 Good morning. Welcome everybody. Let's hope the YouTube is working well today and that people in Discord can also see this. On the Discord we have a dedicated channel so feel free to put any comments in there. I'm just turning off a couple of sound alerts that would otherwise distract from the broadcast. This is a pre-market breakfast broadcast. My name is Moby. I've got a very very quick bio on this page but first of all I'll just do some housekeeping. General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for education purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Quick flip back to my bio just another recap. Yeah I've been around quite a while I've seen a few different things being involved in a few different careers. I still maintain a very very high interest in the markets. I've got a very background in terms of words and numbers and these days I also love programming so I'm involved in the display and automated side of the market. Let me get rid of that. Okay okay let me just blow this up a little bit. Okay the the agenda for today. By the way if there are any comments on the YouTube I can see them and I can talk to those comments if anybody has any questions. So a very quick reference to an update on book map overnight. I don't know whether anybody has relaunched their book map or not since today started but I notice that there has been an SI update, Stops and icebergs indicator update both of the on-chart and the subchart indicators. I'm a big user of those and I will speak to those frequently. It also yeah it also feeds into some of the issues I've been having this week. I think yeah I think anybody that watched the show last week or last Wednesday knows that I had some YouTube glitches and I think one of the things I'd just like to say is that technology issues are part and parcel of this game. I'm extremely lucky in that I have another backup PC it's it's a PC I was working back before it's six years old but it works beautifully. I was able to pick it up plug it back in and separately work on the new build which I've talked about and now that is back up and running and that is what I'm using for the streaming. So it's just another issue that you've got to be aware of in your trading. You've got to have a technology plan and that includes a backup plan. Right okay a quick recap of trading styles. I mentioned on Wednesday that I am a jack of all trades so I'll look at all forms of price action and I'll also look at other information which I can believe will give you some form of edge in the current scenario and that will change rapidly so for all the under 10 years that I've been looking at futures the little edges that I've used to supplement my trading decisions have changed and we'll talk about one of those which is listed their options magnets a little bit later on. Let me just pull up just this is a very basic Wycoff chart. There's no copyright nothing I pulled this one off the internet I've drawn one many a time before for myself. I first came across Wycoff towards the beginning of my trading about nine years ago and it simply is in layman's terms a mechanism for the bigger players in the market to take the price from the lows to the highs and from the highs to the lows. So we're talking about accumulation to take it from the lows to the highs and from the highs to the lows and this feeds into some of the setups that we're going to repeatedly talk about day after day on this webinar. One of the ones I mentioned on Wednesday or it really covers about two or three is getting in into this accumulation phase. We talked about breakout failures where it goes down and then bounces straight back up so they're looking for fuel normally stop runs and trapping sellers before they get a cheap enough price to take it higher. I can reference this this chart again and again just having a quick look see if there's any questions. Okay, but it I would call this a framework of reference framework for how I view the overall market. It is not edge in itself. It is just a map of how bigger players manipulate and manipulates an interesting word but how bigger players move the market from lows to highs and from highs to lows and very much in between. Okay, going back to the agenda volume profile. If I'm actually going to go on to these two charts next which are actually of the European session or the London Open which is at three o'clock New York time just about there and that's the ES I believe and the other one is the NQ. I have my displays of price in Sierra to be limited by digits to keep the columns narrow so I'm just checking exactly which one that one is. Yeah that was that's NQ and that is ES. Okay and I want to interface that with the Wyckoff diagram so that we can see for example if we focus this part of the discussion on the springs or the breakout failures and how in every single session you can get those in NQ and ES. So I have not got my marker on here so I'll just use the cursor. You've got a little breakout failure there. You've got a you've got a climax here if I reference back to the diagram. You've got you've got a little breakout failure here. In fact you've got two. You've got one there, one there. You've got another one just here which is a breakout failure of that one and then they ride it up to the top. In ES it's the same again. You've got multiple breakout failures. The easiest ones are spotter here, here and there's a couple around here and here and something which is very very close and I call it just about the same is a test of the same area or a double bottom in this case. It's the same principle. The bigger players are looking for a cheaper price to get positioned so they can drive the market higher and when we move off to book map we will see that that's effectively what they've been doing for the entire afternoon. Quickly before I do forget let us have a look at the calendar. This is today's calendar and the US core PCE just