 What is going on everybody? Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire that is right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and numberfire.com where today we are getting you set for UFC 250 coming up this weekend. It is a locked, a locked card, loaded card, I guess is probably the better way to say that. A loaded card for you coming up this Saturday. We're gonna break things down from a DFS perspective and let you know which fighters you should target on FanDuel. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here once again by Austin Swain. You can find him on Twitter at A Swain 3. He does Number Fires UFC DFS coverage along with NASCAR and the NBA. Austin, we were talking before last week about how this card, we didn't really know a lot about it and then the details came out. You immediately were tweeting about how good of a card this is. So I'm just gonna ask you, how good of a card is it? It ended up being a really fantastic card. You know, if there's questions and we'll get into the made event and the competition level there, but a lot of great fights made at Bantamweight. Some title, title implications on the main card as well as you got a lot of young prospects sprinkled throughout the pre-limb card as well as the main card as well. So a lot of budding UFC stars that they locked and loaded onto this card. It's a second pay-per-view since they returned from the COVID break. So I was expecting something, but it kind of weird. We don't usually only have to wait a week to know who's fighting on what card, but a very pleasant surprise last week for sure. And it seems like this starts a string where there are like USC cards every Saturday, right? For the next couple of weeks? Yeah, normally the rotation is the first Saturday of the month, we'll have a USC pay-per-view card. There will be two TV pay-per-view cards, one immediately following the pay-per-view and then the final week of the month. And then there's an iffy, usually, and maybe set it in a different foreign location card it's a slate that may take place at a different time. If it's taking place in Abu Dhabi, you could have a three AM walk. So that's usually when they'll experiment with the international stuff, obviously not now with the COVID stuff going on, but usually there is some sort of UFC action every Saturday except for occasional holiday breaks and things like that. So yeah, definitely a sport that you can grind week to week very similar to NASCAR in that regard. Absolutely and day to day with NASCAR at this point. So it's been interesting for sure. Make sure you check out numberfire.com. Austin will have his helper there for UFC later this week, also the NASCAR helper for the Atlanta race coming up on Sunday. So go to numberfire.com. Follow Austin on Twitter at Aceway3. One logistical note for this card is that lock is at 4 p.m. Eastern on FanDuel. It has been 6 p.m. on I think every other slate since the COVID-19 breakout. So make sure you have your lineups completed before then, just so you are set. Now I believe it's a staggered lock. So there are a couple of fights that lock at 4 p.m. and then there are others that lock later. Is there a late swap on this, Austin? I don't know, I probably should have checked this before. I don't believe there will be late swap for it or anything like that. You certainly probably would need it with weigh ins determined on Friday or if a fighter's feeling ill we're gonna pull out of the fight it would be Saturday morning. So you're not gonna get into a situation and you get in with NBA with last minute lineup changes or anything like that. So you should be good to go to begin your lineup building process after weigh ins are completed. We'll watch for obviously any substitutes on fights later this week. We've covered a few of those in the podcast but we should be good to go with what we have stacked here and given it's taking place in Las Vegas same place as last week should be no logistical issues like visas or anything like that. So crossing my fingers, everything is gonna stay as we preview it today. Imagine checking beforehand. I did not, but I did not. So whatever, we're gonna roll on with this preview here in just one second and get Austin's full thoughts on this Carba first. As mentioned, USC 250 is coming up on June 6th and there is no better way to bet the fights than on Fandals Sportsbook. Right now, new users can get an exclusive odds boost when you sign up. Just join Fandals Sportsbook and they will boost Amanda Nunez's odds to beat Felicia Spencer from minus 650 I believe it's minus 700 now to plus 250. That means you can bet it to $20 on the favorite to win up to $50. To claim your exclusive odds boost just sign up for Fandals Sportsbook and deposit to see the odds, 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Colorado, first online wager only except in Colorado, must waste wager and designated offer market, $10 minimum first deposit required, $50 max bonus gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Indiana, call 1-800-NINE with it in West Virginia, visit www.1-800-GAMBLER.NET in Colorado, call 1-800-522-4700. How many disclaimers can we make within one read? We will find out almost as many disclaimers as there are fights on this card. It is a 12 fight card, so let's dive on in and break this one down. As you heard there in that read, Amanda Nunez is the headliner here, she is going up against Felicia Spencer. It's a five round fight and we always start things off here on the podcast awesome by discussing those, but this one's different because Nunez is minus 750, so even longer than I thought it was, minus 750 and she's minus 250 to win by knockout or submission at Fandals Sportsbook. So is this fight as one sided in your eyes as the Sportsbooks, or Sportsbooks view it as viewing? Absolutely. View it as being, my gosh, happy Monday. Absolutely, yeah, it's certainly a Monday, but I think the Sportsbooks certainly have it correct here and this is a dynamic you'll see in