 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some fun games lined up for week number 11 in the NFL a couple of key divisional games We got cowboys at Vikings a tight spread between two NFC Powerhouses we're gonna break those down with a Ryan Williams and get you set for week number 11 in the NFL and help you Fill out your bed slips. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by a Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan pretty fun slate of games on tap for this week How are you doing today? I'm doing good man Yeah, it does look like an enticing slate and we love that going into the Thanksgiving holiday as That'll be fun to break it down and talk about but yeah this week 11 one And this a brush or fresh air breath of fresh air because we've been getting some slates that have kind of been a little bit Dicey the past couple of weeks where we felt a little bit uncomfortable with some of our lean So this one I think is shaping up to be one where we can go in with confidence It does definitely put me in some spots that I feel Uncertain about for sure like you know hypothetically betting a skittish dear like quarterback against Bill Belichick That seems bad, but you know, we're gonna go and break down those games and let you know what we're seeing Across the board at Fandall Sportsbook But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast Apple Wherever Amazon wherever you get your podcast. We are there just search for covering the spread hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win try out features like same-game parlays play your way and bet on more than just the final score Wager on everything from touchdowns to totally yards to catches on an app That's safe secure and super easy to use so sign up today for your no sweat first bet Make every moment more this season with Fandall Official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only refund Issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days restricts supplies the terms of sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com Rg and Arizona 100 next step protects next set to 53342 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit the ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 and in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 open wire text open Y and in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-889-9789 now one of the keys of this week Ryan is that Every outdoor game basically has wind involved with especially on Sunday. There are a lot of windy games I got the the the bills brown scheme is getting all the pub because there's snow there potentially But there is a lot of wind there as well and that's true for a lot of disease-coast games So we know that wind drags down the total that part's pretty obvious But how else does wind impact your approach to betting a game you can talk about props here too But like just overall, uh, how does wind impact the way you view a game? Yeah, it honestly Doesn't factor in all that much Jim Especially when we're talking about teams like the chiefs teams like the bills teams like The packers at one point these teams that we know that are gonna just be prolific with the past regardless um, and if I can see the numbers move in such a such a way that You know the totals coming down kind of ridiculously on a game that really opened up You know past the key number of like 43 or so And people are betting it down because they're afraid of this wind But there's still two high powered offenses not somebody, you know, we're not talking about maybe texan's cold type of thing But yeah, we got like chiefs chargers like outside Obviously, that's gonna be in la but if that was in kansas city I'm just gonna be betting the the over here and definitely taking leans on on teams where We could still see advantage being taken of in the market. So that's kind of what what I It doesn't factor in for me, but I'm definitely interested when it goes one way versus the other So with that bills browns game right now the total is 41 and a half from that one It's come down about like eight or seven or eight points since that opened And I think a lot of that's because of the forecast of snow but looking at the forecast right now The snow's gone sunday morning um It's still gonna be 20 mile per hour winds and I do care a lot about wind personally in terms of betting totals because like it does It does impact things quite a bit But we also have a pretty long history of josh allen being okay In these conditions. We've seen the total come down. The spread has been tightening. I think in part because of You know the the browns are the better rushing team than the bills are Do you have interest in potentially? Buying against that narrative in that game specifically Yeah, I think so just the way that you know Listen the bills they got to come out and and play I mean the the way that they lost that game against the vikings Absolutely devastating for josh allen who was questionable all week and then came into that game And that was it going to be a huge win for them because of what they did the week previously to the jets And now you're looking at two straight losses for this team really You know having to fight back in a tough a of c division or a of c conference. Excuse me I think that they really you know want to go full throttle here And we've seen cleveland brown games all year go go over insanely because they they love what they do They want to run the ball. They want to establish They want to be able to you know keep up in games where they're forced to score points So if the buffalo bills are driving the narrative we cleveland's going to try everything that they can to stay in this game Um, it just screams to me that this is going to be a game that will go over It's total which if it gets down to you know in the 40 39 range like this is absolutely Incredible value here that game opened up at 44 Yeah, this is something we talked about with collin wilson on the college football episode We were talking about wind with him and the impact of that and he will he said that there are some times where He will bet it early in the week bet the under because of The wind the forecast because again it does matter a lot and then there are situations where he may Cash out that that after after a while if he gets the read that it's gone too far Things of that nature so with this one we have seen a lot of movement I think it's worth while to at least give thought to potentially Taking a look at the the the total here obviously the total Coming down does relate to the spread as well because it's hard to cover a larger spread in a lower total so I would at least take a look at it and see if there may have been an overreaction because that game Specifically has gotten a lot of buzz for the weather this week. Let's dive into some gains now for week number 11 Starting on with a big a fc east game. It's the jets at the patriots. It's fun to have a jets patriots game in november that matters Um, so I think that's kind of a thrill as it is patriots are three and a half point favorites total is 38 We just saw this match up a couple weeks ago What in that one zack wilson had like three or four Meltas where he kind of you know tried to chuck the game away The jets did claw back and actually were competitive towards the end of that one But can the jets mask the wilson meltdowns enough to cover or potentially even win this game? I I don't think so It's just I mean look at the traditional Look at this matchup traditionally. I'm the patriots have absolutely owned the jets the jets haven't I don't believe they've won a game In like the past 14 matchups with it and that was an overtime loss that they experienced in in 2016 It doesn't matter tom brady matt jones bailey zappy. Who's back there like bill bella check just has this team's number and You know, we're looking at a jet side where the game earlier this year They only lost by the jets they only lost by five points But we had brice hall, you know, who is their their key offensive piece who was able to carry their way now It's zack wilson with you know A different type of situation there are receivers who are unhappy the running backs Have been able to get going the defense has been pretty pretty okay But the patriots will find ways to be able to you know dictate the pace here in this matchup I mean this is one where it just you know I think people will look at the jets and be like man The defense is great and they played against some competent teams and even though they're going into You know new england that they have a chance here and the patriots will come out and just blow the doors off of this team Because that's how these matchups go all the time this three and a half spread this three and a half spread the Jets have only covered by this number in one matchup Since since 2016 and that was in 2020 when they lost by three points So this is a really favorable number that you're getting the patriots at and it's really one that I want to be on Yeah, so the the first meeting was week eight. So it's actually pretty recent That was the first game without brice hall. So hall was not in that game But it was an odd game regardless because and like I bet the jets plus three and a half here So like I did I did do that and I have paused with that because The things the patriots do best which is like third down defense and making quarterbacks make mistakes are the things the jets are worse at Like the jets early down offense this year has actually been pretty decent It's been the late downs when zack wilson gets pressured where things Kind of just combust now the reason I decided to bet the jets here despite concerns around zack wilson Was in large part because the patriots offense ryan. I kind of think it sucks and that's a big part of why I decided to My numbers are showing value. That was the key reason I looked into it But the reason I was actually willing to buy into what my numbers were saying is because I think this offense just sucks if I look at like my My numbers just like It has a prior in there still so it's going to boost up the pages a little bit My numbers with priors had new england ranked 29th in total offense right now That's below the jets the jets are 24th by that number. So That's why I was okay taking the jets doesn't make me feel good. No Maybe I think the takeaway is maybe we just look at the under 38 and a half I know it's a very low number but like if i'm skeptical of The patriots offense against a very good jets defense and i'm worried about the patrons defense against A skittish quarterback. Maybe I should just take the under yeah, I mean, that's uh It's always a good luck when you get these two teams playing Because I just I just find it hard that the jets are going to be able to to try and find some points here um he in his in zack wilson's Two starts versus new england. This kid has seven interceptions. Yeah, I mean that's Not ideal. That's what we're dealing with here. Um, and and that's that's really that's what drives the patriots Like in these matchups where they're, you know, when they're favorite to win and where you see them like really explode And exploit defenses is when their defense makes it hard on the other offense They'll get some short fields for remandre stevens and damien eras what have you and just be able to Control and dictate the game script and that's what they that's what they are mo is Yeah, and the jets need to make sure they do not trail in this game because a negative game script zack wilson would be much worse than a neutral situation thing for sure Okay, let's move to what I think is the most fun game of the week That is the cowboys at the vikings right now cowboys one and a half point favorites in minneapolis total is 47 and a half and the cowboys They had some dak short circuits last week a bit of a blip there Some bad turnovers against packers They probably should have won that game and I think that they on a like a talent perspective would have usually but Can they rebound here and win as favorites against the vikings? Yeah, I think that they that they can um, you love that this game has a Different vibe around it right they were traveling into lamb. Um, I believe fresh off of the of a buy and You know cold narrative type of thing It's a plan in minnesota, but it's gonna, you know be covered a little bit warmer for this team Um, and they they got some they got some dogging them with that with that defense there I think they want to come out here and really show that they You know belong at the top of the nfc crop here and the the vikings they really have you know found themselves in a situation where Yeah, their record speaks for itself right the only loss against the philly philly team that you know looks vulnerable at this at this point in time but Really gotten away with some close victories here Especially when we're looking out for the buy, you know that arizona game could have gone either way They won that by eight on the washington game They kind of needed some late magic to win that game by three and then we know what just happened in buffalo It was like I mean jesson jefferson goes out and makes an incredible catch But like josh ellen still had a chance to you know get this team back into into good graces So I feel like this team is just riding at an all-time high right now I think people will love taking the vikings here Getting the getting the points and the cowboys will go overlooked And I just think they they have the you know, they have a huge pressure rate on defense that they can make curt cousins life miserable And if we can get dak and the offense, you know the gear's kind of running here in this match up against the vikings defense I think that we can see the the cowboys pull away here. It's a good number at one and a half Yeah, I think that is a pretty interesting number for sure. My numbers aren't showing any value here It has the it has it's basically a toss up Um, so I'm going to stay away from betting it But the key thing that I think is worth monitoring is this one I think the injury report matters a lot more for this game than I mean it matters for every week But like I think for this one, it's especially pertinent. Uh, that's because uh christian derisaw The vikings left tackle is in concussion protocol Didn't practice wednesday if he practices thursday on a limited basis That would be a very good thing for the vikings because you don't want to face I mean, I know demarcus lorenz is also banged up, but um, you've got demarcus lorenz there. You've got uh, michael parsons there I think that that is um A little bit concerning To have if those two guys both want to be healthy that could be an issue For the vikings. So keep an eye on specifically christian derisaw. See what his See what his status is as the week goes along right now For the cowboys demarcus lorenz didn't practice on wednesday anthony bar who didn't practice or didn't play last week which forced um michael parsons into more of like a Linebackery type role than a pass rusher role anthony bar did get into practice wednesday He was limited there the hamstring injury. So if we get lorenz bar With no derisaw, then I think I could consider pulling the trigger on the cowboys Most likely not going to but I think that That'd be a really rough thing for them to deal with so I think As with every game keep a close eye on the injury report But specifically here check out status of bars check out the status of lorenz and check out the status of derisaw Because that'll be a pretty key factor in this game And also anthony bar revenge game. Let us not forget the most importance the most important aspect of this game Absolutely love that love that gem. Alrighty. Let's finish up here with the cheese at the chargers spread his Down to five and a half year at this game in los angeles total Is 50 and a half and the spread had been six and a half But then on wednesday both keen and alan and mike williams were able to practice on wednesday So Do you think the chargers key pays in what is kind of effectively a must-win game here? Yeah, I think It's always it's always that slippery slope right jim when you and I are talking about the chargers here But at home, uh, this these are this feels like a lot of points for the chargers to be giving To the chiefs, you know, if this was closer to, you know, maybe like a four and a half four I might be looking at the chiefs here But the chiefs have played some pretty close games here when when things can, you know Go awry. I think the the huge thing for the chargers is how the health is looking on defense That's going to be huge but this offense for kansas city is absolutely, you know a shell of itself They got pieces missing on both sides of the ball Patrick mohomes is going to be down with some key weapons there You know the secondary for the chargers absolutely loves that and if yeah, if we can just get one of the two pieces back for Justin herbert and keenon allen or mike williams I think that this this narrative around this game is going to change So I want to get the five and a half points now while I can especially with all these injuries That kansas city is dealing with and this is you know two teams that you know Are pretty prolific when it comes to scoring the ball some of these games have have been a lot closer I mean you're looking at spreads of three um five six three um six again, you know overtime games They love to play against each other and it play competitively So if we can get some healthy pieces on the charger side, that's definitely a number we want to get in on Don't mention an overtime game ever again That was a game where I had the chargers spread and I'm pretty sure it was three and a half And they lost in the kelsey touchdown in overtime it was Like is that painful for you jim it was bad man I I want to like double check this to make sure that's like but i'm pretty sure it was three and a half I know that it might have been three so might have been a push had they lost in a field goal But it was so bad I know like I did I can't complain because I won a game based on a similar situation last year too was the Uh the cowboys patriots game They couldn't have covered the touchdown in ot and then cd lamb scores So like I have benefited from these situations But like my brain just kind of ah it like it like ah It just like melds together when I hear overtime chiefs chargers So uh that hurt but you did touch on an important thing in this game And it's it's not talking about the chargers receivers talking about the the chiefs receivers because juju smith Schuster's uh situation last week did not look good. That was ugly. Yes And so a lot of times you do see guys clear concussion protocol Within a week. I really kind of doubt juju will So that's concern number one marquess velvet scantling. Uh, he has an illness. He'll probably be okay to go He missed practice Wednesday. Meekle hardman has an abdomen slash illness is listed on the injury report didn't practice Wednesday He didn't practice at all last week was ruled out friday And the fact he didn't practice again wednesday says to me that he's probably on the the wrong side of questionable So I think we could be trending toward a situation where the chiefs are going in likely with mvs likely with tony justin watson stuff like that but I think they're going to be without juju and hardman and so when I look at my numbers before accounting for those injuries I've added uh, mike williams and keenan allen back in or i did mike williams and i'm not an allen back I just need to see that before I believe he'll actually play. Um But my numbers with williams back in at the cheese favor by 7.38 because the cheese real good I can't bet that though I can't bet the five and a half now because i'm concerned about the cheese injuries because those are not in my numbers yet because I don't want to rule them out before they're they're out. Um so That's why i'm not pulling the trigger and I think that Your sentiment towards wanting to be on the chargers is likely correct because we may be undervaluing The injuries on the chief side of this one Yes, absolutely and and it's just one that we have not seen in a while, right? But I I think that it always just goes down the same that yeah This is five and a half maybe not the six six and a half that we would tend to look at when these chargers are favorite or are Dogs buy a touchdown Right and we just hammer that all the time because justin herbert just finds ways to will this team Into competitive competitive nature where the game is close in the fourth quarter Even still at five and a half with these pieces that he's getting back I mean especially playing at home like I just feel like five and a half is just the number that The points are just too much for me to lean in the chief's favor who you know have had troubles Covering a number like this that's kind of close to a touchdown even when they're at home Yeah, I'm glad so like I was kind of annoyed they flex this game to Sunday night because it takes it off the Dfs main slate, but it will be nice to get to watch this game with no distractions So I guess I can take that as a minor consolation there Okay, where else is he in value across week number 11 if angela sportsbook ryan? Yeah, so we'll talk about a couple teams here. Um, let's start it off In the early early go. Uh, I gotta talk about the bears. I mean, I haven't had a chance to talk about the bears with you Jim, uh, we're getting three points here The bears are getting three points going into Atlanta. Um, you're not having to worry about any weather factors there And I and I just don't know what type of offense identity the lana falcons have like right at this point Which is probably music to the defensive coordinator of the bears ears because the defense has really been the been the Catalyst for these losses When they're losing these leads late and of course, they've you know, they've lost them at home So I know that the line makes sense here But you know the way that justin fields has been playing with this offense You know if they're able to score points like they did against the lions like they did against miami I just don't know how a lana can keep up with this team They are going to need a little bit from their defense there to to help keep it in in flow But I you know getting three points here for the bears. I I gotta look at that as a favorable number I also am interested in the eagles if you can believe it Um, I believe we have them at six and a half still. I know that they opened at seven I've seen them at seven a couple places But you know, this is this is one of those prime spots gym where people just saw this team on national television where they were you know double digit favorites and Kind of let one slip and people are questioning whether they you know should be at the top But this was an undefeated team for a reason and everybody's riding high on the colts because of what jeff saturday was able to come into Do that's that's the super bowl for indy right now as far as i'm concerned Like the fact that they were able to go out there and get that win when everybody was doubting them and what's going to happen there Jim ursay's talking about it tweeting about it Like there's so much that was invested into that win that I think they're just not even looking ahead to a fully team That just lost and is going to be coming in there hungry and ready to go So i'm willing to take the seven there with the eagles to kind of bounce back and then last but not least I got to talk about the pittsburgh stealers here We get a rematch matchup from week one going against the sensitive bangles the sensitive bangles are banged up on offense A lot differently than what this was in week one and when tj white played tj white is now back The stealers have not lost the game It's only been two but tj white makes a ton of difference on that defense and we've seen You know joe burrow really struggle if the defense has been able to get pressure So i'm willing to get the points on them, which is three and a half right now on the fandom sports book For us a couple other places, but i'm willing to get that three and a half number there Yeah, with the eagles my numbers had that game at 6.89 so on board with you where It's six and a half right now a fandom sports book. I think that if you're going to bet that game I go towards the eagles because They did lose dallas goddard, but hey, they get tyree jackson back this week What else could we possibly care more about when a converted quarterback playing tight end who is six foot seven If you're gonna like win my heart win it with a six foot seven former tyta former quarterback playing tight end Put that guy in the taste and hill roll and that's boogie like i'm i'm down for that um, so yeah, I think that the eagles potentially a tiny bit undervalued with the stealers bangles game I went into this week expecting to be on the The bangles side here because i'm not a huge stealers guy based on what my numbers say So it opened it four and a half. I actually did 3.76. So it's moved to three and a half now. I think that's appropriate. Uh, and like I don't know man. They just get the job done. Uh, you have tj wattback Like you said mink if it's patrick didn't play last week had an appendectomy, but it's apparently going to play this week Which seems I mean good for I've had an appendectomy. I would not want to be playing football week after like good for you Dude, um built different, uh But I having both those guys there. I think it's going to make a pretty big difference We saw them play well even with outfits patrick last week that could be a pretty fun one So I thought I'd be on the bangles, but they're volatile offense and I think this uh Stealer seems better than maybe I was giving them credit for uh earlier on Alrighty, that's all we got here for week number 11 in the nfl But ryan, I think it should be a pretty fun week and uh looking forward to talking about some monday net football We've got uh the cardinals and 49ers in mexico city to talk about a monday. That's gonna be a lot of fun It will be a lot of fun I can't wait and then we gear up for Thanksgiving week gem Which is always the fun slate to talk about so good luck to everybody on week 11. We'll catch you guys next time Yeah, you can find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w will have him on next week monday and wednesday We'll talk about some thanksgiving football games and also preview week 12 So two ryan episodes next week still despite the truncated week I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your bets for week number 11 We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down player props with jj zacker recent This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network