 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, guys of the Chapman Tiger Technicians Hour on this, oh I didn't mention the date when I did the update on this 8th, the Tuesday, 8th of February. We're looking at the Dow up 68 was up a lot more earlier on, was down a little bit, just mixed market. 35,162, I see this is a selectivity we've been talking about. We're looking at the Dow holding a lot better than some of the other indices. It has the right mix, but it isn't the right mix in the sense that you're looking at the Dow breaking to a leg C above 35,679 not yet, sort of stuck in a range right now. But if you look at the S&P, S&P 500 down 8 at 4,475. So for the Dow you've got this huge thing with Amgen. Amgen earnings come out and it's a big buy-take company, Amgen 234.33 up 10.8, almost 5% in leg D in the daily chart. It was a very complex Chapman wave notation earlier on. I did this over the weekend, I forgot to put this in, I saw it but I didn't do it. A lot of these notations I do so that because we're all about education, just so that people who are looking at the chart can see there's stuff that I see all the time. But here it is articulated in such a way that it makes sense. The dreaded H, the lowercase H, can become a big U-shaped formation. If there's a price move above the arch high, of course there is a huge one right now. And this is leg D, but it's only a leg C in the weekly chart. Monthly chart says, yeah, yeah, nothing to see here. It should fail in about the 240, 242 area, but we'll see. So it is helping the Dow. Now what we're looking at is, within the context of the markets, as I said, the S&P, the Dow itself is up 0.25%. The S&P is down 0.20%, and we're looking at the QQQ down 0.5%, down 1.81%, if you want to look at something interesting, look at the ARKK. We haven't gone back into this. We had it just for a brief moment there, about a week or so ago. This is, if ever there's going to be a rebound in those extremely oversold stocks like a triple D, 3D systems, like Square, I don't know what they call it now. What do they call it? Block. Give me a break. Square was such a great name. Why change it to Block? That's a great name. Why change it to Alphabet? Facebook. It was Facebook. Why try to change it? I mean, I think it would matter. Give me a break. So that's my little grump. Look at Square still going down. And basically, it was a very, very good company. The chart is saying, well, it was a very good company. They have serious problems right now, obviously. Going from 290 back in August to today 100, I would say that getting cut by almost two thirds is a problem. So that's the issue that we have to look at over the next 6th, 3, 1, February the 8th. I was over the next four weeks. That's really the issue we're going to be looking at. How does it resolve itself, these downside moves, major downside moves in some of these absolute... I mean, here's a start that went from under 50 back in 2020, actually 30 to 23. Goes all the way to 289. Of course, there's got to be some kind of a pullback, but a pullback like this. This is where we're looking at. All right, let's go on. We've got the IWM, the Russell 2000. Now it's up 91 cents at 227. It's trying to find some support. It's trying to say, hey, don't rule me out. I'm not the QQQ. I'm not the NDX100. I'm something completely different. I'm the small caps. And in the small caps, the awesome great companies is just not being recognized right now. But it is a monthly PD. We've got an under-the-14 period moving average sell signal in the monthly chart. Let's see what happens by the end of the month. All right, let's keep going. We're looking at... I wanted to show you this. The SMH is 271 down a dollar. Stuck, it looks very much like any of those charts that I showed. I'm going to show a whole bunch of charts. Now I'm trying to get this done. Great questions from Matt, Jason. Just a bunch of people sent in some questions. A lot of them overlapped. I haven't even heard about some of the stocks in here. They were overlapping and leaf as well. And Boris, I'll be there in a moment. So let's just finish this up. We're looking at the SMHs. Just stuck at the lower end of the range. Sitting on the 200-period exponential moving average. They were the winners. I think the semiconductor is telling us that this market correction is still ongoing. And we've got to be really careful. Now let's go to gold. Gold is up three. It's actually... It's running quite well. The reason why for subscribers, I want you to add a whole list ready of going into the gold sector. I still think we're more in a trading band. If you look at the rectangle over here, then anything else. Let's give it a day. If it's going to move, it's going to move and try to go back to the 1850, 1860 area. Let's see what happens. And if it does that, you're looking at... Let me just just solve it quickly. Solver is acting quite nicely today. 