 Welcome to Thursday night football, I guess it is the weirdest single-game slate that I recall in quite some time We have tons of injuries to this game the total was just 40 and a half on Vandalsports book with a tight one and a half point spread in favor of The Cleveland Browns who are playing at home. I mean you can't even You can't even fill out a lineup on Fandal that exceeds the cap With healthy players tonight, so it's one of those again. I don't know if we've had one of these before But it is one of those so welcome on in to the Thursday night football Fandal Q&A for tonight's game I am your host Brandon Gadoula. I'm the managing editor at number fire comm You can head over there to check out a lot of my content really all of my content, of course. I Am here to be breaking down the single-game slate from a DFS perspective talking about some game theory If you have start-sick questions, most of those will be answered by my start-sick column that goes up on number fire every Thursday morning I what I do for that column is I go through and I Simulate out the slate thousands of times Using some you know using number fires projections as the baseline and some dynamic ranges of outcomes expectations for certain players based on Their their skill type their skill and their their play type So guys with a lot of air yards come compared to guys with the little few air yards at receiver those guys get bumped up but I Simulate that out and then I give a baseline expectation for each player Their odds of finishing top 12 or top 24 at the position I just say that because a lot of time I get a ton of start-sick questions And I want to make sure that you guys check that out just to see what the Sims have to say for the week so Bethany what's up Bethany? Thanks for the kind words This is so I'm gonna dig into this This slate and it's just so hard because we have injuries everywhere On this slate and before I even really could dig it. I'll dig into the injuries first But this is just a long list. I mean you check this out on the number fire Games and line-ups page tons of injuries. We know that cream hunts out Nick chubs out Baker Mayfields out and so we got Starting case Keenan versus Teddy Bridgewater who and Bridgewater wasn't he wasn't certain to play but he is going to play So we've got tons of value, but unfortunately or I guess for either way We don't need it case Keatham can be had at $5,000 on at Fandle with that salary and Again, you can't you cannot fill out a lineup with healthy players And exceed the salary cap It's just not possible Oh, no Beckham. I don't know 100% sure If he's gonna play sounds like he's on the wrong side of questionable though So I'm kind of proceeding as if he's not going to play, but yeah, you can you have salary left over on Fandle, so That's just kind of it's one of those one of those nights. So I See some questions coming in And I will get to those in just one second, but I always like to break down the single-game slate From an expectation standpoint first looking at a high level of Looking at a high level of Match-ups from a quarterback running back and a receiving standpoint here This number here shows number fires Past defense metric Which is an expect based on expected points model Cleveland rating out 21st on a per play basis But top five in success rate allowed Denver a bit tougher on in both So if you see a low success rate, but a high net expected points per drop back What you're really seeing is that they do well to limit place more consistently But they've been a little bit more susceptible to bigger plays which with the courtland Sutton on the slate That's going to be super super relevant kind of board, you know borderline top 12 top 10 rush defenses for the running backs, but That's not gonna be enough to get me away from The running backs in this game because of what I'll talk about in just a second So actually some pretty good individual match-ups from a unit standpoint Neither team rating out top 12 against running backs or receivers in adjusted Fandle points per target And if you're not an outlier, you're not top five top six Even top six is probably a little bit generous with with the term outlier thrown around we're looking at A pretty a pretty like wide open Receiving game. However, we got 20 mile per hour wins and that is not good for passing projections typically even with projections being adjusted based on, you know High wins typically bumped down over unders that typically affects projections even with that Historically projections are not bumped down enough in heavy wins So it's gonna put a bit of an emphasis on the running game And with a lack of play volume because both of these teams are 25th or worse in adjusted Pace or a pace outside of garbage time We should expect them to run the ball move the clock not have a lot of plays and not score a ton of points Which is why this is super noteworthy incomparable games to this one in games with Since 2019 in games with totals under 40 44 or under and spreads of four and a half or lowers to a 37 game sample we see that Running backs get a huge boost and the odds that they are the MVP in an optimal lineup after the fact so about a 30% hit rate for them overall across all of the games from 2019 to 2021 That had a single game slate on Fandle that bumps up almost 20 percentage points In games similar to this you could also probably bump that up even more with the wind So It's probably a game where we could consider fading the quarterbacks So but but even with that the quarterbacks are still as expected You know more likely than than any other position outside of running back to finishes the MVP and That's just what you expect receivers and tight ends especially with the The wind being what it is you'd probably anticipate that they're not MVPs we built around unless we're trying to get really really different on the slate and then quickly Surprisingly underdogs have been more common in these game scripts to finish as the MVP I don't know if that's variants or what but again, we're looking at games with small spreads So that's something definitely to keep in mind for tonight And even though running backs are very commonly the MVP in similar game scripts It's not always coming from the favorite. It's coming from the underdog as well So that is something that we should keep in mind for tonight And then one last thing just because I always like to figure out if kickers are worth it for a particular slate Low scoring games could definitely lead to you know, three field goals being enough to make it in To an optimal lineup we see in similar games that kickers do Kind of overperform the overall Expectation to make it into an optimal lineup But again with the winds not necessarily trying to load up on kickers, especially because we don't really need the savings So I'm gonna go pretty heavy at running back Overall with that covered and kind of the baseline laid out. I'm gonna dig in to some of these questions a question from Ramon quarterbacks tonight, so case Kenan and Teddy Bridgewater They unsurprisingly again Lead the slate in median Fando expectations across a thousand slate simulations That shouldn't really surprise us just because the quarterbacks and quarterbacks tend to have a high baseline That's why quarterbacks overall Typically are the most common MVP choice and even with the bump down in similar game scripts to this one tonight They are You know the best overall bets to lead the slate in Fando scoring with Teddy Bridgewater rating out much more likely than anyone else Aside from case Kenan to be the slates MVP That said he's projected for just 1.2 passing touchdowns according to number fire. That's not Territory where we feel like we have to play Teddy Bridgewater because Typically the way that quarterbacks make it into an optimal lineup are Especially at MVP is to have multiple touchdowns Now if we say there's not gonna be a lot of touchdowns and there probably won't be Two passing touchdowns and maybe they go to different players low-salary players Or just players maybe a tight end who doesn't have yardage upside along with that That can still be enough for Teddy or case Kenan to get in to the optimal lineup But with all that said case Kenan at 5,000 feels like the type of value play that might be 95% rostered in a typical If these games were fully healthy otherwise, and it was just Baker may field out case Kenan getting the start of 5,000 It's important to keep in mind that we salaries are relevant for tonight And so we don't have to play case Kenan just because his salary is five thousand dollars if we want We can play Teddy Bridgewater over him. We can also go against the grain and just not play case Kenan because again Salary doesn't matter here. So the savings, you know, they can feel like you have to take them Even though there's no salary and just feels like you can get access to other players But you really don't have to to play it that way and so Only 22% of the time is he expected to lead this slate in Fandall points. So with that in mind I think you could really make a case that you just fade Kenan or even fade both quarterbacks and just hope that there is a No quarterback optimal lineup, which we did actually see recently with the Seahawks in Steelers game as a double-kicker No quarterback optimal line up because you know Smith didn't do a lot Ben Ralfusberger didn't do enough And the game flowed through the running backs and had enough field goals So, you know, it will feel like we have to play quarterbacks But we really don't and honestly sub 70% numbers for top five scores kind of low for quarterbacks So it's a slate where we can get really different. So quarterbacks tonight. I prefer Teddy over Kenan I think both are, you know, just statistically good plays but You can also kind of fade them and get weird because of what this game script has to say Question from Nick. Would you start Sutton or Jalen waddle in a flex? That's a really good question I'm pretty high on waddle For this week 120 ariads over in London two touchdowns heavy target share that the Dolphins should be getting Devonte Parker back. So it's a little bit muddy there in