 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com or today We are getting you set for Friday's college football playoffs semifinals breaking down both games with Pamela Maldonado of Yahoo getting her read on Georgia versus Michigan and Alabama versus since he and NFL week number 17 My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed is finally here Semifinal week. You're getting some good movement in your favorite. You talked Michigan plus eight and a half last week It's not seven and a half things looking pretty good. How you doing? I'm doing pretty well. I'm happy to get that movement. I'm not as happy that Dax Hill is the Michigan safety is not in Miami yet Hopefully that changes over the next what what we got About 30 hours into a kickoff Looks like JT Daniels is healthy for for Georgia So kind of I think we're kind of in this situation as Michigan van you'd like to see him because that means Bennett struggling right which would be a good thing and Yeah, just excited obviously a lot going on here in Ann Arbor with trying to figure out New Year's Eve plans and and watching the game and stuff like that Also excited for the other semi-final game. I actually did some pretty interesting analysis with and without John Mechie which if you want to hear about we'll go out my newsletter New Year's New Year's Eve morning before the game and Yeah, I was a little bummed to kind of miss out on since he plus 14 but I did put a little bit on since he plus 13 and a half I do think is a pretty good matchup for him and Excited for both games. I think you're gonna be both great. I do think the SEC teams will win But I do think we can potentially get some exciting games here We've I've gotten vibe checks on Michigan for a while now. Where is Ann Arbor at on this team right now? Is there Optimism like cautious optimism. How are they feeling about this team in Ann Arbor specifically? I think there's cautious optimism and I think there's in terms of the market I think there's a lot of similarity is what we saw with Ohio State being about a touchdown favorite going up going down Things moving late for Michigan. Obviously, there's there's a whole history and emotional stress of dealing with Ohio State Which is absent right against Georgia. I think you have to respect Georgia as a really Really great team that's had a phenomenal season. I think you also have to Acknowledge that they didn't play that tough a schedule this year except for that Alabama game I I'm looking forward to seeing how Michigan's offensive line plays against probably the best Front seven in college football. I think that's where the game gets won or lost So should be great Yeah, should be a lot of fun We're gonna break that down with Pamela Maldenado of Yahoo getting her thoughts on that game and also Sinsey versus Alabama you can find Pamela on Twitter at Pamela M 35 again all of her work over at yahoo.com We're gonna break down the college football semi-finals. We're gonna talk about other bowl games She likes the rest of the year and also NFL week number 17 and some big games over there before that though quick Reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We're an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast. You name it You can find us there while you're there hit subscribe and also leave us a rating and review if you like what you hear Before we talk to Pamela though got to go back to last week and recap how things went NFL week 16 covering the past All right on our show last week We had two bets we agreed on because it was just the two of us talking about what our number said about NFL week 16 The first one was the Cardinals minus two against the Colts and we did get some movement here Closed at minus three so impactful movement in our favor there It was just the same thing that has hurt the Cardinals this entire past month though where they moved the ball But had trouble finishing drives. They missed two field goals They had another turnover on downs in any territory They lost 22 16 and those missed opportunities were the key difference in this game So as someone has been on the wrong side of two of those games Ed the Rams game and then this one very frustrating team even they get into plus territory It just for whatever reason it's not worked out so far Yeah, I think these things are all temporary. I mean, I think they've had some issues on fourth down and and But that offense is good. Yeah, and you know, even without the Andrew Hopkins You know, they're passing success rate numbers have been pretty decent over those last two games without them So I do think we're gonna see better things You hit a couple of those fourth downs. It's gonna be a whole different story And yeah, I'll be talking about the Colts later that number moved to six for Cardinals Cowboys this week as well That is interesting given Rodney Hudson's back. I'm not talking about that game in the future, but I I Think plus six is pretty good there So I check out the Cardinals for a bounce back potentially this week The second game went much better for us both in terms of movement The movement was gonna both but the movement was good here and the result was good too That was the bills at plus two and a half against the Patriots This one moved all the way to plus one by Sunday despite the fact Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis were both ruled out for COVID Before that game the bills I don't know pretty much dominated during this game. They won outright by 12 They out game the Patriots for 28 to 288. They picked up 28 first downs So good movement for both games and the win here for the bills that one I felt pretty good about all week There was never really any massive massive worry on my end about that game Yeah, for sure. I mean my numbers are the bills winning outright and I think they showed What they haven't showed all year in that they're a prime Super Bowl contender when I mean in particular when they play the best Yeah, and they if I look at my like my numbers, they got a pretty big boost from that game So the bills fun team interesting team volatile team, but volatility can be fun for sure So that's week 16. We're talking about week 17 In addition to the college football playoff semi-finals with Pamela Maldonado