women's mixed martial arts in that it's relatively new to the scene, about 15 years old at this point, so the competition level is hit and miss from time to time and you'll find that Nunez is a minus 750 favorite to win and certainly you mentioned the method of victory proposals there. You'll see similar things when Valentina Shevchenko defends her title at 125 pounds. Amanda Nunez, Valentina Shevchenko, really the two dominant women in mixed martial arts and you look at Nunez, she's arguably the greatest of all time, she's the Michael Jordan of women's mixed martial arts. If you look at her resume, she's knocked out Rhonda Rousey, she's knocked out Holly Holm, she's defeated Shevchenko twice as well. She's a little bit bigger than Shevchenko, so that was a tough fight at a higher weight class for Shevchenko and she knocked out Chris Cyborg, when she was fighting with Belovator and Invicta was this terrifying woman that nobody wanted any piece of. Felicia Spencer faced her as well. Nunez is dispensed of all of them, so the best women's mixed martial artists ever, Nunez has beaten all of them and so she rightfully deserves that title of the goat of women's mixed martial arts and really Felicia Spencer, it's not her fault that she's going in here as such a huge underdog because she's really one of the best 145 pounders, so that again, that's featherweight. That's the biggest actually UFC weight class for women, so 145 pounds, this is their version of heavyweight. She's about as good of a challenger as you can find out 145, like I said, she went the distance with Chris Cyborg and pretty easily knocked out Zara Farron in her last fight, but Nunez's just level of competition is as good pound for found at women's or men's anywhere compared to their respective talent as far as the name she's got on her hit list and the reason why is because every woman that's a fighter has said she's the hardest woman who's ever hit her and that power makes a substantial difference when you're striking with her on the feet, that the idea she used a leg kick to knock out Holly Holm who's an accomplished kick boxer, maybe the most successful in the history of North America. She just has so many different tools in her toolkits, well-trained in submission, that's really kind of what she broke into MMA as, so well-rounded and Felicia Spencer, you look on the other side, she's more of a submission artist, right? That's how her claim to fame and so of course there's a potential at plus 450 or whatever odds you happen to get Felicia Spencer at. She catches Nunez in a mistake and we've seen big upsets in women's fights before you, hit Ronda Rousey and Holly Holm, but I think Nunez has worked every penny as a big favorite to win and you mentioned the odds boost as well, that sounds like a great deal to me at plus 250 because she certainly got an advantage in all three dimensions and the sports book, if you look at it, it's reflected of that. All three of her method of victory props are greater than any of Felicia Spencer's, right? And this is coming from Felicia Spencer, the submission artist actually has less of a chance to submit Amanda Nunez than the other way around. So I love Nunez in this fight and she's the most expensive player for a reason. I haven't even been touched on the fact this is five rounds and she has a high pour for fantasy for that. So I very much am all into Amanda, all things Amanda Nunez this weekend in the main event. So Amanda Nunez, $23 on Fandall and on Fandall Austin, we have that MVP slot which is a 1.5 X multiplier for the fighter you decide to put in that slot. They have the same salary as they would have if they were a regular fighter and with the odds being so heavily in favor of Nunez both to win and to win early potentially is she going to be the default MVP pick for you on Fandall? Yeah, absolutely and we'll dive into the big three that we'll discuss probably throughout this podcast when you look at Fandall's player pool but Nunez is the most comfortable option to win. She has the best odds there. She has the five round volume four that the other two options that we'll get to don't necessarily have in her favor and she's also got the best most accomplished resume. So I trust the skill set that she's bringing in. She's not a prospect and she's not facing the toughest fighter she's ever faced before. She's facing Felicia Spencer who may not even crack that top five as far as the most difficult opponents she's faced and Nunez has beat much tougher competition. So I'm definitely going to turn to Nunez most often at $23 at the MVP slot. We talked about in the first podcast Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are usually worth it for a reason. Amanda Nunez has everything, every box checked this weekend in the MVP slot and it's an option that I very much like to have there for that comfort. Is there a gap between her and the field or do you think that there are other fighters who are at least like viable alternatives for that MVP slot? Right. So let's talk about the big three, right? You look at the big three. You are alluding to our Sean O'Malley, Alonzo Mennofield and Amanda Nunez. They are the three most expensive fighters on this card and they both have really good odds to get a win via knockout or via submission. Mennofield is minus 150, O'Malley is minus 185 and Nunez at minus 250. So all these fighters have really good odds to get an early win. Do you think they're in the same tier as Nunez though? I would say that the argument's certainly there for Sean O'Malley, right? In that when you look at Sean O'Malley's matchup he is in a situation where he's facing Eddie Weinland, USC veteran, but really in a way it's very clear what the plan is for him and the matchup makes a lot of sense for him as a viable prospect. He's the next great thing at Bantamweight 135 pounds. The star potential is obvious because he's 5'11", which is very, very tall for 135 pounds. He's an outstanding striker on the feet, tons of length in cardio. Really