see you And i also want to acknowledge three folks here Steve hadley Congratulations on taking over the board chairmanship I know that those of us who have worked here and love and are proud of this institution are thrilled with you stepping up to do that And jim dobbins is someone who? Has taught us all now Going on while i won't say how long but at least about 15 years About how we need to think about peace and security and the us involvement And so the fact that you have stepped back into this role There couldn't be a better person and a better perspective and i also want to acknowledge bill taylor who i saw walking in But bill is also i met bill first in afghanistan in 2002 and he remains to me one of the best examples of a diplomat And a boss that i have ever had When i traveled to afghanistan for the first time 21 years ago I would come to witness what i believe is one of the greatest foreign policy mistakes that our country has ever made And that was the abandonment of afghanistan And the gradual Or sometimes not gradual destruction to afghanistan Um its communities its infrastructure Um its relationships with its neighbors Uh that we are still climbing out of today I uh have over my career watched conflict unfold slowly and development unfold slowly Um and conflict is much more efficient Uh and it costs actually a lot less to perpetrate Um decades of understanding that were built up between communities in afghanistan For example in the 50 years preceding the soviet invasion and the gradual emergence of democratic politics We're undermined severely and rapidly by a few massacres That we are still talking about today electricity grids That took years and billions of dollars to build undermined by cutting down a few lines knocking down poles But paradoxically Conflict imposes a far far greater cost If we had not seen the lost 30 years of development in afghanistan imagine where we would be today Afghanistan's gross domestic product today stands at about 20 billion dollars And the incredible story that we've heard over and over again this morning is that it rose fourfold Just in the last nine years, which is an incredible Change So that's 15 billion dollars a year of economic activity and when you multiply that over decades and you think about the costs They are far far greater than any amount of investment That we have made on the civilian side So conflict costs much less to perpetrate and it has a far far greater cost to our own society And to afghanistan Even greater than those numbers though are the lost generations of afghans who have not had the opportunity to enjoy the basic Tenants of human dignity peace insecurity sufficient food access to education access to health care afghanistan Until a decade ago was basic basically accepted from the wave of globalization That has brought hundreds of millions of people from extreme poverty and into the global economy That has brought them to enjoy greater rights and the opportunities that democracy affords my current job As the head of policy planning and learning for usa it causes me to look across countries To see what's working and what's not working And i'm going to repeat a few of the things that you've already heard because i think that they are so Fundamentally important when we look at the losses that afghanistan has suffered over this period of time The first question that occurs to all of us that is incumbent that we answer and keep answering Is can we actually do something about it? Can the instruments that we have as a united states government as an international community as an afghan government? Can we actually change some of these conditions? Can we write some of these wrongs? Can the investments in a fragile place like afghanistan actually yield results? And the astonishing fact that we have come to learn in the last few years Is that not only were we able to move the needle in afghanistan collectively? But we have been able to fundamentally change a lot of the basic conditions in that country Ambassador dobbins spoke about the fact which i still find phenomenal That the human development report last year found that afghanistan has made more progress than any country on earth in the last decade Now granted that's going from some of the lowest baselines, but that progress was not inevitable I and many of you have heard this i love the story about what happened in public health in afghanistan because it's remarkable in a few ways Afghans did not have access to health care in 2002 six percent of afghans Could walk within an hour to basic health care and we're not talking about The mayo clinic here. We're talking about doctors and nurses Who with minimal training for things that are literally pennies a cure? Make the difference between life and death for a mother and child birth or a child under the age of five And by changing that rate of access from 60 from 6 percent to over 60 percent And by making a decision to invest through afghan government institutions Not by creating parallel systems, but working together with the afghan government to create a health network that could reach Over 60 percent of its people in a country where it's hard to reach people The change has been phenomenal Afghanistan's life expectancy went from 45 years to over 60 years in less than a decade That sort of progress is almost unprecedented But it's also explainable because of the steps that we took to choose basic services over expensive services to choose Going through the afghan government rather than setting up parallel systems To choose focusing on mothers and children where lives could be saved And that impact will resonate throughout afghanistan for years to come A similar story in education We made a decision to focus on basic education one that's often been criticized because you have to look at long-term education needs as well But the fact of the matter is that there were only 900 000 afghans almost all boys in school in 2002 And 8 million children today 40 percent of them are girls Literacy rates since 2005 have risen 50 percent for both boys and girls And again, these are long-term development investments. They're not things that change the economy overnight They're not things that change the political system overnight, but by having to by chosen By having chosen to invest in those things over the long term We have an afghanistan today in 2014 that is fundamentally changed The last story that I want to tell on on that note is about revenue because I think it's so important the afghan government Needs to be able to pay for itself Increasingly and the services that it delivers over time. It can't do it today But since 2004 afghan government revenue collection has gone up 1000 percent Afghanistan last year surpassed the two billion dollar mark in terms of revenues raised So it means that they are now raising more of their own revenues than the united states government is supplying in assistance Which is a fantastic watershed for them to have passed through All of these stories, however, are not just about those particular gains They are about something that I think is even more deeply important Which is about the development of afghan institutions afghanistan's future rests on afghan shoulders And we can and must and will continue to support afghanistan through this transitional process But it will be increasingly afghans It will be increasingly afghan revenues and increasingly afghan institutions that will carry this burden There's in fact no greater Example of this at the moment in my opinion than looking afghanistan's electoral institutions If you have followed afghan elections, uh since the first ones their electoral institutions and some of the great Things that ambassador dobbins laid out about the complaints and where they are and how many people have been registered for the elections These elections are being run by afghans almost entirely this time around And that is a great sign But afghanistan does remain among one of the poorest countries in the world And I think what everybody is trying to understand is what comes next First of all as many of our colleagues have set up here I can't emphasize the fundamental importance of a peaceful and successful transition this year All development progress in afghanistan fundamentally rests upon the success of this transition Second while there are many uncertainties facing afghanistan, there are a few things that we know First of all afghanistan has fun Fundamentally changed when you look at its youth its education its access to information mobile phones a taste of democracy Women in the economy women in the political arena I believe firmly having watched afghanistan so intensively over the last 20 years That those are all powerful genies that are going to be really really hard to put back into the bottle And like one somebody said on this panel, uh, I think it was ambassador grossman I believe that afghans will fight for what they have earned this decade Because they have to ultimately it is their lives not ours that hang in the balance And I think that the transition in many ways represents the afghans Truly taking responsibility for so many of these things And what I think you will see is that there are millions of afghans many of whom were not alive Most of whom in fact were not alive In 1991 when that last transition occurred Who see a different future for themselves for their country and for their region Another thing has changed That I believe that that we know that has been proven by all of these statistics that I and others have laid out Is that we know that we and the afghan government and afghan institutions Can successfully deliver in this environment I think there are a lot of concerns about whether our assistance is still going to be accountable Going forward whether we'll really be able to track the dollars and measure results and have impact But I think that that has already been demonstrated so much of the work that we do today is directly through afghan institutions Most of our international partners relied mostly on afghans for their staffing When we talk about the great agricultural programs that we have in helmand, that's not americans running around planting seeds It's afghans working for international and local organizations working with afghan farmers and the afghan government to make these changes happen And so I think we've already been able to deliver a critical evidence of success that can carry forward The final thing that we know And no one I think more than jim dobbins is responsible for us knowing this Is that rapid withdrawal of american support in this time will be one of the most critical factors In afghanistan's failure If afghanistan does not maintain some degree strong degree of international support Through this transitional period The increase in likelihood that afghanistan will become more fragile more conflict more unstable goes up dramatically so That leads me to my final point, which is that Amazingly I think in afghanistan and the incredible work that has been done To put in a strategic partnership agreement with afghanistan in the united states to negotiate the bsa And the incredible display of international commitment that was demonstrated In chicago and in tokyo in the summer and in istanbul in the summer Of 2012 when the entire world stood together after a decade of incredible investment and said We believe in afghanistan And we're going to keep going because this investment Is making a difference and it's that important to the world And we can't lose sight of the fact if we are taking the long view That we often get that wrong We often don't make that long-term commitment once the cameras turn away We often Wait for an election and then look elsewhere And it takes me back to 1991 in 1992 when america had one of its most amazing foreign policy victories Of the cold war and entering the post cold world world And instead of seizing that success and building on it not that we were solely responsible for anything in that period But we failed to act And that action has cost us dearly it has cost all of us dearly And so i believe that the investments that we have planned to continue Building afghanistan's economy to continue building its capacity of its people and to continue to set it on a path for its own self sustainability Is a critical opportunity That now more than ever we have to recommit to thank you Thank you all. Um, we're trying to pack a lot in today So we don't have much time for question and answer, but I think we have about 15 minutes Where we can take some questions from the audience We have speak Microphones that can be handed out if you identify yourself I would make a plea to keep your questions and comments short so that we have time for as many people to ask questions As possible, so please identify yourself. We'll start there Close to the microphone. I think Probably afghanistan is the only democracy Where there are no mainstream political parties Which are so crucial for any democracy So why it didn't happen when the world community led by the us was helping afghanistan In and in several sectors. Why didn't they help them to have mainstream political parties? Thank you. We'll take three or four questions and come back to the panel in the very back Jody vittory global witness. I had a question about the cut in humanitarian and afghan national security forces aid I know there's a lot of aid that's going to be moved around between accounts and so forth But what impact do you think that's going to have in practical terms and also as messaging? Thanks Thank you. Uh, now up in the front just to Keep you running back and forth a bit Right right down here Miki no gucci columbia university Um, alex I really appreciated your comments on development And I wonder if you could follow that thought through of the importance of development in afghanistan in terms of the regional context And the security considerations Okay, any time for one more in back there Yeah, right there. Yes, sir. Thank you Hi, this is gilinuri from voa I I had all your great insight on afghanistan My question will be for the panel whoever can Respond, uh, what's your input on peace building of forts in afghanistan? And how do you assist the current on and off peace talks? Do you think people favor these peace talks and what's the role of us in the peace talks and how They can continue their involvement in the talks. Thank you Okay, I think why don't we come back to the panel political parties peace talks, uh, the cuts in assistance and the development questions So alex should we start with you? Do you want to? Sure, um, the You know, I think that there are three major areas That are going to boost afghanistan in terms of employment generation in terms of income And regional development The first is agriculture Agriculture is enormously important to afghanistan. It is by far the greatest generator of employment It is fundamental In afghanistan, which has been traditionally one of the most food insecure countries in the world But afghanistan's agricultural potential is so untapped This is one of the reasons why us aid in the last couple of years has invested so heavily in that But part of afghanistan's agricultural potential Is also about trade and export And so when I think about the regional development context Um afghanistan as a trading partner For the region and as a place where the region can trade with each other Is fundamentally important And there have been some huge advances in this both in terms of infrastructure But also customs revenue when I talked about afghan government revenue It's actually customs which has been the fastest growing sector For the afghan government in terms of revenue We all know that the region that afghanistan sits in is one of the most economically Frustrated in the world the great dream of trade between south asia and central asia And then eventually through and up into europe and beyond Is growing but still remains stalled and the opportunity to open up those trade pathways will be I believe Fundamentally transformative for afghanistan And the region and the last thing that I wanted to say which is not related to the regional thing But it's so fundamental One of the things that us aid has been investing in so heavily is getting afghan women into the economy That is half of the people of afghanistan who have not been economic actors Women have great potential In afghanistan particularly also in terms of the agricultural economy and diversifying the agricultural economy And I think some of the greatest growth potential that afghanistan is going to see is actually by generating Meaningful economic opportunity for women in afghanistan I'll say a couple words about the cuts in assistance military and civilian Those cuts in assistance and people here have used euphemisms cost and risk Let me put a face on what we say cost and risk Though those cuts in assistance mean that more people are going to die and particularly more afghans uh, I was in afghanistan a short while ago and I Visited a hospital and saw a two-year-old whose foot had a two-year-old girl Who's same age as my two-year-old grandson? Here in the u.s. Her foot had been blown off by an ied her parents Were despairing about her future because a future of a handicapped person afghanistan is difficult There will be more children's feet blown off. There will be more afghan Policemen and soldiers killed because of those cuts in assistance when we do our assistance less effectively That makes the ability of the people we are assisting more susceptible to death to injury It means more people on the civilian side as afghan as alex theorist pointed out were able to deliver assistance more More effectively the achievements and public health that alex talked about are tremendous Going from six to 60 percent of people who have who are within an hour of health care is a tremendous accomplishment But to continue that kind of improvement needs the continued resources That the u at the u.s. And other countries have pledged in afghanistan. So these cuts that bring our ability to Carry out the pledges. We've already made in the serious question Bring our ability to support the afghan security forces to be effective Are leading to To real hardship pain suffering and death right now clear So one comment on the question of cuts and assistance I think it's both the question of the reality of what money can buy as mr. Sadini has Explained and it's also the question of the message of commitment That was sending to the afghans as I think we've all discussed We're asking the afghans have asked and we are asking the afghans to assume an enormous burden Of responsibility for the sovereignty of their own country But the question is whether their partners are going to continue to send the message of commitment and confidence On the question of the regional economic cooperation You know the secretary clinton announced the new silk road secretary kelly carry has endorsed it and has created a new office to follow this up And I think it's an incredibly important initiative as Europe after world war two Found a way for the countries within europe to cooperate with each other But the heart of that was cooperation of over coal and steel between france and germany And I think one of the questions for the central south asia region is what is their equivalent of the coal and steel And one of them as alex has explained is is trade and transportation Which will be critical getting goods essentially from china to go through to europe But there are also others and one other to highlight. I think is is the question of energy and power There were meetings at the world economic forum at davos this year where regional political and business leaders came together And what they got really excited about Was when they discovered that the some of the central asian republics are producing power and can sell it for somewhere between two And six cents a kilowatt hour But india and pakistan are producing or buying for 13 to 16 cents a kilowatt hour and that differential presents enormous opportunity for trade So it's an energy and power or another and then there are others that I think increasingly are being discovered But in that search for regional cooperation is what will help create the incentives for for peace and stability Well, thank you very much Let me see if I could just address the question of the peace process Such as it is and you know, I talked about this a little bit before Before the session I'd make four points if I could one is I think it's really important to start as David said he talked in his intervention To start and remember that you're fighting here these taliban who continue to attack and attack and attack As david said mostly non-combatants, but also terrible attacks on afghan national security forces and a continued effort to Kill and maim american forces and international forces as well So this is an enemy that is still out there fighting and I think any any any any consideration of peace process It's got to kind of begin with the question of whether they are interested In doing some kind of arrangement and making reconciliation work with the people of afghanistan Secondly, I think it's also worth saying out loud That I can understand and everyone should understand, you know why afghans And especially I think afghan women or young people or entrepreneurs I don't worry about this peace process Because they worry that people are going to make decisions above their heads or over them To have a reconciliation process, which might chip away At some of the important progress that's made over the last 12 or 13 years And that's why it's extremely important It seems to me that this be a conversation among afghans about what they want in terms of reconciliation If I could put a parentheses here, I think as Alex said and also claire Noted it's extremely important that women make their progress inside of this Increasingly important afghan economy