again on Twitter at Pamela M 35 Find her work at Yahoo in just one second But first Fandals now offering an exciting twist to the beloved same game parley Introducing the same game parley plus which allows you to combine same game parlays across multiple games All you got to do is head on to Fandals sportsbook and navigate to the same game parley tab of the first game You're interested select multiple bets from the first game then hit plus it up now You could add more bets from the other same game parley labeled games head over to Fandals sportsbook today and opt in to the same game Parley plus must be 21 plus and present Arizona Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia max bonus $1,000 site credit restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com Same game parley plus available for multiple sports in all states on mobile and web gambling problem call 1 800 gambler visit fandal.com Rg in Connecticut call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it for confidential help in Michigan 102 707 1 1 7 in Tennessee called the red line at 180 9 9 79 in West Virginia 100 gambler net or in Arizona call 100 next step or text next step to 533 4 2 Covering the present. Let's bring Pamela Maldonado into covering the spread now to talk a little bit of college football with these semi finals Coming up this weekend. It is exciting actually tomorrow. I guess if you record right now, it's wild how fast those came up Pamela We appreciate the time. How you doing today? I'm doing really well. I'm in a different city than what I'm normally in So I have a different backdrop. I get a different setup But you may do with what you got and I what I like about my mic is that I can take it with me So I All my equipment with me and I have transformed a new office base for the weekend I'm curious to get the same experience when I fly Pamela. I have to take my mic out So I'm afraid it looks like a bomb when it's in like because like it's not like an electronic per se And like I could keep it in my bag, but I'm always worried that it's gonna look super suspicious Do you have the same fear going through security with your microphone? I do because it's like you it's in a little black box and it's very skeptical But I did drive because I'm in Texas and I stayed in Texas So I didn't have to worry about that this time around. Is that Tim Duncan behind you? It is This is the you have Tim Duncan I met a friend's house and this is they are huge huge huge They used to live in San Antonio So huge first fans and you're in Texas of course and then of course we variant everyone's favorite Yeah, well Tim Duncan's a man and I would Get into a lot of people's well I mean you got you got two people two players there considered some of the best ever Of the last two decades in the NBA. I would definitely side with the San Antonio spur there Pamela I feel like you're one of the lucky ones because a lot of people are you know on the road right now For this time of year you're in a place reaction to kind of a cool backdrop I am here like showcasing my mom and stepdad's like bar So like you know, if you're in front of like a Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant poster, you know You're probably set up better than most of us right now. That probably means I'm really good friends because they have good taste, right? Exactly, exactly. So hopefully they are set up for tomorrow as well We've had some bowl games going on for a while now and they've been kind of interested in which curious How is bowl season gone for you so far from a betting perspective the games that I have bet? I'm being super selective. I've only bet six games. I'm five and one in those games But for Yahoo, I am predicting every single bowl game and I am about 500 But predicting every single bowl game trying to keep up to date with the opt-outs with the COVID situation has been impossible so trying to from a From a content creator perspective. It's been really difficult Then years before Because these this COVID changes these COVID changes just it changes everything it affects things and players You won't know until like the game day and you posted your article the day before so your stuff is already outdated It's just really but it's been tough But hopefully I've been able to give some people some information at least at the very least a one-stop shop for who's in and who's out And that's kind of what I've used it for for DFS stuff because I'm actually not New York Which has been great because I can play some college football DFS having one-stop shopping to know who is in who's out good for betting But also really good for DFS. So I've appreciated that for sure and I'm glad that it hasn't been you know too much of a nightmare Because I'm also providing aside from who's in and who's out I'm also giving you what the line opened at and what has it shifted to and I think that's I think people always tend to forget Well, let me look at the line history of the line is seven right now, okay? Well, there was a pick a week ago Well, like you have to stop and think what made it change seven points We've seen a lot of games go through the number of zero That's so rare to happen and it's happening every other day in college football because of COVID-19 because of the opt-outs So I'm giving also that line history for you to factor in Yeah, it's a lot of good stuff and in very helpful information to have and just as someone who's been consuming I appreciate it for sure now. I want to talk to you Pamela here because this is our final show of 2021 it's a little bit of reflection time here on you as a better, you know when you look back at yourself and Track your stuff try to go back through what's been successful. What is not? Where do you think you made your biggest growth as a better in 2021? There's two areas that I found that I just really feel like I blossomed. I'm gonna be cheesy for a minute One of those was having confidence in NFL, I didn't for those who are unfamiliar I've talked about this before that I didn't start watching the NFL until 2016 Before that, I couldn't tell you anything I couldn't tell you who was where all I knew was Tony Romo and the Cowboys Because of my father because my family were a Cowboys family not me myself Texas that's what you are So aside from that like I came into this entirely fresh perspective brand new. I didn't know coaches I didn't know staff. I didn't know anybody I regret that's why I gravitated to the Jags Because the players that I knew from college and I loved were on the Jags in the first year that I started watching So yeah, it was Blake Bordel's it was Ellen Robinson And so that's kind of how I started I never had that confidence in the first couple years I'm trying to find my groove trying to do what I did in college It didn't translate to NFL trying to find my own system Well, let me see what everybody else is doing that didn't work Well, let me try to see this new thing and I feel like this is the first year where I finally I know what I want I know what I'm looking for. I know how to do it I trust my process and I've been doing really well ever the entire season Maybe I started off a little rough in the couple in the first couple of weeks, but in the back half of the season I really feel like it's clicking. I'm looking less at more stats looking less at stats and thinking more of like intuition and like Not necessarily what does the book want you to do? But like you do always have to think of that as a perspective And you don't necessarily have that type of thinking when it comes to college football because college football It really is like kind of more I would say more forward like to the point NFL kind of is a little bit more like intuitive rather than statistical So I've just really come into my own with NFL and I'm really happy with that I'm really looking forward to next year and then another thing was I've really gotten comfortable also with live betting And that really comes from a lot of people. I think the problem that they have is that you're watching the game Watching the game is absolutely fantastic. That's absolutely what you should do, but I'm also reading the game I'm on Yahoo scores and I'm seeing play by play what is happening How many yards are gaining? Was it a Russian play? Was it a passing play? Was there a penalty? Oh, it's 60 90 yard punt return touchdown and I'm seeing how the line adjusts. So reading it while you're watching it has really Taught me kind of the tendencies that you can expect for a similar situation happen in the future And because of that, I've had a really successful live betting season Is live betting something you want to stick with going forward because it's been good for you Do you think it's something that's like sustainable and you want to continue to build around that? I wouldn't say that this is gonna be something that I want to do But it is something that's an extra tool to have so maybe in early in the season and if right now It's coming handy for bowl games. I'm doing live betting during bowl games I can make a prediction pre but as we talked about COVID and opt-outs those aren't always gonna come to fruition But if you have an idea what to expect beforehand, you can kind of look for certain things During see if it correlates and see if there's any betting opportunities that you can capitalize on But other than that, I think it's just an extra tool to have If you're able to make those predictions pre-plop awesome do your bet and then if you can also find additional opportunities to cash in on during then why not Yeah, that sounds good So Pam we wanted to have you on today because you can talk both about college football and some NFL games Let's get into the college football semi-final games We have Georgia and Michigan Georgia's a seven and a half point favorite down from eight and a half earlier total of 45 and a half this is an interesting game to me because You know, Georgia's back up quarterback JT Daniels down there supposedly taking reps in practice Dax Hill Michigan safety is not in Miami yet So what are you seeing in this game? There's a couple things that I say I like the under and I do like Michigan and I do and this too kind of correlate But this is Georgia's wheelhouse. We have seen the only game that we saw Georgia struggle with was Alabama What does Alabama do nothing but pass and Bryce young Heisman winner? He had for Alabama quarterback. He had a fantastic Fantastic game. He played perfect football Michigan doesn't pass and they're a run-only team and that's exactly what Georgia's best defense is at They're they're great at playing run-heavy teams. They shut out Arkansas. They held Kentucky to 13 points They held Tennessee to 17 points. They limited all three of those teams to less than 75 brushing yards Michigan, however, is a different type of beast. Not only are they do they have the ability to run like a Late quorum in Islam Hoskins Those are two of the best one-two running back punches that you're gonna have in all of college But then they also come with them One hell of a defense and I think that's what the storyline that people are kind of overlooking here Everyone's focusing on the Georgia defense against Michigan Well, I'm really focusing on the Georgia offense Whether it is Stenson Bennett or JT Daniels and how they're gonna Match up to this Michigan defense because they are very similar in strength as far as red zone scoring goes They're both top ten and opponent points per play They're opponent both top ten and opponent red zone scoring attempts red zone scores and touchdowns love I really do like this total to say under 45 and a half I don't mind that it has ticked it down because it actually has ticked up from the opening line of 44 I would still I would take that up down to 44 But I also do think that Michigan here really is a live dog because if you can scare this offense We haven't seen what this offense is really capable of doing because they haven't been playing for a play behind your situation Other than Alabama, they have not really been tested. They have had their foot on the pedal from a defensive standpoint All season long Well, now what happens when your defense is not able to sustain its strength because an offense in Michigan is able to find some holes What's the Michigan off? What's the Georgia offense gonna look like? I'm really interested in Michigan here Yeah, you bring up a good point. I mean Georgia. I mean, this is I mean definitively the second best team That Georgia's played all