2314, up .06. It needs to get to 23... I'd say 2345, 2350. Then all of a sudden the magnitude of the 200-period moving average of 2394 comes into focus. But if the dollar, the X, Y, is able to find some stability going back into its rectangle into the 9580s, instead of being a 9560 right now, 8580 to 9610. In that area it says, uh-oh, dollars is going to hold okay. And that means that gold will hold okay. They're just going to go back into their sideways trading band. But if the dollar starts to slide under 95, any day that it closes under 95 for the next week, that's a serious sign for the dollar. Just EUR, USD, let's do that. You're pulling back from that. I have to call that a peak A. But we started to see the technicals quite good. 85% in the stochastic. I'm watching... This is a very complex time for these different currencies, et cetera. Let's go on to crude oil. Crude oil right now is down 1.80 to 1.57 peak D. Went to the inside track repellent zone. Now sitting on the nine period, the green moving average right there, 90 MA. If it breaks 87.74 is next. If it closes, if the crude oil in the next week has even just one close under 80, 85, let's call it 85. That's four points low, four and a half points low. That will say it's more or less a short term pullback in crude oil. It's going to be here for a little while longer. So let's just do this. We want to go to the TLT. Elisabeth, Elisabeth. 138 down 1.10. Look at that dreaded H pattern. And look at the cup formation double top. 152.72. Going to 152.99. No, can't be. That's impossible. Going to 151.79. Let me just double check that. One. It has to be 54. 155.12. Sorry, I didn't get that one. 155.12. 155.12. I think that was 64. I'll have to change it. Yeah. What a pullback. What a pullback. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. 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At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. At 727-873-7618 I just wanted to show this. This is the one minute E-mini. Look at the beautiful left side, right side, price, time match, and the cup formation. And look at the way the wreck to how important wrecked angles are. Let me just get this, make this cup so you can see it right there. We missed it by about 25 cents, but we've still got one bar to go. Not bad, huh? That's a peak. E should have a little bit of a rest. Now, let's get back to our story. And our story says that bonds, look at the rectangle. At some point, there should be an attempt to get back to the 144 level, but that's going to get harder and harder because the monthly chart has got the pattern that I call the dreaded H of a lowercase H. What does that mean? It means I just move over here. I click, I slide across, and this is the pattern we're looking at. You've got three distinct trajectories in charts. Straight up, straight down, one. Cup formation, arch formation. You can mix one and two and one and three on the way down. If you take out the left side low, you can go quite a lot lower. You can get an expansion of the arch from the arch high to the base down again. You can even get the full complement to the downside and the cup formation with a straight line up. That's the inverse Y. You take out the left side high, you can go much high. You can even have the pattern that I call the, there it is. This is the falling X where you go up. You make lower highs and much lower lows and you find support, break out, and you try to head back to the left side high, either in a V or a cup shape formation. All right, so where are we here? This is the inverse. This is the dreaded H failure right here. Gones made a high of 179.17 in the TLT on the 20th, on the, on March, 2020. That's when the Dow made its low and plunges down to this low of one. I think it was 134 something. He said 135. Well, I should have typed it in. 133.19. All right here, 133.19. And look what happens. Nice move to the upside. And then it starts to fail. And in the dreaded H pattern, if you fail to the peak A, not you, but the charger training, peak A or peak B will watch out because you can have a real tumble down to the left side low. That's bonds. So I had a discussion just about an hour ago with one of our Tigers, just being a good friend who took my course, oh, back in 2005 or similar something. And I remember saying, oh, this is in the chaff way. This is where we're about to break out. This is where we should get the sharpest move, go to leg D. And he said, oh, yeah. And Fibonaut in an idiot wave. And he started discussing it. And he turns out to be, and he wasn't, this wasn't his profession, but he turned out to be an idiot wave, not just enthusiast, but an expert. He had met Prakta. He had discussed who was the person who was supposed to write the book, and then said he wouldn't. So Prakta wrote the book. Anyway, and he's met, he had met all the greats in the business. And he started talking about the idiot wave and we became really good friends. I call him my idiot wave expert. He's talking about this in a very negative way with bonds. And we both looked at J and K, which is the junk bond. Spider went to a peak D in the monthly chart, pulling back quite sharply here. This is the spider, Barclays, high yield bond ETF or fund. And look at this. I mean, this is just not a look. It makes a peak E in the arch formation of the weekly chart. And it's just plummeting. Yes, it's getting close to an area where it should find some support. It doesn't hold. They said 104.52. The other one was HYG. I believe it is high grade. What is this? The eye shares, the eye boxes, high yield. Look at that. It went only to a peak C. I believe I wanted to do this in greater detail. 88.10, to 88.10, to 88.16, and then yeah, this only went to a peak C and then failed. That could have been a double top like the J and K, but HYG trading from a high in the 88s down to 83 right now. Five points in a bond. I mean, that is... So this is something you've got to watch. Look at the TLT in relation to TLT. See the dreaded H? Look at the TBT. That's the inverse Y formation. Look at this. A whole bunch of them. Right here. Here's another one. Right there. Breakout. Boom. Now it's in leg C. So I wanted to do that. So CVX, CVX, peak E right now. It looks like the crude oil, right? A little toppy, but fantastic. Technical so far. Leg D in the monthly. Leg D in the weekly chart. Look at CVS. I want you to show you how fascinating it is that we've got healthcare, the drug stores, making a new all-time high, a new high in this cup formation. This is like the dreaded H upside down. Look at this huge cup formation. Leg E, gamma peak E at 113.65. This CVS drug store health call. In July of 2015, plunges to 51.77. This is in April of 2019. And then works its way in a stair step move to this leg E. Where? 110.44. 113.65 was the previous high. I think we're going to get close. And then we might start to see a consolidation. I wanted to show you chart patterns. The reason is, now we're going to go to the questions. I'm going to go to Matt first. So Matt wanted to know, let me just, I've got the more, MDB. MDB. Now, most of these, I've either seen the symbol but didn't know what it was. Let me just put this, a leg C in CVS and then we'll get out of it. So MDB, here we go. So you see these patterns where look at the doji candle high in the weekly chart of MDB, MongoDB, cloud, crypto, social, new apps, et cetera. It's a peak D in the, in the weekly chart, a peak D in the monthly chart makes an all time high. Did I type that in? I forgot it. That was a peak G. Look at that double top. These double tops are amazing. My friend who does the Elliot calls them tweezers tops or bottoms. So 590 round number high. Did I know that? No, but I'm looking at it right now. Round number all time high. Isn't that incredible to make a round number at how many times have we seen it? Oh, the round number at CVX, Chevron 137 got taken out. Now, if it starts to pull back, that 117 becomes even more important. So here we go. So I would say that 590 down to 340. Let's see that. That's about a tooth. That's a big, big decline. And you see the way the 200 period moving average is holding here. So all I'm going to say is this, I think it's in the process of forming a base, but that base has to create the kind of low that becomes a much bigger buy signal to buy mode in the daily chart. But it has to take the weekly. For this, if I'm looking out, let's call it seven to eight months towards the end of the year. If I'm looking out that far, at some point, and it has to be fairly, I don't care where it goes to the downside, but on the upside, it's got to start trading in the 450 area. We're going to go through each one of these. 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So here's the lowercase H that goes to a lowercase mpath. Here's your first arch you're looking at a question came in for Nike. And here's your small H goes to a larger H, goes to a peak D now it's pulling back and what's really important about Nike and I agree with Dan in the Den that in a sense he uses this like a benchmark to what we're looking at. I follow Nike but I have other benchmarks but most importantly I am looking at the low that was made 139.56 is trading way above it at 142.74 down 240. If it takes that out it's going to be a signal both for Nike and the part of the Dow that says wash out because now we start to break key support levels in some visually important I say visually because it's in an area it's kind of the sports area the sports wear so I don't I call it peripheral although it could be quite a big number but I still think it's peripheral to overall when you're looking at American Express as part or Amgen as part of the Dow but it is important so that's really what I'm looking at there's a real good chance that it's going to test 139 you better be careful holding it at that level because if it breaks that that makes the monthly much weaker and I've got a cell mode in dating weekly at Nike and it will be a cell signal in the monthly chart. Now let's get back to our story here a couple of questions came in I'll try to get those in a moment but let me just first do this yeah so when the question was then about Halliburton and Devon right here that's the same pattern now this one is a little different because this extension so far because of the MACD in stochastic I'm calling it a G this is in the dating chart and the reason why I'm calling it a G and not an alternate count just yet is because the action in the MACD is such that it didn't show enough strength it's pulling back the stochastic is only at 80% it's starting to pull back I'm going to say if it breaks to a new recovery high absolutely there will be a leg C there's no other way I can count it and very positive but Devon energy look at this left side right side monthly chart a beautiful cup formation and beautiful from the higher 45-48 back somewhere like July of 2018 down to the low of 2020 G64 look at this it went all the way the number of bars to the left was equal to the number of bars on the right before it broke out and now it's in a leg D in the monthly chart Devon energy so I just want to do that because we are looking at chart patterns and I'm going to be showing chart patterns now that are almost the exact opposite so let's go back so D dog the next one D O D D O D D O G where did I put that I typed it on the chart not a good idea on Devon's chart it ain't a D dog it's doing very well yeah D dog coming up D dog is trading you see how it's the inverse so this is a much better looking chart data dog monitor infrastructure cloud cloud and databases I would I would say that this is holding in the monthly chart there's a almost like a Roman candle but it's in the middle there the weekly chart has gone from a doji candle high at about 200 what was it exactly let me just see I think it's 2 points 200 points something or we did a missed 200 199 68 I'd say that's pretty close to 200 199 68 0.68 and now look at this it's hells with a dreaded H it did almost a one-to-one a little more than a one-to-one to the downside this is a great leg A in the weekly chart a great leg A but make these horribles going to take ages for this to turn positive so casting is very weak 21% on balance one is quite good the nine went under the 14 so this is in a cell mode in the dating so in the monthly a cell mode in the weekly chart in the middle here the chart is holding very nicely this is a much better pattern than almost all the ones that we've seen that have pulled back so sharply and try to rally this is in a leg C this is the one I keep my eye on as the better one out of all the ones we're talking about the D dog D dog is wagging its tail it needs more it needs to get at 149 50 right now down three it needs very quickly I mean by Friday or Monday of this coming Monday holiday was it Monday holiday whatever it is early next week it's got to be trading the 165 if it does that I'd say this is a much better recovery vehicle than most of the other so there's now let's look at SNOW snow is a symbol and of course I typed it in the chart again it's one of those days I can tell SNS NOW there we go if the 200 period moving average snowflake and cloud data storage and analytics that all in the same area so this is a couple of people work in this area and they want to know about the chart look it stopped at the 200 period moving average which is just below the 50 period moving average a lot of resistance peak D in the month in the weekly chart making it a cell mode this is it was an IPO back in 2020 and it went from round about the 200s zoomed up to round number 420 round number high unbelievable how these things can do it's such a magic thing even today when it's electronic in the old days you can understand somebody saying just get me out at 420 rather than saying 420 and 3 eighths which we used to deal in eighths it's just easier to do then it goes from 420 down to 236 232.83 on the 28th of January I would say 232.83 from round number 420 that is serious so this needs a lot more work this is under intense selling pressure it's still IPO and it's still only a peak a second time round I think it has to build a base it doesn't have to break to a lower low but all I can say is if it closes at 300.88 right now I'm sorry 288.23 right now if it closes in the next 3 to 4 sessions any day closes under 275 that creates that arch formation so be careful this one is underperforming the next one is CFLT and I never this is one of those that I really I don't even remember seeing symbols I usually remember the symbols this one was an IPO back in was it June of last year what is that yeah June of last year and yeah I'm always looking at round numbers for IPO opens yep opens at 44 round number high drops to 42.31 pops to 57.99 and then comes all the way back to the low 37.71 screams to 94.97 so 94.97 in leg B and then a peak B 94.97 and then it gives it up and goes back to the 50 area so this is a huge I mean almost a 50% decline confluent ink data infrastructure connect all application systems data layers in real-time so 50 service this is the one that when I read everything about it it seemed to me that this was one that can't a lot of upside potential I'll be back in a moment are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater Markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best 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don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV I'll just be back see you in a moment but I want to do everything today at the same time so zoom Pfizer and Moderna have all the same patterns and look at this this is the zoom video this is the Eiffel tower goes straight up to 588.84 with a 477 round number open in October of 2020 and now it's all the way back down to 138 this is zoom look at Pfizer the dreaded H pattern the one I was just talking about what am I doing there it is on the short term dreaded H pattern taking out the left side of the 24th failure pattern and what was the other one that we were looking at somebody with Moderna MRNA the same thing there look at that it's arching over there's the Eiffel tower just you got to be careful in this market there's certain areas there's a certain area we chasing a particular stock because we said this is the one this is the one for the breakout in the failure or COVID and the masks coming off and everybody going outside and yet we are chasing this darn thing I've been nailed that it was the perfect one and here it is getting away from us it's up 2.8% just today but we do have some that are working very well so let's go back I want to go back to our caller we've got our caller we are looking at oh there is Mark and Fort Collins Mark how are you sorry for you for the wait good battle how are you I'm good I rig finished a one to one to the upside that I got out of yesterday at 384 and I'm thinking about getting back in because it still hasn't made a leg D in the monthly what do you think when was the next buy point so this is why I'm looking yet so rig which is trans-ocean limited it's making let me just do this finish it up here A a grey A a grey B I believe grey B and then it goes to an F slash C so this is where I have to put it together with all the others in the same