 This is Covering the Spread part of the Fandall podcast network A fantastic slate of games across men's college basketball conference tournaments for today We've got the semi-finals in the ACC in the big 12 quarter finals in the big 10 and the SEC as well We're gonna break it all down today with Riley Thomas of Fandall research getting his read on today's key games Letting you know where he sees value at Fandall sports book that we'll talk some EPL with Austin cast later on as well This is covering this spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Join you to kick things off by Riley Thomas. You can find a Riley on Twitter at underscore Riley 8 He is a writer for us at Fandall research Riley welcome on into the show. How you doing today? I am doing great Jim How about yourself? It's a pleasure being on. Thanks for having me I am doing delightful and we were talking to us before about how nice it is to have stuff that we can like have on During the day now when we had Aiden Cotter on on Wednesday asked him, you know, what's the setup? So for you is there like a monitor in front of you you have games on is there a TV with an eyesight? What's what's your like go-to setup when there are like 16 games going on at once? I'm a bit overboard. I have every device imaginable. I got like two monitors. I got a tablet We got a tablet cooking here. I got a tablet with a little stand. I got everything I if there's five games on I'm having five games on so whatever I can do always got the game Going so how long did you to refine this this it sounds like a next-year level process for game consumption? Yeah, I mean in the past it was just one TV next to me and then I was like, you know what? I need more devices like one. Yeah, like I need more than one game, especially this time of year Like March madness. I have to have every single game on I can't miss anything So I'd say in the last like years, so I've gotten it down for sure. I love it now You're wearing Kentucky shirt for today. They got Texas A&M later on Kentucky favorite by four and a half So I gotta ask how you feeling about that? I'm feeling great. I mean, I'm cautiously optimistic right now about this team, but it seems like the talents lining up We've been rolling recently. I I mean, I like Kentucky's chances of winning SEC without going to two in-depth with it, but That's that there's a lot of good teams there. Yeah, but they look good right now So I'm pretty optimistic for tonight for sure and we'll get to discuss Kentucky next week, too Because Riley we with us next week talking about some of the round of 64 games So next week jam packed week talking brackets talking Individual days will talk the women's bracket as well all right here on covering the spread So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe But if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or over on Spotify as well Of course, you can find this show as always on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus now Riley We're gonna dig into games here in a bit But I don't want to talk to you about your overall betting process first because obviously you're watching a lot of games And that's a key part of betting as well kind of having that eye test factor But what steps do you go through before you want to place a bet on a college basketball game? Sure. Yeah, I think it's a great question because I think I think college basketball is pretty unique in terms of when you compare it to other sports Because I mean what other sport are you looking at that has you know, 360 teams, you know So there is a lot that goes into it I think it's even more difficult now with the roster turn over you see every year I mean the transfer portal and I L is just making it more and more I mean, I need two months to start really learning these teams because I mean I'll be watching the game January and I'm like when did this guy transfer right had no idea So I think the biggest thing is trying to look for consistency. That's the biggest thing I look for first is just how has this team been playing the last two weeks because these teams change so much over to say Three weeks to four weeks. So I think it's important to keep in mind I do obviously want to lean on the metrics and look at metrics and try to make sure that you're getting consistent data from say You know Ken Palmer or Bart Torvik everything's lining up But at the same time I think it's important to keep in mind that you know This doesn't necessarily tell the whole story because that team from you know, say in January Sure, they're a lot they were a lot different than then what they are now So I kind of try to look at what they've been playing like recently and then from there I'll kind of dig in the metrics more and I try to not make it too complicated You know, just a typical try to compare You know, how's this team defend the three out of this team shoot the three etc And just try to find the matchups to exploit really So it sounds like the starting process for you is you know Getting a feel for what a team has done recently and then you go to the data after that It's kind of like a check. Is that correct? Yes, sir. Yeah, for sure because I think something else That's interesting with college basketball as well as you'll see a Team randomly just start shooting the three at 40% a clip for five games But they're only shooting 27% on the year So it's like, you know, you want to have those things to somewhat match up as well So right. Yeah, it's it can be difficult, but that's that's typically what I do Yeah, okay, I think that makes a lot of sense. Let's talk here about some games as mentioned It's a really fun slate for today. Let's start things off in the ACC semi-finals For tonight in the ACC looking at those two games any bets you like at fangirls Sportsbook for tonight Riley Yeah, I'm definitely leaning into North Carolina tonight. I have loved what I've seen from them Pittsburgh comes off a win against Wake Forest