his claim to fame is he broke his leg in the middle of a fight against Andre Sukumtoth and still won the fight. Oh my gosh. Debatable fight IQ from Sukumtoth to let him wrestle instead of making him stand up and fight on his broken leg. But that was really a coming out moment for Sean O'Malley. He's developed a following on Twitch. He's a very popular fighter amongst the UFC roster and it's very obvious what they're doing for O'Malley is they're trying to fast track him back toward title contention. And so he got a matchup that was probably, you know, Brian Kelleher, Brian Boom Kelleher. We'll talk about him. He's also on this card. He asked for O'Malley. The UFC kind of hit him away from O'Malley because Kelleher's got big hands and Weinglund is certainly an aging veteran coming off two or three losses. Big deficits in the height and reach department as well as volume as well. You know, O'Malley's certainly a star in the making and they set him up in a position to win. Why he's a little bit lower than Nunes for me is obviously the five round floor. Okay, and anytime you have a prospect that's moving up the UFC rank, you never technically know when they're gonna hit their ceiling, when they're going to meet their skill level and the tiers of fighters that they should be training for and getting better at. So I certainly feel more comfortable with Nunes than O'Malley if I a little bit. And for me, at least it's a little bit further back of a gap to Alonzo Menafield. So when you talk about Alonzo Menafield, I checked this morning, he's down to plus 100 to knock out his opponent, Devin Clark, this morning on Fandall Sportsbook. It has been minus money odds when it released as well. So he's pretty much what the UFC dreams of it. Like heavyweight, he's got nine wins, nine knockouts. Can't do much better than that inside an MMA venue. And he's really kind of beat up though on the two weakest light heavyweights on the roster though. Yeah, Paul Beardew Craig was his last opponent. Interesting style in that all the time he'll lay on his back to try to get people to like submit and opponent and the referee will have to stand and back up because really what he's trying to do is grapple on the ground exclusively, doesn't offer a lot in terms of striking. And then you look at his other opponent, Vince Marrera, lost to Paul Craig. So this has really kind of been the bottom of the barrel. He sees a little bit of a step up with a guy like Devin Clark who just had a great performance against Johnny Townsend. He was on top of him for 10 minutes in that fight as a wrestler. And so that type of top control really just total domination defensively. Townsend only was recorded with six significant strikes in that fight. The game plan is very clear for Devin Clark against Menafield is I don't want him to hit me in the face with one of his fists. So I'm gonna try to hold him down onto the mat and control him that way. Menafield has never been taken down to the UFC. So Clark would certainly have to be a different level wrestler than he's faced so far. But Clark has been knocked out twice in his career as well. So he's susceptible that that's why you see the odds on the knockout. But with a prospect like Menafield, I don't have the same tape even as I do with O'Malley. And I have a path to victory with a guy with UFC success on the other end. So for me it's Nunes and then a little bit back to Sean O'Malley and then a little bit back further to Alonso Menafield. That's the order of salary they're in as well. So makes it simpler in that regard. But even if the salaries are in that order, there is, if you view there as being a tier between Nunes and O'Malley, or Nunes and O'Malley and then Menafield, that can say to you, okay, I think Nunes and O'Malley are worth their salaries, whereas Menafield may not be. Is that kind of the way you're viewing those three? Right, and yeah, right. If you look and you tried to cram all three into a lineup, it doesn't really make very much sense to do so because what you would be doing is you'd be playing Eddie Weinland and Devin Clark against their opponent. That's gonna significantly hamper your upside as far as fitting them all into your lineup. So you're gonna have to choose on an individual lineup basis. And obviously, if you multi-enter in tournaments, you can vary your exposures, depending on how comfortable you are. But when you look at all three of them, I certainly have the most faith in Amanda Nunes because even if she goes to a decision, I've got the five round four there. And then Sean O'Malley, I just feel like is facing a weaker opponent compared to his talent level. And so Menafield really doesn't feel worth that $21, even though on a normal slate like last week when I'm turning MVP to a guy who's never thrown more than 50 strikes in his UFC career, I would have loved a guy like Menafield coming in with knockout potential. Maybe he takes a backseat on a card with heavier favorites here. Are you viewing this as being a slate where you wanna go stars and scrubsy? Obviously, like you said, you can't fit all three in. But if you go Nunes and O'Malley together, you have $55 remaining for your final four slots, which is $14 per fighter. Do you think that is a viable approach or are you kind of picking between Nunes and O'Malley and then going balance from there? Certainly in tournaments, I would vary. In cash games, I would play both Nunes and O'Malley together just because you have the high odds of victory there with the upside potential. We'll get into some of the value that we see later, but I think it's possible that you can jam two of those studs in together. And hey, you know, every UFC slate, you kind of have to make a fork in the road. If you really, especially now hearing me say, well, there's more of a clear path to Devin Clark, then all of a sudden you get the reduced ownership of a guy who still has the potential to knock out his opponent very quickly. So there's a fork in the road that you make when forming your