 We're glad to know you're still there. Right now we're looking at what is happening in Niger and also the West African Block, ECOAS, Economic Community of West African States. The team is negotiating with Niger on return to civil rule. We have, as I guess, Dr. Frank Ter Abagan, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, Ben West State University, Good morning and welcome to the program, Doctor. Hello, Dr. Abagan, can you hear me? Good morning and welcome. Thanks for having me. Okay, I was wondering what I was supposed to say before you can hear me. You said it correctly. Before now, when the problem in Niger happened, the ECOAS community was talking very tough. They were going to give sanctions and they actually did. They were going to go to war even almost. That's what we were trying to get from their talk. But now it has come down to negotiations, to return to civil rule. We'd like you to give us a general perspective of what you think about the stage at which ECOAS is now with Niger. Okay, thank you very much. The ECOAS leaders led by our own president have just adopted diplomacy instead of coercive action. They've decided that diplomacy will give them the result of what they want than to use force. The earlier discussions were about using force to, you know, return Muammar Bazoum back to power. But they've weighed the costs. If you invade Niger, you're going to talk about a very huge humanitarian crisis. And also our northern corridor, the states in the north that share a border with Niger will also be affected. There's another dimension to the creation of the Sahel alliance between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso also changed the narrative, including their links with the Russian Federation. So the leaders decided that the best thing to do now was no longer to use force in the form of a military invasion, but use diplomacy. And that's what led to the creation of that committee which has been in Burkina Faso. I mean, Benin called the Voa and Burkina Faso to come together and talk to the leadership in Niger about a quick transition. That's what they are looking at. And the echo has also said that despite the military coups along the West African corridor, the value placed on democratic rule as the best for states within the West African sub-region is non-negotiable. So they are just using a different approach now. The first approach was about using force, or the use of force, but now they've decided that let's form a committee and send this committee to Niger to talk to the leaders about a very short timeframe for return to democratic rule. Okay. Well, my concern is that this carrot approach should have been the first thing and the last result becomes the force that they were talking about. Do you think that they can be negotiating now from an advantageous position or they are going to be disadvantaged? Because you have already threatened someone before you come to say, okay, let's talk about it. It should have been less talk and then when they do not talk or the talks do not yield anything, they now resort to another one. So where do you think Echoas will be negotiating from, a strong point or a weak point? Echoas is negotiating from a sensible point. Let me use that word, sensible point. Not entirely weak, but more just sensible. The thing is that you weigh your options. At first Echoas was dealing with only Niger. That's who they were dealing with. But when Niger now went into an alliance with Mali and Burkina Faso and Russia, the whole game changed. The whole scenario changed. We were dealing with people now who could master military power based on the alliance they had gotten into because of the similarities of the coups along the West African corridor. So it changed the whole scenario. The casualty level was going to be higher. The military technology they had access to was more sophisticated. So it was time for Echoas to now go back to the 20s to think of a more sensible approach. And this is why we're coming up with this now. So I agree with you on a certain extent that yes, Echoas is negotiating from, I won't call it a totally weakened position, but a more sensible one. Because Echoas can still invade, but the cost will be extremely high. It is going to affect us because we are contiguous to that particular country. And also the humanitarian crisis was going to be much. And this is what Echoas is trying to prevent. So this is the scenario that has changed the whole game with the initial interest in attacking or invading Niger. So I think Echoas is just trying to be reasonable at this point. But the most important thing here is now we're using diplomacy. And I think somehow in this scenario that we achieve much more with diplomacy, especially with the idea of asking the military leader, not just in Niger, but I know because it's going to spiral to both Mali and Burkina Faso and any other African country within the West African sub-region, that look, the time has come for you to give us a short transition program that will move us from this military rule, as you see, to a more civilian or democratic elected government, which reflects the will of the people. I think that's where the discussion is at now. What if the color bluff, sorry. What if the color bluff and say, okay, we don't need you anymore? Because that's what it seems now. Instead of coming cap in hand to beg Echoas that, okay, give us some time and all that, they now started forming another alliance or other alliances that will show that they don't even need Echoas anymore. Because Echoas, that protection and everything was supposed to be there. They don't have it. They don't feel secure anymore. That's what forming another alliance is. What happens if the color bluff? Well, they, they, we are, even as an analyst, I'm rather, to say a bit impressed with what those states have done. We didn't anticipate them coming together the way they did. I guess maybe when you're forced into a corner, you do so. They weighed