 Yeah, so they're making political scene. We Democrats Republicans. I know this is not vodka. This is I promise you water Kings down water. I don't drink vodka So we'll talk about a little bit about the American political scene got coming up to the The midterms the midterms in about a month. I guess less than a month. It's November and November 8th or something like that so so less than a month and You know, what's going to happen and what do we kind of want to happen and what is what is the status of politics in in the United States and the case I made during the session at the at the battle of ideas There was really that what has happened in America is the both political parties basically a Very difficult to differentiate when it comes to economic policy That at least at the level of legislation at the big picture level Both political parties now believe that the government has a big role to play in the economy Both political parties now believe that industrial policy is legit We saw a significant number of Republicans voting for the chip bill the bill that tries to pick winners and losers in the chip industry And tries to subsidize American producers of chip technology We're seeing ever-growing Voices both on the left and the right for more government intervention for more government industrial policy for more government control of trade and really when it comes to Economic liberties, there is no longer any political party that is supportive of Economic liberty even the pretense of economic liberty because you could argue that the Republican Party were never for economic liberty But at least they gave it lip service That's gone. They no longer do that And that has a lot to do with the fact that the voters who vote for the Republican Party now are not interested in economic liberty and by the way This is the same The exact same situation I would argue is in the UK and this relates to the whole distrust fiasco And maybe I'll combine things here, but the reality is that the people who elected boss Johnson to up to up You know historic victory and into a majority in the House of Commons Was it two two and a half years ago or three years ago? The voters who voted in man were not voting in somebody and they didn't The intention was not to vote in somebody who was pro free markets. Their intention was to vote somebody who would Regulate control who would Who would centrally plan but who they associated with They kind of cultural policies anti immigration anti Europe and generally a Kind of conservative social agenda Buffering I don't see the buffering Yeah, I don't I mean I am on hotel Wi-Fi So it is a challenge and I noticed the speed today is lower than the speed was on Wednesday So it could be it could be that the hotel is fuller and the more people using the internet right now And that's causing some buffering. I hope not. I hope it doesn't disrupt the show too much Let's see where we Yes, so The constituted vote of in Boris Johnson, it's not exactly a free market constituency and I got a real sense of that On you know, you always if you want to know what's going on in England if you really want to know how people are feeling in England and what they think Probably your best bet is to start a conversation with your taxi driver In in one of your black cabs one of the reasons I don't take uber or I take I don't always take over I usually take over but I also takes taxis is because Taxis are all driven by Brits opinionated Brits Uber are all driven by immigrants now have nothing against immigrants as you know and I actually like chatting with the immigrants But if you really want to know what's going on among the electorate in The UK the people to talk to other taxi drivers like I knew That brexit was gonna pass because every single taxi driver I talked to was pro brexit They were gonna vote for brexit. They were passionate about brexit. They were advocating for it They were arguing for it. They were active in the movement to begin about So so I was in a taxi the other day and here in London And I was talking to the guy and he asked me what I do and I said I give talks about Capitalism, you know, and he said, you know, I'm not he says I'm not for free markets I said, you know, why he says well because because I hate uber. He said, you know Uber is irresponsible. They pay the drivers too little. They exploit their drivers You know, these people barely make a living at uber and I said, you know, what's the alternative if they don't do over Don't they make even a worse living? He didn't have an answer to that. But but you know, he was like I believe in regulations. I'm very poor regulations. You know, I like Boris Johnson's government because they weren't gonna deregulate and and You know, this trust is gonna deregulate. That's really really bad And I don't want taxes cut on the rich and and and so on so very much kind of economic populism very much left of Senate economics and yet on almost every social issue very anti-migration very You know very pro again pro-Brexit very Very pro kind of British culture and what it means to be British and probably on all the other issues that are You know, whether it's trans or whether it's woke or whether it's whatever very conservative And that I think is is the Republican Party or the base of the Republican Party And that I think is the base of the of the conservative party. So when when Liz trust Backs off of tax cuts when Liz trust back off is going to back off of deregulation when Liz trust probably will back off of advocating for fracking in the UK She's doing it We'll talk about markets in a minute, but she's doing it to a large extent to appease her voters her voters don't want This stuff her voters don't want markets. Don't want, you know, individual liberty when it applies to markets They want regulation. They want to stay involved. They want controls and they don't want fracking now You know, we'll get I guess we'll get to Liz trust on the response of the markets and why the markets responded the way they do I think I think Rob has a question about that in the super chat And I think the same thing is true in the United States Today them the Republican base is not a base that believes in free markets I mean, I I already start sensing this in the tea party days when they would say keep your hands, you know We want limited government. We want to shrink government. We want to make government smaller, but keep your hands off my Medicare Keep your hands off of the social programs that I like give your hands off of redistribution of wealth that I like Of course, they don't think of it as redistribution wealth, which is getting our money back. We paid into Medicare Yeah, but you're taking out four times what you put in and And and and what you put in was already spent which are taking out is what other people are being taxed on but it's So what you get in the United States like I think in the UK is a Distrust of free markets and What defines the Republican Party or again the base the voters the passionate voters the excited voters the voters who vote in the primaries What defines them much more of the social pro or the social issues what defines them much more is the anti left What defines so much more is the anti woke anti cancer culture anti CRT What defines so much more is anti at least with the men anti abortion, although I think many Female Republicans actually pro-abortion, even if they won't state it which which is going to be play Which might play havoc for the Republicans in the midterms. We'll see we'll see how big of an issue it becomes but the Basically The point I made at the battle of ideas was there is no voice today no voice in America today, and I think there's two of the UK. There was no voice in politics There's no public voice if you include if you include public intellectuals There's no voice today public or or among the intellectuals or in politics There is an advocate of individualism that's an advocate of individual rights It's an advocate of the original American vision. There's no advocate for this for the for the Declaration of Independence there are many Advocates for all kinds of you know their interpretation of all kinds of ideas of what America stands for but the actual original idea of America the idea of individual rights the idea of freedom of freedom liberty the idea of being left alone The idea of ultimately the idea of free markets, that's what the ideas in America resulted in There are no defenders of that now look you can find a particular congressman here You can find maybe one or two senators Maybe you can find maybe somebody in the House of Commons who believe in this as I said I'm a big fan of camp chemie Bradenock, I think that's how you pronounce it. I Think she's good. She's in the government. She's a minister in the government bit As a movement as a phenomena, they're just no they're no voices for these things and even the voices that exists I'm muted They're not they're not aggressive and they can't defend themselves and one of the big problems Liz trust had when she presented a budget that involves massive tax cuts eliminating the tax cuts on the very wealthy No, no Spending cuts unfortunately, but but a lot of a lot of tax cuts corporate taxes. We're gonna be lower to 19% I mean good stuff any time you lower corporate taxes. That's good stuff. There was a One of the few good things that Donald Trump did was lower the corporate tax She couldn't defend it and Nobody in her party stepped up forward to defend it The the chance of a checker couldn't defend it even though I think he believes in it believed in it He's gone now He couldn't defend it. He could not to kill it the case for it because even if even if they You know Hawken back to a to an era of Thatcher and love of Thatcher and believe the Thatcher's ideas are the right ideas They don't really understand the font that the basis for them the foundations for them and they can't articulate it to an public left and right Who doesn't want to hear it who's not interested in liberty not interested in economic liberty not interested in liberty at all So, you know, I think we've got a system in the United States today with both political both political parties are anti-liberty Both political parties are anti-economic liberty and they're fighting over Control of our minds control of our spirits each of them wants to control the educational institutions so that they can Impose their dogma on us if you read the National Conservatives, you know that they do not like School choice. They do not like the idea of privatizing education. They want to control education They want to get rid of woke, but what do they want to institute instead of woke or Christianity Christian virtues Christian values a Christian interpretation of history So what I left and right today a battling over is Control of our minds control of our spirits both have come to the conclusion Both have come to the conclusion that that's