court and Sutton the very clear number one within this offense Sutton leads the league in ariads per game at 188 over the past three weeks only Terry McClaren is also above 135 so it's a huge gap, but again, we got win concerns here. They might not need to throw the ball a ton Just because of the Cleveland offensive expectations That being said, I would probably still lead Sutton because he should he should still be good for a 30 You know 25 30 percent target share Jalen waddles target share might come a bit back down with the Dolphins getting healthier So good question kind of close, but I would still go Sutton in there Comment from Noah will question and comment. I just traded Gibson for AJ Brown thoughts. I Like that. I usually like Wait, I should probably say it this way. I Usually don't like one-for-one trades within the same position just because there's a clear winner and loser so cross position trades Much more open to from that perspective Antonio Gibson, you never know He might sit out this week Till that shin gets right. He hasn't been Fully effective and Gibson, you know, he's just been someone that I've been targeting as a negative touchdown regression candidate AJ Brown Arrow should be up on him even without You know with Julio Jones kind of decreasing the offensive Expectations also with Taylor the one should be a great game for AJ Brown setting up this week against that week chief secondary So I like I like that one overall and I'm pretty high on AJ Brown and a little bit down on Antonio Gibson All right lost my place here. Let me scroll back up Question from Josh Bridgewater or to a I'm gonna go to a in that one. I'll actually check out what my Sims have to say again. These are these will be based on number fires projections But two is 48% likely to finish as a top 12 passer this week Again, you can check out my starts at column on number fire For the week and every week that goes up Thursday morning. So two is it 48% To give us a top 12 Return Teddy Bridgewater down at 32% I think that with the the win for this game. It's a pretty easy Spot for to a for me in that conversation Question from Adam should I start D Johnson tonight or Antonio Gibson on Sundays? So Gibson Did not Practice yesterday for sure was limited Thursday But you know, I would go with I would go with the Ernest Johnson and not really take the chance because Gibson might not play And even if he does he could be limited for JD McKessick So I would I think the Ernest Johnson is in the best spot Among the Cleveland running backs to you know, take over the majority of the workload. They did bring in Another running back with with Kelly But I would feel pretty good if you if you picked up Johnson and just ride with him because again Gibson Not a hundred percent and we don't know even if we'll play for this week Us Same question From Sean Gibson or the Ernest in the flex PPR. Yeah, again, we don't know if Gibson's gonna play I would feel good enough with the expected role just because With the the wind here we should expect the the pass rate to go a bit down And and Johnson to get a pretty heavy workload So, you know, the offensive output might not be as great as what we get from Washington But there's always a chance that Gibson doesn't even play Question from Harry giving AJ Brown, Miles Sanders and Givante for Chubb and Shepard PPR. Yes or no I Think I'd prefer the AJ Brown side I'm kind of getting higher on Miles Sanders his workloads have been kind of good And I talked about this on the heat check preview that I do with Jim Sonnis every Thursday that look the previews the DFS main slate again goes out on a Thursday mornings But I did a whole trend on Jaylen Hertz as a passer with Lane Johnson and they're they're gonna get Lane Johnson back He's averaging 8.0 yards per attempt whenever Johnson plays 6.8 without him his success rates like up 10 percentage points the pressure rates down like 12 percentage points So I'm kind of getting higher on that Philadelphia offense I think Giovante Williams is someone who is breaking a lot of tackles You would kind of think he gets a more and more work down the stretch that can that could start tonight So I'm like I'm good with Shepard, but once Kaderious Tony comes back He's not gonna it's very clear that they wanted Kaderious Tony to be their number one So I would probably hang on to AJ Brown Sanders and Givante there Question from Austin Jarvis Langer or T Higgins at flex and PPR not a lot of wide outs on waiver wire Most of my wide outs have a bi-week Just because of the game environment, I'm gonna go with T Higgins there. I know it could be a little bit Scary to fade Jarvis as potentially the the healthiest like only passcatcher here, especially in a PPR league But the offensive expectations not that high tonight So I would lean with T Higgins in a game. That's at least a little bit more desirable from a stacking standpoint Bethany says don't put the earnest in the flex though put him in a standard running back spot Great point Bethany very heads up managing there Lots of lots of banter going on that I'm