options and I think this didn't, I think it wasn't an accidental thing. They weighed the various options if there was going to be an aggression, because we have threatened military action on other Echoas states who decided to change government unconstitutionally. The case point of Gambia is still there. So what has happened now is that they have unveiled themselves, the options. And the option now is, first of all, coming together. You're not dealing with the Nigerian army. You're dealing with the Malian and Bokinabi army. And then they also reached out to Russia, who has deployed the Wagner Force, which is one of the deadliest fighting, private fighting forces in the world right now. So this is the arsenal that Niger has as its disposal. And then secondly, Niger is making a lot of money now. You recall that they were not happy with the arrangement when France was controlling things and an ounce of uranium was being sold for 80 cents. They're getting almost $300 per ounce now on the international market. And they're using that to make a lot of money. So they also have money now on their hands. So we're dealing with the situation whereby Niger has become suddenly larger than life. So the approach now has to be different. And I commend them for using this. Let's see what negotiations will do. Is the right way to do it now than to go into a particular conflict that will create a lot of crisis force in terms of destruction of lives and property. So this approach, I think, is the best one. Yes, you could call the Nigerian government of being crafty and all that. Well, I guess if you're in their shoes, you probably do the same thing. You need all the help you can get because you came to power unconstitutionally and you came to power when the international community seems to be against you. So this is the scenario that's playing itself out. I think with negotiations and with a little bit of diplomacy, they're able to get more done than if it's physical aggression. So do you think things are looking up right now and with these negotiations we'll be able to move from the military to the civilian role? Is that something you think they might even want at the moment or not? Yes, that's a very good observation. Eko was said several times through the president of his commission, Dr. Omar Aliu, that the Nigerian government is belligerent. They don't seem to want peace, you understand? They're also blocking attempts at humanitarian aid by Eko to some of the Nigerians there. And France is also pulling out. So France formed the security corridor to prevent jihadist attacks around the corridor, which is the same corridor that they share with Mali and Burkina Faso. So there are worries, yes, that it's going to happen. But the thing is that we're hoping, we're hoping that sense, reason will be the basis for the exchange. Whatever you do, I don't think you rule out dialogue. No matter how well the conflict is, it's dialogue that resolves things. You can't even see it happening in both Ukraine and Russia, Hamas and Israel. So the scenario here is still the same. We've not gotten to the stage where we're firing weapons at each other, but at least the platform for dialogue is opening up. So I would think, and I think it's most reasonable for the Nigerian government, military government to participate in this. And also the world is for democratic governance now. So whatever they do, we need to see a transition program from that government. How long are you going to stay in power before you hand over to the people? Because power belongs to the people. The democratic ideal should be the one we should uphold because, like a lot of people have observed, there's a tendency that if you don't form some kind of activism against military rule, you are sanctioning it and it will become something that you see, not just along the West African corridor, but to other African states, maybe Eastern and Southern parts of Africa. The main thing now is that the government in Niger has to see that ECOAS is no longer threatening force. The fact that the committee has been formed with three heads of state to go and negotiate is a step in the right direction. We're all hoping, you know, in these kind of situations you rely a lot of hope to. We need a lot of very skillful diplomats who will go in and engage the military government to see reason why a transition program is needed so that Niger quickly returns back to democratic rule. Okay. So, I mean, obviously we're hoping for the best and Niger can move back to the democratic rule. But then, what if it doesn't pan out that way? And then we're seeing countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger just going on with the military. What does that say to, you know, other West African states? Are we seeing stuff like uprising like this now moving to other countries because they can say, oh, if Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso could do it, we can also do it as well. Are we going to see an uprising like that in other countries? Well, things may look similar, but each country has its own unique cultural treat. It has its own unique cultural patterns and all that in terms of political culture and how they react to issues. You see, the situation is the military in these countries was very clever because of the experience with France. So you could see a lot of public support, massive public support for these military governments. Now, it would get to a stage that the people themselves were the ones who would start demanding civil rule. Demand democratic rule. It's going to happen with time. So it is when they now start making those demands and the military government does not want to accede to those demands. That is when the internal crisis will start. But for now, the government appears popular. All those military governments, they have the support of the people. So it's a situation now. But what Echo was saying is we have already agreed you are part of us. This international organization