 The pitching options on tonight's slate for daily fantasy baseball aren't the guys we typically turn to within our fan dual lineups There are a lot of Second-tier guys, maybe they're in the value play discussion at times but in general not like the mainstays the stalwarts within our lineups and that can be tough but I think the thing the fun thing about tonight is that there are a lot of unique factors that allow some of those second-tier guys to become Better than what they typically are and that to me provides some hope for tonight that we can Lean on these guys who are not our typical guys. We put our lineups and feel pretty good about them still We're going to break down what those factors are who benefits from them and how it impacts tonight's slate in mlb Dfs welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is jim sauna. So I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down tonight's eight game main Slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today. There are four weather notes across the day game So a bit of a messy slate the first one is in new york for the Yankees and the Orioles Slate chance of rain there. They should be okay to play But I would check back on that later to see what the timeline of that rain is at Wrigley field winds are blowing in from center at 16 miles per hour It's also just 58 degrees. So if you were crafting the most perfect pitching conditions you could possibly concoct for tonight They're going to take place at Wrigley field. So upgrade pitchers big time For the cubs and the Mets those two pitchers are marcus stroman and koday senga There is a chance of thunderstorms in kansas city for the royals and the tigers I check back on the timing of those but they should be good to go there and finally There's a slight chance of rain in denver for the rockies and marlins Again, they should be okay to play but check back on that later So no real risky games in terms of postponements. I don't think but I would check back on them later And the big weather takeaway is Wind in and low temperatures in Wrigley field, which is fantastic for pitching We'll talk about the implications of that and more in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts Our pga dfs breakdown of the charles Schwab challenge is now up breaking down our top golfers in each salary tier over at Fandall dot com via myself and brandon gedula get that by searching for the number fire of daily fantasy podcast feed wherever You get your podcast anything like what you hear leave us a five star rating as well Make a fast break to fandall during the nba playoffs because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sports book fandall Official sports betting partner of the nba must be 21 plus of president slag states first online real money wager only $10 deposit acquired Refund issued is not on the job bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricts and applies see terms at fandall dot com slash sports book fandall is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement With kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg dot or excess chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it in wyoming and kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in kansas ks gambling help dot com louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in massachusetts gambling helpline m a dot or or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in maryland md gambling help at orc and new york 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open y And in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net pitching preview for this wednesday main slate brice miller comes in with the highest salary on fandall at 10 9 that may sound odd But he's facing the age so that's why he's up there james paxton comes in at 10 4 followed by brice elder against the dodgers at 10 1 marcus stroman and coday senga both in that win stroman 99 senga 96 tidal wells is 94 with tony gonslan at 9 thousand sandale contract course field and nester quartets are the other guys at $8000 or higher for today now i mentioned the weather rigby field and That's fantastic for pitching. That's great for stroman, but it's also great for senga And if i run my strikeout projections without factoring in the wind coday senga has the highest projected strikeout number on this slate So a lot of strikeouts perfect weather for pitching coday senga will be our top pitcher for today at $9600 And we did see senga get pushed back He was supposed to start last night and you can get some concern from guys being pushed back But the med said they did that to keep senga on extra rest he's had extra rest for every start so far this year and that tells me that it's not an injury and I feel good about him as a result of that He is facing the cubs benefiting from that wind at rigley field plus the cool temperatures senga Is still walking too many guys with a 14 walk rate thus far and as we saw last night at mckinsey gore walks will haunt The other parts of the profile are good for senga though He has a 29 strikeout right that is uh buoyed by 12 strikeout outing last time out But he's had seven plus strikeouts and five of his eight starts and he had six in one of the non seven strikeout starts So it's not just one star juicing up the numbers for senga Well, he's had plus matches before and he's taken advantage of those So you could downgrade the numbers a bit there, but