sifting through here a question from BBO for Devante Booker or Damian Harris I'm gonna so when I ran the simulations on You know again based on number fires projections They were pretty high on Damian Harris this week He came out at a 54% probability to have a top 24 week in half PPR scoring But Devante Booker came out at 61% So I would lean Booker there regardless I like the workload more like the offense more I like that game more I think that the Jets Patriots game is the worst game of the the week outside of you know this game probably but Devante Booker should be set into you know a really heavy snap rate And the Carolina defense started off really hot But not quite as good as they showed in the first few weeks. So I Would go with Devante Booker there Question from DJ Donovan people's Jones for tonight or no So yeah, I mean I think that people's Jones will probably get a little bit Too much love for what he did last week which included a Hilmary touchdown to inflate things So with that being said, I probably would try to identify And so I mean I'm getting a lot of start-sick questions, which is totally fine But in terms of this single game slate like what it comes down to is Just I'll say it like game theory Where you can play both quarterbacks You can play neither quarterback. It depends on how you view this game going on people's Jones I would assume it gets a big bump down with with Landry Coming back and with the wind because people Jones can get downfield work Let me see here Just the point seven downfield targets per game, but last week I'm pretty sure he had multiple Yeah, two last week with one in the red zone with a 20 yard a dot again Boosted by that Hilmary on his five targets. So, you know again, it's like everyone's in play because literally everyone can be rostered but in terms of Expectations versus popularity. I do think people's Jones is a little bit overvalued from that perspective But I do think that if you're pivoting away, or if you're sorry if you're stacking case Keenum At that rate, you're expecting him to outperform Multiple running backs with good roles or at least ostensibly good roles like for D. Ernest Johnson who again could be phased out a bit but Not phased out, but just maybe not the the feature back With what they do with their other backs the metric Felton you know stuff like that so I would say if you're playing case Keenum Easily especially at MVP go with that double stack That would include people's Jones for sure outside of that. I think I'm just going to be down on this passing game overall because of The over under because we see running backs so so heavily in the MVP slot And because you know just the the the wind Is leading to that low point expectation uh overall All right, uh tim patrick or higgins have really like tim but teddy questionable Yes, that's a good point. I mean teddy is questionable, which I mentioned Um, but he is going to play we got win concerns I like teddy a lot. I love courtland Sutton in that spot. I think I just lean t higgins again A better game environment For him play volume could be an issue between the the Bengals and the Ravens, but It's not quite like this game that could very easily finish You know 17 13 and nobody would be surprised um that that bingles Ravens game could also finish that way, but it's going to just be from low low play volume So I would go higgins there Polly Trying to see if I have any more about tonight specifically Uh, it doesn't look like so. I'll dig into these. I mean again, I'm showing up my my simulations showing the the the projections at number fire for total uh total touchdowns the the phantom sportsbook odds for total touchdowns, which I will say um The Demetric Felton is is plus 185 to score Probably is telling me more than I realize. Um, the number fire projections aren't quite as high as that, but uh, he's I don't know how many snaps out of the backfield he'll get um So he's a really interesting wild card for tonight, especially with everyone kind of going to johnson, which makes more sense because And I dug this up for the recap podcast I do on monday mornings. Um There were basically four snaps for the browns After kareem hunt got hurt last week Because arizona had the ball for so long. There were like four snaps with case kinem Johnson did play all four of those felton is much more of a special teamer Um, kind of a I don't want to call him like a gadget player But if you're expecting one of these guys to have you know, 15 plus carries and leave the team in rushing It's going to be johnson, but um this number here the the plus 25 to score really interesting to me uh for felton Um, so I wanted to make that known before I dig into what it looks like is uh Just all season long questions. Otherwise, um, again, if you have any, uh Single game questions get those in uh on the youtube twitter facebook twitch chat whatever whatever you're using But for now, I'll dig back in to the Season long and the start sit stuff Question from bow pox trade ceh and gibson for jt I'd get jt also start tim patrick tonight or wait to see if