to remind ourselves that in about 20 minutes we're going to switch to just focusing on the live pricing action and observing not trading just observing the level of volatility that should come in at 830. So is that right? Okay let me just move on to the next one which I want to show you about. It's another screenshot before we go on and start dragging around on book map. You will often hear me talk about why I believe it's a good idea to have the ability to zoom in and out quickly on book map. One of the the main reasons that I upgraded my computer and primarily the memory and the graphics card was that the previous build was stuttering when I wanted to drag back and zoom out and zoom in. So here we've got we've got NQ and ES in the Asian session so you can see the time there that's 11 p.m. at night New York time and the NQ we'll just start talking about that as a good example of why it's good to use book map both from a very very zoomed-in micro perspective and also in the Globex session from a zoomed-out perspective just to see where the bigger players manipulating the pressure and by the pressure and the magnetism of the market. So you can see here they added 175 in NQ at this level which is about 15, 5, 6, 5, 15, 5, 6, 0 if I can read that correctly just blow that up yeah 15, 5, 6, 5, okay they set that as the reference point it was tested once and they moved away but where did they come back to to get their fuel for the current driver and as I speak we're we're at the Globex high either high of the overnight session they came straight back to that resting liquidity you cannot tell from the screenshot and unfortunately it was on my old computer before I plugged in my new one later today whether that was actually filled or not I'm talking about this this liquidity of about 105, 200 contracts but that was the price that they wanted to get in on and if we go back to the Wycoff picture they basically wanted to drive it back down to here which is their accumulation zone to drive it back up to there. What will happen at 830 is anybody's guess and we're not here to predict the future but it's just interesting to use this and then reference what we see in book map and if we switch over to ES and exactly the same time period I think I may have this zoomed out more. What's interesting here apart from this resting liquidity which is very similar to the one we saw in NQ is where they started placing the liquidity further out for future reference so as they moved higher here they placed that liquidity there so if you had zoomed out you'd have been able to see that level there at 4580 which has been tested so many times in the last week so you know that's an important volume profile level and you know we can get back back to that when I pull over a Sierra volume profile chart but one of the beauties of Globex trading is that some of these levels are much much clearer and certainly in the way that they approach them or quickly approach them in the Globex session than in the RTH session so in the RTH session for example that might be a perfectly valid level you know magnetic level saying they want to drive it up to that price but you might get so much action bouncing up down up down up down up down whereas in Globex I mean this is a relatively short period of time between the time they got fuelled up here and they hit that level there and then this other level here which is getting towards the ramp number at 460 that was taken out in Europe but it's just interesting I just thought a zoomed out picture to show you how useful the resting liquidity levels can be in ES might might be good um aha I've got a comment thanks Michael yeah I'm not on my own normal microphone Michael's just pointed out that I may have some sibilance or or pops on this microphone I'll just move it away a little bit I'm on my headset I do have what I think is got a nice microphone but I I'm not 100 percent certain that it's it's correctly set up for a streaming session I'll be back on that next week but for for this purpose I'm just using headset a Plantronics headset which hopefully is relatively loud and clear but thanks for the comment Michael I've moved it a little bit further away from my mouth and hopefully there's less sibilance okay um yeah I I I just wanted to to show that and I'm going to drag in and before we really do focus on book map let me see if I can drag it in I'm going to drag in a volume profile chart and see if we can just break down this session um and why why this relates back to the Wycoff chart that we looked at a little bit earlier so in the old Wycoff terminology you could consider that as a selling climax and on the volume profile it's um it's a it's a strong low I'd call it there are many different terms that people use for a low with a very very thin wick but strong low as opposed to poor low is one terminology that I do use and that can often mean that it will not be revisited in the very very near future although nothing is stopping it coming back later um but it's just interesting seeing how this is broken up and how that then turns into a profile what I'm trying to say is that there is a tremendous overlap between supply and demand or Wycoff and volume profile um I'd refer you all to my colleague Tom if you want to get deeply involved in volume profile but I just want to point out that it is something that I do think is useful and I do use in all my trading and that's why that chart has been built so it's it's both a market profile and a volume profile chart but that is not the purpose of this webinar I just wanted to point out the overlap between the two okay and it might be worth at this point let's have a look now we'll come back to that towards the end just pulling up the markets before we get towards 8 30 we're at 15 minutes in now um what I've got over here and I mentioned this in the first webinar that I jointly did with Bruce a couple of weeks ago before I was