Pittsburgh has a lot to play for I know they're pretty squarely on the bubble there So I went for them would be huge tonight, but I've just liked too much. I see how North Carolina I'm leading especially with what the odds are at right now. I like them covering seven and a half I would even take them to cover eight. Honestly They played each other in January North Carolina one bat that by 13 They won the rebounding battle by 12 I think that's the biggest thing for North Carolina Especially going into the NCAA tournament next week as they're such an elite rebounding team I'm knee have Armando Baycott and Harrison Ingram They're both in the top like 11 and defensive ring that rebounding percentage in the ACC I mean this this team can rebound and then you got guys that can take over a game and score like RJ Davis Pittsburgh's defensive back court isn't the best. So I think he could be a potential prop to target tonight as well his points So I'm loving with Carolina tonight for sure because they've been rolling That number for the UNC pick game is the seven and a half as Riley mentioned minus 108 on the UNC Side of things now obviously Motivation is going to be pretty disparate between these two teams because Pitt trying to get to make the tournament Like you said UNC has higher aspirations based in the way. They've played so far this year Does that worry you at all? Given that the motivation may be a bit different between these two. I See the thing for me I debated that and I think the thing for me where I'm staying North Carolina is they have a real shot at a One-seed here. I think if they win this tournament and then I think there's a real chance that Tennessee does not win the SEC Tournament just because it's a tough conference right Tennessee was to lose North Carolina wins this tournament I think they get the one-seed so I think they run there's still plenty to play for so Yeah, that's where I'm not too worried about it. So I think you know they see that one seed They know it's there and they can get it for sure Okay So plenty on the line despite the fact they are not playing for their tournament lives here is a rally on UNC minus seven and a half in the big 12 a couple semi-finals Texas Tech Tough task for them taking on Houston Baylor facing Iowa State anything send out to you in the two big 12 games for today Riley Yeah, I'm really looking at that Iowa State Baylor game I think that has a chance to be the best game of the night. I mean you see see the one and a half I mean that it's gonna be a close one So the two played in February Iowa State fell short by two on the road But I'm really high on the cyclones for the tournament. I really am. I mean they can defend they have guards you got Timon I think it's Taman. Sorry if I mispronounce. I have a Taman. Let's see he's Sean Gilbert I mean these are two guys that are double-digit scoring guards. So I mean they have that they can play defense and I think the thing with Baylor that could be trouble for this game is Typically, you know, they can really shoot the three and they have been this year But they've been under 30% last two games and for Iowa State, they love to pack the paint They're gonna defend the rim. They barely give up two point shots. So if you can't make threes against this team I mean good luck scoring. So I think I'm kind of concerned about that for Baylor tonight If you're not making the three, it's gonna be tough So I'm definitely on Iowa State with a minus one and a half for tonight because if Baylor can't make the threes It's I think it's raps now from a film perspective when you watch Baylor Do you think they have the personnel to be better shooting outside? Or do you think that what they've been doing recently is more indicative of what you would expect going forward? You know, I think that's the tricky part is you don't you don't know how long this cold streak's gonna go And I absolutely think right better than that. I mean if you look at their percentage for the year They can shoot better than that. I mean who knows it could flip tonight, but I just have a hard time just Guessing they're gonna start making them. But I mean they definitely have it I mean they have several guys, especially in that backward that can really shoot the ball So who knows I mean they could get hot and it could turn for March madness I mean hey, that's what happened a couple years ago and they won it all. So But yeah, we'll see. All right So Riley is on Iowa State minus one and a half for tonight taking on Baylor That is minus 110 for Iowa State in that one. No semi-finals in the Big 10 But we get to see the top seeds in action produce playing Illinois Obviously the best team in the tournament Northwestern playing tonight when you look at the Big 10 Riley anything say after you there Yeah, I think another game that I'm really looking forward to is Ohio State in Illinois You know, I think it's been pretty clear that Illinois has been the second best team in that conference all year But Ohio State's become really interesting. They decided to move on from Chris Holtman on Valentine's Day actually some gift there, right? Yeah, it was a gift to Ohio State the way they played after that that's ever since I mean they first game without and they went against Purdue and I mean they they're on the bubble now they have a ton to play for Ohio State and I Am very hesitant on it. I won't go this risky But I think there's some good value to be had with the money line on Ohio State there because if they win this game I think you could argue they could get in I mean they need this game and the bubbles getting more and more tricky because the A-10 has turned into a mess. They're suddenly stealing a bid because everybody has like Dayton lost yesterday So the A-10 suddenly getting a bid and the bubbles are getting even harder for Ohio State. So they really need this game It'll be interesting because you know, and I really like to push the pace and score a lot and Ohio State's probably going to Look to slow it down, but I think I'm on the Buckeyes to cover here at the four and a half Because they've been shooting about 45% from three over the last four games Illinois they're in the bottom third of opponent three point percentage, I believe so I just I think Ohio State has the offense to hang in this even though Illinois is obviously a hard offense to stop So I like Ohio State to cover tonight. Now you alluded to the money line as well Ohio State's money line right now is plus one sixty the implied odds there are at thirty eight point five percent How much interest do you have in that as opposed to the spread or in a situation where you want to put a bit on the spread And a bit on the money line. How are you handling that dynamic with Ohio State here? Um, I for the most part I think I must stay away from the money line, but I'm definitely interested in it I think the problem for me is is Ohio State defense still is not great. You still can't ignore Illinois can really score the ball It's gonna be hard to keep Taryn Shannon and Marcus. Don't ask under wraps So I'm staying away from it, but I am so close to taking that money line because I mean they need this game It's tough, but I don't think they have the defense to win it Okay, so keeping it close maybe pushing to get the win But Illinois potentially still getting there, but Riley does like Ohio State plus four and a half Which is minus 110 right now at Fandall Sportsbook. I mentioned the SEC some fun games there We got other games. We didn't talk about in the Big 10 ACC, etc So when you look at the rest of the board for tonight Riley, where else is seeing value at Fandall Sportsbook? Yeah, there's there's a lot of good games tonight. I think the biggest one for me that I am Definitely on is Florida money line against Alabama. It's a plus 146. I believe last I checked Oh, it's up to plus 152 even though. Yeah But uh, yeah, I I really like Florida. I know they're kind of showing some Signs for concern recently there. They've been inconsistent, but they I mean they played Alabama on a first week of March and beat them by almost 20 and Alabama just they can't really defend. I mean, they're giving up almost 96 points over the last five games I think Florida has a slightly better defense in this and they have the guards that can run with Alabama I mean, you have Walter Clayton and Zion Poland both averaging over 15 a game I think just considering the way that Florida was able to just Really just trounce them in the last game I think they can get this game because I'm not I just I don't think Alabama has the defense really to just slow them down So I'm definitely on Florida tonight to win that outright So that money line as you mentioned now plus a 152 the applied odds there 39 a point seven percent is this a spot where you're gonna put a bit on the spread as well Just to give yourself some cushion or just full in on the money line for Florida here I'm full in I'm going all the way in on it Just I I'm really really nervous about Alabama being able to stop them I mean, they're they're bottom 15 in the nation and giving up fouls in Florida got 45 free throws the last game So Alabama just fouls non-stop Florida could live at the free throw line. I mean, I like them to win this all right Alrighty well, that is the Florida money line in that game taking on Alabama and that is Riley Thomas Make sure you find him on Twitter at underscore Riley aid and find his work at family research a lot of college basketball stuff going up over there both today and the rest of The rest of the NCAA tournament season. So Riley appreciate the time enjoy Hopefully all your devices stay fully charged for today. We'll talk to you again next week There's a pleasure being on. Thank you. Alrighty again Find Riley on Twitter at underscore Riley eight and check out his work over at Fandor research as well We're talking to me P. 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Hope is here as a gambling helpline MA org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 supporting Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping why or text hoping why in New York Now I limited slate this weekend in the EPL because they got some other stuff going on in the soccer world for this week But I did still want to get Austin Cass on the show here talk EPL Matt week 29 check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass He is a senior editor for us at Fandal research Austin a delight to get you on the show for today. How you doing? Doing really well. How are you Jim? I am doing great now I asked Riley how you still with Kentucky playing tonight But you've got Indiana taking on Nebraska in the big 10 tournament too. So I gotta ask you about that How are you feeling about indiana in this one on the men's side of things? Uh, not very good Pretty terrible last night it was tough to watch them They're missing trey galloway one of their normal starting guards and They've basically been without them for two games in a row and the offense has been look good But I don't know they've won a few in a row and seem to be playing a little better But I think I think Nebraska is going to take care of business tonight Nebraska is a four and a half point favorites. It sounds like Fandal sportswick feels the same as you do For that one there. So hopefully they could pull things out for you, but We'll see how that one goes for tonight. Okay Let's talk some EPL as mentioned Austin limited slate this weekend only four games across four matches across match week 29 Let's start things off with the the traditional markets. What are you seeing there as far as valued Fandal? So in saturday's uh Brentford and Burnley match. I really like Brentford to go over one and a half goals, which is minus 102 You can find that in the goals tab For much of the season Brentford has been a team that's looked pretty solid through the lens of expected goals But they haven't been getting results in the field The markets have been accounting for that for most of the year But as of late the poor results keep piling up and the markets really cooled on Brentford To the point where I think it's a pretty good time to pounce for the bees match up against the Burnley side That's likely going to be relegated Still think there's a good bit to like about Brentford even though they're 15th in the table by expected goal differential According to fb refs xg model Brentford is 10th The results haven't been good nightly as I've mentioned They've lost four or five with one draw in that span But they played arsenal chelsea min city in liverpool in four of those five matches So it's been a pretty brutal stretch schedule wise and even with the bad results They scored two goals and two of their last three games Burnley have given up the At least two goals in substrate matches and have the fourth worst defense by expected goals allowed So I really like Brentford's chances to score multiple goals In this one, I also don't mind Brentford's money on price of plus 115 But I prefer to take him at over one and a half goals at minus 102 Okay, so as mentioned that's in the goals to have a fandal sportsbook Brentford over one and a half goals minus 102 The money line that austin had discussed was where the draw is in play as well plus 115 For Brentford there the time no bet money line for Brentford is minus 166 So a couple different options as far as ways to potentially Bet Brentford here and match against a Burnley side. That is uh, not exactly in the best form right now Okay, so we're on that one Brentford over one and a half goals minus 102 any player props stand out to you across these games austin Well, yeah, so I actually I've got a player prop I like actually have another bet that I like just like a standard market bet if you're cool with that Let's do it. I'm fully in it's taught them full on matchup I like full them and draw on the double chance market at minus 135 um Last weekend taught them got a massive 4-0 victory. I'd asked him villa a result that Gives them a big leg up in the top four race and their four goals helped us cash over three and a half I was gonna say they they did all the work by themselves I think we should be grateful to taught them for at least a week But no you decided to stab them in the heart immediately We should we got really lucky taught them scored two goals in the last like five minutes of that And I know I had a guy sent off when it was 2-0 and I kind of killed the game And usually the team ahead taught them and would have just passed it around and been cool with going But that's not how taught them plays. So yeah Because like I didn't actually get to watch the match I woke up and I forgot about and I checked my like tracking app and I saw that it won And I was like, okay, cool. So I like went on my day I had no idea any of that happened. There was no stress on my on my part for that one I honestly I have given up on it and I yeah, I just I I saw later that that it had won and I was like, holy cow. What happened to Yeah, we got that and then the the sheffield united one was really crazy too. Yes. That was really fun weekend for us Yeah, it was Yeah, the sheffield one was a plus 230 and that was in this market So even though we are Reversing course on taught them at least we're going back to a market that was very kind to us last week Yeah, for sure So the reason I like fulham here is taught them pretty much that game last week was kind of a microcosm of their season They massively over performed xg. They scored four goals from 1.5 expected goals They've been doing that all year. They have 59 goals this season from 47 point out expected goals Their xg differential is barely positive yet. They're fourth in the table and a really great chance to be in the champions league Fulham haven't really been playing great. Uh, they're fifth worst by expected goal differential this season But they've been a little better lately They've won or drawn in five of their past seven matches with the two wins coming against Brighton and Manchester united The win against united was actually on the road too. So fulham's definitely been playing better And it's really been their attack that stepped up. They've amassed at least 1.2 expected goals in seven straight games Well, I'm weary of putting a little too much stock into a small sample I think there may be some validity here and my faith comes from the play of their striker, ridrigo muniez He started in each of their last six matches After starting just three times all season prior and he's really been a revelation He scored five times over the past six matches And also dished out one assist. So I really think they found something with him Uh, Tottenham have not been great defensively Prior to the clean sheet at Aston Villa They'd conceded eight goals across their past three away matches And as I've talked about several times on this show Their style is just really friendly for both themselves and the other team. There's just a lot of chances in their matches. So I think Fulham we're going to make it tough on Tottenham and I like fulham's chances of getting at least a draw Okay, so that is uh, the fulham and draw minus 135 in the double chance market for their match against Tottenham he mentioned that Tottenham is outperformed x g by a pretty wide margin And I'm curious what you think is the explanation for that because the explanation could just be variance and luck Like that could very well be the explanation. Is there something else that could explain why they've overperformed or Does it simply come down to we should expect them to regress going forward? I think it's probably mostly variance. Um They I would say defensively the way they play In the high press they deploy when they give up a chance It's typically a really big chance for the other team something that's going to count for maybe like half a goal x g ys right and sometimes Those chances look easier on Like a computer screen for x g but they would be in real life sometimes It's a break where the the attacking teams got it looks they have an advantage, but The goalie's rushing out and just taught them kind of make it chaotic in the first half They they basically got dominated. They didn't even attempt a shot against Aston villa. Yeah villa had some chances, but all of those chances were Really rushed and chaotic things. I think they were down 0.66 to zero in x g at halftime They didn't taught them didn't create anything But it never really felt like villa had a really good chance to score if that makes sense. Yeah, but it's almost like They're kind of gaming the system a little bit, but I do think overall attacking wise they are going to regress over time That time may not happen this season. So I don't know they just keep doing it They keep getting away with it But hopefully that does not continue and their match against fulham That is that is this weekend again fulham and draw minus 135 in the double chance market Okay, I jumped the gun now. I'll ask you player props. Anything stand out to you there, austin Yes, so yeah, thanks for coming back to this. So this is actually my favorite bed of the weekend It's an Aston villa at west ham match And it's ollie wattkins to score or assist So anyone who's been watching me come on here at all It's not going to be surprised that I'm going through the goal or assist market We got burnt with uh, paid ronetto last week. He started and then he got hurt So that was that was a tough break there, but I'm going back to the well with ollie wattkins here In a lot of ways this this number feels like too good to be true He's been one of the best players in the prim this season. He has 16 goals 10 assists through 28 starts This is a great matchup for him west ham have conceded the third most xg When they played at villa earlier this season villa 140 and Watkins had a goal and an assist It's really the only box that isn't checked for me is that wattkins is on the road and it's On short rest. They just played last night in a european game, but they were at home So they don't the travel shouldn't be too bad here but It's one of the league's best attackers going against one of the league's worst defenses, so I'm i'm pretty excited about this plus 105 line to be honest That's ollie walkins plus 105 in the west ham versus aston villa matchup. Do you think that the The rest angle is the reason why this number appears to advantage is in the the fact that he's on the road Are those the only two explanations you can get as far as why this number is where it is? Yeah, so I think the rest thing is probably has a lot to do with it west ham actually played last night as well european competition, but I think villa being Playing in europe, they're not quite ready for that yet their squad isn't ready for it And I thought against tottenham. They really got tired in the second half of the game and tottenham Wasn't doesn't have a european commitment this year So the villa was in the same situation last week. They had played a game midweek previously So I think that's probably it and maybe the market is slightly overreacting to how bad villa got beat last week But in general it's probably the rest thing. I think you're right Um with Watkins, do you want to wait to see the lineup before you bet this one? Or are we pretty okay with that despite the fact they played last night? I'm pretty okay with it and I'd actually take it now. Um, it was plus one ten When I was doing research yesterday, and I think it's probably gonna end up Moving the other way. Okay, so yeah, I I would take it and With villa losing last week. They really Uh are have their backs against the wall to make the top four so they they're probably going to roll out their best lineup Okay, so uh be okay with taking that one right now the ollie walkins to score or assist at plus 105 on top of Brentford over one half goals minus 102 and fulham and draw minus 135 against tottenham Hopefully we can have a successful week once again this week as austin had last week That is all that we have here for today austin appreciate the time from you once again as always find austin on twitter at austin cast I enjoy not just the soccer, but also the college basketball. I know you love that as well So thanks for coming on and we'll talk to you again soon So I was gonna appreciate it. Good luck to your cast tonight. All right. We'll see how that goes My brother-in-law went to Wisconsin. So it's a family victory either way. I'm gonna use that as my go-to line To cope for when they inevitably lose but yeah, I think it'll be a fun game So yeah, yeah, I mean they should be safe regardless But uh with the injuries they've got I I've given up hope So I think I'm back to my like my baseline state of no hope So it feels comfortable and good, you know, like a nice fuzzy sweater. I'm back to no hope. It's great If I haven't told you before the year you're You're in a no sweat situation in the victim tournament and you're in the dance You probably would have taken that so I can't say no sweat because I am paranoid about them getting florida stated Because of their injuries. I am so worried about that it might not it might be okay But I'm worried so I can't say no sweat Dumb stuff happens with Northwestern all the time. So I appreciate it. Thank you I I will take my cope elsewhere, but thank you very much. Again, find us on twitter awesome cast I have my twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on or you can also find a fandal research on twitter at fandal research jam packed week next week So we've got five shows coming early on the week to get you ready for both the men's and women's college basketball tournaments Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread to get those shows as they go live. Have a fantastic week everybody Good luck to either bets. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network