where the battle is and indeed both have come to the conclusion That in order to fully control our spirits because Republicans always wanted to control this to some extent They also need to control our wallets and they are so they all need to also be economically for central planning now You know is an interesting panel we had a kid from a Student from UCLA on the panel who was kind of a centrist who voted for Donald Trump once and didn't vote from the second time We had a British academic who studies American political system We had a journalist who has children in the US and runs a media company, I guess And it was kind of funny was that everybody in the panel was ultimately anti-trump now Almost all the panels anti-trump because of what he did During the election that a post-election that is his refusal to accept the fact that he lost I was the only one who's actually anti-trump because of everything else They were actually kind of particularly the the woman Media company person and the student were actually pro-trump as president just anti-trump as ex-president That was the only one who's anti-trump throughout and I think the the British scholar was probably somewhat of a leftist What what was interesting is how many people in the audience were pro-trump? How much pushback we got from the audience on the fact that we were anti-trump? And how much how much they tried to defend Trump and try to defend Trump's legacy? So that was just interesting. Here's was he were the Brits trying to defend Trump And on this panel in front of this panel Let's see a few more points. I I wanted to make with regard to the actual midterm election. I Think you know the expectation of as a midterm election And the first term of president at least in recent history has been overwhelming victory by the opposition And indeed given inflation at 8.7 percent core inflation at 6.5 percent interest rates going up recession on the horizon and Becoming realer and realer I think to people as the months go by the expectations should be of a massive red wave and and and a really huge Republican victory and It is still possible that That that will happen. I don't think we can rule it out the media has basically ruled it out Most pundits have ruled it out But the fact is that the media and the pundits and the pollsters almost always us underestimate The populist right they all always almost always underestimate the attractiveness of Kind of Republican right wing in other countries Candidates we saw that recently with Bolsonaro in Brazil. You've got a lot more votes a much higher percentage of the vote Even though he didn't win In the first round you got a lot more votes than than any poll predicted that he would get So the left usually does bet worse than what the polls project and the right usually does better than what the polls project so now they some of the polls stirs have Adjusted their polls to reflect this bias in the polls, but overall I think the bias holds and It is still as I say it is possible that there will be a huge sweep by Republicans. I think it's unlikely though. I do think that a Couple of things are hurting Republicans. I'd say First is abortion. I think the issue of abortion is a big issue. It I think it hurts Republicans in a lot of different places and it's not that It just hurts Republicans because it motivates Democrats to come to the polls more It does I think it it because particularly Democratic women young women women who Would probably not vote at all in a mid-term election might vote this time because they view it as a vote on abortion So I think there is more likelihood that that younger people will vote women will vote and Of course Republican women who actually tend to be pro-abortion Or more likely to vote Democratic as a again protest vote against the abortion rulings How big that is I don't think anybody knows I don't know I don't think anybody knows And there's a sense in which that the abortion issues offset by other cultural issues again I don't think there's much difference between the parties when it comes to economics But what there is a difference is when it comes to these cultural issues of example The more the Democrats call talk about CRT the more that is in the headlines the more that is the cancer culture and woke and critical race theory The more that helps Republicans. I mean the average person the middle of the world person who's not that who's not particularly Committed to the Democrats or the Republicans is hates CRT hates woke and And and the more Republicans can associate the Democratic Party with woke culture The more Republicans are likely to win I like you to win so I Don't think there's enough of that To offset the abortion issue, but it's this is so That's gonna someone mitigate the Republican success, but I do think Republicans will win the house They could win the house quite solidly The Senate is a different story see the Senate Republican should win the Senate Easily, right? They should be able to hold Pennsylvania Pennsylvania You know, I think Donald Trump lost Pennsylvania by a very small margin a good candidate who could rally Trump voters plus Voters who wouldn't vote for Trump but generally Republican easily Pennsylvania should have been a Republican state It might not be a dr. Oz that great Republican candidate is Is lagging and and is is does not necessarily look like he's gonna win in Let's see so that's that's a flip. That's a Republican Senate seat that goes Democratic In Wisconsin while I think ultimately the Republicans will win the Senate seat in Wisconsin. They're gonna It's gonna be tight and they're gonna be holding on by by by very slim margins in Georgia Georgia is a Democratic seat. It's a Democratic Senate seat, which is hard to believe the Georgia's Democratic and I'm not sure the Republicans could retake it. Maybe they can't But it's not clear at all that Republicans can take can take Georgia given the candidate that they have so You know, that's still as if if the Democrats hold Georgia That's still a plus one for the Democrats and then you've got Arizona again Arizona should be Republican They should be able to win one of the two Arizona seats should be Republican. Maybe one Democratic one Republican reflects a 50-50 kind of split in Arizona and and maybe some other states but both senators are gonna be Democratic unless Blake masters pull up pulls off a real comeback in the next few weeks, which is possible. I guess so now we have now we have a Again Democrats are still plus one The only seat that it looks like the Republicans in a position to flip from the Democrats is Is Nevada? Nevada is a Democratic senator The Republican looks strong in Nevada Hispanics look like they're more likely to vote a Republican Hispanic vote I've said for a long long time on almost all issues particularly cultural issues is a Republican vote to lose It was always a Republican vote to lose, you know Republicans Unfortunately, it's significantly alienated Significantly alienated their Disconsistency for many years over the issues of immigration, but are now starting to regain them and And bring them bring them into the Republican fold So Nevada because the Hispanic vote shifting to Republicans or more of it shifting to Republicans could be a Republican Senate And then we've got 50 50. We've got a stalemate in the Senate Which means of the Democrats own it because they have the vice president now I Don't mind that that much because Republicans will have the house. You need both houses to get anything done So they will be basically be a stalemate to the Senate to the Democrats and that's all I really want what I want is divided government. I want is is Nothing to get done. I as I've been so said many times The worst government is when they get together and they actually get stuff done The stuff they get done is never friendly to individual rights. It's never friendly to liberty. It's never friendly to us. So I Love divided government. So I think we're gonna get divided coming out of this election. So I'm I hope I hope you vote. I'm not gonna tell you how to vote in the Senate depends on what state you are and Vote whatever whatever you think is right, but in the house I generally would encourage you particularly if it's not a Trumpian candidate to vote Republican because I'd like To see the Republicans at least Win one of the houses it's also always fun to watch the Democrats lose but Yeah, it would be good it would be good for the Republicans to win the house Senate, you know, I think a big part of the Senate is Not so much the abortion issue. It's not the challenge of getting the voters and the right voters and women voting against the Republican And so on I think the main challenge is the quality of the candidates This is Republicans should have been able to nominate somebody better than dr. Oz in Pennsylvania I think they they could have nominated somebody better than Blake masters in Arizona They could have nominated somebody better than than walker in Georgia I think all of those three states should be Republican states. They should be leading in the polls I think with better candidates. They would be leading in a coat polls and again, it's not It's not a question of The actual policies that they advocate for it's a question of their character and their personalities and it's a it's a question of also The fact of how committed they are to Donald Trump and how committed they are to the lie of The elections being stolen It's it's the mindlessness that they project rather than kind of an independence of thought now They won because of Donald Trump They won the primary because of Donald Trump But they might lose the general election because of Donald and this is the thing Donald Trump if he ran today for president would win That Republican primary But I think and I've said this for two years now. I think he's the only Republican who would lose to Joe Biden. I Think in this economic environment any Republican would beat your bite But I'm not sure Donald Trump could beat your bite because of Donald Trump's negatives because a lot of The voters the Donald the Republicans need in order to win a presidential election suburban voters women middle-class voters Won't vote for Trump the vote for a different Republican, but they won't vote for Trump I think I think the scientist has a good chance of beating of beating Biden and I think I think uh, nikki haley has a good chance of I saw a tweet from nikki haley somebody sent me a tweet from nikki haley, which was excellent She stole my lead candidate, but I never get my wishes in terms of Candidate Yeah, mh o8 says clinton was the only democratic would lose to trump. I think that's probably right I think that's probably right God all right before Thank you for listening or watching the iran book show If you'd like to support the show We make it as easy as possible for you to trade with me. 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