year and I don't think people would argue about that. But I think You know, just it their schedule looked good at the beginning of the year and it just didn't really turn out that way Clemson not being as good a forward and not being as good and My numbers actually thought Tennessee was their best opponent So so I would definitely agree with that point that you're making And I love that you're bringing up Tennessee as a comparative opponent because that is the statistically Michigan and Tennessee are very similar. They're similar to Kentucky as well The difference comes in that defense Michigan far far superior Not just in yardage allowed but in also in that red zone defense And if you look at the defenses that Michigan has played they already have been tested time and time again all season long They defeated we know how strong a rushing defense Wisconsin has we know how strong Michigan State's rushing defense is We know how strong of a defense both against the past and against the run Penn State is and Ohio State So that's like four matchups that you have where your offensive string Should not have had that much success against a rushing defense. You were still able to pull out those wins pretty decisively as well Oh, man, I'm just talking myself into Michigan right now So I'm curious the the spread seven and a half the money line is plus 220 Do you like them enough to take the money line or do you want the points in the situation? Always take the points. You always want to go with what the safer bet is. I know this is sports betting There's no such thing as a safer bet Of course, if you are allocating a one unit bet to the spread then your money line bet should be like 20% or less And the longer the odds are the smaller your bets I should be because it's unlikely to happen now in this situation I will also say that I took Michigan What was it in December 30th before they played Ohio State? I took them to win the Natty So I am essentially already have a money line bet on them. There's no reason to add on However, I will be I don't have a spread bet yet. And now I feel like I'm talking myself into taking Michigan Why not man? Hey value that value is value wherever you can find it for sure Okay, let's move now to Cincinnati versus Alabama Alabama 13 and a half point favorite here was 14 last week. It is now 13 and a half total is 57 and You talk a lot about matchups Pamela. You try to identify strengths versus opposing weaknesses Here we get strength on strength because of James and Williams head-to-head versus sauce Gardner So let's talk about that side of the ball. Who holds the edge for you the Alabama passing offense or the Cincinnati passing defense? I Have been fading Cincinnati all season long This is gonna be the one time that I am back in Cincinnati and hopefully it doesn't bite me in the ass But I do believe this is a really good matchup for Cincinnati because Alabama is so past heavy Now, they're not going to be with wide receiver and John Mechie. So is that game plan going to change? This is Nick Saban and he's going to go with what he knows and he has the Bryce young who won the Heisman He trusts his wide receivers the next man up. They're going to fill in the role just fine But since Natty defense, it's time to admit it. They are legit. They have been legit I was I've always been an opponent of 20 20 version is better than 20 21 version And I'm still going to stand true to that. However, it doesn't mean that there are any less Any less capable this time around because if you look at that barricades defense They have two players who are in the top 50 for passes deflected They have four players who are in the top 50 for force in receptions That is and they're both of which are ahead of Alabama players They have Deshaun, Pace, Kobe Bryant, Brian Cook, Arquan, Bush Those are some of the best linebackers quarter cornerbacks and safeties in college And I know that you want to talk about rice young and it's Alabama and it's Nick Saban and it's Cooper five versus sec These books lay the price. They're telling you what the line should be. There's no guessing around You don't have an edge against the books. It's now just deciding. What is your strength? What is your weakness doesn't match up bear cat secondary? Absolutely matches up here. They have the edge here I love them as an underdog. I'm not confident that they can pull out a win because ultimately, yes It is Nick Saban and it is Bryce young so they can always squeak one out But this will definitely be more competitive than a 13 and a half point indicates Yeah, it feels like alabama, you know, it's not the dominating team that they had in 2020 although that defense did have some laps too They had more defensive laps this year. The offense isn't as powerful and uh Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Well, also you had Bryce young who had let's not forget how terrible they're they have a ranked 99th offensive line and quarterback protection This is the one game against Georgia where Bryce young was not sacked a single time One game out of how many this season Was it because that this offensive line all of a sudden turned around became 99th to now number one? Or is it because they just own Georgia and it very well could be that team because in 2020 How they defeated Georgia this year is the exact same way they defeated Georgia last year So it could just be they have their number. I'm still not convinced that this offensive line It's going to stand out is going to be you can't play perfect ball back to bat games Bryce young. He's definitely capable. I expect him to have more trouble this time around because since natty is still top 20 Past rush and so that's going to be another match to watch Yeah, that offensive line has also impacted their rushing game, which means it's an atypical alabama team in that regard as well because it's not as dominant as they typically are which is kind of what you think about when you think about the The semi-final wins over other lesser teams. It's been through the ground game So we'll see how that plays out here now Pamela while we got you here might as well ask you any other game standing out for you You said you've been selective on the college side of things in bolsters any other number standing out to you with where things stand right now um No, no name this one that I'm interested in I've been I've been talked about how i'm an opponent of since natty I've really been a proponent for Notre Dame and I really wish that matchup that they had against since natty where they lost What was it? I believe finals score was like 24 16 or something That was at the worst time for the fighting irish. They had a jack cone He had gone down the game prior from injury So they were playing a three quarterback system that just they couldn't figure it out There was a couple of interceptions They couldn't just find their group but had jack cone been healthy in that match up It could be Notre Dame in this spot right now inside of Cincinnati And I just believe this this team is really as strong as they have ended off their season They are minus three point favorites to Oklahoma State And I believe that that is a good line to have Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders We saw how terrible he can be and that was against Baylor He had zero touchdowns four interceptions and two sacks However, they were without the running back in Jaylen Warren and he is expected to be back in this matchup But just like Oklahoma State Notre Dame is a top 10 in quarterback pressure The huge difference though is in takeaways and the fighting irish are top 15 in forcing turnovers So now you have a quarterback and Spencer stand at sanders Who's already shown how capable he is of throwing the ball over to the other team Against the fighting irish team is fantastic at some at forcing those turnovers. I love Notre Dame in this spot Excellent. So let's move on to the NFL. We got chiefs at bangles Chiefs are a five and a half point favorite in Cincinnati total is going up to 51 What are you seeing in this game? I'm looking to the over and we talked about how this line ticked up just a smidge and I agree with the line movement You have the strength of the bangles The ability is to score for them is the ability to score from outside of the red zone They lead the league with 19 touchdowns The chiefs are fifth So you have two of the top teams who don't need to get downfield because they can put up Points from midfield. They can put up points from the 40 and from in just inside their territory Inside the red zone the bangles are second in the league and converting those troops into touchdowns They are not scoring field goals. They are putting up seven points and the chiefs over the last three weeks They lead in points per play scoring 34 points or more in all three affairs that they've had Both of these teams defensively they're 25th and 29th against the pass bottom half in yards per pass allowed And completion rate allowed and the key is here is going to be the touchdown rate allowed You look at this chiefs defense and you're saying well, you know, they've been playing some really good defensive ball As of lately. Well, you have to also look at the quarterbacks that they have faced They played the Packers without Aaron Rodgers They played the Raiders who was in the middle of that off-field situation They had the cowboys who did not have their top two wide receivers in cd lamb and emory cooper Because cd lamb went down in that game Then they played teddy bridge water and then big ben promise burger who we know is you know susceptible Once the chiefs faced a capable offense and the chargers what happened they gave up 400 Uh yards of offense and 28 points Now you get Joe burrow who's coming off a fantastic game Is the game like that replica? Can you replicate something like that? It was a he scored What happened? He scored the teams franchise record for the most passing yards in a game He had 500 in last week against the Ravens and 525 That's obviously i'm not saying that that's going to happen here But you're talking about two offenses that are super super capable of putting up points. I do like the over in this game Yeah, I was driving last week during the games got to destination pulled open my phone And saw the box score and was like is there a bug? It shouldn't be 525 and four touchdowns like what happened here I was not upset by any means, but like it was wild to see that happen I think the cool thing you mentioned Pamela that is important for an over is you talk about the two key prongs in Getting a huge point until you want long touchdowns the possibility of those and touchdowns not field goals And if they're going to convert on both those things I think that adds up well And also like you said this chiefs defense you got to account for schedule And it's been it has not been because both the Raiders games occurred after Henry rugs was released So I think that's important to keep in mind not just the teams they face but when they face those teams Correct, and then the Raiders also didn't have Darren Waller. So there's just a couple of situations They've been fortunate to face these opponents these passing offenses that were without their key parts Well, the Bengals are pretty healthy and Joe Burr was doing well He's coming off a great season. He Joe mixon is having fantastic success and then who's his Go-to guy. I mean, how often do you see how often am I taking Joe Burrows over longest reception of longest passing Yardage, what is it? It's usually around the 35 yard range. That's one thing that hits weekly. And so now, yeah It really does. I would also look at the chiefs total team total over 27 if you can find it the owner I do like the over in this game, but it's the unknown for me is in the Bengals and Joe Burrow company You know that they're capable of putting up 24 plus. I know that the chiefs are going to put up at least 27 If a comfortable with that at least it's just a matter of are the chiefs going to Run the ball. They can also choose to game plan How many drives have we seen them as of late where they're doing six seven minute long drives because they are dinking and dunking downfield And then and then a touchdown Right that could also happen But I would look at the team total over for the chiefs and I do still like the over on 51 All right, let's move now to the other marquis afc game a four this week that's the dolphins of the titans the titans three and a half point favorite total is 39 and a half and We saw the titans offense kind of come to life in week 16 aj brown is back from injury And shockingly they played well once they actually had a good player back on offense So are you expecting that resurgence to continue here? Or are you skeptical given the titans have struggled even at times when aj brown has been healthy We saw aj brown back in the lineup last week and I still took the under prop for tana hill's passing yardage and it hit because Titan's offense with aj brown back. Is he helpful? Absolutely. He's just another player that you have to defend But does he make this offense who still doesn't have jerry kenry? Even more of a threat I'm going with no because in 11 games this season with brown in the lineup Tana hill has still thrown for under 220 passing yards including last week's win over san francisco So He is there and they he is making some big plays It's just not a high potent passing offense They still rely heavily on that run game and the titans best defensive strength I like the dolphins in this spot plus three and a half and I I'm not quite I'm not there yet on taking the money line But I do love the plus three and a half points because the titans best defensive strength is defending the run Miami doesn't run Rushing yards they're averaging three yards per rush play on first downs That's the fewest in the league and they're 31st for explosive rushing plays So even with aj brown back This is a miami team that is doing really well in the passing game as of late with toa and miami's defense They lead in sacks and turnovers. This is the biggest thing for me They lead in sacks and turnovers now in their last seven games. This miami defense has generated 29 sacks and nine interruptions Do we not forget how tana hill just a few a few games ago? He doesn't do very well against quarterback pressure. He had a 4.8 passing average against pittsburgh He was sacked four times in a loss He had a 4.4 passing average against new england two sacks and a loss and even against houston He had four thrown interruptions Now and then plus he had seven sacks against the jets earlier this season and a loss So I think that's going to be the biggest matchup aj brown is great to have You can't throw him the ball if you're spending all the time on your back Yeah, the ryan tana has the fourth highest or the titans as a team of the fourth highest sack rate in the end of Veldas you're facing a defense that loves to bring pressure. So He's going to be under heat and ryan tana hill has shown throughout his career that when he's under heat You can get some bad variants and that that can definitely be a thing here And I think if that does lend itself to at least like like you said considering the money line here Just because there is some volatility and when there are more volatile situations I'm more okay taking as you alluded to a risk in going with the money line versus the points And I do understand that people are going to look at the dolphins and say oh, but who have they played I get it you played the houston's you played the jets you played the panthers you played the giants These are some of the worst quarterbacks Is tana hill up there. Is he a top half quarterback or is he a bottom half quarterback? I think without derrick henry He's really shown that he's kind of he kind of is just he can get the job done But he's not doing anything that's going to like jump off the wall jump off the pages here So this is a very live underdog Miami taking the points because it's maybe tua does enough to get the job done offensively But more so it's going to be this miami defense that is attacking tana hill when they need to I remember checking out the dolphins playoff odds like five weeks ago and feeling very stupid But just because I was like why am I checking this but hey they're still kicking They're still alive heading into this week That is pamela malden auto makes you check her out on twitter at pamela m35 and check out all those bowl game write-ups over at yahoo and check out all of her work there pamela We appreciate the time good luck to you with the rest of your ball bets and on the nfl side of things Hope uh 2021 is good to you hope 2022 is great as well. And hopefully we will talk to you once again here soon Yes, happy holidays and happy new year to you guys. Thank you appreciate it That's all thank you sir. It's so much. I appreciate it pamela. Yeah, thank you for having me Yeah, how's everything going? Good, um, I was just telling jim that the weather here in texas has been insane And we're in a tank top every single day because it's 80 degrees. We haven't had any bit of cold weather Um, so that's been weird Yeah, because you got ice around this time a lot of times. No, no, we usually don't get ice. They got ice this time last year Yeah, the blizzard we had like 10 inches of like ice and snow and I don't know Maybe we're gonna get that again because it's so warm right now Who knows we got like half an inch like maybe not even half an inch of ice like A week ago here in minnesota and I still can't like walk the dog on the street I had to like walk in the field because I just like it's miserable ice sucks So glad you're not dealing with that, you know, I'll take 70 over that every time How are you things going to do Ed? They're good. They're good. Uh, Just trying to balance work and hanging out with my boys are home this week. So Trying to balance that a little bit, but That balance is so hard when you're in the sports betting industry Yeah, well, I mean, I think it's hard everywhere, but This time of year, it's miserable. Yeah, this time of year is really bad for us that You're true I took yesterday off and like trying to catch up from being off for one day in the middle of an f l week It's just a nightmare. Yeah, it's it's it's kind of rough. It's kind of rough. Yeah I took a couple days off winter chicago last week, which was really nice, but But yeah, yeah And family hey, I'm gonna spend new years with you except I'm gonna be watching the television, right? Yeah These idiots physically around the final game on new year's eve Maybe maybe this year it's gonna work out because we have COVID situations again and I don't think it's gonna work out. I hope not. I want to go back to new year's