collo herbert is starting which I think he is So I actually publish uh trade value charts. Um, or it's just a single chart um on number fire every tuesday that stems from uh Number fires rest of season projections and I actually really like that because It'll naturally factor in for the guys now We're starting to get into bi-week territory. It'll factor in the guys who already had their bi-weeks and it and it Just treats players as like the roles that they have Rather than the expectation for the role that we might think that they get I would say blindly before looking um into that trade too much. I would take the jt side just because gibson a little bit banged up, um Clyde edwards you layer not really someone who might walk back into a lead role Once he's healthy with how daryl Williams played last week So I would go jt also, um for the tim patrick conversation I'd probably Not go there and just hope that we get herbert starting um Because I don't like this game enough to want to stack up like too many of my Too many of my season long plays in this game So yeah, I would wait there and go with herbert um Oh follow-up from from bow pox. I have collins and aji greens starting over, uh Tim patrick right now um Yeah, I mean honestly I it's it's so tough because this game could just be so bad tonight with the wind being what it is um, and if case kingdom just gets You know, I understand that the browns are are favored here, but if case kingdom gets The worst of the denver defense like denver might not have to pass a lot So I'd probably just try to avoid tim patrick if possible if you have those better options um question from patty start three bench one terry more aji brown godwin That's a good problem to have of I don't know. I mean take your pick there really. Um, that's one of the ones where I don't have a strong enough. Um A strong enough opinion To pick one. I would probably lean toward Geez benching Godwin just because the market share could be really It could easily be the worst of the of the four So probably godwin although I do love godwin on fandal This week at 6700. I think he's a bit under salaried there um Pauli says sander's rest of season is also pretty nice Yeah, I don't do a whole lot with um rest of season projections Or schedules, but what does is that trade value chart that I publish on number fire again You can just check that out Every tuesday and that does account for things like matchups now that we know more and more about opponent expectations So, you know all the starts at stuff. I have my personal preferences But I also defer a lot to that trade value chart that I publish on those tuesdays DJ says just got deontay johnson in a trade for tea higgins and zack earth's thoughts You got deontay traded away tea and earths. I like that. I like getting the best player in a deal Even if it's a two for one zack earths um While digging into those on off splits that I talked about for lane johnson And how he has impacted jalen hurts. I also took a A dive into the zack earth's numbers and jalen hurts has actually been more efficient with zack earths off the field I'm not trying to like Pick on zack earths, but he's not Really a difference maker and now that he's going into an offense where they you know Who have some pop games, but the market shares on that team are so dispersed anyway That I would be looking to trade zack earths if I can before he plays and if I'm wrong there That's fine because the odds that zack earths goes to The cardinals and is like a top five can't can't bench can't fade Tight end with the market shares being what they are That seems very very very unlikely based on what we've seen from him recently Bethany says wait you do the thursday morning preview on Wednesday No, I do Bethany you're uh, you've been listening to us for like 10 years now um we do the the sunday preview for the main slate on thursday mornings and I'm previewing the thursday night game now on thursday uh question from motive jack Miles sanders or josh jacob's Um, that's a good one I would I would be curious to know who you have as your uh other running backs just because these guys are kind of borderline but um The simulations this week have jacob's at 67 percent to finish top 12 or top 24 rather miles sanders 60 percent I was going to say I would be in jacob's anyway Um, just because he has the least chance to get phased out and be the secondary back within that offense But both are viable. I like that game a good bit, but between the two I would lean josh jacob's That is all the questions I have for for today. Um, that is really all I have to say didn't do as much a breakdown of the thursday night slate As anticipated, but I get it because it is a it's a game that only You know the the dfs crowd could really love so That's going to do it for me for the uh fandal nfl q and a Thank you to joy aflech for producing the video uh for this week I'm in featuring those questions on this q and a feel free to hit me up on twitter at gaduola 13 Or check out my dfs content on numberfire.com best of luck tonight and let's hit a big stack