the 12th strikeout game came against the rates He's facing the cubs here. They've gotten off to a good start against righties got some guys who have had phenomenal You know seedings but also the past couple weeks 107 w RC plus to the cubs 23 strikeout right not actively seeking this team out for any reason, but It's a guy who gets strikeouts pitching in good weather for pitching on a slate. That's lacking in top end starters I've got senga projected for 6.9 strikeouts here. That's more than enough for me be very high in him here so he gets a boost up because of the wind, but i'd probably be on senga regardless just because It's a low strikeout slate and he is one of the exceptions who can rack them up The number two option is going to benefit from a matchup and I typically try Really hard not to oversell matchup in DFS because you need the pitcher to get strikeouts too And they're pretty pretty big factor in that equation But brice miller I think is is benefiting enough from his matchup to be the number two option behind senga for tonight And he's had a great start to his big league career But i'm still pretty skeptical in large part because the peripherals are more just okay I'm just not sure if the regression will come tonight based on the matchup that he has with this ace team The matchup As mentioned as the main driver here the ace have a 90 w RC plus against righties with a 25 strikeout rate The strikeout rate is the part of miller that I have the hardest time believing He doesn't a 25 strikeout rate across his first four starts, but his swinging strike rate is 9.1% much lower and He did get strikeouts in double a last year But that's double a and it's a big jump up to the majors And a lot of the strikeout rates for miller comes from just one start So low swinging strike rates The strikeout rate overall juiced up by one start The problem with disqualifying it for that reason is that that one start came against the a's and it came back on May 2nd Which is long enough ago where I don't care too much about familiarity here the mariners Did let miller stretch himself out last time out he went 102 pitches So I'd expect to be closer to 90 or so going forward But it is helpful to know if he has an inefficient inning or two He can still potentially get us that quality start bonus I Will like to be off this train soon for miller because I think that regression will come but not sure to be tonight So at least for right now, I do think miller works here at $10,900 We'll talk about some other pitchers You could turn to in things to watch because if you can't tell a little skeptical of miller, but going here due to the Matchup I think there are other options to pivot to if you also are skeptical of him We'll go through those later on but first let's talk about our value play And among the value plays the only one I think is worth what using is sandy alcantra and for senga the main driver was weather For miller the main driver's matchup for alcantra the main driver is pitch cap And that's going to matter a lot for us in getting to alcantra for tonight because he's at course field Which is tough and he still is not back to his old self And I have not seen reasons to think he will be back there Super super soon But he's still the best value option here because he goes to a deep in games talk about that more in a second But the matchup here with the rockies does help 89 a wrc plus against righties low walk rate So it's a good matchup for him and alcantra Even without having his best stuff Is still clearly like intelligent. You don't get to what he did last year without being intelligent And that part of alcantra is still there. He's working around not having his best stuff He has nine strikeouts and three separate games so far this year And it's a combination of that intelligence with the length he's given He's gone 100 plus pitches and four consecutive starts including 113 in one of them Which gives him plenty of leech even when things aren't going perfect for him I haven't seen a lot to suggest he's going to suddenly get out of this rough stretch But he did change his pitch mix last time out He used more foresight fastballs and fewer sinkers and that game didn't go well for him But that foreseamer isn't much higher whiff pitch for him than the sinker is so It could happen. It could get better here pretty soon. It's not the most inspiring play. I don't think but There are plenty of downsides here, but I'm still fine with it So I think alcantra does work here as the top value 89 Maybe the fact that my light bulb is currently like about to expire and sounds like I'm in a torture chamber Maybe that means it's a bad one for alcantra, but um, I still think I want to go there If you're watching youtube, you can see my life flickering. It's because I'm in a torture chamber. Apparently Bad only maybe for sandy alcantra, but outside of that. I do think he is a quality play for today Let's dig in now to the stacks and the stacks are a bit easier for today than the pitching options are and Unfortunately based on what happened last night We're going back to the same place as we were for a third consecutive night the Mariners and marlins have both been in play each of the first two slays so far this week and I think they are again for tonight I think the Mariners a preferred team here So we'll start with them and then get to the marlins and the Mariners were good on Monday Just not as good