 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Only two weeks left in the 2023 regular season, but they are gonna be big ones and it begins this week week 17 Has got a lot of really fun games on tap and we've got some big matchups in the NFC south and the NFC north We're gonna break down those key matchups outline where Dr. Ed Fang is seeing value based on his numbers and get you ready For should be a fun week 17 in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power bank at week 17 is coming in And is going to be a glorious one. How you doing today? I'm doing fantastic looking forward to so many these games Detroit at At Dallas we got Miami and Baltimore, so it's gonna be awesome awesome It really is and like you said on yesterday's show We're talking about the college football playoffs semi-finals We got good football Saturday through Monday with key important games across the board If you want to find that preview of the college football playoffs semi-finals check out the covering the spread podcast You can also find that show over on the Fandall YouTube page and on a fan duel TV plus also if you want a Thursday football Preview Tom Vecchio has you covered prime time Tom here in the covering the spread podcast feed breaking down his hair props for jets versus Brouts also bonus episode Tom with you tomorrow Friday morning breaking down his thoughts on the Vikings and the Packers That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on Fandall TV plus later on Score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sports book right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more so visit Fandall a kickoff the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present in select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas dark casino LLC first online real-money wager only $5 pregame moneyline wager required $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now will travel bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler over some fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 188-789-7777 Over the ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800 522 4700 visit ksgambler.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit md. Gimmie health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800 522 1-800 4700 Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or clay hundred three two seven fifty fifty four twenty four seven supporter Massachusetts or call 1-800 770 open Y or text open Y in New York Now Ed we're gonna dig in and talk about those games in just one second The first one talk about more of a broad topic here because on Monday night We saw the Ravens obliterate the 49ers and they're a clear contender the Niners I would still say very good those two teams are the top two teams and We have this Ravens dolphins match of coming up on Sundays I kind of want to talk about that in a different way versus talking about the actual game But talking about who that third ranked team in the NFL is I think it's got to be 49ers up there Ravens up there as a top two teams and then the dolphins are leasing Consideration for number three. I wouldn't put them there personally, but I wanted to ask you based on what your number say Who do you have is that third ranked team in the NFL right now? Right, I was surprised by the answer to this when you just look at the data based on this year Kansas City's third. Okay, so they've had their troubles recently Obviously, there's really no excuse for losing to a raiders team Although, I don't know what I don't know what Pierce is doing with that defense But it doesn't really seem like it's the unit that it was at the beginning of the year now Let's break this down when you look at what I started the power rank as my team rankings margin victory Adjusted for strength to schedule Kansas City is not looking great. They are let's see They are They are okay. Well, I mean, they're not terrible. They're fifth in the NFL But they're three points better than NFL average. So that's that's not particularly good If you only use this margin of victory type numbers, they're seven points worse in Baltimore Probably a little bit too too much. So maybe not with the way the markets the most recent performance, but When you look at some of the underlying passing metrics, they they do a lot better. So for passing success rate You just for both offense and defense You know, they're second behind only Baltimore in my numbers right now There's still, you know, it obviously doesn't look good. The turnovers have been a problem. Obviously and this happens I mean, this was a problem for them two years ago, too I'm not mistaken, right and then everything was very good last year. The turnovers have been an issue But I mean, there's still a lot of good underlying fundamentals there We talked all year about how the defense has been really good. It continues to be good Las Vegas didn't do anything They had those two defensive touchdowns. So a little bit surprising, you know I got Kansas City is the third best team ahead of Miami and Buffalo So I'm curious What does that do for you as far as futures right now if we're looking at the ASC conference odds over at Fandall Sportsbook The Arabians obviously do lead the way they are plus 185 right now. The Dolphins are plus 330 Then you get to the chiefs at four to one the bills are after them at five to one but of course their path here is pretty tough because Likely going to be a wildcard team. There's still a path them to win the ASC East And it's not a crazy path by any means No, I I've got I've got that ticket. So like, you know, I'm hoping that does happen But like when you look at that Do you think this is a good by low spot in the chiefs or as a market still in this in this realm? properly valuing them Well, I haven't run my numbers through the unabated NFL simulator But I would guess that I don't know four to one sounds decent You know, I mean, I'm certainly gonna have them raided ahead of Miami and Buffalo because their pieces and priors is still pretty Pretty good as well. So yeah, so definitely potentially some value there. Yeah. So when I look at my numbers I actually have Buffalo next as being the next best team and that's not thinking about Conference odds because obviously it's a very different dynamic talking about them going on the road and