 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. The results of the U.S. mid-term elections are in and the Congress is divided. While the Republicans have retained control over the Senate, the Democrats have recaptured the House. So while these results are not too unexpected, but if they really represent a blue wave or this rise in anti-Trump sentiment is still under debate. So we have with us today Prashant to discuss these results further. So Prashant, can you tell us about this blue wave? Was there really one? And is there a market rise in anti-Trump sentiment? So let's first look at the context behind these elections. These elections were the most expensive midterms in U.S. history. $5.2 billion was spent. And this also happens at a time when there has been a marked increase in polarization. For instance, Trump's rhetoric, the Republican Party policies all have definitely pushed towards a greater polarization in U.S. society. In fact, if you notice, a major campaign plank of Trump has claimed that the migrant caravan of poor refugees coming from Central America constitutes an invasion. And then there are other measures, for instance, like the repeated attempts by the Republicans to repeal health care for all and many examples like that. And his election also saw a massive increase in voter turnout. There were nearly 113 million voters as opposed to 83 million last time. And also the rise in the number of women and the number of minorities. Exactly. Exactly. A lot of women candidates, minority candidates too. So this is the larger context in which these elections happened. So if you look at the results, you could say that there has been, it's more or less as you said, like was predicted. So the Democrats have taken control of the House, the Republicans have eaten the Senate. So it's more of a deadlock situation is going to continue, which is already there to a large extent. So I would hesitate to call it a blue wave per se, because it has not been an overwhelming sweep. But nonetheless, Democrats have one certain key victories and can take some steps forward in advancing the agenda. So for instance, if you look at the House or representatives, so there have been certain swings in certain key states. For instance, we have, say, a state like Texas or a state like Georgia, for instance, where there have been some more, say, districts, more districts have become competitive. And a lot of these races often don't get too much attention in the national media. But the overall trend seemed to indicate that suburban voters have shifted more to the Democrats, whereas the conservative rural base of the Republicans remains more or less intact. So that's been the key feature of the voting pattern this far. And we must also remember that there's a historical trend of the Congress switching during the term of a president. So the last major switch was in 2010 when Obama was the president. So one would not read too much into these shifts in terms of there being a massive rise in anti-Trump sentiment. But at the same time, there is definitely going to be a halt on some of his agenda, yes. So now we know that Democrats are now that they are in the House. What can we expect? There's been all these, all this talk about that if Democrats come back, then they will maybe initiate impeachment proceedings or launch investigations into Trump's tax returns. So can we expect such moves to now happen? Well, I think the Democrats have already made it clear that they're not looking at impeachment per se. But at the same time, there is definitely going to be a lot of focus on, for instance, his tax returns. And definitely the whole Russia issue is going to be looked into in a much more detailed angle. So you must remember that one of the key aspects of this change or the shift in, say, the House of Representatives is that the Democrats gain control of a lot of key committees. They get to chair these committees. And so there's a likelihood that there will be requests made for testimonies and subpoenas in all in terms of issues like these, for instance, either tax returns or Russia or what they're calling Russia gate. So there's going to be a lot of more action on that. And similarly, Republican attempts to, for instance, repeal, say, health care reform is going to be much, much more tougher because of the majority that the Democrats have. So in some senses, one would say that there's going to probably be a halt to Trump's legislative agenda, so to speak. But Trump doesn't really seem to care because he seems to think that he has as much chances with the Democrats in negotiating certain deals as with the Republicans. So and it also really depends on what direction the Democrats want to go in terms of the future too. And these voting results also point to some interesting directions about that. So it's looking forward to, say, 2020. How do the Democrats want to position themselves? Do they want to continue to be centrists? Or do they want to go in some other directions? So that's a key point. And what do you think would this these results mean for Donald Trump coming back in 2020? That's a very interesting question because Trump, whether if he's going to contest in 2020, will, as I said, need to capture some of those key Midwestern states, definitely, and also some of his strong support bases. So really, a lot of the challenge boils down to states like Florida, it boils down to the Midwestern states, and whether he'll be able to rename them. And now some of these elections show that it's what do you call it's a bit more dicey. It's not going to be as easy as the last time. Nonetheless, I think his immediate agenda would be to keep polarizing voters as much as possible, because that has had certain successes. For instance, if you look at Florida, where say Andrew Gillum was supposed to be leading, nonetheless, a candidate very closely endorsed by Trump finally did win. And they've been quite another quite a few races where his candidates actually have somehow managed to win both in the Congressional and Senate races. And if I'm not mistaken, quite a few at least two senators who had opposed the Brett Kavanaugh nomination also lost. And the Republicans really focused on those two candidates in the last couple of weeks of the race. So as far as the Trump and Republicans are concerned, there's going to be a huge attempt at continuing this polarization. Another key aspect is evangelical voters. Now it's been noted that the number of evangelical voters have come down. At the same time, their voting percentages are quite high, the turnouts are quite high. So how to mobilize these voters, how to polarize society as much as possible is definitely going to be on Trump's agenda as far as he's concerned. And he's very unabashed about it. He doesn't really care or have any scruples on that. So one key challenge for both the Democrats and especially on the left, those on the left of the Democrats, is how to actually combat that and take this battle to areas which are not traditionally democratic voters. And how to combat that message in a successful way is going to be a huge challenge for them. Yeah, so within the Democrats, there have been very mixed, like mixed ideological candidates where one we have, of course, the more conservative Democrats who have one and then we have the more socialist candidates as well who have once some seats and more socialist agendas coming in the fall, like in Florida, we see the amendment for being passed, which gives rights to voting rights to ex-felons. So when we have this mixed bag of Democrats coming in the House, the question does, one candidate is the question, what will then happen to these two domestic policy agendas where you brought up migrants and abolishing ICE and all these other things? So it's interesting you brought up amendment four because another thing that we often forget is that this is not only about the Congress and the House of Representatives and the Senate and the Governorships, but also about a lot of propositions and amendments at the local level. So there have been quite a few interesting ones. You mentioned amendment four in Florida, which gives felons, nearly one million felons a right to vote, and that's likely to be a huge factor. And also it's very naturally, it's part of natural justice, the idea that you remove voting rights for felons is really crazy. Similarly, at least three states have voted to increase, to expand Medicare. And for that matter, two states have voted to increase minimum wages also. So there's been a lot of progressive, say, legislations at the local level at the state level, which have been implemented. And those are also pretty interesting and really, and also provide a boost for progressive activists. Now, if you look at the larger picture, I would, for instance, say that, say, the Governorships, some of the Governorship elections are interesting. Because if you look at the Midwest, where Trump actually won quite a few key states, which were expected to go for Hillary Clinton. So you have states like Ohio, you have states like Michigan, Kansas. So in many of these states, actually the Democrats won back the Governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas, definitely. And Wisconsin is a very key victory because Scott Walker, the governor, was the leading figure in actually anti-union tactics. And he had been funded by key Republican donors as part of an experiment to try to destroy, say, unions. So the defeat of somebody like that in Wisconsin is actually a major step, definitely. And this also proves that some of these states are going to be more, are going to be real toss-ups, as they say in the 2020 election. So there's a lot of questions for the left as far as they're concerned. Now, even if you look at a state like Florida, which has for years been with the Republicans, not just the governorship, but also both houses of the state Congress. And this time, actually, Democratic candidate came very close to beating the Republican candidate. Again, if you look at a state like Texas, for instance, where we have Ted Cruz, who has given the real fight of his life and he's one of the most extreme right candidates in the Republican Party. So this actually shows a lot of interesting trends that some of the what were called the Red Heartland or the red states, the hardcore red states, might actually be a bit shaky sometimes. And there are many reasons for this. One would be, for instance, the fact that the population is becoming far, far more diverse. There are more people from Hispanic backgrounds, more people from other backgrounds coming in. There's a lot of internal migration also. So all this is actually possibly leading to more of a churn, which is what people noted is the suburban voters going largely Democratic, for instance, as an indicator of that. So this actually I would think presents a lot of challenges to the left, as you pointed out. Now one of the key challenges is, do they try to remain centrist or do they move further to the left? Now Bernie Sanders has been a key advocate of moving to the left, of course. And we have somebody like say Alexia and Rao Casio Cortez, who won as a New York congresswoman and one of the youngest at 29. And his election has also seen the, this election is also in the victories of two Muslim women and openly gay governor for the first time. So the whole diversity of Congress is actually increasingly represents what the country looks like. It's no longer possible to make it only a collection of white men. Or for that matter you have a fact that I think 112 women have entered Congress if I'm not mistaken. So the left really has a challenge in terms of say how to say look at this diversity one and what do you call it? Bring up new candidates, fresh faces who will actually represent that and who will actually represent a lot of people's demands. But the second challenge I would think is also the fact that it should also stay away from certain traditional notions that the white people entirely support Trump and say leave these sections aside. Because I think there's a very keen importance to take the battle to some of these red states. And some of these results say Florida, say for instance Texas, they all show that this is actually possible. That if the left is the left wing of the Democratic Party or left wing and the left of the American say political establishment itself is able to mobilize, is able to take things far more to these battlefields. It is possible that these traditional notions of red state and blue state might actually break down a bit. And that is a real possibility. And I think every election kind of pushes that boundary a bit further. So it's no longer I think safe to really go by the old red state, blue state binary. And there's a possibility of breaking it down as far as the left is concerned. And finally last question is what do these results mean for the foreign policy of United States? So foreign policy wise the president still has a huge amount of leeway. So it's really a question of it's really a huge question how much Congress is actually going to be able to stop what Trump wants to do and what Trump wants to do is so unpredictable at times that nobody really has an idea. But one key thing for instance would be the fact that the Iran deal Trump would find it a bit difficult to continue his what he wants to do because the Democrats are very invested in the Iran deal. And so but nonetheless Trump will still find ways I'm sure to say carry on those sanctions even while giving waivers to key countries. And for instance it also makes it important that the whole his relationship with China how he negotiates it becomes a key point. So what this happens basically is that I think the House of Representatives becomes a key battleground for the Democrats to take their fight continuously against Trump. And Trump will have to make sure that the economy for instance in the next two years does not nose dive or say that there doesn't happen any major say foreign international issues which regularly hit his credibility because the Democrats will be waiting to actually take these battles to him in the Congress. But in terms of pure implementation of policies I still think he'll have quite a bit of a free hand on that. So thank you Prashant for joining us today. Thank you for watching NewsClick.