 now folks we got crude oil up about six percent at one oh nine fifty we're up as high as one twelve fifty one let's jump over to our man teddy cakes that you can reach steady folks every trading day at four x dash trading dash unlock dot com we talked to teddy every wednesday at forty past the hour. I've been waiting for this one teddy good morning man good morning how about the crude market today I don't know how about it man I haven't noticed it where are we teddy yeah quite a lot of money dollars and since our sunday night that's what we are rats on the the call that's been out there for longer than I can remember man quite a market quite a run up and you've been talking about a hundred dollar crude for a while and then we just blew through that remark so give us a little take on what you're looking at for crude now that we're sitting at one ten on teddy I think we definitely have well after last night's speech we know for sure now that the solidified bull rally in oil is not going to stop it's going to keep on going in a big way to like we blew through a hundred dollars I think you know I said after a hundred dollars maybe we have some stability you know because people we're not going to have a chance for people to check their pocketbooks and not buy gas to control this thing we're going up to one fifty and if these policies especially with the what's going on with the Ukraine keep continuing with the tone that we have right now we'll see over a hundred fifty dollars a barrel easily very very soon so and just what what tone is that I'm not really aware when you say that okay while you look at last night you put we know that in the last week we put all these sanctions on Russia we also announced our country in these other countries that any country that deals with Russia sanctions will be put on them correct I mean this is something that's been going on now for a week they've been speaking about this or dealing with the banks and what have you well we're in violation of what they all our own sanctions we're buying oil from Russia right there so until we change that tone and stop buying oil from Russia and turn our pumps back on this is not stopping we're we're paying for Putin's war right now okay so this is not going to stop oil will not go down until we start pumping you know and now you have china kicking up their heels japan's worried you know and they are there's already talked that japan wants us you know they're part of nato as well you know i mean they're part of this whole fight against you know china and russia supposedly what happens when china kicks up their hair the heels with taiwan you know are we gonna help give oil to japan will know they're gonna have to deal with russia where else they're gonna get it from you know the closest place they can get it from is there you know so i mean this this is going to continue to escalate you know and as far as the price of oil i can't even begin to see why it would not continue to go higher you know i mean there's nothing there's nothing set right now that would do that you know we would have to start turning our pumps you know that to tell the middle east to pump more which they are what's that going to do i mean it's not going to change things you know and as far as the sanctions uh... if you think that putin's not selling oil to other countries what he's selling it to us so he's still bringing in money you know and they don't deal in ruble so it doesn't matter that the rubles crashing you know i mean you have a commodity that you have i mean that's the strength of the dollar right now is there you know in the biggest the vulnerability we have now is oil is helping to keep the dollar strong also with our interest rate posture that's helping to keep it strong what happens if all of a sudden we did turn on the pumps and what have you and the price of oil correct collapses and gets back down to thirty bucks what does that do the u.s it's good for the consumer the dollar it could have a big impact on the dollar you know so then all of a sudden the dollar it starts to go down you know see right now we're in inflationary period dollar strong we can handle inflation to a degree what happens when you have inflation and then you have the devaluing dollar that's going to be very dangerous for our economy especially for markets yeah it's it's pretty remarkable everything going on right now uh... with the influences the variance uh... the volatility and and and crude showcasing it most men uh... talked about many times that's you know of all the things going back and i'm just thinking out loud today the the the oil trade might have been the best one going back to the covid lows man because you go from negative thirty forty bucks a barrel man and it's been basically a one-way trip up to a hundred and ten bucks i think we've all learned a lot right um... over the last two years about uh... you know unfortunately how the the world comes out of a pandemic man and we were all very wrong uh... on a lot of facts as we started this off uh... so jumping from crude we jumped to some of the other forex markets over in the world what are you looking at with man it's like i i i've never experienced a geopolitical issue like this in my lifetime uh... in terms of just uh... everything in play worldwide all the all the kind of players that are that are piling on it and how that's impacting some of the currencies would account some of the pairings that you're looking at most this week well this week i'm definitely looking for the yen the end i think is going to break out to the upside finally it's been chopping around now for the past few weeks but with especially with what's going on with these tensions i would expect them to start to break out to the upside pushing the one seventeen one eighteen barrier uh... if we do break out to that upside level that's a very good monthly and weekly on breakout area also to help maintain the bit the bullish trend everything that's going into play with higher oil and and also everything else is going on geopolitically this helps to slip keep the bull market in the u.s. dollar yen going so i would say by dip posture looking for higher move highs you know one twenty two is still on my on my radar uh... as far as the euro that's a different story the euro is not looking so hot right now i think that you're gonna start to see a continual erosion of the euro and starting to hit support more and more as this war goes on the swiss ironically you know we heard what they did yesterday as far as with the russian but freezing bank accounts and what have you and stuff like that uh... i i don't think that that's necessarily gonna be the biggest influence on their currency right now i think it has more to do with what's going on with the e you and then having to help support the e you during this uh... crisis which uh... i don't think is going to end anytime soon you know i mean here's the one thing about russian history have to remember on whether it's in the past hundred years even going back hundreds of years nothing with russia ends quickly just doesn't you know so there's a lot of there's a lot of momentum on their side right now we don't need to get into the points of the argument but the more you know i mean especially with nato you know the more we build up and these countries the more of a friction point we're coming to you know so it's hard to ask someone else to turn around and back down when you're getting in their face more and more you know so i mean this i think these tensions are going to continue to weigh on the euro now the british pound i'd be very careful with that one i still think that that's a neutral currency and has a potential especially oil continues to rally there's a good chance that you'll see the british pound rally actually you know so there's a big divergence going on in the currencies and i would also look at the australian dollar in the new zealand dollar to continue to go to the upside i think that they've rounded out a bottom i don't think that i mean i don't want to call a bottom but right now with all the influences and especially with inflation and commodity prices as australia comes back online starts delivering more and more especially to china which is going to be consuming again at a rapid rate these are things they're going to help with their currency so that's why i'm very leery of what's going to happen with the u.s. dollar over the course of the next year i think it's going to stay strong in the short run but we're starting to lose strength versus some of the major currencies so if we do have a bottoming out period with australian dollar per se and also the pound those go against us dollars can get hit really hard well teddy we're going to talk to you in a week man and uh... who knows where oil is going to be by that point man but listen we appreciate the conversation as always man and i look forward to talking the next wednesday teddy alright take care of time you to have a great week