traveling this is a three minute chart of ES and NQ on the exactly the same time frame and zoomed out to exactly the same level um the shaded areas are just V-wap so if I just zoomed out there's V-wap there is a black line and that's the first standard deviation second standard deviation and third standard deviation in ever degreasing shades of gray and it's not because I think wow yeah V-wap is a magic level and we're going to take a long in in ES just there that is not why they're there it is just an approximation of current value in the intraday session in my own analysis I look at volume or value after the end of the session so I need a proxy for what may be forming as value during this session lots of people have different views that's just one and it's not something that I invented in fact most of what you use in your trading will not be what you invent it will be a synopsis of how other people trade and taking the best bits that you can apply with your own style in that trading so in other words this is just a simple three minutes chart just to give me context and perspective when we zoom in on to the ES and NQ charts okay we've got exactly the same tools that we have the other day but everything is now working as it should if we zoom out in ES and let's have a look just to describe what I was talking about I've only got just before the London Open here something around about 2am of action on this ES chart but you can see if I did zoom the vertical column out a bit and drag this up a bit you can see that effectively we've been driving up and in volume profile terms we've been filling in the rather thin profile of the breakdown moved during the RTH session and we're almost back at the settlement from two days ago so yeah I just want to describe that's how I start talking about bookmap and relating back to the other things that I see in GlobeX I'm always always interested in this heavy magnetic liquidity I call it magnetic because in GlobeX that's more often than not that's what it does the resting liquidity attracts the larger players or the algos because they know that they can transact business there this isn't necessarily the case in RTH it also acts as quite often a repulsion on first approach if it doesn't get filled and here you can see the repulsion and here on the second or third it begins to eat through it okay right so it appears that they have been driving back up towards previous value as we approach the 830 news and as I said we're not going to we are not going to trade that we're just going to observe that the other thing I wanted to talk about that I didn't really get across because of the technical issues in the previous session was to describe in a slightly better fashion how I view what is essentially a casino playing out and how we participate if we do want to participate on more than a very short-term basis we can go for our big big winners we can go for a very very wide stops but in my opinion that is not going to give you a long trading career and one of the things I want to harp about and the absolute principle or the core backbone of the trading that's going to be discussed in this webinar is the notion of equal sized losses and by that I mean equal sized dollar losses so the notion that when we start talking about trades it every single time I talk about a potential setup it is a 50-50 proposition in regards to that individual setup it is irrelevant how many times something very very similar or something that looks very very similar has worked in the past that individual trade is a 50-50 and that's why I drew this diagram just to explain how Edge works and I've looked at it both in terms of the second column mechanism for getting Edge and the third column so just to recap this this is a very small sample size this is 10 equal sized losers and we can approximate we can just say it's 10 losers of 10 dollars each so that's 100 dollars lost you can build it in with micro so that you know commission is fairly harmless in this analysis or you can you can bake it into how you trade one mechanism that I started off early in my career was a high win rate so that I was looking for something like a 70% win rate and if you focus on that you're more focused on the winners than you are actually getting the true value out of the trade so more often than not you'll find yourself being impelled by the desire to win to cut your winners at about one hour or even less sometimes which means that you have to have a very very high win rate and you have to have an incredible level of discipline that if you have one trade which or series of trade say three or four which just go against your one two three four that you still have the patience and the discipline on the very next trade to take the equal size loss and not let that loss become a three hour or a four hour or five hour so if you do that and you do have that level of patience and discipline that is a form of edge which simply is you have more wins and losses and the other one which is where we'll be aiming our discussion is having the ability with equal size losses but not equal sized winners so the paramount rule it doesn't always apply sometimes you'll see something in book map which tells you you've got to get out of a trade now because for example some big big players come in and it makes a lot of sense to ditch that but the paramount rule is that you should not take a trade less than one hour if you apply this methodology and with the same number of losses i.e. 10 winners you should have on average something slightly bigger than one so that despite having only a 50% win rate you're well ahead in terms of edge and again we're taking into account commission but that's just something i want to explain a bit better than i did the other day okay right okay bit um falling very far off touch very very briefly on i went half on it too much sorry i'm just dragging that away options magnets okay um i