stuff like that But Buffalo actually the third-ranked team overall for me behind the Niners and the Ravens They are in the same tier as Dallas and a bit above Miami. So like it's not a huge separation But I still think that we want to be in on Buffalo now personally, I've found this to be I Do that ASC East ticket that I talked about before but I think with it where things stand right now I'm more interested in buying them like Individual games the the market for them this week has moved enough. They're 13 and a half against the Patriots I think that's appropriate. It was a bit like earlier, but I think it's now proper. I I feel like it's a situation where I want to keep buying them an individual games versus the futures market those and When you look at the bills, where do they come in relative to the cheese as you were talking about before? Yeah, I mean, they're a top-five team. Yeah, let's see. I actually just pulled them up So in my readings, they are fourth right now. So yeah, I mean, they're definitely a top-five team We talked about how turnovers have been a problem for them as well And you know, I mean when you when you have a bad stretch of turnovers, it's it's not You know, it's not likely to continue, right, especially for You know, I think Josh Allen is pretty good at not putting the ball in dangerous positions and in terms of turnovers Definitely had the bad side of luck this season. So yeah, I mean, I like Buffalo as well Yeah, especially this year Allen. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, and they have a path to winning the division, right? I mean, oh, yeah, more beats Miami and then they beat Miami next week. Correct. Easy peasy, right? Easy peasy. I hope so at least personally looking for easy peasy as far as I mean The Ravens and the bills will be favored in both games, right? Actually, it's probably in Miami. It's in Miami So I think 50 50 game. Yeah I think waddle will probably miss that game too if I had to guess So it'll be interesting to see what the What the line will be for that game I want to see if annual has a look ahead up for that one they do they had the dolphins minus one and a half right now So slight edge towards Miami, but not a big one by any means Right, I think I got it. Yeah, I'm gonna have let's see. I'm gonna have Buffalo favored I Might not have them say I might be pretty in line with market on that one personally, but Because I have 1.8 for home field Buffalo a bit better than Miami. I think it actually will be pretty well down great for waddle might be in there a bit So yeah, it'll be pretty tight, but I'm sure we'll talk about that game Next week we're looking forward to watching that game as well But let's dive into week 17 in these games here first Let's begin things with the Saturday night game between the Lions and the Cowboys right now at Fandall sports book The total is 52 and a half and this spread is tightened It was six and a half or six points is now four and a half points the Cowboys being favored here Obviously the Cowboys Has seen like a totally different team and when they've been at home this year versus on the road But they're now facing Pretty tough opponent as they move back home. So how do you see this game playing out lions versus Cowboys? Right. I mean my numbers have Dallas by 3.7 points I have Dallas is a slightly better team. You put a little bit of home field advantage. I'm using 2.2 points there You know, you get a spread that's a little that's greater than three, but certainly not the six that fandall had this morning. I think the Detroit has a better pass offense by my numbers slightly Dallas is still pretty good on that side of the ball. Detroit Steve fences has not been good and that's why overall I would rate the lions a little bit worse than Dallas but overall, um, I was definitely finding value in In in Detroit plus six this morning another thing. I think it was a little bit under the radar at least well, maybe not if you read some of my stuff, but Jared golf is one of the best at not throwing interceptions He has a you know a 9.4 Percent bad ball rate compared to the NFL average of 11.7. I mean, that's just excellent and he's been one of the best Um, that means he's going to he's going to obviously interceptions are pretty random But he's going to tend to not throw interceptions. Dak on the other hand has been worse than NFL average he's been at 12.1 percent so This is actually not something that's in my numbers, but This is a pretty big profile game and it really should be in my numbers. Um The probability of and actually their past attempts are about the same. There's a lot. I think there's like 36 for both of them Um, that's kind of a significant edge in terms of potential turnovers for Detroit here Which would push this prediction probably under three if I did that properly So, um, yeah, I I like Detroit plus six. That's what I sent out to my members this morning Kind of surprised it moved so much in what two hours three hours since then but I guess that's the way the market moves Yeah, it was six as of this morning and then I think it was it moved to four and a half I never saw a five or a five and a half at all at fan dual least I had gone about an hour or so without checking and refreshing it was four and a half I didn't see it pass through either of those So it was a pretty significant move in a very short period of time The total also did come down to 52 and a half talked about this game on Tuesday on my end I like the under there at 53 and a half. I do still show value in the under 52 and a half I have at a 50.2 personally So still showing value on the under there at 53 is not a huge key number So I would still be willing to take under at 52 and a half personally and part of that was You talked about the passing offenses here at and talked about how Jared golf doesn't put the ball in harm's way things like that But also I think they're probably going to be able to move the ball in the ground Against the cowboys here, which they've shown a desire to do when they can And I think they'll be able to in this spot with how much the cowboys have struggled against the rush Here recently that's part of why I like the under think the the lions can move the ball in the ground Keep the clock moving And kind of drain that out So it sounds like we're both getting to a similar place just kind of a different route to get there You're liking the lion side of things here because they don't put the ball in harm's way I think the lions be able to move the football on the ground So I think that both Lends itself to having interest in the Detroit side here and even you know, I know it's shortened from six, but Four and a half's not a terrible number I wouldn't take it personally and I think that sounds like you'd be the same with your being at 3.7 But like we understand why the market has gone this way For sure. I definitely understand why the market has gone this way Actually, I had a question for you Tyron Smith and Taylor Decker the tackles for each team are both listed as questionable I presume you think Smith is a bigger loss potentially than than Decker Yeah, Decker's missed some time already this year and they've like the lions have been outside of frank rag now that they've not been able to overcome their center When he's been out, they've really struggled, uh, but their tackles, uh, they've had a lot of guard injuries, too They're one of the better teams that like getting around offensive line injuries I would say I think the dolphins are number one by a wide margin at that But the lions outside of when rag now has been out have been very good at that So I think that they'd be okay there. I think Decker, uh, Dan Campbell said on Wednesday that Decker should be good to go as well. I think Tyron Smith will play too But like it's a back injury for an older player Is he a hundred percent and Zach Martin's healthier now, too So I think I think they'll both be able to go But it doesn't hurt my under ticket if they can so, um I would say that that Smith is the bigger loss because the Cowboys have Definitely had pretty big fluctuations this year based on their offensive line. So yeah, I'd agree with that that question Alrighty, let's take a look at our second game here of this weekend It's a big one and the nsc So that is between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now at fandals sports book Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites total in this game is 42 and a half and And the Bucks are a weird team where they have been dependent on Moving the bomb third down the entire of the year and that's unsustainable. I feel okay saying that But they've now done it for 15 games. The sample keeps growing So can they do it one more time and lock up the nsc south in this game against the Saints? I mean, I I say no really I mean, we haven't been high on on this camp. I haven't been high on this Tampa Bay, uh offense All I this Tampa Bay team all year and they've really been on a two game heater When you look at what they've done the last two games against green bay and Jacksonville I mean, we're talking about 60 percent passing success rate against green bay We know that's not exactly a great unit 54 passing success rate against Jacksonville A unit that seems to be on the skids lately These are really outlier performances overall. I have Tampa Bay Exactly at NFL average when you look at passing success rate adjusted yards per pass attempts Mike Evans has been great. But otherwise, you know, on both sides of the ball This Tampa Bay team is kind of meh When you look at New Orleans, uh, you know, the unit that really sticks out is this defense, uh, you know, even without, um Marsh on ladder for the last couple weeks, you know, they ranked fifth in my adjusted passing success rate Paulson adebo has been fantastic That is going to be the best unit out on the field no matter what Happens with dare car and the offense there You know, my number is actually favor New Orleans in this game I definitely think there's value in taking them plus two and a half on a road in a very big game Uh, right now as you said the plus two and a half at vandal sports book is minus one ten For the saints here digging more into the early down stuff for the buccaneers I think that's kind of the big sticking point with this team is The fact that they don't Move the sticks early, uh, they're early down Passing numbers their league average on early downs when they're throwing when they're throwing the ball the problem is They run the ball at a heavier clip than most teams like their early down pass rate is lower than league average And they have for the second consecutive year One of the worst rushing offenses you could possibly concoct and so like if they were to decide we're just going to abandon the run entirely and Lean in fully on this passing offense I'd have a bit more faith in them But they haven't done that and they've got a defensive minded head coach who in the past has been And he's not calling offensive plays But he's had a skew towards being run heavy and these past two games against The Packers and the Jaguars the Jaguars game You can kind of excuse because they were up big early But like in that Packers game they had more early down runs than they did passes. So like The reason they've gone off is not because they suddenly decided to lean on Baker. I mean on this passing game It's just they've been hyper successful in the times they have so if you told me They are going to be pass heavy starting this week I'd be I'd be willing to like maybe consider them a minus two and a half But why would they change it if it's being successful? And the problem is it's I think it's like a false sense security so I this is a tampon bay minus 2.2 So I'm not on the New Orleans side like you are but like I don't think they can keep up what they're doing It's just very frustrating to watch them continue to Run the ball in early downs despite being terrible there and like I take a league average passing offense over a terrible rushing offense But I don't think that's going to change. So I think that a lean toward the saints here You know liking the saints is plus two and a half makes a ton of sense just because the bucks It's like they can't they can't keep getting away with this mean I just wish they would trust Baker a bit more and stop trying to run early downs Yeah, for sure. I mean, I don't know how much I trust Baker, but He's good enough to start in the nfl and that's yeah, that's pretty good And I would trust Baker over the you know third worst rushing offense at least like I might not trust Baker over You know every nfl quarterback But I trust him over early down runs in