strategies for tournaments. In a player pool this small, something we run into with NASCAR as well as viable players inside the player pool makes it harder to differentiate tournament lineups. But you know, I would limit to two of them. And then certainly you have a lot of flexibility with some very interesting favorites throughout the rest of the card. Of the slates we've broken down so far, it's occasionally happened in USC history. I could see all 12 favorites winning all 12 fights. And so you can't have Amanda Nunez and Sean O'Malley and four favorites in your lineup. So we kind of have to pick and choose where our spots are and what we're targeting from a fantasy perspective to fit in there. Okay, so it seems like Nunez and O'Malley are the main priorities here. You were talking about Devin Clark. He is plus 360 to get a win via knockout or submission. And relative to his salary, that's pretty good. So let's focus on the value place here. And if we wanna jam in Nunez and O'Malley, we gotta find a lot of value. Cause again, $14 is more than 11, but it's still not a whole lot on your average per fighter remaining. So are there good value plays available on the slate where you can feel comfortable jamming in both Nunez and O'Malley up there? And if so, who stands out to you for those value options? Well, comfort is always subjective, but I do have a few options that we can certainly look at. I think I'll start bottom up as far as the cheapest fighter that I'm looking at targeting a guy, Brian Boom Kelleher. We've seen him before on a Fyanduul slady fought in a fight night card about a month ago in Jacksonville. And when we looked there, we saw him and he was on pace to give up 129 strikes to his opponent Hunter Azure before he actually knocked out Azure. But you can see that defensively, he wasn't very sharp in that bout in that Azure's more of a wrestler. He was about to land 129 strikes on him. In comes Cody Stamen, who Cody Stamen's at $18 on Fyanduul. One of the most interesting Bantamweight prospects in that he normally fights at 135 pounds. This fight will be at 145 pounds likely because it'd be tough for Kelleher to cut to 135 on a month's notice, probably pretty hard on his body and would significantly hurt his chances of winning the fight. But so this will take place at 145. It's Stamen's first bout there. Certainly with Kelleher's defensive woes against Hunter Azure, Cody Stamen's much better as a striker than Hunter Azure was. So certainly I think there'll be volume to be had and you look what Kelleher did in that way, Kelleher threw plenty himself as well and actually found a path to a knockout finish. He's finished his last two fights as well. That's a guy I kind of want to target in this price range of somebody who has finishing upside both with a submission and a knockout and incredible volume that even if he takes a tough decision loss or maybe he's knocked down in the third round, he's got plenty of significant strengths and volume on the board. So I look at a guy like Kelleher, very versatile. Both these guys have over four significant strengths per minute. They're in that smaller 25 foot octagon that's gonna force the pace a little bit. I certainly can see this as a spot where we target Kelleher with winning potential. Certainly Kelleher's a live dog in this fight. And then the next guy I'm looking at is Maki Patolo at $13. Apologies to Maki if I messed up the pronunciation of his last name there, but he's moving up to 185 pounds. We're seeing some fighters transitioning weight classes in this COVID environment. So that's been very interesting, but he'll move up, but normally in concern about size of a fighter moving up, he'll actually have the smallest little bit of height and reach advantages on his opponent, Charles Bird. Bird $18 in the fan dual player pool. But Patolo's as active as they come. He's done 5.42 significant strikes per minute. He's never attempted to take down. So it's very clear what his strategy is very similar to Justin Gaichi who we saw a few never attempted to take down. He's trying to stand there and throw punches. That's a good thing from a fan if you see perspective and you look at Charles Bird, he'll definitely have an advantage on the ground but can even get it there. He's been knocked out in his last two fights and he's gonna see a high volume striker here with Patolo. That can't be the most comfortable matchup for him. So relative to their odds to victory and a method of victory prop and essentially what is a stylistic coin flip for me will Bird have the advantage wrestling or Patolo striking at only $13. I'm willing to take that coin flip versus landing on somebody like an Eddie Weinland at $10 or a Felicia Spencer at $13 that I don't believe have any chance to win their fight. Patolo plus 138 to get the win there against Bird and then Kelleher plus 205 to win against Damon. Now let's talk about Kelleher quickly because like again, I don't know a whole lot about USC. So I was surprised last week when Kevin Holland was initially on the slate because he had just fought recently. Obviously he did wind up dropping out but now Kelleher also fighting again really quickly. Is that common in like, does that have a negative impact on a fighter's outlook even if they just were in the octagon like less than a month ago? Well, Gilbert Burns is an animal. He'd say fooey with that because he's fought six times in eight months or something like that and a variety of different weight classes but normally it is a little concerning. A lot of USC fighters because of the damage they take they actually receive a medical suspension from their athletic commission. So they're not even allowed to fight in a combat sports event until their medical suspension expires. Certainly Kelleher took plenty of damage in that fight. Like I said, Azure lane did plenty of strikes and so I'm a little surprised to see him back so quickly but I think Kelleher was initially targeting a match against Sean O'Malley on this card. And