 Hello and welcome back to our special 2016 year in review. It was another big year for the RBA. 2016 saw two interest rate cuts as the central bank tried to balance the forces of low inflation and rising house prices. Carson Scott takes a look at the year that was for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Continuity through volatility. That has been the Reserve Bank in 2016. A change of Governor from Stevens to Lowe. Two cuts to the cash rate to negotiate in May and August. And as usual, those offshore headwinds. Brexit. Trump. Always China. And now the ratings agency is telling the government it's time to act. Stop relying on these guys to do your dirty work. From the left, Shane Oliver, A&P Capital. David Bassanese. Beta Shares. Mark Bailey. Fig. Coming together as they did through 2016 to comment, to give insight and to chart a way forward on what the central bank will be likely doing next. We end 2016 having ridden through turbulent months and indeed final days of this year. Markets look to have grown up though, since all the worries from yesteryear. Is that an encouragement for the Reserve Bank or are there things that we're not paying heed to and even they might be underestimating into 2017? What's top of their list? I think it's true that when you look globally, a lot of fear at the start of 2016 and then all those worries about Brexit, about Trump, about Italy and of course what happened on each of those things, markets actually rally. We still have the promise and it only remains a promise of pump priming by the world's largest economy. It's a wing and a prayer he's never ever had to deliver on it before. Why believe them now? Bonds are really going a bit, hey wire, are they not in the year like that? Yeah absolutely. I mean they're pricing in for this inflation that may or may not come through. I'm not sure where you're going to see inflation. I'm not sure whether that bond market route and let's not forget it's just government bonds, not really corporate bonds which are different and I think a lot of investors are getting caught up in that equities versus bonds story. What is going to be the smoking gun to get this bank into further action? Is it going to be a realization that actually the ratings agencies are breathing down our neck and that any potential for further spending looks awfully heroic when you've got a divided set and I mean this is not just to sort of order it up and it'll come like China. Look I think basically the RBA will be driven by inflation. The next two CPI results we see that underlying inflation is still traveling below 2% plus growth probably closer to two and a half rather than three. Speaking of growth, we get February even before those quarterly numbers, we get a February assessment on the outlook. Will they downgrade Shane and is that if anything you're rash enough to ease on a downgrade rather than ease and stand still? I think the reality is that the Reserve Bank will have to downgrade their circa 3% growth forecast. That in turn must mean they're going to have to delay the rise in inflation back towards their target which ultimately I think will be the reason why we'll get another rate cut sometime in the next few months.