just wanted to i'll just drag it in again um let me just drag that volume profile shot in again okay i've got a tool i'm not going to talk about the vendor but one of the things that i do look at and this is one of various things that i look at in terms of where are they interesting getting priced to i look at volume profile i look at price action i look at supply and demand i do look at some of this zero dte options expiry so i do have levels here on this chart which will start to populate at the rth open 930 the we're talking about these dots here which are on different levels if i zoomed onto to the vertical axis you can see them a little bit easier um they're semi irrelevant for globe x what i find to be more useful for globe x is settlement and um you know volume profile you know high volume profile nodes and low volume profile nodes but i do have them there from the previous day but i do find um that on certain days again it's nothing as a hundred percent but on certain days it's quite useful to have in conjunction with book map seeing where where those levels are populating in terms of options purchasing because that that is often rather large sums of money to get the options activity at those levels okay we are coming up to on the clock 8 24 so we have six minutes until um until the marked open so yeah i was going to quickly run through the london open so let's have a quick look through that so in my in my terminology the london open really opens at the dax open the dax has a small pre-market session which is a few minutes before 2am new york time i'm talking um talking new york summer time here so 2am east eastern time um and the real open starts at 3am which is just there okay and if we zoom back out to what was the scenario now i actually move that all the way out to the beginning of this chart and drag it right out so we can see what the picture was an hour before the london open and by picture i'm just referencing the liquidity okay um we've got some resting liquidity below at 50 4550 i tend to discount the the truthfulness meaningfulness weight whatever word you wish to choose of heavy resting liquidity at a round number and by round number i mean 50s and 100s um in globe x and pre-market so that i take with a pinch of salt but what i do see there is a large large band of liquidity up above and in enqueue if we go back to about the same period and drag it back because i think it's quite useful to look at both them together even if you have zero interest in trading enqueue because it's a volatile beast and it's a different risk management proposition excuse me i'm just trying to drag it across come on okay it's close enough okay right um in enqueue i wouldn't say that um hold on yeah you've got this resting liquidity the just above from 2am through to 3am it's a little bit harder to see on this one unless i drag it back out yep sorry that's a bit easier to see isn't it okay that's a lot easier to see right so we've got some interesting bands of liquidity in enqueue and not and they're not at round numbers they add to the interest you've got this one at 15660 which has been stable throughout the period of this charts history and again i apologize that this doesn't go back through the asian session you've got another one at 670 and you've got another one that came in a bit flickering but came in and was relatively steady it's 678 um and below you didn't have much you had this wobble liquidity which is just market makers or sorry which may be or is most likely to be market makers on either edge of price at this current moment in time but you had resting liquidity clearly above um when you've got that that is a hint again nothing's nothing is for certain but it's a hint that they may want to go up and tag those resting liquidity levels and that is a feature to interpret what you might then see in the price action in es at the london open so when you've got these levels you know um sure you don't want to trade enqueue have a look and and see if you can get any long setups of your own volitional making in es knowing that enqueue can often drive the market in eth again it can be either es or enqueue that leads but one of them is likely to lead the other it is often enqueue and um yeah that's that's one of the ways in which i use that resting liquidity as it happens in this case it did drive up but um yeah it's just it's just a way of reading the market so the message there is you look at the two in tandem and see what are the clearest bits of information that you're getting from either or both of those markets that you can use in the market that you wish to trade okay the clock is saying eight twenty eight and forty seconds so we've got about a minute and a half before i'm just going to turn on the financial news feed and see if we can hear it as the uspce is released so we should move on to es we should zoom into the vertical column one minute remaining i'll be leading with the uspce price index year over year right so we're just going to have that on the background i will turn it off just after eight thirty it's just so that we can hear it as it's released and observe the action and we'll zoom right in so we're into the thirty second splits on the nq by 56 stop and i'm going to turn on the market pulse in fact i think i've got it on it's just been quite quiet quite surprisingly quiet for years i have no other market pulse um vocals on at the moment or audio on at the moment so as we approach we've got more liquidity above but we also know that we are approaching the value that we broke down from ten seconds okay let's just have a look still waiting on the pc numbers three percent three percent as expected month over month at zero spot two percent zero spot two percent as expected consumer spending month over month at zero spot five percent zero spot five percent higher than forecast zero spot four percent while the core pc year over year at four spot one percent four spot one percent that's lower than forecast four spot two percent core pc e month over month at zero spot two percent zero spot two percent as expected okay i'll turn that off now i've got some friends at financial juice and they will not mind me having done that by the way i do i do use that service every day so that's one of the things that will come across on this webinar that i use various bits of information i use i don't trade news as such but i unless it's something something awful in terms of very very bad news in the market um which happens in globe x and they will likely give me a follow-through after a first breakout um but it's something that i think is necessary to have some information on um i do think the economic releases are vital so you know when the volatility will occur but i do not predict which way they are going to go okay so just observing that action we have the liquidity above in es and the first thing that happened which seemed to be prior to the release of the pc numbers was the tag of the liquidity at four five nine four seventy five or four nine four five nine five and then a quick rejection or a stop run of 46 there it's quite nice the um on es at this time of the day which is you know the eight till nine am um sequence is the market pulse highs and lows you know the greens and reds above 75 or below minus 75 percent tend to be quite useful again that's not her recommendation to take a trade based on the market pulse extremes i'm just saying that they can elucidate um the highs or lows in instantaneous price action or momentary price action okay so after that stop run down which took out some late buyers we have not been able to approach that low again so that low there which after the stop runs a very small stop run 50 um four five nine one yeah we are leaving that alone and in queue yeah in queue they are trying to support with liquidity there and pushed through to the two liquidity levels above so it looks like the prior auction or the auction prior to the release of the economic data is continuing at this moment but be aware that the first move can often be the wrong move on these economic releases and that might be a reason why you would or would not trade them in fact the um three-minute charts over here so let's pray the nice easy reference point to have a look at it uh at this point um hey tom has anybody got any questions okay i'm just going to go back to that channel and just double check there okay on we go right we've done the um recap of what edge is we've done our live observation of the in queue and i i welcome people to um provide suggestions since we are just launching this breakfast show and i'm building the agenda and this is really the first week i'm back if anybody's wondering where i've been i've been overseas visiting family and hiking through the austrian alps which is a very very pleasant change from sitting or standing at a computer terminal um but if anybody has any suggestions on what they'd like the content for this to cover especially i mean if you want me to go into much greater depth on wike off and exactly how you might want to use bookmap on that or you you want some more discussion on volume profile in the global accession and how um you relate that back to the volume profile of the previous few sessions um yeah feel free and i will take all comments on board and we can tailor the content accordingly okay i think as i mentioned i am not a specialist or a one-trick pony etc i like looking at lots of ways in which you can analyze the price action and i also look at algorithmic methods as well for automated entries and exits so um i'm very open to discussing different things that i do um i do think wike off is a great reference point but it is certainly not the be all and end all and it is not in itself a recipe for success um i think i've seen numerous courses out there on supply and demand and they do tend to focus more on the instances of price action which works perfectly per supply and demand rules rather than the ones that don't um one of the reasons why i think something like bookmap is excellent is because it improves the odds so say you are a supply and demand trader or you are a pure volume profile trader having the kind of action in here um it helps um i mean we talked the other day about this the liquidity markers and and again this is something that is really really useful in the global accession so you know we can see i mean even here we can see when they don't actually need the the numbers you hear me sometimes you can just see it through through the coloration of the heat map you can see when they put the pressure on to drive price up when they put when they take it off but having the numbers does help um the stock runs tend to be really really quite good and the icebergs especially in e s in globe x can be excellent um i said the other day and i say it again i find the icebergs in the rth session not to be as clear or they don't give you the same level of bias in one direction or over another just because you see a hundred by ice does not mean that price is likely to go up it is just a point of interest which can then create a line in the sand okay back to watching price action so we've got plenty of liquidity here again i'd i'd discount the the round number but i but when i do see that then i do have a look at where we are in relation to key levels so i my voice may have just rifted off because i was just looking at some of the key levels above um up above the four six hundred one of the things that i look at is last week's high and low okay yep g i am sorry i think yeah it's your name g okay g with the wheel i do like your avatar that's cool yeah sure i'm very happy to talk about volume profile uh and how i use it and um yeah and just stressing again whilst i do not have longer term volume profiles drawn in the bookmap columns i am using it and i'm also using this information in the columns um and i repeat again one of the things that i said the other day you know when you've let me just double check this one um when you've got buyers or sellers or sorry buyers and sellers at a pivot you know are you swing low or swing high a meaningful swing high or swing low i'm interested because that in volume profile terms could also mean a poor high or low which needs to be tested or flushed out or has the potential for them to flush to get extra stops and such extra fuel to go in whichever direction they want to go in so that is it's a volume profile type piece of data for me you know the fact that you've got 84 sellers and 14 buyers um at this level of 455-1950 um just in my eyes you've got some probability and again you can it's impossible to quantify this particular probability you've got some probability and it's not a bad probability that they will come down and retest that it might not happen before 930 but there there is a good chance that and you then take that information you look at your three-minute chart you look at your volume profile chart let's have a look where are we this it's this one 459-1950 and sorry i'm looking i'm looking at sierra and trading at the same time yeah so that was just the low flush after the the newsprint so yeah in volume profile terms yeah that could be labeled as you know you could you could have two labels they could have the scene of the crime being here where the actual news hit when that was the first flush down and the second one which was a flush of the flush so you know it might well be worth marking because it looks like there may be a capacity to flush even more since they're both buyers and sellers wishing to participate at that price level okay oh we've got an ice something to talk about when i've just knocked the term ice no i've actually um i've actually said that ice in in es in globex is is good i've knocked it in rth um this number is really really small 17 okay we've probably got something bigger than that in nq if we scroll back not that i can see but uh 17 it's insignificant and um it's been taken away already so it's um it's something i said the other day i like to see the information but i place no reliance on it unless it becomes significant and an ice of 17 sellers is not significant in es at any time of the day unless our relative volume was one percent and that's something else that i do also look at um you know i've got various compilations of statistics that i look at and one of them that i have to hand at all times is relative volume again it's not my concept i didn't invent it i i've just created a an iteration of it in sierra that works for me so that at this time of the day from 1800 new york time to now i can see that es has a relative volume of 185 vis-a-vis the last 10 business days uh last 10 trading days so i just know in that when i look at that number of relative volume that the market is active and that it is in a state where i may be able to both scalp and get little swing opportunities in in globe x it's it's something that if it was say at 60 percent in the asian session um unless we had a remarkable price action i'd want to stay well clear because one of the things you do not want to do is burn your capital out i waste your capital on poor trading conditions because that is the easiest way just to give your money to market makers to algos whatever you want to call them and then kill your trading career because you do not have the funds when the good price action comes around okay so zooming back out again if we look underneath uh this is es there's nothing below i mean we can we can make this a little bit more a little bit darker we've got nothing below that reattracts them at the moment so that is interesting information to me especially before 9 a.m new york time so at the moment you know i have one of the thoughts that's going through my head is that is magnetic and they are slowly drawing price towards it and the nothing that happened during the economic release at 8 30 has changed that then i'm going across and looking at the volume profile and seeing at 459 425 what is above that in the last few volume profile sessions so is there something that they might want to tag quickly or is it just a grind up back to where the previous previous value was and if i look at uh where i am i can see value i can't really see much or anything really significant in terms of a nice distribution until about 1050 1075 that's 4 6 10 50 4 6 10 75 up above so you know one of the volume profile scenarios that will go dot my head is that during this session we're going to grind up provided they get sellers trapped enough to give them the fuel to go upwards towards the liquidity um which is semi magnetic above at this band here up to 4600 let me drag it down for um when i look at liquidity you can't just look at the colors in book map they are beautiful they are helpful but you have to look at the quantity numbers um i know in my order book column i've just got numbers and some people have the the profile the shape of the profile as well i am happy with the coloration on the heat map but what i do want to see is what is that number so it's 215 is that significant how do you know for that significant well you've got to trade quite a few sessions you've got to trade this particular period this 8 to 9 30 a.m breakfast period to know whether or not it is you can look at the relative volume you've got to look at any prevailing news you've got to be aware of you know the current trend and i discussed this the other day that on the daily we are in a very very strong uptrend which got stronger and we have not broken the strongest daily trend line up so we're in a strong uptrend we're in a theoretical AI bubble the biggest tech stocks have been driving the market up that's the biggest five have been driving the market up and looking across our correlations for today what am i saying i'm