last night The main draw for the marlins is that they're or the Mariners that they're facing the a's So again, we get to face the a's bullpen, which is always a plus And I think they should do well before they get to that bullpen also They're facing ken walde chuck who is off to a rough start this year He has 6.85. He's expected the array is 6.26 and I think he's been trying to get more strikeouts recently, which is a good thing He's been throwing more sliders to get there and his strikeout rate is up a bit But it's still just 19 percent this time and his fly ball rate is 45 percent with a 40 percent hard hit rate So even with the strikeouts up We would still stack against that for sure and we'd stack against even if the bullpen behind him were better than what it currently is the mariners are Gonna have to be a focal point for us just for one more night given that they get to face walde chuck Who's struggling get to face this a's bullpen which is struggling I think it all adds up to make the a's the mariners. I should say a very good stack for today The issue we ran into monday at least I did when I was stacking is that A lot of the non obvious guys blew up. Yeah, jared jared kelinick and lefty on lefty matchup Hosecavillero, uh, he had a home run as well and We get walde chuck tonight another lefty facing them So I don't think it was like totally out of left field that kelinick and caballero were the guys who Did well there because kelinick has crushed lefties this year even though he's a lefty small sample, but it's you know Good regardless caballero willing to run on lefties and Seems to have more power against them too So i'm not going to abandon like the traditional studs. I think that uh, pio rodriguez is like the top plan the slate for tonight Um, it is a bit tougher to get to toscar hernandez and ajiapalc now that they're lower in the order but I think you can't have some level of faith in kelinick and caballero here as the guys who burned us or at least me I should say me. Maybe they didn't burn you but the the guys I should have included in my stack a monday night and Didn't do as well as I could have as a result of that But kelinick especially lefty on lefty. I don't think that bothers him too much So julio rodriguez the top play but kelinick definitely in that discussion as well As for the marlins still a course field that is the only reason we are here outside of the matchup I would not stack this marlins team On the moon, maybe I might consider it but outside of that That's the only place I could potentially go to this offense because they're pretty rough, but they're facing carl coughman and even With a good matchup for coughman. I still think we should stack against him here Coughman made his debut last week, which was in arlington against the rangers So not a course field, but still got knocked around. He led up five runs four which were earned in four and a third innings He led up a 67 hard hit rates and two barrel balls that was I think to be expected based on his minor league numbers down there uh coughman had a 15 strikeout rates with a 43 hard hit rate allowed and Sure, the matchup is easier for him this week because the marlins are awful against righties But it's now course field and coughman was struggling against triple a hitters now the marlins are bad I would say I don't think they're as bad as triple a batters I don't think they are but you know you could put your joke in there if you wanted to But I will go back to them here and it might be one of the final times this year I had to do so hopefully this is the last time because I'm sick of it But I do think that they are a necessity for tonight regardless I would say the one downside of stacking against the rockies is that They've done a great job controlling the running game this year. They've led up just 22 stolen bases with 18 Runners caught stealing that is a tremendous ratio So if you're looking at this marlins lineup I would focus primarily on power when deciding which guys you want to use so Downgrade john birdie against the writing a downgrade garret hampton despite it being a revenge game downgrade gene sigura Because their main appeal is their speed and that's not going to be as big of a factor against this rocky's defense And so I think that I would downgrade those guys brian dale accruz still fine. Yeah, he does steal but he also has power so He's fine. But the other guys do get a downgrade here because of how good The rockies have been controlling the running game As for the third stack, I'm going to go a bit contrarian here. I like the orials a lot They're facing nesta cortez So there is risk here because cortez is a good pitcher But I think they are worth it cortez just letting up a lot of runs right now He is still getting strikeouts, which is why this is risky But he's got some really big bad at ball issues We've seen cortez throwing more four seamers as past six starts and in that time He has let up a 43 hard hit rate with a 58 fly ball rate He let up three home runs in a single game in that stretch Overall, his z r a is 6.68 He did get a lot better last time out and he let up just three hard hit balls on 16 balls of play against the blue jays Which may mean he has gotten things turned around But it's also just a one start sample He let up 10 hard hit balls to start before that and the orials I think right now are better than the blue jays against lefties They have a 123 w rc plus, which is the best number on the slate. They have a 190 iso It is a tremendous part for home runs So it could go poorly because I respect cortez as a pitcher, but All stacks can go poorly. That's kind of the nature of the beast then I'll be dfs and this one comes with upside So I'll be on the orials for tournaments. I think they make a lot of sense and they are a team To me that is worth taking the risk on for tonight Now one guy might not be as high on in my oral stacks is Jorge Mateo. I typically loved him, but he's been in a slump He has no extra base hit since may 6th and only won So far this month. So Then a rough stretch. He also has just forced stolen bases this month. His hard hit rain may is 28 We also saw Mateo miss a game last week due to leg sourness and I think that may be playing a role here potentially in why he's been struggling I'm probably going to take a break from including Mateo in stacks I will keep a close eye on him because he is super super fun with two sources of upside But I want to see some signs of life with the stick before I buy back in There are plenty of other guys in the stack who uh look really good and great at really well. So I'll probably focus primarily on them and then jump back on the Mateo train once he Truly gives me a reason to do so things to watch for tonight as mentioned. I'm not super super sold on Bryce Miller I think he's okay. I think he's the number two option, but one gets more pivots. I think the primary one is james paxton They let him go super deep in last week's game despite his injury concerns The velocity for paxton is the best he's been in a very long time He's not getting whiffs, but he is getting strikeouts. He's facing the angels for today. Um It's not a great matchup, but his salary is 10-4. He's gonna be low rostered. I would assume and I think he makes a lot of sense. I also am okay with marcus frohman in a revenge game here against the Mets At $9,900 at Wrigley field in the wind so I would say Paxton over strohman as far as pivots off of Miller But both those guys do great out well if you are looking to get off of Miller Whether it be because of roster rates salary, whatever it may be The Padres are facing trevor williams has done a great job with contact suppression so far this year Which skeptics era pretty reasonable But very few strikeouts minimal ground balls. That's a formula we can stack against the Padres Fully on the table for sacking and I think that if we're looking at a cash game option The Padres are a better cash game option than the Orioles are tonight against nester Cortez Someone on the thought here at the red sox facing Tyler Anderson He is like williams doing a great job with contact suppression Which is why I have the Orioles higher on my tournament list, but Anderson still not back to what he was doing last year I prefer the red sox against our righty and Anderson's lefty, but they do work here So to me, I like the Mariners a lot like the marones a lot then go in Orioles for tournaments Padres and red sox other teams to consider for stacking for today. Let's finish up here the dinger calls and I'm gonna go with the I don't think I've done this I think I've done this call once so far this year But we're doing a double down call for the home run calls the boring one Julia Rodriguez his home run odds are actually kind of long for tonight Which makes sense. He's had seven home runs so far this year. It's not a huge number and Seattle's also not a tremendous place for home runs, but I was looking into Rodriguez wondering why the home runs had not been there so looking into his his game logs and Looking at his his stack cast data across the past two weeks I think he has four barrels and a 65 percent hard hit rate Despite that you can find Rodriguez to hit a home run as long as plus five 25 in some spots I'm not sure why he's plus 360 a fando. I think that makes more sense personally But he's facing wall the chuck who does struggle with hard contact He does let up a lot of balls and play then gets to face EA's bullpen So Julia Rodriguez double dong for tonight the boring among call maybe the double dong asset makes it fun I don't know either way We're going to Julia Rodriguez as the top one the fun one I'm going to go Austin Hayes Hayes similar to Rodriguez not a lot of home runs so far this year But his barrel rate is pretty good He's playing to Yankee stadium Which is always a plus for dingers tends to hit towards the top of the lineup against lefties So I like that quite a bit Hayes plus five 20 fando sports book to go deep You can get six at some spots So as always make sure you shop around but we're going to go Julia Rodriguez twice And Austin Hayes once as the home run calls for today You're on the solo shot. That is all that we got here for today as a reminder Don't forget to check out the pga dfs podcast with branding annula breaking down the charles schwaab challenge Get that wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating and also make sure you follow the podcast If you are watching on youtube hit the thumbs up button there We appreciate you as always and hit subscribe over on the fando youtube page if you've got any questions for me I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fando podcast network at fando podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down thursday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fando podcast network