day. What is this? Oh, no, you can you can compete with the rose bowl and the sugar bowl Like people are gonna watch the semifinal games, especially this would have been a great year for it because you have new blood Yeah, exactly different teams. It's great. You could have expected that but yeah, yeah, no kidding. Okay, guys. Well, as I shag you Appreciate it. Great. Happy new year. You too. Thank you. Appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you once again to Pamela Maldonado for swinging by and breaking down her thoughts on the college football playoff semifinals And nfl week 17 and ed one game she touched on there was the Notre Dame versus oklahoma state game Notre Dame two and a half point favorite pretty interesting game there given The trajectory and I think the the way the Notre Dame played Down the stretch this year For sure. I had Notre Dame as one of my three over-rated teams heading into the season I do this based on the ap poll which is actually a pretty good predictor of team strength and and future performance And the real reason was the defense they brought in Marcus Freeman as the defense coordinator They lost a lot of talent from last year, but that that defense was still pretty amazing this year and Yeah, he's not the head coach. So they had a pretty seamless transition In some sense, right? Just promoting the the dc. He'll be the head coach in this game It'll be his first game as head coach. So I do think they're pretty good My numbers actually think this is a much closer game than the markets think they do respect oklahoma state So, but yeah, I mean kudos Notre Dame. I mean that's that's a pretty great season given that they Had to replace a lot more production than almost every other team in college football Coming into this year. Yeah, they it was a weird year because There was the non-eligibility year. So the retention rates are so much higher than usual The team is deviated. What's that? Everywhere else. Yeah, everywhere else. Yeah, the ones that deviated were Notre Dame And then like northwestern is the one that we're the loss a lot of production That one actually mattered Notre Dame one. Uh, not as much Watching Ian book on monday. You can kind of see why it may not have mattered as much Well, at least on the offensive side of the ball that uh, they lost some production there Let's move now to covering the future for this week and add you you teased it before you're talking about the colts For this week facing the raiders uncertainty around karson wenz. What's your read on colts versus raiders? right, so The biggest deal in this game is that karson wenz is on the covet list And right now it looks like rookie sam ellinger from texas is going to start this game The nfl changed their quarantine rules. So uh, and unvaccinated player like wenz could actually come back off this covet list on sunday and play The mark doesn't move from six and a half to seven favoring the colts Which suggests that that is a very likely scenario. Uh, you know wenz actually playing But I mean, I think I've talked about it on the show before like my numbers really dislike the colts I mean the pass offense is awful even with wenz. They're 22nd when I look at my adjusted success rate And the offense has really been reliant on big plays from from jonathan taylor You know just for one one example of the the colts ineptitude on passing against new england wenz had 49 passing yards after you subtract out the eight yards from a sack So they haven't been productive there. They've been really really reliant on taylor big plays I don't think that's sustainable. I know I've said that before But you know, it's also like the pass defense is also a problem as well My numbers, uh, put them in the bottom part of the nfl at 24th when I look at adjusted success rate Now you look on the other side of the ball and it's been a crazy season for las vegas, obviously The whole gruden issue changing coaches darin waller hasn't been around but then You kind of look and they're eight and seven and squarely in playoff contention And they're probably the definition of an nfl average team Um, which I think you could have kind of projected At the beginning of the season their past offense has traditionally been very good with their car and You know just a couple breaks on defense, uh, and that defense looked pretty good for a little part of the season Right now when I do my predictions like I mean, they're they're like just a smidge under nfl average And I think that's exactly where they belong Um, you know the defense, uh, like I said was Pretty good at the beginning of the year They've regressed a little bit their 20th when I look at my adjusted passing success rate But they can still throw the ball, uh, you know, derrick car has Is leading the fourth best pass offense With my adjusted success rate, um, you know, even the last two weeks without darin waller. They've, uh, Had a success rate over 50 against cleveland and denver Those are two of the better past defenses in the nfl this year And the nfl average for passing success rate is about 44 So they haven't really put the points on the scoreboard those last two games But, um The the underlying fundamentals have been there It's also an intriguing game too because you got a bunch of guys on the covet list like kasey hayward and darin waller And guys who could come off on sunday waller's been hurt too. So You know, I kind of I think I've read that he practiced wednesday or practiced earlier this week You were supposed to turn on wednesday, I believe but then it got covet Yeah, so now he's on the covet list Um hayward played last week, but he's on the covet list as of monday. He could come off So there's a lot of question marks there Um, you know, my number to see this is a much closer game. I have colts by about two Um, so I do see value given all the uncertainty. I think a lot of I could play in my favor So, uh, I like the raiders side here The raiders are a really weird team because I have a pretty big downward adjustment my numbers for them without henry rugs Like I manually tweak it to account for that And despite that it had value on them versus the browns before the covet stuff cropped up Should value on them last week against the broncos. I have no idea why they weren't underdog against your lock That was wild This week it has and this is again I think my numbers tend to be lower on the raiders if you assume wence plays and is good to go It has this game at six and a half if you put ellinger in there It's a 1.4 and the way that wence works the logistics of it He can be activated on saturday. He must be activated saturday in order to go Oh really? He could be activated saturday And not cleared sunday morning. So we could get a news at 4 p.m. On saturday. Hey the colts activated karson wence That does not mean he will play because he has to be activated by sunday But then they take up a roster spot. He could still not clear a protocol on sunday morning and still sit So even if we get past that hurdle of four o'clock on saturday that hey, he was added to the roster You know they they they you would think that he'd play that's not a guarantee at that point So when I look at this number and see seven My numbers say 6.5 your numbers say two and if I Assume that there's like a 10 chance karson wence sits and it's at 1.4 if I get that 10 outcome I feel like that to me says I should probably just take the raiders and see how things break, right? I certainly think so I'm on that side too and and remember I mean wence is presumably on the list because he tested positive And you have less protection against covet if if you're unvaccinated So there's that whole issue. He's sitting at home this week Working out. Maybe I mean we don't really know right So yeah a lot of uncertainties I'm rolling the dice with this one And I I mean you could you could see a situation where waller and hayward come back and wence is out And I don't know where the market would move towards that I would really like my chances of where I'm at right now. Yeah, I think the the Waze this game sets up I can't I can't see up around to backing the the colts at seven the raiders very easy to do do a plus seven here in this game also I think The raiders win their last two games they're in the playoff And there's probably some situations. I mean there's at eight and seven there squarely have a lot to play for right A talented offense even without waller I'll take my chances the playoff picture is a wild wild mess this year. I love it, but it's a wild that is for sure Okay, so moving on to mine a lot of the sides my numbers like this week are ones I am very wary of it's a lot of big spreads and when I back test my numbers They don't perform as well on bigger spread. So I'm you know taking the rob pazola approach, right? I want to go towards those If I can avoid it There is one they like that I'm on board with and it's not a bigger spread. It's a small spread That's the stealers a plus three and a half against the browns and most of this is due to skepticism around the browns After accounting for likely unavailability for each team across the league The browns are 19th in my power rankings. The sewers are 24th That gap is five spots, but the actual like numbers gap between them not all that large It seems like there's a bit of a recency bias here with the stealers because yeah They just got whipped by the the cheese 36 10, but and they look bad doing it They look bad all the time But like sometimes, you know, they can look bad and win they beat the titans 19 to 13 They had that big near comeback against the vikings week before that They won 2019 versus the ravens before that So, you know, that's not doesn't matter a lot because ravens are not great But they are above the browns in my power rankings Right now my numbers say that cleveland should be a point six point favorite We're getting this number at three and a half which leaves a good amount of wiggle room We do get the hook there at three and a half So with a three and a half at minus 115, I bet we get to three Before kickoff on monday. So I am good taking this number right now betting the sewers are plus three and a half and Riding with them as home dogs. I think that this one actually does set up pretty well To ride with the steelers here. It is not fun to bet on big ben I have had had to do it several times recently It's worked out. It does not make me feel good, but I'm going to do it once again And what do your numbers say about browns versus steelers? Yeah, my numbers agree with you. I have cleveland by about one So they should win the game but a very tight toss a type situation If uh, I mean if you're going to get pittsburgh on the the high side of three Certainly suggests value there. Yep. I will take that for sure. Okay So our numbers are and likes the raiders plus seven and I like the steelers plus three and a half That is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread But I want to give a big thank you once again to pamela maldonado for swinging by and breaking down her thoughts on the college football playoff semi finals and nfl week 17 check out all of her work over at yahu and give her a follow on twitter at pamela m 35 once again a bigger minor to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast will be going throughout the playoffs and throughout the College football season to get set for the national championship once it comes and much more and of course the nfl playoffs too Hit subscribe and again if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Ed what is going on for you this week at the power rank? So i'm writing my uh email newsletter So a couple newsletters are going out this week tomorrow morning Friday morning would be my last three insights into those uh semifinal games both of them And um, yeah sign up for that at the power rank dot com All righty and find ed on twitter at the power rank. I'm at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast You can find our daily fantasy podcast for nfl week 17 up on the number fire daily fantasy Podcast that has been posted already as well big. Thank you to everyone for tuning in Thank you for tuning in throughout the entirety of the 2021 calendar year have a happy Safe and healthy new years. We'll talk to you once again in 2022. Good luck with your bets This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network What's up guys? This is jordan spieth if you're watching this video Please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel