 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network What a fun weekend of sports that was we had this blend of some really good NCAA tournament games We had the world baseball classic with an absolute thriller a couple nights ago And now we get to run it all back again the WBC final coming up tomorrow We've got more NCAA tournament action tonight on the women's side and then more coming up in the men's side on Thursday We got NBA NHL for tonight, too. That's what we're breaking down today with Austin Swain We're gonna need his read on both the NBA and the NHL Let you know where he is seeing value right now at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain find him on Twitter at a Swain 3 you can find his work over at number fire calm Austin Fantastic weekend the sports world. So, how are you doing on this delightful Monday? I? Have I'm doing well and the reason why is because I've mentally decided that it is way cooler that I had produced my national champion On my bracket this year because for years and years and years I'm gonna get to say I had Purdue the year they lost to that one seed that was one of the worst five teams To ever make the tournament. So I've got a story. I won't have any bracket pool winnings, but that is all right And that means I'm doing well. I was conflicted during that game because As a north-western fan, I feel like I should root for the big 10 But also it was a Purdue fan who dropped my wedding ring in a lake. So I was like kind of vindictive He was he's great about he's a very nice guy. He paid for the new one. No, no grudges. He's great I just was like I can't honor it against Purdue here a little bit So I was I feel bad to admit that I was ready against your bracket. So I'm sorry Austin. That's my bad I feel like the right narrative is what sunk you there actually. Oh Oh Yeah, we all kind of lean to the underdog though, even if it's gonna break your bracket It's like these guys these kids to play in a gym. That's like holds a hundred people. It's really cool story Yeah, I definitely lean towards underdogs. I picked Alabama and Houston to be in the national championship game Who won seeds Chaka Sanis over here? So we're still looking okay in that in that regard, but We're gonna talk more NCAA tournament stuff coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday here on the show Dr. Ed Fang with it is with us on Tuesday Well, let's talk on Friday to break down some of the elite games the Austin cast get his read on those So we'll be talking more basketball on this show here this week once again But for today, we're talking about the other basketball the NBA talks in NHL We're gonna check in on the NBA MVP market because there has been a lot of movement there even overnight last night There were some more so we're gonna talk about that and the implications of it in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You want to get this NC double a tournament shows as they go up? 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I'm talking trash about Purdue, but I also did pick boys. You say to win in my bracket, so Picked against my own school. Who am I to talk? Who am I to talk? Let's shift focus here and talk about some MBA and Austin. I was talking last night You were mentioning how you wanted to focus on the NBA MVP market because it has been a fascinating market to track here Especially the last couple of weeks a lot of evolution in this market and right now Joel Embiid is minus 190 to be the MVP It's been Nikolaj Wilkic for pretty much the entire year last night though and bead was minus 250 He's now minus 190 so some movement even overnight in this NBA MVP So we've seen this shift. We've seen another shift since then. How do you see this market playing out down the stretch? So I thought this market was done and over with when you and I were recapping awards After the all-star break It's very interesting because with this particular race It gets so much media attention that you don't typically see these wide shifts in the market so quickly But I think it started back at the end of January when Joel Embiid drops 47 points in 18 boards Head-to-head with Yoakage seemed to make a bit of a point of it, right? That kind of reopened the market as we crawled into the all-star break And then as much as people don't want to say that team success has a massive portion of this MVP award It apparently does because the Sixers 9 and 1 in the month of March Denver now 4 and 5 in the month of March But you might have seen that line movement because they got a big win on the road yesterday over Brooklyn And the unfortunate reality of this award is this is not a scientific process If there was a sort of calculation or analysis I could give you That would stand to what the votes of reason are going to be then I would give that But it's more subjective than you think and a lot of like team level beat writers They can't watch every single NBA game every game of Yanis every game of Embiid and Yoakage So they kind of lean on these advancement these catch-all metrics Like like I just happen to look at all the time and for the first time since 2019 at this late in the season Nicole Yoakage is actually not the leader and player efficiency rating It's actually Embiid by the tiniest of margins 32.0 to 31.8 But could this shift again? Absolutely these two go head to head in Denver next week one one week from today on Monday And I think that that is a huge seismic shift point on national television when we saw Embiid really start his candidacy With a similar head-to-head matchup. I almost think there's value on Yoakage at this number It was plus 380 last night looks like it is Whatever we got 300 right now and moving so it may not even be the same by the time you get to it But um, I have Embiid from plus 250 earlier this month. So just like as a personal strategy thing I'm thinking about taking Yoakage three to one for one unit. It just to lock in Uh a guaranteed profit no matter which guy ends up pulling out and getting ahead But there's definitely a turning point for such a long number on the board at three to one for Yoakage And that he could re overtake the player efficiency rating metric Denver could win more games coming in I think this thing's going right down to the wire. So a number that big is very intriguing to me Now the one concern with that with the hedge with going with Yoakage is that Yannis and Tatecumpo is also lurking here He's down to plus 440. Is he a consideration for you? Like do you think that he has a realistic shot or Is it really going to come down to just Embiid or Yoakage in your mind? I don't because the bucks are already in the one seed I don't think there's a team success element that they could necessarily have and think about Yannis He's fighting a thumb injury. He's fighting a knee injury Um, Anthony Davis is a similar guy where it's really hard to see them making progress in some of these individual races When they are having to set out games just because the body is failing them Yoakage and Embiid have been act as for for several games in a row now So, um, I don't see Yannis as a realistic third challenger But if these two were to fall off or you know, one guy gets hurt and then Embiid starts to fall off That's I think where you get Yannis is the obvious third choice And then the others are just long shot darts at this point with a clear established top three Yes, I think the clear inflection point lurking this market Is that game you mentioned the head-to-head match between the sixers and the nuggets coming up? So if you decide that you like Yoakage I would be trying to lock that in before then because inflection points are always Something you want to identify in markets and that is a big one coming just around the corner Okay, let's shift our focus now and talk about tonight's slate in at the nba It is a six game slate and awesome Let's start things off with the more traditional markets here in the nba any value you see right now over at vandal sportsbook So I love this warrior's rockets over. Uh, it's it's sitting at 238 on vandal sportsbook at minus 110 Um, the warriors have just been an over machine on the road this year That the conversation is about how they can't win games on the road They've only won seven games all year But I especially look at their defense on the road 26 of 36 warriors roads games have gone over the projected total this year So that's a a great trend to see that the markets kind of really having a hard time letting go Of what the warriors are at home defensively and they have a 126 defensive rating on the road this month Which is just awful. It's 126 for 100 possessions The rockets have a 115.5 defensive rating at home too So they are not a good defensive club the warriors are not these are two top half teams in pace I've got this line like personally closer to the warriors games. We saw this weekend against memphis or against atlanta One of those had 247 points total in atlanta. I would take this line up to 243 I see another really high scoring game and competitive game when you're not getting stops on the defensive end And it's they still played a lightning quick pace golden state number one in the nba pace And the wiggle room note you made there is important because this total has ticked up a bit It is now 238 and a half minus 110 so up a half point there So it does look like there is some interest in the over in this game for the warriors and rockets again 238 and a half right now minus 110 on the over there anything else you like in the more traditional markets in the nba Yeah, so I also find this this a little bit of a whack-a-mole type of betting line because the injured reporter is so deep in this one But I kind of like the mavericks on the road here Uh, they were sitting plus 100 last night now. They're sitting plus 114. So the line moving the other way I'm just kind of reading the tea leaves on the injury report here. Luca Doncic said he hoped to return Monday Practice fully thursday. So I think he is in a pretty good spot to return from a four game absence for the maps tonight Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes extremely effectively. They need to win this game I really can't see him setting it out But the the lead addition yesterday of jaren jackson to the injury report to me He is the single most impactful grizzly for betting. Maybe not the most flashy Maybe not the guy who most scores the points, but they have a plus 11.3 net rating with him on the floor Minus 1.9 without him. That's one of the biggest splits in the league for an individual player It's probably why he's gonna win the defensive to player the year award If he is even at remotely at risk of playing I love dallas in this game But I think I would even go ahead and take the nod on the fact that luka and kairi will return Memphis offensive rating has been in the toilet since jaws been out. He's still out conditioning for this one So I do like the maps is an underdog on the road here So right now that spread is plus two for the mavericks and minus 110 the money line for the mavericks plus 114 preference for you between those two markets I so I was on the money line at plus 100 I think I would I think I would still remain on the money line If that spread continues to creep my fear is that jackson is going to play That's the sentiment and the information that's being gathered. So I I am totally fine taking the mavericks to win right now I'd probably stay away from this entire if we got very early news Uh, the jackson was going to play but the the late ad and mba injury reports is never good news That is not good news as far as the guy's availability for that night. So seeing jackson last night was certainly a concern Okay, so that's 114 right now. Keep an eye on the the health for that mavericks grizzlies game Uh, but potential check out the mavericks money line for that one. What about player props in the NBA anything stand out to you there tonight? So jim, I'm going to play a little bit of a narrative. It's not based on the narrative But I am going to know we have a a kid returning to indiana who went to school at baller I'm going to take gordon hayward from the hornets over 19 and a half points in rebounds and minus 122 Uh on sportsbook. I am picking on indiana just like I did last time I was on with you The pacers really are an interesting defensive matchup. You could argue they're starting for traditional guards Even including erin the smith who's playing quote-unquote power forward for them They allow the third most rebounds in the mba because they just don't have very much size and the pacers specifically seed The third most points and sevens most rebounds to combo wings, which is how I classify hayward for my day job over and mba daily fantasy on fan duel Um, so he is a great matchup for him and I expect him to take more shots I only took four shots on saturday, but he's averaging almost 11 this month So I think he's more aggressive offensively. He's a real scrap threat to just score 20 points here But if I add on add in the boards in a plus matchup there, I do really like that combination for him In a little bit of a homecoming, right? Uh, what's the statute of limitations on a homecoming narrative because gordon hayward is uh, he's getting up there Does that expire at any point? I think like I love narratives So I should know this I should like have a rule for this But do you have a a baseline number as far as number of years before that expires? I I think a decade could be fine I mean when you have the shot that is still getting played on nca tournament highlight reels that you and I've been watching All over the past week. I think that's fine It's a little bit less Special that the hornets visit the pacers far more often than his jazz did back when he was in utah They'd come once a year whereas, you know, you get two or three trips into india and it's like, okay Give it a rest. Yeah, right Okay, I think the the fact that it's march. Maybe that adds to the narrative that extends it's a little bit longer So indiana in march, maybe that's the narrative we go with here. Uh, the number was hayward over 19 and a half Points plus rebounds. That's minus 128 at fandal sportsbook. Okay before we wrap up mba anything else stand out to you before we close up shop I I think I've already uh bitten off more than I can chew on just a six game slate. So let's talk some puck I love it. Let's do that. It's a five game slate on the the nhl side of things What you see in there starting with the traditional markets austin So i'm actually gonna go against my favorite team, which is probably a good sign Anytime someone's going to say, oh, this doesn't look good for my favorite team That is that someone you should listen to because that is fan pessimism and knowledge coming out But I actually like the chicago blackhawks plus one and a half. They're visiting my hometown, colorado avalanche here Number sitting very heavy for a one goal spread plus 146. It is really about the number here Uh, just 40.7 percent implied But we expect here at number fire chicago to cover 57.3 of the time So a huge gap I get it nobody's rushing to to bet on the blackhawks, especially if they cleaned out their talent After the trade deadline, but there are two prohibitive things working in the blackhawks favor here The avalanche are not scoring a ton of goals at present 12th fewest expected goals for 60 minutes since february 1st It's really hard to cover a spread if you have a trouble scoring yourself, you know, you can be dominant defensively win one nothing The abs aren't scoring very well right now. And the second thing is that the blackhawks projected starter alex stalock He's actually been stellar this year. He's like a piece they can build on despite the last year He has 7.10 goals saved above expectations and gsax is a cumulative stat kind of like war and baseball The fact he's only played 20 appearances so far and already has that many goals saved above expectations He's been excellent. So, uh, I think you could even give the goal tending not to chicago here May stands on his head a little bit and this is about the juice But I do think the blackhawks keep things tight uh at ball arena tonight Yeah, that is plus one and a half for the blackhawks and the puck line at plus 140 as you mentioned They've had some two and a half um recently So they're uh the market not very high on the blackhawks right now Justified, you know, you get it for sure, but uh, it's still a big number for sure anything else you like in the hl for tonight austin So, uh, we're gonna look at a very intriguing game western conference wildcard races heating up and the calorie flames visiting the los angeles kings I like the king's money line here. Um, they were sitting minus 114 last night Looks like they're minus 113 right now. So it hardly hardly is budged But uh, if you're a los angeles fan, you really should say oh your entire playoff bound season to phoenix cupway The the netminder for la rescued one of the worst gold sending situations in the entire sport You're talking about two of the worst eight guys in the sport by that gsa x x metrics that I gave you Uh, cupway's been very good. Um, seven point five zero gsa x yaka markstrom has really struggled here for calgary um In he's at a flat zero as far as that metric that is 58 that a 92 qualifying goalie So he has not been very good. Los angeles has the gold tending edge here These squads both top six and goals expected goals scored top four and expected goals allowed So these are two of the hottest teams in hockey playing the best right now But one of them has an excellent goalie that is cupway at home on rest So I do like los angeles to win and by the way number fires modoff has him about 65 to win here Against 53 implied it's it's favorite bet of the day That is a wide margin for sure. So that's the king's money line their overall money line not to win in regulation Overall money line minus 113 for the kings against the flames for tonight. How about player props? What you see in there for tonight? So I saw one that that was kind of interesting I'm gonna look at a game that isn't going to be very competitive And I don't even know if I'd recommend to watch the oilers and sharks in edmonton The sharks kind of limping home here, but I do like ryan new jen hopkins over one and a half points It's sitting at plus 140 When I gotta match up this good It's a little bit, you know, kind of square But I think I'm just gonna take it because new jen hopkins has scored 11 points in his last eight games next to leon dryside'll connor mcdavid on the power play Sharks allowing the third most expected goals since february 1st So they're struggling defensively recently here comes this offensive juggernaut in edmonton with two of the best guys in the sport And rnh gets to play alongside and He's really playing a lot the thing about edmonton. They're not very deep So even in blowouts they play their guys quite a bit new jen hopkins over 17 minutes of ice time In every single game since the all-star break and some top shelf forwards don't even average 17 minutes on the ice They just play their dudes a lot that helps with the blowout potential especially in a matchup like this Number fire hasn't projected for 1.36 points in a median But when I've got plus 140 juice here that that is a really good proposition for new jen hopkins In such a delightful matchup Yeah, so 1.36 the average there and you're getting If you're getting to two points, that's not a bad mark plus 140 So you want You know, I think that that makes a lot of sense, especially if you are Thinking that they keep their guys in the ice despite a potentially wide score I think that all makes a lot of sense. So again, if you go to the sharks and oilers points slash assist market Ryan new jen hopkins over 1.5 points is plus 140 right now fandals sports again for these sharks and the oilers match up Alrighty austin, that's all we got for you for today. I want to thank you for coming on once again We'll get you back on here again in the very near future Go recoup after a fun weekend sports and we'll talk to you again the very near future Sounds good. Jim. I'll see you soon Alrighty that is austin sway make sure you check him out on twitter at a swayne three Now do you want to go back through last week's show before we close up shop for today? Just recap the show here both in terms of the ncda tournament and The nascar race in atlanta just from a transparency perspective. Let's start things off with our two ncda tournament shows last wednesday Those were austin cast and ben stevens ben stevens of sports grid austin cast a number of fire Check out austin on twitter at austin cast you can find ben on twitter at ben scott stevens and find him on the morning after On sports grid as well. Let's start things off with austin He previewed thursday's games the one future that he liked was drake to make the sweet 16 At plus 4 20 or ken state to make it at plus 5 20 and both those teams were competitive in the first round neither could advance but They did keep it somewhat close So competitive games couldn't quite get there on those kind of long shot futures to make the sweet 16 As far as individual games austin went two and two the wins were northwestern over ucla Or sorry over boyz state that have been sick Northwestern over boyz state at minus 120 and then they had the auburn iowa over at 151 and a half auburn iowa first half was a brick fest They could not make a shot either side second half though they hit the over pretty easily still so Over 151 and a half a win there for austin and again the northwestern money line against boyz state The losses for austin were utah state money line against mizu and then oral roberts plus six and a half against duke So Tough luck on the oral roberts one given how poorly they played early on that game It kind of made it where it was a non-competitive match But again check out austin on twitter at austin cast living back on friday We're gonna talk some college basketball with him then to preview the elite eight saturday games The oral roberts game also bit ben stevens. He mentioned like the overall on their team total at 69 and a half They again couldn't get a bucket early on finished with 51 points. So Couldn't get that one there, but the friday bedster ben were three and two Uh, the wins were f a u money line at plus 102 He had miami won this one and a half against rake at minus 120 and then kraton Minus five and a half uh, the two losses were ben were gonzaga minus eight and a half the first half line And then ken states plus four and a half in their game So overall about 50 50 on the show here last week on the college basketball side of things I think the bracket advice from uh ed and ben is looking pretty good so far given they were lower on perduing kansas pretty high on Uh on both alabama and houston. So that looks good so far still a lot left to be decided there We'll see how things play out on the ncda tournament side of things as mentioned ed is back with us tomorrow Talk about the thursday games in the suite 16 I ran through nascar stuff on wednesday's show uh for atlanta podium bets I mentioned there were bubba walls plus 650 eric jones 11 to 1 bubba wrecked pretty early got three laps down couldn't make those laps up so He finished. I think 27th in that race jones. No podium at plus 111 or uh plus 1100 But top 10s did go better at eric jones there plus 250 austin dillon plus 360 tie gibbs six to one And then those were like the three like locked in ones I liked lots other ones where I was showing values that my favorite was michael mcdowell Though I was less high on him the gibbs one hit he ran well the entire third stage You know, he kind of hung out in the back early on but he ran really well I thought that he actually showed a lot of patience which is always the concern with gibbs that attract like this He was pretty good though. So the gibbs six to one Cashed uh dillon did not plus 360 i'd mentioned coyla joy on the show at five to one didn't Lock him in as a bet here. He wasn't the betting guy to number fire So hopefully you read that in addition to checking out the podcast here But no credit for that uh based on just the show Jones plus 250 top 10 qualified poorly. He got loose on his uh his warm-up lap qualified 28th So starting pretty far back and he ran pretty far back the entire race was not aggressive Didn't try to do anything and I'd kind of written him off as a loss He crossed the start finish line with to get one lap to go in 17th place He then wove his way through traffic and finished 8th NASCAR's official like twitter account put up a video of like his in-car camera He went three wide two separate times got a massive push down the back straight away finished 8th So I'm not sure if I deserved to win that but I'm gonna take it every single day. Um, I think that it was uh I think that he's a it was still a good process because he's a very good pack racer We saw that skill in the last lap and that matters We saw the The finishing order was very pack-esque with la joy in fourth tie Gibbs in the top 10 You had jones up there in the last lap as well So I think the process was good. Maybe it was lucky in terms of results But I think that the process was there So good week for top 10s with the Gibbs six to one jones plus 250 He helped you grab the joy at five to one as well via the petting guide But overall feel good about that coda the circuit in the americas a road course coming up this week I think that's gonna be a fun one. We'll try to find time to talk about that likely on wednesday I would guess when we have Awesome time to talk college after we talk college basketball So either wednesday or thursday breaking down some NASCAR at circuit of the americas That is all that we have here for today's show though once again a big thank you to austin swain Check him out on twitter at a swain 3 find his work over at number fire dot com I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s if you want to get our nc double a tournament shows as they go live throughout this week Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts and again If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review and also check us out over on the fan dual youtube page Good luck to all you tonight. If you're betting nba nhl We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the sweet 16 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network