O'Malley had known he was gonna return on June 6th for a while now. So I think when that kind of fell apart and they didn't let Kelleher have a shot at O'Malley he still took a fight on the card anyway. So is there a concern with the damage in there perhaps but also I have a guy that has octagon experience within the last month and he's not going to have quote unquote ring rust as it's been told sometimes. So it certainly goes one way or another. I think as these fighters continue to train in their diet and their weight cutting abilities Kelleher certainly he's normally fought 135 pounds his whole career. He's fought both of these fights at 145 pounds. So he doesn't have to cut as much weight. So it may not be as taxing to him physically and that's why he feels like he's game for this fight. And he's in fighting shape. He hasn't taken an eight month layoff to eat fried chicken and do that type of stuff. And then get back in the training routine. You know he's been back in the gym training for this match but he certainly took a very difficult opponent here on short notice. But Kelleher's a live dog and just about any fight. So any MMA fanatic will tell you that. The idea of fighting twice professionally within a month is just the most mind boggling thing I've ever heard. So kudos to him. I couldn't do it but more power to him for sure. Jim Gilbert Burns would fight again this weekend if you asked him to. Some of these guys fight. I'm not gonna ask him to. He doesn't have to worry about that. I'm not gonna ask. Believe me. He only took 29 strikes so I think he'd be good for it. He had not a lot of damage from Tyron Woodley on Saturday if you watched the fight. I'm sure he would be just fine against him regardless of how many he took. So I'm gonna avoid that one personally. Now Austin the interesting thing to think here is that with this emphasis on Nunez and O'Malley specifically we're kind of disregarding the middle tier because if you use those two yes we can get there via fighters like Kelleher and potentially Petolo but we're probably still gonna wind up ignoring the middle tier and like you said there are some interesting fighters in that middle tier on Fandle in the $16, $17, $18 range who could have finishing upside and could get the win via knockout or submission. Which fighters do you think in that middle range have the potential for a huge fantasy performance that could go a bit overlooked here? Right and I wanna take this section to touch on a little bit on what I've talked about earlier which is the smaller octagon. It's 25 feet is the diameter on the octagon they're using at the UFC Apex facility both last weekend and this upcoming weekend. And a lot of betting sharps and people they'll ask you know Austin, you know you gotta stack favorites in your fantasy lineup because everything's gonna be a submission or knockout because the smaller octagon's gonna force people to be together. Last week the three highest level fights the last three fights of the evening they all went to decision. So I really haven't altered by process with a smaller octagon because I liken it to you're a baseball guy, you have the solo shot podcast you do. If every game was played at course field then all of a sudden stacking course with, yeah, it'd be- It's a nightmare. The thought of doing that and trying to pick pitchers gives me like the high anxiety. Yeah, but if everybody's dealing with that same condition then all of a sudden we'd revert back to looking at matchups and styles and that type of thing when you're looking at analyzing baseball from a daily fantasy. I think of the octagon in no different way. You know I still have plenty of points method of victory props that I was interested in last week that I'm still interested in this week because fighters will pick their style. You know you can put Tyron Woodley in a forehand octagon he still wouldn't throw punches in a phone booth. That's just who he is he's gonna sit behind the cage and look for the overhand right. So I'm not really, I don't feel the necessity to go get favorites that I think are gonna knock their opponent out because I still think we're gonna see decisions on Saturday just like we did this past Saturday. But I look at the styles that some of these fights have made for us and there are a lot of spots where I'm looking at that I say yeah I can see a finish there. And so I just wanted to touch on three of them. I think the first place I'm gonna turn we've talked about Sean O'Malley being the future at Bantamweight 135 pounds he's undefeated 511 he's very that was Cody Garbrandt who's actually in the co-main event the second to last fight of this card. He's a lower ranked fighter than the Bantamweights that are the third card that's Aljamaine Sterling and Cody Sandhagen but he got the more preferential spot and the reason why is because Garbrandt is fireworks he's exciting. He got it let us temper get the best of him and he got knocked up by TJ Dillishaw twice in his two championship bounce there but this is a guy who've held the championship belt at only 26 years old at a team alpha male there are questions about his fight IQ you know he was able to get in a scrap with Pedro Munoz and Munoz caught him with a shot and knocked him out. So when you look at Garbrandt coming off of three straight knockout losses that's not typically a guy you want to pay $17 for in a fan to a player pool but I think he sees a favorable return to matchup here if you look at Garbrandt statistically nothing really pops off the charts because he's at 3.35 significant strikes per minute but you look at that's at 37% efficiency so you only get significant strikes per minute if you actually land them. Garbrandt's just throwing a ton he's not landing as much but the thing is he has a reputation for having some of the most power at Bantamweights it's either him or Peter Yon who's about to fight for the title he's getting a match up here with Rafael Sunsal a veteran who's 38 years old Sunsal's not exactly a very