because it seems to me one of the natural barriers Toward going backwards In a reconciliation process is to have powerful women who have powerful economic interests In afghanistan so they can speak for themselves about what their future Will be like and then fourth point just to keep coming back and back and back To the point about what is the role for the international community here and particularly for the united states And that is a clear one and that is to open the door Maybe make it possible for afghans to talk to other afghans about the future of afghanistan Reconciliation is not about the united states or the international community making some arrangement On behalf of the afghan people it's about afghans Make an arrangement that they wish to see and since you have to make your own decision But it does strike me as right that this is a conflict that isn't going to end militarily There'll be some political end to this That reconciliation there for among afghans is important. Secondly, as I said in my intervention It's the reason to be in favor of a signed bsa Reconciliation is a reason to be in favor of american and international forces in afghanistan after january 1 2015 because the taliban is watching what it is that we're going to do And they're not going to arrive at this voluntarily. There still has to be some effort made To fight this terrorist group and finally It's the question as I said of what of the end conditions, you know to make sure that There is an a break with al qaeda that there is Um An ending of this violence against the afghan people and also that there is A reconciliation that supports the kinds of governance and constitution and effort that our friends here we're talking about And especially protects the role of women and society. So I think there's a role for this Huge number of questions obviously, but the very important thing I think it is for foreign voices to say there's like so much of what we said on this panel this morning This is an afghan responsibility that we have the privilege to support And let me briefly just try to tackle the political party question because I think it's an excellent question and a very important one Certainly in the future if I think parliamentary Democracy is going to function effectively in afghanistan You do need at some point to get political parties stronger and Operating more effectively in terms of disaggregating and organizing interests to make parliament function I think the original sin from my perspective goes back to 2004 when the voting system that was selected Not to go too much into the weeds, but the single non transferable vote One of our first the one of the first a reu publications back there was on the voting system It's highly critical about choosing that voting system precisely Because it works against the interests of political parties and works in the interests of independent candidates I think that was actually quite a deliberate choice If you want to keep the executive strong and powerful and parliament weak and ineffective The single non transferable voting system is actually a pretty effective way of doing that I think that's now more widely recognized But of course the dilemma is once people get elected in the sn tv votes They're the ones in power and actually have an incentive maybe to preserve that system Which is why now that it's a recognized problem. It's actually quite difficult to reverse But I do think it's an area where there does need to be more awareness raising And political parties need to get a bit more organized themselves and improve their own lobbying efforts to get that Voting system changed in future election laws Unfortunately, we have run out of time and I apologize. We don't have more time for this session We're going to have a coffee break But I just wanted to end again by thanking everyone in our panelists in particular I also did want to also recognize Ambassador Jawad and Ambassador Hakimi Very ably represented Afghanistan In washington over the years at a very critical time in afghanistan's history But also ambassador dobens and the panelists. Thank you very much. I think it was a good session I think the the challenge is i'm not arguing. Let's not be polyannish But let's also get have a realistic and balanced assessment of what's been achieved as well as the real challenges and threats moving forward because if we only focus on The you know failure and have a narrative of defeat That I think really fuels the sentiment that we should give up and leave and as alex pointed out We paid a very heavy price when we did that 20 years ago. That's not repeat that mistake. Thank you very much Um, I'm david ensor the director of the voice of america and I'll be moderating the second panel Which will be a little bit looser Because I'm a tv guy, so I like to walk around with a microphone and things like that We have a very distinguished panel. I'll introduce them in a minute But I wanted to say a couple of things and I also want to show you a bit of videotape because again being a television person I can't resist doing that First of all, um, I spent uh, and really why i'm here I spent 17 months in 2010 and 11 Serving at the united states embassy in cobble as the director of communications and public diplomacy And so like many others in the room, um, I fell in love with afghanistan and with the afghan people But there were I want to remark on three things that I noticed in in the in the area of the afghan media and that struck me and perhaps Will help us Get started here The first thing which led me in the end of the job. I have now at voa Was watching television and seeing that That there was a program on the evening news on The radio television afghanistan rta Who's very able leader is with us today mr. Anzor. Thank you very much for coming Uh, but in partnership with rta a voice of america has an an hour in darian poshto of news every evening And uh, what struck me first was that it was a very well put together program, but secondly all my afghan friends watch it The the effectiveness of that Conversation and that reliable news made quite an impression on me The second thing and I think practically everyone in the room If you follow afghanistan or afghan media issues at all, uh, was struck had been struck by this at one time or another Is the extraordinary Adventure called tolo tv The extraordinary impact enthusiasm energy That that particular private company run by sad musaini and his brothers Has brought to the afghan media scene And more about that in a minute, but they're not the only ones as ambassador dobbins mentioned There are something like 75 television stations and 175 radio stations. There's an enormously Um, uh vigorous varied conversation going on on the airwaves, uh in afghanistan among afghans Tollo tv may be the largest, but it's only one of many and so that's a very Uh, uh notable Uh piece of the media landscape The third thing is that as as a an embassy official, I went around the country and I often visited Little tiny fm stations In villages and small towns around afghanistan and there are a lot of them And you go into a perhaps it's a one room Uh fm station somewhere in a small town that doesn't have too much going for it and you find um young people at the microphone Finding some way to get a little music on with some kind of a basic tape recorder Uh and in many cases these stations were Uh started by locals with help from NGOs prominently By internews, which is represented by uh some uh some senior people from internews here today and thank you for coming Um and many of these stations while they run some local content, maybe have a local talk show Run some music Um also run salam watandaire, which is the flagship show of the of of of that whole network of community radio stations So again another green shoot and a strong one an important one diverse varied Source of strength for afghanistan going forward So we're here in this panel to discuss what I frankly think is one of the most important Advances over the last 12 years We've heard of many others from the previous panel But um obviously i'm a little biased because I spent uh, you know nearly 30 years in in the business of business of journalism And i'm still sort of in it But freedom of speech if you don't have that You ain't got much You have to have a a a democracy which afghanistan seeks to be Really has to have um a sense that people may say what they think And that the media maybe there are some limits, but fundamentally Can do so as well And it's that subject that I'd like to to get us to talk about and and we want to talk about what How can we support that the media sector in afghanistan going forward? There are a lot of different aspects to this and we i'll introduce our panel in a minute But before I do that Um it isn't just about journalists and journalism Important though that is and well represented though that sector is on the panel here The media is much more than just Good newscasts It's entertainment. It's it's informing. It's Storytelling and by the way afghans are some of the best storytellers i've ever met So in that spirit I think that the effort that we've seen over the last 12 years by many different westerners Uh different Countries different support systems has been much broader than just trying to provide freedom of speech and the news Though that is for me job one and to allow the afghans to find to learn how to do that as they so much have But it's also Kind of helping the the media to become A full part of the country's Culture and and it's uh and its strength So in that spirit, I wanted to show a seven minute clip from a wonderful new documentary produced by young australian filmmaker eva Eva I have not got her name in front of me Eva orner right and so this some of you may have seen this but To sort of broaden the discussion before we even get started here's seven minutes of the network by eva orner Which is a documentary focused basically on tolo television But also on some of the broader issues of journalism Um of women and other topics that are important about afghanistan So here's a taste and this seven minutes focuses on a particular television show on tolo tv Can we roll the film please? Eagle four is a drama series for afghanistan. It was probably one of the highest budget Drama series made here and and very ambitious Oh Our instructions from sad Was that this was needed to be made to an international level. This is going to lift the bar and production values in afghanistan It was just such a huge production We had 78 locations. It was shooting on the street to carval which had problems at its own We were filming this very large sequence outside the ministry of agriculture We had a guy wearing a suicide bomber vest The eagle four police were chasing the bad guy and then a police car turns up and he's kind of trapped Every shot kept getting faster and faster and the last take we honestly thought our actor was dead. It was frightening 45 