will have that as laws on constitutional government, your government is unconstitutional. So yes, it's an aberration because of the situation you're coming to power, but it's unconstitutional. So give us a time frame in which you will return power to the people through a democratic process. That's what Echo was saying. So I think it's a step in the right direction. And we hope the military government sees this because, of course, they are riding the wave of popularity now, but you cannot see what is going to happen in the next six months. So this is how it goes. Government sometimes coming to power at the instance because they're saying what the people want. They appear popular. But after some time, the government now will start getting demands. The politicians in these countries who would want the return to democracy because they have lost power too. So we're hoping seriously that the military government doesn't need the need for that. The thing is, what terms are they taking to the table for these negotiations? Because so far we've been hearing about return to civil rule because it is constitutional and all that. What about the issues that were raised by these people who planned and executed the coup? For instance, you said something about Niger becoming richer now because that alliance with France which impoverished them has been caught. When they return to the civil rule, are they going to follow the agreements they've had before now? Will they still go back to selling their resources at cents when they are now ending up to $300 per ounce of whatever you called and all that? Will they return to that? It's like returning to your vomit. Sorry for the term that I used. So what terms are they taking to the table? Well, I hope it doesn't get to that stage. Amy Smart Politician in Niger and Burkina Faso and Mali will recognize the fact that the people revolted and the military capitalized on this. And that's why you have military governments in those countries. So if you're going to come into power or you're going to come to power, even if it's democratic, and you are not going to go by the wishes of the people who didn't want the shackles of France on their necks anymore, your government will become instantly unpopular. Now, you see, the key thing Eko has to say is that, why not say that you shouldn't fight France? Well, if there's going to be a change of government, it should be democratic. But I guess the people were simply fed up, you understand, and they supported them. They preferred the instant removal. Sorry, can a democratic government, can a democratic government, sorry, sorry, can a democratic government sever the ties with France the way a military government has done? Because when they come back to democracy, is it possible for a democratic government to say, okay, now we have nothing to do with France anymore, and then they want to stand on their own? Is that possible in a democracy? Because it seems as if democracy drags and drags. It is. If you take a look at governments in the eastern parts of Africa, you know, Tanzania, Kenya, those governments have had, or even Zimbabwe, they've had times where they took hard line positions against the, you know, right now the United States, led by other Western countries, has imposed sanctions on Uganda because Uganda refused to enact LGBTQ laws. You understand, they enacted very strong anti-LGBTQ laws. So because of this, there are a lot of its sanctions on Uganda, and Uganda government is democratic. You heard most of any was voted in. You have the same thing for Rwanda too. So there are governments that have come in through the ballot and have maintained a very tough stance on certain issues. So a democratic government can also do the same, especially a democratic government that knows that its power is from the people. You also have the late John Magofuli of Tanzania, who totally fought against, you know, certain Western interests in his country, you know, that, no, especially over the process and administration of the COVID vaccines. He stood his ground and he made sense of what we're saying. We even had Thabo Mbeki, we recall years ago, who kept fighting the international community over its process of fighting HIV AIDS. So you can have a democratic government if you have a leader who knows his onions that will say no, this particular thing we don't want. In fact, a democratic government can even be stronger because the person who is in power is speaking because he's deriving his authority from the people. We can have this kind of situation. It shouldn't always be a military government that, you know, that's flexing his muscles because the first thing you see is a gun by his side. So we can have that kind of situation. We've had those in the past. So I think it's a matter of facing the reality and looking at what your objectives are and negotiating properly. I think there's a win-win situation here. The government in Niger, in Burkina Faso, have to realize over time that it cannot maintain those structures because you are saying that if another person comes with a bigger gun within the military, the person can overthrow you. But if it's constitutional, you have the legitimacy to rule without any intervention or intrusion into your government. So in as much as there is some level of pessimism, I want to have hope that they also know that with time, the government must become democratic. So the best thing to do is to negotiate. Which Neko is trying to do now. Happy Hoping, Doctor. Alright, we want to thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you for your insights and valuable contributions. Thank you. Thank you, Doctor. Thank you. Alright, we've been speaking to Dr. Frank Teh about again. He is someone, actually, the senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Benrey State University of Macaulay. Thank you so much for joining us today. So now we'll take a quick break and when we return, we'll be looking at our second hot topic. Stay with us.