seeing that the us dollar is going down slightly i'm seeing that the asian equities went up significantly china especially i see the dax went up i see bitcoin went up a little bit which is also something that has a positive correlation it can be a weak correlation but a positive correlation with with the nasdaq i can see the oil is drifting around that gold is strongly up which correlates with the us dollar being down and on the on the specific other currencies that heavily current trade currencies against the us i can see that the pound is the strongest of the the four majors that i look at against the the us dollar being the yen the euro the pound and the australian and i mentioned again the other day that the pound is one that i often have in trading view as a correlation chart by correlation i mean something a very very simple chart they won't have the view up shaded bands but just something like a one minute or a three minute of something that has a relatively strong correlation with the equity indices okay let us go back to this action yeah it's relatively slow which it does surprise me after an economic economic release of such significance that not much is happening one of the reasons why i do tend to look at nasdaq in the global accession is because the action is a little bit more violent there is a little bit more to trade obviously there is a larger chance that you will be stopped at pretty darn quickly but there is also a chance that you'll get to your one r your two or maybe your three r and when i talk about one r two on three r i am talking about scaling and it's again something that i'm happy to discuss another time i strongly believe that scaling is linked to randomness so that if you believe in scaling you are accepting to some extent the randomness of the markets in the sense that you cannot predict what is going to happen next i hear a lot of people and you know they may be fabulous fabulous traders you know saying they will not scale out or they will not scale out until they've got to three r or four r or five r or whatever but i don't know what's going to happen next i've done this for quite a while and i make absolutely no predictions about what's going to happen next i'm saying that if if the market gives me money which according to a mathematical model will give me an age over time and i did a very simplified grid of that a little bit earlier in this session then why shouldn't i scale out you know why wouldn't you if the mathematical odds are saying over time that will make edge the other reason why you'd think about trading nasdaq is because you're going to get more repetitions you know if your edge is based on say an edge let's just bring that diagram back in again let me just bring it back in if this is 10 10 losses and 10 winners and that gives you that edge there which is just that bit there right and nasdaq gives you 50 of those opportunities or 100 of those opportunities in globe x and es gives you three or four which one are you going to take if you're taking a very mathematical approach to edge in the markets um in my view you might take nq over es but it's just a personal opinion um again it's got a completely different risk appetite um and um i'm going to quickly have a look at nq because i just noticed that they have had a miniature stop run towards a sell ice and the the action has changed i don't know if you you can see that it's quite clearly changed at the moment i'm just trying to see if there i know they've strengthened the liquidity there but i was just seeing if they if this was going to be a strong push down or not yeah it's got a nice little push down um having these low value set for the stop icebergs indicators on nq seems to be a good idea to me and this is a quite a good illustration of it um say you use this as your stops and icebergs and this is a very low setting you can set it to whatever you want and i'm happy to do screenshots of my settings in due course but that there of seven and three a seven stop run yeah it looks absolutely insignificant that number there seven but we knew that the context which we discussed a few minutes ago was that the es liquidity the magnetic liquidity was above so a stop a sell stop run of any significance was a potential buy opportunity in nasdaq we also had this little resting liquidity here which wants to draw your attention to a 26 26 is a lot more significant in nq than 17 is an es so this is a target in the sense that the algos and market makers believe or some of them will probably know that the business can be transacted at this price level which is 15 seven three two 50 um so a stop run down there a clear target if you were going to take a trade it is a little spring a breakout failure to the downside that we've discussed um what is the risk the risk in this session should not be too high unless it's a very very volatile price action session so far from the action that we've been looking at it is not very volatile it has not looked as if it's very volatile so you're looking at a tight stop so that is your trigger and that was your target i'm not saying that it will get to the target i don't predict anything at all but i'm saying that uh you get in you know you may be getting a market limit whatever uh a market stop order um but your risk is about four or five points and you're getting in somewhere there so you magically got in at 24 and you had a stop at 19 and you're saying to me how can i magically set the stop correctly well one of the things that you can do programmatically is have a volatility based stop it's one of the things that i do believe in and again i'm happy to talk about in due course um so that your stop is always calculated based on volatility um that volatility can be related to anything can be related to atr it can be related to um atr plus volume so it can be a volume based volatility and that your your ultimate target for such a trade would be at