minutes later our um head of security said um That the ministry of agriculture want to shut down your shoot and they want you to delete everything that you shot today Uh, so we literally packed up our entire shoot in five minutes and Then look When we were doing eagle four, we needed someone who could do bullet wounds and scarves and burns and you know You name it and I sat down with crema and I asked her What can you do and we had a chat about it and then she said she would practice I What's amazing about crema is that I think out of any local staff member It is only korema who could walk straight from a set in afghanistan To a set in in western country and do her job without any problems. She is just You know What we were trying to do with that show was to lift the profile of the afghan security forces Um, one of the biggest fears around transition in this country is that once we pull out the security forces He won't be able to manage the situation and won't be able to guarantee people's safety They need to know that once the international forces go that their security forces are adequate enough to look after them The idea of the show is to promote a police force with integrity and creating heroes and that You know that you can trust the police that are around you Throughout nine provinces 76 percent of respondents said that their Attitude towards the police had changed for the better after watching the show There was a noticeable spike in recruitment during the run of the show So in terms of themes and messaging it was highly successful as well For things to change People are gonna have to know that the police are out there working for them Let me uh, I'd also like to just read a quote here before I introduce the panel This is a letter from Kabul by Doran Townsend. I don't know. Doran. Are you here by any chance? You are excellent Well, I'm gonna quote you Uh, this is in foreign affairs, but relevant to this Doran wrote that uh, and he worked for unama in Kabul When western legal technicians are asked about these programs They typically dismiss dismiss them as peripheral and propagandistic a side show to the serious business of institutional state building Yet audience surveys suggest that the shows have made a powerful impression Comparing their own police lawyers and judges to a more to more virtuous ones on fictional television. He didn't use the word fictional Viewers have expressed hopes for a cleaner and more efficient justice system with a new sense of urgency And he mentions another show crime scenes and says that producers receive hundreds of phone calls asking the authorities to Look into the violations highlighted in the shows So, uh, I just wanted before we get into this and now we will To to broaden it slightly What what do we talk about when we talk about the afghan media? so We have a very a very strong panel to talk about this with us On my left immediate left peter bergen national Director of the national security program at the new american foundation author of manhunt the longest war The osama bin laden that I knew a cnn analyst and I should in full disclosure a personal friend We worked together at cnn and have been friends for decades And another member of of of the kind of the tribe that believes in afghanistan here in the united states next to him Najib Sharifi Who's director of the afghan journalist safety committee and afghan voices? In his own right a distinguished afghan journalist And afghan patriot He's worked for the washington post the new york times the bbc cnn and npr So he also understands the western media and its oddities and vagaries and strengths and weaknesses. I think To his left danish danish karakal the director the founder Of the pashwak afghan news One of the sort of bedrock afghan media institutions That has been founded in the last 12 years A source of strength for so many other media organizations You can't really have good radio and television stations if you don't have a good wire service or two Those of us in radio and tv know that only too well. We simply can't cover everything What danish and his team do is they try to cover everything and of course that's impossible But it's amazing how much they do and the quality of the work so He's also the 2008 winner of the international press freedom award from the committee to protect journalists another Great afghan patriot on our panel and on the To our on the far end From the united kingdom James dean who is director of policy and learning at d at bbc media action So for v away, he represents the competition in a way The friendly competition But james had worked with some others on probably the best Uh survey and study on the state of the afghan media done not too long ago and he has some Interesting findings from that and some strong views about what we need to do Going forward those of us who care about this issue so let me start by um Let me start by with you danish if i may and let me ask you How strong is the afghan media at this point and how worried are you about its future? Thank you Thanks from wise of america and usip for organizing this such important event um, you know The first session and the the remark in the beginning remark was you know, so impressive for us You know, I I really Came uh From from the negative perspective from afghanistan, but which I Hear some positive thing, you know the the the good support of American people, you know that the government of USA, you know, I'm so happy to we believe we are not alone. We have Support which is very good. I I want to start From one of the recent example, I want to share the one story Which I recently meet In Kabul one of the the the barber In his barber shop and he told me He bought You know a land to build house for his family by six thousand dollars And now after those two three month Fighting on base say on you know, he he sell that he sold that by four thousand dollars he believe if The afghan government not signed the base say if we didn't have Acceptable election not he has not he is not sure to it will be a hundred percent fear in free election But he says that if we have not have an acceptable election It is it is mean his future will be dangerous. He want to keep those four hundred thousand dollars four hundred four Thousand dollar, you know how to Transfer his family to one side of the Afghanistan to the other and how feed his children It is mean that our future in afghan media future in our country future is defined on Signing in base and also the acceptable election if we both didn't have that It is mean our our future will be dangerous our We I will be worried afghan journalists will be worried and our people will be worried These two things are very important and it is like a bridge for our past We really achieve in last 12 years A good achievement in afghan media if we compare that during taliban time As before, you know, I heard that during taliban time there was not tv channel There was just taliban radio station by any radio sharia But now half we have a thousand media outlet Now our question is that How we keep that how we running that how you know, um, and I hope if The base is signing if we have a good election if we pass this bridge I think our future will be very good And I think we will have a good success in our country Najib same question how strong is the afghan media? How important it is it to the country and how worried are you about its future? Um, well, it's very strong if we look at the fact that Today's afghan media is only the product of the last 10 years before that we literally have Media in the country as tarnish Rightly outlined we only had One radio during this the taliban and two papers which were solely being used for the propaganda purposes of the government um in terms of highlighting priorities for the central government in terms of promoting human rights Promoting women's rights in terms of holding the politicians accountable. It's very strong Again, we have to look at the afghan media in the backdrop of what we had before the 2001 And it's extremely important for that for afghanistan because afghanistan has recently started on the path of democracy and in the absence of a strong and vibrant Media we will not be able to have much success in the endeavor of Building democracy in the country But it's got its own weaknesses and it's imaginable one of the Important weaknesses of the afghan government is Uh mainly on the part of the media owners is lack of a strategic vision towards their media outlets and this itself will lead to the bankruptcy bankruptcy of a lot of Or a significant number of media outlets After the drawdown of The international forces afghanistan it's because you know Proportionately there will be reduction in the amount of aid in afghanistan a lot of afghan media A major source of funding for them is the international media. Well, that's what that's what I want to get to I mean, maybe I'll try it with you, james How worried are you about looking forward about the future of the afghan media and Do you have any sense of how many stations may close if they lose foreign support? First of all, let's acknowledge the success. I mean, let's just I mean everyone has but I think it is an extraordinary achievement Of what is which is very much down to the afghan people about my colleagues on the on the panel here others in the audience Um, there's an astonishing achievement from there is that there is a tradition of afghan journalism that goes back to 1911, um, but there was nothing in 2001 10 000 people are now employed in the sector The spectrum with problems over success the spectrum is saturated with a number of radio station radio stations would exist The number of television stations would exist and this is very much down to the energy and entrepreneurialism and creativity and courage of people of People like najibe and danish and others So There is a big success story and a big success story has also been built on external support Um external support by people like internews by ourselves by people like yourself david Um, uh, it's it really depended upon that in quite a significant way as well But can I had a coda before your butt? It's it's also do and some to a person who doesn't always get His his credit for this. It's also due to president hamid karzai Who's opened up a space and kept a space open more or less For um for for free discussion and many voices with the most liberal licensing for example, um, Regulatory system in the entire region. Um, it is quite extraordinary But how worried am I? Yeah, really worried. Um, this is built on, um, uh, an awful lot of external support Um, that external support does appear to be drying up The domestic advertising market by most estimates is at the top in something like 30 million dollars a year Probably more likely 20 million dollars per year It's nothing like enough to sustain the scale of a media that exists in the country And so only two things are likely to happen if the support does continue to dry up in the way It appears to be doing one The media will consolidate and shrink perhaps a little bit about needs to happen. Anyway, and the best will survive But it will start also to be fall into the hands of those who are prepared to pay for it And those who are prepared to pay for it And it's difficult to verify the real evidence and numbers around this But certainly the biggest supporter to the media in afghanistan From external sources aside from private finance has been the u.s But for many and many consider a second biggest support of the media in afghanistan is iran And we are beginning to see and this is something we we mapped and charted in the report We did the media of afghanistan the challenges of transition which we published in 2012 We are beginning to see a co-option a growing co-option of media by factional forces by warlords And that's the worry is the worry is that if it isn't managed in an intelligent constructive way That there is this astonishing legacy that has been built But is that legacy going to be secured? And there are real threats to that legacy at the moment. Um, and Yeah, we're worried either On the the neighbors iran pakistan others what sort of role? Uh, are they playing now in the afghan media space and what are your thoughts about that going forward? Well, you know, I think it's interesting to compare pakistan and afghanistan the media environment But just as hamid kawzai has been very liberal, uh, with um, granting licenses in afghanistan general masharaf One of the the good things he did was uh, really create this space for free press in pakistan um, but there was an interesting kind of Comparison between pakistan and afghanistan that really is to redounce the afghanistan's benefit Which is you know the freedom of press in afghanistan is i think in some ways better than it is in pakistan And i'll give you a couple of examples It would be inconceivable for the afghan government to expel a new york times journalist Who'd been in the country for six years and was a leading journalist for the times And that's what happened to pakistan, you know to deklin walsh in pakistan Read of the recently And as a western journalist trying to cover pakistan when you get a visa Your visa is for l'hor islamabad and karachi You know when carlotta gul went to quetta. She was beaten up Um, i've had another friends of mine who've gone to inter blutistan I mean, it's basically you cannot report on very large chunks of the country You can't really report in poshawa and you can't really report in the tribal region So contrast all that with where it with afghanistan where Independent journalists can go where they want And one final point which also redounds the afghanistan's benefit pakistan I think a committee to predict journalists routinely finds it to be If not the most dangerous country in the world for journalists probably the second most dangerous after syria So I think the you know, there's some good things going on in pakistan and the media, but afghan the situation afghanistan is is it looks a lot better But you talked james about Iranian money coming in pakistani money coming in Can you quantify that at all? I don't think we can quantify it. I don't think we know. I don't think it's researched well enough And I think we have to be careful about just What the effects of that are But I there is evidence that the channels that that money is supporting are beginning are getting quite a lot of money first of all, but they're also In the even since we published a report 18 months ago A sense that actually those channels are also getting more audience and a bit more traction with the population and that although this hasn't been a polarized Media environment and we heard this morning a little bit about how a lot of the coverage around the elections wasn't Particularly polarized There are undoubtedly concerns around where the future of this is going to be A lot of my work is not just on afghanistan, but on fragile states in general Pragile states tend to be Fractured states and we are seeing an increasingly Fragmented and fractured media In afghanistan and the most fraction part of that media are arguably getting quite significant injections of funding at the moment It's the last thing in one level for a state that is trying to Refind itself chart its own future its own destiny its own national identity It it it it's not necessarily a useful way of going as if the media becomes ever more Pragile and fractured in the way that it is does seem to be going at the moment Now jeep how solid do you think is the support? That you expect to see After the election in terms of governmental support for the concept of a free media I know there was discussion recently about a new media law Perhaps you could just give us a word or two on that and what your concerns may be about freedom of the press in afghanistan Well, again when we compared to the regional countries afghanistan has had a remarkable Has managed to create a remarkable space for freedom of media in um for the media and This is because we should you know Give credit to president karza, you know for for allowing this and for living it to flourish But recently we have been noticing Precious from the government. Well, this does not necessarily mean this mainly come from the ministry of information and culture and their faulty Way of solving the each the problems that the afghan media is Undergoing well professionalism it lack of professionalism is a problem and the way that the ministry of information and culture cease to resolve the problems to pressure the media and What the ministry did a couple of months ago was to uh, it A proposed amendment of three articles of the media law, which further restricted the space for media workers and gave sole authority to the hands of the ministry of information culture to punish and try media workers who are seen as violators of media law or violators of The profession I must say that this is not systematic attempts of the government to Pressure the media But there are a lot of individuals in the afghan government who Are not very who cannot tolerate the freedom That the afghan media is enjoying Well in terms of the future of After this government the future government it depends on who gets elected, but So far we see that top Candidates they they are all media friendly And they all believe in the concepts of freedom of expression and expansion of media as the A constructive component for State building and for For strengthening democracy in afghanistan Forgive me if I put you on the spot here, but that's the nature of a discussion like this Let me ask you. Do you think pashwalk can survive? Will pashwalk have funding in three four five years time? Because in a way you're an example an important one You know, you're the canary in the in the coal mine. Will you survive? Do you think three four five years from now? Um in last ten years we did hard work to to Sustainable pashwalk by new subscription by advertisement But we didn't find enough money to run news agency and you know the news agency business, you know It is need some some some support but Based on our learning, you know in last ten years um We try to to To focus on a new stream of revenue You know to to to sustainable pashwalk like I will I will tell you in our coming In 2014 in 15 in our business plan We are focusing on Some new product like election and mining website We want to introduce A new a new subscription package for the mining company for the candidate in politician, which is help us We already You know implemented that Beside that We want to um focus on our international income revenue, which is uh also Started and it is good. We want to introduce fast footage service, which is It is already, you know started it is help us We want to expand our sms service because As before, you know that around 16 million afghan have access to to mobile and now it is help us a lot to To we focus on that like introduce media release service To build a mobile application We are working on that We can say we know that after 2014 or 2014 there will be less money But if we focus on those things, I think we will sustainable pashwalk without You know international donor money thinking like a businessman. Good to hear Peter Back when they were in power the taliban used to tear up videotapes. They didn't allow much media of any variety Do you think that their view on media has changed out of power? It just seems to me that in some ways they're quite sophisticated practitioners of modern media now their internet efforts are Impressive in some way. Yeah. No, I mean, I totally agree with that You know when I was reporting in afghanistan when the taliban were in power And as everybody on the panel noted there was just radio chariot and that was that and and there was also the bbc had a Correspondent the ap and an alder zero But it was enormously difficult to get a visa to go as a journalist and if you once you got in they would charge you huge amounts of money to stay at the hotel intercom where I was the only guest and And so, you know, they made it very very difficult and of course television was banned and Um So they have changed. I mean, they've changed completely. I mean, obviously they have a very active spokesman who subscribes to The afpack channel that I edit they You know, they are content that they've they've really learned I think from al-qaeda in a sense About having an aggressive media Campaign now how persuasive is it? You know, I I leave that to my afghan colleagues but certainly they are And and and they're making news interestingly, uh, I'll give you an example Bo burgdahl who is the u.s. Um Army sergeant who's been taken hostage by the akhani network There was some discussion and a piece in the washington post saying That the u.s. Was open to renegotiating the release of five leading taliban prisoners from guantanamo And the taliban about two days after this report came out very quickly said hey, we're not negotiating this issue at all right now So they are savvy about how to work in a kind of global media environment I guess the question is whether they are Going to mature to the level and if they become more influential in a post 14 afghanistan If they hold a bit of territory or if they decide to put if there are candidates that are sympathetic to the taliban that run elections And win a seat or two if they're going to be part of the game or if they're going to be fighting Which I guess they are in some places You know If they might somehow get engaged in governing yeah, could they possibly tolerate other voices Can they can they mature to the level where they allow other people to speak as well as well as them? In a in a more in a more serious afghanistan than the one they ran previously I mean, I think the short answer to that is probably not You know, I mean there's a lot of wishful thinking that has gone on about the taliban Um, you can imagine that elements of it like hasby islami might be you know, they're in the political process But they're a relatively small part of the Of the equation now. I think that the single biggest wild card here is will the pakistanis Do a serious military? Uh operation in north was iristan and I think for the first time In a long time that may well happen I mean, I think that The number of people who have been killed by the taliban in pakistan has reached a point where The Nawaz Sharif government has really said we are serious And I think that could change a lot for the taliban if they no longer had their critical safe haven It won't completely obviously they exist in afghanistan to some degree Uh, but I think the pakistani see that we the united states and nato is leaving in some shape or form in 2014 And that the window is closing to do this operation Um, and um, so, you know that that changes a lot of things for the taliban Did um before we get to your questions in the panel. I'm going to ask one more to james What do you think james needs to happen going forward in terms of support for the afghan media I think the biggest single thing is a clear strategy Um, there isn't a strategy in this area when we launched our report In 2012 and in lots of conversations since last year Discussing this with many ambassadors with many political leaders with many media leaders and many others They all said the same thing and that is that We've got strategies for just about everything around the transition for security for the economy for the health service Everything you can think of we've got Places and spaces where people meet and discuss and work out what the best way of supporting the future of afghanistan is Except the media There is no obvious place or space Within the country where a clear strategic focus can be applied On how best to secure the future legacy of what has been taken quite a lot of money to to to build up And I do find that quite remarkable and staggering. Um, and even now after After quite a lot of time, but it's not clear where that space of place Actually is and that's what makes us worried. Um, it's because I don't think this is actually principally just an issue of lots of money I think it's an issue of really smart intelligent Decision-making and where does support need to be to be invested in and and how can People like my colleagues on the panel be best supported in the future I I personally don't think the media of afghanistan is sustainable in a short term But the role it's playing in the future of that society is absolutely fundamental I but lots of discussions at the bottom process and everything else are obviously focused in terms of political leadership What the political settlements going to be what the results of the elections are going to be But ultimately the future of afghanistan is going to be shaped by its people And it really does need a platform for public debate We talked a lot about it this morning about what the nature of a national dialogue Would be in in in afghanistan Well, where is that platform what what is the foundation Around upon which the people of afghanistan are going to be engaged in but often Will be a difficult dialogue and debate to chart their own future destiny And I find that very odd That this element of a transition which I would argue is perhaps one of the most fundamental components of any kind of future success for the country is is just Rather absent from from a planning and discussion Which I think is fragmented across lots of donor agencies fragmented across that government Fragmented within the media system So if I had to say one thing that needed to happen, we need to get serious Not just about money, but with strategy and clarity and determination and insistence on this stuff is important It's not peripheral And and I don't see that happening in a moment I'm not a disinterested party. I would just endorse what james said with As much strength as I can as I can offer There's a reason why the first amendment Is freedom of speech in the u.s constitution you can't have A democracy that works with any kind of Efficiency or effectiveness if the citizens don't know very much And so I very much hope that I very much endorse what you're saying james Let let us now let us open up to to questions and and points from the from the panel I mean from the audience. Uh, can you briefly can you be brief? Can you identify yourself at the very start of when you start talking and Mostly questions, please not speeches, but I wouldn't mind a few points if people want to make them Lady there and Hi, my name. My name is jean mckenzie from global post With just a quick question about the elections of Media and elections specifically. Um, have we seen an activation of political figures? Uh In the media such as I remember dostum had aina tv mohakek at a television station Rabbani before his assassination had a television station. Are we seeing Political candidates and political figures moving into the media sphere Please um, thank you gene. Um, well Um, obviously Those politicians who have their own media outlets. Um, um, they are going to cover electoral issues in a biased way Which means that they would be more favoritism towards the media station that The candidate owns but the good news is that A lot of the media state Media outlets that are either owned by certain individuals certain politicians or that are Uh, sponsoring or Or that are That are serving the interests of the neighbor neighboring countries They don't Carry much significance because they don't have a lot of audiences I heard that the recent survey shows that total Tolo, which is the most popular tv station in afghanistan has got 60 of the audiences. So Imagine a country where we have around 75 TV stations one station Has got Around 60 of the audience. So that's significant And uh, well coming to the elections. I think the recent coverage of the media of the elections Proof that afghan media has gone Incredibly far in terms of professionalism in terms of Setting the agenda for the debates because a couple of um Political shows that we had For the candidates they prove that afghan media has gone very far in terms of professionalism Gentlemen up there and And sort of yeah Thank you My name is muhammed ahmadi for voice of america afghanistan service. I have one question put in three parts how much the focus on Investigative journalism in afghanistan And the second part is what are the main challenges if The media conducts such journalism and the third part and last is that Is there any market for that in terms of the audience's test? Thank you. Who would like to After um, you know in last 12 year experience now Afghan media is focused on investigative reporting which if you hear recently um We created um Consortium by name afghan media consortium, uh, you know, hashtesaw, pashua, kilid and sabbat together And we start investigative reporting in on corruption and um, also in human right Which is each month we produce two investigative reporting One on human right in one and corruption and it is really affected Like we can say that for some of those, um, when we release the story, you know, it was really have a good impact and our president president karzai pick up two case and he You know, uh Rana, um, he he give a speech for that bi-weekly radio, uh, you know in each Bi-weekly a speech regarding that our investigative report like now We have some difficulty But if we work together, we believe the future of investigative reporting will be better and I hope it will Have a good change. Yeah, go ahead. Thank you, David Well, there's huge appetite for investigative journalism among the audiences in afghanistan, but unfortunately we have not had much success in terms of producing In this investigative journalism content. Well, the prime reason behind our failure has been Our the afghanis that afghan journalists problem with access to information There's huge resistance on the part of the afghan government and providing afghan media workers with information We still don't have access to information law in afghanistan and the second problem has been The environment for safety of media workers is not that still that good, you know, there's a still a lot of Intimidation going on particularly when it when cases become personal and then Those who are covered will go after the media workers and start intimidating and attacking We've had examples of this in the past and the third problem has been lack of sufficient education in the area of investigative and journalism in among Afghan media workers, which is a pity because In afghanistan, which which corruption makes a huge problem. There's a huge need for Investigative journalism, you know that segues to another subject. Let me ask you about this james And it's sort of our business in a way and also the business of mr. Anzor here, which is state broadcasting are you, you know government broadcasting RTA is moving to more and more of a public broadcasting model And changing the way they think about their work I guess the question for you and I and for maybe others in the room here is What's the appropriate role for the bbc and voa and other international broadcasters that also broadcast into afghanistan? Is there a course correction we should make as things change in 14? I'm thinking about this because when najib talks about investigative journalism One of the things we've done at voa recently is appoint a corruption correspondent And he's going around from service to service and working with that service to identify stories that he can do In some cases it might be even dangerous for people in the service to do or for their families If you see what i'm saying So that's one role that perhaps Voa and bbc can usefully provide to you know The courageous afghan journalists who are on the front lines What are your other thoughts about course corrections or other things we ought to be doing? Can I just say one thing about rta and then one thing about the bbc? First of all, I want to just pay tribute to mr. Anzor and to and to our partnership with with rta Um, we're working very closely with rta a bbc media reaction on a program called open jerker Which is a major program of public debate The fairly large audience about six and a half million people View that we just had a whole series of presidential debates Which were produced with rta By rta in association With us but to a set of bbc editorial standards and complete balance across the political piece ATV 11 presidential candidates took part in those And I think they are commanding a great deal of credibility I think rta is Potentially the most important media actor in afghanistan and that's a very unfashionable thing to say Particularly in washington. Yeah Um, and the reason for that is something I actually didn't think two or three years ago Where I felt actually all the energy was in the commercial sector and the dynamism and the independence, of course Was in the commercial sector But rta does reach across the whole country Um, it does reach into rural areas. It does reach outside of the cities It does reached those populations who are not reached by the commercial media And I think all media is important, but rta is is absolutely key to the future Of of a country particularly if it can become more independent What as we were talking about this morning is needed in afghanistan Is a national dialogue Is a national public debate and I think one of the foundation stones for the national dialogue to come Is something like art is is is rta. This is a difficult argument to make Actually, I mean we we support public service broadcasting around the world And the legacy the number of success stories of successful transition estate broadcasters to independent financially sustainable public service broadcasters is not a great one The potential of real success Is quite difficult the political price Of surrendering control Of your state broadcaster by any incumbent president Is very very high and arguably growing as media and communication infrastructures become more complex and more independent but the importance of that platform for independent public debate In fragmented fragile states I would argue has never been more important and I would like to kind of with others with you as others To reboot to reimagine the whole debate on state broadcasting and public service broadcasting How can we start projecting a new level of of energy and creativity in that into that discussion? Perhaps that's for another time. Very good. Anyone else on that subject? We'll go back out to the Let's see Gentleman standing in front of the person. Yeah, sir over there Zabi will under Siri my question is Goes to mr. Sharifi and mr. Karuchel About the increased violence, I guess the journalists I think that in a great deal will affect the freedom of press and freedom of expression So Has the media organizations partnered with the afghan ministry? In security ministries or institutions To address this issue and how do you see? The level of violence against journalists in the future And how do you see the future government to protect the rights and the and safeguard the Journalists and their rights in the future Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, mr. Nasiri It's good to see you in washington It's a huge challenge violence against media workers is becoming increasingly A bigger challenge and It's this kind of a lot of media workers and it has and because of the fact that a lot of The violence is raised by people who work in the government, you know, and Most of them security workers. It's increased the gap between media and the government And has created a vicious cycle where the media Fusely criticizes the government unfairly, you know, in a lot of respects and the government in return Keeps adding pressure on the media and this has created a vicious cycle whereas and as an undermined The constructive role of journalism And the only people that takes advantage of this is the taliban because afghanistan's war for the most part is war of perceptions and War of propaganda Well, what we have done in afghanistan, we have created a working group between representative of media support organizations and security organizations and we are having meetings on regular basis to create a working to create a working environment where we could Peacefully and constructively constructively resolve the problem And for example, a lot of things that we did was to create such guidelines On behaving on how media house Those who work for afghanistan security organizations should behave Media workers and we have distributed this to all security organizations and we have we are also working with them to add This guideline in the curriculum in the training curriculum of security organizations so that they know how to what that role and position of Media workers is what their right is and how we should behave with them In blue right there Rachel Reed from open society. Thanks for the discussion so far. It's been great following on the conversation You've been having about intimidation and threats against journalists um There have been some really impressive reports recently on big anti corruption corruption cases You know, so it is happening more than it was years some years ago Um, and one of the things that I know danish. You have been doing Is working with other independent media to do things jointly Um partly for protection. Is that still happening? Is that a model you see as being effective going forward? Yeah, um In in the last year in 2013 We touched some of the You know important incentive issue in afghanistan and we create for that You know align or you know Together with other media outlet how we touch some of like those kind of sensitive issue and how we depend on If if the pressure came from the government or warlord or other how you know to not Damage for example one organization were not killed. For example one Work organization we create that align for that to We share that the pressure from the you know from the government and it is work Before that If there was some when we get something Receive a strong case We pass that case to international media and international media was you know highlighted cover and then afghan media was You know translated in in in the credit goes to international media, but now We have around 17 independent media outlet With our align and in that align we choose the case we share with our Media outlet and we cover that and we pass When we release the the case, I think there is no pressure and Like some of our cases go to the atom the journal some of the cases But when they hear like I will give you the one example when there was a corruption in cobble municipality regarding the road cobble mayor try for one week to try how to To criticize media or how to response to that after one week he become quite and Uh, which is you know a power of that that align Yeah, yeah, Najib Well, I just want to add a few words on this. I think the media consortium is A great beginning in the world of investigative journalism in afghanistan. The problem was that previously if or still if a single media outlet goes and Covers a sensitive corruption case then what happens is that Media outlet or that particular journalist comes under the radar of either the government or the world or anybody who has been Responsible for the corruption case So what the media consortium does is that at the same time like six or seven media outlets Broadcast the same story So then in that case if it's a government if the perpetrator is the government or warlord Or whoever they cannot do much with six media outlets because what they do is that if they come to for example Pashua Pashua six Pashua Pashua says it's atm We got it from atm. It is as we got it from saba, you know So by this they actually the pressure is distributed and safety numbers, you know, yes And this is a very good way of going about investigative journalists and again a very good start. That's great Peter let me ask you this because the audience that we're trying to address with this conference is is of course in the in afghanistan But it's also here What kinds of stories? Haven't you seen and what kinds of stories would you like to see covered by the american media in afghanistan? from here on I think the american public brackets afghanistan with iraq and Because the coverage seems very similar I mean and we're both from the news business and or everybody on this panel is in the news business I mean the news business is about bad news. We don't cover hurricanes that don't happen We cover hurricanes that did happen So by its very nature, we're inclined to cover bad news because that is news That said, you know, I think it's not clear to the american people that and just to give you one Very obvious statistic about the difference between iraq and afghanistan last year and afghanistan 3000 afghan civilians were killed in the war That same year eight thousand iraqi civilians were killed now the population of afghanistan is about the same as iraq It may even be bigger So you're two and a half times more likely to be killed in iraq Today than you are in afghanistan. I don't think that is clearly american public And i'm not saying 3000 is a good number at all But if you actually do the math you're more likely to be murdered in this city still Then you are to be killed in the war in afghan and afghanistan as a civilian in new york six times more likely To be killed in new york leans, which is a reflection of course of the gun violence in this country But anyway, the basic point is that We don't really um american public doesn't really get that and I you know, there are some store I don't want to the incredibly good journalists in in in afghanistan for the western press matthew rosenberg and others And you know occasionally there'll be a story like a profile of sarma sanny and the business section of the new york times But that is very exceptional and i'm not saying we need to promote all the good news But there's a little story about sort of the telecom sector in afghanistan or the entrepreneurs Who are making it that would be you know be good to see more of those stories And and I mean What I wonder is going forward Uh, will will it get attention at all? Well, I think if the bsa is not signed We'll see as much coverage about in this country about afghanistan as we see today about tajikistan I mean that's I think that's just a fact. I mean if americans, you know, we love to forget The coverage of iraq more or less disappeared. It's come back because the situation is so bad, but You know, there will be there will not be a great deal of attention if there aren't american Soldiers in in some long term and by the way, why should there be? I mean if the afghan if the afghans don't want us there And we don't have people there Even though of course we all agree it's desirable that we stay in some shape or form Why would the american public really continue to care? I mean, it's just I think that's just a simple formulation right We've come to the end of our time and we need to go to the next item which happens to be me talking but Briefly briefly. I promise you but last thoughts from anyone any sort of Something up point you want to make very pithily Just well first of all and I do think I think voa and bbc Organizations are going to have an increasingly important role to play In terms of providing also the external independent coverage as well And I think may also provide a bit of cover for the continuation of investigative journalism in afghanistan I think that's probably going to become more important in the future rather than less important I'm extremely grateful by the way for voa and us if an asset putting this on And invited me to speak at this The final thought for me though is that is what I said before I just don't think we're taking this seriously enough Too much money and too much blood and treasure has gone into This foot to be wasted. This is an area of success It is an area Where a legacy has been built it can be secured But we're not going about it in the right way and we're not going about it carefully enough And we're not doing it urgently enough and I kind of think that not just in this not just here but also in In brussels and in london and and elsewhere a lot more attention needs to be paid for this I add one point Currently, you know Afghan media is a greeting, you know the watts dark role on coming election and Some of the Afghan media outlet came together to monitor coming election Whatever and and I believe We will control Somehow the fraud of you know in in the coming election Okay, I thought quickly quickly all that you know Afghanistan very recently had a very successful election It was the 2004 election. There was 70% turnout. There hasn't been 70% turnout in American elections since 1900 So, you know, it is not it's not impossible. The election will go pretty well. I mean, I'm I'm is that Can't be ruled out Yeah, very good point. Najib Thank you. Um, well ladies and gentlemen in Afghanistan. We have come a long way Today we have around 75 tv stations only more than 200 radio stations and several hundreds of newspapers websites stuff and This makes afghanistan the bastion of freedom in a repressive region which is controlled by authoritarian regimes and None of this would have been possible without generous Investment and support of the international community particularly the united states But it also signifies the fact that we cannot afford to lose this Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thanks to our panelists now. I'm just going to move over here So, uh, thanks to everyone for attending Today's discussions. Um, I um, I hope you found them thought-provoking and useful. I certainly did um, and The world's media is with us. So perhaps others outside of this room will also Some of you may know that I spent 26 years as an american network television correspondent Many of them covering international news And among many other adventures I once wrote a soviet tank from jalalabad to Kabul Covering the story as the russians began their troop withdrawal I'm proud of that work as a journalist But I have to tell you that one of the bad raps on commercial television news has some truth to it You've probably heard the cynical view of tv news that if it bleeds it leads Well, it's the nature of the business as was mentioned earlier And it's human nature Research consistently shows that people will switch channels during good news stories More readily than during stories of tragedy bloodshed and drama the networks know that So do the wires. So do the newspapers the news business thrives on conflict and conflict there has been in afghanistan On a day in afghanistan if a roadside bomb killed four soldiers depending on what what else was going on That might make the news in this country But on that same day of five new schools Or a maternal health clinic in haraq was opened You almost certainly would not hear about that over here One network Correspondent friend of mine used to come to Kabul every few months when I was working at the embassy and He would do stories about the american troops and what they were up to Frankly In the biz we call those bang bang stories Because they always had an explosion in them somewhere And my friend told me that he knew that the international forces were only there the purpose of the forces there Was to open up space for aid workers NGOs investors and most of all afghans To rebuild their country their shattered economy And to build some hope for the big generation that's coming forward in afghanistan He understood that that was what they were here for But he said that story is not sexy But as was noted in the previous panel between 2001 and 10 primary school enrollment rose from around 1 million to nearly 7 million A sevenfold increase in eight years The proportion of girls went from virtually zero in school to now close to 40 percent While uh while I was serving at the embassy in Kabul I helped to arrange and I'm terribly proud of this the and fund the launch of the afghan version of sesame street Sesame street Okay, the children's television series that teaches reading and counting And we produced our our our program and it is still being produced in close consultation with the afghan ministry of education Um, and there's some very clever people in that ministry who made it a very strong program The pro project helps to educate afghans from preschool stage and onward and frankly all the way up to adulthood in some cases That program creates hope and it represents real change that matters But you haven't heard about that much on the american media because stories of american gis and taliban suicide bombers are just more compelling television They are It's not that american audiences and readers have been told anything that's not true about afghanistan There's been plenty of tragedy afghanistan. There is plenty of corruption as we discussed And there are plenty of opportunities that are squandered in the last few years All legitimate news stories and they have been written about But in my view at least the american public has not heard the other half of the story in a fully balanced way Now don't get me wrong I'm not saying that the pessimism about afghanistan's future post 2014 is misplaced There are many reasons for deep concern I mean, it's a rough neighborhood as we've discussed Some of the neighbors are seeking to keep afghanistan weak for their own purposes And the country has always had its own deep internal divisions its own divisions tribal regional and so forth So yes, there is going to be trouble ahead, of course And no doubt about it But the conventional wisdom seems to hold That afghanistan is set now to revert to the bad old days So I think that it's incumbent on people in the room here And those of us who have spoken at the panel And everyone else is listening to try to prove the conventional wisdom wrong personally I believe in the younger generation of afghans The young afghans that I met In Kabul kandahar mazar and harat Many of them highly motivated and very impressive Of course they're going to need to be In any case, we americans may be war weary But our policy makers do know That afghanistan will continue to matter for geostrategic regions Both to the united states and to the west and there's no getting around that It's just a fact Speaking for the voice of america I can tell you that we plan to keep a robust presence on the air in dowry and pashto On radio and on television with our fine partner at rta and perhaps others While the shape of our efforts may change a little bit We and our sister organization rferl's radio azadi Are looking to maintain an important role For serving our audiences in afghanistan Um I guess what I would like to close by saying is that Whatever happens in terms of the military the political Aid budgets investment and so forth I hope that one message to afghans going forward Comes from this conference and it's simply this You have friends here thousands of us Who put some time into uh into helping out in the past And we have a special place in our arts for your country Thank you very much This is mazari sharif in northern afghanistan the country's fourth largest city Radio rabbi abalhi is one of the city's most popular Its staff is comprised exclusively of women journalists Many of them were banned from working during the time of the taliban They worked and experienced And even the leaders of the press If you want to send a message to them You can come to the press These were all the sources that we had been in afghanistan for 10 or 10 years Since the fall of the taliban in 2001 Millions of women have joined the work force Particularly in the field of medicine and health Where women make up more than 50 percent of providers Dr. Maria rasma is a recent graduate of balk university with her own private practice in the city Right now we are able to go to the hospital We are free to go to the hospital We don't have to go to the hospital We are willing to go to the hospital For our women So that when they get sick They will be able to go to the hospital Soraya Dalil is minister of public health The first woman to be appointed to the position in afghan history We have seen a progress A tremendous progress in terms of saving lives In terms of making sure that women when they gave birth to babies Survive and stay alive from from pregnancy and childbirth Afghanistan's 1964 constitution promised greater freedom for women Giving them the right to vote and run for elected office Society however was slow to adapt And decades of war undercut progress But it was the rise of the Taliban in 1996 that destroyed any vestige of advancement They instituted a fanatical repression of women Forbidding them from gaining education or working outside the home With the Taliban swept from power Professional women began to emerge from the shadows Today almost three million girls are enrolled in schools And the world bank estimates women make up nearly 20 percent of university students Soraya Paksad is a well-known women's rights activist And a 2008 recipient of the international women of courage award Gently violence against women is dramatically continued in the country Even though woman rights isn't in the top of the agenda Apparently in all constitutional framework women are in the agenda But when it goes to the implementation practices Still there's a long way to go But she's worried Despite increased freedoms She says violence against women continues And often goes unreported Across the nearby mountain from Kabul This young woman was executed by Taliban militants For refusing a marriage proposal Even among the more enlightened cities Prisons in Afghanistan are still full of rural women Charged with so-called moral crimes Generally runaways and rape victims Whose families refuse to help them Many raise children behind bars But even this may change As women rise through the ranks of law and justice 50-year-old Colonel Jamila Baez Was just appointed a district police chief in Kabul The highest ranking female cop in the country I don't know much about the police I don't know much about the police I'm just curious Thousands of women are studying law at universities in Afghanistan As they integrate professionally into society Changes will impact both the courts and law enforcement Allowing women to move into traditionally male occupations Lisa Gossi-Norestani runs Mutaharret Construction Company One of Afghan's largest construction firms But Norestani believes the task of rebuilding Afghanistan Is too important to leave out women She employs more than 100 working women And sees a strong future I'm happy because we have a new election Of course with new elections With new governments and all the new government So I'm happy While some Afghans are wary of the future After U.S. troops leave Many still believe in a bright future Afghan girls and women share the same dream