high accuracy striker he only lands 41% of the time he's sliding down in the rankings he's coming off of two straight losses I think this is a position UFC has put Cody Garbrandt in because Cody Garbrandt's the type of exciting fighter they would like to be in and around the title picture but if he were to get knocked out again on Saturday that's four straight knockout losses that's usually when you talk about a fighter perhaps in jeopardy of losing their contract altogether so there's big time pressure on Garbrandt but I think they put him in a position to succeed and normally I'd be scared of the submission skills of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu expert like Rafael Sunsal but Garbrandt's never been taken down inside the UFC he has excellent takedown defense as bad as his defense is on the feet his defense from takedowns is excellent and that's no surprise out of Team Alpha Male it's a striking heavy gym so he sees a lot of great strikers in that gym so they work on takedown defense I'd imagine a lot so I like Garbrandt and that spot at $17 another guy who's gonna make it two Burns family fights in a row he's the first card on this week his Gilbert's brother Herbert he faces Evan Dunham in the first fight of the card he's definitely not his brother on the feet yet but he did get a knockout in his UFC debut and he's built very similar to Gilbert Burns in that his MMA career mostly he's begun in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Gilbert was a world champion Herbert's that same type of grappler and so you look at his 5.77 submission attempts per match it's very obvious what Gilbert what Herbert excuse me is trying to do is his brother he still is at the point where he's leading on his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu heavily he's not gonna stand and engage in a boxing match like his brother Gilbert did last weekend and you look at that you look at Fandall Sportsbook it reflects that he's at plus 175 to submit Dunham outright I think he's in a good position to do that against the UFC veteran it's a guy certainly when you get a world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu guy in there first fight on the card a lot of momentum of course coming off of his brother's victory last weekend so that's really a great spot that I like Herbert Burns in to be able to submit his opponent the Sportsbook's backed that one up and then I wanna look somewhere else it's with Chase Hooper Chase Hooper the guy's fireworks okay he's only 20 years old so he's the youngest fighter on the UFC roster and he's not really big for 145 pounds yet he'll probably when his frame fails out he'll probably fight closer to 170 pounds but he's only 20 years old and he's still growing that muscle so he's really leaning on his grappling at this point in his career that's why you see the 3.83 submission attempts per match on his resume he scored a knockout win in his USC debut though and he gets Alex Casaris who has a reputation amongst MMA faithful as a very inconsistent fighter he feels like he's traded wins and losses his whole career he definitely hasn't alternated wins and losses here in his last six fights and he's been submitted seven times in his MMA career so I get a guy like Hooper who's coming in his main tool in his toolkit at this point is the submission and Casaris has given into that seven times he's susceptible to that on the ground I look at Hooper at only $16 really in that very mid-range tier I have a very clear path to a submission there with him as well so you can see we have these first round finishing potentials in this mid-range but you're not gonna be able to afford all of them if you're pairing them with Nunez and O'Malley so you have to pick very, very carefully on a lineup to lineup basis and your optimism around those fighters is reflected in their betting odds of Angel Sportsbook because if you get rid of the big three of Nunez, O'Malley and Menifield those three of Burns, Garbrand and Hooper are the next three with the best odds to win by knockout or submission so Fandals Sportsbook on the same page with you from that perspective I wanna talk to you about Garbrand quickly because you mentioned that Bennett Afunk has had some pretty high profile losses do you try to look for spots like that where you can buy low on a fighter who may have some stink on them or is that to you more of an indication that maybe the form is off and you wanna stay away? So the UFC matchmaking is very, it's not analytical or anything like that it's very stylistic it's really whatever Dana White's feeling at that point in time and what they can get the fighters to agree to at that money if anyone's paying attention to what's going on with John Jones right now he just can't, he doesn't feel like he's about to get paid that's why he doesn't wanna fight anybody so you know it's typically just I have to look at the matchup usually if you lose a fight you will see competition in your next fight that's at a lower caliber and that's what's happened with Garbrand and that he had the dealership on knockout got the rematch knocked out again saw weaker opponent with Munez Munoz knocked out again and so he sees an even weaker opponent this time so I typically do look to kind of buy low on some guys that have had a tough bout about that I think we talked about Edson Barbosa a few of those he was on a murderous row against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor and Justin Gaichi and all of these huge names he's a good fighter he's just been in there against the best that anywhere in any humans his size on the planet have had to offer right so I do buy a lot on fighters like Garbrand if they finally get up put in a position where they can kind of stabilize their ranking no doubt Cody Garbrand is still a very high caliber fire and he's lost to a lot of great strikers like TJ Dilashon's maybe the best Phantom weight ever so it's certainly not a huge stain on the resume and a reason why I'm targeting him for sure okay so Garbrand is $17 on a fan duel for Saturday's slate all right awesome let's put it all together we've kind of gone tier by tier already but let's wrap things up here get your final your conviction for each tier on fan duel for Saturday starting off with the studs talked about Nunez and O'Malley are they definitively the top two studs for you on this card? Absolutely I'll be mixing Nunez and O'Malley pretty evenly between my MVP slots and you know I think I'll sprinkle in some of those submission attempt potential you have Herber Burns at $18 some other things where like we did last week with Jamal Hill maybe you tried to differentiate and get a finish in your MVP slot maybe pick up a little bit on the field who doesn't use that finish in their MVP slot but I'm mostly building around Nunez and O'Malley there I will stack them together in quite a few lineups as well as I will separate them just so I can get some access to some of these other fighters that we've talked about Metafield to me I look at the method of victory props I feel like Metafield has the most obvious path to defeat which is not something we talk about a lot but I see the hole there where it's potential that Devin Clark is just a wrestler that he's never seen before and a guy that could really make him struggle so if I have this many confident favorites that can score points easily I want the most sure bet and for me that's Amanda Nunez number one and then a little bit behind to Sean O'Malley number two. Okay so perfect that's the default roster construction potentially trying to get two of those fighters but in general those are gonna be your two MVP's Amanda Nunez and Sean O'Malley let's move now to the mid-range a tier again like we said haven't talked a whole lot about for this podcast did get some thoughts on fighters who could finish who are you looking at and who are you ranking highest in the middle tier on fan duo for this late? Right so we'll have to force rank a little bit between some of the guys we talked about a few minutes ago with finishing potential I think first for me is Herbert Burns I think he sees the weakest opponent and has the most clear stylistic path to victory with his submission attempts there 5.77 submissions per match is huge that might be one of the best marks in all of UFC right there with Crone Gracie who fights at 155 pounds as well so I think one of the I think that's the most obvious path to victory there and then I look at a guy like Chase Hooper coming off a knockout in his UFC debut he sees an inconsistent veteran he's got multiple tools in his toolkit he could do a lot of different things well you know he was grounded pounding with elbows and that's how he won his UFC debut against Daniel Timur so he has a lot of different tools as well I trust Hooper's fight IQ too so I think they would not put a prospect that's been this popular this early in a spot where he was going to fall through this early I feel pretty confident with Hooper there and then we go back to Cody Garbrandt I like buying low on Garbrandt a guy who who if I'm in fantasy and I'm hunting for a guy who wants a knockout if Cody Garbrandt wants a knockout more than I do you know that's he doesn't want to go to a decision he almost would view that as a loss if he doesn't if he's not able to knock out he's got 11 wins at Bantamweight nine by knockout I love Garbrandt in that spot to kind of rebound and get back on track at 135 and the guy we haven't talked about I like Neil Magni as well he's $18 he looked outstanding in his debut at 170 pounds against Yee John Lean he's fought skinnier before but I think the added weight really made him take advantage of his length that he has with his limbs the only concern there as we'll talk about in the value play slate is I think there's a chance of a decision there just because he's been paced down a little bit by the opponent Anthony Rocco Martin that he's been drawn but Magni is a guy that I'm buying certainly in as many formats as I can get but he's below the other ones just because I don't think the finished potential might be there against Martin who's a little bit more durable Okay so Anthony Rocco Martin $14 we discussed him Maki Patolo and Brian Kelliher all potential value plays whose names have been floated but when it all comes down to it who are you gonna be your favorite value plays for Saturday night? Yep and I think here to do justice for the people listening is let me first mention the booby traps because we're all gonna be looking for We're gonna be looking for some value plays down in this area to fit some of these studs in I would avoid a guy like UCA Formiga you look at him he's a defensive striker maybe as notable a defensive striker as there is in UFC 1.5 significant strikes per minute as a very very low volume that's lower than Tyrone Woodley who we just saw on Saturday do virtually nothing for five rounds I would avoid him even with the win bonus in play because even if you get the win bonus if there's only 15 points on volume alone 35 points doesn't do a lot for you on FanDuel anyway and it's why I'm not too hot on Alex Perez at $18 even though I think he's got a great chance to win that fight outright and then I look at Anthony Rocco Martin he's gone to three straight decisions 2.70 strikes per minute same deal where he just doesn't present the same type of volume upside in this area where I could see him grinding out a decision win but it may feel like a loss when you look at it in your FanDuel lineup even if you get the win bonus so where I'm particularly primarily going is I'm looking at Maki Patolo I think he's got a clear path to victory on the feet he's at plus 130 doesn't have bad odds to win the fight outright and he has that volume and finish upside as well I look at a guy like Brian Kellerher I'm going back to the well I had him in my helper in his last card ended up with the knockout win Kellerher's just a guy who's game he can do everything equally well wrestling, submissions, takedowns