 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. If you are brand new to the channel, welcome aboard. Thank you very much for spending some time with us. Like, subscribe, share with your friends in the continuous movement of technical analysis and unbiased approach to looking at the markets. Before we even get started about last week, I want to be the first one or very one of the first people it's early in the morning. So hopefully I'll be one of the first to wish all the fantastic moms, the great moms, the moms who are the pillars of the homes, the matriarchs of the homes that hold it down. They're the glue that everything that we love and treasure and respect and run through walls from a very happy and healthy Mother's Day. Every single day should be cherished and appreciated. But this is officially your day. So happy Mother's Day. All moms out there for you, trading moms out there and all you non-trading moms out there. Hope you have a wonderful, wonderful day. So God bless there. So let's talk about the tape. A lot of stuff, right? You had a lot of readings last week. Well, it feels like we always have a lot of readings last week. Both the CPI and PPI showed a slowdown, at least a slowdown in inflation, rates coming down a little bit especially from the previous year. CPI finally cracked the 5% area. We're down to 4.9% earth shattering. A lot of earnings continue to filter through. Concerns continue to be surrounded. The banks and the failure of banks and their ability to say solvent. And now, if that wasn't all, now we've been two weeks talking about the debt seal. Now before everybody goes crazy about the debt ceiling, years ago when I first heard about the debt ceiling, the way they were making it sound that the whole credit market, right? The whole credit market was going to freeze. Everything was going to be horrible and the world was going to end. So far in the 24 years that I've been trading, the debt ceiling has been rising every single time we come to this kind of fork in the road. And at the end of the day, it gets solved. So the idea that we're talking about this for 24 years, but they always raise the debt ceiling, so far they haven't done it. Is it possible they finally don't do it, the government shuts down and you won't be able to buy stamps? Maybe, right? Oh, what was me? How is our life going to change? Are you not going to get mail? Okay, right? Honestly, what's the big deal? And I know it's a big deal out there. I'm being sarcastic. But the point is, again, guys, don't overthink or don't dwell. This has been a conversation that's been going on for 24 years. So far, the government hasn't closed down for more than a week, so it's really not that big of a deal. But with all this stuff going on, and by the way, we're in the till last kind of inning, last couple of innings and earnings. With all this, you have a lot of volatility, right? All lot of volatility throughout the day. There's definitely stocks that are breaking out and looking great. There's definitely an argument that five stocks are keeping giving up the market. But at the end of the day, we are still at highs. We're still at 2023 highs. Nearly 0.4% rise in the NASDAQ this week. The Dow is now 1%, and the SPX fell about 0.3%. So the scoreboard really doesn't tell you, and really doesn't show you the aggressive nature of the intraday moves. But it's been like that now for a very, very long time. And if you are an active trader, especially in intraday cycles, you kind of know what we've been seeing now for weeks now. We've been seeing weakness at the open for about two, three hours. And then all of a sudden, there's like a rocket ship that's ignited, and next thing you know, we're just absolutely exploding green at some point in the day. And when you see that type of volatility, and then in the midst of that out of nowhere, even if the market is rising, then they pull the cues down a dollar and a half just because, right? Just because it's like 1.37 in the afternoon. It really is a volatile aggressive market. And when you're trading such an aggressive market, you have to approach it in that matter until, you know, until kind of the dynamics of this market change. Usually in a normal organic market, you probably have three, four hours in the morning to capture a trend, make sure your research confirms from the night before. This is a market that, yes, absolutely all that is true, but you have to take your money a little bit faster than normal. Because if you don't take your money, the reversals are just, just exaggerate to the point that it becomes scary. And we've seen so many stocks look like about the fall off the cliff, breaking down technically. And the next thing you know, if you don't take your money, they reverse course and close green in a day and buys versa. We've seen stocks, you know, showing a lot of strength earnings, this that the other thing you look an hour later, you know, they're down three, four percent. So it's a violent market. It's a proactive market. You have to kind of know what kind of sentiment you have and what kind of market structure you have going into the next day, because it's not just as simple as a setup, right? There's a lot of really good setups and that setup could be really, really strong. But at the end of the day, when you turn around, you say, Well, wait a minute, I don't understand the stock was so is going in my direction. How could it be against me now? Again, that's the whole point. Welcome to this market. And this is kind of where where you have to adjust or die. You can just sit there and complain, you know, once twice will trick you the third time. How many times can you punch in the face without actually moving? You have to continuously be proactive, take your money, especially if you're a break, if you're a break even trader, excuse me, if you're a brand new trader or just somebody that's accumulating, accumulating, trying to build up your account, just use that break even, right? Use that break even once the stock goes into your direction and you take cashflow. And this is something we've been harping on for years in the webinar. You know, once you get, you know, especially if you're a new trader, building up your account, you know, your reserves or everything in this business, that's your lifeline. It's kind of the more money you have, the, you know, the higher probability you're going to finally get to that aha moment before you expire the smaller account. Unfortunately, you don't have that luxury. So when you're in the phase of building, building, building, especially in a market like this, keep taking your money, right? Keep taking your money, 50 cents a dollar, right? Take some money. Obviously, keep a runner, use break even as you stop. But that's it. That is your max pain. And the point is, if you are continuously doing so, you know, it's very, very tough to kind of break those, you know, break those good habits. If you don't, right, if you kind of let's see, we'll see what the market has to do in store later, you're probably going to be upside down a lot of your positions because that type of market is not there right now. This is the type of market that's so aggressive that again, like I said, if you don't take your money, they're going to take it right back. So indexes again, I apologize, I'm getting all these, I'm getting all these defenders that are supposedly helping to protect my computer. They're annoying as hell is when you're trying to record something live. But then let this be my worst problem in the world. So going into this week, again, I'm looking at exactly the same type of market. Okay, you have to definitely be prepared on both sides of the market. There's a lot of stocks. And you we've been talking about them that are breaking out in technology, right? Amazon had a really, really strong breakout this week, really strong above this 106 level, cracked the 111 level, got above the one, well, didn't get above. This is the last one left, this 114 level. And now it's kind of consolidating. Google had a really, really strong week. Again, we've been talking about the option flow, both Google and Amazon all week before they started breaking out. You know, Google had a monster, monster breakout from this whole range going back to February the 7th. I mean, this is a monster, monster move. You have stocks that are breaking down as well. You have names that had crappy earnings that are just sitting there and starting to wait for the next leg down. I mean, look at TULO, right? And these are names I definitely like going into this week. But look at a chart on TULO, right? The longer it goes sideways, once it finally confirms the bottom range, it's going to implode. Look at Qualcomm, right? Again, here's a perfect, another perfect example. Stock broke down, right? It broke down on Friday and kind of came right back up. Again, I still think the stock goes lower. But these are the setups that look really, really good. Let me just give you guys a couple of names, kind of from both sides that I do think could be pretty, pretty good going into this week. Let me look at my notes here. Yeah, look at Airbnb. Congratulations for all you guys who caught Airbnb. And another perfect example of stocks breaking down. Look at Airbnb, took down this whole channel going back to February and just got absolutely taken apart on Friday. So you're going to have value on both sides of the market. The key is be prepared, right? Be prepared. This is not a trending market that could give you the luxury of a five, seven day move. This market sometimes will give you a 30, 40 cent trend, a 30, 40 minute trend, and then reverse just out of nowhere. Just look at Apple for a perfect example, right? Apple had this magnificent, magnificent run. And it's kind of unfortunate that the stock is a week and a half, two weeks into consolidation hasn't broken up yet. And now you can clearly see the top of the channel here where the stock needs to confirm. And now you have to bottom the range here again, be prepared for both sides of the market. You know, look at a name and I'll give you give you some upside names as well. Look at IMGN, right? Look at IMGN. Look how good this consolidation is. This is a consolidation of literally a week. It's still going sideways eventually. If this thing starts taking out the top of the channel, you're going to get a massive move. Look at a name like HLIT, right? HLIT had this really, really aggressive move up, right? Now it's consolidating. As they say it, it's flagging, right? It's flagging. Eventually, these things get above this flag, get above this upper Bollinger band, and this thing's going to scream as well. Look at a name like LegalZoom, by the way, right? Same thing. You have a lot of stocks that gap up. I think it's called a floating island. Is that what it's called? I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. Anyway, the point is it's gapping up. It's going sideways. And eventually, this thing's going to look to test the top of the range. So if you are trading both sides of the market and you put yourself in a situation that you say to yourself, hey, I know the market's crazy right now. I have to take my cash flow a little bit faster. That is going to be the narrative until it shows me that a range could extend or a trend could extend for more than 30 minutes, right? If that's the case, I have to continuously take money off the table and use Breakey as my stop because that is what the market is giving us. One name that is very, very interesting, right? So let's talk about Tesla for a second. So if somebody just looks at the chart, you're not going to really get a lot of sense of what's going on. You're staring around and saying, ah, the stock has been in a dead down trend. And it has been. If you look at the weekly chart of Tesla ever since it put in its high of 313 in September, it's just been a mess. So nobody's going to really look at the chart right now and say, this looks great. But a couple of that couple of things happened. A couple of things happened this week that were very, very important. Number one, stock first got above this 166 level and started going higher. Elon Musk then tweeted out that he hired a new CEO of Twitter. Obviously, that is a big deal because now his attention could be focused back on Tesla. So Tesla had a phenomenal, phenomenal run. If you look at Thursday going into Friday's session, so here is the news, right? We talked about the 7013 pivot. It was huge stock gaps up the next day goes to 77 and a half. And then there comes a rumor, right? Comes a rumor that now Tesla, Tesla, he's going to step down. So obviously, as you can imagine, the stock starts tanking. So then Elon Musk, somebody tweeted at him and they're like, hey, by the way, please tell me you're not stepping down as Tesla CEO. So he responded to them as well. I stepped down from Twitter so I can concentrate on Tesla. Usually a PR like that, right? Not a PR, but at least a statement like that directly from the horse's mouth would have the stock exploding back up, right? Because if the rumor was he stepping down is going lower. If he refutes the rumor and now the stock should be going high and it never did so. And if you look at the 60 minute view, right? If you look at the 60 minute view after he responded that, hey, I'm not, you know, I'm not, you know, I'm still the CEO and the stock didn't spike back. That's a big, big sign. I want to watch the bottom of the range here, guys. Okay. You know, this is where the stock broke out. So if the bottom of the range, and you can see it's going, it's going to, right now it's made a 14th. This bottom range started on May the 9th. So I want to watch this bottom range. The stock cannot rally back after everybody has some time to kind of digest the information that, hey, he's not stepping down from Tesla and the stock can't rally. I definitely want to watch this bottom channel because if it starts confirming the bottom channel, guys, look at the 60 minute view. I mean, look at the view here, right? Look at the view going all the way here, right? Sorry about that. Right over here, right? If it starts taking down this bottom channel, okay? This is below from 5.5. If it starts taking down this bottom channel here, there's a lot of room down. So if there is no price action that is defended based on refuting this rumor of him stepping down, and if it does, if it can't rally and starts cracking that bottom channel, I think we are set up for a very, very big premium potential. Again, we don't know if it's going to confirm. But as I said a couple of minutes ago, and I've been saying for years and years and years, don't we have to be prepared on both sides of the market? So that's how I'm kind of going into this week. I'm definitely prepared on both sides of the market. I'm watching for anything with aggressive option flow in the direction that I'm watching. That's set up deep. My formula is deep out of the money, short-term expiration with a technical green signal, or red signal, depending if you're looking to short the stock. And I think this is the type of week that if we could finally kind of omit the volatility, right, and just concentrate on the organic flow technically, I think we could go back to resuming really good natural trends. So once again, guys, I want to wish all the moms a very happy and healthy Mother's Day. Hope everybody is living their lives, living their best lives, with a smile on their face, and the best health possible. Guys, God bless. Happy Sunday. And for all you guys who are coming aboard next week, I look forward to working with you. See you in the webinar. Take care.