 It's a good day to talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's Tiger Forex Report under the newsletter page at tfnn.com. It comes with a great webinar, Teddy did. You get it for a month, $97. You don't like it, you cancel it. I'm telling you, you'll get an education during those 30 days no matter what. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, it's always a good day when we got you on Wednesdays because we got some economic data coming down the line, but Thursdays works as well, man, because we got the ADP number and what's your general take on the action that we have going on so far? Well, I think it's just the market doing what the market always does. It does what it wants to do. Nothing can control the market. It can only influence the market. And when you look at the data that's been coming out, everything that the Fed's really been saying from their narrative is not really going the way they want it to. So that means they're gonna keep on being hawkish. There's every reason. We've been talking about how economic numbers are gonna mean a lot over where we're in the time period that we are in now. Now, if you look at them, yes, inflation seems to be cooling off as far as at the rate of acceleration, but it's still growing and it's still there. It's just not as fast as it was. So that's something that the media is saying, oh, the Fed's getting what they want, but the Fed also wants to bring on a recession, even though we're already in one and they wanna do it by having job losses and a retraction in the business world. That's not happening right now. That doesn't fit their narrative, at least totally. I heard your discussion earlier about the Amazon versus small businesses, which is a truly key point. And that's something, so in some ways they're getting what they want, but they're not getting everything they want by the data. And I think that the market, no matter what, is going by, well, the Fed's doing what they're doing because they wanna do it. The market's gonna dictate what really happens, though, and pricing is showing that it doesn't matter what they wanna do. The dollar's getting stronger because of weakness and other currencies, not so much because of the economic data or what the Fed is doing, but the Fed is helping to support that trend, meaning that the bond market, remember we were saying like, if did the market really turn? Did the dollar already turn? That would mean that right now we were in a corrective phase as far as strength. I don't think that's the case. I think if you look at the 30 year and the 10 year, especially the spread by the way they trade, typically the 10 year and the bonds are about basically two to one ratio. But when you see the bonds accelerating to the upside or the downside and the spread differential being about a three to one ratio as far as movement, that really shows you what is driving the market, okay? Short-term interest rates drive the interest rate market in the short run, obviously, but they don't dictate it in the long run. And when you have that kind of volatility push and momentum by the 30 year, which is not as heavily traded as the shorter terms, that tells me that the market wants to have higher yields, lower bond prices and a higher dollar, okay? So, and it doesn't matter what the Fed is doing right now is helping to support that by their narrative, okay? It doesn't mean that their narrative is right and that's gonna do is gonna bring on the results that they want, but the market is supporting that right now. And I think you can see by the way that the US dollar traded this week, you know? We can, on Tuesday, it looked like the dollar was gonna be weak, you know? And then yesterday, obviously, obviously it was gonna be stronger, then yesterday it looked like, okay, the holidays are over, we're not just algo trading, you know, the economy is going the way the Fed wants it, we're gonna see the dollar start to fall down. Well, the reality is that's not what's happening. You can see it by today, like the pound is leaning on new daily lows, you know, the euro is almost there, you have an acceleration of the US dollar yen, you know? So once again, if the dollar has topped, you know, then this was only a corrective move. I think that we're showing right now that it's not a correction and the real overall trend is coming back going into 2023, meaning that we're gonna have a stronger dollar for the next few months. Yeah, right, as we climb above 105 man on that dollar index, I was jumping around to the euro and the yen as you pulled it up as well. Pretty interesting, we're back above Tuesdays high after that pullback in the dollar yesterday on volatility in both directions. And it will kind of make sense part of what, I mean, you and I have been talking about when you're coming on a weekly basis that the data's gotta get there, man. And no matter what the Fed is saying, I find it so interesting that the market seems to continue every time the Fed gives even the pause that the data may be lining up. And yes, that's exactly it. And we talked about this already a couple of weeks ago that in the first quarter, and also that right now the Fed is doing what they're doing not because they want to, we talked a couple of weeks ago about this, that in the first quarter, they're gonna still remain on this hawkish thing. They're not just gonna go from this strong stance to we're neutral, you know, they're gonna ease off it. Now we did say that, you know, they're not gonna raise at the rate that they were doing just like inflation isn't running at the absolute high rate that it was doing. But it doesn't mean that there's gonna stop doing it, okay, and it's not about defending the dollar, it's about fitting their narrative. And because these data points that we can't just look at the major one saying these are slowing, inflation slowing, there's other things that are not supporting their things meaning they want job reduction. They want to, they want to bring on a recession. And so they get the data point quote unquote, this isn't a recession, you know, I mean, everyone out there will tell you, you're in a recession, anyone that loses their job right now in an inflationary environment, that's not good for them, you know, so nobody really likes what our Fed's doing, you know, but they're gonna keep doing it, at least for the next few months, and that's gonna be supporting the dollar as well against these other currencies. Nice. Would you mind hanging to the break? Cause I wanted to get, you gave quite a recap of things that could happen. Big picture, and we're gonna take a break, but would you mind going over for some of the listeners because I was talking to my dad over the holidays about what you were potentially saying could come down the line. And if it's okay, I want to go through some of that after the break. Does that work? Sure, absolutely for sure. So we're gonna come back. Teddy's gonna talk about some of the big picture things as we committed to 2023. We have markets in negative prices. We got the dollar up about 69 ticks at 104.94. Stay tuned, folks. We got everything working again. We'll be right back after the break. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&Ps down about 45 points. That's off about 1.1% trading at 38.30. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. And so Teddy, man, you gave us such a great roundup of things and you don't have to go through it all, but for those didn't listen, they weren't listening. There was some interesting, and that's the word of the hour we'll call it, interesting things you were talking about coming into this year. If you could just give them a little teaser whether you were talking about what could play out, but where those kind of drive some of the things, whether it was, I remember, gold we were talking about on there, some of the yields, markets, go for it. Okay, well, definitely, I said the Swiss and gold were definitely long-term plays. Short-term, I would not say by the Swiss because I do think the dollar's gonna be strong going into this first quarter. But I would look in the overall long-term for the Swiss to be a buy over the next year and a half to two years. I think that trend is definitely going to arise. And the same thing with gold. As we, you gotta realize this whole narrative of the Fed destroying jobs to bring us into a recession, if you think about it, under the time period that we're in, this couldn't be the, I mean, if you wanna talk about really beating up America, you're really picking the right time to do it, you know? I mean, no one alive right now has lived during the Great Depression that happened back in the last century. They were born and grew up in the post era, but they didn't go through the depression. And right now, the way you gotta look at things is that we're coming into a potential of reliving the 1930s again, you know? And especially with bringing on, you're creating unemployment by design. Now, creating unemployment by design in a heavy inflationary environment really puts a lot of stress on the people no matter what country you're talking about, okay? And if this is, I mean, they're not coming out and saying that this is where we wanna hurt people, but by what they're doing is exactly what they're saying. We wanna bring on a recession. Now, that's really not how you go about fixing an economy. Recessions happen naturally. You don't cause them by design, okay? And I think really what you have here is the debt market is so inflated because we printed so much money that right now they're pushing the bond market, but then they have to make a choice. Do you want the bond market to explode or do you want the dollar to implode, you know? And I think that that's what's gonna happen is they're pushing this hawkishness for the next first three to six months and then what's gonna happen is they're gonna start to lay back and that's when they're gonna let the dollar collapse to eat up, you know, this problem with the bond market. And it's not good for stocks. I like the talk, man. It's good for gold, buy this Swiss, and Bitcoin too. Switzerland has one community now that accepts Bitcoin and all the...