 It's August, and it's summertime in the Northern Hemisphere, and in particular in Canada and the United States, a lot of people do take August off. August numbers are often distorted, so it came in low. But what was most important was when we looked at the ADP number this week, because last month in the non-firm payrolls, both the non-firm and the private payrolls were way short. So if that number was correct, then we should have had a huge drop in ADP payrolls this month. We didn't get it. There was a big downward revision to ADP. It came in above 200 again. That tells me that it's odds are that there was a non-firm number from last month that was distorted and the private payroll number that accompanies that. So that's why we're looking for a big upward revision this month. ADP came in strong. Jobless claims have remained in. Strong jobless claims continued to decrease. Yesterday, they were down again. They continued to work their way lower. So we haven't seen any reason in any of the other employment indicators to suggest real softness out there. The job market in the U.S. is holding up quite well. So based on that, when we come into this month, coming off the 142K, we're either going to see one of two things happen this month. Either you'll get a small revision to last month and potentially a huge number on the headline number, or you could have a headline number somewhere around 200,000 and a big upward increase to non-firm payrolls. And both Michael and I have put our guesses up on Twitter. And Michael's at 180,000, revised up to 180, I was revised up to 190, which is pretty close either way. We're both thinking the same thing here. So we're looking for potentially a nice upward revision to non-firm payrolls at the same time as a continued steady headline number. Yeah, sorry about that, guys. I'm having a couple of technical problems here, which is basically making it very difficult to focus on talking to you guys at the same time as trying to think about the actual number. So I'm actually glad for Colin's little bit of input there. Yeah, I mean, basically what we're thinking is it's not just about the actual headline number, it's about the revision. And as I said, as Colin said, I'm looking for 180,000 revision. And also, it's worth looking at the average earnings numbers as well, because I think there's been an awful lot of expectation, and I think that was when we looked at the last FOMC meeting and the minutes, there was an awful lot of focus on the phrase, a considerable time in terms of when to expect the next interest rate rise. And I think at the end of this month, when tapering finishes, there'll be even more scrutiny on that particular phrase and whether or not it stays in in the statement that's issued after the meeting. There will be no press conference. So what'll happen is there'll be a meeting. Will they remove that statement? Now, the expectation for average earnings is for it to come in around about 2.2%, which is 0.2% above the Fed's inflation mandate, which is 2%. The Fed has a dual mandate, has to focus on unemployment, but it also has to focus on inflation. And if we get a significant amount of what I would call wage growth, I think the pressure will rise, or the market will start to price in the prospect of a rate hike, even if the Fed remains dovish. Wouldn't you? I mean, that's my take on it. Yes, can I add a couple of things there, Michael? First of all, when the unemployment rate was very high, the Fed, in all they're talking, particularly when Bernanke was chair, they were focused. Primary number one was on the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate has come down to a back down to 6%, which is a lower level than a lot of other countries out there, that they shifted a bit away from saying, well, they can't go around saying, well, there's slack in the system when the US has a better unemployment rate than the number of other G10 countries. So instead now they focused on and they said, well, wage growth hasn't kicked in yet. So that's why we're watching the hourly earnings in particular, because that's a measure that the Fed is now keying on for an idea of how much slack is actually out there in the labor market, because the unemployment rate is saying things are going pretty good here. The other thing we're watching for in the marketplace and where we could see a lot of action going forward is that we've had a huge amount of volatility in the currency markets and the divergence from the currencies and the stocks over the last two months. And this could be another catalyst for some action between the two. It's in the last two months we've had the US dollar staging massive rally, and it's gotten overbought against pretty much everything. And this rally has been driven on the idea that employment is great, inflation is starting to pick up, the Fed's going to have to get more hawkish going forward. They're going to have to start raising interest rates sooner than people think. On the other hand, until about three weeks ago, we had the stock market going. No way, liquidity party's going to keep going on forever. They're going to keep interest rates low for extended period. Extended period means late 2015 and forget it. Well, what's happened in the last couple of weeks, we've seen we're starting to get the correction in the equity markets. Reality is starting to catch up to stocks, and the currencies are, the people are figuring that, okay, well, the currency traders were probably right here, and we're starting to see stock markets come off. At the same time, we're actually seeing US dollar come off a little bit, and the reason for that is because the US dollar's had such a big rally, it's overbought, technically overbought against pretty much absolutely everything. And what did we see this week when we do get a little bit of backing and filling in the US dollar? We saw gold at least stabilizing, but we've seen huge snapback rallies in the Yen, in the Aussie, in the Kiwi. Those were the three currencies that have become the most depressed in the US dollar rally. So naturally, they had the biggest bounce back to over the last couple of days. I've also been asked a question about, you know, the effects of a strong dollar number. I think one thing that we have learned over the past couple of months is that the dollar's rallied quite strongly. So I think to get a significant dollar rally today, we're going to need a significantly sharp beat of, say, around about 250. And even then, unless we get a significant upward revision to August, really, will that be enough to push Dolly in above 110? So you could argue that a very strong number could actually be construed as negative. Personally, it's difficult to tell one way or the other. At the moment, what we've seen over the past few days is a strong move lower on equity markets, probably more so on European markets than US markets. And I think what you're doing, what you're getting now is a significant dislocation between the two. But what I would say is what we really need to focus on with respect to US markets, and I know this is something that you want to look at, Colin, is some of the key levels on what I would call the smaller indexes with respect to future direction. Because we heard earlier this week that the Russell 2000 briefly went into bear market territory. And as such, that could actually be negative for stocks. But as you can see from this chart here of the small caps 2000, what it didn't do is it didn't break below that significant support level on the downside from the November lows last year, even though it is now very oversold. Yes, and what I wanted to highly hear is we're seeing a bit of a fairly topping forming in the US markets. And what's most important when we're looking at the Russell and the NASDAQ is we're looking at market breadth and market momentum. Because you can have, with a small index of 30 stocks like the Dow, you can have a lot of bullish money basically concentrated in about half a dozen stocks can still move the Dow higher. But it's harder to move all 2000 stocks in the Russell and the breadth is important. And what we've seen over the last few weeks and in particular, if we go back a month ago when things like the Dow and the S&P were still up at new highs, we had a significant lower high early September. We weren't getting the breadth anymore in the market. The breadth has been shrinking and shrinking on the bullish side and breadth has been growing on the bearish side, which suggests to us that you were heading into a correction for US markets. So if we look at this chart here that Michael has been kind enough to put up, we can see that really we've got a pretty large trading channel forming here in the Russell, going back pretty much to the beginning of the year with a low around 1075 and a high around 1215. So what have we seen here? More recently, if we combine this with the stochastics, we've come down to the bottom of the channel. We've gotten oversold on the stochastics. We're starting to move back up, but so far this is a trading bounce. We're back in and around 1100. It's got to retake this 1105 previous low, the July-August low, to signal a start of a significant upswing. And if you get it, you can see it pop back up towards the two moving averages in and around 1150 initially. But what we also want to watch for is on this. If we think of it as a longer term, in March and July, you've got a pretty big double top has been put in. You've now got a lower high in September. So you are seeing a bit of distribution coming into the market as well. But for the short term, we're looking at this 1100, 1105 area. We bust through 1105. We can get a nice little pop here. If we falter and go back under 1100, you could retest that 1075 low again. It's also very interesting to know that the solid support on the Russell around about 1075, 1076, yesterday's rebound on the S&P actually happened to coincide with the trend line support that I've actually drawn on this particular chart here from the lows in June last year. Well, look at that, that's solid. I mean, that's pretty solid. And if you actually look at the long shadow on that candle, it does seem to suggest that there's quite a bit of demand down at those lower levels around about 1930. I mean, that's not to say that the next time we go down there we won't go through. But I certainly think on the top side, the 50-day moving average could well act as a significant resistance level, as it's acted as support over here in the past in April, May and also in September, earlier last month. Okay, there's a little bit of congestion through here. But generally, the 50-day moving average has worked quite well over the course of the last few months as either a significant support level. Now we're below it, you've got to think that it'll probably be a significant resistance level as well. So it's worth thinking about with respect to the support level and whether or not if we do get a number that's a little bit, what shall we call, makes the investors run for the hills, whether or not we actually break below it. Similarly, you wanted to look at the NASDAQ. So we'll quickly look at the NASDAQ because we've got two minutes to go. It's a similar sort of story with respect to the support level. Only we actually haven't got back down to those August lows yet, have we Colin? Technology still seems to be fairly well sought after. And again, we've got a very long shadow on that candle yesterday on the downside. Yes, that was quite a rebound. And now we're watching 4,000 is a key technical level for many reasons. First of all, of course, it's a big round number in the psychological number that markets are drawn to. But more importantly, it was the previous resistance and it was the previous breakout point. It had been tested a couple of times in support through September. It's broken down through it and now it's back up testing it. If it goes back above, then you can see it move back up into this 4,040-100 channel. Pretty easy. But if it fails at 4,000 again, then it would be quite a bit of trouble for the NASDAQ. You could see it retest yesterday's lows or even back into the 3,900 range. On top of that, if you actually bring it up 4,000 also is about where the 50-day moving average is. And there was also a trend line support there as well. So it's a really, really key number for NASDAQ. If it busts it in a serious way, then it's in big trouble here. But if it does manage to retake it, then it could be okay. But that would be a real harbinger of a correction. And one of the reasons we look at the NASDAQ is because it does have a lot of the high momentum, high growth stocks, and high price stocks in there. So it's indicative that if the NASDAQ is running, that people are still willing to put their money into higher, what we call higher beta, higher growth and momentum plays. When you go into a correction, the money starts to come out of that and rotate into defenses. So this is for the aggressive players. If that starts to break down, it suggests that people are going the other way and going defense. And we've got less than a minute to go now. So maybe you can jump in here, Colin, because I want to talk about this key day reversal on Dolly N. This key day reversal on Dolly N would appear to suggest that the dollar rally has run its course. So what we don't want to see is first and foremost, the dollar rally to break 109.20, which is yesterday's highs. And certainly we don't want it to break back above 110. So that suggests to me that the market could well be disappointed with the number that we get. So bear that in mind. Certainly look at the numbers. What I'm going to do is bring my Bloomberg up across now so that you can actually see it in front of you. So these are the numbers that we're looking for. That's the expectation. 215 is the market consensus. We're looking for a significant upward revision on the August number. We're also looking at the unemployment rate, 6.1%. But above all, it's this number here. And here we go, 248. That's a really good number. And the upward revision at 180. So pretty much got that spot on. So that's a fairly good number. In fact, that's a very good number, averaging over the last two months. So that's dollar positive, crushingly good number. We should get a strong dollar rally on the back of that. The one downside is the labor participation rate has dropped to 62.7, and the unemployment rate on the plus side has actually also fallen to 5.9%. So again, we're getting this push higher on dolly end. What we don't want to see on this dolly end is it break this previous high at 110. So is this number that we've got on dolly, is this number that we've got today good enough to send the dollar to new highs? And that's really the key question that we really need to answer. And my hunch would be, I don't know whether you agree with me with this, no. Because I think a lot of it was already priced in. Colin? I agree completely. I think a lot of this was already priced in. We figured that if we got a strong dollar number that we would get a balance here. But can it carry through 110? That would be a pretty big hurdle to cross at this point considering how much it's moved up already and considering how close to overbid it already is. Now, this would be a good way, I think. I think if we're looking at this as an e-jerk reaction, I would be looking to sell dollar strength now into this particular move. And certainly, I think on the basis of that number, maybe a small short position in dolly end and he sort of squeezed up to 110 with a tight stop loss. I certainly think that's the way I would look to play it. Euro dollar going to be slightly more tricky to play that. I still think that we could probably go to 124. So certainly when you're actually looking to play Euro dollar, I think what you've got to do is you've got to play the monetary policy, the trade, which essentially is that how much more likely is it that the ECB are going to use policy further? I think really if you're looking to get short of Euro dollar, you've got to look for a rally back to around 126.70. I wouldn't look to sell it here. I don't know whether that's your immediate need to get a reaction column, but I certainly wouldn't be looking to sell it at these sorts of levels. Yes, we've broken the lows that we saw yesterday, but overall, if we look at this long-term chart here, yes, we can go back all the way to 124, but the chances of a short squeeze, certainly on this particular chart, are very, very high indeed. Certainly, if you're playing the dollar story, I think the dolly end is the way to play it. Yeah, I think on this one, Michael, I mean, maybe you might see a little bear trap underneath a dollar 25 to take out some stop losses, but other than that, that's probably about it. It's gotten pretty oversold here. You certainly, I don't think, would want to be initiating new short positions here when you see how many days in a row that's down one, two, three, four, and a doji, then another three. So that's pretty solidly down, and now all the news is out. The ECB's done, the US employment numbers are out, and I mean, all we've got next week is Fed minutes, but that's backward-looking. And so, really, a lot of the news is out now, and how much follow-through are you going to get before you start to see some people trying to go and do some bargain hunting or short covering, for that matter, and take profits? Now, let's talk about- The pound one is interesting, too. Yeah, the pound one is actually interesting. I think the pound one is probably something that I would look to maybe jump in front of. Why? Because look at this confluence of moving averages. The 200-week moving average currently sits just about where we are now, around about 160, 159, 80, 160. How likely is it that we have enough momentum to push us below the 200-week moving average at current levels with current momentum, also given the fact that it's a toss-up between whether the Fed raises first or the Bank of England raises first. Is it worth a cheeky, long position on the cable with a stop-loss at 159.5? You know, I think 160, 159, 80 is a big, big level on cable, and I would be very, very surprised indeed if we saw it break today. Yeah, and on top of that, Michael, if we look, it's also sitting right on top of that 50% Fibonacci retracement, and you're oversold on the stochastics as well. So even though you are getting a bit of a hit here, you are in to a point where you could get significant support. So maybe you dip a little bit under again, but I don't think you'd see it go too far. Yeah, as I say, I mean, I think what will happen is we'll try and get, the market will try and take out any stops below 160 to try and squeeze out any long positions or any stops that are underneath 160, but, you know, and I look at that and I look at the respective monetary policies of the Bank of England and the Fed. We've got two dissenters on the Bank of England. We've got two dissenters on the FOMC. You know, you look at it and monetary policy is pretty much being run along parallel lines at the moment. Who's going to hike first? So the downside risk on cable is much less than say, for example, Euro dollar. So, bearing that in mind, what does that mean for Euro sterling? Well, overall Euro sterling, nothing changes. As far as I'm concerned, Euro sterling should continue to go lower over the course of the next few trading sessions. But what we do need to do is we need to stay below this 78, 75, 80 level. Why? Because that was the previous lows in July being asked about Euro sterling. So looking really here to sell any rallies into 78, 75, 80 for a move back to around 77, 54 and ultimately the lows that we saw back in 2000, all the way back here, all the way back in 2008 at 76, 90. So again, you're looking at a significant area of support around about 77, 54, which was obviously the takeoff level from the move to the highs that we saw in 2013 at 88, 15 and then on down to around about 76, 90. So, you know, that's my view on Euro sterling. I don't know whether anyone else has a slightly different view on that, but that certainly would make sense in terms of trading the levels. And that's primarily what I generally tend to do. I tend to wait for the market to come to me, trade off the levels, keep the stops tight and run the profits back to the range highs or the range lows. You also wanted to look at gold, didn't you, Colin? Because obviously those numbers are bad for gold. Yes, and we're seeing the gold price down at 1200. Gold is another one that it's extremely oversold here, but it is under quite a bit of pressure. You've got 1200 is, again, a big round number support. You've so, and you are getting a little bit oversold on the stochastics. Could it get more oversold and retest that double bottom near 1180 as a possibility? You still could see it there. You've been trending lower for quite some time. And in fact, as I see on your chair, my view, you've got this nice channel that it actually broke through the bottom and is accelerated to the downside. So, gold is under a lot of pressure here, but at some point, it could start to stabilize. Of course, every time I think gold's stabilizing, it goes down again. But realistically, though, we are getting into a potential support zone for gold, but it's probably too early to start looking at going along on it yet. But keep an eye on it, it starts to dip down into under 12 or getting close to 1180. Then you might see a bottom up, but right now you could still see it fall through today anyway. I certainly think the direction of travel for gold does appear to suggest that we're going to see a retest of those lows at 1180. But is it ready to collapse? You hear an awful lot of bearish sentiment about gold, but at some point, if it drops too low, miners will just stop digging it out of the ground and that in itself should underpin prices. So that's something that really you do need to bear in mind. I've heard all manner of estimates that gold's going to go back to $1,000 an ounce or even below $1,000 an ounce, but it costs about $1,050 to mine it out of the ground, so I think anything much below $1,000, I think it's not really sustainable in the long term. Now that's not to say that it can't go below there, but you could actually see it snap back, sometimes moves overextend on the downside and overextend on the upside. So it's certainly worth bearing that in mind when you actually look to trade something like gold, which obviously does have a tendency to chop quite aggressively. But the big, big level I think on gold, it's the 1180 level. If we break below there, I think you could see a bit of a spike lower because essentially if you're longer gold, that's where I put my stop. I put it at 1170, 1165. If that gets triggered, you could get a sharp move lower. So it's certainly worth bearing in mind on that score. What else? We want to quickly look at oil prices because certainly they're a good proxy for economic growth and certainly they're not really painting a pretty picture of the global economy. You look at Brent prices and they continue to sink week on week, day on day. And if we go all the way back, the lowest level since we saw in 2012, look at the steepness of that downtrend. Now, does that mean that we can't go any lower? No, it doesn't. But what it does suggest is that we could well slip all the way back to $88, $89, which then raises the question as to whether or not OPEC will cut production to underpin prices. And that's something that really, I think you guys do need to be aware of when you're looking at trying to sell oil, be aware of the fact that the ultimate eighth in the whole for the OPEC producing countries is they could cut production to try and underpin prices because I don't think any of the OPEC countries really want or need oil prices significantly below $95 a barrel for any length of time given their spending commitments. Yes, absolutely. And look at that on the stochastics. The higher lows, you are getting a positive divergence but you could still see it go lower in the short term. So really what we're really looking for here is a break of this downtrend line to suggest that this negative sentiment on Brent is starting to come to an end. At the moment, we've got a very strong positive reaction off the lows, but today's candle appears to suggest that that's just temporary. If we take out this low here from yesterday, then we could well see further losses towards those lows that we saw in 2012. And again, with WTI, it's a similar sort of story. Geopolitical shocks aside, we do appear to have broken this long-term uptrend from the 2010 lows here as well as the support level through here. We need to close below here. This is what concerns me a little bit. Yesterday, we spiked through it. A trifecta of support levels, we need to close below it. Look at the convergence of these lines here, ladies and gentlemen. We need to close below this line because this is a weekly chart this week to suggest that we could go further down on WTI. So at the moment on WTI, we're on a bit of a tipping point. It really depends on where we close tonight in New York as to whether or not we go lower towards the lows that we saw in 2013, which is around about $85. I still think there's potential for us to go to $85. Certainly, the demand aspect does not appear to be there. You can talk an awful lot about the recovery in the U.S. economy. It certainly does appear to be going along at a fairly decent pace, but it's certainly not blowing the doors off. I was in the U.S. just over a week ago, and sentiment is fairly buoyant, but it certainly doesn't seem to suggest that the economy is racing away. The retailers are still discounting very, very heavily. Every store that I went into, Target, Walmart, Gap, Kmart was discounting heavily. All the retailing in the department stores were discounting heavily as well. Nordstrom, Fax, Macy's, Sears all had 20 or 30% off. That doesn't speak to me of a retail sector that's in rude health. It suggests to me that margins still remain fairly squeezed and that retailers are really trying to get people through the door. Yes, just before we wrap up, Michael, could you bring up DollarCAD, please? I can indeed. I can certainly do that for you, Colin. DollarCAD. Just wanted to finish up with DollarCAD. In addition to the non-farm payrolls today, we also had U.S. and Canada trade data out. U.S. trade balance was a $40.1 billion deficit. That was a little better than expected $40.8 billion. Canada was a disappointment and we had a $0.6 billion deficit. The street had been looking for a $1.6 billion surplus. I'm not surprised myself because with the big drop we've seen in oil prices, but the street's been taking that as a negative, so we've got the U.S. dollar popping up again here. It's now up into this 112, 112.50 area, really critical area technically because if it filters here, you would put in a double top. If you break out, then you've broken it. It's a channel here, about 5 cent channel, 107.30 to 112.30. You break that, that measures up to 117.30. And you've got a pretty solid uptrend here, so you're at a key technical point for $4 CAD. Thank you, Michael, for this more extended chart. Plus, you're testing a big Fibonacci as well, and look at the 61%, 62% is up 116.65. So that's not that far off from what you would be measuring up to off of the channel, so you've got quite a bit of upside potentially here. If either U.S. dollar strengthens or Canadian data continues to come in, soft Canada jobs are next Friday. And but also the note on the stochastics, you do have a lower high, so you are getting a bit of a negative divergence here. Well, this one looks like it could go either way, but it could have a significant move in either direction in the coming weeks. I certainly think the momentum is with the dollar relative to the Canada, but the key question I think is whether it's sustainable. You know, and this is a key level, this level. We can see it's 50% of, you know, 50% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 down move. So, you know, I would imagine there's quite a few stops above 112.35 at around about 112.50, 112.60 and 112.70. So certainly I think if 112.60 goes bid, then I think you could well see dollar Canada spike higher. I've just been asked a question about the main fundamental reason for all weakness. There's two factors, obviously the strong dollar's one of them, but the other factor really is about the relationship between supply and demand. There's plenty of supply and there's low demand. If you look at obviously setting US fundamentals to one side, yes, we do have winter coming up, but if you actually look at Europe, if you look at China, if you look at the Japanese data that we've seen so far this week, it all points to a very weak global economic outlook. And in that context, if supply is plentiful and demand is not there, then essentially prices get cut and that's essentially what we're seeing at the moment. There's an element that, you know, the supply is outstripping demand and unless we get a geopolitical shock that could somehow disrupt supply lines, particularly in the Brent space, then the direction of travel remains for a lower oil price. So the person who asked that question, I hope that answers it. If it doesn't, please feel free to ask a follow-up. Otherwise, we'll quickly and briefly move on to the Aussie dollar because I know that a lot of our clients like to look at that. And once again, we've got a similar type of reversal pattern here on the Aussie. Yes, we've seen a hammer here on Wednesday. That's Thursday's up move. We've seen a strong down move today, but thus far, and actually I would suggest that as long as we stay above that support level there, then we could, as long as we've managed to finish in New York above that support level there, then I think there's a good chance we may get an Aussie bounce next week. Do you have a different view on that? No, I agree with you and that's something we've got, that we'll be watching for with the number, whether it's the yen, whether it's the Aussie, whether it's the CAD and others. We're talking about how we've seen some pretty significant levels get hit recently. We're backtesting them again, but we haven't blasted through yet, which is really important because you've gone a day where everything says US dollar should be going a lot higher. If the US dollar doesn't start going a lot higher against everything, then that suggests it's exhausted. A lot of it's been priced in already and therefore, in the absence of more data over the next week, because it goes pretty quiet for the states, except for the FOMC minutes, that maybe next week, once this burst of enthusiasm goes through, you could actually see a bit of a reverse on the correction in trading next week. Well, that's the thing you see, because next week you've got the Aussie employment report, and you get a good number, yeah, exactly in the RBA, and if you get a positive read through there, then you could actually get a rebound at the Aussie dollar. Also, is this also worth bearing in mind on the Aussie that if you do drop below the lows that we saw earlier this week, we have a significant support level coming in lower down. If I just blow that out, there we go. Going from the lows in 2008 at 60, 50, well, that seems such a long time ago now, 60, 60, 60, 55 to the highs at 110, 80, look at the 50% retracement level, look at where it is right there. It's around about 85, 65, 70. So that's still quite a nice move if we do break below where we are now, but it's certainly worth bearing in mind in the context of this overall move here that do we have the momentum to take out the previous lows here? I guess we'll have to wait and see, but certainly on the basis of the oscillator, it does once again to be very oversold. Brings me on to the Kiwi. This is a nice little chart that we've got here. It does look a little bit overbought, but let's actually have a look at this trend line here, which I'm just going to pull out. This is a four-hourly chart, and we're testing this support line here. Obviously, there's the previous lows. We now blow that out to a daily chart. Quickly do that, there we go. So we can see from this chart here that we've had a strong move off the lows here. Okay, today's payrolls number is obviously negative for Kiwi, it's very positive for the US dollar, but once again, what we want to see is either a break of this trend line here and a break of these lows here to sustain the negative momentum for the Kiwi, the positive momentum for the dollar that we've seen over the past few days and weeks since the August highs around about 84.12. Colin, I know you wanted to talk about this. Yes, the Kiwi dollar has been under a lot of fire in recent months. It turns out that a lot of these declines through August and September were actually selling from the RBNZ. They came out recently and said they had sold about 500 million of Kiwi dollars or 300 million. It was a sizable amount through August. So they've been talking the dollar down. They've been intervening in forex markets, but can you pull this out, Chardo, to about two years, Michael? Sure, I can do that. Actually, I'll make it weekly. That way we've got a little bit more definition. That's all we need. We're getting close here down around there. That's perfect. The last time the RBNZ intervened was in early 2013 where they knocked it down from about 87 cents down here to about 77. We're back down again to the levels where the RBNZ stopped interfering in the markets. So the legal scenario was probably, they may be done with intervening for the time being. Kiwi dollar is getting pretty oversold on the stochastic. So on longer term, it looks like we're into a situation where we could see it to start to base. We'd look at the later part of where it was summer 2013, bouncing around between about 77 and about 81. And that's the kind of training range we could see the Kiwi dollar get back into again. It looks as though the RBNZ seemed to be happy with that last year. And so they may be more willing to let it consolidate in that range in the coming weeks going forward. They continue trying to talk it down. Yeah, there is actually one question that I would like to raise, and I don't know whether you have a view on this. It's the midterms, the U.S. midterms. Do you think that they will have any effect on any Fed policy or any exchange rate or what have you? Or do you think that's largely noise? I think there's a lot of noise in there, especially with this time around, because the Fed is starting to move more hawkishly, that it looks like the Republicans will probably pick up some seats in Congress in the House. They may or may not regain control of the Senate, but it's certainly at a minimum, they're going to be in a stronger position in the Senate. Where you're going to see it is in terms of when new Fed members start to come in, already Philadelphia Fed President Plotter's leaving on March the 1st. They're still like Jeremy Stein and I think another space that haven't been filled. It took them a while to get through the confirmation process for the last two, Dr. Fisher and Dr. Brainard. That dragged on for quite a while. I think what you'll see is that going forward, that the Republicans will probably put up a stronger fight to any more dovish members getting added to the Fed. They'll probably be looking for hawk, so there's where you may see the impact over the longer term, but shorter term, with the Fed already shifting to a more hawkish stance, we would certainly quiet down the Republicans a little bit in terms of their opposition to some things. Where you may see them start to chatter that they may try and put more pressure on the Fed to try and get their balance sheet back down faster than they've been talking about. I think it's worth pointing out, though, that Mr. Plotter won't have a vote on the FOMC from January because they basically vote on a rotating basis, so even though he retires in March, he actually comes off the voting panel in January. I expect he timed it that way. Yeah, I think he timed it that way. As does Mr. Fisher, the Dallas Fed member. So the voting members, it could actually be less hawkish come the end of the year, assuming that there is not a correlative pickup in the economic data. And it's always worth bearing that in mind, irrespective of how good or bad the data is. Sometimes it's not just about the data, it's also about the voting members on the FOMC. I've also been asked about dollar-ruble. I think for me, the big level on that is the 40-ruble mark, and we're just shy of that at the moment. Certainly there's no mistaking the direction of travel there. Certainly looking to push higher. What I would suggest here is that if we just use basic support and resistance, if we get any dips back to around about 38, 39, then it's pretty much long dollars, short rubles, until that level gives way. One other thing I would say, ladies and gents, we've now just added the dollar index to our range of products, and we can see from that that's a pretty conclusive chart there. One way, move higher on the dollar index. But looking at the dollar index and looking at dollar yen, I still can't bring myself to be longer dollar yen at these levels. I think that the risk probably is more to the downside than the upside. I know that's slightly contrarian, but that's just my gut feeling. Also have the Chinese remnimbi, and given the problems in Hong Kong, that's probably worth having a look at, and we can see that there that there's a little bit of a top through here, around about 618 trading sideways, finding a few bids around about 613. One other thing, let's have a look at the Nikkei, because the Nikkei's been actually quite interesting over the past few days and weeks. Look at that top that we've got just above 16,384, and that's another reason why I'm uncomfortable being long dollar yen. Nikkei looks toppy. The Nikkei looks toppy, then the suggestion is, basically the Nikkei likes a weak yen, and at the moment, the yen looks weak, but there's a big, big barrier at 110, and until such times it breaks through 110, you've got to think the Nikkei looks toppy. Good trend line before that coming in. This is the last double top. Yeah, it's a big double top there. So that's a huge level. If we measure between 13,880 and 16,380, if that level breaks, we could get a very rapid 3,000 point move towards 19,000. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that one, ladies and gents. Okay, well, unless anyone has any other questions that they want to address to me and Colin, that's pretty much it for this month's non-farm payrolls webinar. Colin and I do do another webinar. This one, I believe, is on the 16th of October. I think it's the 16th, isn't it Colin? And it's a half, it's Thursday the 16th. It's a half hour webinar, and basically we just talk about the charts. We talk about trading setups. We talk about a whole raft of different subjects. Take questions from you all. More than please feel free to sign up for that. It's between 3 and 3.30 on Thursday the 16th of October. You can sign up from our website, cmcmarkets.co.uk, in the education section. We have recorded this webinar, and we'll be posting it on YouTube sometime over the weekend. So if you want to listen to any of it back, please feel free to do so. Otherwise, until the same time next month, Colin and I would like to thank you for listening to us chatter on for the last half hour, 45 minutes. Thank you all very much for joining us today and happy trading. It looks like it'll be an active one. Cheers, guys. Thanks a lot.