that um resting iceberg whether it'll get there now or whether it's going to go and flush down below first i do not know but i'm saying that say you got in magically at the 24 level um yeah that is a target of eight and a bit uh um with a four point stop yep and the four point stop is below that pivot as well um so that that is a potential two r trade um it looks like you know at this stage that it got close but no cigar so that if you hadn't scaled you know maybe you'd set your scales up so you'd take at least something off at one r then you know if you'd got in there and you'd taken off your scales yeah you would have you would have either scaled there or scaled there um and and what you do at that point you know whether you then leave your stops exactly where they are whether you move them do whatever that is something that you have to decide you know whether it's discretionary whether it's it's done programmatically it's something that you have to decide during the course of your trading career um i'm just describing a a potential target there based on the fact that it is likely that business can be conducted at 50 d 250 in a rising market with magnetic liquidity in es above and you know again what is that magnetic liquidity you know we reference both the charts and as i said if i'm not streaming i'll have these side by side not inside the same book map window um so you know you'd have scaled there um your stop was about 20 you would not have been stopped at so far doesn't mean you won't be stopped at you would have got very very very close maybe you'd have closed this trade out maybe you'd held it um but it's just just an example of um the potential for using nasdaq you know that to me i mean close enough is good enough for me so yeah the fact that it's gone straight through and it's gone even higher to me does not matter right i said that was my ultimate target look i'm into mathematical trading models that that have edge over time i'm not into swinging for a home run so you know the fact that this now yeah if you're in at 20 with 24 with a four point stop you know you 24 14 16 yes you could have been four r straight up with that beautiful um stop run continuation through that iceberg um by by reference stop stop ice stop run i'm talking about the 18 stop there and then the continuation onwards and in the es it's grinding it's grinding slowly but surely uh and we have some theories some rationales why they don't have to be true none of what you actually um none of what you actually analyze has to be true it just has to be exercised in a process which is in accordance with a model that gives you mathematical edge so in other words you can be as wrong as many times as your model allows over the course of a series of trades okay let me just go back and see if there are any more questions because i haven't really gone back i don't know if we we don't really have many people in the discord room and we've got 14 in the youtube room okay all right okay um let's go back to the calendar let's have a look at the calendar there we go let me just bring that back in zoom back in okay so we've had the eight this is just me winding down as we're approaching nine o'clock um we've had the 830 news it really wasn't much that happened on the back of it it's a continuation of the auction up and the only other economic release of any significance the red lightning ones is the umich the university of michigan's sentiment at 10 a.m eastern but it should be an interesting session we had a breakdown yesterday it could be a false breakdown they could continue it down but it's interesting that they've used the um the european session the post london open session to drive the market back up to where it broke down from value yesterday uh let's have a look how is nq going okay so we've got this liquidity here let's just look back on that so if we had the news at 830 this liquidity was in place a way before then that was in place before the london open so that's true resting liquidity unfortunately it's at the 50s the round numbers so it's something that i can't put that much weight on but the fact that it's steady and that we're driving towards it it becomes significant at the closer we get to it you know at some point you know if it bounces and bounces and then it keeps going towards it you have to start putting some significance on it because if it goes up it's it's going to smash through it it's not something that i will view in isolation and say it has magnetism because often you'll see a great big fat resting liquidity at a random below 50 or 100 and it never goes anywhere near it um so it's the other resting liquidities that attract my attention it's also quite interesting that we almost got there and we have turned around temporarily okay just flick back to yes and cognizant of the time as well because i'm approaching my last minute so i want to i don't know i wouldn't leave people enthused that you know this is a great tool i hope you know we can have some really good discussions or i can provide some you know information that might be of use to people in a breakfast session in the coming weeks but i welcome all feedback you know whether you watch this this broadcast live or you watch it after the fact um and you saw my thoughts on why called following profile and trading in the nasdaq in the pre-market session but um yeah it does look like es is grinding grinding back towards yesterday's breakdown of value and nothing seems to be stopping it just yet just seeing how many have traded at the high 52 okay we are we have just taken out the high that was made just after the news release it'd be quite interesting to see whether yeah they don't look like they're stopping that would have been an interesting place for a short but it does not look like it wants to go down just yet we had no rejection but again that doesn't mean that it won't anyway thank you very much for watching with me