the back of a pretty bad interior offensive line right And they're in a good position right now. So we'll see how that goes exactly I like I want to watch Baker and the playoffs So like I hope that they win, but like they're a very frustrating team for sure Let's finish things off with this Sunday night football game between the Packers and the Vikings are right now at Fandle sports Book total is 44 and a half and the Vikings are favored by one and a half and big news today Was that Jared Hall will start for the Minnesota Vikings over Nick Mullins? And that's you know intriguing. It's a rookie guy a fifth round pick at a byu stuff like that And he's facing a Packers defense that has been awful this entire year But they're now facing a fifth round rookie. We can spin it the other way Who doesn't that teach a Hawkinson or Jordan Addison? So Who do you got coming out on this one Ed? I have no idea honestly. I mean, I assume that Nick Mullins is gonna play and I have Minnesota by about three Mullins is pretty interesting. Like if you take a look at my bad ball number is like, uh You know, it's a small sample size and I'm not sure I trust everything Um, but you know, he's got a respectable 12.4 percent bad ball rate the NFL average is 11.7 his pick rate is 7.4 Which is awful compared to 2.4. I think or 2.3. Whatever whatever it has been so Yeah, we'll see. I mean, I think when you watch him play, I kind of believe the 7.4 sometimes Right, right. Um, he has definitely put the ball in a lot of dangerous positions But when you know, he is actually close to Kirk Cousins when you look at my adjusted passing success rate He's better and yours for past attempts So he's doing some things, right? Um Probably an upgrade over Josh Dobbs like what, you know, if he hadn't thrown all those picks last week You know, he'd probably be starting right now. And now you're going with a rookie I really have no idea how to evaluate that rookie. I certainly can't do it quantitatively Right seems like I don't know. I mean, it seems like with a rookie quarterback that Green Bay should be favored here Can't really quantify that like I said, um You know, their their their offense has been about league average, which I think is pretty good given the turnover uh, first year starter there, so um, I don't know. I have nothing I I I don't really know how to How to really handicap this game, especially with with the jaren hall situation Yeah, it's definitely weird a hall, uh, was very old coming out of byu. I think he was 25 when he came out so Maybe that means he's more experienced, but it also means he was not good enough to go to the nfl until he was 25 years old and That to me is the biggest downside here. So fifth round guy who wasn't good enough like I mean hendon hooker was also pretty old But at least he was a third round pick as opposed to a fifth round pick and he was also A guy who was good when he was young whereas hall didn't really have that to the same extent so It's a lot of red flags here for the vikings before you even get to the hawkinson and addison injury So I do the packers fair by point six five here personally I took their money line of plus 110. We talked about that on tuesday This is before they announced that mollensley benched in favor of jaren hall. I still would Be okay with that now with the money line being at minus 106 now I don't think there's any value in the packer side anymore. So I wouldn't bet it now if you had not gotten it previously um But I still think that the movement there is proper The total is 44 and a half right now. I have a 42.9. So I did show value and is a 46 and a half It's come down enough where it's a slight value. You do get a win on 44 It's the key number But I think that the market has moved to a point where this game is a stay away from me now With where it is It sounds like you're kind of on the same page because hall is so much of an unknown and there's really no way to I guess quantitatively predict what to expect out of him For sure. I mean he does have the ultimate cheat code and jesson jefferson A guy that you can just kind of chuck the ball up to Uh, I don't know six times a single drive Happened at the end of the first half last week. Yeah, so, uh, yeah, I mean, how's that going to go? I mean that that's a that's a nice asset But you did mention that they'll be without adison and hawkinson and that matters Because you just triple team jesson jefferson Yeah, well, especially if you're starting cornerback gyro xander is suspended because he decided to Send himself out there for the coin toss last week without direction and nearly ruined the the coin toss as well, so It's a blessing for the packers that this is all happening When they are reeling on defense and facing a team with a player as good as justin jefferson That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned though a lot of other good stuff From the feed right now our college football class semifinal preview is posted breaking down michigan alabama in texas versus washington Got a lot of good recommendations from ed and that one yesterday And you could also find prime time tom for the third tonight game right now He could find it for the sunday night game tomorrow morning all right here in the covering the spread podcast beat ed What is going on for you over at the powering? I had kelly ford of k4gradings Dot com on the podcast we talked about the semifinal games We talked about his college football analytics really good conversation. Check that out on the football analytics show wherever you get Wherever you get your your podcasts and then yeah check out my free sports betting email newsletter If you're looking for action on any given weekend, this is the free service for you I do that in five no get saturday, so check that out at the powering dot com All right in the podcast again the football analytics show you can find ed on twitter at the power rank I'm on twitter at jim son as you can find me on threads at jim dot son As you can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research ed happy new year to you We'll talk to you once again next week and happy new year to all of you listening out there as well Have a happy safe and healthy weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week This has done covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network