category so I think your timing is just fantastic that you got out now what I would have said to you about rig is the choice would have been to take quite a bit off but to leave something because we don't know quite how this consolidation in the in the crude oil in the oil sector itself is going to be it might be that you get an initial quick sharp move down and then it makes the rectangle formation and slowly it doesn't have to go much higher but it could hold well so here's the issue for you the weekly chart is saying this is one of the weaker ones in the oil sector it hasn't been so far but in the weekly and monthly charts you can see it's basically in a rectangle formation it's even at the lower end so in this particular instance your exit was absolutely perfectly timed now what I would say is this that in I would this is one of those would be only going to know in about three days time we need to see whether crude oil actually makes its top whether the general market starts to move higher we want to see if the airlines and the IYT move higher it's saying haha crude oil coming down is going to be good for the transportation the different sectors there so it's kind of complex or you can make it real simple I want to make it real simple you are you completely out of ring yes okay so then the way I would do this is there's this whole area between it's a $3.49 there's this whole area between $3.60 and $3.20 that's kind of the support area well $0.20 on a $3 stock is actually a big percentage even today it's down only $0.22 that happens to be 5.81% so I'm going to say just a very small part of the portfolio of that you're designating to this oil server sector I would say to you why don't you put in a buy that you can just be thinking about at about the $200 river area is a $3.37 so just like just a time just so you got your foot in the door and you just put it in but within that let's monitor it because if it gets another sharp sell of tomorrow it could even go $3.337 so I'm going to say have it as a mental I wouldn't put it in as a physical entry $3.37 but that's kind of the area that if it gets close to it and it holds for about an hour and a half maybe that's where you just want to step in and then say to yourself okay now I'm going to wait and I'll tell you why I want you to wait because the $200 moving average is really important you can see the resistance and now it should be support but the Whitney chart has the same thing at $3.35 as the 9 and 14 period moving averages are so close together if it starts to trade under if it goes to $3.20 I'm going to say hold off and then I'm also going to recommend on the next buy that you don't I know at $3.49 it's great to have something that really moves well for percentage gains but I'm going to say this the next move might be the one that doesn't have rig participating it might be very selective but it might be a higher priced one so $3.38 just in that area if it just stops around there just a little nibble but that's not really a position it's just a feeler it's like a little barometer for you hope that helps you yeah thank you okay and I'll be wrong it closes above $3.68 then I'll say you know what crude oil is going to make a high level consolidation this isn't the big move down and that's another way to that's the reason why I just said I would have taken most of it often kept a little bit even though I had a feeling it would go down and it did go down but that's another way to play it because if it rallies from here it's going to say whoops we're not quite ready for the bigger move to the downside hope I'm going to do this a couple of times over this week because this is the sector that's really important going into 2022 later on I mean just for the moment I'm going to include sales force which is kind of in a way similar in that it's cloud but that's about it because it's having a terrible move from the market so I'm going to do this a couple of times over this week it's having a terrible move from the high that was made back at 311.76 with 310 round number open on the 9th of November and yet it is trading at 240 and this is telling us that the sector, the data sector itself is kind of under pressure and that's the reason why I'm saying be selective here you can be long you can look at the IAI the brokerage area I spoke about this for weeks now look at this I see closer to the highs why would that be in the brokerage area when if this is kind of a full recession you'd always see the brokers at the low that's for a very good reason I'll discuss that tomorrow in the meantime back at the ranch the next one is HCP HCP is Hashi corporation defined infrastructure as code to test security and low trust environment so it's database as well but it has a little bit different bias also an IPO just got smashed from the 90 area down to the 40s and now it's trading at 70 this one I need more time now I do want data funnily enough I need data to say there is a bias to the upside and that bias says that at 70.50 it's not going to just move higher but it's going to snap into the 81 into the 81s with the 200 averages as it and if this one can do it sooner it says you know what maybe they're in the environment now that says with the security part of it in a low trust environment maybe people are going to go towards this I'll be back in a moment sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's youtube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment market opens until the closing bell 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