I like his chance to find a path to victory here but he could also find himself in a war with Cody Stamin where if it goes to a decision when he loses you're not going to feel bad about how you spent your $12 there on Brian Kellerher from how many strikes he threw and he's got a chin to absorb what's coming back his way and just how I've set the fork in the road I'll have quite a bit of Devin Clark as well just because I see that path to victory I have to spend money somewhere down here and at $11 he really frees up a lot of options for me to get back into that tier where I'm looking at guys who can finish their fight so if you have to pick I certainly prefer that over Felicia Spencer who's a little bit higher if I don't think she can secure her win bonus I don't feel comfortable spending the $13 on just volume Well the other two is like in theory Felicia Spencer gets you five rounds but with the odds of Nunez finishing by knock at her submission early is it really going to be five rounds? Right and something else to talk about is if Felicia Spencer were to win this fight outright and shock all of us and ruin all those people that took advantage of that odds boost on Fandull Sportsbook it would probably be some submission where the five round volume wouldn't come into play anyway Spencer's submission artist she's finished six of her eight wins by submission she's got a knockout in her last fight but that's really what she's trying to do in there so she's not even really trying to take advantage of the five round volume anyway I would be very, very, very stunned if she were able to outbox Amanda Nunez for five rounds and for that reason I just can't see it happening One other thing about Brian Kelliher that is in your favor is that if you look at Cody Staman's odds on Fandull Sportsbook of win via knockout or submission it's plus 420 which is the longest of any favorites on this entire card so basically what they're telling you is that fight's gonna go to a decision and what you're saying is that Kelliher can get enough volume to pay off even if he doesn't get the 20 points for win is that am I interpreting you correctly? I think those odds are reflective of the respect for Kelliher's chin you know he's only been finished once in his MMA career as well as it's also respect for the 135 pound weight class these guys are really 135 pounders they're just not cutting weight so the fight's taking place at 145 pounds but these are smaller guys that usually fight at 135 pounds we talked last week about the direct correlation between the size of the fighters and how often the fight finishes versus going to a decision that's certainly a play there as well where you have essentially a bantam weight fight with the highest odds to not finish on the card All right Austin, any final thoughts for you before we close up shot for this late? We didn't even get to talk about my favorite fight that I'm actually looking forward to watching most as a fan it's Algermaine Sterling and Cody Sandhagen is what is essentially a title elimination fight so it's really a round robin tournament a four at bantam weight right now Peter Yan and Jose Aldo are expected to fight for the title these guys the winner of this fight on Saturday will probably get the next title shot after that takes place we saw Henry Sohoot over a tire that's kind of what set up this cool little tournament I really am looking so forward to this fight and I actually could see it turning in one of those fights that has some volume to it I prefer the Algermaine Sterling side because you look at Sandhagen he's very much a stand-up striker Sterling will have length and reach advantages as well and he's got wrestling and submission in his toolkit so I kind of lean Sterling in that fight and what is essentially a pick-up right now on Fandall Sportsbook should be an outstanding fight and a contender for fight of the night but I've got too many areas where I feel like I've got knockouts and finishes on the radar that we didn't even get to discuss it so a little dessert there for everyone so that we can preview a fun fight card Even if you're not getting exposure in DFS you can still enjoy, you can still have some fun watching hopefully what will be a good fight so Austin, I hope that the card lives up to your expectations for it I hope that you have a lot of fun with it and I want to thank you for coming on here again today Absolutely Jim, my pleasure we have another great fun race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend as well so you and I aren't doing too bad for not having too many major sports around we've been able to bite our time a little bit so it's been a lot of fun It'll be hard to live up to Bristol I will say that That's right, that was crazy That was awesome Yep, but other than that, we're doing great If the issue with NASCAR is that it's hard to live up to a great race that just happened, we're doing all right That is for sure Make sure you follow Austin on Twitter at Aswayne3 and check out his coverage of UFC and NASCAR DFS at numberfire.com coming up later this week I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast Another podcast coming later this week to preview that race at Atlanta most likely on Thursday I believe at 10 a.m. we'll be recording that so it'll be up on YouTube the FanDuel YouTube page where you can also find video coverage of this and video coverage of the NASCAR podcast as well so make sure you subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube page to get all these videos as they go up Speaking to the videos, big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today and putting those up on FanDuel the FanDuel YouTube page and the FanDuel Twitter account Thank you, Cal, as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in hopefully you can have fun with this card on Saturday enjoy some sporting events just sit back and relax and hopefully win some money while you're at it This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire